@RaleighPartners Avatar @RaleighPartners Raleigh Partners

Raleigh Partners posts on X about $csu, $rop, asml, investment the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 40.2% stocks 34.31% technology brands 23.53% currencies 7.84% cryptocurrencies 1.96% social networks 1.96% gaming 0.98%

Social topic influence $csu 14.71%, $rop 13.73%, asml 5.88%, investment 4.9%, stocks 4.9%, $asml 4.9%, private equity 2.94%, ai 2.94%, $msft 2.94%, $toi 2.94%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @evrgn11112231 @atelicinvest @curiousinves @southernvalue95 @kairospraxis @3plantey2 @madcap_cap @servowealth @hmlcompounder @hedgie007 @rihardjarc @jukan05 @koyfincharts @tbu12345678 @tmtmoats @boringbiz @bruss008 @ccvisuals @qualityinvest5 @stockthoughts81

Top assets mentioned Roper Technologies Inc (ROP) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) 4 (FOUR) Global Payments Inc (GPN) Procore Technologies, Inc. (PCOR) KKR & Co, Inc. (KKR) O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Metadium (META) Factset Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) Loar Holdings Inc (LOAR) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Now Coin (NOW) American Tower Corp (AMT) Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Moody's Corporation (MCO) Merit Circle (MC) AppFolio, Inc. Class A (APPF) Veeva Systems, Inc. (VEEV) SpaceN (SN) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) Copart, Inc. (CPRT) Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO) IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Verisign, Inc. (VRSN) Netflix Inc (NFLX) Brookfield Corporation (BN) Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS) Mastercard, Inc. (MA) TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@ServoWealth @HML_Compounder Yeah but you could say the same thing about the value factor"
X Link 2024-01-11T02:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@hedgie007 Agreed. For what it's worth consensus estimates has it doing closer to 20% CAGR w/ LDD normalized earnings growth"
X Link 2025-01-02T22:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$ROP vs. SaaS Private Equity "We're doing $5B/year in capital deployment. [--] years from now it's $10B. It's the equivalent of running a $20B-$30B private equity firm in terms of scale. It's a drop in the bucket in terms of the assets that are in the marketplace.""
X Link 2025-11-19T18:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ROP "The compounding nature of the numerator is better than the denominator. Its just straight math. Were super active on the M&A front. were really becoming a buyer of choice both for the CEOs of companies and also the private equity sellers." $ROP vs. SaaS Private Equity "We're doing $5B/year in capital deployment. [--] years from now it's $10B. It's the equivalent of running a $20B-$30B private equity firm in terms of scale. It's a drop in the bucket in terms of the assets that are in the marketplace." $ROP vs. SaaS Private Equity "We're doing $5B/year in capital deployment. [--] years from now"
X Link 2025-11-19T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$CSU & VMS bulls -- what's the view on how AI changes the M&A equation Seems lotta people here focus on the disruption of current holdings but the deployment implications are more interesting: 1) With software IPOs potentially challenged $CSU / $ROP become prime liquidity options for PE exits 2) AI lowers coding costs so shouldn't the pool of small VMS targets expand significantly https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012514846760165775 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012514846760165775"
X Link 2026-01-17T13:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ROP Q4 [----] First Look - Q4 revenue decelerated to 10% YoY from 14% YoY in Q3. Combo of zero M&A deals and softer organic growth (4% YoY vs. 6% in Q3). - Repurchased 1% of shares. Likely tactical not a shift in M&A strategy but depends on current valuation vs. M&A targets. Extrapolating the buyback forward implies a 5% shareholder return (4% annualized buyback + 1% dividend yield). Effectively a 90% payout ratio on 18x normalized P/FCF. - [----] guidance at 5-6% organic growth and 8% total growth. Neptune tariffs and Deltek GovCon delays are normalizing; assuming a stable (but likely not fully"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@RihardJarc @jukan05 The last time $MSFT traded at the same multiple as the S&P [---] was 2015"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Thinking about this from the allocator side that uses both platforms. Id love for someone to vibe code a Morningstar Direct alternative but Im not sure anyone can match their historical holdings data. That moat keeps a lot of users stuck. I also think platforms like Koyfin and TIKR (which solve the data issue via CapIQ feeds) could accelerate the disruption of $FDS. Would be cool if @KoyfinCharts could chime in on the nuances of someone vibe coding a competitor or how AI might be helping them catch up and ship faster. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019570232914841931"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Baron Global Advantage Fund on initiating $LOAR - 85% proprietary aerospace parts - 50% revenue from high-margin aftermarket - High barriers to entry + pricing power - 10% organic rev growth / 15% EBITDA - Proven M&A strategy (17 deals in [--] yrs) - Long runway to compound at mid-teens rate https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1957443116157559286 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1957443116157559286"
X Link 2025-08-18T14:03Z [----] followers, 14.6K engagements

"$FOUR short interest 20% vs. $GPN at only 3%"
X Link 2025-12-18T11:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Akre has underperformed the S&P [---] since inception. Investing is tough"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:35Z [----] followers, 25.9K engagements

"Akre initiated positions in $CRM and $NOW $CSU and $TOI unchanged"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:23Z [----] followers, 20.2K engagements

"Constellation Software $CSU acquisition funnel. Do these estimates look roughly right [--]. 60K-plus VMS opportunities [--]. 36K (60%) take a call w/ Biz Dev [--]. 5.4K (15%) then enter an NDA [--]. 1.4K (25%) non-binding indication of interest from CSI [--]. [---] (20%) targets accept the terms [--]. [---] (85%) deal closes"
X Link 2025-05-05T11:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Excellent primer on Constellation Software $CSU from the student fund at Western University https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5cf45640c775120001d4c3cc/t/6726b003d1c14806cea8fede/1730588677189/CSU_TMT_vF.pdf https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5cf45640c775120001d4c3cc/t/6726b003d1c14806cea8fede/1730588677189/CSU_TMT_vF.pdf"
X Link 2025-05-05T12:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"What's the easiest way to manually calculate idiosyncratic risk for personal accounts Should I just run a multi-factor regression on a bunch of iShares ETFs and see where the loadings end up I am trying to get a better sense for how much of my personal performance is merely factor loadings (+4.3% YTD vs. S&P [---] -3.3%). I wonder/suspect it's mostly momentum and/or quality related"
X Link 2025-05-09T12:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TBU12345678 I briefly looked at the $PCOR story a year ago. Tooey seemed like a fine guy. But curious why does the street hate Howard"
X Link 2025-05-09T18:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$CSU M&A only contributed 13% YoY revenue growth in Q1 [----] Slowest M&A contribution to revenue growth since Q4 2020"
X Link 2025-05-12T22:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@TMTMoats Looks like the ticker is $RW. Never met Joseph but enjoy his work and will patiently wait for him to go live"
X Link 2025-05-14T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@BoringBiz_ Fund of fund allocator due diligence roles"
X Link 2025-05-20T01:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@BRuss008 @CCVisuals_ @QualityInvest5 by adding more services to the membership. Similar to Amazon Prime. Auto services insurance travel benefits etc"
X Link 2025-05-26T00:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Greenhaven Capital on $KKR 59% of all private-equity fundraising in [----] went to the [--] largest asset managers . up from 20% in [----] KKR will outlast all of us with their perpetual capital"
X Link 2025-05-31T12:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Akre trimming $AMT $KKR and $MCO Adding shares of $ABNB and $MC / $LVMHF"
X Link 2025-06-04T15:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Anyone know why some vertical SaaS like $VEEV gets classified in healthcare but $APPF / $PCOR gets classified in technology (instead of real estate / industrials)"
X Link 2025-06-05T13:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Literally talked about this in an interview once My personality loves infinite games. RPGs like Skyrim are so much fun because there is so much to progress in The stock market is also an infinite game. At any point you can spend more time learning about a new sector or company. In both cases you can specialize certain builds or be a generalist Finance is a perfect comp for video games. When I played Skyrim I would do all the side quests in a given part before proceeding to the main story. It built foundation new skills and improved with reps. Difference btw me and my [--] year comps that"
X Link 2025-06-12T15:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@stockthoughts81 13F is only U.S. equities. Doesnt include intl or fixed income"
X Link 2025-06-20T00:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Short thesis on $ORLY from Value Investors Club TLDR: Great business bad price. Trading at 31x forward earnings for 89% returns. Margins under pressure buybacks no longer accretive and comps face headwinds. Valuation assumes perfectiondownside if multiple normalizes. Sold $ORLY today. I have to grit my teeth when I buy/sell based on valuation. But it's tough to justify a 42% premium vs. the S&P [---]. Will re-enter eventually but think I can make more money elsewhere in the interim. https://t.co/X6h7gdsOil Sold $ORLY today. I have to grit my teeth when I buy/sell based on valuation. But it's"
X Link 2025-06-20T13:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@BronchickJ Arguably some cyclicity to its NTM P/E premium vs. the S&P [---]. Traded at a 10%-20% discount in [----] and [----]. Seems to peak around a 40%-50% premium"
X Link 2025-06-20T15:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@DocStoc1 At what price does the risk/reward on the IRR start to skew negative Btw agree its the ideal investment and will re-enter at some point (only a 32% premium vs 50% premium like two months ago)"
X Link 2025-06-25T01:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Russell Mid Growth Index rebalance out. It was like 9% of the index and active managers were forced to hold a position to neutralize some of the tracking error. Smart managers wouldve put on swaps or something to delta hedge/unwind the position Suspect some funds got lazy and market sold today causing the pressure"
X Link 2025-06-27T21:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Someone please tell me why it's a bad idea to blindly long/short a basket stocks with persistent positive/negative earnings revisions. Out of curiosity half a year ago I created a basket of [--] stocks with persistent positive/negative revisions. Six months later the hit rate is 85%. Surely this luck What's the obvious catch that makes this blow up when spread out across 20-plus positions"
X Link 2025-07-07T20:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Question for my sharp TMT buysiders on here -- where do you stand on the AI vs. vertical/horizontal SaaS debate I know everyone hates Chamath but I find it interesting that he has recently toned down his commentary about the pace which his [----] Solutions company disrupts legacy SaaS The PMs I talk to seem to keep chalking it up to "too early to tell" And Karpathy's makes the point that Vibe Coding is the easy part vs. DevOps is now the most time consuming part of deploying an application (setting up vercel deployments domain names authentication payments etc.)"
X Link 2025-07-07T23:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I bought $GPN when I should've bought $FOUR"
X Link 2025-07-08T12:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I should've bought $SN after TikTok convinced me to buy a Ninja Creami SN Way late to this [--]. Rather than trying to shoehorn recurring revenue into what is fundamentally an infrequent purchase (see COOK GPRO)- SN managed to expand horizontally such that it can generate pseudo RR by cross selling existing customers on the next category of https://t.co/xi9LoREKwk SN Way late to this [--]. Rather than trying to shoehorn recurring revenue into what is fundamentally an infrequent purchase (see COOK GPRO)- SN managed to expand horizontally such that it can generate pseudo RR by cross selling existing"
X Link 2025-07-08T12:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Revisited Cal Newports idea of craftsman vs passion mindset - Craftsman: value comes from creating something - Passion: value comes from extracting something FinTwit has drifted from craftsman to passion. Too many accounts optimize for extracting likes/followers. Real shame"
X Link 2025-07-09T20:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@atelicinvest Underwriting the runway for these companies gives me a lot of trouble. Everyone at these companies always claims its endless. Even my employer (an RIA) says the runway to consolidate peers is endless. Difficult to know where/when it stops"
X Link 2025-07-10T01:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Has anyone bothered trying to pair trade $NVDA / $TSM over the last year"
X Link 2025-07-10T13:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I fear juniors using LLMs won't build critical thinking skills. Like taking notes on a 1hr call and distilling key takeaways. There is value in doing the hard stuff when you are younger. At least my pea brain found it valuable. This will be controversial but in same way I don't think jrs shld use Canalyst to build models vs from scratch also think they shld not be allowed to use LLMs until getting enough reps of building out core names AI won't make you a good investor in itself but can help This will be controversial but in same way I don't think jrs shld use Canalyst to build models vs from"
X Link 2025-07-11T13:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I still remember my first investor day with DigitalOcean $DOCN. Total deer in headlights. I didnt even know what the key takeaways were. Sure an LLM couldve told me but I had to train my brain to think. Using one too early would've short-circuited that learning"
X Link 2025-07-11T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Curious_Inves True his call on $NVDA did not work out. But he's also not alone on that"
X Link 2025-07-11T15:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Curious_Inves He was actually pretty honest in the interview about missing Nvidia since launch. But he said he felt like being underweight is the right decision today (as of September 2024). Not sure if he has semi activity in Q2 [----] but wasn't much of a drag from Sept [--] to Mar 25"
X Link 2025-07-11T15:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@ContrarianCurse reckon it is b/c zuck does not want to speculate when peers will bring 1GW-plus online puts the onus of speculation on dylan not him that's just the way I read it"
X Link 2025-07-15T16:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SimeonResearch_ I'm probably way off base but $NICE"
X Link 2025-07-17T19:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I havent talked to Jeff or his two analysts but their sales guy told me they underwrite to IRRs. So they're targeting mid-teens growth after accounting for multiple compression. They only care about IRRs from the cost basis not the forward IRR based on todays price. And they only purchase shares when prices hit a multiple that lets them hit that hurdle IRR. For CSU I suspect the valuation is merely getting comfortable like organic growth + cash on cash return of M&A + amortizing the P/FCF compression over 5-10 years"
X Link 2025-07-18T00:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Mildly shocked by @GavinSBaker's foresight on AI. Two years before ChatGPT launched: "GPT-3 is a new AI algorithm. It can spit out really impressive text." "One of the biggest things in investing are unknown unknowns. GPT-3 was trained on an enormous corpus of written material. I'm curious if it will generate good unknown unknowns." "I am most excited about the rising semiconductor intensity of AI relative to software." "The semiconductor share of global GDP should increase by at least a factor of four to six over the next [--] to [--] years as AI takes hold.""
X Link 2025-07-20T15:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@CAGR8er Thats the rub - they are not willing to pay the same multiples that ROP regularly pays"
X Link 2025-07-21T10:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I have to revisit the IRR math here -- you're probably right. CSU could always lower their hurdle rates if there are no other opportunities. Their strategy obviously better in hindsight. I'm thinking at some point there is an inflection where the valuation makes a big difference enough difference between $ROP/ $CSU. May or may not be here"
X Link 2025-07-21T15:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@evrgn11112231 This is nitpicky and wont move the needle but is it fair to assume they will return 4% of the share value annually By the way I really enjoy your tweets. I started working on ASML this week and it has been helpful to jog your commentary"
X Link 2025-07-26T00:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Someone needs to curate a list of the high quality accounts on FinTwit and use Grok to summarize their views. Good example here of @evrgn11112231 and $ASML https://x.com/i/grok/share/UEn43CNHLkbxyW3ZCmfBCfBs0 https://x.com/i/grok/share/UEn43CNHLkbxyW3ZCmfBCfBs0"
X Link 2025-07-28T13:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Gavin's commentary on $ASML from 2019-2020 led to me doing my own deep dive I'm still consolidating my thoughts on the company and struggle with some of the technical details But I'm half tempted to share my writeup for anyone else who is green on the name $ASML $ASML"
X Link 2025-07-31T14:00Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements

"Gavin is a goldmine of quotes on $ASML "$ASML is a compounder (hate the word but unavoidable) hiding inside a seemingly cyclical company that is using its monopoly power to steadily improve its business model." http://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1101900254549630976 10) Royalty revenue - however named - is high multiple revenue. $ASML is a compounder (hate the word but unavoidable) hiding inside a seemingly cyclical company that is using its monopoly power to steadily improve its business model. http://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1101900254549630976 10) Royalty revenue - however named - is high"
X Link 2025-07-31T14:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@evrgn11112231 Thanks -- will do. Your back & forth with $ASML skeptics has been a great learning ground for me"
X Link 2025-07-31T14:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"In [----] OpenAI approached AWS. Jassy was not interested in OpenAI because it was outside of their ecosystem. So OpenAI went to Azure. At the advent of ChatGPT in [----] 8xA100 80GB instances on AWS were much more expensive than Azure/GCP. AWS did not have capacity b/c they wanted customers to use their proprietary in-house AI infrastructure. Preference for in-house AI compute resulted in AWS not participating in Nvidia's DGX Cloud. Jassy did a good job with traditional compute/storage but did not do a good job w/ the shift to GPU-based workloads. AMZN is one of my top positions but their AI"
X Link 2025-08-04T16:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@non_consensus @S_curvecap Why do you view this as a negative Indiscriminate selling/buying creates easy opportunities for fundamental investors that have a longer time horizon than the market"
X Link 2025-08-08T17:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Stakes are higher than investors realize when migrating to vibe coded solutions. Loose example -- I work at a large RIA. We pay $80K/year for a basic platform that documents our investment research. I could probably vibe code a simple alternative in one week. The problem -- switching to an in-house system also transfers the risk. If were audited we must prove our research process (meeting notes recommendations rationale etc). Everything needs an audit trails. Theres no room for error. But this is just the start. Data loss corruption downtime security support are all potential points of"
X Link 2025-08-12T13:24Z [----] followers, 13.4K engagements

"I do believe SaaS is/will be disrupted. But lotta investors downplay how difficult it is to migrate off of trusted ERP/ITSM/CRM platforms. Heck my firm has two email domains because retiring the legacy domain for 1.5K employees was not worth the effort (apparently it impacted all sorts of things). You can't just snap your fingers and change things that impact day to day operations"
X Link 2025-08-12T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Real shame @evrgn11112231 dipped out. I didn't agree with everything he said but he was obviously way smarter than me. Top [--] anons on FinTwit. I have a handful of Grok threads archiving his views on $ASML and investment process. Hopefully he reactivates before the [--] day deletion. Did $ASML bottom. That guy was the awesome. https://t.co/V70NdwABwt Did $ASML bottom. That guy was the awesome. https://t.co/V70NdwABwt"
X Link 2025-08-13T12:55Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements

"Akre's Q2 [----] 13F is out -- initiated workbench positions in in $CPRT and $FICO Sold nearly 1/3 of their shares in $ORLY"
X Link 2025-08-14T22:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$CSU's formula probably a better value here"
X Link 2025-08-17T13:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"For what it's worth Koyfin (which sources from CapIQ) understates $TOI's enterprise value by over 50%. They use 83M shares instead of 129M shares. EV/EBITDA between $TOI and $LMN is ball park same. Btw enjoy your content. Just sharing as a friendly FYI. My colleague had to point this out to me before"
X Link 2025-08-17T13:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@_clarktang @kakashiii111 @grok chime in here"
X Link 2025-08-27T23:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@FluentInFinance So these 500K sellers. Where do they go after they sell their house"
X Link 2025-09-06T01:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@atelicinvest @optionsly Agree. Underwriting to yield + growth is the way. And this comes from someone who has PVofFCF as their handle haha"
X Link 2025-09-07T11:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Mildly interesting that $CSU's EV/EBITDA is only at 7% premium vs. the S&P [---]. Lowest premium in recent history (this also happens to mark CSU's first drawdown that is not in conjunction with the broader markets)"
X Link 2025-09-26T00:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@sellsidepleb Not gonna be an IB salary but know folks in manager due diligence who ski during the season. Work 6am-10am ski the rest of the day wrap up work in the evening"
X Link 2025-10-03T22:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Dumb question but at what point (if ever) does it make sense to hedge a portfolio from a correction with $IONQ puts (or any other highly speculative risk-on stock)"
X Link 2025-10-10T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I am still ramping on the $VRSN story but am surprised that so many people fuss about paying $10/year for .com and .net domains when when all these other TLDs cost 3x-5x and are going 20%-30% higher effective tomorrow"
X Link 2024-10-15T00:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$VRSN's short interest was nearly 20% back in [----]. Was there a credible thesis that their ICANN contract would be disrupted The stock went from high 20s P/E to high 30s P/E after the massive short position was covered"
X Link 2024-10-15T16:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Is the market ascribing too much M&A platform value to Constellation Software $CSU $CSNWF From Bill Ackman in 2015-"
X Link 2024-11-26T00:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@CJ0pp3l Have you ever looked at Roper $ROP Any view on their strategy compared to the Mark Leonard playbook"
X Link 2024-12-22T13:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I spend a lot of time thinking about this. I own most of the names listed below. Using Roper $ROP as an example. Compounding FCF at 10%/year for three decades implies that they can deploy $400B in FCF on acquisitions at a cash-on-cash return around 5%. Eventually the TAM will become a bottleneck. But it is challenging to handicap the upside because there are few bottlenecks in the short/medium-term. The interesting part about owning "quality" stocks is that virtually all the bear cases amount to "well they can't do that forever" (TAM will run out/regulators will shut it down/competitors will"
X Link 2025-02-11T19:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@IterIntellectus I suspect OpenAI started to see churn after DeepSeek (and now Perplexity + Grok 3). He's gotta keep people interested in ChatGPT"
X Link 2025-02-18T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I am re-underwriting all my positions and Topicus $TOI $TOITF sticks out as potentially the most undervalued. [----] maintenance revenue in [----] organically compounds out to [----] in [----]. I am impressed by how consistent and sticky their organic growth has been. Most of my larger positions trade a higher valuation despite worse organic growth"
X Link 2025-05-01T14:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Tend to think that $ROP is a better value here than $CSU"
X Link 2025-07-20T15:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Looking at $ROP again with it flat YTD [----] vs. $CSU and S&P up 10%. $ROP CFO on the backlog of PE-owned companies- "Theres been a log jam for [--] years. We think its going to emerge at the end of this year and maybe early next year.""
X Link 2025-08-13T14:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"And just like that the $ROP and $CSU spread reversed Tend to think that $ROP is a better value here than $CSU https://t.co/lLO6FJcn1O Tend to think that $ROP is a better value here than $CSU https://t.co/lLO6FJcn1O"
X Link 2025-08-17T13:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF - $BCHP Lot to like here: $MSFT 15% $AMZN $14% $BN 9% $NFLX 5% $MA 5% $TDG 5% $CDNS 5% $V 5% $META 4% $GOOG 4%"
X Link 2025-08-18T14:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Bill Ackman's thesis on initiating $AMZN - AWS: 60% of profits 40%+ market share strong AI-driven demand - Retail: E-commerce leader fast delivery growing ad revenue - Tariff concerns overstated; Amazon well-equipped to adapt - Margin upside from automation + regional fulfillment - Durable advantages + long growth runway = compelling LT compounder - Attractive at 25x forward earnings https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1958520610289582587 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1958520610289582587"
X Link 2025-08-21T13:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ROP vs. $CSU - I find it helpful to separate the value of the core business from the value of the M&A platform. CSUs core business warrants a lower multiple than ROP given the underlying growth/quality. However CSUs ability to deploy at 15-20% IRRs makes its M&A engine more valuable. Personally I find ROP easier to underwrite. CSU's runway is harder for me to gauge. All of the companies that $ROP has acquired which I had the benefit of looking at on the private equity side were quality businesses that I would have liked to own. $CSU on the other hand has bought the shitcos that I wouldnt"
X Link 2025-09-23T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I should add that I do not necessarily know how much M&A value to ascribe to $ROP vs. $CSU. Rather sharing this framework as a thought experiment"
X Link 2025-09-23T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I like the setup in $ROP and added on weakness. Its now my 3rd largest position. The AI commoditizing software narrative feels overdone. Normalized P/FCF trades at a market multiple vs. a 30-40% premium over the past decade. Organic growth plus more VMS rollups should support LDD IRR. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976013398451089432 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976013398451089432"
X Link 2025-10-08T19:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@taobanker Do you mean 7% IRR"
X Link 2025-10-10T00:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"For what it's worth here's a simple visual on thinking through IRRs. Earnings Yield + Earnings Growth is a good proxy for IRR when 100% of the earnings is being distributed. But if some of the earnings is retained then you can do Earnings Growth + Share Count Reduction + Dividend Yield https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976645918427381837 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976645918427381837"
X Link 2025-10-10T13:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"For sure. I have dozens of use cases but a simple example would be a financial advisor with exposure to [---] investments (ETFs/mutual funds/etc). Each quarter the advisor wants a client-friendly write-up for each investment covering: 1) how the investment performed 2) why it performed that way and 3) what the investment recommendation is. In this example a custom agent can handle a solid first draft of points #1 and #2. That frees me up to focus on #3 the most important part of an update (e.g. whether the client should buy/sell/hold and why). As for training Im not that sophisticated. Instead"
X Link 2025-10-18T18:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I reviewed $ROP's earnings PR this morning but havent gotten to the transcript yet. Im not enthusiastic about the buyback program. Conceptually IRR = organic growth + ROIC on deployed capital. ROIC on buybacks is roughly the normalized FCF yield (4%). ROIC on M&A should be higher than 4% paired with even better organic growth. To me this suggests that assumption may no longer hold. Either (a) the M&A environment has become tougher or (b) theres a shift away from first-principles capital allocation. I need to chew on this more"
X Link 2025-10-23T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@WaterportCap @JerryCap Assuming acquisitions have same/better organic growth and trade at a lower multiple why prefer buybacks IRR quickly compresses from mid-teens to 10% if repurchasing shares is their best option (ignoring further mult change)"
X Link 2025-10-23T22:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Mildly interesting that $NVDA is once again down to 25x forward P/E"
X Link 2025-11-25T17:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SouthernValue95 Any view on $ROP these days"
X Link 2025-12-04T01:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Loomis has a great investment process/framework for evaluating quality growth stocks"
X Link 2025-12-17T16:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Bonhoeffer_KDS @SouthernValue95 @TidefallCapital Keith politely curious here: how would your logic adjust if the company prioritized cash dividends over share repurchases instead Does the implied multiple stay high"
X Link 2025-12-24T18:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"think it's light sarcasm about how inst investors are high & mighty and blame market/retail/speculation for their underperformance. from my view I thought it was incredible how many PMs overreacted to tariffs while also not re-underwriting the risk in a rebound as incrementally positive news came out during the year https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007208352779010155 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007208352779010155"
X Link 2026-01-02T21:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Notes from Keith Weiss (Morgan Stanley) on the risk of GenAI disrupting software. Feels like the market has dismissed #5: "(SaaS) incumbents can use the same code-gen tools as startups to become fast followers. Incumbents have advantages: installed-based data domain expertise and tighter feedback loops from customers." To me the current SaaS narrative feels a lot like the Google narrative a year ago. Everyone wrote them off then they started executing and shipping real models/products. SaaS incumbents will have to do the same. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007263090350375102"
X Link 2026-01-03T01:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$CSU is a textbook capital compounder. Over the last [--] years it added $8B of invested capital (only 25% debt-funded). NOPAT compounded at 25% driven by a 129% reinvestment rate and 20% incremental ROIC (vs. 25% [--] yr blended ROIC)"
X Link 2026-01-04T15:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"REQ on $CSU getting disrupted by AI: "Claims that agentic AI will displace VMS workflows overlook crucial questions: Who is the customer What problem is being solved What integrations compliance requirements and cantfail systems must be navigated Context matters and in vertical markets it matters enormously." $csu $csu.to Source: https://t.co/yUw0TZaj1J https://t.co/TUKTlUE3E9 $csu $csu.to Source: https://t.co/yUw0TZaj1J https://t.co/TUKTlUE3E9"
X Link 2026-01-09T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Stocks_Stones At the end of [----] what gave you confidence that things would turn around Impressive rebound since then"
X Link 2026-01-14T01:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@orrdavid David is this a large growth manager Just looking at the return stream it almost looks like a strategy that benchmarks against the R1K Growth Index instead of the S&P"
X Link 2026-01-15T01:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@insiderfed I tried vibe coding something about [--] months ago and it wasn't that great. Will have to give it another shot with all the hype over the last month"
X Link 2026-01-15T16:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I think one of the issues with FinTwit and the whole AI/SaaS debate is that folks have jumped into position sizing way too fast. In the short-term stock prices climb if expectations for the business are improving and drop if they're getting worse. Valuation just doesn't matter over that timeframe. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013958696095662274 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013958696095662274"
X Link 2026-01-21T12:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Out of curiosity I ran this tweet through ChatGPT Gemini and Grok. All three flagged $TSMC. Just sharing b/c it shows how commoditized & undifferentiated these models have become. Non-US stocks only. Whats your best idea Bonus points if you share the bull case. Non-US stocks only. Whats your best idea Bonus points if you share the bull case"
X Link 2026-01-24T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Question for allocators / PMs: One of my firm's long-only small/mid value PMs has struggled to navigate post-COVID. The PM attributes weak performance to market structure arguing that trough multiples no longer provide a floor and that stocks bleed out regardless of valuation until fundamentals drastically improve. While I agree the landscape has changed (retail flows/alt-data/pods/whatever) to me these factors feel permanent. How much leeway would you give a manager who recognizes this new reality yet continues to run a process that seems incompatible with the current regime They have a"
X Link 2026-01-24T15:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@KairosPraxis @madcap_cap In your opinion at what multiple would you prefer they prioritize buybacks"
X Link 2026-01-24T20:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$MSFT swapped w/ $META for the lowest P/E among Mag 7"
X Link 2026-01-29T18:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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