@OraclumCapital Avatar @OraclumCapital Oraclum Capital (ORCA)

Oraclum Capital (ORCA) posts on X about in the, $spy, strong, silver the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 46% stocks 18% technology brands 10% countries 7% currencies 6% cryptocurrencies 5% exchanges #3510 automotive brands 2% social networks 1%

Social topic influence in the 12%, $spy #387, strong 9%, silver #3687, bullish #1441, inflation 6%, gold 6%, ai 6%, we are 6%, if you 6%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @michaelaarouet @andreassteno @mrderivatives @macroalf @johngjansson1 @wiredpilot @wolfvukovic @stealthqe4 @arpovius @ride_enjoyer @zacmarkovich @raydalio @raydalios @jacobshap @geopapic @rideenjoyer @vikianush @beursstrategie @wolffinancial @hajiyevrashad

Top assets mentioned SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) SPX6900 (SPX) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Doge Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@MichaelAArouet It has not been a failed experiment. Both Italys and Greeces real income would drop even further down with much higher inflation and currency devaluation. Look at Brazil for example. You cannot heal bad economic and fiscal policy with an independent central bank"
X Link 2026-01-31T07:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Interesting quirk about the future FOMC meetings. Warsh prefers a more opaque data-driven approach and has criticized the Feds over-reliance on forward guidance and let's call it over-communication about the future path of policy. This will create more market volatility around policy meetings and big data reports. Great for us but also generating a volatility premium that can (and will) occasionally spill over to equities. Interesting times ahead. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018080823141175396 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018080823141175396"
X Link 2026-02-01T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Looking at the Warsh nomination this is what we read into the markets reaction: - More Fed independence / institutional credibility - Smaller Fed balance sheet - More willingness to turn hawkish in case of inflation running out of control - Productivity-led growth story that will cut inflation despite rates going down - Better outlook for the US dollar (vs other potential candidates) Now it has to play out like this as well in the coming days. Over-levered mania-driven silver was the first casualty. LT bonds in parallel. $BTC seems to follow. Equities will probably dump soon as well if the"
X Link 2026-02-01T21:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"It was definitely unexpected. It will be interesting to see whether he can control the FOMC. I doubt he would have the free will to follow his instinct on the reduction of the Fed balance sheet. Probably most importantly among the top candidates he seems the most capable of turning hawkish which might come in handy if (when) inflation spikes. OK not in [----] but beyond. I do not buy that much into this productivity-led deflationary spiral which will enable the Fed to run low rates and above-trend growth with inflation below 3%. We need to see data to support it. So the real test would come if"
X Link 2026-02-01T22:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Yes many - lower interest rates - tighter fiscal rules which come in handy to tame social benefits for smaller countries (does not apply to large members) - much lower risk for FDI for FX costs (assuming small countries on average depreciate their currencies vs the euro) - 1% cheaper foreign transactions and trade - higher tourism income (confirmed with data all over) - improvement in M&A activity (happened every time) All in all there are costs but for countries that have issues in controlling their inflation plus have very high capital surplus and are small (in international economics"
X Link 2026-02-04T07:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Is the debasement trade still the play It is not a question of money supply inflation deficit etc. It's about the correlation. If gold silver and BTC remain correlated with risk assets and continue to act as speculative assets as they have over the past months one might reconsider them as ideal hedges. One shoe dropped and another is hanging on a thin lace. Hence the debasement trade is dying out with every passing day. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021153653231419640 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021153653231419640"
X Link 2026-02-10T09:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Who is going to budge Warsh or the markets The soon-to-be chairman of the Fed called the Fed's balance sheet "the biggest distortion in capital markets today" An actual QT would mean an entirely new liquidity regime quite opposite to post-2008 CB abundance. This would lead to higher equity risk premiums and equity repricing. The markets are currently positioned for the exact opposite. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021155287353139428 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021155287353139428"
X Link 2026-02-10T09:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Cash levels are collapsing while $SPY and $QQQ have pancaked for [--] months. That typically does not end well"
X Link 2026-02-10T09:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Despite a 3% slump markets are pushing towards new ATH ($DJI already crossed 50k on last Friday). Pretty significant $SPY resistance line at [---] is fast approaching. Here is what to watch: [--]. Flows & momentum - although the indices recovered the slip the volume on selloff days was larger than that on recovery days. Yields were climbing steadily. The #VIX is still slightly elevated at [--]. To print new ATH we need both index option premiums to go down (VIX down back to 15) and volume on rally days to pick up while bond yields need to stay steady. The resistance above needs to be breached"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$SPY is back at [---]. This level has rejected every breakout attempt for weeks. No clean push through. No aggressive rejection either. Until we see: break retest continuation with real volume we're stuck in a range. Patience urgency here"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Key week for markets: - CPI data drops Friday - Big tech earnings rolling in - Delayed jobs & retail sales numbers Price is sitting at technical resistance (695). Macro data could be the catalyst that finally moves us out of this range. What are you watching closest"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Why would you think soft CPI negates the AI bubble narrative"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Based on the NFP data I would not be surprised if we see another strong headline print next month. That means we are probably in the last third of this cycle with 18-24 months left. People will probably call it an AI bubble bursting but beneath it lies a simple financial cycle driven by fiscal and monetary policy abundance in the past decade+. This time it will probably start with the Fed hiking rates once inflation reaccelerates driven by the wage squeeze in the tight labor market and the short labor supply. It would play out 1st rate hike Dec/2026 - Q1/2027 and then wheels fall off by"
X Link 2026-02-12T09:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@JohnGJansson1 @AndreasSteno that will still not be enough to support equity valuations if the AI bubble bursts. You cannot hot-run AI bubble into reality. The question is fundamental. AI will either deliver awesome productivity gains soon or not. That will ultimately determine the feith of that narrative"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@JohnGJansson1 @AndreasSteno But yeah I guess soft CPI can temporarily bounce big tech if bets on more/sooner cuts come into play. Before these potential custs arrive we will be back to more fundamental scrutiny. So I would see this potential bounce as very risky (potentially short-lived / blow-off topish)"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Zac_Markovich With slightly lower highs. And I expect slightly lower lows 673-674. The great question and potentially even more important answer would be: and then what Do we drill down further Or we go for another test of lower high"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Softer than expected CPI report. Equities' reaction is muted the dollar is slightly down but honestly it does not seem related to this. Bonds gained a bit. All in all not much reaction yet"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Unluckiest He is a criminal. Receiver liquidating the good investments because of fraud with funds has nothing to do with SBF luck"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Yeah but you also used unlucky at the beginning. Luck is something you cannot influence a probabilistic outcome that either goes in your favor or not. He deliberately chose to defraud. I know Im splitting hairs but I'm still so sick of guys like SBF so I had to rant. Sorry. Forbes cover https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022396796761444825 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022396796761444825"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"One more dip to the demand zone with a fake break below and liquidity kicks in. That should be the end of the distribution then we can kick up higher and finally go for a [---] breakout on $SPY. So the sale seems not to have gone through but our more bullish outlook still stands. More on this on Monday pre-market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022624851010187616 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022624851010187616"
X Link 2026-02-14T10:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Jobless claims jumped 231k vs. 212k exp. / 209k last week. Plus the JOLTS collapsed (6.54m vs. 7.2m expected and 6.93m prior month). Hence the initial equity drop. But when you look at the continuous claims they slightly rose to 1844k but less than expected (1850k) and have been pretty steadily contracting for [--] months now. Combine that with a sharp drop in job openings and you can draw a different conclusion. The labor market continues to tighten. Without claims rising this means that low hiring is coupled with no firing. So stable tight. Any glimpse of hiring acceleration without labor"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The perfect clash of ideas for Sunday evening. Nope. Its just going through an iteration. @RayDalio surprisingly doesnt get that things go through trial&error to improve https://t.co/NU8Nm05gU6 Nope. Its just going through an iteration. @RayDalio surprisingly doesnt get that things go through trial&error to improve https://t.co/NU8Nm05gU6"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Just look at Mag7 valuations. They are basically at COVID lows in Mar/20 or [----] lows. And you know what kind of rebound we have seen after that"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Indices pancaked since Oct/25 while forward earnings for $SPX have moved up from $299 to $317 per share. This gap is the definition of a bullish divergence"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"2. Liquidity tsunami - fiscal + monetary stimuli indicate we are running it hot in [----]. No new tariffs = +1% fiscal stimulus 1BBB = $50bln extra tax refunds in the next [--] weeks The new Fed might have an opening for rate cuts in Q2/26 already At some point bears won't be able to ignore these trends"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"And while we are complaining about the uncertain future gains from massive invest the money is hitting not just $NVDA but also businesses in storage energy HAVAC construction the industrial RMO services transportation EHS equipment"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"A direct investment in the fund in the US is possible for: a) accredited investors or b) minimum investment of +250k USD and at least 1m USD in liquid assets. It is possible to invest a significantly smaller amount in Europe through Gen2 fund tracker which you can check at this link: Or as always contact investor relations DISCLAIMER: This is not financial or investment advice. It cannot be interpreted as investor solicitation nor does it constitute an offer to buy or sell. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. https://oraclumcapital.com/contact-us/"
X Link 2026-02-16T15:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Silver crushed. BTC full bear market. Software feels left for dead. And the $SPY Only down 3%. Weve been stuck between [------] for weeks. Volatility is elevated. Nothing seems to resolve. Feels messy but I think this range is about to break"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We believe that sideways trading is now overextended and that the break to the upside - yes upside - should be coming up. Why Several reasons. 🧵👇"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1. Software washout is overblown - the market convinced itself that AI will kill the SaaS model. Relative strength of software ETF vs. SPX hit an RSI of [----] Almost unprecedented exhaustion record outflows the largest shorting pileup. Peak negativity. This is exactly the kind of sentiment backdrop where a violent reversal begins. Shortsqueezish. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023333735114866749 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023333735114866749"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"3. A Debasement of the Debasement Trade - the narrative of currency debasement hit a hard wall with the pivot of Warsh's nomination for the Fed chair position. Silver and BTC are in the basement Gold parabolic broke. Extra retail and institutional liquidity will find a new home in the next "risk-on" moment. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023333746020155717 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023333746020155717"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"4. Fundamentals are accelerating under the surface - Q4/25 GDPNow at 3.7% the ISM manufacturing at a 3-year high CPI print was only a bit soft NFP was much better than expected and continuous jobless claims in a 4-month declining trend. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023333748515713138 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023333748515713138"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Money is starting to flow out of Superscaler BS into the real economy at an unprecedented pace. How much time until we notice this in the data"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"6. Yeah one more thing summer is going to have a surge of tourism income for the US with the Football World Cup"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"None of these points is the catalyst that will trigger the reversal. But it is a perfect set-up for strong "risk on" push that will take us above [---] on $SPY and allow the next leg up. Tomorrow we will tell you how it seems to us that it plays out"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"So far the market has largely followed our "more bullish" outlook for [----]. Stars are aligning that we will see very-super-duper-extra soon the ultimate drop of the year. And then we brrrrrrr up and to the right. NFA"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The level of awesomness of these results of Oraclum Survey Competition in [----] so far is hard to explain. Our top users were sooo accurate the first [--] weeks. The BASON was spot on [--] out of [--] weeks and the [--] miss was very mild"
X Link 2026-02-16T12:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The gap is widening again (as it should). Still we are long way from being where we want to be but the ORCA Bason Fund started strong in 2026"
X Link 2026-02-16T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"RT @wolf_vukovic: If your timeline is full of @RayDalio's "The Word Order Has Broken Down" narrative and you think this is where the world"
X Link 2026-02-16T20:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"My X timeline is populated with ultra-bearish and ultra-bullish calls. A very wide range with everything in between. Either the quality of my timeline improved (through positive selection) or the market is really divided"
X Link 2026-02-16T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@StealthQE4 There is absolutely nothing terrifying about this. Google isnt an MBS the underlying biz is as profitable as ever. Even if the AI investments end up as a bust yeah valuation might get a hit but the operating business will chug along just fine"
X Link 2026-02-17T04:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@JacobShap @Geo_papic And they put Kosovo back to Serbia. The NBA is playing with 🔥"
X Link 2026-02-17T05:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"What part How much debt is there in Google They have a D/E ratio of [----] not 4-5 (like most mortgages). Plus they can pay off all the debt with like [--] months of net profit. They hold half of the debt in cash. And so on. Oracle is a different story. Google would need 8-10x current debt levels to be in trouble. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023656852139979127 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023656852139979127"
X Link 2026-02-17T07:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@ride_enjoyer @StealthQE4 Yeah well neither did I check this in detail but the debt level is definitely not a threat to Google. Even if [--] bln evaporated that is like [--] day of trading in Google stock"
X Link 2026-02-17T07:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"So how does an overall bullish thesis play out This is not financial advice but a potential path forward for this and next week. We might be wrong here (and I will point out how). 🧵👇"
X Link 2026-02-17T09:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"There is a heavy ceiling of the previous 50d MA of [---] on $SPY. There is strong support that worked twice already at [---]. We are right in the middle at the moment"
X Link 2026-02-17T09:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"What could go wrong a) a negative catalyst in the next 3-7 days that flushes us below [---] but does not allow us to reclaim it within 1-2 sessions b) We are delulu about the magnitude of the negativity in software stocks c) bond selloff or dollar gains a lot due to geo-macro reaction to SCOTUS potentially striking down tariffs yen and/or (Japanese yields) or another shutdown d) something we do not see (please share your thouths)"
X Link 2026-02-17T09:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"In conclusion lines to watch: up: [---] (we break it -- we go for [---] -- we break that the bottom of the year is likely behind us) down: [---] (we break it -- retest but not reclaim -- we could flush down to 635640)"
X Link 2026-02-17T09:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@MichaelAArouet The ability to generate growth with currency devaluation in an open economy is an illusion"
X Link 2026-01-25T11:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This was the last week. Nothing broke (yet). Even if we clear the gap above today and tickle the [------] on $SPY there is a danger of any slippage (for whatever reason) to drop us back by -1% and potentially signal bearish confirmation triggering further selling spiralling all sorts of technical damage. While in this blue zone we know nothing. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015749942401196243 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015749942401196243"
X Link 2026-01-26T11:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Good news There are great tailwinds for the market: - inflation down labor market frozen GDP growth roaring - Fed will get the chairman and he will deliver cuts - Admin trying to juice the housing market ($200B mortgage bond purchase) - +10% earnings expansion (and counting) - 2% fiscal swing (tariffs [----] -- no extra tariffs 2026) - China Japan and Germany are doing fiscal expansion - superscalers CapEx bonanza Bad news (In the Orca team's opinion) It is all already priced in Almost to perfection. So the equity risk premium is at 20-year lows and #SPX dividend yield is 1.2%. Euphoric BTD"
X Link 2026-01-26T11:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"One big reason we should be cautious in Q1 is simple: HISTORY. Midterm election years tend to start on shaky footing. [--] out of [--] midterm years suffering a 7% Q1 correction since [----] 🧐 It is perfectly in line with both our yearly outlook scenarios (less or more bullish). And most importantly it does not mean anything for the strong finish of the year and in half of those Midterm years the last quarter was the strongest. Source: Cantor Fitzgerald https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015754819554644131 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015754819554644131"
X Link 2026-01-26T11:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@vikianush We would need to see yen strengthening and US bond yields rising to validate this. I do not see this happening. Yes it is plausible. Can it break markets I do not think it's enough"
X Link 2026-01-26T12:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Team meetup in Zagreb Croatia after @wolf_vukovic stopped by on his way from Davos. If you do not know by now our team sits in (at least) [--] locations at all times: New York HQ Singapore and Zagreb"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Our team was at #SALT conference in NYC. Great discussions with the industry peers and potential investors The future seems bright for our little Hedge Fund"
X Link 2024-05-24T08:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Be mindful of the local market in HK (code: There is a wide gap between HK trading and the US ( $NIO ). The US is lagging all these [--] days. $NIO today in HK +9.86%. Repeat something remotely close to this in the US and the 200d MA is blown off. http://9866.HK http://9866.HK"
X Link 2024-09-10T08:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"325d weighted MA works like magic. Just look at that $MSF chart. It worked on: Aug/6th Sep/9th Oct/7th Nov/1st"
X Link 2024-10-31T08:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MacroAlf Hey you back Glad to see you we missed you"
X Link 2026-01-05T16:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Another possible scenario for [----] (more bullish): we slide down to [-----] on $SPX early in the year but never blow through. We trade sideways until late May when a new Fed chair (promising more cuts) earnings for Q1 the World Cup supported strong retail spending and unemployment labor and inflation data confirm the economy is reaccelerating. Once we confirm the breach of [----] $SPX we grind up for the second part of the year. So unlike [----] no major drawdown but a six-month window for macroeconomic resolution. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008280342466289677"
X Link 2026-01-05T20:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MacroAlf this chart looks quite scary"
X Link 2026-01-08T16:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Look at this stat from #ORCALabs In [--] out of [--] cases since the 1990s when the S&P gained 75% or more over a 3-year span the next January saw a 4% drawdown (or worse). Shall we make it [--] out of [--] It depends on how quickly we get a de-escalation signal"
X Link 2026-01-19T14:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"ORCA put out two cases for [----] and both: more bullish and less bullish are perfectly aligned with what is going on right now (it's not rocket science to be right [--] weeks into the year I know) The first one is still slightly more probable but odds are reshuffling as we write. $SPY $SPX https://twitter.com/OraclumCapital/status/2008278328822931560/photo/1 https://twitter.com/OraclumCapital/status/2008280342466289677/photo/1 https://x.com/OraclumCapital/status/2008278328822931560/photo/1 https://x.com/OraclumCapital/status/2008280342466289677/photo/1"
X Link 2026-01-19T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Do we this week finally break this brick wall The $QQQ needs to jump above [---] and stay there until the close and confirm the retest in the next two days. [--] out of Mag7 reporting the next two days will determine that"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We see the breakout on $QQQ with [---] but extra low volume indicates nobody believes it (yet). Waiting for earnings of Mag7"
X Link 2026-01-27T18:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Close confirmed now retest should follow today and it should hold with good Mag7 earnings and blow through to the downside tomorrow if earnings disappoint"
X Link 2026-01-28T09:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This will not end up pretty for those caught up in the highs of the parabolic move. How much more can silver climb before the music stops It happened before Jan '80 75% drop in [--] months Feb'83 45% drop in [--] months Apr '87 65% drop in [--] months Feb '98 35% drop in [--] months Apr '04 33% drop in a month Apr '11 57% drop in [--] months and 77% drop in a bear market that lasted until Mar '20 (almost [--] years) So be extra careful chasing silver here https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016442286192685265 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016442286192685265"
X Link 2026-01-28T09:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This is how previous parabolic moves in #silver ended (peak to trough) Jan '80 75% drop in [--] months Feb '83 45% drop in [--] months Apr '87 65% drop in [--] months Feb '98 35% drop in [--] months Apr '04 33% drop in a month Apr '11 57% drop in [--] months and 77% drop in a bear market that lasted until Mar '20 (almost [--] years) Feb '21 35% drop in [--] months Look at the months It's all Jan to mid-April. I am not sure we are at the end of the current move but a break in the first week of February would not be a crazy idea considering the history. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016444914553307148"
X Link 2026-01-28T09:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I think you need 22% down to be certain that the parabolic move ended so 100$ might not be enough for that type of trade (a "certain" one). If you believe this is not over wait for that higher high [------] and then you may apply the same logic. Or just short now and hope for the best 🤣 because everybody knows this ends with a breakdown nobody knows when (and from what price). But confirmation of lower highs on several timeframes should be the best signal you can hope for. In either case I would definitely limit the exposure. Chasing flying rockets is as risky as catching falling knives."
X Link 2026-01-28T10:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Just for reference so you can laugh at me or congratulate me for pointing this out [--] months down the line this was posted at the price of silver of 113$/oz (futures at 116$)"
X Link 2026-01-28T10:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Wiredpilot Hahaha that would be crazy in a day. In two months Would be parabolic. Market parameters would go bananas. We all might need paramedic. I'm out of para- things"
X Link 2026-01-28T20:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$TSLA with the least volatile reaction to earnings when compared to $MSFT and $META was not on my Bingo card"
X Link 2026-01-28T22:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives No he was wrong (both too early and bad logic) but yeah gold really did great so his takes got lucky"
X Link 2026-01-29T08:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"It would be symbolic for gold to top at 5555.55$/oz. Just to avoid the obvious choice of [-------] or (gulp god forbid) [-------] Ok Ill se myself out"
X Link 2026-01-29T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Waiting for post-Mag3of7-earnings open. I expect green at the open and then let's see if we go for the retest"
X Link 2026-01-29T13:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Let's check in on Michael Burry's $PLTR positions (assuming he still holds them) 01/15/27 p50 is at 2$ so still green (bought for 1.84$) $NVDA puts are in red more than that so he is net red on these two positions. Michael Burry's $PLTR position: Assuming he is providing the correct numbers [-----] contracts 01/15/27 p50 bought for 1.84$ closed yesterday at 2.02$ For those not trading options that is 10.1m USD vs. 9.2m USD paid (+900000$ or +8.1%) Now that is not a big bet for a hedge Michael Burry's $PLTR position: Assuming he is providing the correct numbers [-----] contracts 01/15/27 p50"
X Link 2026-01-29T14:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@arpovius I think it is priced in. That is one of the reasons why we haven't flown off this resistance - support - resistance"
X Link 2026-01-29T15:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"So shorting silver yesterday happened to be a great trade but the volatility is crazy. What worries me is the level of volatility in gold. Silver had strong momentum like gold but it is not regarded as the "safe haven" asset like gold. But a $ [--] trillion asset flying 10% in a day like crazy. That is too much volatility. This will spill over to equities. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017147195393298842 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017147195393298842"
X Link 2026-01-30T08:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Beursstrategie It could be makes sense but this could snap back with one geo/-macro event and destroy all the technicals. Too volatile. If you are going to trade it these should be priorities: - position sizing - clear exit plan - limits Good luck"
X Link 2026-01-30T08:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@WOLF_Financial Volatile"
X Link 2026-01-31T20:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@hajiyev_rashad There was a powerful fundamental reason for the breakdown. It was overpriced through mania. The mania stopped asset repriced. The volatility (both directions) is far from over"
X Link 2026-02-01T07:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@william_R2Rclub @AndreasSteno Well if you call a 30% swing in a day noise that is some crazy deafening noise"
X Link 2026-02-01T22:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Look at this. We see the technical setup of holding / accumulation until it is revealed can $SPY test and survive the test of the support levels. A drop below the blue area will most likely trigger a sell signal"
X Link 2026-02-02T12:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"What a week to close January Grind up that collapsed after Kevin Warsh was nominated for the Fed chair indirectly sparking a Friday 35% swing in silver price. Gold BTC and long-duration bonds dumped while the dollar regained some ground and equities were shaky. Here is what to watch this week: [--]. Geomacro stories - Trade and geopolitics heating up with a fresh US-India deal dropping the tariffs to 18% (from 25%) after the previous week's EU-India deal. The biggest obstacle could be what happens with Iran but no confrontation over the last weekend (the US armada remained steady) and quick"
X Link 2026-02-03T14:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives That is why it is called Painpal"
X Link 2026-02-03T14:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@jhains2 @MichaelAArouet Yes it does for small countries newcomers without political power to avoid new Greece scenario"
X Link 2026-02-04T08:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@wyqtor @MichaelAArouet That certainly is the case. What is also the case is the explosive growth of savings through capital markets and strong investment growth in businesses. The economy is complex and everything has both positive and negative effects"
X Link 2026-02-04T08:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Yes Kalshi is redundant if you are trying to catch S&P swings but the risk-reward profile is completely different if you are trying to catch outsized returns. Kalshi resembles a much more index options. One could trade Kalshi if he is accurate enough on where the index will go but get less volatility (and limited upside) and more continuous trading at a much lower ticket to enter. So not so great that is why pros use $SPY options etc. But it comes with a perk that you do not need to know thetas gammas flows timing decay bla bla bla. Percentages and "probabilities" are much easier to"
X Link 2026-02-04T08:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Mortgages were never that low in the Euro area small countries. That is Germany not Slovakia or Slovenia. Anyhow interest rates do matter but people buy housing because they need it and they can and try to avoid credit as much as they can. Depending on the country in question in CEE roughly 60-80% of all RE transactions are for cash. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018965450126680312 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018965450126680312"
X Link 2026-02-04T08:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@grok @TruthMatters64 @MichaelAArouet Great graph @grok. Can you also extend the time series to the period when these other countries adopted the Euro"
X Link 2026-02-04T12:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"And had you caught up with my previous comments below those were exactly my points. It's risk/reward/cost/benefit for each case but in a small country's case its unlikely that its own currency is a net benefit in the long term. In Polands case (which is not a relative small open economy in economic theory terms) it is an open debate and I do not have a strong opinion in either direction. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019126575749312646 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019126575749312646"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Reactions to $GOOGL and $MSFT earnings can be summed up in [--] words: Show me the money i.e. that money that will come in the future from massive CapEx. Its not enough anymore to promise investments you gotta show what these do for your future earnings. The AI supercycle is maturing. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019284559389413535 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019284559389413535"
X Link 2026-02-05T05:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Two quarters ago it was enough for Superscalers to announce a big CapEx expense bigger than expected and the market brought a reward. Now the market asks why you invest and into what (as it should). $MSFT earnings were stellar. But the red flag was 66% surge in CapEx to $37.5bln. And the issue is that aggressive spending is to add computing capacity not to sell as a cloud service (Azure growth is flatish from 40% to 39%) but to satiate internal R&D OpenAI and Copilot needs. Until Microsoft resolves this capacity bottleneck this dip might look like a trap. For quite a while. Just like before"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This year Poland entered the top [--] economies in the World. Amazing. Sweden Belgium Switzerland Iran Argentina OUT I have a hot take (did some math seems very likely to realize). China will not surpass the US as the world's largest economy (in nominal GDP terms) for the next [--] years. Only India might come in close nobody else. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019356694250242102 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019356694250242102"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"On average the earnings of Mag7 that reported this week were stellar. Forward CapEx and as not. The market's reaction was terrible. Perfectly in line with pullback not the start of a deep correction or god forbid a bear market. Will there be a more substantial correction (-10% peak-to-trough) Depends entirely on the geomacro stuff and the rest of the market. Maggys did their fair share. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019659165426221069 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019659165426221069"
X Link 2026-02-06T06:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Buying or selling this chart It's [--] years it has blown the Bollinger bound in sizable volume after months of contracted volatility. Guess the stock The first right guess gets a T-shirt with the ORCA logo"
X Link 2024-09-27T09:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Who pays for the US tariffs Piper Sandler made an assessment that: i. 1015% - exporters absorbing tariffs ii. 2530% - consumers paying higher prices iii. 60% - US companies bearing the cost (margin squeeze) Well not surprising if you know some theory of international economics. Who ultimately bears the economic cost of tariffs is defined by the elasticity of supply / demand (in short who has available alternatives) The most crucial point in my view is that iii. will turn into mostly ii. (Corporations can bear only so much; at some point they need to transfer costs to customers or suffer"
X Link 2025-09-10T11:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"link to original text by @MacroAlf Who Pays for US Tariffs New Research Reveals American Companies Bear the Brunt UK http://Investing.com http://Investing.com"
X Link 2025-09-10T11:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Since @MacroAlf is not here anymore I want to share something very interesting that he posted on LinkedIn. Link to the post in the first comment"
X Link 2025-10-17T12:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"ORCA vs SPX Comparison The Orca beats the #SPX regardless of seasonality or who is in charge (🐂 🐻 or 🦘). Check our weekly performance update with the link 👆 https://oraclum.pages.dev/orca_spx https://oraclum.pages.dev/orca_spx"
X Link 2025-05-06T12:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

Topic Creators

https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/topic/:topic/creators/v1

Get the top creators for a social topic

input parameters:

Example request:

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/topic/bitcoin/creators/v1

Example response:

{
  "data": [
    {
      "creator_id": "twitter::1605310254085980161",
      "creator_name": "Bitcoin_Teddy",
      "creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1739753415134138368/FrWHMAnb_200x200.jpg",
      "creator_followers": 74293,
      "creator_rank": 1,
      "interactions_24h": [-------]
    }
  ]
}

Schema:

Category Creators

https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/category/:category/creators/v1

Get the top creators for a social category

input parameters:

Example request:

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/category/musicians/creators/v1

Example response:

{
  "data": [
    {
      "creator_id": "youtube::undefined",
      "creator_name": "airshowfansh",
      "creator_avatar": "https://yt3.ggpht.com/cUuwxYNRoYoO_rnBAgPbze39nOMI_rUq0pVmHiM-Fz40TsRDmv8gZcUxvqxLF_bsGzhdVu4u9A=s88-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj",
      "creator_followers": 79600000,
      "creator_rank": 1,
      "interactions_24h": [---------]
    }
  ]
}

Schema:

Creators List

https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creators/list/v1

Get a list of trending social creators over all of social based on interactions. To get lists of creators by category or topic see the topics and categories endpoints.

Example request:

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creators/list/v1

Example response:

{
  "data": [
    {
      "creator_name": "elonmusk",
      "creator_display_name": "Elon Musk",
      "creator_id": "44196397",
      "creator_network": "twitter",
      "creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2008546467615580160/57KcqsTA_200x200.jpg",
      "creator_followers": 234295750,
      "creator_posts": 3649,
      "creator_rank": 1,
      "interactions_24h": [---------]
    }
  ]
}

Schema:

Creator

https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/:network/:id/v1

Get detail information on a specific creator

input parameters:

Example request:

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/twitter/elonmusk/v1

Example response:

{
  "data": {
    "creator_id": "twitter::44196397",
    "creator_name": "elonmusk",
    "creator_display_name": "Elon Musk",
    "creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2008546467615580160/57KcqsTA_200x200.jpg",
    "creator_followers": 234296337,
    "creator_rank": 2,
    "interactions_24h": 318539577,
    "topic_influence": [
      {
        "topic": "in the",
        "count": 294,
        "percent": 5.88,
        "rank": [--]
      }
    ],
    "top_community": [
      {
        "creator_name": "grok",
        "creator_display_name": "Grok",
        "creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1893219113717342208/Vgg2hEPa_200x200.jpg",
        "count": [---]
      }
    ]
  }
}

Schema:

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing