@everyonehatesp1 Avatar @everyonehatesp1 everyonehatespoetry

everyonehatespoetry posts on X about $onit, business, $cgeh, $cnrd the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance stocks cryptocurrencies technology brands countries currencies automotive brands social networks travel destinations celebrities

Social topic influence $onit, business, $cgeh #2, $cnrd, $bwen, money, strong, $fls, $lake, ceo

Top assets mentioned Flowserve Corporation (FLS) Data Lake (LAKE) Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (KD) Primoris Services Corporation (PRIM) Quanta Services Inc (PWR) IBM (IBM) BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Coop Coin (COOP) SONM (SNM) MYR Group, Inc. (MYRG) DXC Technology Co (DXC) The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Superp (SUP) Mosaic Co (MOS) Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL) RAMP (RAMP) Curtiss-Wright Corp. (CW) KIRA (KEX) Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) Carpenter Technology Corp (CRS) GLOBANT S.A. (GLOB) Acala Token (ACA) GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@Larryjamieson_ Glencore (the commodity trading side not the mines) Trafigura Vitol and Cargill"
X Link 2023-07-02T12:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TommyDeepwater @whyallthecussin Do you know how much of $NOV's offshore business is fully tied to newbuilds vs just benefiting from higher drilling activity in offshore / upgrading existing ships / re-activating stacked ships. Agree with you on newbuilds but not sure if they're 100% tied to newbuilds"
X Link 2023-07-14T13:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ajncunha $DXC getting smoked on guide down"
X Link 2023-08-03T19:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@sinstockpapi $AMBP capital allocation will always suck because the Irish holdco wants dividends because it also is over-leveraged. Also makes for significant selling pressure if the stock starts working"
X Link 2023-08-24T07:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ShippingNews8 @PythiaR @cap_zay $PRIM a very similar version at a more reasonable valuation but definitely less clean than $PWR"
X Link 2023-08-29T10:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CapitalFang @kingdomcapadv Do you have data or a sense on how bad EU or NA aftermarket has been in the past during tough times. i wonder how much lower it can really go"
X Link 2023-08-31T16:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@orrdavid Have you ever tracked the ISAP enrollment data provided by ICE for $GEO's Electronic Monitoring business. It's been down and to the right every week since January even after the lift of Title 42"
X Link 2023-09-18T11:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@orrdavid Say 45% of EBITDA in FY22. Smartlink ATD enrollment number for $GEO was 280k in late [----] today it's 180k so down close to 40%. Now there's a fair case to be made that it's the bottom for the decline and it does seem to have stabilized but I find I have very little visibility"
X Link 2023-09-18T13:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Is there a good $DLR or $EQIX short write up anywhere Everybody seems to be bearish and talk about it all the time but seems like nobody put it in writing in one post"
X Link 2023-09-19T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BitMoreLeverage @Rebrand_As_Y Oh it's publicly traded Best I can do is down 25% for no reason"
X Link 2023-10-03T22:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I don't understand how $GEO is rallying while SmartLink data sucks. ATD enrollment is down 40%+ YTD even with EBITDA normalizing in the prison business that makes consensus way too high and a numbers cut on that cap structure is a shitty set up. Am I not getting something"
X Link 2023-10-17T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BitMoreLeverage Or bear case $GEO's space between bars is larger than normal because all americans are fat now that they take ozempic they can slip between the bars and escape leading to lower occupancy"
X Link 2023-10-17T18:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CapitalFang $SUP Really not bad at all considering strike and germany deconsolidation. Revenue not really a meaningful metric with aluminum pass-through EBITDA was solid and in line and guidance cut I find less bad than I expected with the UAW strike"
X Link 2023-11-01T12:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$SUP definitely a risky investment considering the capital structure but below 4x levered on EBITDA generated from volumes 20% below [----] levels in a year with massive EU destocking a UAW strike and interest rates going from 2-5%"
X Link 2023-11-01T13:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$SUP at [----] volume levels (not crazy after [--] years of recessionary light vehicle sales) at the new content per wheel has $265M+ of EBITDA power which at 5x EBITDA is a $21 stock an [--] bagger. Would also make it 2.6x levered assuming [--] debt paydown and including the pref"
X Link 2023-11-01T13:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@deusexdividend @BitMoreLeverage @ootelloo @ToffCap I dont find it to be a tough quarter. You could clearly see MAP price changes much better execution than $MOS who's the [---] pound gorilla. Every metric came in above consensus"
X Link 2023-11-09T00:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DakotasTwits $CXW simpler pure prison exposure. BI might be a better business but ATD enrollment fluctuated massively going way down recently with very little explanation from management as to why. Also overall $GEO management team always felt shadier and less open than $CXW's"
X Link 2023-11-27T23:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Then $SSNT share count post 1:8 split is 0.66M shares which means SSNT holders own 0.15% of the company pro forma. But at current stock price pre-market of $6 so post split $48 that gives the pro forma company $21Bn of market cap despite only having $2.6Bn of cash raised"
X Link 2023-12-04T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Feels very stretched Brad Jacobs is top tier but $SSNT stock price gives him $18Bn of value created from the start. Except if my math is wrong which it could be. Value of cash is $0.75 per share post dilution + $3.6 which is the value of $SSNT pre-deal so for the spin"
X Link 2023-12-04T13:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CfaRoark @okieinvestor Yep I get to the same math $42bn market cap for $SSNT assuming this stock price holds into the convertible and warrant issuance. It's nuts"
X Link 2023-12-04T15:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@GrandTokamak Levered credit bureaus like $TRU"
X Link 2023-12-12T12:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@InflexioSearch And $GM printing really nice results $SUP's largest customer by far at around 25% of revenue"
X Link 2024-01-30T14:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@100xCompounding Hey interesting stuff. I am wondering where did you get the info that the infrastructure for CCS is already there My understanding is that to make it blue it's at the hydrogen level not the ammonia level and so LXU can't claim 45Q credits on any of their existing plants"
X Link 2024-02-07T16:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@marketplunger1 Why would anybody own juniors here when the cost of capital is high tons of alternative investments that generate cash and best case scenario if your mine is funded it gets to trade at 3-4x EBITDA once built"
X Link 2024-02-15T17:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DeepSailCapital $BMI _Crazy valuation _Private competitor Kamstrup rose from 0% to 10% market share in a couple years _Water utility inventory levels super elevated likely to mean they overshipped demand and will suffer from destock _Gonna lose back share to $XYL from [----] supply chain issues"
X Link 2024-04-02T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@asteroid_b326 @DeepSailCapital Well $BMI made the unique strategy of owning their distribution so you can check their own inventories. For other meter oems its CNM and FERG. But here I am talking about inventory at the water utility level not the distributor level"
X Link 2024-04-03T02:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DannyOcean555 Everybody hates it I think everybody's wrong. $LSPD set up to me looks like $FOUR when they were integrating all their acquisitions and turned profitable all of a sudden (not that I expect them to get to 50% EBITDA margins). Huge net cash balance sheet limits downside"
X Link 2024-04-04T00:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@catalyst_seeker @SohnConf This might be a stupid question but why is $SBNY trading I thought it was acquired by NYCB in receivership. I don't see any filings outside a 13D"
X Link 2024-04-04T00:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DannyOcean555 At that valuation I'd rather own $PRIM which I think is still a bit below 8x and has exposure to solar T&D and then the same exposure as $CTRI. $CTRI strikes me as having the verticals least exposed to growth of the group ( $PWR $MYRG $MTZ $PRIM )"
X Link 2024-04-10T01:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$KD starting to get some love so I figured it'd be useful for some if there was a small write up on it here. Been around this one for about a year so I've had some time to understand it. Kyndryl is the world's largest IT Infrastructure company yet you've never heard of it"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$KD's real historical name is IBM GTS. It was IBM's internal infrastructure service company historically focused on managing IBM's mainframes now called zSystems. Like you'd think this business peaked in the early 2010s and has been slowly declining since"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"As $IBM becomes less and less focused on making money on the mainframe and wants to market itself as a software and consulting company they thought it was smart to spin-off their GTS business under the name Kyndryl in November 2021"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Before digging into the spin it's good to understand that $KD's goal within IBM was never really to make money it was to push business for IBM mainframe and maybe layer on some other solutions to make a bit of margin. The bulk of revenue was driven by buying large mainframes"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Well the management did just that. They purposefully shed business especially the reseller type work where they buy mainframes on BS on behalf of the customer no more of that. $KD will happily manage your IT but won't make it their primary business to procure equipment"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"They went ahead and certified their workforce as well as hired externally to learn how to handle cloud environments instead of just mainframe. They signed partnerships with every big name in tech from AWS Azure Google Cloud Cloudflare SAP VMware"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Hyperscalers today are $500M of revenue and the mainframe is down to 30% of the business. They also grew a consulting business from close to 0% to now 15% of revenue at much higher margins"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

".the business has embedded earnings power of $16Bn * 7.7% (not 9% since it's 85% of revenue at 9% and assume 15% at 0%) gets you to $4 of EPS at 25% tax rate. Beyond that their FCF conversion is near 100% of pre-tax income so that's $5 per share of FCF in 2-3 years"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"So $KD today trades at 5x FY27 FCF per share. Now that we've established it's cheap what is there to be excited about Since it's not a space people love (see $DXC $ATOS $UIS)"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"On top of that a lot of the worry around $KD is the demise of the mainframe which is still about 30% of their business. I advise you to go look up zSystem sales growth at IBM. The mainframe is far from dead it's very reliable when it comes to high uptime applications"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@100xCompounding Great to hear. And did they touch on the recent price decrease in chlorine from about a month ago Spot price on BBG seems to be down 6-7% and that's after chlorine not having moved for basically multi-years since the huge increase. Are some competitors cracking"
X Link 2024-05-14T18:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Little $TSSI quarter recap: _Revenue $15.9M +141% YoY. Driven by very strong growth in procurement but a still slow start to integration and deployment revenue which is normal for the seasonally low quarter. _Adj. EBITDA $0.5M huge improvement from -$0.4M of losses last year"
X Link 2024-05-15T00:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"_FCF $2.6M very high number but partially driven by working cap unwind nonetheless great to see. Overall a great seasonally low quarter where they were able to show that they can be profitable every quarter from now on despite integration revenue having yet to ramp"
X Link 2024-05-15T00:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Sounds like H2 is when you really see the investments and optimization made in the integration kicking in. Even mentioning potential capacity additions financed by their big customer"
X Link 2024-05-15T00:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Overall the stock today sitting at $1.4 (what a move) is $31M of market cap with $14.4M of net cash so an EV of $16.5M. I am fairly confident that they'll make between $3.5-4.0M of EBITDA this year and on an exit run rate that's higher. Stock is 4x EBITDA (at $1.4)"
X Link 2024-05-15T00:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Not sure how this plays out for $TSSI but $DELL (their only customer) definitely becoming the partner of choice of $NVDA maybe over $SMCI. Directionally positive"
X Link 2024-05-20T18:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Jaro_rogue What do you mean by unprecedented look back at most prior semiconductor cycles always follows Pareto's law leader always retains 80% share. x86 architecture with Intel zSystems and the mainframe code language with IBM"
X Link 2024-05-29T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Thoughts on $TSSI: First on the CFO leaving not a red flag was at a moment in his career were all his options vested and he wanted to do one lass business project before retiring. Process of replacing him going well"
X Link 2024-05-31T13:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BitMoreLeverage I even heard him say $IFOS.V fundamentals are out of this world and $MOS would be lucky to acquire them for $4"
X Link 2024-06-07T19:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@tulipinvestor @FundasyInvestor He gave you such a pretentious answer despite not talking about any of your points in the write up lol. No mention of peak E&S pricing peak admitted ceding share to E&S capacity is coming back to market admitted carriers recovered their OR through rate and will go after PIF"
X Link 2024-06-07T23:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ragingbullcap Thanks for the answer. I get it now your assumption is that it restarts from winterization through the remediation process but not as an actual operating mine. That makes sense. Was also looking to bounce my math off somebody curious if you have any thoughts on this bridge:"
X Link 2024-06-09T21:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ragingbullcap I think the most likely error is that my "company maker" project assumption is way too low. Ops revenue per 000s of cubic metres of water processed was $5300 in Q1 driven by the US that's an incredibly high level and not considered company maker so I am probably way too low"
X Link 2024-06-09T22:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Someone remind the market that $BRMI.TO now has $1.33 of cash per share with the stock trading at $0.90 $10M of EBITDA in a depressed year due to the actors and writers strike $15-20M normalized EBITDA and you own 8.8% of TPG's Talent and Entertainment Roll up"
X Link 2024-06-28T13:57Z [----] followers, 25.9K engagements

"With also $FFH.TO as the controlling shareholder of $BRMI.TO so incentivized to recoup their investment and realize the value"
X Link 2024-06-28T13:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@1WCML @InflexioSearch No else it wouldn't trade 33% below net cash on balance sheet for a profitable business. But things are turning they did the right thing by selling their 51% stake in Untitled for more than the entire market cap Fairfax is the controlling shareholder and I think now active"
X Link 2024-06-28T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@GuyImpatient Any manufacturer of HDPE you know Main one I know is $WMS but quite pricey and not the T&D end market. $OTTR maybe But not sure I want the utility exposure"
X Link 2024-06-29T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@gnufs @ArneUlland Not worried that $OTIS future earnings stream look horrible with China imploding deflation on the service side. Office and multifamily construction starts down anywhere from 20-40% in Europe and North America Like nothing is going well and the stock is at peak multiple"
X Link 2024-07-12T13:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Busy morning. First happy that $HTL.TO is getting acquired. Deal is fair. Good timing with this one. Then $FFH.TO buying $ZZZ.TO make of it what you will but Fairfax is seeing value in the Canadian markets and willing to buy out perhaps a positive read-through to $BRMI.TO"
X Link 2024-07-22T12:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Mike10947310 Cooper Creek Partners - very value oriented but some picks I like that I find are very under-owned I end up seeing them on the ownership table. Gator Capital for Financials. Turtle Creek for high quality stuff interesting if you find some of their stocks at a low usually"
X Link 2024-07-23T13:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CCM_Brett $IP with Andy Silvernail as CEO $MATR.TO for best in class management 5x EBITDA huge ramp in EBITDA in FY25 for high quality niche industrials"
X Link 2024-07-25T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Happy to share my latest idea: Pioneer Power Solutions $PPSI. I've made this my largest position and find it uniquely attractive with revenue and profits inflecting a cheap valuation and structurally growing end markets. Write up below: https://open.substack.com/pub/everyonehatespoetry/p/pioneer-power-solutions-nasdaq-ppsir=gaa8d&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/everyonehatespoetry/p/pioneer-power-solutions-nasdaq-ppsir=gaa8d&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2024-08-07T12:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Lipton7676 So anything in backlog is a non cancellable purchase order shipping within [--] months so the backlog is pretty iron clad. On top of that their end customer tend to be very creditworthy: governments Ford Walmart HEB etc. So i feel good about that risk"
X Link 2024-08-10T17:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@lebron_ex @BitMoreLeverage @deusexdividend Not the most catalyst rich name at the moment but great value. Will probably write it up publicly soon-ish"
X Link 2024-08-12T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The most important piece by far in $BRMI.TO release is the fact that the Insight deal was forced it's a put option so they had to buy them. But in the PR there's no more mention of M&A going forward as part of their capital allocation strategy"
X Link 2024-08-13T12:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Made a mistake on the first tweet so let me redo it. Will post on $BRMI.TO as fast as possible. Quarter is mediocre as expected very little content delivered in the quarter given the strike. Re-iterated the guidance. But what's more interesting is this:"
X Link 2024-08-13T12:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This is a relatively small order but interesting to see a partnership with SparkCharge which seems to have raised $78M since launch in 2017"
X Link 2024-08-14T13:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@mascarosergi Agree with you had similar expectation so sold in the 3s. My ongoing worry that remains tho is how much will $TSSI's increased power need cost And does it take an equity deal. These tend to ne very expensive with very long lead times so it's a bit of a wildcard"
X Link 2024-08-15T11:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Also wondering in your substack you talk about $25M of revenue and so you value it off that because it's in the offering memorandum. Are you referring to the footnote that says this: "Additional sources of funding reflected in this estimate include approximately $26948000 from existing customer contracts pursuant to which the Company expects to receive near term cash payments." Because that's a good catch but I think this number is abnormally large due to timing and isn't actually revenue else why would they guide [--] days later to $16-18M of revenue"
X Link 2024-08-21T00:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@BreakoutInvestr @sammccolgan I could reverse engineer to that math tho which would indicate it makes sense if you take H2 implied EBITDA annualize that and assume it's at say 30% EBITDA margin that gets you to $27M. Happy to talk by DM if it's easier. Definitely a very interesting idea"
X Link 2024-08-21T00:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@mascarosergi @InflexioSearch I hope seasonality is H2 weighted And that'd make sense given Christmas and US sports season"
X Link 2024-08-29T16:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"From somebody who owned at $0.88 and sold at [----]. There's tons of risk first $TSSI is a one customer company where Dell is everything capping the upside significantly the moment TSSI gets too profitable DELL can decide to force their margins way down almost immediately. They also need a big power expansion to handle AI rack wattage which can be very costly and time consuming (interconnection can take 2+ years) and yes I know Dell gave them a bit of money but nothing is penciled. Also this used to be a very cheap stock and is now very expensive pricing in lots of growth. I've met management a"
X Link 2024-09-01T22:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I also remember the sort of dream 2-3 yrs out EBITDA number being around $8-10M when talking with management and now at current valuation it wouldnt even be thay cheap. People need to chill with the Elon Musk and SMCI stuff. $TSSI is a [--] facility company for now its nuts to underwrite too much"
X Link 2024-09-01T22:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"You think $4M in EBITDA microcap $TSSI with [--] customer has just as much power in that relationship as $DELL the $82bn behemoth that designs the racks builds the majority of them has all the customer relationships all the supplier relationships much more talent in house and virtually unlimited financial resources"
X Link 2024-09-02T12:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$DXT.TO having a nice run. Never posted about it because it's a relatively small position with a dumb thesis but it seems to be playing out. Dirt cheap non economically tied high divi yield and sold their bad business. Great low risk business to own as Canada cuts rates"
X Link 2024-09-04T23:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ACapitalLP You think $FWRD can survive their debt load Curious on that one"
X Link 2024-09-05T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@AmheShay Not that I can see in the filings. We'll have to wait for the press release and call for more info"
X Link 2024-09-11T00:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$PPSI press release just what I wanted to see. Re-iterate the guidance reminding people that timing of orders makes it so that the year is very H2 weighted. Will file Q2 in the coming weeks is great news tho i don't want to get my hopes up too much on timing. Call will come after they file Q2 and likely to be very upbeat. We're here for H2 [--] and [----]. Alleluia $PPSI finally printed its 10Q for Q1 As expected it's a mediocre quarter didn't have much expectations management had laid out clearly that the year was H2 weighted backlog up a bit QoQ but not meaningfully because a lot of the orders"
X Link 2024-09-11T12:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@JoeCarr393 Love the fact that not a single person on $DRX.TO mentions the fact that backlog has been declining for multiple quarters now and might keep declining. It's a high fixed cost business if the plants start emptying out it gets ugly"
X Link 2024-09-12T15:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Do you have any idea how hard it is to have a nuclear newbuild The value is not in the land but the construction. Last plant built in the US was Vogtl [--] & [--] in Georgia. Which were massively delayed got finished [--] years later $17bn over the cost forecast bankrupted [--] general contractors and Westinghouse the manufacturer of the AP1000 reactor"
X Link 2024-09-23T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@0xMaxPower has a solid write up on his subst.k the link is in his bio. On my end here's what I see. $VLN.TO was supposed to get acquired at a 100%+ premium by Flowserve $FLS. The problem is the deal got squashed by the French Minister of Industry because of national security (Velan's French plants make valves for French nuclear reactors but also French nuclear subs and bombs). The deal fell through and stock is on its ass but since then the nuclear outlook has massively inflected which wasn't part of the value calculated in the $FLS deal. Velan manufactures valves their valves are in 90% of"
X Link 2024-09-30T14:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Great news on $VLN.TO. Westinghouse selected [--] suppliers to be part of the AP1000 reactor newbuilds going forward Curtiss Wright $CW Fox Ltd and $VLN.TO. AP1000 is the US' best modern nuclear reactor design and was the design used in Georgia at Vogtl the last newbuild made"
X Link 2024-10-03T16:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$PPSI could be a beneficiary of the two category [--] hurricanes we're seeing in a row which is pretty unprecedented. The e-Bloc product helps provide alternative power to places like grocery stores in case of grid outage. During the last Texas storm supermarkets using e-Bloc had power a couple news article about e-Bloc customer HEB showed they still had power. Could work out like $GNRC where the storm happens and orders follow after for the next one because people are more aware of the risk"
X Link 2024-10-07T17:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Good day today with $ZOMD.V finally getting some credit for the structural improvements on the back of the Chairman's interview. $PPSI reaction was surprising at the open and then corrected now up nicely as people make the math of what H2 could imply for [----] earnings. Tho the market rule of everything goes well you must get nailed will likely screw me over in the coming weeks because what comes around goes around"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"More good news on $VLN.TO. They're now the main supplier of valves for GE Hitachi Nuclear on the first ever SMR that'll be built in Darlington Ontario. Assuming everything goes well that likely means they'll be specd in on all incremental GE Hitachi SMR. Note that the density of valves per MW with SMRs is higher than large scale reactors so a benefit to Velan if the market goes that way"
X Link 2024-10-10T12:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Update for september. Still very strong. Just directional data for $PPSI's e-Boost end demand it's not exactly the same since these DCFC ports are like fast chargers put in permanently while e-Boost is a portable no permit product. Just some directional data on $PPSI's e-Boost business the EV charging business. Roll out keeps going strong nationwide for chargers. Numbers are even more impressive ex Tesla. https://t.co/1iSh08ptzh Just some directional data on $PPSI's e-Boost business the EV charging business. Roll out keeps going strong nationwide for chargers. Numbers are even more impressive"
X Link 2024-10-10T12:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Somebody tell the market $VLN.TO has the most nuclear exposure of the profitable nuclear companies. Any nuclear tied name from $SMR $OKLO $CW $BWXT $MIR $LEU $URNM is up big $VLN.TO by far the cheapest a real business and the most exposure of the profitable stocks"
X Link 2024-10-16T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Playing through uranium prices is very speculative. Playing through SMR companies who'll need money through [----] and are sciences projects too like $SMR and $OKLO. In my opinion you have to go for real businesses and the most exposed by far are $MIR and $VLN.TO and to a lesser extent $CW $BWXT $ATRL.TO $ARE.TO. Exposure is very rare so will likely get a big premium"
X Link 2024-10-16T19:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Names that benefit from the re-starts and from existing plants running at higher utilization rates benefit tangibly at first. Think $MIR $VLN.TO $BWXT Then everyone gets excited when the first North American newbuild will get announced likely the South Carolina one that was half started. People will bid up anything but likely the contractors like $FLR and $ARE.TO who do this stuff. They'll bid all kinds of exposure from the ones that I listed in part [--] but also $CW on AP1000 wins or engineering shops like $ATRL.TO. Then we'll face the harsh reality that nuclear newbuilds are very very hard to"
X Link 2024-10-19T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"What will be funny is the unbelievable of grift coming from junior miners company with tiny irrelevant exposures new technologies science projects with no future etc. Safest bet is to bet on the established players who benefit no matter what. Even if SMRs dominate you need more valves cables and radiation detection equipment per MW in an SMR than a large scale reactor so incumbents benefit anyway"
X Link 2024-10-19T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"It's a good recap. My personal opinion/exposure is long $VLN.TO if you're not scared of illiquidity and $MIR best way to play nuclear in a liquid way. $MIR also very well run with a very legit chairman great business and their medical segment with radiopharma is also very promising"
X Link 2024-10-20T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"No longer involved in $TSSI but this news today of the facility expansion is incredibly bullish. I sold mostly because I was scared of the scale of the capex necessary to upgrade the power at their facility and that they'd likely need equity to do it. Well turns out they can fund it with cash and debt which is incredible. Godspeed to the ones still long this is a great outcome for $TSSI"
X Link 2024-10-24T13:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"So it depends on the segment the main thing is this isn't a capex business like it used to be as an oilfield service provider. Flexpipe is essentially a consumable every time you drill a well you need to connect a pipe to take the oil into a gathering unit or into a midstream facility. The norm for years was line pipe which requires you to weld steel together and which you can't re-use. Flexpipe is pipes on a reel that you unspool making it much cheaper and easier to install. You need new pipes all the time assuming you don't just stop producing oil. Xerxes the fuel tanks this you could call"
X Link 2024-10-29T15:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Btw what's funny is that $MATR.TO actually dominates in most of the markets they play in it's a perfect example of a niche industrial business. Xerxes is the #1 player by a good amount Flexpipe is a duopoly between $WHD's Flexsteel and MATR's Flexpipe wire and cable is more competitive as a whole but in their end markets like rail/nuclear/distribution/T&D it can be pretty concentrated by end use and DSG-Canusa they're also dominant I think their machines are in the majority of Western auto OEMs"
X Link 2024-10-29T15:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Good read through for $VLN.TO on the $FLS quarter. Flowserve guided down on end markets unrelated to Velan's end markets and the stock is up in part due to their bullishness on power and nuclear. Flowserve saw $100M+ of nuclear bookings in the quarter with project funnel up 20% YoY. $FLS is a direct comp to $VLN.TO in nuclear. From the Q3 [----] call: "In the quarter nuclear activity saw particular strength with more than $100 million in bookings. We are currently seeing a combination of life extensions on existing assets in North America and Europe combined with new nuclear capacity being"
X Link 2024-10-29T16:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I think $FLS came in so strong with the 130% bid that a lot of people walked away knowing they couldn't match it. I think the big difference since January [----] is the big inflection in the outlook for nuclear. Was a nice fit for a strategic back then with lots of synergies but meh end markets. Now it's the exposure everyone dreams of. I mean Flowserve talked about nuclear during half their earnings call and it's sub 5% of their revenue. I think any flow control/valve company would love to own it. Like an Emerson Graco and many others. I think there'd also be a lot of PE interest given the"
X Link 2024-10-29T23:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Great update on $PPSI. Gonna just wait for Q3 [--] call before giving my detailed thoughts but agree with everything @ideahive says Just dropped a new blog post with my more detailed thoughts on $PPSI's recent segment divestiture. I believe the setup remains attractive. For more details visit the Idea Hive blog. https://t.co/q32YLz1Yv6 Just dropped a new blog post with my more detailed thoughts on $PPSI's recent segment divestiture. I believe the setup remains attractive. For more details visit the Idea Hive blog. https://t.co/q32YLz1Yv6"
X Link 2024-10-31T13:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Alright so here's my view on why $PPSI after the sale is very compelling risk/reward and why the stock reaction makes no sense to me. After the sale of the Electrical Infrastructure business for 11x [----] EBITDA they've significantly de-risked the story in my opinion. First on the pro forma. $6M of net cash prior to the deal the sale adds $50M unclear to me what taxes and fees are involved $48M of it cash and $2M ownership in the new company. So PF net cash (assuming no major taxes they also have a decent chunk of NOLs) is $56M. Market cap at $6.1 per share is $66M so EV of RemainCo is $10M."
X Link 2024-11-03T19:24Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements

"@winsteadscap The production cuts we're gonna see out of $CNH and $DE are going to be pretty nuts over end of year and likely early 2025"
X Link 2024-11-05T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mike10947310 $LOGC"
X Link 2024-11-05T17:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ACapitalLP Got any good write ups or ways to ramp on this"
X Link 2024-11-06T01:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$KD has been treated like shit by the market after crushing it every quarter. Well holy shit signings +130% YoY and +80% QoQ. This stock better rip way higher now"
X Link 2024-11-06T21:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Own that $ACFN thanks to @InflexioSearch. Monster quarter really good story so far with significant inflection in the business. Phenomenal results for $ACFN - rev +46% EPS $0.29 vs $0.01 last year. Hardware sale ex-$5m contract was still up 18% YoY & +2% QoQ Massive operating leverage and these numbers will sustain for another [--] years. Monitoring service hasn't even kicked in yet which is 90%+ GM. Phenomenal results for $ACFN - rev +46% EPS $0.29 vs $0.01 last year. Hardware sale ex-$5m contract was still up 18% YoY & +2% QoQ Massive operating leverage and these numbers will sustain for"
X Link 2024-11-08T01:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"For anyone involved in $VLN.TO. Highly recommend going through $ATRL.TO (Atkins Realis former SNC Lavalin) results and call. Very bullish nuclear and Canadian nuclear specifically. All bodes very well for Velan"
X Link 2024-11-14T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$PPSI yeehaw"
X Link 2024-11-14T14:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@NestBetter Very small but $NCI.V an incredible combination of those"
X Link 2024-11-23T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"First on $FLS it's a solid story with the 80/20 now and the Trump election. I struggle to get much higher than 50% upside within 2-3 years which is pretty good nonetheless. I find it is a bit comical tho that they advertise nuclear so hard when it's like mid single digit of revenue. On $VLN.TO the CEO's comp is 50%+ paid in shares and the awards are based on execution on EBITDA working cap reduction and [--] year margin performance. He's very legit. The guy was high up at $EMR and $ROP which are the absolute best at what they do in terms of operational efficiency. From what I've found out"
X Link 2024-11-25T14:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Same here out of $ACFN great find by @InflexioSearch I've exited my $ACFN position. +70% in [--] months - hard to beat this sort of return. Congrats to all who joined. Valuation is still undemanding but much higher than [--] months ago. Still a great story but I am looking to redeploy to other opportunities I've exited my $ACFN position. +70% in [--] months - hard to beat this sort of return. Congrats to all who joined. Valuation is still undemanding but much higher than [--] months ago. Still a great story but I am looking to redeploy to other opportunities"
X Link 2024-11-27T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ZOMD.V results (in USD) are out and look absolutely amazing. _Revenue $16.7M +135% YoY +20% QoQ _Adj. EBITDA $3.9M +570% YoY +27% QoQ _Net Income $3.2M +47% QoQ _Cashflow from ops $2.7M _FCF $2.5M We'll see how the call goes but those are amazing results. Stock's going higher"
X Link 2024-11-29T13:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@SebKrog Someone call the SEC $ZOMD.V is a fraud They said their stock was cheap Investors should sell all their $GM shares as well since the CFO at Barclays said his stock was cheap"
X Link 2024-11-29T16:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@CJ0pp3l @unfixed_income @RyukiTamano I agree with that thought but what's funny is that the direct comp to Flexpipe $WHD is at an ATH Funny to see the divergence"
X Link 2024-11-30T13:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"That's a very strange rule. Industrials have been one of the fastest growing industries over the past [--] years. You're telling me you can't underwrite growth of more than mid single digits at Eaton Powell Industries Comfort Systems Quanta Services Grainger Vertiv Heico Transdigm"
X Link 2024-11-30T15:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Happy to share my new write up on $NCI.V. Currently my largest position. I think it has a unique combination of fast profitable growth highly aligned insiders and a unique tailwind in Saudi Vision [----]. Write up is available in my bio"
X Link 2024-12-04T15:17Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements

"Published some updated thoughts on $VLN.TO (link in bio). I still really like the story and I think it has multi-bagger potential if the nuclear cycle keeps playing out and they execute on getting to halfway decent margins with the likely odds of a takeout at any time. I find the move down from the highs makes little sense especially compared to how peers have traded in the nuclear/power space and I highlight just how cheap Velan is vs peers. Importantly as well the outlook for nuclear has only gotten better in recent weeks Mirion Technologies doing a nice job of highlighting the very"
X Link 2024-12-11T18:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"And here's a comp sheet to show just how cheap $VLN.TO is. Now bear in mind my EBITDA estimate might be wrong and I don't include the asbestos liability in the cap structure but it's more to give you an idea of what peers trade at and just how accretive this would be for them"
X Link 2024-12-11T19:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ideahive Also the industry outlook in SBS is really gross with a big capavity addition coming"
X Link 2024-12-18T09:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SFarringtonBKC @Miroslavtepnek1 @DheerajNam @AltaFoxCapital Not debating anything lol. I own $FOA in size just saying it isn't anywhere near sub 1x earnings. (I am a sub btw)"
X Link 2024-12-18T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@blondesnmoney"
X Link 2024-12-28T17:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@NestBetter Where I struggle there is if I look back at historical financials whenever there's a downcycle in O&G they get absolutely obliterated almost beyond how bad it is for OFS stocks or regular OEMs like $NOV. Not sure if something structural changed but that worries me"
X Link 2024-12-30T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Uzocapital @NestBetter Do you know what was the mix like in prior downcycles like the one that started in [----] or in 08"
X Link 2024-12-30T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Looking for anyone who's done work on Ocwen Financial (now called Onity Group) ticker $ONIT (formerly $OCN). Would love to talk to someone who's done work or any FIG specialists that have a history with the name"
X Link 2025-01-04T21:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Interesting read-through for $VLN.TO. Canadian nuclear company Kinectrics was acquired for $525M by $BWXT. Kinectrics isn't a direct comp to Velan it's more of a testing and service provider which is reflected in the 14x EBITDA multiple BWXT paid for it. It does show however the appetite for nuclear assets despite the fact that there aren't many"
X Link 2025-01-07T19:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Basically $FOA's largest business is originating and then servicing reverse mortgages that are insured by the FHA. $FOA does not keep all that risk on balance sheet because it'd be way too costly and it would be difficult to grow so they take these loans and securitize them into Ginnie Mae HMBS. A Ginnie Mae HMBS is a Mortgage Backed Security but with reverse mortgages instead. The risk that $FOA does take is that in the case of a default they need to advance the missed payment to the HMBS investors and wait to be re-imbursed by the FHA which insures these loans. The problem was that the"
X Link 2025-01-08T12:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Quick idea on $MMY.V Monument Mining. It's a gold miner based in Malaysia trading sub 1.5x EBITDA with a net cash balance sheet but the real appeal is that they seem to have meaningful antimony exposure the commodity that just went 3x in the last couple of months (chart below). They recently switched their mining method to Sulphide Gold production which has led to a massive inflection of profitability in their gold mining operations but is also starting to lead to Antimony production as part of gold production. The most interesting piece This recent press release from December 9th in which"
X Link 2025-01-08T15:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Thanks to @SFarringtonBKC for finding the idea in his substack originally. @marketplunger1 @Mike10947310 this feels up your respective alleys and @joinyellowbrick count me in for a pitch"
X Link 2025-01-08T15:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$NCI.V just published the link to their new AI offering on LinkedIn: So far they offer sales assistants news scrapers financial document analysis and similarity recognition. Nothing groundbreaking but I think this can appeal to their customers and you can clearly see the cultural aspect well understood by NTG for their Saudi customers. Maybe too early to tell but they have very legit partners: Microsoft Dell Oracle Samsung. Always nice to see a small company think big. https://ntgclarityai.com/ https://ntgclarityai.com/ https://ntgclarityai.com/ https://ntgclarityai.com/"
X Link 2025-01-09T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Update: I've sold my $ZOMD.V position. It's been a great stock what a ride. From $0.18 to where we are today 4-5x higher. I've been selling since Q3 [--] but mostly since [----] (for tax reasons) and sold the final piece recently. Nothing against the stock it's been a great stock the few things I am worried about would be a potential TikTok ban which could pose some issues around finding the right ad ROI. But overall the recent announcement of customers was great and godspeed to whomever is still long. I just felt like cashing it in after such a crazy ride it is an Israeli ad-tech stock after"
X Link 2025-01-14T20:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@blondesnmoney Nice dude"
X Link 2025-01-14T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Very interesting new deck by NTG Clarity $NCI.V. Was just released today. It's overall a much better deck but beyond that has some very interesting tidbits that comfort me that the thesis is on track. [--] - Backlog as of Q4 is at $100M+ with $38M of awards in Q4 $22M in December alone. This is a great sign and 20%+ QoQ growth in backlog. [--] - Analyst estimates have moved up and they disclosed they expect to be CFFO positive despite the high growth. Now this isn't guidance but seeing that the few analysts covering it talk to management often it's probably in the right ballpark. _2025 Revenue $75M"
X Link 2025-01-15T01:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Will post detailed thoughts on $VLN.TO today. Long story short it's very good. Framatome acquiring Velan France for a ton of money is an amazing outcome. For the record from the s.bstack ;)"
X Link 2025-01-15T12:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Blinklebloop $VLN.TO is trying to be the least subtle imaginable to tell people they're going to sell. My favorite is "Eliminates a potential obstacle if a future strategic opportunity arises". The deal with $FLS fell-through because of the French they just got rid of the French"
X Link 2025-01-15T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Thoughts on $VLN.TO announcements Now available in my bio where I get into details. The big picture: _Sold Velan France for a monster price near $200M USD for 25% of revenue or 2x sales. _Settled all asbestos liabilities for $146M. _Reported all time record in Q3 EBITDA margins at 19.5% But more importantly removing the French business which was the reason for the failed $FLS acquisition and their commentary on strategic review makes me highly confident they're selling RemainCo significantly higher than current price in the near future"
X Link 2025-01-15T17:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Mogas has O&G exposure and a little bit of combined cycle natural gas exposure but no nuclear that I am aware of or see on their website. More importantly $FLS won't just stop at a single acquisition. And given that all they want to talk about nowadays is nuclear despite it only being 8% of their revenue. They mentioned "nuclear" [--] times on their latest earnings call I don't think they've moved on. But more importantly $FLS is just one bidder amongst many"
X Link 2025-01-15T18:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@GoldenBen @Flowserve @Atrium_Research @BitMoreLeverage @JulianKlymochko Very cool find Not entirely sure why moving it to a Nova Scotia company changes something for them but the fact that they did it means they're definitely either working on the deal or in talks with the company. Else they would have left the structure intact or let it expire"
X Link 2025-01-20T18:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Cool find by @GoldenBen. If someone has a clear interpretation I'd be curious. My gut feel tho is if Flowserve wasn't interested in $VLN.TO they would have just let the old legal vehicle expire instead of changing the structure altogether. 1/2 @Flowserve wants to have a foothold in Canada. Late [----] the Cda buyco that made the Velan bid [--] years ago was discontinued and continued under the laws of Nova-Scotia. New entity is a ULC. $FLS $VLN.TO @Atrium_Research @BitMoreLeverage @JulianKlymochko @everyonehatesp1 https://t.co/9vKxvt8dY4 1/2 @Flowserve wants to have a foothold in Canada. Late 2024"
X Link 2025-01-20T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Excellent pitch. Got long $THRY because of this pitch a couple hours ago"
X Link 2025-01-27T20:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Aureliusltd28 Mortgage servicers P&C insurers annuity sellers and any company that has a very large fixed investment where pricing power remains as long as no new supply comes on and higher rates make it too costly to have newbuilds $KEX for example"
X Link 2025-02-13T14:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"In [----] came a brand new management team from the merger with PHH. They spent the last [--] years fixing up operations settling all lawsuits lifting all bans and cutting costs by over 50% while de-leveraging and pushing back maturities. $ONIT is now structurally profitable but no one cares"
X Link 2025-03-03T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ONIT sticks out like a sore thumb relative to peers especially when you consider their off balance sheet hidden assets which adds about 40% to TBV per share. (For more detail read the full write-up in bio) I believe the market has to start caring about $ONIT else a take-out is likely"
X Link 2025-03-03T14:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"yeah their investor pres market share isn't the whole story. It's for HECM which is the FHA insured products but they've been growing outside of it. it also depends on what you measure it originations securitizations etc. But yes technically on HMBS issuances they lost some share tho arguably who cares if they grow it's normal in financials it's never winner takes all. But my guess is if you include non insured products they probably held share steady"
X Link 2025-03-12T12:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"That call aged well. $FOA down 25% was absurd when they smoked Q1 guide and originations are accelerating. Whoever is pounding $FOA into an optical miss is a bit crazy. I get that GAAP revenue shows negative but you've gotta learn to read their statements. Management re-iterated [----] guide of $2.6-3.0 of EPS and essentially guided Q1 to be similar to Q3 which would mean $0.67 of Whoever is pounding $FOA into an optical miss is a bit crazy. I get that GAAP revenue shows negative but you've gotta learn to read their statements. Management re-iterated [----] guide of $2.6-3.0 of EPS and"
X Link 2025-03-12T19:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FOA all the way for me. High uncertainty + low rates the ideal environment with earnings power of $2.6-3 this year but $4-5 with a market that lifts a bit. Industry been in a downcycle since [--] with FHA adding very difficult rules ever since for the first time we're seeing signs of de-regulation with HMBS [---] and the FHA now massively over-capitalized for HECMs at 25%"
X Link 2025-03-17T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$ONIT just made a monster announcement and no one has noticed. Investment thesis is playing out much faster than expected. They're presenting at Sidoti today and this was in the slide deck. Not only is Q1 trending very strongly likely ahead of consensus. But they signaled that they'll soon recognize their hidden asset the DTA. This adds 40% to TBV overnight And drastically reduces leverage. I thought this would happen by maybe YE25 it's great news and the stock trading at 0.4x TBV when peers are 1.2x is absurd. Added to my position"
X Link 2025-03-20T14:01Z [----] followers, 37K engagements

"Well this was easy alpha on $BRMI.TO. Will have to figure out the RTO structure but it's announced as 125% premium I am back in $BRMI.TO for a pretty dumb reason that no one seems to have caught. It doesn't show up in any of the news feeds you don't see it on Yahoo on Bloomberg etc. The only one who's caught it has had [--] likes and [--] RTs on his post @upnorthvalue. $BRMI.TO is https://t.co/EU9ViohXPt I am back in $BRMI.TO for a pretty dumb reason that no one seems to have caught. It doesn't show up in any of the news feeds you don't see it on Yahoo on Bloomberg etc. The only one who's caught it"
X Link 2025-03-24T11:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Big news $RKT buying $COOP in an all share deal. Reminder that $COOP is a direct comp to $ONIT. $RKT is paying roughly 1.8-1.9x TBV for $COOP. $ONIT obviously less quality than $COOP but trading at 0.4x TBV. Something is bound to happen here as the large players get even larger"
X Link 2025-03-31T12:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Incredible find. I am long $SONM Got a hot one for you all - $SONM Credit to @ToffCap who posted about it. Someone is offering $4.00 and the stock trades at $2.55 In [----] AJP took a 30%+ stake in the business around $8. In January [----] they filed a 13D with Orbic a strategic player in the space and a https://t.co/Odz0GIUKYF Got a hot one for you all - $SONM Credit to @ToffCap who posted about it. Someone is offering $4.00 and the stock trades at $2.55 In [----] AJP took a 30%+ stake in the business around $8. In January [----] they filed a 13D with Orbic a strategic player in the space and a"
X Link 2025-04-01T18:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Just some more quick thoughts on $SONM as I kept digging with @InflexioSearch First this is highly assymetric because AJP and Orbic are asking for an answer by Friday so there's a fire under the board's ass. Second the guy who runs AJP Jeffrey Wang used to be the Chairman of the Board (the one who can call an AGM) and left the job to the current Chairman but remained on the board. The new Chairman seems to have no ties to insiders and is paid very little in board fees so unlikely he is entrenched. Third I actually think there's a real chance the offer could get raised for a couple of reasons:"
X Link 2025-04-02T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@SFarringtonBKC @Geiger_Capital That's completely absurd. Go ahead remove all tariffs on Vietnam. Harley Davidson and Ford will sell stuff there Never. America forgot that outsourcing things has massively benefited them. Lets see Americans replace Bengalis in sweatshops making t shirts"
X Link 2025-04-02T23:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Was just an illustration. Japan's problem is demographic. Same thing happened in Taiwan Singapore etc. By outsourcing low value add jobs abroad America imported deflation which allowed it to have structurally lower rates and boost GDP per capita. The US has had the best GDP per capita growth in the world record low unemployment and we're acting like its living in horrible times. When McKinley raised tariffs the unemployment rate was 14%. Existing plants in America already cant find labor"
X Link 2025-04-03T03:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"On this day of reckoning good news out of $SONM. Change of provision added. Seems very likely they get bought now"
X Link 2025-04-03T13:29Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements

"Actually even better on $SONM lol"
X Link 2025-04-03T13:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"2 take-outs under the radar in [--] days is absurd. Also long $CNTM. Near 100% upside on just them accepting the offer. I got another hot one $CNTM The stock is $0.88 and yesterday the top three shareholders submitted a takeover offer for $1.60. The stock shot up to $1.40+ but then faded. Top [--] shareholders have been accumulating a significant amount of shares in the open market and now are https://t.co/zpneE32QyO I got another hot one $CNTM The stock is $0.88 and yesterday the top three shareholders submitted a takeover offer for $1.60. The stock shot up to $1.40+ but then faded. Top 3"
X Link 2025-04-03T17:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Big news $ONIT rumored to be putting itself up for sale. This just came out [--] min ago and there was actually an article [--] days ago about it too on the same website but that didn't make it through any of the news websites and doesn't show on bloomberg/factset. This is huge news and makes total sense after $COOP buyout at a monster premium to $ONIT"
X Link 2025-04-07T17:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Reminder that $COOP was bought out for 1.8x BV $ONIT has $73 of TBV per share trading at 0.36x TBV. Not saying Onity is as good of a servicer as Mr Cooper but this kind of valuation differential is insane. A buyout at 1x TBV is 175% upside"
X Link 2025-04-07T17:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Just published my latest high conviction idea: Neo Performance Materials $NEO.TO (you know where to find it). It is a massive call option on a trade war with China. History would tell us that if China puts an export ban on rare earth magnets NEO's EBITDA could go up 7x as one of the very few Western magnet makers. Even without that NEO is the cheapest business in rare earths with a 5% dividend yield net cash balance sheet at 3x EBITDA selling unprofitable assets. I believe it works in either scenarios"
X Link 2025-04-08T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@YellowLabLife $MP has massive China risk with 84% of its revenue being exports to China. $NEO.TO to me the clear winner on a rare earth ban especially neodymium magnets"
X Link 2025-04-10T18:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Extremely illiquid but own a big chunk of this $SPN.V New pitch out on $SPN.V Link in my Bio. I believe the business will benefit from this macro-environment driven by Trump's tariffs and potential inflationary pressure. Net cash tech stock is growing double-digit with 60%+ GM trading at 0.4x rev 5x EBITDA and a new product https://t.co/E15Lg8odTx New pitch out on $SPN.V Link in my Bio. I believe the business will benefit from this macro-environment driven by Trump's tariffs and potential inflationary pressure. Net cash tech stock is growing double-digit with 60%+ GM trading at 0.4x rev 5x"
X Link 2025-04-14T12:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$NCI.V printing tomorrow morning for those who care. Expect strong revenue growth and backlog but shitty margins as this is the big expense ramp up quarter ahead of the continued growth in [----] driven by training costs. Not sure if this matters tho since we're in April [----] and guidance is already out mostly what matters is forward looking commentary. Q1 will also have a bit of margin pressure but less and we're back to solid margins in Q2. NCI management did an interview not long ago confirming trends in Saudi remain strong despite some consulting related negative headlines:"
X Link 2025-04-14T17:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$NCI.V out with stellar Q4 [----] results: _Revenue $17.2M +109% YoY _Adj. EBITDA $4.3M 25% margin _EPS $0.07 _Backlog in excess of $105M I am pleasantly surprised and I suppose wrong on Q4 to me this was going to come in with 5-10% EBITDA margins as significant training costs were needed to ramp for the new contracts and based on the [----] implied guide but I guess management is adopting an under-promise and over-deliver approach which is great to see. Would be surprised if 25% margin was sustainable but definitely shows the [----] guide at 16-20% margin is conservative. The outlook commentary is"
X Link 2025-04-15T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Reminder that $NEO.TO is a real business and not an uneconomical project like $USAR and comes at a much cheaper valuation than its former owner $MP which is trying to get downstream like NEO is. It's not even trading at its fair value assuming no rare earth ban 4-5x mid-cycle EBITDA assuming no macro benefit. Will have the main ex China/Southeast Asia sintered magnet facility in Estonia completed this year. Just published my latest high conviction idea: Neo Performance Materials $NEO.TO (you know where to find it). It is a massive call option on a trade war with China. History would tell us"
X Link 2025-04-15T18:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ONIT Q1 [--] results were really solid. _Adj. EPS $2.50 (vs consensus $1.41) _GAAP EPS clean for the first time in a while with $2 of extra BV QoQ. _Adding $22 of Book Value per share with the DTA at year end. _22% ROE and re-iterate the guide of 16-18% ROE which I still believe is very conservative _Said they're well positioned in a recession given their expertise in special servicing (subprime) _Could benefit from market share gains due to the COOP/RKT merger as clients who conflict with $RKT will want to move away towards an independent like ONIT. The elephant in the room is no one even"
X Link 2025-04-30T13:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ABL casually printing 60%+ EPS growth trading at 10x EPS top [--] player in a massively under-penetrated industry is a wild sight"
X Link 2025-05-08T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Really solid results out of $NEO.TO. Beat across the board vs consensus and very strong fundamentally. C&O profitability the highlight for me. Estonia project on time on budget. Remains an extremely strategic asset in a bifurcated world. Today $NEO.TO announces its Q1 [----] results 📈 ✅ $17.1M Adjusted EBITDA (+59.2% YoY) ✅ European Magnet Facility on track for [----] ✅ Heavy Rare Earth Pilot Line in design ✅ Sold JAMR & ZAMR for $28M cash 🔗Full Release: https://t.co/nl0aY5muX1 https://t.co/d5JyHTO9Ng Today $NEO.TO announces its Q1 [----] results 📈 ✅ $17.1M Adjusted EBITDA (+59.2% YoY) ✅"
X Link 2025-05-09T12:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Quick pitch here before I write it up in details on stack. Getting really bullish $LAKE made it a large position. They make protective equipment for firemen and industrial uses. It was a boring poorly run business that mainly did industrial PPE and exploded during COVID. A year and a half ago a new CEO came in Jim Jenkins lawyer by trade who ran M&A at Transcat from 2020-2024. If you don't know TRNS it's an amazing company very good at M&A. I listened to a bunch of interviews of him and he seems like a stud. He decided to aggressively consolidate the fire safety industry since there isn't"
X Link 2025-05-12T14:55Z [----] followers, 22.9K engagements

"$LAKE presented at the @PlanetMicroCap showcase in Vegas encourage anyone interested to watch the replay that's how I found it And @majgeoinvesting @MSmicrocaps did a great interview in March of the CEO which I found was one of the most useful things to listen to"
X Link 2025-05-12T15:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Anyone work with KBW $ONIT presented at their virtual conference yesterday and stock traded really well on that day. Figured they sounded good but would love some details"
X Link 2025-05-21T13:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Bought some $MCS not much downside $CNK trading well I'm back into $MCS. Simple Thesis: [--]. Box Office been really strong since April and should be strong for rest of year [--]. Next [--] years set up is amazing from a movie-supply standpoint [--]. Comp $CNK is ripping and this is partly a catch-up trade. MCS trading at 5.5x my [----] I'm back into $MCS. Simple Thesis: [--]. Box Office been really strong since April and should be strong for rest of year [--]. Next [--] years set up is amazing from a movie-supply standpoint [--]. Comp $CNK is ripping and this is partly a catch-up trade. MCS trading at 5.5x my 2026"
X Link 2025-05-23T16:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$LAKE Interesting article by CFO Brew interviewing Roger Lakeland's CFO on tariffs. Essentially laying out why LAKE can deal with tariffs quite well given how widespread their footprint is. https://www.cfobrew.com/stories/2025/05/21/this-company-is-pulling-off-the-ideal-tariff-mitigation-strategy https://www.cfobrew.com/stories/2025/05/21/this-company-is-pulling-off-the-ideal-tariff-mitigation-strategy"
X Link 2025-05-27T12:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@DannyOcean555 @InflexioSearch has a great catch up trade in $MCS"
X Link 2025-05-27T15:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SmallCapKing2 Main negative is leverage obviously doesn't make me feel all warm and fuzzy"
X Link 2025-05-30T11:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Any thoughts on ferts or is this not your area Phosphate fundamentals have been strong for a while now and MAP now is parabolic. $MOS had a nice move up after its investor day but where the real value is seems to me like $IFOS.V. Pure play phosphate player in Idaho at like 1.5-2x EBITDA almost done its big capex spree to extend mine life significantly"
X Link 2025-05-30T22:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I was going through it. So PF the sale they're at around 4.8x levered (count $200M of EBITDA for TFP). I dont know if there's a ton of hope on growth given macro maybe the weakness is offset with some cost cutting. The dream I suppose is their [--] target sub $220M from the sale (count a bit of growth that I am sure was in the plan) so $1280M by [----]. 8x $1280M of EBITDA is $54 20% higher. The way the upside gets more interesting is with all FCF going to debt and I get that it's a large part of the story but technically it's the same as any levered stock that generates FCF. What am I missing"
X Link 2025-06-02T18:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Great find. I wouldn't be too worried about non-QM it's basically an answer to $FOA's success who did it first and gained a ton of share with their non-QM product. I think AI is a bit of a wildcard that can make mortgage servicing a wildly better business given how much labor is involved"
X Link 2025-06-05T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$LAKE reported Q1 [--] results. They're disappointing though not the end of the world. I won't re-hash the quarter I'll just put a link: Essentially a marginal revenue miss a big EBITDA miss but they re-iterated guidance and medium term targets of mid to high teens EBITDA margins. The bad: _Revenue was fine growing 29% and 2% organically a bit slow organically but understandable given peak tariff uncertainty in the quarter. _Margins sucked. Nearly 0% EBITDA margin. On the absolute very surprising. In practice you can explain most of it due to something called "purchased variance". Essentially"
X Link 2025-06-10T00:05Z [----] followers, 14.4K engagements

"In my world controversial very large capex that were painful in the moment but worked out in the long run. $CRS new aerospace titanium alloy mill pre-COVID. Bombardier and the Global clean sheet. GE with the engines. Maybe some very large mines or metal mills But for [--] that works [--] fail and usually the ones that work is cause they got lucky on the macro/commodity"
X Link 2025-06-10T01:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"For $ONIT $GHLD got acquired today for 1x BV and 11x EPS. It's primarily an originator but also has $100Bn of UPB in servicing so still a good comp for $ONIT. Second big take-out after $COOP by $RKT. Reminder that $ONIT has $74 of TBV per share with the DTA which will be recognized at year end. A 1x TBV would be 100%+ upside"
X Link 2025-06-18T18:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$LAKE has been an absolutely horrible stock post quarter. My only real loser that I've posted about and a large position. Sorry for those who lost money I am in the same boat. I haven't sold a share and I usually cut losers quickly maybe I am an idiot (very possible). We're getting to the point of absurdity and peak hate selling tho. The stock is down 35% from the highs on a shitty quarter partially driven by accounting charges that will reverse. The inventory alone is worth $9.5 a share and the net debt + net working capital is $9.6 a share. I guess the market thinks this business is now"
X Link 2025-06-18T19:33Z [----] followers, 17.6K engagements

"This might be dumb but in looking for ways to play this potential trend isn't it negative or neutral for everyone except maybe incumbents like Tether and Circle Because the whole point is how much cheaper it is (and speed) which would erode the economics of every single player. Paypal made a stablecoin but my guess is a stablecoin transaction would earn way less than a branded one no"
X Link 2025-06-21T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@dirtcheapstocks How can you have a positive EV/EBIT and trade at negative EV except if they have negative EBIt and then its just dumb"
X Link 2025-07-17T00:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$GLOB seems like a potentially cool trade. Market hates it best in class in AI I believe AI will drive a cycle in IT like the Cloud did because corporates don't "vibe code" things (I do but definitely aint enterprise grade). Has been a 20% topline grower maybe one more cut to numbers Not even sure they did a big one already. AI projects is already $350M of rev in [----] growing 110% and they're adapting the business model to AI. Wouldn't even be crazy to see them acquired by someone who wants their AI capability instead of building it"
X Link 2025-08-06T21:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@climate_is_ok @puppyeh1 I know it looks bad and hustle culture is king but I find when I hit a bad streak of picks id rather walk away look from afar and get my mojo back which can take some time. Optics on "taking time off" might force a manager to be stuck in the same rut and on tilt"
X Link 2025-08-12T00:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I went to the source and listened to that part of the interview. It's a big misrepresentation to just quote this. A little bit later he says that if you look at the models as independent businesses the business models work and the return on spend works. Now he may be lying talking his book bla bla but thats not at all what he intended to say"
X Link 2025-08-27T12:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@PythiaR Seems like the best investments in the market have been Danaher alumni run companies rather than Danaher itself especially since turnarounds are best for a lean manufacturing type guy"
X Link 2025-09-04T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I mean all of freight is undergoing a massive downturn that some will argue is worst than GFC ans while yes in things like TL theres too much supply there's clearly a big demand problem overall. Packaging volumes are also quite weak. Auto sales are not terrible but not at mid cycle for multiple years now. Tire distributors and manufacturers are saying customers are so broke they're waiting way longer to replace tires and buy low quality chinese imports. Low cost fuel stations like Murphy say customers are now going out of their way doing extra distance to pay a bit cheaper. Those are pretty"
X Link 2025-09-14T11:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@sidecarcap Do you have good examples of CEOs that hurt near term profitability meaningfully and it led to LT value I agree with the idea but in practice ive found the best companies rarely need to sacrifice short term results for the sake of the long term"
X Link 2025-09-20T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@variantview_X @peter_mantas Mind expanding I sort of know the story with the pension assets but had no idea they had a healthcare business"
X Link 2025-09-26T18:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"They did but not too worried here. Very typical that a fixed price builder starts a new contract for the first time fucks up and learns things and on the next award (this one) they tighten up contract terms and climbed up the learning curve and do much better. Very rare to see a double fuck up"
X Link 2025-09-29T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Industrials has steadily created value despite [--] growth in industrial production over the last [--] years. They've been amazing investments unlike software shitco vc backed #576 but yes people should really be all in wildly unprofitable company at $500bn EV there's definitely [--] hindsight to this analysis"
X Link 2025-09-30T11:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I did and the exposure/story sounds pretty awesome. But I still kind of struggle to make the math work I guess it could look better if I make some assumptions on their big capex plan and some return on capital there but that'd be a lot of assumptions. Intuitively today its $65M of revenue defense is 45% of revenue then rocket nozzles is 40% and structures is 40%. So say the big missile investments lead to $30M of incremental revenue We're at around $100M of revenue at 20% EBITDA margins stock is 17x EBITDA on those numbers assuming [--] incremental capex to get there I feel like I might be"
X Link 2025-09-30T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Isn't this kind of irrelevant for $DOCN given the Developer Cloud is more of a testing sandbox and the GPUs will be hosted at OpenAI's data centers (well their partners most likely) Or you think AMD will extend the sandbox and partner with DOCN to try and have them be a sort of $CRWV infra partner on this deal"
X Link 2025-10-06T20:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$TBRD $TBRD.TO saying in their letter that they shouldn't try to sell themselves because "a transformative transaction will almost certainly fail" is ironic considering they've told investors they want to acquire a company and potentially raise equity to do it"
X Link 2022-12-07T19:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@stressed_assets $PRIM the way cheaper version of $PWR and $MYRG"
X Link 2024-03-04T14:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@patefortworth @stressed_assets Not sure if it's the intent but you sound very condescending. Here's the "movie". Market bids up $PWR to be at the highest multiple makes sense tho I would argue not on that scale and bids up $MYRG with it. $MYRG has got worst conversion to cash than $PRIM despite having"
X Link 2024-03-04T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@patefortworth @stressed_assets I agree $PWR is a better biz. But what's crazy is the premium the market is willing to pay vs historical for that. PWR used to get a 1-2x premium over $PRIM for years now that's 10x+ of premium. And then the crazier part is the bidding up of $MYRG and $MTZ who aren't better"
X Link 2024-03-04T18:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@patefortworth @stressed_assets Especially considering that $PRIM was trading at a discount pre-COVID because of its outsized O&G exposure which is now near [--] with the mix now heavy in solar and utilities where $MYRG and $PWR are overweight too"
X Link 2024-03-04T18:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"First $KD unlike those peers focuses on mission critical work. Kyndryl might be running a large part of Delta's infrastructure with a mix of mainframe and cloud under 5+ year contracts. Getting rid of $KD is very difficult the sheer cost of a day of downtime is crazy"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This means unlike $DXC or consulting stocks like $ACN they're a lot less affected by the ebbs and flows of discretionary IT spending"
X Link 2024-05-10T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@AAGresearch @marketplunger1 I am not inventing some crazy concept that's why Q1 results were terrible they clearly said it om the call and I talked to $AMRK management the other day and they brought it up again. $SII is also an interesting way to play gold and silver without playing miners"
X Link 2024-06-11T21:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@GeoInvesting @SCMRE111 Is it a hunch that $MRCR benefits from AI or did you talk to them Cause filings keep it fairly generic talking about HVAC and plumbing in residential and commercial settings no call out of data center anywhere or even related keywords"
X Link 2024-07-22T01:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Maybe $EXPE is also dishonest since they said their stock was cheap in their Q3 [--] call. Or $FTV management at the Morgan Stanley Laguna conference. Or the CEO of $CDW who must have been dishonest when she said her company was undervalued at the Citi TMT conference. I mean come on now. It's an Israeli ad-tech stock of course there's risks but I try to not give opinions that aren't fully formed on stocks I don't know well. It's common decency. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862542706116849950 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862542706116849950"
X Link 2024-11-29T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@leevalueroach Truckload carriers ( $KNX $HTLD $MRTN.) Lumber producers ( $CFP.TO $IFP.TO.) Anything tied to the frac fleet count like oilfield services"
X Link 2025-02-16T22:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@bryandav1z @leevalueroach Very cool thread"
X Link 2025-02-17T17:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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