@MilkRoadMacro Avatar @MilkRoadMacro Milk Road Macro

Milk Road Macro posts on X about milk, gold, liquidity, $btc the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 75.74% cryptocurrencies 14.71% stocks 5.15% countries 5.15% currencies 4.41% technology brands 2.21% exchanges #3574

Social topic influence milk #509, gold 15.44%, liquidity #3074, $btc #1356, silver 11.03%, breaking #1576, strong 8.82%, cycle #838, crypto #6125, in the 7.35%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @milkroad @m3melody @kalshi @deitaone @whitehouse @cryptorover @kobeissiletter @jakermcrypto @calebfranzen @whaleinsider @business @johnlukesam1 @tirothegreat @bitteljulien @geigercapital @polymarket @andreassteno @jessecoheninv @investingcom @cnbc

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) SPX6900 (SPX) Solana (SOL) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Hot take: We had a full cycle between late [----] and early [----]. This full cycle shape (upside-down U) can be seen across multiple charts: - S&P [---] earnings - Equity positioning - Growth expectations - Investor sentiment Looks like were at the start of a new cycle"
X Link 2025-09-13T15:00Z [----] followers, 26.1K engagements

"If youre a crypto investor listen to this. Charlie Munger explains what he did when his portfolio fell 50%. Save this to stay ahead of the curve. Crypto is in absolute shambles right now: - $BTC is down 44% from its October high - $ETH is down 58% from its last peak - $SOL is down nearly 70% from its highs Heres the Bitcoin story: After Trump was elected in November [----] Bitcoin rallied 78%. Those gains are now Crypto is in absolute shambles right now: - $BTC is down 44% from its October high - $ETH is down 58% from its last peak - $SOL is down nearly 70% from its highs Heres the Bitcoin"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:18Z [----] followers, 923.6K engagements

"BREAKING: Inflation just surprised to the downside (again). - Headline CPI: 2.4% (vs 2.5% expected) - Core CPI: (vs 2.5% expected) Core CPI is now the lowest it has been in the last [--] years. And markets are already reacting: Rate cut expectations are shifting forward as traders are now pricing in roughly a 30% chance of a cut by April. Just weeks ago June was seen as the likely starting point. If inflation continues to trend lower that timeline could move up. On top of that this print comes at the perfect time. After yesterdays sharp market selloff investors needed a calming data point."
X Link 2026-02-13T13:43Z [----] followers, 22K engagements

"@Geiger_Capital The last $1T rise happened in just [--] days"
X Link 2025-10-23T13:38Z [----] followers, 30.2K engagements

"Stanley Druckenmiller is widely considered one of the greatest hedge fund managers of all time. Heres the thesis that got him into $NVDA early. Save this for later. How do you turn $10000 into $26 million Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller did it by putting all his eggs into one basket. Save this to stay ahead of the curve. https://t.co/a7RsSWRN72 How do you turn $10000 into $26 million Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller did it by putting all his eggs into one basket. Save this to stay ahead of the curve. https://t.co/a7RsSWRN72"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:52Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements

"A narrative has emerged that Warsh will be hawkish on interest rates. But we disagree. He definitely was hawkish between [----] and [----] but his views have evolved since then. More details below 👇 https://t.co/laVhBuu13H https://t.co/laVhBuu13H"
X Link 2026-02-15T17:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Weve been saying this for the past month: Once the government reopens expect a liquidity boost. And thats exactly whats happening. The TGAs target level was $850B but it overshot to nearly $960B during the shutdown. That extra $110B now needs to flow back into the economy. We just got the first $34B of the liquidity injection. Roughly $75B more to go. First notable slide in TGA: Treasury cash down $34BN to $925BN from $959BN https://t.co/S7l8w2DxmQ First notable slide in TGA: Treasury cash down $34BN to $925BN from $959BN https://t.co/S7l8w2DxmQ"
X Link 2025-11-19T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"QT ending = no more liquidity drain from markets But here's the reality check: This doesn't mean that QE will start right away. QE is expected to resume sometime in Q1 [----]. But this time QE will be very different. 👇 [--]. The pace of QE will be very slow The balance sheet is expected to increase by about $20bn per month. Which is tiny compared to the $800bn per month in [----]. [--]. The type of QE will be different The Fed will be buying treasury bills not treasury coupons. - Buying treasury coupons = real QE - Buying treasury bills = slow QE So here's the main takeaway: The overall direct effect"
X Link 2025-12-08T12:57Z [----] followers, 81K engagements

"The Fed balance sheet is expanding. But it's rising at an extremely slow space. The increase is coming from small Treasury bill purchases under what the Fed calls Reserve Management Purchases. While each purchase is a liquidity-positive event it's too small to to move risk assets on their own. Unless we see a true shock to the system this balance sheet expansion is likely to remain gradual. The current type of balance sheet expansion is also different. The Fed is currently buying Treasury Bill not coupons. - Buying treasury coupons = slow expansion - Buying treasury bills = rapid expansion"
X Link 2026-01-15T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Your Macro Framework Is Missing the Strongest Signal in the Market w/ @CalebFranzen Markets dont trade on how people feel. They trade on price earnings and breadth. Thats why fear can be everywhere while stocks keep making new highs. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:29 Why Sentiment Stays Bearish in a Bull Market 03:55 Q4 [----] GDP and Economic Resilience 07:00 Bull Market Strength Earnings and Valuations 11:05 Market Breadth Signals the Bull Is Broadening 12:50 Labor Market Normalization Isnt Bearish 15:31 Sponsor: Reserve 15:57 Retail Stocks at All-Time Highs Explained 18:46"
X Link 2026-01-20T21:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"How did Warren Buffet turn $10000 to $15 million In one of his most iconic interviews ever he breaks down how to make money from scratch. Save this rare footage youll be coming back to it"
X Link 2026-01-25T01:47Z [----] followers, 120K engagements

""We are heading for an economic crisis that will make [----] look like a Sunday school picnic." Peter Schiff think the collapse of the US dollar is a warning sign of something much bigger. He also believes central banks are replacing dollars with gold because they know whats coming. Do you agree with his take BREAKING: The US Dollar just hit a [--] year low. That might sound scary but it's actually a good thing for asset prices: If the US dollar / $DXY falls in value investors start looking elsewhere for returns. This is called the "currency debasement" trade. And right now that"
X Link 2026-01-28T12:08Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements

"Silver has mostly run its race. It'll be very tough to get in on the silver trade now. But here's another asset that's facing the same supply shortage as silver: Copper Billionaire investor Chamath breaks down why copper is the best investment for [----]. (save this for later) Silver crashed 14% yesterday. But here's why we think the silver run will continue: It comes down to simple economics. Demand is rising while supply isnt. Since [----] total silver supply has been stuck around [--] billion ounces. In fact mine production has actually fallen https://t.co/0XoWaW5jUH Silver crashed 14% yesterday."
X Link 2026-01-28T23:00Z [----] followers, 28.1K engagements

"The US government is currently in a partial shutdown. A shutdown is a direct drag on the economy. The longer it lasts the bigger the hit. Slower GDP growth isnt great for risk assets. During the last shutdown the S&P [---] essentially traded sideways for two months while $BTC slipped lower. We just came off the longest shutdown in history (43 days) and signs are pointing toward another one. Traditionally these shutdown typically last for a few days but it's still a possibility that we see another prolonged one. Markets may be underestimating the impact if this drags on again."
X Link 2026-02-01T17:30Z [----] followers, 10.7K engagements

"BREAKING: Trump launches a $12 billion Strategic Mineral Stockpile. Heres what you need to know: The goal of this initiative is to buy and store critical minerals such as rare earths gallium and cobalt. These materials are essential to modern technology and industry. The main objective is to reduce US dependence on China who currently dominates roughly 90% of global rare earth supply. This is part of broader efforts to counter China's leverage in EVs batteries semiconductors and defense tech. Out of the $12 billion total $10 billion comes from loans while private capital contributes just"
X Link 2026-02-02T12:40Z [----] followers, 25.4K engagements

"Heres why we're not worried about $BTC: During the AI boom most capital rushed into AI stocks and the Magnificent [--]. But if you look closer the Mag [--] have been trading sideways for the past four months (image 1). Instead capital has started to rotate. Small caps are now leading. The Russell [----] is breaking out of a multi-year consolidation (image 2). But the rotation doesnt stop there. After small caps capital typically flows into high-beta speculative assets which is captured by the BUZZ ETF. When BUZZ starts outperforming the S&P [---] Bitcoin usually follows (image 3). In short: Bitcoin"
X Link 2026-02-03T19:06Z [----] followers, 16.6K engagements

"BREAKING: Nonfarm payrolls rise [-----] well below expectations of $46000. Heres what this tells us about the labor market: The job market is clearly losing momentum. Hiring has slowed dramatically from December's already weak [-----]. Education and health services gained [-----] positions but professional services lost [-----] and manufacturing shed [----]. Another red flag: Private job creation for [----] totalled [------] which is roughly half of what we saw in [----]. In short the labor market is weakening on a year-over-year basis. But here's the silver lining: A softer labor market gives the Fed more"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:42Z [----] followers, 23.4K engagements

"The crypto market is down $1.7 trillion since October. Heres legendary investor Peter Lynch on how to handle market corrections. Save this for the next pullback. BREAKING: Crypto assets have lost a total of $1.7 trillion since their October peak per Bloomberg. BREAKING: Crypto assets have lost a total of $1.7 trillion since their October peak per Bloomberg"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:27Z [----] followers, 15.3K engagements

"@Polymarket"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:20Z [----] followers, 24K engagements

"And it's not just crypto. Everything is selling off today: - Gold is down - Silver is down - Stocks are down - The dollar is sliding Here are a few possible reasons: 1) Kevin Warsh His initial comments have him viewed as hawkish. But we think that's wrong. He used to be hawkish but has turned dovish after the AI boom. But most investors are still unsure and are still looking for a signal on his stance. 2) Geopolitical concerns As we STILL haven't reached a deal between US and Iran investors are pricing in rising tensions. This thesis makes sense for risk assets but why are gold and silver"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:37Z [----] followers, 23.9K engagements

"The Government Is Engineering a Business Cycle Surge Into [----] w/ @AndreasSteno ISM just printed [----]. Not because the economy is healing But because a tax rule is forcing every U.S. CFO to spend money this year. This cycle is being engineered into [----]. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:55 AI Is Killing the SaaS Model 03:39 Vibe Coding Replacing Software Licenses 05:29 Private Credits Huge Bet on Software 08:19 Why Apollo and Bitcoin Trade the Same 10:27 The Big Rotation: Software Hardware 11:56 Rare Earths and the China Decoupling 13:17 Why Central Banks Are Buying Hard Assets"
X Link 2026-02-05T18:26Z [----] followers, 44.8K engagements

"REMEMBER: The S&P [---] is less than 2% from all time highs. Despite software companies having a bloodbath this week the S&P [---] stayed afloat pretty easily. This is because strength is coming from other sectors. Since November [----] cyclical sectors have been ripping higher: - Industrials (stuff makers) is up 15% - Transports (stuff movers) is up 27% - Energy (stuff powerers) is up 22% This tells us something important. The market isnt being carried by a handful of tech stocks anymore its broadening out. This is a VERY healthy sign for the S&P [---]. And it's not just crypto. Everything is"
X Link 2026-02-07T19:28Z [----] followers, 13.7K engagements

"@WhiteHouse Lower mortgage rates = better for risk assets"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@JesseCohenInv He's talking about his [----] nomination. Warsh is still going to be the next Fed chair"
X Link 2026-02-10T07:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"New target for gold: $6000 For context gold is currently trading around $5030. A strategist at BNP Paribas expects gold to reach $6000/oz by the end of [----]. The key reasons behind this call: [--]. Persistent geopolitical risks [--]. Continued central bank buying [--]. Rising ETF inflows Zooming out the broader commodity complex also looks strong. The commodity index has just broken out of a multi-year basing pattern a move typically seen during business cycle expansions. That supports further upside for gold especially with central banks still accumulating. But the next major opportunity may be"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@WhaleInsider Here are other commodities that will do well in 2026: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021219736579981593 New target for gold: $6000 For context gold is currently trading around $5030. A strategist at BNP Paribas expects gold to reach $6000/oz by the end of [----]. The key reasons behind this call: [--]. Persistent geopolitical risks [--]. Continued central bank buying [--]. Rising ETF https://t.co/RK2mFv0Xcn https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021219736579981593 New target for gold: $6000 For context gold is currently trading around $5030. A strategist at BNP Paribas expects gold to"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@business Gold will rise but other commodities will rise with it. We've outlined [--] standout trades below: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021219736579981593 https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021219736579981593"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Investingcom Apart from gold here are other commodities that we think will do well in 2026: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021219736579981593 https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021219736579981593"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"BREAKING: $BTC breaks below $68000. But here's some good news for crypto investors: The Russell [----] is breaking out of a multi-year consolidation. Over the past [--] years the Russell has only seen six major breakouts like this prior to the current one. Every time it happened it occurred during the strongest phases of global equity bull markets. Post-breakout the Russells average rally was 49%. Even more interesting: Every major Russell [----] breakout has been followed shortly after by a major Bitcoin breakout. The sample size is small but so far this relationship has held 100% of the time."
X Link 2026-02-10T14:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Tomorrows jobs report could shock markets. The January jobs report is set to be released tomorrow at 8:30am EST. And the White House is already lowering expectations. Trade adviser Peter Navarro warned that the numbers could come in much weaker than expected saying: We have to revise our expectations down significantly. His main explanation was that roughly [--] million undocumented immigrants have reportedly left the country since Trump returned to office shrinking the labor supply. We also heard similar messaging yesterday from Kevin Hassett who said to expect a cooling labor market in the"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:19Z [----] followers, 27.4K engagements

"@JohnLukeSam1 Poor job numbers and weaker dollar is good for risk assets. That's his main aim - to push asset prices higher"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@WhaleInsider Falling dollar is good news for risk assets: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2020907303667691991 BREAKING: The US dollar is sliding back toward [--] year lows. So why does the dollar matter so much Because it plays a huge role in global liquidity financial conditions and US corporate earnings. When the dollar weakens its generally positive for risk assets often with a https://t.co/1P3gOaCZU6 https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2020907303667691991 BREAKING: The US dollar is sliding back toward [--] year lows. So why does the dollar matter so much Because it plays a huge role in"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Warren Buffett is one of the greatest investors of all time. Here's all his investing wisdom compressed into just [--] minutes. Save this to stay ahead of the curve"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"If you're looking to buy silver listen to this. Buffet and Munger explain why they bought silver because of the mismatch between demand and supply. We are currently in a similar situation where demand for silver is outpacing supply. Save this video before the algorithm buries it. BREAKING: Silver prices surge over +6% now back above $85/oz. https://t.co/Ft70ztSVG1 BREAKING: Silver prices surge over +6% now back above $85/oz. https://t.co/Ft70ztSVG1"
X Link 2026-02-11T11:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Kalshi Here's what this means for your portfolio: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021579389927075850 BREAKING: The January jobs report just dropped and its VERY strong. - Nonfarm payrolls: [------] (vs [-----] expected) - Unemployment rate: 4.3% (vs 4.4% expected) Thats a HUGE upside surprise. Ironically Navarro had been lowering expectations warning that the labor market https://t.co/ZWGAzMWOyl https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021579389927075850 BREAKING: The January jobs report just dropped and its VERY strong. - Nonfarm payrolls: [------] (vs [-----] expected) - Unemployment rate: 4.3% (vs"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Tirothegreat All eyes on Friday's CPI print. That will surely give us more info about rate cuts moving forward"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Theres a lot of talk about how strong the labor market looks But heres what most people are missing: The average monthly payroll gain for [----] was just revised down from [-----] to [-----]. Thats not a small tweak. Thats a major downgrade. In total [----] payroll growth was revised from [------] jobs to just [------]. In our post below there's quite a few comments on how the stellar job numbers for January will eventually be revised down. Given how they revised the [----] numbers there's a good chance this happens in [----] as well. So why does this happen Because initial job estimates are based on survey"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:46Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements

"RT @MilkRoadMacro: If you're looking to buy silver listen to this. Buffet and Munger explain why they bought silver because of the mismat"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Kalshi Here's what this means for the job market: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021942304911839478 BREAKING: US initial jobless claims came in at 227K vs 222K expected. On its own its not alarming. But with context it matters: Just yesterday we saw major downward revisions to payroll data with the average monthly job gains for [----] revised down from 49K to 15K. That https://t.co/bWbw5Bnur8 https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021942304911839478 BREAKING: US initial jobless claims came in at 227K vs 222K expected. On its own its not alarming. But with context it matters: Just yesterday"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@cryptorover IGV (software) is now in a severe bear market: down 30% from its October [----] highs"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter The US housing market is in real trouble: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@cryptorover The US housing market is in real trouble: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Kalshi The US housing market is in real trouble: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DeItaone What this means for the housing market: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DeItaone The US housing market is in real trouble: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@CNBC The housing market is in trouble: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@business The housing market is in trouble: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021972291010408753 The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. https://t.co/pLeULhQPvw"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Kalshi If you're in crypto pivot to burgers"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@brewmarkets"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter After gold's run we're now betting on the following commodities: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value - Silver plunged 7% in [--] minutes erasing roughly $350B For context thats way more than Bitcoins entire market cap ($1.3T) gone in a flash. But here's the https://t.co/wW7OyDVsKp https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value -"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DeItaone It's now time for new commodities. We've outlined which ones we're watching below: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value - Silver plunged 7% in [--] minutes erasing roughly $350B For context thats way more than Bitcoins entire market cap ($1.3T) gone in a flash. But here's the https://t.co/wW7OyDVsKp https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DeItaone Forget silver we're now looking at copper aluminium and lithium: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value - Silver plunged 7% in [--] minutes erasing roughly $350B For context thats way more than Bitcoins entire market cap ($1.3T) gone in a flash. But here's the https://t.co/wW7OyDVsKp https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value -"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@hajiyev_rashad Time to rotate into new commodities. Here are [--] that we picked: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value - Silver plunged 7% in [--] minutes erasing roughly $350B For context thats way more than Bitcoins entire market cap ($1.3T) gone in a flash. But here's the https://t.co/wW7OyDVsKp https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value -"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@silvertrade Is it time to move into new commodities https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value - Silver plunged 7% in [--] minutes erasing roughly $350B For context thats way more than Bitcoins entire market cap ($1.3T) gone in a flash. But here's the https://t.co/wW7OyDVsKp https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value - Silver plunged 7% in 15"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@stats_feed Time to look at new commodities like copper aluminium and lithium: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value - Silver plunged 7% in [--] minutes erasing roughly $350B For context thats way more than Bitcoins entire market cap ($1.3T) gone in a flash. But here's the https://t.co/wW7OyDVsKp https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2021989134752215450 BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value -"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@cryptorover The next rate cut will most likely come when Warsh is Fed chair. https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2022305718360289654 BREAKING: Inflation just surprised to the downside (again). - Headline CPI: 2.4% (vs 2.5% expected) - Core CPI: (vs 2.5% expected) Core CPI is now the lowest it has been in the last [--] years. And markets are already reacting: Rate cut expectations are shifting forward as https://t.co/ow1Q0OurlB https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2022305718360289654 BREAKING: Inflation just surprised to the downside (again). - Headline CPI: 2.4% (vs 2.5% expected) - Core CPI: (vs"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@jakermcrypto @MilkRoad Unfortunately markets only move when the govt releases CPI numbers. Waiting for the day where everyone uses Truflation as their benchmark"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"BREAKING: ISM Manufacturing just came in at [----] versus expectations of [----]. Thats a huge upside surprise. This lines up with our view that ISM would start moving higher in [----]. Heres our thesis: The ISM has been deviating from history. It has always followed a 4-year cycle but it hasn't happened this time. Usually when ISM touches [--] it signals growth expansion into the economy and risk assets have a major boom. Especially crypto. This is why we think ISM is likely to keep rising in 2026: Why ISM is likely to keep rising in 2026: - Surging AI-driven demand is pushing revenues and capex"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:18Z [----] followers, 49.8K engagements

"Is This the Start of a New Commodity Supercycle w/ @ClemChambers Markets are debating rate cuts. Meanwhile: Central banks are stockpiling gold Nuclear is back Copper supply is tight AI capex is exploding The bigger macro shift might not be in bonds it might be in metals. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:43 Why Hes Done with Silver 02:40 Volatility = Market Confusion 03:18 Waiting for Golds Big Move 04:04 Gold Platinum Palladium & Copper 06:47 Why Copper Is the Ultimate Trade 08:28 AI = Massive Energy Demand 09:29 Are Gas & Diesel Coming Back 10:28 Platinum & Palladium Shortage"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"BREAKING: US initial jobless claims came in at 227K vs 222K expected. On its own its not alarming. But with context it matters: Just yesterday we saw major downward revisions to payroll data with the average monthly job gains for [----] revised down from 49K to 15K. That was already a signal that the labor market isnt as strong as headline numbers suggest. Todays higher jobless claims add weight to that view. Like weve said before: The labor market is sluggish but its not in crisis. We're currently in a low hire low fire environment. Theres a lot of talk about how strong the labor market looks"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@WhiteHouse Energy prices gasoline and electricity are all down: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2022313960197009652 Here's the CPI breakdown sector by sector: - Energy prices are down 1.5% - Gasoline is down 3.2% - Electricity is down only 0.1% (shocker) - Food prices rose 0.2% - House prices rose 0.2% - Transportation saw the largest jump increasing by 1.4% https://t.co/QZuitCkf5o https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2022313960197009652 Here's the CPI breakdown sector by sector: - Energy prices are down 1.5% - Gasoline is down 3.2% - Electricity is down only 0.1% (shocker) - Food prices"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@RapidResponse47 @POTUS Energy prices gasoline and electricity are all down: https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2022313960197009652 Here's the CPI breakdown sector by sector: - Energy prices are down 1.5% - Gasoline is down 3.2% - Electricity is down only 0.1% (shocker) - Food prices rose 0.2% - House prices rose 0.2% - Transportation saw the largest jump increasing by 1.4% https://t.co/QZuitCkf5o https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/2022313960197009652 Here's the CPI breakdown sector by sector: - Energy prices are down 1.5% - Gasoline is down 3.2% - Electricity is down only 0.1% (shocker) -"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Even though PMI just came in lower than expected. We still think it moves higher down the road. Here's why: - Image 1: Industrial production is curling up - Image 2: Durable goods are steadily increasing - Image 3: Global M2 money supply is trending higher - Image 4: Commodity prices are inching up All of these indicators have a strong historical relationship with PMI and theyre moving upwards. We expect PMI to catch up sooner rather than later. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008193444473352278 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008193444473352278"
X Link 2026-01-05T15:06Z [----] followers, 43K engagements

"With crypto falling this becomes an important watch. Billionaire investor Paul Tudor explains how he would build his portfolio going into [----]. Save this. If youre a crypto investor listen to this. Charlie Munger explains what he did when his portfolio fell 50%. Save this to stay ahead of the curve. https://t.co/HwjFVtsfR1 If youre a crypto investor listen to this. Charlie Munger explains what he did when his portfolio fell 50%. Save this to stay ahead of the curve. https://t.co/HwjFVtsfR1"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:42Z [----] followers, 138.3K engagements

"There is lots of noise on whether Kevin Warsh is dovish or hawkish. So we're here to clarify his stance. (scroll to the bottom if you want the short answer) Okay cool so is he a hawk or a dove A http://x.com/i/article/2019017167438516224 http://x.com/i/article/2019017167438516224"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:28Z [----] followers, 40.8K engagements

"BREAKING: The US dollar is sliding back toward [--] year lows. So why does the dollar matter so much Because it plays a huge role in global liquidity financial conditions and US corporate earnings. When the dollar weakens its generally positive for risk assets often with a lag. Its one of the more reliable leading indicators for asset prices. (Not perfect but historically useful.) The dollar strengthened through the second half of [----] acting as a major headwind for risk assets. Now that pressure is easing as the dollar moves lower. The S&P [---] is set to go WAY higher in [----]. BREAKING: The US"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:07Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements

"At 26:40 Kevin Warsh explains his stance on QE. He even explains why he resigned over QE back in [----]. Save this interview with the next Fed Chair. https://t.co/laVhBuu13H https://t.co/laVhBuu13H"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:38Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements

"BREAKING: The January jobs report just dropped and its VERY strong. - Nonfarm payrolls: [------] (vs [-----] expected) - Unemployment rate: 4.3% (vs 4.4% expected) Thats a HUGE upside surprise. Ironically Navarro had been lowering expectations warning that the labor market would look weak. Instead we got the opposite. The key takeaway is that the US labor market is still holding up. But heres the twist: Strong labor data can be bad for risk assets. Why Because a strong labor market reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut rates. If job growth is solid and unemployment is falling the Fed has less"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:37Z [----] followers, 36.8K engagements

"@MilkRoad The next rate cut will come when Warsh is Fed chair"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The US housing market is broken. Housing expert @m3_melody breaks down why policymakers can't do anything to save it. Save this for when the housing market collapses. BREAKING: US home sales fell -8.4% in January the biggest monthly decline since February [----]. BREAKING: US home sales fell -8.4% in January the biggest monthly decline since February 2022"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Here's what Trump just said about Iran: "We have to make a deal otherwise it's going to be very traumatic." Trump continues to threaten Iran. But here's why we think these are empty threats: This Trump administration has made it very clear that they care about higher asset prices and lower inflation. A direct conflict with Iran would jeopardize both. If the US were to strike Iran: - Oil prices would likely spike sharply - Higher oil = higher inflation - Higher inflation = fewer rate cuts - Fewer rate cuts = pressure on risk assets On top of that any major geopolitical escalation would likely"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Here's the CPI breakdown sector by sector: - Energy prices are down 1.5% - Gasoline is down 3.2% - Electricity is down only 0.1% (shocker) - Food prices rose 0.2% - House prices rose 0.2% - Transportation saw the largest jump increasing by 1.4% BREAKING: Inflation just surprised to the downside (again). - Headline CPI: 2.4% (vs 2.5% expected) - Core CPI: (vs 2.5% expected) Core CPI is now the lowest it has been in the last [--] years. And markets are already reacting: Rate cut expectations are shifting forward as https://t.co/ow1Q0OurlB BREAKING: Inflation just surprised to the downside (again)."
X Link 2026-02-13T14:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The tech sector has been poor in [----]. Its been underperforming while other cyclical sectors (including industrials transports small-caps materials energy) have ripped higher. A key reason behind this is that the Magnificent [--] has been dropping since late [----]. Its unlikely that SPX will be able to pull off a strong move higher without tech pulling its weight. Here are [--] plausible reasons why tech is lagging: [--]. Software smash Tech weakness has been heavily concentrated in software names as investors fret about disruption from new AI tools. IGV (software) is now in a severe bear market down"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Ignore the Headlines. The Charts Are Screaming Bull Market w/ @CalebFranzen The National Financial Conditions Index just hit multi-year lows. Caleb explains why thats rocket fuel for risk assets. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:09 Bull or Bear 03:45 High Beta vs Low Vol 05:23 Calebs #1 Chart 08:29 What Flips Caleb Bearish 11:00 S&P [---] Price Target 12:41 Trump Tweet Impact 16:50 Bitcoin: Crash or Buy 20:05 $BTC vs Gold 23:04 Fed Index Explained 24:20 Calebs Strategy 28:08 Gold Breakout Signal 30:30 Powells Next Move 33:45 USChina Outlook 37:03 Wrap-Up"
X Link 2025-10-21T15:51Z [----] followers, 32.1K engagements

"The ISM data is lagging. At Milk Road we use the Global Economy Index (GEI) to track the business cycle. Here's what it's saying: Weve already completed a mini business cycle and just entered a brand new one. The main reason why the mini cycle ended were the tariff announcements on Liberation Day"
X Link 2025-11-06T19:00Z [----] followers, 27.3K engagements

"Crypto is in absolute shambles right now: - $BTC is down 44% from its October high - $ETH is down 58% from its last peak - $SOL is down nearly 70% from its highs Heres the Bitcoin story: After Trump was elected in November [----] Bitcoin rallied 78%. Those gains are now completely erased. By most definitions weve officially entered bear market territory. As @Matt_Hougan put it crypto has been in a crypto winter since January [----]. Here's why this is NOT just another pullback: Despite crypto fundamentals improving with growing TradFi adoption and clearer regulation prices continue to fall"
X Link 2026-02-05T12:00Z [----] followers, 839.3K engagements

"BREAKING: Gold and silver are CRASHING AGAIN. - Gold dropped 4% in just [--] minutes wiping out over $1.5T in value - Silver plunged 7% in [--] minutes erasing roughly $350B For context thats way more than Bitcoins entire market cap ($1.3T) gone in a flash. But here's the bigger story: The gold and silver momentum trade may be cooling off after an aggressive run. But that doesnt mean the broader commodity story is dead. In fact the overall commodity complex still looks strong especially as the business cycle expands. If growth accelerates the next big trade could in industrials like copper"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:45Z [----] followers, 21.3K engagements

"Geopolitics Is Now the Macro Driver: Iran China & the Trades That Matter in [----] w/ @mgertken If Iran falters oil doesnt just spike. It could trigger the largest supply shock in modern history. But heres the twist: Neither the U.S. nor Iran wants escalation. So what breaks first Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:39 Iran & the Oil Risk 02:14 20% of Global Oil at Risk 02:54 Irans Internal Crisis 04:28 U.S. Strike Odds 06:51 Oil: China vs Iran Crosswinds 08:21 Chinas 5% Growth Problem 10:20 Venezuela Oil Comeback 13:29 Xis Total Control 16:05 Security Over Growth 18:31 Bridge 19:04"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"How do you turn $10000 into $26 million Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller did it by putting all his eggs into one basket. Save this to stay ahead of the curve"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:23Z [----] followers, 66.4K engagements

"Here's how the macro landscape looks: - Inflation is falling - Labor market is sluggish but still stable - ISM manufacturing came in above [--] - US dollar continues to weaken All these signs are pointing towards an economic boom. In the chart below we can see that the business cycle expansion is well underway. We're currently in the middle of a raging bull market. You can see it with equities as the S&P [---] keeps pushing to new all-time highs. But here's the problem: Bitcoin isn't acting like it. If $BTC doesn't excel in these raging bull market conditions that could be a big problem. Because"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Warren Buffett is one of the greatest investors of all time. Here's all his investing wisdom compressed into just 4-5 minutes. Save this to stay ahead of the curve"
X Link 2026-02-15T20:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The Treasury just confirmed its still doing stealth QE. In its latest refunding announcement the Treasury is: Issuing record levels of short term bills. Keeping long term coupon issuance flat. This means more liquidity/less duration risk. That's bullish for risk assets. Some call it Treasury QE. Others call it the reason $SPX and $BTC keep grinding up. But there is always risk Short term bills = constant rollovers = higher long term fragility. Its like running the worlds biggest economy on payday loans. TL;DR: Watch the Treasury. Not just the Fed"
X Link 2025-08-07T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Demand for $BTC is outpacing supply by 600% Anything over 200% is already huge. As long as that imbalance holds prices likely continue to push higher but when it snaps expect sharp dips. @caprioleio"
X Link 2025-08-15T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The ISM is throwing a tantrum. Since [----] its mostly followed a predictable [--] year cycle. But since mid-2023 its broken pattern and lost direction. This makes it much harder to pin down exactly where we are in the business cycle"
X Link 2025-08-28T13:09Z [----] followers, 27.4K engagements

"Financial conditions are hella loose. We saw a big spike in March & April during the tariff chaos But theyre now back in green territory (below 0). Loose conditions = tailwind for risk assets like $BTC and $SPX"
X Link 2025-08-28T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Another sign financial conditions are loosening. This index is back to the peak speculation levels of [----] and 2020/21 (both huge years for $BTC). If it keeps drifting lower bull market sentiment only grows stronger. Higher. Financial conditions are hella loose. We saw a big spike in March & April during the tariff chaos But theyre now back in green territory (below 0). Loose conditions = tailwind for risk assets like $BTC and $SPX. https://t.co/HyjLEbkr2A Financial conditions are hella loose. We saw a big spike in March & April during the tariff chaos But theyre now back in green territory"
X Link 2025-08-30T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Gold has had a very strong 10-day run. Up more than 6%. As the ultimate safe-haven asset. Could this be signaling that something big is on the horizon"
X Link 2025-09-01T18:00Z [----] followers, 29.1K engagements

"The ISM has stayed below [--] for [--] straight months. This is the longest stretch since the index was created. Rate cuts could finally push it back above 50"
X Link 2025-09-08T12:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Here are two things we know: [--]. Rate cuts are almost certain. [--]. There are little to no signs of a recession. Put those together and you get this: Historically rate cuts without a recession have been very bullish for risk assets. Weve said it before and well say it again: There are very few signs of a recession. - Growth nowcasts look resilient - The Citi Economic Surprise Index is climbing - S&P [---] companies crushed earnings in Q2 Recession risks are easing not rising. https://t.co/HqwicY1PnY Weve said it before and well say it again: There are very few signs of a recession. - Growth"
X Link 2025-09-16T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The US Treasury rebuilt its cash pile (TGA) after the debt ceiling drama. To do that it pulled $500bn out of the system a direct drag on market liquidity. That drain cut into bank reserves pushing them toward the danger zone that triggered the [----] repo crisis. Stress signals like SOFR spreads have already ticked higher. If reserves fall too far the Fed wont have a choice. QT (balance sheet runoff) will have to end. The real question: does the Fed step in early or do they wait until the system breaks first The TGA rebuild is nearly done. Liquidity stops draining. And if QT ends soon the"
X Link 2025-10-02T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"As long as global liquidity is moving upwards. We have no fear that $BTC is going to do well"
X Link 2025-10-28T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Is the Feds emergency cash a sign of crisis or just a precaution Recently U.S. banks hit a snag as liquidity slipped prompting the Fed to step in with a flow of emergency funds. With the Treasury's General Account ballooning over its target liquidity is being drained from the market. But the Fed is acting halting its balance sheet tightening soon. If unresolved end of month cash crunches might persist risking systemic strains. Expect more shifts as the Fed recalibrates its strategy"
X Link 2025-11-06T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"SOFR is dropping fast. After a brief uptick from the emergency loans its already back to calmer levels. Low SOFR = healthy liquidity = stable markets. Because of these emergency loans. We saw a spike in the SOFR. Higher SOFR = more market stress. But this SOFR spike was actually relatively minor. In [----] the SOFR spiked all the way above [--]. This time it just barely touched [----]. Another sign that the emergency loan https://t.co/tc7DORFu5J Because of these emergency loans. We saw a spike in the SOFR. Higher SOFR = more market stress. But this SOFR spike was actually relatively minor. In 2019"
X Link 2025-11-10T19:00Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements

"@WhiteHouse"
X Link 2025-07-17T22:20Z [----] followers, 42.4K engagements

"Surviving the Liquidity Crisis: Everything You Need to Navigate This Cycle w/ Michael Howell @crossbordercap Fiscal dominance is real. The Fed isnt in control anymore; the Treasury is. And that changes everything for crypto gold and rates. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 - Intro 01:26 - Is the Liquidity Cycle Over or Just Getting Started 04:17 - Fiscal Dominance Explained: Why Bond Market Stability Now Trumps Inflation 13:23 - Treasury QE & Monetary Inflation: The Risks No Ones Pricing In 19:15 - Nexo 19:49 - Figure Markets 20:24 - Why Refilling the Treasury General Account Could"
X Link 2025-08-05T19:11Z [----] followers, 13.7K engagements

"The EU just overtook China in GDP. EU: $19.99T China: $19.23T For context: EU population: 450M China population: 1.4B Thats less than half the people generating more output"
X Link 2025-08-19T13:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Rate cuts are coming. But markets arent just focused on the next move theyre already looking at where this cutting cycle ends. Thats called the terminal rate. Right now markets expect the Fed Funds Rate to bottom out around 3% about five cuts in total. This matters because it tells us the Fed isnt in panic mode. These are slow methodical maintenance cuts not emergency slashes to fight a recession. As long as recession risk stays low thats generally bullish for risk assets"
X Link 2025-08-26T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"China is flooding markets with liquidity. In Dec [----] the PBoC shifted policy from prudent to moderately loose. Since then it has injected over 8T RMB ($1T+ USD) into money markets. Growing Chinese stimulus = bullish for the world economy. Chinas economy is picking up. - 10-year Chinese bond yields have stopped falling - Credit impulse is at its highest since [----] With both metrics turning upward its a positive signal not just for China. But for the global economy. https://t.co/5jkXE0vSgn Chinas economy is picking up. - 10-year Chinese bond yields have stopped falling - Credit impulse is at"
X Link 2025-08-31T14:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Weve got a HUGE September ahead. Key events to watch: - Sept 2: Manufacturing PMI (ideally 50) - Sept 35: Labor market data drop - Sept 11: CPI release - Sept 17: FOMC meeting (90% odds of a rate cut)"
X Link 2025-09-01T13:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go"
X Link 2025-09-01T16:30Z [----] followers, 16.4K engagements

"JUST IN: ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at [----] (vs. [----] expected). Were still waiting for a print above [--] to confirm the start of altcoin season. Not there yet but were getting closer. ISM Manufacturing PMI drops at 9am EST today. Everyones waiting for it to climb back above [--] for altcoin season But we dont think its there yet. Its sitting at [--] with todays forecast at just [----]. Looks like the ISM tantrum isnt over. ISM Manufacturing PMI drops at 9am EST today. Everyones waiting for it to climb back above [--] for altcoin season But we dont think its there yet. Its sitting at [--] with todays"
X Link 2025-09-02T14:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Here's a reason why gold might be ripping: The central bank balance sheet tightening may soon be ending. When central banks (CBs) tighten their balance sheets it means theyre reducing the amount of money in the system. Thats generally bad for assets because it removes liquidity. Gold breaking out this week could be the markets way of saying: We think central banks are done with tightening and may even shift back to easing. h/t @Jamie1Coutts Gold has had a very strong 10-day run. Up more than 6%. As the ultimate safe-haven asset. Could this be signaling that something big is on the horizon"
X Link 2025-09-02T15:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This is the worst year for the $DXY in nearly [--] years. But here's the good news: When the dollar stumbles risk assets usually thrive. Crypto markets are already feeling the breeze"
X Link 2025-09-03T17:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"50bps rate cut incoming Markets are now pricing a 100% chance of a September cut: - 89% odds of 25bps - 11% odds of 50bps A 50bps cut would be massive for $BTC and $SPX"
X Link 2025-09-06T11:30Z [----] followers, 12.3K engagements

"This cycle still has a long way to go. Right now 90% of central banks are cutting rates. Historically this leads US sentiment by about [--] months. Which means US sentiment should turn up soon giving the cycle even more fuel. Hope your bags are ready. h/t @BittelJulien"
X Link 2025-09-08T17:30Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements

"Hot take: The labor market is cooling not collapsing. Despite the poor jobs growth. Unemployment rate is at 4.3% right in line with forecasts and well below historical norms. Initial jobless claims are also still low by historical standards. The labor market is weakening. But its far from recessionary"
X Link 2025-09-10T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Good luck JP 50bps rate cut incoming Markets are now pricing a 100% chance of a September cut: - 89% odds of 25bps - 11% odds of 50bps A 50bps cut would be massive for $BTC and $SPX. https://t.co/kyTAq0WtYS 50bps rate cut incoming Markets are now pricing a 100% chance of a September cut: - 89% odds of 25bps - 11% odds of 50bps A 50bps cut would be massive for $BTC and $SPX. https://t.co/kyTAq0WtYS"
X Link 2025-09-10T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Weve said it before and well say it again: There are very few signs of a recession. - Growth nowcasts look resilient - The Citi Economic Surprise Index is climbing - S&P [---] companies crushed earnings in Q2 Recession risks are easing not rising"
X Link 2025-09-11T17:30Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements

"New $BTC signal unlocked: Every time Bitcoin has ripped higher. Its usually coincided with a MASSIVE drop in 20Y Treasury yields. And guess what: were seeing that same dip right now. History says the next big $BTC move could be around the corner. h/t @BullTheoryio"
X Link 2025-09-15T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Its Fed week. A 25bps rate cut is basically locked in. But thats not the story The real risk A hawkish cut. Powell could slash rates and still spook markets if he pushes back on Wall Streets dream of 6+ cuts over the next year. History says cuts near all time highs are bullish (S&P has averaged +13.9% over [--] months). But short term It all hinges on Powells mic time Wednesday"
X Link 2025-09-16T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"BREAKING: The Fed has cut rates by 25bps exactly as expected. But the bigger story is whats ahead: Markets are pricing in 150bps of cuts (six 25bps moves) over the next [--] months. Roughly two of those are expected before the end of 2025"
X Link 2025-09-17T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"We had a mini-cycle between late [----] and early [----]. Unlike previous cycles where GEI peaked at [--]. We saw GEI peak at [---] in this mini-cycle. We're currently at the start of a much larger cycle"
X Link 2025-09-18T13:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The Fed just cut rates with inflation at 2.9% and GDP running strong. Thats not stimulus in a slowdown. Thats running it hot. In many ways the overall outcome of this meeting was already priced in. This explains why most risk asset markets finished the trading day mostly flat. Heres the price action (rate decision and press conference in red)"
X Link 2025-09-18T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"We shouldve credited the original source in our earlier post and we want to correct that. The framework & chart come from @RealVision @RaoulGMI & @BittelJulien This space moves fast and its frustrating when charts get swiped. BUT we also believe this framework is right $BTC is tracking a [--] year cycle that could top in [----]. Thats why wed be honored to have Raoul & Julien on the pod to walk our audience through it directly. Intern sends his apologies. We wont let this happen again. Hot take: $BTC is now following a [--] year cycle. As the ISM is still stuck below [--]. We think that the current"
X Link 2025-09-29T20:24Z [----] followers, 58.2K engagements

"Markets have never reacted the same way during a shutdown. In [----] stocks slipped while $BTC surged and [--] years later in [----] equities barely moved while gold climbed. By [----] the script flipped again stocks sold off and Bitcoin fell alongside them. Shutdowns always disrupt the flow of government but the markets reaction is never uniform. Data releases get delayed the Fed is left to decide policy with incomplete information and spending grinds to a halt. So this shutdown risk with odds now near 75% could ripple well beyond short term moves on a chart. But the real question is: How todays"
X Link 2025-09-30T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Here's a quick recap of [----] for crypto: - Bounced back huge off the April tariff lows - Chopped all summer - Expecting a huge leg up in Q4 While we do agree that Q4 will see a move higher. It's not going to be the blow off banana zone that you're all expecting. This cycle will take longer. The main reason is that the global liquidity cycle is lengthening. So don't be surprised if Q4 isn't all that you expect. Just remember: [----] could be your year. Zoom out and stay calm. https://t.co/hXOzaWTQVY https://t.co/hXOzaWTQVY"
X Link 2025-10-01T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The Fed is cutting rates while inflation and growth are both rising. Thats running the economy hot. Weve only seen this a few times before. The last big one [----]. The Fed eased even though markets were strong and it extended the bull run for two more years into the [----] peak. Today looks almost identical. Liquidity is rising financial conditions are loose and global central banks are all easing together. Its why stocks are melting up and why the next leg for crypto may just be getting started. If this analog holds the cycle doesnt end here it stretches into late 2026"
X Link 2025-10-05T14:45Z [----] followers, 48.4K engagements

"SOFR tracks whether the economy is in trouble. If things are running smoothly the spread between SOFR and IORB stays below [--]. But recently this spread has risen suggesting bank reserves may be becoming scarce (check post below). QE might be here sooner than you think. Banking reserves are nearing critically low levels. But heres why that could be a good thing: The last time reserves were this scarce was in [----]. The FED had to abruptly shift from Quantitative Tightening (QT) to Quantitative Easing (QE). QE = good for risk assets. If the https://t.co/VXlULeYt7W Banking reserves are nearing"
X Link 2025-10-06T15:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This correlation is almost spooky. The Russell [----] (small cap equities) and $ETH are basically moving in sync. Both are highly sensitive to interest rates. With 4+ consecutive cuts on the horizon. Expect both of them to move up in tandem"
X Link 2025-10-07T18:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"80% of global banks are in 'easing mode.' Only one major economy (Japan) remains neutral but that's about to change: Japan has a new PM Takaichi known for her pro-stimulus stance which will push Japan into easing mode too. More easing = better for risk assets"
X Link 2025-10-08T13:30Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements

"Whether its global M2 supply or overall liquidity. Its all rising. The upswing that started in late [----] is still going strong. But the big question remains: "When will this rise stop" Historically every major global M2 downleg (201112 [----] [----] 202122) has coincided with a rising U.S. dollar. So if you can time the next dollar move up. You can likely time when global liquidity starts trending down. Right now the dollar looks pretty bottom-ey which is slightly concerning. We expect it to climb slightly in the medium term before heading lower again. Keep an eye on the dollar"
X Link 2025-10-10T12:09Z [----] followers, 21.6K engagements

"The chart says it all. Gold has absolutely destroyed the S&P [---] this century"
X Link 2025-10-12T13:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"While there are chances that QT will end soon. This does NOT mean that QE will restart immediately. Our guess is that the FED will increase their balance sheet extremely slowly probably at pace with GDP growth. A step in the right direction but still a long way to go. There you have it QT is over. Back up the fucking truck and buy everything. https://t.co/kQbpBSOlOU There you have it QT is over. Back up the fucking truck and buy everything. https://t.co/kQbpBSOlOU"
X Link 2025-10-15T12:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The macro set up is extremely bullish right now: - The majority of global central banks are now in easing mode. - The US economy shows signs of reacceleration as the ISM and PMI are ticking up. - Liquidity is returning to markets as the Treasury General Account (TGA) refill is complete. - Despite fear theres no clear top across major assets (Bitcoin S&P Gold). Higher"
X Link 2025-10-20T12:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter"
X Link 2025-10-23T13:38Z [----] followers, 13.2K engagements

"Recent jitters in US markets stem from concerns over a potential credit event. We saw a spate of bankruptcies that sent ripples through private credit and high yield bond markets. Rising credit spreads tend to indicate increased risk. However high yield is beginning to align back with stocks rather than dragging them down. Caution is always warranted but right now it looks more like a false alarm than a full crisis"
X Link 2025-10-23T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Here's a quick explainer on QE & QT: Quantitative Easing (QE) = Fed expanding their balance sheet by bonding bonds = injecting cash into the system QT is the exact opposite. Quantitative Tightening (QT) = selling bonds = taking cash out of the system. Between [----] and [----] the Fed went into turbo QE which pushed risk assets much higher. But then in [----] FED began its QT process which sent the same assets sliding downwards. But here's the good news: The Fed has just signalled that they are STOPPING QT which is great news for risk assets. QT isnt ending its evolving. Last week Fed Chair Powell"
X Link 2025-10-25T13:00Z [----] followers, 88K engagements

"Regional U.S. banks faced a mini crisis last week. Two smaller lenders Zion and Western Alliance were hit by loan frauds. Sparking a sharp selloff across regional bank stocks. It triggered the biggest outflows since [----] and even rippled into equity markets pushing the VIX to its highest level in months. But heres the good news: Both regional bank stocks and the VIX have since started to stabilize. Looks like this credit scare might already be behind us"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This weeks macro watchlist 👇 Wednesday: - Fed rate decision - JP press conference - Big tech earnings (Microsoft Meta Alphabet) Thursday: - Trump - Xi meeting - Apple & Amazon earnings And around 20% of the S&P [---] companies report earnings. Huge week ahead"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:30Z [----] followers, 15K engagements

"Weve got a wave of good news but markets havent moved yet. Heres what happened just yesterday: - Fed cut rates by [--] bps - US reached a trade deal with China - Quantitative Tightening (QT) will officially end on December 1st Normally this combo of catalysts would send prices flying. But were not worried. These are the building blocks for the next big move. When markets turn the move up will be explosive. (especially for crypto) This weeks macro watchlist 👇 Wednesday: - Fed rate decision - JP press conference - Big tech earnings (Microsoft Meta Alphabet) Thursday: - Trump - Xi meeting - Apple"
X Link 2025-10-30T12:16Z [----] followers, 20.6K engagements

"Powell is playing it safe. He warned that limited data could be an argument in favor of caution. Risk asset markets generally react slightly negatively to Powells comments. And that's exactly what we saw: - S&P [---] fell 1% then mostly recovered - $BTC dropped 3.5% then bounced back Despite this dip the easing cycle is still on. Risk assets remain in a bullish setup for the medium term"
X Link 2025-11-02T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Weve been talking about this for weeks and it FINALLY happened. Because reserves have been sliding some banks did not have enough liquidity to properly function smoothly (image 1). So banks tapped the Fed for a $50B overnight emergency cash loan (image 2). Sounds scary but theres actually a silver lining: This Fed facility is working exactly as intended: a liquidity backstop"
X Link 2025-11-07T18:00Z [----] followers, 24.8K engagements

"The end-of-month effect strikes again. Banks often window dress their balance sheets at month-end to meet regulatory requirement. This is usually done by parking cash in the Feds Reverse Repo facility (aka a liquidity drain). Thats why prices tend to dip at the end of the month. Window dressing liquidity drain prices fall"
X Link 2025-11-08T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"BIGGEST NEWS FROM THE WEEKEND: Trump announced stimulus checks of at least $2000 per American. Thats roughly $400B+ being injected straight into the economy. Stimulus checks = massive boost in spending. But theres a catch: These one-off liquidity injections often lead to higher inflation. With fresh stimulus AND ongoing rate cuts inflation could heat up fast"
X Link 2025-11-10T11:57Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements

"Everyones talking about QE coming back But few are telling you whats actually happening. Heres the hard truth: The Fed will likely start a light version of QE in Q1 [----] and the key word here is light. Analysts expect balance sheet expansion of around $20B per month or $240B a year. Thats basically QE for ants. For perspective: between March and June [----] the Fed expanded its balance sheet by $3T roughly $800B per month. At this new pace it would take a decade to reach the balance sheet highs of early [----]. QE is coming back just not the version everyones hoping for. Here's a quick explainer"
X Link 2025-11-12T12:30Z [----] followers, 89.5K engagements

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