@GoldSeabridge Seabridge Gold Investor (NYSE:SA | TSX:SEA.TO)

Seabridge Gold Investor (NYSE:SA | TSX:SEA.TO) posts on X about $sa, gold, inflation, debt the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [-----] #

Mentions: [--] #

Followers: [-----] #

CreatorRank: [---------] #

Social Influence

Social category influence finance countries currencies stocks travel destinations cryptocurrencies automotive brands us election technology brands social networks

Social topic influence $sa #1, gold, inflation #2188, debt, fed #652, in the, stocks, money, china, market

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @lukegromen @pboockvar @lawrencelepard @peternbell @goldseek @lancejlewis @redevelopcf @john12782 @mknight1984 @vestaviacapital @dioclet54046121 @spomboy @goldmoney @sa @gorozen @myrmikan @santiagoaufund @hussey47325 @leadecon @sprott

Top assets mentioned Seabridge Gold, Inc. (SA) Goldman Sachs (GS) Bitcoin (BTC) Reserve (RSV)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"The US Q2 GDP first estimate came in a 2.1% a little above consensus. A positive Not really. Growth was primarily due to higher consumer and government spending while inventory investment exports business investment and housing investment decreased"
X Link 2019-07-29T12:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"We think the #Fed will super-achieve its inflation target to where theyll wish they never had one. No one least of all the Fed watches #moneysupply which began to accelerate this year before the Feds new #nonQE asset purchase program. Heres proof. Comments @NorthmanTrader"
X Link 2019-12-12T22:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Is the US #dollar breaking down out of its up-trending channel that began in September of last year The [--] DMA has given way and the RSI does not indicate the dollar is oversold. Something to watch next week"
X Link 2019-12-28T19:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"US consumer confidence has just recorded its 4th straight declining month YoY. Stock bulls routinely invoke a strong US consumer to explain their optimism. Will declining confidence lead to weaker retail sales We think so. Source: Bloomberg"
X Link 2019-12-31T16:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"There is no room for a further slowdown in the economy not only in the corporate debt market but also in consumer credit. The bulls are all in the Fed is all in expecting that the threat of a recession is over. If they are wrong the result will be devastating. My pal Doug Kass in his major [--] surprise list included the bubble in auto debt. Imagine that with a 3.5% unemployment rate Delinquency rates have now risen to highs not seen since the Urate was closer to 8% eight years ago Ponder that one. My pal Doug Kass in his major [--] surprise list included the bubble in auto debt. Imagine that"
X Link 2020-01-13T16:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The pressing question: can the #Fed exit the #repo market after being the dominant source of liquidity for more than [--] months The latest Fed balance sheet shows a minor cut from the week before but total Treasury holdings continue to mount. This week's data could be important"
X Link 2020-01-13T19:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"It's nice to see that with all the emphasis on rate cuts and repo the Fed hasn't forgotten to juice the growth rate in the money supply"
X Link 2020-03-09T18:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Beware the dead bat bounce. Equities have had a nice rally this morning but high yield debt is not joining in. We'll believe the stock market has turned when the spreads stop widening. Source: Zerohedge"
X Link 2020-03-10T15:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This is what an emergency looks like in credit. Junk debt spreads are blowing out. The Fed must fix this pronto. Stocks get all the attention on CNBC but the Fed watches credit. The amount of economic damage done by the #coronavirus will be determined by the credit markets"
X Link 2020-03-12T16:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The #Fed is doing an excellent job of gunning the #money supply. Here at least they are getting some traction. When #inflation finally explodes (and we think we are getting close) people will ask: What were the signs This is one"
X Link 2020-03-20T21:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Once again gold and gold stocks separated from the broader equity market. Nice job"
X Link 2020-03-23T22:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"WOW. The Fed has certainly figured out how to jamb money supply higher. Is this sort of growth possible on an ongoing basis without loss of confidence in the currency and much higher inflation"
X Link 2020-03-27T23:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The bulls tell us US banks are in much better shape this crisis than the last one. True. Last time the problem was weak bank balance sheets but now its their customers balance sheetsleading inevitably to another bank balance sheet crisis. Why bank stocks lag the S&Ps"
X Link 2020-04-22T15:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Chetan Ahya predicts the Feds balance sheet will expand by 38% of GDP this year almost twice the percentage expansion recorded by QE1 [--] and [--] combined. MS sees a $12T Fed balance sheet by the end of next year. (Zerohedge today). Stunning"
X Link 2020-05-04T00:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Institutional investors are keeping their net bullish exposure near decade lows resulting in extremely illiquid markets reports Goldman Sachs. Equity futures liquidity is at the 22nd percentile and single-stock liquidity remains below Dec-2018 levels. Very precarious we think"
X Link 2020-05-22T21:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"How's this for a sexy chart. Can this gold bull market repeat its best historical move (in dollars) We think it's possible. H/T Novagold"
X Link 2020-05-27T03:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The US Dollar Index is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to: Euro (EUR) 57.6% weight; Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight; Pound sterling (GBP) 11.9% weight; Canadian dollar (CAD) 9.1% weight; Swedish krona (SEK) 4.2% weight; Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight"
X Link 2020-05-31T18:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"US money supply is up 29.8% y-o-y down just 0.2% from a the all-time high of a week ago. Who is going to end up holding all these dollars Not this cowboy"
X Link 2020-06-14T23:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Man Group has constructed an equal-weighted garbage portfolio of all listed US companies with credit default swaps at more than [----] basis points on [--] April [----]. This portfolio containing many RobinHood favorites has hugely outperformed the MSCI US Index. (Zerohedge)"
X Link 2020-06-17T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The US dollar once backed by lots of gold and [--] day bills is now backed by a vanishing amount of gold per unit of currency Treasury bonds which will never be repaid and a growing and disturbing amount of dubious corporate credit. Own at your peril. (Source: The Economist)"
X Link 2020-06-24T17:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This is what it looks like when the Fed fights a recession. This data doesn't look deflationary to us and certainly not dollar-supportive. The Fed sure knows what to do when financial conditions tighten"
X Link 2020-07-26T21:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Growth in US money supply has paused just below 30% y-o-y just below all-time highs set last month. Can something that is infinitely available and costs nothing to make retain its value We think not"
X Link 2020-08-03T19:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Valuable information from Thom Calandra on the shift towards gold in the asset allocations of large institutions. Offsetting increased credit risk is reason #1. Coming up: Offsetting inflation reason#2. #Gold other #commodities likely to influence September/October investment strategies at endowments generalist portfolios insurers pension funds trusts. All seek CROs: 'credit-risk offset insurance.' Gold starting to be seen as 'offsetting' default risks. @GoldSeabridge #Gold other #commodities likely to influence September/October investment strategies at endowments generalist portfolios"
X Link 2020-08-29T23:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The bond volatility index (MOVE) spiked the most in history yesterday up 45%. Other big Moves occurred prior to the S&L crisis during the tech bust and during the oil and EM crash"
X Link 2020-10-07T16:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"After spiking on Tuesday after Trump's "no deal" tweet the US Dollar has been in free-fall tumbling to three-week lows this morning and pushing gold futures back above $1900"
X Link 2020-10-09T15:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"From Gavekal Research this amazingly simple and persuasive argument for why gold is in a lasting bull market: US broad money supply is rising 23Xs faster than the gold supply. In the past any move in this ratio above [--] was a reliable signal"
X Link 2020-10-22T17:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The growth in MZM money supply.the money available for immediate expenditure.has slowed() to 27.5% y-o-y down from 30% two months ago. A blistering pace of money creation which is temporarily keeping the economy afloat"
X Link 2020-11-09T00:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Either the Fed lets Treasury yields rise far higher so that the market finances the huge Federal deficit (disaster) or the Fed must aggressively increase QE. Below is expected issuance by the Treasury vs the current pace of Fed QE. Gold will be a huge beneficiary in our view"
X Link 2020-11-16T21:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"A quick audit: Core Durable Goods miss; Personal Income and Spending miss and drop; UMich Sentiment miss and drop; total jobless claims remain above [--] million; new home sales miss and drop. Hard and soft macro data plunging. Recovery Doesnt look like it to us. (Zerohedge)"
X Link 2020-12-23T21:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The mania in financial assets is a gift from Yellens time at the Fed. Keeping the cost of money below inflation was a massive subsidy to speculators and day traders. And now shes back. David Stockman via http://InternationalMan.com http://InternationalMan.com"
X Link 2021-01-03T00:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"H1 2021: Rising nominal yields and inflation expectations. #Fed depresses long yields to support Treasury and economy. Fed-financed stimulus boom turns to stagflation. Real yields fall. PMs break higher. Foreign capital leaves US. Dollar continues down. Fed panics. Market breaks"
X Link 2021-02-09T01:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Why no correlation Not all QE is the same. The Bernanke/Yellen Brand didn't push money supply because it stayed in the banking system on deposit with the Fed thanks to IOER and hiked reserve requirements. The Powell Brand goes into the pockets of Americans and M1 explodes. $SA Zero correlation between Fed printing and money supply Fascinating thing to hear. Does that say something about how big the hole was on banks' balance sheet and (un)willingness to lend @GoldSeabridge @DouglasPollitt Zero correlation between Fed printing and money supply Fascinating thing to hear. Does that say something"
X Link 2021-02-24T14:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Chair Powell said nothing about yield control yesterday and confirmed there is no plan to raise the Fed Funds rate for at least two years. We predicted this would spike rates big time this morning at it has.the [--] yr is at 1.417% and the [--] yr is at 2.29%. This will hurt. $SA"
X Link 2021-02-24T14:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Since we have all become yield watchers let's look at the 5yr Treasury. As its yield soars skyward it raises the question: are shorter duration #yields signalling not only hotter #inflation but also sooner Fed rate hikes $SA $SEA"
X Link 2021-02-25T16:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Would you like to know why home prices are up 11.2% y-o-y Just look below. The Fed has bought over $60B of MBS since February [----] to limit the impact of higher yields on the housing market. The Fed knows and likes inflation. But we think they're going to get more than expected"
X Link 2021-04-02T21:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The markets expect that higher #inflation will provoke the Fed to launch a rate hike cycle so buy the dollar and sell gold. That would have been true a decade ago but it's not happening now. When the markets realize there will be no rate hikes the real gold bull market begins. @GoldSeabridge Please explain why gold & silver are down after the CPI number came out. @GoldSeabridge Please explain why gold & silver are down after the CPI number came out"
X Link 2021-05-12T20:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"A chart of M2 money supply from @pboockvar. Does this look like money supply is slowing This is just another reason why we think inflation isn't going to be transitory. $SA"
X Link 2021-06-04T13:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Our prediction of 2H stagflation looks good. Inflation/inflation expectations accelerate as growth decelerates. Fed tightening (raising rates or tapering QE) is now unlikely. More stimulus/deficit spending is needed for growth and the Feds the dominant purchaser of Treasuries"
X Link 2021-07-17T21:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Has the start of Fed tapering already begun to disrupt the Treasury market's famous liquidity By one measure we are back to illiquidity levels requiring the Fed to print $625B per week in QE (see below). H/T @LukeGromen Treasury market liquidity is the Fed's holy grail. $SA"
X Link 2021-12-06T19:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The market is now pricing in an 86% chance of a March rate-hike and fully pricing in [---] rate-hikes by the end of [----]. We think this is completely unreasonable. If these expectations are not met #gold will be the beneficiary. $SA @zerohedge"
X Link 2022-01-07T04:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The Flexible Price Consumer Price Index which measures the CPI items much more sensitive to economic conditions reached [----] percent in December the highest level in the entire historical series of this index which began in [----]. H/T Andr Marques The Mises Institute. $SA"
X Link 2022-02-03T22:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Gold is now at record highs in Japanese Yen and Swedish Krona. We think new highs in the #USD are not far behind. Note the chart below. $SA"
X Link 2022-02-21T19:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The #gold price may no longer be tracking yields or the US dollar but it's certainly tracking the US trade balance. Can you imagine the US trade deficit reversing its downtrend any time soon $SA @LawrenceLepard @PeterNBell @thomcalandra"
X Link 2022-04-16T22:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"While everyone is mesmerized by the collapse in equities there's this in corporate bonds. $SA Not good"
X Link 2022-05-09T20:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Financial conditions continue to tighten signaling further market weakness dead ahead. The Fed needs to 'earn' its pivot and they are succeeding.the pain is accelerating. $SA $SEA @pboockvar @LukeGromen @PeterNBell"
X Link 2022-09-22T16:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"RAISING RATES IS NOT GOLD-NEGATIVE "The Fed has raised the reference interest rate from 0% in March of [----] to 5% currently. The mainstream view of gold expressed by prominent banks and analysts over the years is that this should have crushed the gold price. Gold has no yield"
X Link 2023-06-17T15:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

""I'm going to mention the US dollar again as the euro/yen heavy DXY today is falling to the lowest level in [--] months. Something is not right with the US dollar especially when looking at its fiat currency competition." H/T @pboockvar Could it be that all the rumbling about BRICS anti-dollar alternative trading platforms is beginning to have an impact Or is this the result of a runaway fiscal deficit that must somehow be financed $SA @LukeGromen @DonMiami3 @NDR_Research"
X Link 2023-07-11T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Report from @pboockvar: "Fed Governor Chris Waller wants to continue to press his foot down on the neck of inflation notwithstanding the Wednesday CPIprint. 'The robust strength of the labor market and the solid overall performance of the US economy give us room to tighten"
X Link 2023-07-14T16:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Corporate net interest payments have fallen despite aggressive Fed rate hikes. Huge fixed rate borrowings locked in during the ultra low rates of 2020/21 remain in place while variable rate cash interest income is soaring adding 5% to profits over the last year instead of higher rates deducting an expected 10%+ from profits. H/T SocGen's Albert Edwards. Another reason why recession has been delayed. @zerohedge $SA"
X Link 2023-07-25T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Gold ETFs to Halt Outflows This Year as US Rates Peak UBS Says. This morning #Bloomberg reports that "Investors are about to return to gold-backed #ETFs after shunning them for months as consensus grows that US interest rates are approaching a peak according to a UBS analyst". UBS added that inflows into ETFs backed by the metal will turn positive in the fourth quarter in their opinion whilst forecasting that #gold will climb toward a record high in [----] as they see the US Federal Reserve relieving markets with a 25bps rate cut in December. The move back into ETFs is likely to give a further"
X Link 2023-07-27T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Central Bank Gold Demand In First Half Of [----] Was The Highest On Record Despite significant selling by Turkey that slowed net central bank gold buying in Q2 central banks added a record amount of gold to their reserves through the first half of [----]. Net central bank gold"
X Link 2023-08-06T19:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Updating US corporate credit: "A June report from Lincoln International concludes that average fixed charge coverage ratios.slipped to [----] times in the first quarter from [---] times a year earlier using a backward looking [--] months of interest expense. After adjusting for the"
X Link 2023-08-07T16:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Seabridge has engaged RBC Capital Markets to run a formal process to find the right JV partner to build and operate our huge KSM Project and keep to our high standards of ESG. The right partner will enable us to unlock the enormous value in the world's largest undeveloped gold/copper project measured by reserves and resources. See our Q2 report second article. $SA"
X Link 2023-08-15T22:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Here's the short term view on gold from the Bloomberg terminal today: #Goldprice Heads for Fourth Weekly Decline on Fed Policy Outlook. #Gold this morning is heading for a 4th weekly decline the longest such run in a year on speculation that the Federal Reserve may not be done with raising interest rates. A robust US jobs report yesterday suggested the resilient economy is making employers reluctant to reduce headcount. Minutes released this week of the Feds July meeting also showed officials were still concerned that inflation could fail to recede and more rate hikes might be needed. That"
X Link 2023-08-18T15:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Here's the longer term view on the #goldprice from Goehring and Rozencwajg Q2 Investor Letter and Market Commentary In our view #gold will emerge as the asset class with the most potential this decade no matter the financial or geopolitical backdrop. Under the most extreme scenarios (a repeat of the deflationary implosion that produced the Great Depression or a period of inflation that verges on hyperinflation) gold will be the winning asset class Each peak in the Dow-gold ratio (1929 [----] and 1999) coincided with periods of commodity undervaluation. As each commodity bull market started the"
X Link 2023-08-18T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Do you still think an alternative to US dollar dominance is a long way off "A new platform to expand the reach of Chinas digital yuan and other central bank digital currencies is moving closer to reality raising eyebrows among some defenders of a system long dominated by the dollar. The Beijing-backed digital prototype for sending money around the world without relying on US banks is advancing so quickly that some European and American observers now view it as an emerging challenger to dollar-denominated payments in global finance. The mBridge project which is being developed by China"
X Link 2023-08-20T15:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"From last week's BRICS summit: ".the share of the dollar in export-import transactions within the BRICS is declining: last year it amounted to only [----] percent as reported by the Russian delegation (we have not confirmed this). The former president of Nigeria reportedly got a standing ovation for this: "I want to buy from India. Why should I use dollars Its a payment and settlement system that will allow me to buy whatever I want to buy in India whatever I want to buy in Brazil without looking for dollars." John Rubino's Substack As BRICS expands to encompass about 50% of global oil"
X Link 2023-08-27T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

""Next week we will know more about the proposal presented at the BRICS summit. All the indications are that this new settlement currency will be denominated in a quantity of gold such as gold grams. The return of gold backed credit is an important development for the growing BRICS family.seeking a better alternative to the US dollar." Alasdair Macleod $SA"
X Link 2023-08-27T21:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The downward adjustment in labor market statistics continues as we expected. The 3-month drop in job openings (the so-called JOLTS data) was reported today at [---] million surpassed only by the pandemic economic shutdown collapse. This on top of the downward revision of EVERY monthly jobs report this year. The Fed and markets have relied on a 'strong' labor market to dismiss the likelihood of a recession. That recession will now emerge from the data revisions where it has been lurking since Q4 [----]. $SA @pboockvar @LukeGromen"
X Link 2023-08-29T15:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Treasury yields are up again today after jumping Friday: @pboockvar comments: "Let's be honest that performance in long term US Treasuries on Friday was pretty poor after the softer than expected jobs figure when revisions are included the rise in the unemployment rate and the basically in line wage data. The [--] bps rise in the [--] yr yield Friday is being followed by another [--] bp increase today to 4.23% and rates are also higher around the world. I'll speculate on some possiblereasons: 1) Maybe a yield curve trade unwind on the belief the Fed is done hiking and steepeners were put on 2)Maybe"
X Link 2023-09-05T15:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"FUN WITH NUMBERS Last Friday the BLS released the non farm payroll numbers for August and once again the prior months of June and July were revised lower. And not by a little: Junes NFP number was revised down [-----] jobs while Julys was revised down [-----] jobs. Junes initial report of [------] jobs had already been revised down by24000 in July. So this second downward revision of [-----] jobs means that 49.7% of the jobs in the original June NFP report were not real. A second revision down is likely coming for July in the October report along with the first cut in the August estimate. Every"
X Link 2023-09-05T21:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Michael Hartnett BofA Strategist: "The big risk recession and higher unemployment cause higher not lower long-term government bond yields as markets discount fiscal policy panic politicians spending to avert social unrest; yields rise to punishing levels causing long and hard landing." $SA"
X Link 2023-09-09T22:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

""This Is Truly Bonkers": Albert Edwards of Societe Generale Warns Of "Shocking Surge In Bankruptcies Beyond All Fears" Reported in Zerohedge. See Albert Edwards @albertedwards99 "If one looks just below the very large-caps stocks the old normal still applies with higher"
X Link 2023-09-15T22:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Is this why the gold trade suddenly feels different From @LukeGromen: "Western consensus was that the BRICS Summit was a nothingburgeryet what we speculated about.appears to be happening in some form. Russia will soon sell gas to China at half the price it sells gas to the EUor to use our parlance of August [--] the BRICS just agreed to settle energy deficits in gold at a gold to oil ratio well above the London gold/oil ratio. "And look at what has happened to gold premiums in Shanghai since the BRICS Summit (Spot SGE gold is trading at premium of $120 to COMEX): Between these premiums and"
X Link 2023-09-18T03:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Where will this end and who else will be hurt in the domino effect to follow "It has been another stormy day for China's property sector which plunged 7% erasing all gains since the Nov [----] lows.driven by the latest collapse in (insolvent) Evergrande shares.after the"
X Link 2023-09-25T16:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Recession "BofA CIO Michael Hartnett - the most vocal bear at Bank of America - made an important observation pointing out that at a time when virtually everyone - including the #Fed - is expecting a soft landing the hard landing 'tells' are lining up: the yield curve is"
X Link 2023-09-25T22:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"A Warning from @pboockvar: "Things don't really break here in terms of the US government financesbeing treated by the marketplacelike an emerging market until the US dollar breaks. When you see US rates rising in addition to the US dollar falling that's when we're in real trouble." $SA"
X Link 2023-09-29T17:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"We'll need to see a full-fledged credit 'event'.severe volatility in the Treasury market due to poor liquidity and a major spike in yields followed by immediate Fed action designed to provide liquidity but not called QE. Like the 'not QE' repo tsunami of [----]. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-01T15:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"It went like this: On September [--] [----] interest rates on overnight repurchase agreements (or "repos") which are short-term loans between financial institutions experienced a sudden and unexpected spike"
X Link 2023-10-01T15:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"A measure of the interest rate on overnight repos in the United States the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) increased from [----] percent on September [--] to [----] percent on September [--]. During the trading day rates reached as high as [--] percent"
X Link 2023-10-01T15:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

""Liquidity is drying up everywhere. Gold and silver and the dollar don't trade like this unless a large hole is about to develop in financial markets. Large drops like this in the metals and GDX and screaming upside in the dollar is exactly what preceded and occurred during the meltdowns of the fall of [----] and March of [----]. The one key difference is that bond yields were falling on each of those occasions." From @lancejlewis $SA"
X Link 2023-10-03T00:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

""COMEX open interest in gold rose over a percent to [------] contracts on Friday which suggests aggressive spec short selling drove the decline." @lancejlewis We think the short position is way out over its skis but for now they are winners. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-03T13:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Another new high in the [--] year yield this morning (10/4) at 4.887%. It seems unstoppable. The Fast Money nutbars think it's the strong economy. We think it's too much supply into an illiquid market headed for a liquidity event. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-04T14:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Nomura's Charlie McElligott similar to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan thinks "there is a significant risk that FCIs (Financial Conditions Indices) continue to tighten until something breaks." McElligott notes:"
X Link 2023-10-04T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@PeterNBell Not high enough. Poor liquidity. Volatility suggesting the market could experience a discontinuity of trade (crash). Inability to sell easily and efficiently"
X Link 2023-10-04T18:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@PeterNBell There is usually good liquidity in on-the-run issues but some off-the-run tenures can be very illiquid and there are lots of them. On-the-run Treasuries are the most recently released. Off-the-run Treasuries are those that have been issued before and remain outstanding. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-04T20:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Today's 'Gangbusters' Sept. Job Report Not Seasonally Adjusted: 885K Full-Time Jobs Lost [-----] Million Part-Time Jobs Added Record Multiple Jobholders +1 Million Non-Productive Government Jobs; -400K Non-Government Jobs Do NOT assume this report means no recession $SA"
X Link 2023-10-06T16:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Fed monetary policy designed to defeat inflation is from a bye-gone era of 1-2% deficits and 15% debt/GDP. With the fiscal authority out of control the fiscal overwhelms and reverses the effects of the monetary authority. $SA @LukeGromen @pboockvar @LawrenceLepard @PeterSchiff"
X Link 2023-10-06T16:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"A sense of crisis is creeping into fixed-income marketsat the start of the fourth quarter coming off the back of a rocky September. The queue ofsoothsayers warning of impending doom is lengthening;growing concern about US domestic politics as well as the global economic backdrop risks sparkinga full-blown market rout. Until the Federal Reserve finally calls time on its 18- month rate-hiking cycle the bond-market beatings will continue. Something serious may break in the meantime as the sound of rivets popping around the world is getting louder. The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen almost"
X Link 2023-10-07T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@PeterNBell @Myrmikan See also his latest: The Missing Piece about an incipient bond market collapse. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-07T22:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"WSJ 10/8/23: The Bank of Japan has definitely contributed to the rise in U.S. yields said Tim Ng a portfolio manager focused on U.S. debt and interest rates at Capital Group a $2.3 trillion fixed-income asset manager. Japanese investors looked for yield in the U.S. and European bond marketsnow Japanese government bonds look more attractive. Its a meaningful shift. More pressure for the stressed Treasury market. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-08T21:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"President #Biden has confirmed that the US will begin 'surging' defense aid to Israel. A senior DOD official also said the #Pentagon was 'surging support' to its closest Middle Eastern ally. More unbudgeted deficit spending more Treasury issuance higher interest expense. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-11T14:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"More important than gaming the next FOMC: "Capping the treasury auctions this week after the weak [--] yr and [--] yr.today's [--] auction.was poor too. The yield of 4.837% was almost [--] bps above the when issued after.the tail of [--] bps in both the [--] yr and [--] yr auctions. Dealers were left with 18% of the auction which is the most since December [----]. The bid to cover ratio was [----] vs the [--] month average of 2.39." From @pboockvar Can the private market fund a runaway deficit that will once again shock to the upside when the next quarterly Treasury issuance schedule contains massive unbudgeted help"
X Link 2023-10-12T21:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Credit card spending data reported by Citi shows total spending in Oct wk [--] (ended 10/7) fell 11.9% y-o-y compared to Sept wk [--] (ended 9/30) which was -11.3% y-o-y. The decline continues. Putting October spending in context it's not only weaker than September but it has surpassed the historical -10.7% y-o-y collapse at the peak of the covid crisis in April [----]. Reported in Zerohedge 10/13/23 Evidence of recession is on the way. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-13T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The only way to bring down debt/GDP and avoid a complete collapse in the banking system and Treasury market is QE as ugly as it will be not to kick the can down the road but to prevent disaster via inflation. Austerity's no longer an option in our view. Too many defaults. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-13T15:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"It used to be an axiom of the gold market that gold traded inversely to real rates. As gold begins to challenge the US dollar as a medium of final settlement supported by central bank buying this is no longer true"
X Link 2023-10-15T01:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Notes @LukeGromen "Gold markets are already showing signs of strain with gold completely separating from US real rates over the past 12-18 months in a manner not seen in at least [--] years (below)." $SA"
X Link 2023-10-15T01:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

""When a twin deficit country like the US with debt/GDP of 120% and a fiscal deficit/GDP of 8% has positive real rates it is NOT a signal to sell gold ask Argentina Brazil Turkey and others. "Positive real rates in such a nation makes a debt crisis a mathematical certainty as debt and deficits will before long create an irrecoverable feedback loop of higher rates higher deficits higher debt lower tax receipts wash/rinse/repeat." From $SA"
X Link 2023-10-15T01:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Simon White Bloomberg macro strategist writes (10/16/23): "Despite being one of the deepest markets in the world the market for Treasuries has seen liquidity deteriorate in the years since the pandemic. On several measures bid/offer spread order-book depth price impact of a trade the Treasury market has shown marked signs of a decline in liquidity in recent years. "Bloombergs US Treasury Liquidity Index infers liquidity has markedly weakened over the last two years and after showing an improvement over the last six months it has started to worsen again. "Fixed-income volatility using the MOVE"
X Link 2023-10-16T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

""The [--] year traded slightly higher some sessions ago but we have not closed higher than current levels since forever. The steep trend channel since July stays intact. Note the perfect bounce in the [--] day moving average." From The Market Ear 10/17/23 Higher rates no longer drive gold lower. Something important has changed. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-17T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"For those who like to draw trend lines here's an ominous one: the long duration Treasury ETF is looking a little poorly. Yields are verging at a new [--] week high. And gold is shrugging it off. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-17T22:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"USD/JPY is at [-----] this morning (10/20/23) a level where the BOJ has intervened recently without much effect. The pressure is on to widen the permitted range of yields in the BOJ's Yield Curve Control program to stabilize the $yen"
X Link 2023-10-20T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The last widening in July helped drive US yields higher says economist @pboockvar. Widening raises Japanese interest rates drawing Japanese investment abroad back home draining a very important source of capital from the system and pressuring US debt and equity markets. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-20T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The #Treasury market is far too sensitive to relatively small amounts of selling. This is ominous dear reader. Most investors do not yet see the crisis unfolding in the USB market. Poor #liquidity high #volatility and huge #leverage plus soaring issuance.a very bad combo. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-22T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

""In our view the biggest elephant in the room is the US Fiscal Doom Loop. To refresh: US Government spending is out of control and there appears to be very little political will to stop it. As the chart below shows Government spending is up 14% yoy and tax receipts are down 7% yoy.It is unprecedented to have deficits of this magnitude with the economy and employment being relatively strong" @LawrenceLepard. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-23T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"If the Fed keeps tightening (or remains high for longer). they lose the long end of the Treasury curve to heightened credit risk. If they loosen they lose the long end to heightened inflation risk. The riskless asset foundation for financial markets is gone. H/T @LukeGromen $SA"
X Link 2023-10-25T22:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The IShares US transportation ETF is telling us that either today's real GDP growth estimate of 4.9% is ridiculous or Scottie has found a way to teletransport goods using the Starship Enterprise. $SA @PeterNBell @LawrenceLepard"
X Link 2023-10-26T18:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The extraordinary increase in US debt was manageable as long as interest rates were falling. Now that the Fed is raising rates the debt has entered a doom loop of rising rates generating rising interest expense (see graph) generating higher debt and higher interest expense. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-27T16:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Positive real rates like now (rates higher than inflation) with debt/GDP of 120% create the doom loop and the government defaults on its obligations. Or the Fed must return to negative real rates via QE embrace inflation and sacrifice the dollar. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-27T16:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Negative real rates via Fed QE are what made the huge run up in debt possible seemingly without consequences until the inevitable finally occurred.inflation. The choice now is more inflation or crushing deflation. $SA"
X Link 2023-10-27T16:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"".Tokyo reported a quicker than expected October CPI figure.which raises the chances that maybe we do get another shift in policy next week from the Bank of Japan. Headline inflation was higher by 3.3% y/o/y which was well more than the estimate of up 2.8%. "The core/core rate jumped 3.8% y/o/y vs 3.7% in the month before.with services rising at the fastest rate since 1994.JGB yields were little changed but the [--] yr inflation breakeven rose [---] bps to 1.29% the highest since [----]. " We continue to be long and bullish of Japanese stocks and believe the BoJ will get rid of NIRP either next"
X Link 2023-10-27T19:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@JordanBakerBK @LukeGromen Great point. But government spending at 25%+ of GDP must get considerable credit"
X Link 2023-10-30T18:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Late this pm (10/30/23) the Treasury released its Marketable Borrowing Estimates report. The impact of an accelerating deficit driven by runaway government spending will blow your mind. For the October December [----] quarter Treasury expects to borrow $776B in privately-held net marketable debt assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $750B. The borrowing estimate is $76B lower than announced in July [----] largely due to projections of higher receipts somewhat offset by higher outlays. For the January March [----] quarter Treasury expects to borrow $816B in privately-held net marketable debt"
X Link 2023-10-30T21:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

""Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller pulled no punches.at a recentRobin Hood Foundation event slamming Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. "In his view Yellen made the worst mistake in the history of the Treasury by not issuing more long-dated government bonds before the Fed began hiking rates early last year. And that Druck believes has helped pave the way for a debt disaster. "'When rates were practically zero every Tom Dick Harry and Mary in the United States refinanced their mortgage"' Druckenmiller said.'"Unfortunately we had one entity that did not and that was the US"
X Link 2023-10-31T17:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@PeterNBell @lisaabramowicz1 Mister Market is listening to almost nothing else which will be its undoing. In our view the Fed has already set the wheels in motion for a Treasury market crisis and its pronouncements mean almost nothing until they are forced to deal with the mess they have created. $SA"
X Link 2023-11-01T16:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"In response to yesterday's BOJ decision to tinker with its Yield Curve Control policy but essentially leaving it in place the yen continues to fall now at [------] the lowest since the 1980s. How much longer can they maintain YCC Graph by PHOENIX CAPITAL RESEARCH $SA"
X Link 2023-11-01T17:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@GaryC75592360 @pboockvar The BOJ's Yield Curve Control weakens the yen and encourages Japan's immense savings to invest in higher-yielding foreign markets especially US Treasuries. If/when YCC ends the yen should rise vs the dollar capital should flow back to Japan and US yields should rise. $SA"
X Link 2023-11-01T17:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Why do we focus on the Japanese yen as a trigger for higher gold prices Decades of current account surpluses have accumulated to create the worlds largest net international investment position: $3.3T of investments abroad. The BOJs Yield Curve Control has forced capital"
X Link 2023-11-02T17:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Stocks are no longer trading inversely to bonds as they have for [--] years. Three years of falling bond prices are entirely unprecedented. Central banks are replacing dollar-denominated reserves with gold in record amounts"
X Link 2023-11-06T19:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We are setting up for a huge reset of the financial system brought on by too much debt runaway government spending and failing growth. Confidence in the current system is dying. As Daniel Oliver writes: today's gold investors are the bond bulls of [----]. @Myrmikan $SA"
X Link 2023-11-06T19:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"And $SA has the largest gold project by reserves and resources as well"
X Link 2023-11-07T18:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Moodys downgrade of its US credit-rating outlook to negative offers another reason why investors are likely to demand more compensation for the risk of underwriting growing deficits. Moodys offered a stark warning with its downgrade by commenting that interest rates have shifted materially and structurally higher. This means more pressure on the Treasury via higher interest expense lower tax revenues and widening the deficit further. $SA"
X Link 2023-11-13T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"With respect to long end rates (from @pboockvar) ".this will now be a really interesting test. What matters more in driving them from here.decelerating inflation slowing economic growth and the potential for some Fed rate cuts thatwill continue the rally ORhuge Treasury supply with continued increases in debts and deficits a likely soon to be tightening again BoJ andglobal QT. "While I believed that the 5% tick on October 23rd was likely a short term peak I remain of the belief that it will be exceeded next year." We note that after a huge drop in yields yesterday they have bounced back"
X Link 2023-11-15T16:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Simon White Bloomberg macro strategist: "Short covering on Tuesday (11/14/23) drove apowerful rallyin Treasuries but deteriorating liquidity conditions means they face greater downside than upside risk. "The outsized move in bond yields in the US and the rest of the world from a slightly softer-than-expected October inflation print was an unmissable sign of a market that got caught short. "Todays retail sales number was better than expected (though a decline in headline) potentially wrong-footing the bond market after yesterday's strong gains." See: The poor liquidity and extreme volatility"
X Link 2023-11-15T17:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The Institutional Risk Analyst: "Our big worry is that short-term interest rates may fall in [----] but long-term interest rates will rise due to the Treasurys vast deficits and mounting interest expense. We estimate that the Treasury would need to pay 5.5-6% to sell new long bonds today. Because the Feds balance sheet is already polluted with low-coupon Treasury and mortgage debt the central bank has little remaining flexibility to respond to a large bank failure or other contingency. In coming months we may all get an objective lesson in why moral hazard is to be avoided." Richard Christopher"
X Link 2023-11-27T20:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"As $DXY weakens gold climbs. Why is the dollar falling Market expectation of Fed rate cuts is one factor. @LukeGromen thinks a US policy shift may also be in play. A falling dollar reduces the short term pressure on the US financial system and Treasury market"
X Link 2023-11-28T20:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Christine Gilfillan TD Bank Strategist published yesterday (11/29/2023): "Things have come a long way and need to give credit where credit is due the market is here without any ETF buying it remains muted and is still leaning towards light sellers. If that community wakes up coupled with fast money still on the sidelines a move through $2050 will surely wake a sleeping giant." From Zerohedge Note that gold continues to trade in Shanghai at a $35 premium to London. China has a new all time high for gold in dollars already. $SA"
X Link 2023-11-30T13:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Why are central banks buying record amounts of gold @Go_Rozen "We believe a new monetary system will emerge in which countries can trade bilaterally in currencies other than the US dollar settling their current account imbalances using gold. "Brazil has already agreed to settle its Chinese soybean and iron sales in renminbi while Saudi Arabia is also considering settling its Chinese oil sales in renminbi. Total Energies has agreed to sell LNG to China settled in renminbi. "After decades of excessive monetary growth and globalization trade imbalances now dwarf the size of the global gold"
X Link 2023-11-30T22:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"From @Go_Rozen: "Chinas ultimate goal is to weaken the reserve currency status of the US dollar. Given its closed capital account this goal is nearly impossible. However if renminbi imbalances were settled in a liquid easily convertible asset class like gold outside the capital account then China would be on its way to weakening the grip of the US dollar as a global reserve currency." $SA"
X Link 2023-11-30T23:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"From @Go_Rozen: "Although real interest rates continue to inch higher and Westerners therefore continue to sell gold all this selling is being met by Central Bank purchasing. Once Western investors stop selling gold and begin accumulating their buying will quickly bump up against Central Bank demand." $SA"
X Link 2023-11-30T23:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Fed Chairman Powells fireside chat today resulted in: a collapse in yields a surge in stocks gold popping $35 all driven by renewed bets that the Fed will cut rates as soon as March the market now assigning 80% odds of a rate cut then roughly double from yesterday. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-01T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"From @lancejlewis: "COMEX open interest rose over [--] percent to [------] contracts Friday and is indicated to have fallen nearly [--] percent yesterday Monday to its lowest level since Nov 21st which when combined with likely aggressive spec short selling suggests quite the spec long panic." $SA"
X Link 2023-12-05T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Bloomberg Strategist Simon White: "The Federal Reserves reverse repo (RRP) facility has been a key support for liquidity and stocks this year. But it is falling. As it approaches zero markets face much less benign conditions as a formidable tailwind is extinguished." $SA"
X Link 2023-12-07T17:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Tomorrow's jobs report could be poor as @pbookvar notes in an earlier post. This would likely weaken the dollar and bring down rates at the short end. The big question: do duration yields rise as bad news is finally (recessionary) bad news.the ideal result for gold. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-08T00:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Highlyner @TheNudeInvestor @DebraG_Robins This QR code compares $SA's copper holdings per share to other major holders. We are number #1. According to our [----] PFS the initial [--] years of operation at KSM will produce [---] million pounds per year of copper on average. A PEA shows a focus on copper vs gold can boost this"
X Link 2023-12-09T22:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The BOJ bomb explained: The BOJ has used massive QE (actually Yield Curve Control) to keep Japanese interest rates ultra low. This is finally producing inflation one of the BOJ's objectives after decades of deflationary pressures. Huge institutions (Japanese and foreign) and the BOJ itself have borrowed massive amounts of yen at nearly zero rates converted to dollars and purchased overseas assets with higher yields. (A carry trade) The exchange risk has been expensive to hedge. Ending QE (or even reducing it substantially) will raise rates in Japan inducing Japanese capital to return there as"
X Link 2023-12-09T23:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Proof of de-dollarization. The UAE has officially replaced the dollar in its oil trade starting with fellow BRICS member India. Over [--] million barrels of oil have been shipped to India by the UAE for payment in the Rupee"
X Link 2023-12-10T04:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The BRICS bloc of Brazil Russia India China and South Africa recently expanded to include the UAE Saudi Arabia Egypt Ethiopia Iran and Argentina. The BRICS have agreed to challenge the traditional hegemony of the US dollar in international trade starting with energy. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-10T04:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Last week's huge gain in the yen driven by speculation the BOJ would hike rates as soon as this month has partially reversed as speculation now predicts no rate hike soon. Is the BOJ terrified to end NIRP and unwind the estimated $20 trillion yen carry trade"
X Link 2023-12-11T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"From Zerohedge: Today we get [--] and 10yr US Tsy auctions; Tomorrow is the US CPI and a 30yr auction; Wednesday we get the last FOMC meeting of [----] and PPI; Thursday is US Retail Sales and ECB SNB and BoE; Finally on Friday we get global PMIs and China's monthly data dump. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-11T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The FOMC released new 'dot plots' today strongly suggesting the current rate hike cycle is over and 'predicting' three rate cuts next year. The market saw this as a pivot in Fed policy and all major asset classes went up including gold (+2.4%) and gold stocks (GDX +6.38%) $SA rose 9.02% reflecting its higher gold ownership per share. Gold has weathered this rate hike cycle better than expected and now appears ready to claim new highs on a sustained basis. Gold stocks should now close their huge under performance gap against gold.a gap reflecting the differences between gold and gold stock"
X Link 2023-12-14T02:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Fed Chairman Jay Powell: Dec 1: It would be premature to speculate on when policy might ease. Dec 13: Rate cuts begin to come into view and clearly is a topic of discussion. What happened in just two weeks We think something risks going off the rails and we will find out soon enough. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-14T17:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@PeterNBell @RedCloudSec We think we are on to something. Close to KSM same rocks same age same geology. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-15T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The extreme volatility in the Treasury market occurred at the same time as a rapid increase in @LukeGromen's US Federal Insolvency Ratio calculated as Gross Interest Expense divided by Federal Receipts. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-15T23:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@chris_pinkstaff We also want the right deal for our shareholders and the communities surrounding KSM"
X Link 2023-12-19T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"How to fund a runaway deficit without triggering a debt crisis: "The Treasury by pivoting issuance toward bills meant money-market funds were able to fund the majority of the governments borrowing needs using idle liquidity parked on the Feds balance sheet in the reverse repo (RRP) facility." Simon White Bloomberg macro strategist [----] QE (stored up as RRP) is still funding the Treasury even as the Fed does QT. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-19T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This a.m. Bloomberg reports that "Chinese banks held their benchmark lending rates after a similar move by the central bank bolstering expectations that further monetary easing will take place in early 2024". We think this will be the story of [----] and not just rate cuts. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-21T15:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@GaryC75592360 We think the trigger for new QE is the exhaustion of the Reverse Repo pool of cash at the Fed which should occur near the end of Q1 [----] at current rates. Without the Reverse Repo draining into T-Bills we don't think the Treasury can fund the runaway deficit. $SA @LukeGromen"
X Link 2023-12-22T22:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Citing Gerry Minack of Downunder Daily fame Albert Edwards observes that the SPX is typically within 2% of its cycle high two months before the start of a recession. "So much for the equity market being forward looking." Economies don't slide into recession they suddenly lurch into it. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-23T01:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Is there a problem somewhere Today the dollar dumped and the Magnificent [--] stocks were liquidated while gold bonds the Swiss franc and crypto all ripped higher. The run on the dollar is starting to look ominous. $SA"
X Link 2023-12-27T22:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Rising EM currencies is one of the reasons we see a continuing slide in the dollar in addition to Fed rate cuts a recession and de-dollarization. We expect a falling dollar will be one of the major stories of [----]. $SA This will likely become one of the most important charts for the upcoming new year. Emerging market currencies after a prolonged decline are on the brink of a significant breakout indicating the potential start of a more favorable era for these economies particularly the https://t.co/3d80obUwzl This will likely become one of the most important charts for the upcoming new year."
X Link 2023-12-31T16:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Cheer-leading analysts think Fed rate cuts expected in [----] reflect Fed success in battling inflation (as if Fed predictions are suddenly going to turn right) when the biggest benefit is a reduction in the deficit (for as long as the rate cuts last). $SA @Wbp193 @Stimpyz1 @Sorenthek @DiMartinoBooth @jgpuck99 @EPBResearch 2/ When the only thing you can politically cut to avoid a debt/deficit/rate spiral are interest rates you are in the early stages of Latin American-style fiscal dominance (with US characteristics.) @Wbp193 @Stimpyz1 @Sorenthek @DiMartinoBooth @jgpuck99 @EPBResearch 2/ When"
X Link 2023-12-31T17:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Having its trade deficit fund its budget deficit for decades thanks to having the world's reserve currency and most liquid sovereign debt market the US was not another Argentina despite its twin deficits. The US trade deficit is no longer being sterilized. Budget deficits are no longer being funded by foreigners. The $DXY is headed down. $SA 99.9% of US investors have bought into Treasury can run 8.5% deficits/ GDP on top of 124% debt/GDP. If that is correct we were idiots for the first [---] years of this Republic not to pursue these policies & Argentina & Greece would be the [--] wealthiest"
X Link 2023-12-31T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The PBOC is no longer trying to constrain its balance sheet. Avoiding liquidity problems beats inflation concerns every time. $SA OOPS PBOC boosts daily liquidity injection to 50bn Yuan. The Chinese central bank says the operation is aimed at ensuring reasonably ample banking liquidity https://t.co/1xAknz0b9i OOPS PBOC boosts daily liquidity injection to 50bn Yuan. The Chinese central bank says the operation is aimed at ensuring reasonably ample banking liquidity https://t.co/1xAknz0b9i"
X Link 2024-01-02T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The pressure's on to fund the runaway #deficit now 7% of GDP. The deficit is driving the illusion of #gdpgrowth and the exploding interest expense is just another form of stimmy for holders of #debt. Financial conditions have never been looser. Inflation has bottomed and is on the threshold of a second wave. Rate cuts are on tap. $DXY is hanging by a thread. And a recession is coming. $SA Big dollars Short calendar time What next @GoldSeabridge Big dollars Short calendar time What next @GoldSeabridge"
X Link 2024-01-04T04:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"JPM says the proportion of the worlds oil traded in currencies other than the US dollar has risen to about 20% as reported by @LukeGromen. Twelve major oil contracts settled in nondollars in [----] compared with [--] in [----] and just [--] from [----] through [----]. These deals support demand for gold as the means of final settlement. $SA"
X Link 2024-01-06T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Major Fed News: Speaking at an event in San Antonio on Saturday Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said its now appropriate to begin discussing the parameters around a Fed decision to slow the pace of its balance-sheet runoff (QT). Her comments suggested the Fed has financial stability (liquidity) concerns. While Logan said there is still more than enough liquidity in the financial system she noted some individual banks could start to see constraints. In my view we should slow the pace of runoff as ON #RRP balances approach a low level Logan said referencing the #Feds overnight reverse"
X Link 2024-01-08T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We understand it was selling by ETFs. RBC reported as follows: Gold equities decreased by 4.0% and gold equity ETF holdings recorded significant outflows of $298m (the largest outflow since April 2023: -$394m). Larger weekly equity price changes for companies under coverage relative to the index include Argonaut Gold (-14%) Coeur Mining (-13%) Gold Fields (-12%) and Bellevue Gold (-11%). No short position data was reported in the U.S. or Canada this week. $SA"
X Link 2024-01-09T03:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

""The high cost of capital paying a 9.8% interest rate on a small business loans hurts and it compares with the [--] yr average of 5.9% and the 5% and under it was atin [----] and 2021." From @pboockvar Whether [--] Fed cuts or [--] rates are not going back to where they were. $SA"
X Link 2024-01-09T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We pull out of this funk when the narrative changes. When it's clear there's a recession or the deficit can't be financed without the Fed the US can't hold an acceptable election the dollar falls the yen carry trade unwinds or inflation returns. Just [--] or [--] of these will do it. $SA @GoldSeabridge When do we pull out of this decline My miners are taking it in the shorts @GoldSeabridge When do we pull out of this decline My miners are taking it in the shorts"
X Link 2024-01-10T01:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"From @rcwhalen: "The steady increase in calls for the Fed to end its balance sheet runoff (aka 'QT' in Fed newspeak) is really not about interest rates or the economy but all about poor execution in the US Treasury market. Dallas Fed President Lori Repo Logan the intellectual author of the Fed's various liquidity facilities has been among those officials saying that the Fed should maybe end its balance sheet contraction soon. Thats a hint." More concerns about Treasury market liquidity. "Ponder the bid-to-cover ratio of the 10-year Treasury note below. Notice that the ratio has steadily"
X Link 2024-01-10T19:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"From RBC: "There was renewed optimism in the #copper sector in December following several supply disruptions in Q4/2023 including the shutdown of Cobre Panama (1.5% of global supply) and guidance downgrades from Anglo American and others (reducing our [----] supply estimate by 3% or 700kt). "We recently increased our [----] price estimate to $4.25/lb from $3.88/lb and we see upside to this price given the recent challenges faced by the industry which have created a reluctance to start large scale projects." $SA"
X Link 2024-01-11T18:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Does this look like business as usual This morning Bloomberg reports #China's #CPI "marked its longest streak of declines since [----] extending the deflation that may require more government support to reverse". Exports posted their first annual decline in seven years. TheCPI slipped 0.3% in December from a year earlier in line with economists' expectations for a third straight month of declines. Factory-gate costsdropped 2.7% and have been falling for more than a year because of lower commodity prices and weak demand at home and abroad. Chinese exports meanwhilefell4.6% in the first annual"
X Link 2024-01-12T18:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Seabridge Gold defines a second profitable [--] million plus oz gold project in Canada. Our 100%-owned Courageous Lake Project is in the bottom quartile of the industry's all-in-sustaining cost curve with an after-tax NPV (5%) of US$523 MILLION and a CAPEX payback in [---] years"
X Link 2024-01-17T14:00Z [----] followers, 69.9K engagements

"NEWS ALERT 📰 Seabridge Gold Applies to the BC Government for Substantially Started Status for its KSM Project"
X Link 2024-01-17T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Modeer030 Yep. We think Fed QE is inevitable because the debt/deficit is too big for the market to fund"
X Link 2024-01-18T04:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"We have noted increasing selling pressure on the Treasury market as commercial banks downsize holdings central banks turn into net sellers and the Fed shrinks its balance sheet via QT. As of [----] Social Security benefits started to exceed inflow requiring the program to dip into the trust fund which holds $3T in Treasuries. Another buyer becomes a seller and an ever growing one. The pace of retirements is quickening and payments to retirees are indexed to inflation. By [----] the fund will be empty. There is something as certain as death and taxes.QE. $SA"
X Link 2024-01-19T00:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Tonight ET (Monday) the BOJ meets. Has there been enough wage inflation for the BOJ to drop or significantly widen its yield curve control policy If so unwind of the yen carry trade could suck massive amounts of capital back to Japan weakening the dollar and US markets. $SA"
X Link 2024-01-22T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The Japanese yen is rising against the dollar this morning after yesterday's meeting of the BOJ hinted it could reach its inflation target soon and therefore end its Yield Curve Control policy in March or April"
X Link 2024-01-24T13:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The first iteration of real Q4 GDP growth annualized was reported today at 3.3% Our preferred measure of Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers rose 2.7% What do these numbers tell us Not much in our view"
X Link 2024-01-25T19:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"In an economy where federal gov't spending accounts for 37% of GDP and the federal deficit accounts for more than all nominal GDP growth we need to focus on measures of real private investment and production not gov't spending. @spomboy @pboockvar @LawrenceLepard"
X Link 2024-01-25T19:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Asset inflation and speculative bubbles require monetary fuel. The Feds balance sheet contracted about $800 last year to $7.65T and is today $1.25T smaller compared to its July [--] peak. Moreover the M2 monetary aggregate contracted $600B last year as bank lending slowed markedly. Where is the money coming from to fuel historic asset inflation The answer is massively leveraged speculationliquidity that can disappear in a moment. See Doug Noland $SA"
X Link 2024-01-28T02:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Companies with layoffs announced over the last [--] months: [--]. Twitch: 35% of workforce [--]. iRobot: 31% of workforce [--]. Hasbro: 20% of workforce [--]. Spotify: 17% of workforce [--]. Levi's: 15% of workforce [--]. Zerox: 15% of workforce [--]. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce [--]. Wayfair: 13% of workforce [--]. Duolingo: 10% of workforce [--]. Washington Post: 10% of workforce [--]. eBay: 9% of workforce [--]. Business Insider: 8% of workforce [--]. Paypal: 7% of workforce [--]. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce [--]. Blackrock: 3% of workforce [--]. UPS: 2% of workforce [--]. Salesforce: 1% of workforce [--]. Citigroup: [-----] employees"
X Link 2024-01-31T02:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"SO WHAT HAPPENED AT THE FED TODAY. Basically nothing. The market learned it has not been listening to Powell and had invented a bunch of early rate cuts. The most important announcement today: the shares of New York Community Bancorp collapsed after reporting a surprise loss for the 4th quarter and a huge cut to its dividend. The quarterly loss was $252 million vs a $206 million profit analysts had predicted. There is never only one dear reader. This bank's problems are shared by hundreds of others. No early Fed rate cuts will bring other bodies to the surface. And the FOMC in its statement"
X Link 2024-01-31T23:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Is the cascade of non-performing CRE loans beginning to impact precious metals markets Over $1.5T of commercial real estate loans mature in 2023-4-5 the bulk of which were financed when rates were near zero. Refinance rates are 7%+ if available at all. Cantor Fitzgerald has predicted $700B in defaults this year and next. Properties will be taken over by banks whose mortgages will become 'equity' and losses will have to be recognized. Banks will be the losers. $SA"
X Link 2024-02-01T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The Commercial Real Estate Bubble is bursting. Banks are are in trouble. Bailouts coming Following aprofit warningfrom New York Community Bancorp on Wednesday largely attributed to unfolding disaster in the commercial real estate sector its shares plunged 38% triggering the largest drop in the KBW Regional Banking Index since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last March. Today Japan's Aozora Bank has slashed the value of some of its US office tower loans by more than 50% according to Bloomberg. Aozora is the 16th largest in Japan by market value. After reporting a net loss of [--] billion yen"
X Link 2024-02-01T17:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"NEWS ALERT 📰 Seabridge Gold Provides Updated Mineral Resource Estimate for KSM's Kerr and Iron Cap Deposits"
X Link 2024-02-05T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Expectations of a big drop in the YoY consumer price index (from +3.4% to +2.9%) were disappointed. The YoY print for headline CPI was 3.1%. Consumer prices rose 0.3% MoM (more than the 0.2% expected). Core CPI fell below 4.00% YoY for the first time since May [----] but the +3.86% YoY print was hotter than the 3.7% expected with prices rising 0.4% MoM the biggest jump since April [----]. Source: Bloomberg Market expectations of [----] rate hikes have fallen from 5-6 two weeks ago to 3-4. This has put a bid under the dollar and depressed the gold price. There will come a time when gold is driven"
X Link 2024-02-13T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

""Bloomberg reports brokers have begun to sell debt secured by office buildings in Manhattan owned by Blackstone Inc. at a staggering 50% discount. A prime-time tower in Los Angeles was auctioned off in December fetching 45% lower than its purchase price a decade ago. Additionally the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has recorded a 40% loss on $15 billion worth of loans it disposed of secured by apartment buildings in New York City." $SA Reported in Zerohedge 2/14/2024"
X Link 2024-02-14T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Dioclet54046121 While CRE is imploding on bank balance sheets"
X Link 2024-02-14T14:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Today's CRE disaster: a [--] story building located at [----] Market St. in the center of Philadelphia which Philadelphia Business Journal notes has "joined a growing list" of distressed office properties in the city. [----] backs a loan of $59.4 million set to mature in January [----]. The building was acquired for $85 million in [----]. The building generated about $6.6 million in net operating income when the loan was written in [----] however that number has now fallen to under $4.4 million in [----] and interest rates have risen at the same time. Prediction: this loan will default and the property"
X Link 2024-02-15T23:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Something To Watch: the Bloomberg GVLQUSD Index which measures Treasury liquidity. How well do Treasury prices conform to the ideal Treasury yield curve The index has signaled falling liquidity until it suddenly exploded higher last week. Somebody did something. H/T @LukeGromen $SA @LawrenceLepard So this is something worth paying attention to. One of my favorite academic finance papers is the [----] JF paper by Prof Pan Jun "Noise as Information" that argues the goodness of fit (or lack thereof) around the parametric Treasury yield curve is a good measure of Treasury https://t.co/v7eE5KH7OS So"
X Link 2024-02-18T00:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Under the hood inflation looked stronger in January From Bloomberg Intelligence (Anna Wong and Stuart Paul): If Fed officials were hoping to see a broadening of the disinflation process in the January CPI report their wish didnt come true. "
X Link 2024-02-19T22:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

""The share of core spending categories experiencing outright monthly deflation declined to 29% from 44% prior. The share experiencing modest annualized inflation of 0.0%-2.0% fell to just 6% from 11% prior"
X Link 2024-02-19T22:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The following summary of some of the most shocking layoffs that we have seen recentlycomes from Zero Hedge [--]. Twitch: 35% of workforce [--]. Roomba: 31% of workforce [--]. Hasbro: 20% of workforce [--]. LA Times: 20% of workforce [--]. Spotify: 17% of workforce [--]. Levi's: 15% of workforce [--]. Xerox: 15% of workforce [--]. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce [--]. Wayfair: 13% of workforce [--]. Duolingo: 10% of workforce [--]. Washington Post: 10% of workforce 12: Snap: 10% of workforce [--]. eBay: 9% of workforce [--]. Business Insider: 8% of workforce [--]. Paypal: 7% of workforce [--]. Okta: 7% of workforce [--]. Charles Schwab:"
X Link 2024-02-23T00:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Perus economy posted its second-worst contraction in more than [--] years in [----] as political turmoil and extreme weather hurt the once booming nation. The impact on global metal supplies is significant. Development of our KSM project is becoming more critical. $SA"
X Link 2024-02-23T22:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Today's largest ever Treasury auction of [--] year paper.$63 billion.yielded 4.691% [----] bps above last month's [--] year sale. Today's auction tailed the When Issued 4.689% by 0.2bps the first [--] year with a tail since November. There was more mediocrity: the bid to cover dropped to [-----] down from [-----] last month and the lowest since March [----]. Even this paper is a little rough around the edges and this is the easy stuff except the amounts keep getting bigger. $SA"
X Link 2024-02-26T17:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Japan's January core CPI rose 2.0% yr/yr vs forecast 1.8% as markets expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to end negative rates in March or April. Waning cost-push inflation from commodity imports is expected to be offset by hefty pay hikes to be offered by big firms at labour-management wage talks on March [--] that would pave the way for the BOJ to end negative interest rates. This could pressure the yen carry trade and bring capital back to Japan from US security markets including the Treasury market. $SA"
X Link 2024-02-27T17:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"It cost $834.2 billion in new debt during Fiscal Q3 to grow the US economy by $334.5 billion or exactly $2.5 in debt for every $1 in nominal GDP "growth." Zerohedge 2/28/2024 $SA"
X Link 2024-02-28T15:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"All regional manufacturing surveys remain in contraction in February except Philly. The Chicago PMI remains well below [--] at [--] vs [--] in January and [--] pts below expectations. H/T @pboockvar Chicago PMI: not the picture of health"
X Link 2024-02-29T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"These two things seem contradictory: US debt growth is accelerating Treasury term premia are negative (the yield curve is inverted such that short term debt pays higher interest than duration) We think yields have to rise putting more pressure on economy banks markets. $SA"
X Link 2024-03-03T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Gold set a new all-time closing high last Friday and media commentators neither noticed nor cared. Today the breakout continues and no one seems to know why. We see two reasons: inflation has turned back up and the pace of new debt continues to accelerate. $SA"
X Link 2024-03-04T17:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The Fed has lost its remaining credibility. Raising rates at a record pace with debt/GDP at 120%+ has created a new QE.$1T+ annual interest expense plus a soaring deficit funded by more debt which has a high degree of moneyness plus government spending at 25%+ of GDP"
X Link 2024-03-04T17:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The Japanese yen is strengthening to [---] to the dollar today as Bloomberg reports "bets on a hike at the March 18-19 meeting are gaining traction" (almost 80%). Bloomberg notes rumors are emerging that some BOJ officialsfavoran early move while somegovernment officialsalso support a rate hike. A BOJ rate hike could have serious consequences for US markets as Japanese institutions are incentivized to take capital home. $SA"
X Link 2024-03-07T19:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TheNextBigRush This comparison makes no sense. Typical of BTC fans who continually look for these comparison to gain credibility especially with the precious metals. Silver is actually an important industrial metal with real uses which is largely produced as a by-product. $SA"
X Link 2024-03-11T14:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@VVRekt14 @Tu_Quoque_4_U @PeterNBell @LaurenceRHunt for you to tell me what BTC is worth you need dollars. Gold is measured in weight. $SA"
X Link 2024-03-11T14:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@VVRekt14 @Tu_Quoque_4_U @PeterNBell @LaurenceRHunt Selectively choosing a short period of time to establish performance is silly"
X Link 2024-03-12T01:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@VVRekt14 @Tu_Quoque_4_U @PeterNBell @LaurenceRHunt The 1970s were a more inflationary period. Gold is not only an inflationary hedge; it's also a protection against default. And you really need to extend your time line many decades. In any given period any crazy narrative can dominate"
X Link 2024-03-12T01:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Copper's May futures contract closed up [---] cents today to $4.12 per pound nearing a new [--] week high at $4.19. $SA has [-----] Billion pounds of Measured and Indicated copper resources on our KSM project in BC's Golden Triangle. A good time to be negotiating a JV on KSM"
X Link 2024-03-15T20:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Goldman Sachs: Copper's Time is Now After a prolonged downturn incremental evidence now points to a bottoming out in the industrial cycle with the global manufacturing PMI in expansion for the first time since September [----]. Our economists believe this trend of improvement in manufacturing activity should continue underpinned by resilient global growth and progressive monetary easing. Crucially previous troughs in global manufacturing cycles have been associated with subsequent sustained metals upside with copper and aluminium rising on average 25% and 9% over the next [--] months (Exhibit 1)."
X Link 2024-03-17T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Nick Timiraos March [--] [----] WSJ: The Feds Challenge: Has It Hit the Brakes Hard Enough Resilient economy weakens argument that monetary policy is too tight but that could soon change. Hopes for early Fed rate cuts are fading $SA"
X Link 2024-03-18T00:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

""We do not expect gold equity valuations to remain this cheap for long. On 3/1/24 the ISM Manufacturing Index reported its 16th consecutive contractionary reading (falling from [----] to 47.8) instantly reigniting handicapping of imminent Fed rate cuts. During the following two trading sessions spot gold rallied 3.4% ($70) and the GDM Index of gold shares soared 7.56%. "In our experience no sector recovers more rapidly from oversold conditions than gold shares" Trey Reik Bristol Gold Group LLC"
X Link 2024-03-18T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"So what did the BOJ do They raised the policy rate on the short end to zero (NIRP to ZIRP) and officially ended YCC for the [--] yr. Underwhelming but a start. Will they let the [--] yr fall and how far Will they raise the policy rate on an ongoing basis"
X Link 2024-03-19T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Last week after almost a decade Japan finally exited negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control (YYC) primarily on the back of soaring nominal wage gains: Japans largest trade union confederation announced last Friday its members have secured pay deals averaging 5.28% far outpacing the 3.8% of a year ago itself the highest gain in [--] years. However real wages are falling due to inflation as the next chart shows The BOJ must dramatically tighten much more than the "dovish hike last week which sent the yen plunging to a multi-decade low and importing more inflation. Source: Bloomberg Rate"
X Link 2024-03-25T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The market's rate cut expectations for [----] have dropped from [--] to [--] but gold continues to set new highs. Why Massive inflation everywhere except government inflation statistics. As Rabobank observes look at other data from the economy (see post below). $SA Record highs in gold make sense: "So if youre still looking at markets solely through the lens of central bank rates i.e. low rates are good and high rates are bad then consider this: net worth is at all-time highs stock prices are at all-time highs housing prices are at Record highs in gold make sense: "So if youre still looking at"
X Link 2024-03-26T14:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Reported by @pboockvar: "The tough talk on yen intervention took another amp up today. A few days ago we heard some verbal intervention from the deputy finance minister and the market yawned. Today the finance minister himself Shunichi Suzuki said 'We are watching market moves with a high sense of urgency. We will take bold measures against excessive moves without ruling out any options' and the yen is moving somewhat. "Also a more hawkish member of the BoJ Naoki Tamura wants more rate hikes. He said in a speech 'The handling of monetary policy is extremely important from here on for slow but"
X Link 2024-03-27T16:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Rate cut odds for the June meeting have dropped to 40%. The US [--] yr yield is quietly rising to the highest level since late November. These should be headwinds for gold but they aren't. Gold's momentum isn't due to the outlook for Fed policy. Debt dynamics have taken over. $SA"
X Link 2024-04-02T21:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"There are more dormant office towers in the United States than at any time since [----] according to a new report from Moody's Analytics which began tracking office leasing vacancies that year. The consequence Pressure on regional banks leading to Fed rate cuts and bailouts $SA"
X Link 2024-04-04T13:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Dr Hoenig a former FOMC voting member predicts the purchasing power of the US dollar (and other world fiat currencies) will continue to decline due to current policies and the lack of a discipline to money creation. Until such a discipline is restored (perhaps a return to some sort of hard backing of the currency) the dollars fall in purchasing power wont abate. from Thoughful Money via Zerohedge 4/5/2024. $SA"
X Link 2024-04-05T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@justinmill200 @PeterNBell KSM is definitely not dead. It was highly profitable at much lower gold and copper prices. Majors are suitably careful with very big projects requiring very large capital commitments in an inflationary environment. Stay tuned. $SA"
X Link 2024-04-09T21:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing