@Frencheconomics Simon French
Simon French posts on X about inflation, debt, gdp, investment the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance #3892 currencies countries travel destinations technology brands cryptocurrencies social networks stocks us election automotive brands
Social topic influence inflation #299, debt, gdp #77, investment, has been, in the #6632, rates, gdp growth #9, money, events
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @thetimes @truemagic68 @johnstepek @billwells_1 @conkers3 @trevgoes4th @asentance @henrynewman @timesbusiness @dmcwilliamsuk @ft @chrisgiles @philaldrick @billwells1 @julianhjessop @ianmulheirn @wilfredfrost @gfk @jjpjolly @brucereuters
Top assets mentioned April (APRIL) Spike (SPIKE)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@asentance @DMcWilliams_UK Yes. That position was certainly my baseline (H1 2023) before yesterday - and Im reluctant to whipsaw on a headline. BUT in normal recessions the Okun relationship would have UK unemployment 10% by now - so the JRS/ SEISS protections this time make this anything but normal"
X Link 2020-11-10T09:01Z 18.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Terrific illustration from Next plc on the slowdown in price inflation that has been faster than we expected & throughout the entire supply chain. Part of the body of data alongside official statistics for the MPC to consider today. Next plc RNS remain best in class"
X Link 2023-09-21T06:20Z 18.4K followers, 48.8K engagements
"Next plc raising their bar chart game in their Q3 update. Interesting to see whether the🌪 emoji makes it into the Q4 release"
X Link 2023-11-01T08:07Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements
"V decent trading update from Next plc - an important UK retail bellwether with full price sales +5.6% in [--] weeks to [--] Dec. Chimes with what retailers/hospitality have been saying about Dec - it rebounded from a soft autumn. Points to UK GDP in Q4 recovering from a soggy October"
X Link 2024-01-04T07:32Z 18.4K followers, 19.3K engagements
"That bellwether of UK consumer demand - Next plc - showing this AM a clear pick up in full price sales from end of July. Tallies with evidence from B&M that the midmarket UK consumer has had a better few weeks than the weather-impacted mid-summer. Decent indicator of firmer spending appetite after the first UK rate cut. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1836658515886182458 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1836658515886182458"
X Link 2024-09-19T06:48Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"As I said to Sally the pre-Budget speculation has largely been well handled by the government on the macro side (capital spending/ fiscal rules) and poorly on the micro side (tax lock working people definition). Typically sovereign debt markets care more about the macro. Lets see whether that is the case today"
X Link 2024-10-30T05:48Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Simon is correct. These new policies cost a further 5bn/year - and from what the chairman of Reform UK says in this Telegraph piece they are financed by cuts (to net zero migrant hotels foreign aid) already announced as financing the 141bn of existing spending pledges. Whatever the wisdom/ethics of these policy positions from the perspective of Gilt markets they just signal more UK debt issuance. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1926531704044376529 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1926531704044376529"
X Link 2025-05-25T06:52Z 18.5K followers, 37K engagements
"Some interesting trends in the latest Bankstats for June providing details on UK cash balance sheets & credit demand. First up was an inevitable rise in cash ISA balances - now up 57bn over the last [--] months - amidst ongoing speculation over that product's future (1/4)"
X Link 2025-07-29T10:11Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Decent UK GDP growth in June - and revisions higher to April - meaning UK GDP of +0.3% in Q2. UK currently the fastest growing G7 economy in H1 at an annualised rate of 2.2%"
X Link 2025-08-14T06:37Z 18.5K followers, 49.1K engagements
"The deterioration in both the total UK borrowing requirement (162bn; 12m rolling) and current budget deficit (86bn) is pretty stark since last year's General Election. Borrowing to fund investment - as the fiscal rules changes of October [----] provided air cover to do - is more defendable. A 68% increase in the current budget deficit in [--] months is less so"
X Link 2025-09-19T07:10Z 18.5K followers, 94.5K engagements
"@BBCSimonJack @asentance The UK household sector was 750bn net debt in [----]. Today net cash for the first time in aggregate (1.95tn cash; 1.87tn debt). That is the quite the deleveraging cycle. If that sector even stabilised then consumer spending growth would rebound vs recent trends"
X Link 2025-10-12T15:29Z 18.4K followers, [---] engagements
"UK government current budget deficit tracking 15bn more than projected in March at 84bn ytd. Securonomics and the Oct [--] change to the UK fiscal rules was about boosting capital spending and balancing the current budget. The latter is tacking off in the wrong direction. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1991777494765130093 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1991777494765130093"
X Link 2025-11-21T07:55Z 18.5K followers, 11.3K engagements
"And this data is why for all the negativity surrounding UK economic sentiment it is hard to stack up a recessionary forecast. With household cash balances in aggregate in a strong position (gross hhld cash 2tn; gross hhld debt 1.8tn) the upside risk remains any reversion to more modest cash balance accrual potentially geared by some re-leveraging. Quite clear in the data how the speculation of the last three fiscal events in the UK has triggered some precautionary saving from households. Total cash balances across cash sight & time accounts and ISAs now above [--] trillion for the first time"
X Link 2026-01-05T10:56Z 18.4K followers, 15.4K engagements
"Our estimates of the impact of the Greenland tariffs on the UK economy are reproduced here: A flat 10% levy on 60bn of goods is not significant enough to change the broad growth outlook for [----]. What worries me is escalation through LNG imports (a big strategic weakness that the UKs mad energy policy has actively enabled) that would hit a much larger part of the economy through higher energy prices and tighter corporate margins. https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/trump-us-greenland-tariffs-n3tt0hjdv"
X Link 2026-01-19T06:24Z 18.4K followers, 12.5K engagements
"@John_Stepek Make them IHT exempt and the 10Y starts with a 3"
X Link 2026-01-19T09:41Z 18.4K followers, 170.1K engagements
"This looks fishy to me. Rightmove had been undershooting other UK HPIs for around [--] months - so this looks more like a bridge up to the Nationwide Halifax and Land Registry data rather than a sudden rebound in sentiment. Rightmove reports largest ever January price jump: Average asking prices are now back to where they were last Summer. https://t.co/5B1F3b1qAM https://t.co/Oz75Bk6oMs Rightmove reports largest ever January price jump: Average asking prices are now back to where they were last Summer. https://t.co/5B1F3b1qAM https://t.co/Oz75Bk6oMs"
X Link 2026-01-19T13:15Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Another point of considerable interest is U6 unemployment - including those in part time work because they cant find a full time role. Up to 7.7%. This data is an important driver of the pay bargain (outside regulated pay) and illustrates quite the softening of the UK labour market. A very welcome fall in UK working age inactivity in today's labour market stats - down to 20.8% its lowest since Feb [----] having peaked at 22.2% in March [----]. What is less encouraging is how that composition has changed. Stubborn rise of more than half a million long term https://t.co/YDTrVgm6dV A very welcome"
X Link 2026-01-20T09:58Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"UK CPI inflation modestly ahead of market expectations at +3.4% YoY (+3.2% prev.). The evolution of the index left consumer price growth slightly ahead of its [----] growth but that was heavily driven by the April price shock which looks unlikely to repeat in [----]. Expect the annual inflation rate to move down closer to target in Q2 [--]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013876226578845776 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013876226578845776"
X Link 2026-01-21T07:28Z 18.4K followers, 10.8K engagements
"Two decade long catastrophe. Trump attacks British energy policy as catastrophic. On that hes not wrong. Trump attacks British energy policy as catastrophic. On that hes not wrong"
X Link 2026-01-21T16:09Z 18.4K followers, 70.4K engagements
"Quite the bounce in UK PMIs taking the composite to a 21-month high of [----]. New Year enthusiasm or a durable rebound The balance of all available economic data suggests a modest rebound in sentiment since the November Budget but the qualitative comments in the PMI release about ongoing price pressures are likely to cap that enthusiasm. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014638350372680179 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014638350372680179"
X Link 2026-01-23T09:56Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"The Pound on a tear again vs USD - testing [----]. Now up an extraordinary 29% on its Mini Budget lows of September [----]. Whilst largely a Dollar softening story (comparable to [----] & 2017) the trade-weighted Sterling index is also up 16% over the same period"
X Link 2026-01-27T15:37Z 18.4K followers, 22.6K engagements
"You have to go back to pre-GFC to see anything comparable. Given how implicitly long USD UK portfolios are this has the potential (should it continue) to be quite painful for unhedged positions. The Pound on a tear again vs USD - testing [----]. Now up an extraordinary 29% on its Mini Budget lows of September [----]. Whilst largely a Dollar softening story (comparable to [----] & 2017) the trade-weighted Sterling index is also up 16% over the same period. https://t.co/XlqPcjaro1 The Pound on a tear again vs USD - testing [----]. Now up an extraordinary 29% on its Mini Budget lows of September 2022."
X Link 2026-01-27T15:41Z 18.4K followers, 16.9K engagements
"I certainly think some of GBP strength is rate differentials on more sticky UK inflation. But there was - whisper it quietly - some overdone positioning of USD assets as the only game in town. Even a marginal reassessment of that v crowded trade can be very procyclical. John deserves a lot of credit for that [----] call. Always easier to see in hindsight. Ive always found the Pound is an EM currency a great buy signal https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016187133656969630 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016187133656969630"
X Link 2026-01-27T16:30Z 18.4K followers, [---] engagements
"I think this is the right take from @MrRBourne. I would love to see Prosper UK succeed as the mission statement is exactly what is needed. But policy positions like abolishing the triple lock freezing the National Living Wage (and tying future increases to productivity growth) permissioning all forms of North Sea energy introducing DC pension schemes across the public sector & incentivising UK investment allocation - and then arguing FOR these positions - would be a real statement of intent. NEW COLUMN: British Business Needs More Than Centrist Vibes. My take on @Prosper_UK_"
X Link 2026-01-28T19:40Z 18.4K followers, 21.2K engagements
"An economic renewal plan for the UK needs to have a pretty clear diagnosis of how this was allowed to happen. Even stripping out huge Chinese expansion of car production UK car production has lagged the RoW. Brexit and the complete madness of driving up energy costs to highest in the world are the "drivers" (sorry not sorry). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016784642959921653 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016784642959921653"
X Link 2026-01-29T08:05Z 18.4K followers, 37.6K engagements
"A long note out today detailing my outlook for the UK economy. The best cultural reference I could think of was this one. Very mindful it ages me"
X Link 2026-01-30T06:29Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Who'd be an economic forecaster A couple of very notable moves in the conditional assumptions that will underpin the BoE's Monetary Policy Report on Thursday. First Natural Gas - a proper move since the assumption was "probably" taken (1/4)"
X Link 2026-02-02T10:56Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"What to do Take the sub 70p/therm curve that held till mid-Jan Or reflect the recent rebound to 80p/therm and hold the November [----] assumption That choice will be a big influence on the central forecast for UK inflation (2/4)"
X Link 2026-02-02T10:56Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Second Sterling. The index has unwound most of the H2 [----] weakness & now 2% above the conditional assumption used back in November. Probably some muting of imported inflation comes from a stronger GBP but much of this will hinge on USD sentiment which is v volatile (3/4) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018277442373169168 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018277442373169168"
X Link 2026-02-02T10:56Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"$2.3tn knocked off global software stocks since the end of October. $2.1tn of that in the US equity market. We are conditioned to old economy disintermediation. Claude AI is disintermediating the disintermediators"
X Link 2026-02-04T12:55Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"To the degree to which Gilt market pricing is a reasonable bellwether of political unease in the UK the spread to the 10Y G7 max/ median has moved out 10-15bp over the last fortnight - unwinding about half of the (relative) rally in 10Y Gilts since last year's November Budget. So some unease but probably also an acknowledgement that the path to a leadership change in the Labour Party and a mandate for a different economic path is still very unclear. And it's not like other sovereign or risk assets are devoid of their own concerns right now Gilt pricing (&GBP) more likely to change when one of"
X Link 2026-02-05T07:52Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"There was always likely to be a race to make unbacked digital assets too big/ too systemic to fail as one of the entry routes into the mainstream. Bessent calling time on that seemingly closes down that route. Back to "use cases". TREASURY SAYS IT CANNOT BAIL OUT BITCOIN Senator Sherman asked if the Treasury could intervene to bail out Bitcoin. Treasury Secretary Bessent responded that he has no authority to use taxpayer dollars to buy the cryptocurrency. TREASURY SAYS IT CANNOT BAIL OUT BITCOIN Senator Sherman asked if the Treasury could intervene to bail out Bitcoin. Treasury Secretary"
X Link 2026-02-05T08:04Z 18.4K followers, 11.6K engagements
"@peterjbirks Maybe although I have always thought stablecoins as the more appropriate asset for that additive use case"
X Link 2026-02-05T09:01Z 18.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Option [--]. Move en masse to Hull. 🚨 NEW: MPs and peers must vote on two options to restore the Palace of Westminster 1: Fully move-out for [----] years (11-15bn) 2: Phased works over [----] years in which the Lords move out to a conference centre and MPs use their chamber for [--] years from [----] (19-39bn) 🚨 NEW: MPs and peers must vote on two options to restore the Palace of Westminster 1: Fully move-out for [----] years (11-15bn) 2: Phased works over [----] years in which the Lords move out to a conference centre and MPs use their chamber for [--] years from [----] (19-39bn)"
X Link 2026-02-06T09:01Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@PhilAldrick Lack of hiring. I wonder why. The conspiracy of silence on the decoupling of starter wage rates and productivity since [----] is deafening"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:40Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@billwells_1 @PhilAldrick We agree. I knew it would happen eventually"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:51Z 18.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Since [----] the real terms value of the National Living Wage has gone up 32% whilst productivity has risen by just 6%. This and a trio of other employment costs have put the UK labour market into reverse. My thoughts in todays @thetimes here: https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/higher-costs-for-employers-stunt-britains-economic-growth-l67swlvp6 https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/higher-costs-for-employers-stunt-britains-economic-growth-l67swlvp6"
X Link 2026-02-09T06:15Z 18.5K followers, 16.5K engagements
"With a non-paywall version available here: https://panmureliberum.com/insights/higher-costs-for-employers-stunt-britain-s-economic-growth/ https://panmureliberum.com/insights/higher-costs-for-employers-stunt-britain-s-economic-growth/"
X Link 2026-02-09T06:44Z 18.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Id venture there would a 50bp additional Gilt spread if this were to represent the change in Labour leadership. Widely seen as the single biggest barrier to growth and to a lower cost of living from this government. 🗣 'It sounds a little bit like this is your own leadership pitch' - @SophyRidgeSky 🗣 'Absolute baloney' - @Ed_Miliband 🗣 'Are you interested at all - Sophy 🗣 'No I am interested in supporting Keir Starmer' - Ed https://t.co/pgTTtPQIDE https://t.co/6HnqmoRldp 🗣 'It sounds a little bit like this is your own leadership pitch' - @SophyRidgeSky 🗣 'Absolute baloney' - @Ed_Miliband"
X Link 2026-02-10T07:28Z 18.5K followers, 21.2K engagements
"👇💯 The UK's minimum wage is now around two-thirds of the median wage. On any objective measure it's one of the highest minimum wages in the world. It's a significant price-setting policy intervention. So what exactly is the argument here The UK's minimum wage is now around two-thirds of the median wage. On any objective measure it's one of the highest minimum wages in the world. It's a significant price-setting policy intervention. So what exactly is the argument here"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:17Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@Quant48 Your calculation is on the blink"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:56Z 18.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks for sharing David - a good read and certainly making the grocery market more contestable through planning reform would appear a very sensible proposal. What I struggle with is the idea of greater EU alignment bringing down costs. The price of food and drink has risen by less in the UK than in the EU-27 since Q1 [----] and this despite a substantial GBPEUR devaluation to absorb over the period. Also the most EU import intensive subcomponents for teh UK (fresh fruit & veg) have also followed this trend - arguably more. I think I struggle to see (despite the theory) how you could get to"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:08Z 18.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Tentative signs of a stabilisation in the UK labour market with vacancies now levelling off and payroll losses slowing. Headlines will focus on the rise in unemployment to 5.2% (as this govt and previous governments have overdone the burden on employers) but both the UK unemployment rate and inactivity rate are below the average of the last 25Y. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023659426943574212 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023659426943574212"
X Link 2026-02-17T07:22Z 18.6K followers, 23.8K engagements
"@DMcWilliams_UK Great work. What is the ticker for the market leader in laminated health and safety signs $HAZ $WARN"
X Link 2020-06-12T06:23Z 18.6K followers, [--] engagements
"I'll try. Good luck trying to "price in" an outcome when the process for a Labour leadership challenge is unclear at least six candidates look set to run if it does emerge and the chances that a soft left candidate (even if victorious) proves less fiscally expansionary than the platform they campaign on. Knowing all this I am not sure you'd take a conviction position https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023318635809255648 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023318635809255648"
X Link 2026-02-16T08:48Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Two successive quarters of falling GDP per capita. Five quarters of post-Election data for the UK - both GDP and GDP per capita tracking below the average of the preceding [--] years"
X Link 2026-02-12T07:06Z 18.6K followers, 115.7K engagements
"Loss of growth momentum since late [----] albeit the secondary surge in inflationary factors (NICs regulated prices mortgage refi) that drove this are steadily easing and real time indicators are trending higher in Q1 [--]. Two successive quarters of falling GDP per capita. Five quarters of post-Election data for the UK - both GDP and GDP per capita tracking below the average of the preceding [--] years. https://t.co/yV7Po8wAmF Two successive quarters of falling GDP per capita. Five quarters of post-Election data for the UK - both GDP and GDP per capita tracking below the average of the preceding"
X Link 2026-02-12T07:19Z 18.6K followers, 12.4K engagements
"If you want a silver lining to today's UK GDP data I'd point to two. Firstly UK GDP has either beaten or matched start of year consensus in each of the last four calendar years. That is impressive resilience (Black Knight from Monty Python vibes.). Secondly more timely economic data at the start of [----] has been more upbeat on expectation of an easing of inflation pressure in Q2. A new "ming vase" for domestic politics not to derail. Loss of growth momentum since late [----] albeit the secondary surge in inflationary factors (NICs regulated prices mortgage refi) that drove this are steadily"
X Link 2026-02-12T08:03Z 18.6K followers, 13.7K engagements
"As almost all recent Chancellor's have (correctly) noted the UK has a longstanding investment gap that undermines the ability to grow the economy sustainably. [----] was no different albeit the trend is modestly encouraging. The left of UK politics have an agenda they could seize on accelerating capital deployment (where this government have been trying in pockets of activity to turn the tanker around) and lowering the relative cost of capital vs consumption. And yet significant figures on the left waffle on about "deregulated markets" as if that is the impediment to sustained growth. If you"
X Link 2026-02-12T08:26Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements
"For the avoidance of doubt this is not a critique of the current government - simply presenting the available data since election day in [----] and comparing it to the previous political cycle. If there is a critique it is that the scale of ambition needed to restore UK competitiveness in energy labour and capital markets has been underestimated - and there is a conspiracy of silence on the trade offs needed to achieve this. Two successive quarters of falling GDP per capita. Five quarters of post-Election data for the UK - both GDP and GDP per capita tracking below the average of the preceding"
X Link 2026-02-12T08:54Z 18.6K followers, 24.5K engagements
"Catherine is right. Albeit the move from 48% to 66% of median earnings was done under Conservative governments - so the attribution of blame to Labour many are giving is unfair. The more just criticism is introducing the ERA & big increase in Employer NICs in full knowledge of these legacy NLW moves. UK minimum wage is raising youth unemployment Bank of England's Mann says https://t.co/giXJima5Vj https://t.co/giXJima5Vj https://t.co/Fx9z0fEnaC UK minimum wage is raising youth unemployment Bank of England's Mann says https://t.co/giXJima5Vj https://t.co/giXJima5Vj https://t.co/Fx9z0fEnaC"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:21Z 18.6K followers, 24.9K engagements
"UK 10-year yields down to 4.4% again this morning a full 70bp below the level in the OBR's November forecast. That's an 11bn addition to headroom on a mark-to-market basis - so not unhelpful ahead of the Spring Forecast in just over two weeks' time (if captured/conditioned). But dig below the surface and the spread between Gilts and other G7 sovereigns has nudged out by 20bp since Labour leadership speculation has amplified. That domestic discount is the more relevant piece of information for measuring "fiscal vibes""
X Link 2026-02-16T08:29Z 18.6K followers, 39.2K engagements
"Post Budget net job losses slowing from the three months that preceded it. If the penny is now dropping on policy/tax burden on employers then underlying demand can see this return to jobs growth (notwithstanding AI risks). Whether NLW policy gets revisited (66% of median hourly earnings makes the UK a significant outlier) or employer NICs headwind gets softened is far less clear The U6 unemployment rate (including those who cant find full time work and want it) nudging 8% of the working age population. First sustained rise outside the pandemic since the GFC. https://t.co/J3jNXvFAYQ The U6"
X Link 2026-02-17T07:46Z 18.6K followers, 29.1K engagements
"Markets now pricing in a March interest rate cut in the UK with an 80% probability. If Bailey/Mann are going to flip their vote from February will likely have to stack this up on emerging LM slack putting more downward pressure on price growth. Tricky comms with headline inflation by March not yet capturing big April base effects and hard to be certain that move back to inflation target is durable given CPI has averaged 3% since [----]. Post Budget net job losses slowing from the three months that preceded it. If the penny is now dropping on policy/tax burden on employers then underlying demand"
X Link 2026-02-17T09:23Z 18.6K followers, 11.6K engagements
"@truemagic68 @TrisOsborneMP @Conservatives How is this being funded given tax rate is at an [--] year high and we pay the highest interest rates on our public sector debt in the G7 Everyone is for additional spending until they specify what the funding vehicle is"
X Link 2026-02-17T09:33Z 18.6K followers, [---] engagements
"The U6 unemployment rate (including those who cant find full time work and want it) nudging 8% of the working age population. First sustained rise outside the pandemic since the GFC. Tentative signs of a stabilisation in the UK labour market with vacancies now levelling off and payroll losses slowing. Headlines will focus on the rise in unemployment to 5.2% (as this govt and previous governments have overdone the burden on employers) but both the UK https://t.co/9pQbzwqGHi Tentative signs of a stabilisation in the UK labour market with vacancies now levelling off and payroll losses slowing."
X Link 2026-02-17T07:33Z 18.6K followers, 22.1K engagements
"The UK has gone on a unilateral journey (amongst OECD countries) of decoupling the minimum hourly rate from productivity since [----]. Little surprise the picture is now creaking for starter jobs/ youth employment. Post Budget net job losses slowing from the three months that preceded it. If the penny is now dropping on policy/tax burden on employers then underlying demand can see this return to jobs growth (notwithstanding AI risks). Whether NLW policy gets revisited (66% of median hourly https://t.co/doiYGDFGK2 Post Budget net job losses slowing from the three months that preceded it. If the"
X Link 2026-02-17T14:27Z 18.6K followers, 13.2K engagements
"@truemagic68 A U.K. recession can possibly be avoided with enough fiscal activism - but Energy package & next weeks Fiscal event look like adding 200bn to PS borrowing before next G.E. If only there was a top Treasury mandarin to say that is brave Minister/feels a bit like 1972"
X Link 2022-09-13T05:20Z 18.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Second highest calendar year on record for UK public sector debt interest - 98.4bn or 3.2% of UK GDP. Comfortably in excess of the defence budget (with or without the overspend.) Some tempered good news for the UK public finances. The annual rate of cumulative borrowing both PSBR and current borrowing has started to moderate after a sustained post election decline. But. (1/2) https://t.co/d1NmoNv2CW Some tempered good news for the UK public finances. The annual rate of cumulative borrowing both PSBR and current borrowing has started to moderate after a sustained post election decline. But."
X Link 2026-01-22T08:01Z 18.6K followers, 21.4K engagements
"The story of the last thirty years: fastest per capita GDP growth pre-GFC middle of the pack through to CV-19 flatlining thereafter. Hard to argue faced by this data that the cumulative burden of frictions to competitive energy labour and capital markets (frictions which have all grown over this period) are pro-growth. For the avoidance of doubt this is not a critique of the current government - simply presenting the available data since election day in [----] and comparing it to the previous political cycle. If there is a critique it is that the scale of ambition needed to restore UK For the"
X Link 2026-02-12T10:59Z 18.6K followers, 26.8K engagements
"The thing the government should cling to is there has been a pick-up in our Economic Momentum Indicator (EMI) since the November Budget (moving off the bottom of the European league table) which chimes with what @dsmitheconomics has been saying about a better start to the year. The potential for political infighting in Labour to derail this is the strongest argument for the political status quo - all against the backdrop of underwhelming economic data. The story of the last thirty years: fastest per capita GDP growth pre-GFC middle of the pack through to CV-19 flatlining thereafter. Hard to"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:23Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements
"I agree with Angela. NLW NICs & ERA in one go (on the heels of auto enrolment) speaks to a lack of awareness on the cumulative cost to employers. Where was the labour market advice/analysis provided by HMT/DWP Or was it ignored Angela Rayner of all people has just said that the minimum wage going up is a "challenge" for businesses. "Too often people see businesses as all the same - theyre not. I talked about the challenges - its not even the double whammy its not even the triple whammy its Angela Rayner of all people has just said that the minimum wage going up is a "challenge" for"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:25Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The power of the default. Would be transformative for planning 👏👏 Germany's Merz: China builds the worlds largest solar farms within a few months. In the EU it takes years just for the project to get approved. Therefore I propose to implement a fundamental principle in most permitting processes: Any project that is not treated within a https://t.co/Ow9ldjOik9 Germany's Merz: China builds the worlds largest solar farms within a few months. In the EU it takes years just for the project to get approved. Therefore I propose to implement a fundamental principle in most permitting processes: Any"
X Link 2026-02-13T07:03Z 18.6K followers, 10.3K engagements
"@truemagic68 Heading to zero David. Strap in. 😂"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:38Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements
"RT @antonhowes: Extraordinary graph. Suggests that the national minimum wage has been set so high because only London (and the South East)"
X Link 2026-02-17T08:03Z 18.6K followers, [--] engagements
"There is in my opinion too much focus on intraday movements in asset prices. Most of yesterdays price action was US sentiment driven. What matters for UK cost of capital and hence growth is sustained moves - and in the last decade there have been three: 1) The softening of GBP and risk asset valuations in [----] post Brexit on economic growth concerns. 2) In [----] with an enhanced inflation premium on Gilt yields as the UKs energy policy got badly exposed. 3) From [----] a further move up on Gilt yields on a higher path for debt-financed public spending post election. Whether a shift to the left"
X Link 2026-01-23T07:45Z 18.6K followers, 35.5K engagements
"Just under three years ago the Resolution Foundation was calling for this to go even higher - to 73%. In their defence they did say subject to the Low Pay Commission "monitoring any impact from this agenda on employment." I think the LPC now have plenty to get their teeth into. The UK has gone on a unilateral journey (amongst OECD countries) of decoupling the minimum hourly rate from productivity since [----]. Little surprise the picture is now creaking for starter jobs/ youth employment. https://t.co/EKpeUyFP5H The UK has gone on a unilateral journey (amongst OECD countries) of decoupling the"
X Link 2026-02-17T14:43Z 18.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@HenryNewman Real UK interest rates averaged 1.59% a year during Einstein's life. Have averaged 1.47% in the [--] years since his death. Not as big a difference as most assume - albeit compounded that generates a significant difference"
X Link 2018-05-30T12:01Z 17.4K followers, [--] engagements
"It does amuse me how economists are to be ignored as were wrong on the euro exponents of project fear until one provides a minority view and then they are providers of truth bullets. David Folkerts-Landau the Deutsche Bank Chief Economist gives some Brexit truth bullets - a thread: 1) there will be a deal as its "blindingly obviously to everyone's advantage" 2) there's no purpose to extending transition as it doesn't solve anything David Folkerts-Landau the Deutsche Bank Chief Economist gives some Brexit truth bullets - a thread: 1) there will be a deal as its "blindingly obviously to"
X Link 2018-10-18T17:19Z 17.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@HenryNewman Im not an emoji expert but I reckon that is not one of strong agreement"
X Link 2018-10-18T18:06Z 17.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@HenryNewman Much obliged. Thatll save me some characters when pointing out confirmation bias in future"
X Link 2018-10-18T20:32Z 17.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@HenryNewman @JohnSpringford The J-CJ speech launching the White Paper in March [----] sort of did that job albeit it did not reference the UK decision explicitly. Certainly felt like the big elephant in the corner of every page in the WP though"
X Link 2019-02-12T10:10Z 17.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@HenryNewman @JohnSpringford I think it was a fairer split than that. 2/5 options were for less Europe"
X Link 2019-02-12T10:12Z 17.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Attention on scale of borrowing - 394bn in FY20/21 -and still 100bn by 2024/25 risks missing the fact that the public sector debt servicing costs have in fact fallen over the course of [----]. The cost of taking on 25bn additional borrowing is half the level it was in March /2"
X Link 2020-11-25T17:07Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements
"The nuance in today's UK public sector data risks getting lost. Whilst 840bn of tax collected over last 12M is all-time nominal high +14% YoY in real terms (adjusted for CPI similar for GDP deflator) it still lags pre CV-19 trend. Not the tax-rich recovery often claimed"
X Link 2022-05-24T07:24Z 18K followers, [--] engagements
"Fourth month in a row of divestment in liquid deposits/savings by UK households during January. 17.5bn so far - slowly eating into the stock that grew by 254bn between March [----] and May [----]. Encouraging"
X Link 2023-03-01T09:49Z 17.4K followers, 11.7K engagements
"Interesting U.K. #inflation signal from one of UKs savviest retailers Next plc. in this mornings FY results. Now guiding to sales price inflation of 3% in H2 having guided to 6% previously. Signs of passthrough of lower commodity shipping costs and softer demand"
X Link 2023-03-29T06:26Z 18.1K followers, 20.9K engagements
"The UK equity market discount has now moved to its widest on record vs Rest of the World after a small reversal in 2021/22. Remarkable to think that prior to the Brexit vote UK equities traded at a valuation premium to the RoW. Higher cost of equity capital for UK plcs is one of the most visible impacts"
X Link 2023-08-10T11:53Z 18.1K followers, 236.5K engagements
"It's unpopular to say when an asset is rallying but same problem with private currencies for centuries - lack of a trusted/transparent guarantor - undermines stability. Ability & incentives to disrupt & destabilise are even higher/more lucrative in digital high frequency realm Bitcoin has been rallying and recorded a new high of $64990 last week https://t.co/jrqqjL926T Bitcoin has been rallying and recorded a new high of $64990 last week https://t.co/jrqqjL926T"
X Link 2024-03-04T13:59Z 18.1K followers, 10.7K engagements
"Is there a tipping point on worker rights A national living wage towards 73% of median earnings as well as reduced flexibilities for employers is not without risk that an employment-rich economy (UK unemployment well below G20 median since 1997) develops a labour demand problem"
X Link 2024-03-19T23:55Z 17.7K followers, [----] engagements
"There is also a $28tn elephant in the room - the US - whose strong economic performance has been parallel to high income inequality/greater private capital risk appetite. Labour-friendly UK thinktanks dismiss these facets of the US economy - but hard to disprove any relevance"
X Link 2024-03-19T23:55Z 17.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Divergence between external MPC members and the commentary from internal members continues. Megan Greene (ext) arguing today that markets should stop comparing UK & US in @FT and In my view rate cuts in the UK should still be a way off as well (1/3) https://www.ft.com/content/13579c61-5e1f-48b5-bb4d-2dc787444fb3 https://www.ft.com/content/13579c61-5e1f-48b5-bb4d-2dc787444fb3"
X Link 2024-04-11T05:25Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The challenge for market participants trying to price June/August/rest of H2 [--] is that internal members (more dovish recent comments) can outvote the generally more hawkish (ex Dhingra) externals. But will they Feels like this schism will need careful messaging on [--] May (2/3)"
X Link 2024-04-11T05:25Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements
"In areas covered in the column - including Germanys fiscal stance defence spending & completing banking/ capital markets union - the backdrop of multilateral tariffs & an uncertain US military counterparty in Eastern Europe may make it easier to make the case for change (4/n)"
X Link 2024-12-02T06:18Z 17.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Turning to the UK the questions presented by Trump [---] are more strategic on regulatory alignment taking advantage of tariff flux to bear down on UK inflation & for the UK opposition parties to see whether a radically smaller state proposal (eg DOGE) has any legs. (5/n)"
X Link 2024-12-02T06:18Z 17.4K followers, [---] engagements
"UK GDP growth revised down to flat in Q3 [----] (prev. +0.1%). How much of this is prescient of greater growth challenges in [----] or simply typical of post-election slowdowns we also saw in [----] [----] and [----] (where govts changed colour after long time in opposition) Just discussed this with @Leanna_Byrne & #r4today. My personal view is GDP growth will hover around flat over Q4 [--] & Q1 [--] but then re-accelerate. The biggest downside risk (ex big external shock) is that the UK employer burden has been layered on too much too fast. The conclusion has to be that the govt messaging over the summer"
X Link 2024-12-23T07:25Z 18.4K followers, 26.7K engagements
"I agree with Catherine that second order effects are less likely in [----] (vs 2022/23) given the materially softer demand backdrop compared to post pandemic. What I struggle with is why voting for a 50bp cut vote when you are still unsure about these second order effects (a clear caveat in the FT comments) - is superior to 25bp each quarter in H1 and signalling a faster pace in H2 [----] if that price data is supportive. Financial conditions will respond to both approaches should they be effectively communicated - but the latter is more coherent. UK inflation less of a threat as corporate"
X Link 2025-02-11T09:15Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@truemagic68 I was hoping your new knee would give you the basis for a comeback Nothing more than gentle ribbing this fine morning. Champions Trophy or Calcutta Cup on at Chez Buik this weekend"
X Link 2025-02-18T08:00Z 15.2K followers, [---] engagements
"UK CPI print out at 0700GMT where it is expected to tick up towards 3% YoY after a reading of 2.5% in December. The markets see the March MPC as something of a non-event so it looks doubtful the data will generate big market moves. But three things to look for: 1) proportion of items in the inflation basket that report accelerating inflation. January and April will see some jumps in the headline inflation rate because of the Energy Price Cap - so breadth of inflation is probably more relevant than headline. 2) any signs of labour intensive sectors pushing through higher prices ahead of Aprils"
X Link 2025-02-19T06:22Z 15.2K followers, 16.1K engagements
"UK inflection higher in inflation rate since Q3 [----] currently matching the wider trend in the G20. The line up of Conservative shadow ministers piling on the government this AM is as unedifying as when Labour shadow ministers were doing the same in 2022/23. Both sides have screwed up energy policy over several decades - and economy pays the price through higher beta in UK prices versus say France with greater nuclear baseload"
X Link 2025-02-19T07:35Z 15.2K followers, 25.3K engagements
"The fastest growing UK pension fund allocates just 1% of AUM to UK-listed equities. The wider pension industry just 3%. The culture of retail investment has evaporated since the heyday of TellSid to now include less than 10% of savers. London valuations are 20% lower than in comparable indices. This is the result of all those trends: https://www.cityam.com/glencore-ftse-100-miner-mulls-ditching-london/ https://www.cityam.com/glencore-ftse-100-miner-mulls-ditching-london/"
X Link 2025-02-19T12:17Z 15.2K followers, 16.9K engagements
"@truemagic68 BTW I don't think you are wrong currently sentiment is very soft. But the factors affecting London's relevance as a capital raising venue have been building for decades"
X Link 2025-02-19T15:11Z 15.2K followers, [---] engagements
"The whole debate over cash ISAs reminds me of the the brilliant Janan Ganesh piece in the FT last month suggesting the UK stop pretending it wants more growth. The discussion about the cash ISA (and last year the Brit ISA) suggests that the unpopular things needed to improve the funding ecosystem for UK growth (early stage funding scale-up funding lower cost of capital for established firms to be acquisitive/ run high levels of R&D) don't survive the political trade offs. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14414801/rachel-reeves-banks-cash-investment-stocks-shares.html"
X Link 2025-02-20T11:19Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Health warning ahead of the UK public finances out shortly at [----]. January is always an important but volatile month for self assessed tax receipts - but additional noise from [--] Jan Barclays outage and government purchase of Annington Homes. Potential for a lot of noise around the consensus estimate - and a quick round trip on Gilt prices/ sterling after the data lands"
X Link 2025-02-21T07:08Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements
"15.5bn public sector finances surplus in January - highest nominal surplus on record but below the 20bn expected by the OBR. A lot of moving parts in the estimate and significant revisions to spending (higher) and receipts (lower). YTD borrowing running at 11.6bn higher than the same time last year. Health warning ahead of the UK public finances out shortly at [----]. January is always an important but volatile month for self assessed tax receipts - but additional noise from [--] Jan Barclays outage and government purchase of Annington Homes. Potential for a lot of noise around Health warning"
X Link 2025-02-21T07:19Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements
"The UK commitment to go to 2.6% of GDP by is largely moving overseas development and intel/security agency monies around - but is set to take total spending to [----] levels. The bigger challenge is the "clear ambition" (PM's words) to get to 3% in the next Parliament. This is by far the harder fiscal challenge and feels like a carrot to dangle in Washington rather than a costed commitment"
X Link 2025-02-25T15:21Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Heading into the City after a good chat with @seanfarrington and #r4today on US bond yields - and read across for UK public finances. Also Unilever Smith & Nephew & Tesla market stories. Tend to agree with Sean - spring showing definite signs of emerging 🌼 🐝"
X Link 2025-02-26T06:52Z 15.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Almost precisely the same happening in the UK. The Bank of England's MPR just three weeks ago assumed a wholesale gas price across [----] (115p/therm) that was 10% higher than this mornings forward curve. Those 3.7% CPI forecasts in Q3 [----] are considerably too rich on a mark-to-market basis. Sometimes you gotta laugh. Updated ECB staff forecasts for inflation due next week will have incorporated something like a 13% rise in energy prices only to see recent falls completely reverse the gains bringing futures about in line with Dec. f'cast assumptions. https://t.co/HPXoDc1Itp Sometimes you gotta"
X Link 2025-02-26T11:40Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements
"A pretty downcast set of UK public finance data for February with YTD borrowing up to 132bn 20bn more than the OBR expected back in October. Softness in capital gains and NI tax receipts and public sector pay inflation the big contributors"
X Link 2025-03-21T07:14Z 18.1K followers, 26.8K engagements
"I would suggest there are three issues here. The first is the Mansion House Accord had no reference to public markets. The cynic (& @HoskingTheTimes comes close to nailing it this AM) may suggest that the fiduciary duty tension with the Accord becomes easier to illustrate for a S&P vs FTSE tracker than it does for private assets. Would I suggest that public markets were the better vehicle (of course I would given my role - which is both vested but also informed) but I think that liquidity governance tax receipts distribution of returns are enhanced if assets are encouraged to have public"
X Link 2025-06-05T07:32Z 17.9K followers, 12.9K engagements
"@TeraPauliina 270% by [----]. 105bn over last [--] months"
X Link 2025-06-11T12:30Z 17.3K followers, [----] engagements
"A clear slowing trend in UK GDP during Q2 with a 0.1% MoM decline in May - led by car retailing & pharma production (clear US tariff headwinds). The UK economy will now struggle to grow at all in the second quarter courtesy of a revision that has doubled the March growth rate (one of the many reasons I hate monthly GDP it is simply too volatile)"
X Link 2025-07-11T06:07Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Slightly better news for the UK public finances as borrowing comes in lower in July than expected at 1.1bn (albeit largely offset by borrowing being revised higher in June). YTD picture running in line with the OBR forecast albeit clear deterioration of total borrowing (158bn 12m rolling) and current budget balance (76bn 12m rolling) since last year's General Election. Higher self employment receipts perhaps indicates that PAYE to self employment shift is behind some of the softness in recent payroll data"
X Link 2025-08-21T06:14Z 17.4K followers, 17.9K engagements
"Given I have been asked numerous times today what I would do to calm Gilt markets there are probably three things that provide the necessary space heading into an inevitably tricky Autumn Budget. Firstly clear co-ordination between the Treasury and BoE on Gilt sales going forward. There is a widespread perception that active QT is an unnecessarily costly & distortive measure. Pare back the active sale component and surprise the market to the downside on the envelope of asset sales in 2025/26. It currently expects 75bn. Go to 50bn by going passive only or go to 25bn and let reinvestment go to"
X Link 2025-09-02T13:47Z 17.4K followers, 128.4K engagements
"This is the key judgement for the BoE's MPC today as well explained by @PhilAldrick - the quantity of Gilt divestment in 2025/26. Markets expecting a cut from 100bn/year to 75bn/year - albeit with maturing Gilts of only 49bn over the period this would entail higher active sales of Gilts below par than in 2024/25. Fiscal headroom (probably) made harder by a slower pace of Gilt divestment arguably financial conditions made harder by a faster pace. #rockhardplace Thursdays Bank of England decision on gilt sales could add another 4bn to Reeves budget hole. Thats equivalent to 1p on corporation"
X Link 2025-09-18T06:39Z 18K followers, 15.7K engagements
"Unfortunately it is not the OBR that is making this assessment. It is the creditors that lend the UK 2.8tn - they now require an interest rate on 10-year debt well above the G7 range. The UK is now paying 50bp more than any other G7 economy to sell its 10Y paper. A government that can show it can live within its means can ditch the OBR & fiscal rules. One that cant cant. The OBRs forecasts are rarely accurate - even the BoE Governor admits it. We cant make long-term policy on short-term guesses. Britain needs a new economic model not one where unelected bodies force cuts on governments"
X Link 2025-09-18T10:47Z 17.6K followers, 142.8K engagements
"BoE votes 7-2 to leave UK interest rates unchanged at 4%. 70bn of Gilt divestment (QT) next year. Most interesting decision is to respond to the steepness of the UK curve and the fiscal losses from long-dated sales by changing the composition of those sales"
X Link 2025-09-18T11:04Z 17.4K followers, 19.4K engagements
"The JLR shutdown is not going to make this rather depressing comparison of UK and Global (ex China) car production any more encouraging. One of the big drags on UK manufacturing production and productivity. UK car production fell in August breaking a two-month growth run according to the latest figures published today [-----] units rolled out of factories in what is traditionally the quietest month of the year with planned summer shutdowns taking place to enable maintenance and https://t.co/eVTZFlM6fI UK car production fell in August breaking a two-month growth run according to the latest"
X Link 2025-09-25T06:44Z 17.4K followers, 11.1K engagements
"Pretty sensible stuff from @MelJStride here. 47bn over five years is rather more credible than the 250bn (largely unspecified savings) being targeted by Reform UK. The challenge for Reform will be whether they can evidence where they can take 5p/1 out of every line item of public spending (ex debt interest). Without a dramatic change to the pensions triple lock NHS funding it remains very hard to see. The Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride will tell the Conservative party conference in Manchester that there is no more pretending we can keep spending money we simply do not have. He told"
X Link 2025-10-06T07:32Z 18.1K followers, 20.1K engagements
"Good. Stamp Duty on property and listed shares is a 18bn/ year headwind to the UK economy. Abolish it and it is the closest thing you get (apart from scrapping the Energy Profits Levy) to a fiscal free lunch. A future @Conservatives government will: CUT your taxes. ABOLISH Stamp Duty. ABOLISH Business Rates for pubs and shops on high streets. And deliver a big bold offer for YOUNGER PEOPLE. All because of the decisions we have set out to live within our means. https://t.co/OUmJaVD0kC A future @Conservatives government will: CUT your taxes. ABOLISH Stamp Duty. ABOLISH Business Rates for pubs"
X Link 2025-10-08T11:23Z 17.8K followers, 39.1K engagements
"One of the more extraordinary aspects of this morning's UK labour market statistics is that the whole "productivity downgrade" story - with 10s of billions of tax incidentals at the Budget - is seriously questioned if you use the HMRC payroll data (and estimate hours worked of the back of this) - rather than rely on the ONS. Indeed on that measure UK productivity has been growing faster than the OBR forecast assumption since late 2023"
X Link 2025-10-14T10:35Z 17.4K followers, 107.1K engagements
"It will be interesting to see whether this is part of a broader reform of UK ISAs. The US have recently moved to only offering tax relief on (the US equivalent of) the Junior ISA only if those monies are invested in the US equity market: https://www.whitehouse.gov/research/2025/08/trump-accounts-give-the-next-generation-a-jump-start-on-saving/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/research/2025/08/trump-accounts-give-the-next-generation-a-jump-start-on-saving/"
X Link 2025-10-15T15:15Z 17.4K followers, 10.4K engagements
"UK 10-year Gilt below 4.5% this AM for the first time since early July. Considerable questionmarks over whether this move will (or should) be captured by the OBR. Spread to other G7 sovereigns still at record levels but UK debt sustainability only part of the story - with stubborn inflation QT and pension fund asset rotation equally as culpable"
X Link 2025-10-17T06:48Z 17.4K followers, 22.8K engagements
"And at a time when market speculation is rife that the Fed will end its QT program it is instructive to compare the BoE divestment pace with that of the Fed and ECB. Synchronised until this year then a divergence. IMHO there is insufficient discussion on whether this is part of the emergent Gilt spread. UK 10-year Gilt below 4.5% this AM for the first time since early July. Considerable questionmarks over whether this move will (or should) be captured by the OBR. Spread to other G7 sovereigns still at record levels but UK debt sustainability only part of the story - with"
X Link 2025-10-17T07:02Z 17.3K followers, 13.9K engagements
"Im not sure Ive agreed with anything more. The barriers we put in place to building are extraordinarily high. Closest thing to an economic silver bullet is tearing them down. Bang on from @matthewsyed. It's too hard and too expensive to build the infrastructure the country needs. The path to prosperity lies through getting Britain building again. https://t.co/Eyf3DBj9eJ Bang on from @matthewsyed. It's too hard and too expensive to build the infrastructure the country needs. The path to prosperity lies through getting Britain building again. https://t.co/Eyf3DBj9eJ"
X Link 2025-10-17T09:57Z 17.3K followers, 29K engagements
"👇I have heard this in almost every investor meeting for three years amongst those who want to inject capital into the UK economy. There is no primary mission of growth whilst energy policy is widely seen as dysfunctional. In my first meeting with Prime Minister Starmer we discussed how the United Kingdom could attract more foreign direct investment from the United States. My response was simple: lower your energy costs. Read my op-ed in the @Telegraph about how the UK can secure affordable In my first meeting with Prime Minister Starmer we discussed how the United Kingdom could attract more"
X Link 2025-10-20T17:34Z 17.4K followers, 45.8K engagements
"What is remarkable about the UKs inability to curb public spending is that it still leaves it with the second lowest Debt/GDP ratio in the G7 and a deficit reduction path for the next few years (at least in the forecast) that is considerably tighter than the G7 average. Weve had some shocking monthly borrowing figures under this govt but this is one of the worst Weve had some shocking monthly borrowing figures under this govt but this is one of the worst"
X Link 2025-10-21T08:37Z 17.4K followers, 48.2K engagements
"The story of UK inflation is an April surge in the index & remaining months in line with price setting in [----] & pre-pandemic. If the Chancellor needs evidence on how her (upcoming) decisions on indexation tax & regulated prices shape space for [----] rate cuts this is the chart"
X Link 2025-10-22T06:33Z 17.5K followers, [----] engagements
"The bull case for the UK economy hinges on whether regulated prices/ on-costs of employment (and the associated pass-through) can be brought back under control next April unlocking the path towards up to 100bp of rate cuts and looser financial conditions. There will be some "easy comps" in Q2 [----] which opens an easing window. Requires politically difficult decisions near-term on tax National Living Wage public sector pay employment rights bill (as well as Brexit frictions energy policy and regulatory frictions for constructors) - but the prize of a consumer economy feeling more confident is"
X Link 2025-10-22T07:00Z 17.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Id make four observations about this headline - which speaks to ISA policy speculation that is clearly dividing opinion heading into the Budget. First and foremost the headline is misleading. There is no mandation proposed here. Forcing and incentivising are very different policy levers. The proposal - as I understand it - is the latter and was in existence in the UK for the first [--] years of the Stocks & Shares ISA - when it was known as the Personal Equity Plan. Second there will be some who will object to that mandation vs conditional distinction as moot/ too hard a nudge. I think at this"
X Link 2025-10-26T05:21Z 17.4K followers, 13.3K engagements
"Mervyn King is right in this interview. Currently using the half term break to re-read Lawsons memoirs. The sense of a clear tax and public spending strategy (but also the recurrent themes almost fifty years on) comes through on almost every page. Will the Chancellor have to raise taxes in this year's budget Former Bank of England governor Lord King explains what could happen and why. https://t.co/lEq3jMI2kD 📺 Sky [---] Virgin [---] Freeview [---] and YouTube https://t.co/F1VrGj3RTB Will the Chancellor have to raise taxes in this year's budget Former Bank of England governor Lord King explains"
X Link 2025-10-26T11:10Z 17.7K followers, 24.7K engagements
"Spot on from @Dannythefink on UK tax. The issue with the idea that the public may be ready to hear some home truths is that the two insurgents in the polling (Reform UK & the Greens) are starting from even more dishonest positions on fiscal policy https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/truth-taxes-rachel-reeves-knnf2cpnv https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/truth-taxes-rachel-reeves-knnf2cpnv"
X Link 2025-10-29T06:15Z 17.4K followers, 11.8K engagements
"An eagle-eyed @thetimes reader I spoke with today congratulated me on my FTSE [-----] call from [--] January: (the UKs headline index is now just 2.5% away). I had to confess the quote was neither a prediction nor the result of the policy catalyst I thought necessary Nice to be remembered though even erroneously #FTSE10000 https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/the-city-is-dying-here-are-four-steps-to-bring-it-back-to-life-lfn6npz8l https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/the-city-is-dying-here-are-four-steps-to-bring-it-back-to-life-lfn6npz8l"
X Link 2025-10-29T17:22Z 17.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@JohnAlty1 @thetimes I approach it from the standpoint of saving UK plc - but fully get that others see it differently. Also noticeable that the US have nationalised their (J)ISA this summer and EU taking steps in that direction"
X Link 2025-10-29T21:55Z 17.4K followers, [--] engagements
"I think this is absolutely bang on the money. Public spending needs almost constant attention to ensure efficiency of allocation and reform of delivery. This is why it took the whole 2010-2015 parliament to unlock 18.6bn/year of savings. Any party going into a [----] election promising more rapid cuts on entirely non-welfare/pension spending without underlying detail is unlikely to be credible. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-saves-186-billion-for-hard-working-taxpayers-in-2014-to-2015"
X Link 2025-10-30T18:42Z 17.5K followers, 33.3K engagements
"@here_there @ChrisGiles_ Thats simply not true. There was huge UK political effort 2010-2014 that reduced spending as share of GDP and remains to this day highly contentious by those who claim it hollowed out state capacity. The problem was that agenda was sidelined by Brexit/ [----] election"
X Link 2025-10-30T19:09Z 17.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@arthistorynews Oil and more favourable demographics. The importance of cutting your cloth accordingly"
X Link 2025-11-03T07:42Z 17.5K followers, [---] engagements
"If Reform UK want to get external expertise into their cabinet can I suggest the energy secretary gig goes here. Well-informed evisceration of current UK energy policy. Despite what politicians would have us believe British energy policy is not cheap not home-grown and not secure. Read my latest analysis here: https://t.co/eOxRK771r4 Sign up to my mailing list here: https://t.co/k7MHXFipE3. #sustainableeconomy https://t.co/1NnkgviHgc Despite what politicians would have us believe British energy policy is not cheap not home-grown and not secure. Read my latest analysis here:"
X Link 2025-11-03T13:03Z 17.5K followers, 28.5K engagements
"A pleasure to join @SallyBundockBBC just now on @BBCNews to discuss the Chancellors speech. We both agreed that this looks set to be an attribution speech - allocating responsibility for the fact that taxes look set to rise again at the Budget. I see that attribution through three lenses: Firstly the fair allocation of blame to her predecessors for the UKs sluggish economy since [----]. That is driving the productivity downgrade (-20bn) and would be unfair to pin that at this Chancellors door. Two decades of terrible energy and planning policy coming home to roost. Secondly the fiscal gap this"
X Link 2025-11-04T05:56Z 17.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I think two new bits of information in that Chancellor speech - first the message that everyone will be asked to contribute to the effort opens the door to broad-based tax increases. Probably sensible given tax rate for those on average incomes is the lowest in [--] years. The second is what looked like confirmation of increasing headroom - again a sensible objective but hard to get the right balance right if it is not to hit consumption growth hard. I would suggest this all points to a further UK interest rate cut this quarter - question is whether it comes on Thursday or next month"
X Link 2025-11-04T08:38Z 18K followers, 65.2K engagements
"If this was the charitable interpretation of the speech here is the bit that really grated for me. Blaming poor productivity only on post GFC spending restraint/austerity - when decisions over energy policy planning migration and financial regulation are far more compelling reasons. Public spending is probably 4% of GDP too high for sustained per capita growth. If you want to grow the public sectors capital allocation then bearing down on current spending is the pivot not tax. I think two new bits of information in that Chancellor speech - first the message that everyone will be asked to"
X Link 2025-11-04T08:59Z 18.1K followers, 48.1K engagements
"@bondysimon Then Farages prediction of a [----] election may well come true"
X Link 2025-11-04T09:21Z 17.5K followers, [----] engagements
"BoE decision day. The market sees a far closer decision than I had expected given stubbornness of inflation expectations and elevated policy uncertainty from the UK Budget. Personal view is that there is insufficient clarity on regulated price setting & structure of potential tax increases to know the trajectory of UK inflation next year. For example last years Budget triggered an upside decoupling to UK inflation from the G20 average of more than 100bp - having been tracking in line last summer. Whilst underlying price drivers (labour market tightness most obviously) have eased I think the"
X Link 2025-11-06T06:29Z 17.5K followers, 27.4K engagements
"One of the things to watch today will be moves in the so-called "moron premium" on UK Gilts. Whilst often used as short hand for the public sector debt outlook - its emergence even at longer Gilt durations has been rather more linked to assymetric UK inflation (mini Budget mid-2023 high CPI prints labour mkt policy since GE 2024) than particular amplifications of UK debt worries. If a rate cut crystallises today and is seen as accommodating above target inflation then expect this spread to widen. BoE decision day. The market sees a far closer decision than I had expected given stubbornness of"
X Link 2025-11-06T07:53Z 17.5K followers, 18.2K engagements
"Everyone should want high-growth companies to raise equity capital in the UK and give access to those returns to UK savers. So this is an important warning: https://news.sky.com/story/tech-giants-warn-reeves-of-ipo-flight-risk-over-budget-13464757 https://news.sky.com/story/tech-giants-warn-reeves-of-ipo-flight-risk-over-budget-13464757"
X Link 2025-11-06T08:49Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Agree. Not passing on any 2% NI cut above the UEL would make the very high withdrawal rate (62%) above 100k even more penal. Risks amplifying one of the worst design feature of the UK tax system. Chancellor @RachelReevesMP would be right to raise Income Tax rate by 2% and reduce (Employee only I hope) National Insurance Contributions by 2%. This shifts the weight of taxation away from work on to other income sources such as rent and pensions. But wrong to not reduce Chancellor @RachelReevesMP would be right to raise Income Tax rate by 2% and reduce (Employee only I hope) National Insurance"
X Link 2025-11-07T07:32Z 17.5K followers, 49.1K engagements
"I was at this speech and I thought Tice spoke well and made a lot of sense. The issue for Brexit proponents within Reform UK is that the valuations malaise - that is at the heart of equity issuance challenges - got one of its biggest catalysts from the Brexit vote. Serious message from @TiceRichard at Bloomberg about the dire state of the financial sector. No growth; chronic debt. We used to have [---] IPOs a year in London. This year so far: [--]. We need less & better regulation in the City; growth capital for entrepreneurs & SMEs; properly https://t.co/ALhRdwj1up Serious message from"
X Link 2025-11-07T10:34Z 17.6K followers, 16.9K engagements
"@DMcWilliams_UK Whatever my disagreement on the fiscal side he spoke a lot of sense on reviving capital raising for UK SMEs. And I was not advocating a return simply that having helped trigger a rise in the cost of capital - the job of providing domestic growth capital becomes harder"
X Link 2025-11-07T15:21Z 17.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@JohnAlty1 @OliverKamm @FT I disagree with you on this issue John"
X Link 2025-11-09T12:05Z 17.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Yes. But there is an argument that the UK has gone too far. What frustrates me with the debate is that there is a bliss point between being entirely agnostic on home bias and the cost of capital for domestic companies. FWIW the optimal home allocation may be low double digit - but it almost certainly isnt low single digit if you look at what our economic peers do"
X Link 2025-11-09T12:25Z 17.6K followers, [---] engagements
"A couple of thoughts on this. First the language of force/mandation is actually erroneous. This is conditional tax relief which existed for many years in the UK with dividend tax credit and the original ISA - the PEP. Similar conditional tax relief exists in Australia/ NZ and has just been introduced in the US savings market. I have actually cooled somewhat on conditional tax relief in ISAs over recent years as ISA S&S holdings already have a strong home bias. The area of clear UK outlier status is pension fund holdings where the UK has gone on a unique journey of eliminating a domestic"
X Link 2025-11-10T06:52Z 17.6K followers, 12.4K engagements
"One of the (many) tricky issues the Chancellor has in framing the upcoming Budget is that economic growth - both UK GDP and GDP per capita - have both turned out stronger than the last OBR EFO (March 2024) released before the general election. Tricky to frame the need for higher tax revenue as the result of unexpected growth headwinds - indeed UK tax revenue variance (from EFO expectations) since April [----] is just -0.8% whereas spending variance has been +4.1%. The recent story is that the UK has a spending problem not a growth problem"
X Link 2025-11-10T09:11Z 17.7K followers, 89K engagements
"Looking at the UK jobs numbers this morning is a concern. I began my career at DWP [--] years ago and I like to think the quality of the advice at that time would conclude that labour market flexibility work incentives & activation are all impaired by the combined burden of higher employer NICs 2x inflation increases to the National Living Wage and an employee rights bill is far too much to absorb in one go - even before you get to the (potential) structural headwinds of AI right now. Madness to be pressing on with the rights Bill and above inflation increases to the NLW at a time when the"
X Link 2025-11-11T08:37Z 17.7K followers, 45.7K engagements
"The nominal yield is rather less relevant to the spread to benchmark (G7) rates. This spread has narrowed since the government has started talking about raising income tax rather than messing around with low yielding/ highly distorting taxes on assets. Something for Labour MPs to ponder if they are sharpening their knives. 10y gilt dipped below 4.4% for first time in [----] The [--] & [--] year gilt - both now been below 4% for a month actually below level when Labour came to power this is filtering through to 2y & 5y fixed mortgage rates driven by higher expectation of rate cuts given weaker jobs"
X Link 2025-11-12T19:34Z 17.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@alexmassie 👏 I have a note out in the morning that is exceptionally rude about them"
X Link 2025-11-12T19:36Z 17.7K followers, [---] engagements
"The nominal yield is rather less relevant than the spread to benchmark (G7) rates. This spread has narrowed since the government has started talking about raising income tax rather than messing around with low yielding/ highly distorting taxes on assets. Something for Labour MPs to ponder if they are sharpening their knives. 10y gilt dipped below 4.4% for first time in [----] The [--] & [--] year gilt - both now been below 4% for a month actually below level when Labour came to power this is filtering through to 2y & 5y fixed mortgage rates driven by higher expectation of rate cuts given weaker jobs"
X Link 2025-11-12T19:44Z 17.7K followers, 34.8K engagements
"On the subject of the Gilt market whilst the DMO was able to get away 4.25bn of index linked Gilts yesterday amidst record demand - the spread over standard Gilts was 25bp higher than an equivalent syndicated offering back in June. Straws in the wind that long term inflation expectations are nudging higher. Record demand in this part of the Gilt market is not a vote of confidence in the macroeconomic outlook. The nominal yield is rather less relevant than the spread to benchmark (G7) rates. This spread has narrowed since the government has started talking about raising income tax rather than"
X Link 2025-11-13T06:35Z 17.9K followers, 21.2K engagements
"@WilliamXnote I think you can argue it both ways. I agree that they risk being costly - but equally they incentivise govt not to fuel inflation (this was the Lawsonian motive for their introduction). I quite like that incentive being there"
X Link 2025-11-13T07:28Z 17.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Slowing trend in UK GDP growth since H1 [----]. Just +0.1% QoQ in Q3 and flat on a per capita basis. GDP deflator at +3.8% YoY undermining relatively strong nominal GDP growth"
X Link 2025-11-13T07:33Z 17.7K followers, 12K engagements
"@REITStrategist Good thread - although the uplift you reference doesnt take into account that Gilts across the regular curve are down 20bp from June. So the inflation differential from that auction is significant"
X Link 2025-11-13T07:45Z 17.7K followers, [--] engagements
"Worth noting that Q3 weakness is probably overstated by the headwind of the recent cyber attacks (most notably to JLR) however weakness in pharma chemicals and construction - as well as Budget uncertainty - mean it is hard to see a material snapback in Q4. Stronger argument is that a less inflationary Budget will encourage a further round of interest rate cuts and encourage a pick up in consumer spending. Slowing trend in UK GDP growth since H1 [----]. Just +0.1% QoQ in Q3 and flat on a per capita basis. GDP deflator at +3.8% YoY undermining relatively strong nominal GDP growth."
X Link 2025-11-13T07:49Z 17.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Ill happily pay more income tax if this is the score every morning I wake up for the next two months. Englands openers Crawley & Duckett walk off at lunch with the score 169/0. Duckett [--] from [--] balls with [--] fours & a six. Crawley [--] from [--] with [--] fours & a six. #bbccricket #Ashes https://t.co/BWmhyizpMN Englands openers Crawley & Duckett walk off at lunch with the score 169/0. Duckett [--] from [--] balls with [--] fours & a six. Crawley [--] from [--] with [--] fours & a six. #bbccricket #Ashes https://t.co/BWmhyizpMN"
X Link 2025-11-14T05:44Z 17.7K followers, 17.1K engagements
"Entirely reasonable for a Chancellor to change tack during a Budget process after seeing the impact analysis. If the emphasis is going to move to lower income tax thresholds rather than higher marginal tax rates then the hope must be because that is seen as less distortionary to the economy - rather than because it is seen as less of an explicit manifesto breach. Alternative explanation - would be easier to address higher marginal withdrawal rates around [------] if thresholds get lowered (enabling a more modest taper rate). So perhaps some interaction here with income tax reform Or it could"
X Link 2025-11-14T06:18Z 17.7K followers, 105.4K engagements
"Sterling down half a cent 10-year Gilt yields up 10bp. Market verdict: chaotic mess strategic pivot Entirely reasonable for a Chancellor to change tack during a Budget process after seeing the impact analysis. If the emphasis is going to move to lower income tax thresholds rather than higher marginal tax rates then the hope must be because that is seen as less distortionary Entirely reasonable for a Chancellor to change tack during a Budget process after seeing the impact analysis. If the emphasis is going to move to lower income tax thresholds rather than higher marginal tax rates then the"
X Link 2025-11-14T08:07Z 17.7K followers, 31.4K engagements
"The bit that still doesn't quite add up is if stronger wage growth is making for a more tax-rich OBR forecast - and one of the measures between forecast [--] and [--] that amplifies this was a tax threshold freeze (with greater "bite") - why wasn't the Chancellor advised by her officials of this likely dynamic before her [--] November press conference Market reaction testing my theory that Reeves/Starmer are more market-friendly than the alternative on Labour benches. Probably still just about holds but being stress tested. Market reaction testing my theory that Reeves/Starmer are more market-friendly"
X Link 2025-11-14T11:14Z 17.8K followers, 16.6K engagements
"@dominicoc Good to see the House of York getting some good PR for a change"
X Link 2025-11-15T10:31Z 17.7K followers, [---] engagements
"No. The vast majority of the move down of Gilt yields in mid October was a synchronous downward move in global bond yields. I prefer "cock-up" over "conspiracy" but this is an interesting take. 👇 (I would add though that the OBR would still be free to add something back onto its yield forecasts if the final package falls well short of what the markets were expecting) I prefer "cock-up" over "conspiracy" but this is an interesting take. 👇 (I would add though that the OBR would still be free to add something back onto its yield forecasts if the final package falls well short of what the"
X Link 2025-11-15T16:47Z 17.9K followers, 14.7K engagements
"Say less do less. One of the more durable routes to stronger economic growth. And why I find myself in strong agreement with Dominic Cummings. All in todays @thetimes column: and a non-paywall version here: https://panmureliberum.com/insights/advice-to-the-uk-government-keep-quiet-and-stop-doing-so-much/ https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/advice-to-the-uk-government-keep-quiet-and-stop-doing-so-much-vk7r5mz2f https://panmureliberum.com/insights/advice-to-the-uk-government-keep-quiet-and-stop-doing-so-much/"
X Link 2025-11-17T06:51Z 17.9K followers, 39.1K engagements
"UK has an inflation problem. Deal with that (I'd strongly favour supply-side liberalisation rather than a tighter fiscal/monetary policy mix) and a lot of the UK's growth issues/ cost-of-capital challenges disappear. Say less do less. One of the more durable routes to stronger economic growth. And why I find myself in strong agreement with Dominic Cummings. All in todays @thetimes column: https://t.co/i0sdacahKy and a non-paywall version here: https://t.co/IbHWNBBUzP Say less do less. One of the more durable routes to stronger economic growth. And why I find myself in strong agreement with"
X Link 2025-11-17T09:20Z 17.7K followers, 14.6K engagements
"UK CPI in October still tracking an annual growth rate comfortably ahead of that consistent with a 2% inflation target. Policy will need to remain restrictive as long as fiscal policymakers are lily-livered on supply-side liberalisation"
X Link 2025-11-19T07:10Z 17.7K followers, 15.9K engagements
"@billwells_1 @asentance @dsmitheconomics I think there is a good debate on whether the MPC should be crushing demand when a lot of this is cost-push inflation. I dont see as both sources of inflation as fungible. Diagnosing why an inflation target is being missed is important to the correct policy response"
X Link 2025-11-19T11:59Z 17.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Day [--] tickets in Perth going cheap Day [--] tickets in Perth going cheap Day [--] tickets in Perth going cheap"
X Link 2025-11-21T08:00Z 17.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The UK has gone on a journey over the last decade from having a minimum wage that is less than the OECD average to the top quartile. All in the absence of material productivity growth. Has resulted in embedding inflation expectations across the Gilt curve. A government serious about getting borrowing costs down would decouple the NLW from 2/3rds of median earnings and index by 2%+productivity growth"
X Link 2025-11-21T11:59Z 18K followers, 53.3K engagements
"I cant think of a former UK minister of the recent vintage with more credibility with financial markets than @DavidGauke. If the leader of the Greens thinks taking a pop at him will translate to a positive endorsement from bond markets then he is in for a painful reckoning. Not just former Conservative Treasury ministers who think that the Greens economic policies are dangerous nonsense. https://t.co/0QWspi9He4 Not just former Conservative Treasury ministers who think that the Greens economic policies are dangerous nonsense. https://t.co/0QWspi9He4"
X Link 2025-11-24T08:50Z 18K followers, 28.6K engagements
"The pick n mix language here from the Chancellor seems very deliberate - and for good reason. Labour backbench MPs carved out the Winter Fuel and welfare reforms - that were slated to save 6.5bn/yr in the Spring Statement. Bond market pricing will be watching for a repeat/ too much backloaded consolidation. Either will add scepticism whether tomorrows EFO projection against the fiscal rules will hold: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/nov/24/rachel-reeves-urges-labour-mps-to-back-her-make-or-break-budget"
X Link 2025-11-25T08:49Z 18K followers, 28.3K engagements
"@Matt247821 @alexwickham If we run a durable balanced budget/primary balance and address the long term fiscal liabilities - very clearly laid out to hit over the next 50Y - then we can ignore the bond market. If policymakers dont then they cede control"
X Link 2025-11-25T10:58Z 17.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@DanielaGabor Outraged pundit here literally wrote a whole column on discouraging the BoE from selling bonds: Still means I think the Greens currently have no credibility on public spending and inflation. https://www.thetimes.com/article/bd3bac08-a3fd-4d4e-af4f-7dd62aaae56ashareToken=81c454b92ecf2db91a9e46cc9ed802e4 https://www.thetimes.com/article/bd3bac08-a3fd-4d4e-af4f-7dd62aaae56ashareToken=81c454b92ecf2db91a9e46cc9ed802e4"
X Link 2025-11-25T14:48Z 18K followers, 10.1K engagements
"@DanielaGabor 👏 Guy who has knowledge in this area. Saving the taxpayer money on the cost of delivering public services must be a bad thing in your world I assume"
X Link 2025-11-25T14:56Z 17.9K followers, [----] engagements
"For context. The UKs minimum wage journey since [----] now makes it a big outlier to the rest of the OECD. BREAKING: Millions of people earning minimum wage will get a pay rise next year the government has announced. Read the full story 🔗 https://t.co/R8wBOwbjIr BREAKING: Millions of people earning minimum wage will get a pay rise next year the government has announced. Read the full story 🔗 https://t.co/R8wBOwbjIr"
X Link 2025-11-25T18:06Z 18K followers, 121.5K engagements
"Whatever one thinks of the Budget and the Chancellors choices today it takes real guts to enter frontline politics today with all the scrutiny of family & constraints on life. The vast majority of people wouldnt do it. Whilst many (myself included) will disagree with some of the policy choices the ChX has made I am yet to meet a cabinet minister who isnt trying to do their best for the country as they see it"
X Link 2025-11-26T06:18Z 18K followers, 41.7K engagements
"Yes. I agree on all three of those points. It is worrying that with the tax rate at a [--] year high and total borrowing at a similar historical high that some think more of the same is required. Moving away from business as usual requires the type of supply side reforms not seen for two generations in my view"
X Link 2025-11-26T06:22Z 17.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@JSMilbank I dont think that - so I wont be bidding for your bridge even though Im sure it is a lovely bridge some say the best bridge"
X Link 2025-11-26T07:29Z 17.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Depending upon your perspective the Budget measures are modestly disinflationary - but still leave the CPI profile higher than in March as passthrough of April's NICs has been more pronounced than expected"
X Link 2025-11-26T12:14Z 18K followers, [----] engagements
"Headroom back to close to the historical average at 22bn. This is one of the ways of escaping the speculative doom loop. It remains to be seen whether the Chancellor will add to this decoupling by moving to one binding forecast a year"
X Link 2025-11-26T12:22Z 18K followers, [----] engagements
"Credit to the Chancellor for announcing just one assessment of the fiscal rules each year. The 6-month cycle of speculation has just been doubled. That is good news. I get the (inevitable) criticism of reduced transparency but that has to be offset by the damage to sentiment from a high-frequency fiscal cycle"
X Link 2025-11-26T13:00Z 17.9K followers, [----] engagements
"It will be interesting to see the impact assessment of the Mansion Tax. Loses the exchequer money over the first three years suggesting a reasonable expectation of a behavioural response as prices adjust. The slab structure also rather suggests that R&M just below each threshold level will be discouraged"
X Link 2025-11-26T13:26Z 17.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Capping the cash ISA at [-----] p.a and stopping people (who want) putting [-----] in a stocks and shares ISA and leaving it as cash is going to be a logistical and compliance nightmare"
X Link 2025-11-26T14:39Z 17.9K followers, 26.8K engagements
"Early days but the 10-year Gilt is trading 10bp lower than the open. Largely a function of the Budget package being less inflationary than had been feared"
X Link 2025-11-26T16:20Z 17.9K followers, [----] engagements
"A pleasure to join @ChristianJMay @realVickyPryce & @MarketBlondes earlier and somewhere in my memory bank I remembered the @nickmacpherson2 speech from more than a decade ago on The Treasury View Is the new Budget a "classic Labour budget" 🧐 @ChristianJMay & @Frencheconomics discuss the new high-tax high-spend approach. French warns the UK tax take reaching a 77-year high is a "dangerous path" risking "extreme distortionary impacts" as businesses look to move https://t.co/mItjYouAEY Is the new Budget a "classic Labour budget" 🧐 @ChristianJMay & @Frencheconomics discuss the new high-tax"
X Link 2025-11-26T17:47Z 17.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The estimated 0.4ppt cut to CPI next year from the #Budget2025 measures is welcome but falls a long way short of the supply side programme needed to lower the UK inflation premium. My thoughts in @thetimes https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/budget-rachel-reeves-t6htskhwc https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/budget-rachel-reeves-t6htskhwc"
X Link 2025-11-26T22:59Z 17.9K followers, 14.1K engagements
"My reaction to the Budget in todays Times: https://panmureliberum.com/insights/cost-of-living-move-is-mere-plaster-on-a-weeping-wound/ The estimated 0.4ppt cut to CPI next year from the #Budget2025 measures is welcome but falls a long way short of the supply side programme needed to lower the UK inflation premium. My thoughts in @thetimes https://t.co/gN3TtSpq16 https://panmureliberum.com/insights/cost-of-living-move-is-mere-plaster-on-a-weeping-wound/ The estimated 0.4ppt cut to CPI next year from the #Budget2025 measures is welcome but falls a long way short of the supply side programme"
X Link 2025-11-27T06:54Z 17.9K followers, 10.6K engagements
"It's kind of wild how much the upgrade in the labour market participation rate has helped the fiscal position in the last two EFOs. Labour market participation of the over 16s is now assumed to be 0.8ppt higher by the end of the Parliament than the OBR assumed this time last year"
X Link 2025-11-27T07:53Z 18K followers, 25K engagements
"@db_fink They are indeed. #flyingblind"
X Link 2025-11-27T09:00Z 17.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Spot on. Can I suggest two others The transition in pension fund demand from long dated debt does make me wonder whether the personal tax treatment of Gilts becomes even more favourable - specifically for income tax and IHT. Second does Mortgage Market Review [--] get launched to try to push longer duration fixed rate mortgages on UK households (to underpin long dated fixed income demand). Again parallels with recent US/Trump push towards 50Y mortgage products"
X Link 2025-11-28T06:17Z 17.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Personally I think there are two parts to this story. The first is the pitch rolling by the ChX on 4th Nov could still have been entirely justified - as these wafer thin levels of headroom vs the fiscal rule(s) needed to be boosted. The problem is the second part - the excuse for the walk back on income tax on 13th Nov being justified on better OBR forecasts. Some will suggest that was a lie I wonder whether it was a legacy line-to-take on the improving forecasts between forecast [--] & [--] that got overplayed. BREAKING The OBR says it informed Rachel Reeves as far back as September 17 that"
X Link 2025-11-28T15:21Z 18K followers, 15.4K engagements
"Fair from Julian. Where I slightly differ on the idea that todays OBR release is a smoking gun is that there was still a productivity downgrade and low single digit billions of headroom would be woefully insufficient to avoid an ongoing speculative doom loop. I think the comms have been spectacularly badly handled - and stretched the credibility of the driving factors (and should have been much clearer on 4/11 that the motivation would be to get more headroom) - but just because forecast [--] had headroom as a black number doesnt mean there wasnt a significant material fiscal gap that needed"
X Link 2025-11-28T17:35Z 18K followers, 12.2K engagements
"Complete nonsense. The national minimum wage was 48% of the median in [----] (in line with the OECD average) & is 66% today (15ppt above the OECD average). Almost exactly the period over which per capita GDP began decoupling from trend/ the US. We are embedding regulated prices in low pay/transfer payments (pensions/ UC) that amplify and embed the biggest failure of all - UK energy policy. We are pricing the economy out of growth. 'How come we never made any economic growth when we were paying folks so much less' Matthew Wright argues that it's 'counterintuitive' to denounce the rise in minimum"
X Link 2025-11-30T10:34Z 18K followers, 95.7K engagements
"Key point from Wilf. This is not a gotcha for either political party - its a failure on the watch of both. Embedding inflationary shocks through widely-used regulated prices (for labour transfer payments key services) has made the energy price ratchet even more pronounced throughout the economy. Great analysis from @Frencheconomics in @thetimes on the budget - identifying higher inflation as the key driver for UK underperformance (over the last [--] years not [--] months) and questioning whether the budget will in fact keep inflation in check. https://t.co/7gkZTnYhCr https://t.co/miJkSGWC4g Great"
X Link 2025-12-01T06:24Z 18K followers, 21.8K engagements
"Todays @thetimes column covers how the UKs ratchet up of industrial energy prices over the last two decades has spread across the economy because of the increased use of regulated prices: with non-paywall version here: https://panmureliberum.com/insights/it-s-westminster-that-has-killed-the-uk-s-economic-growth/ https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/westminster-kill-uk-economic-growth-795r0grhp https://panmureliberum.com/insights/it-s-westminster-that-has-killed-the-uk-s-economic-growth/"
X Link 2025-12-01T07:04Z 18.1K followers, 19.1K engagements
"Another net 4.2bn poured into UK cash ISAs in October - three times the average pace of net deposits over the last decade. Expect November to be another bumper month. The Paradox of Thrift/ Ricardian equivalence/ Risk Aversion - or simply the first sustained period of positive real interest rates in [--] years. pick your Econ [---] theory and reverse it into the data"
X Link 2025-12-01T11:27Z 18K followers, 21.4K engagements
"@rcolvile A welcome development for sure. But that culture needs wholesale not piecemeal adoption"
X Link 2025-12-01T14:59Z 18K followers, [----] engagements
"In a crowded field a wealth tax is a phrase Id like to see sunset. The UK has quite a few wealth taxes - including IHT and CGT. What these genuine economists dont do is put a new tax on wealth in context of existing levies. For example Norways annual wealth tax came after its Inheritance Tax was abolished. If the UK wants a sensible public policy debate then all taxes on wealth should be in scope - and so cover the (probable) merits of moving from an event driven tax (at sale death) to a recurring annual levy. In reality some of Polanskis preferred policies like a wealth tax have the support"
X Link 2025-12-02T08:40Z 18K followers, 43.3K engagements
"The UK borrowed plenty over the period as debt went from 40-85% of GDP - and to 400% of GDP if you include off balance sheet items. The issue appears to be an unwillingness to use that borrowing to prioritise capital spending over current spending. Given the stance of backbench Labour MPs this summer to reverse current spending reforms (WFP 2child PIP) that is a pattern set to continue"
X Link 2025-12-03T06:06Z 18K followers, [---] engagements
"Just a hint in some of the RNS's this morning of UK-focused companies seeing activity recovery from the pre-Budget speculation. Had been widely a tricky November. One of things to try and establish is how much consumer/ housing strength over the coming months may be pensions money taken earlier than initially planned. Pace of accessing tax free lump sum more than doubled over the six months to March [----]. Likely to go higher when data gets released for FY25/26. Potential to provide a upside surprise to hhld spending given lowballed expectations"
X Link 2025-12-08T08:46Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements
"I have some sympathy with Torsten here as the headline used by both BDO - and copied by the Telegraph - is not a true reflection of UK employment as most readers would understand it. Where the "moan" generates less sympathy is looking at a basket of all cyclical economic indicators (including unemployment) the UK has gone from towards the top of the European league table to the bottom in the course of this Parliament. Good grief. 🤔 A Treasury Minister would rather moan about a newspaper headline (which directly quotes from the BDO press release) rather than address the fact that a broad"
X Link 2025-12-08T16:32Z 18K followers, 14.2K engagements
"@truemagic68 Difficult to attract when incentives to own the home market have been stripped away leaving the UK as a clear outlier"
X Link 2025-12-09T06:10Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements
"A soft(er) inflation outlook off the back of a weak November for consumer demand means the UK 10Y Gilt spread over the G7 median is down to its lowest in more than a year at 100bp. The curve remains more focused on the inflation outlook than debt/deficit levels"
X Link 2025-12-09T09:03Z 18.1K followers, 11.7K engagements
"@gud2bheard To a point. But the synchrony of balance sheet accrual/ divestment with Fed/ECB means the case for a big UK-focused move around that period is modest"
X Link 2025-12-09T09:14Z 18K followers, [---] engagements
"Very soft UK GDP numbers for October -0.1% 3m/3m. Likely to be worse for November given the pre-Budget caution on display across the consumer sector. Nails on a rate cut for next week and raises the chances of mutiple cuts in H1 26"
X Link 2025-12-12T07:14Z 18.1K followers, 89.9K engagements
"Has Labour learnt the lessons of the [----] mini-budget My column in todays @thetimes https://www.thetimes.com/article/6187dc2c-ef4d-4384-a737-73030c84fe69shareToken=e17a4b6b2a0bec68fbb3ab6220f160f9 https://www.thetimes.com/article/6187dc2c-ef4d-4384-a737-73030c84fe69shareToken=e17a4b6b2a0bec68fbb3ab6220f160f9"
X Link 2025-12-15T06:07Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements
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