@FishtownCap Avatar @FishtownCap Fishtown Capital

Fishtown Capital posts on X about $aer, $wlfc, in the, $gpn the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks 52.14% finance 31.43% technology brands 22.86% cryptocurrencies 15% countries 2.86% automotive brands 1.43% exchanges 0.71% currencies 0.71% celebrities 0.71% social networks 0.71%

Social topic influence $aer #4, $wlfc #1, in the 8.57%, $gpn #11, business 6.43%, $ftai #7, $amzn #65, ai 6.43%, $unfi 5.71%, $et #24

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @capitalobserver @madisonlackey44 @siyul @adibmoti @ryenotberben @passdiv @stockspy1 @100xcompounding @blondesnmoney @marginofdanger @bluthcapital @pernasresearch @reignots @tintincapital @bobspaysubstack @mrneutralman @globalmess65 @taobanker @philtimyan @aesculapius1898

Top assets mentioned Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER) Global Payments Inc (GPN) Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC Class A Common Stock (FTAI) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Unifi Protocol DAO (UNFI) Energy Transfer, LP. (ET) H&R Block, Inc. (HRB) Cigna Corp (CI) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Fiserv Inc (FISV) Centene Corp (CNC) Enterprise Products Partners, LP. (EPD) Intuit Inc. (INTU) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B) ArchLoot (AL) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Elevance Health Inc (ELV) Alliance Fan Token (ALL) Wat (WAT) Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI) Williams Companies Inc (WMB) Danaos Corporation (DAC) Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$UNH UnitedHealth At $295 it's 16x FY26 estimates of $17.75 & has PBM risk. $CI Cigna also a PBM but trades at 9x and not reliant on government. Was long $CNC $ELV last year. They've all rerated to low/mid teens vs high single digits. Not interested at these prices. @FishtownCap @RyeNotBerben Guessing youre not a buyer of $UNH after the sharp sell-off @FishtownCap @RyeNotBerben Guessing youre not a buyer of $UNH after the sharp sell-off"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $BRKA $BRKB initial takes Insurance underwriting holding up well GEICO still doing very well. Industrial segment led by PCC earnings rebound but theres an insurance payment from a fire in Q2 results [--] months numbers more relevant Pilot is a disaster down 40% YoY. Its a $400m earner after tax they paid $14B for. Otherwise broad strength in service/retail/manufacturing The miss in Other was FX losses adjusting for this and results are mildly above last year. Good results one of the better ones Ive seen at first glance."
X Link 2025-08-02T12:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$UNFI United Foods Weird price action and relatively low volume. It seems to drop like this from time to time. Looking forward to earnings tomorrow. To get in front of the ongoing DMs: No I don't know why $UNFI is down. Maybe people are jumpy before earnings No I have no reason to think they would set up an earnings report before an investor day and wildly disappoint. Yes I thought the guidance was conservative. To get in front of the ongoing DMs: No I don't know why $UNFI is down. Maybe people are jumpy before earnings No I have no reason to think they would set up an earnings report before"
X Link 2025-12-01T18:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$UNFI United Foods looks pretty solid. No surprises like yesterdays price action implied. Reaffirm guidance incl. FCF and thats w/ $300m of CapEx P/FCF of [--] for FY26 and probably 5x for FY27. $105m Y/Y cash flow improvement 25% EBITDA growth Y/Y No ongoing weakness to call out from cyber attack Looks like $UNFI was fine after all $105m Y/Y cash flow improvement 25% EBITDA growth Y/Y No ongoing weakness to call out from cyber attack Looks like $UNFI was fine after all"
X Link 2025-12-02T12:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$UNFI Agreed (def. agree on sandbagged guidance.) Benefits from lower interest rates + likely we'll see a refi of their debt later this year. EV/EBITDA = 5x on YE26 numbers. $UNFI at 15% FCF yield here. Great price for non cyclical name with great management. Guidance sounds heavily sandbagged as well. $UNFI at 15% FCF yield here. Great price for non cyclical name with great management. Guidance sounds heavily sandbagged as well"
X Link 2025-12-03T16:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$GPN The math is that at 6x FCF you can grow EPS 17% just with repurchases. This is the definition of a margin of safety. Business could erode 2% a year and you still return 14-15%. Run the math. If $GPN grows EPS 8% to 10% a year for five years you get a bit over 60% earnings growth. You still need the multiple to drift from 6x to [--] or [--] times just to flirt with a double. That is a lot of execution risk for a business fighting better positioned competitors Run the math. If $GPN grows EPS 8% to 10% a year for five years you get a bit over 60% earnings growth. You still need the multiple to"
X Link 2025-12-05T02:14Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements

"But $XLU utilities trade at a 20x multiple not 6x. I need to make $GPN a much larger position if this is the bear case. At 6x earnings $GPN is priced like nothing good can happen and nothing truly bad will either. That is exactly how utilities trade. Stable serviceable and rarely re rated. If you need multiple expansion to make the thesis work you probably do not want a utility. At 6x earnings $GPN is priced like nothing good can happen and nothing truly bad will either. That is exactly how utilities trade. Stable serviceable and rarely re rated. If you need multiple expansion to make the"
X Link 2025-12-05T17:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$UNFI United Foods Guiding $300M annual FCF + $800m in EBITDA in [----]. [----] EV: 3.4B (if price doesn't move) EV/EBITDA of [--] EPS @ 800m EBITDA - 250m D&A - 75m interest - [--] tax = 400m $7 EPS P/E=5. Nothing crazy returning to industry standard margin [--] year double"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:44Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements

"$UNFI United Foods: "market action" telling me I missed something. Folks complaining no one said "buyback." We back to levels from early this year before the guidance raised aggressively. They're currently paying down $375m of S+475 debt (term loan) and need to refi extend 27/28 debt. They should be fully focused on this for now and shouldn't talk buyback until debt is refinanced. People glossing over massive operational improvements because the financial engineering isn't aggressive enough This is the wrong focus. I don't like when my stocks go down either but come on. A token mention of"
X Link 2025-12-11T11:50Z [----] followers, 12.9K engagements

"$UNFI United Foods They got the message. Repurchases under 3x leverage (90 days away.) Or until the S+475 term loan is paid off (3 quarters away) https://archive.fast-edgar.com/20251217/AO22Q22CU222T2Z2222D224ZMLBJR2X22272/ And now $UNFI is saying "buyback" https://archive.fast-edgar.com/20251217/AO22Q22CU222T2Z2222D224ZMLBJR2X22272/ And now $UNFI is saying "buyback""
X Link 2025-12-17T23:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$UNFI United Foods insider buy. EV/EBITDA of [---] now likely going to 4x (or lower if they repurchase) in [--] years if the price doesn't move versus 10x for most of the industry. 🚨Insider Trade Alert🚨 Director Pappas James C has purchased [-----] shares in $UNFI UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC worth $573000.00 $UNFI current value: $33.27 Market: NYSE full disclosure: https://t.co/1Y5NCJunh2 Company Overview: United Natural Foods Inc. is a leading 🚨Insider Trade Alert🚨 Director Pappas James C has purchased [-----] shares in $UNFI UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC worth $573000.00 $UNFI current value: $33.27"
X Link 2026-01-06T13:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ET Energy Transfer That's a big jump in Adjusted EBITDA from the $16B (or slightly under) from this year especially since they entered into a bunch of longer term agreements this year (which hurt near term numbers.) This is before Warrior/Hugh Brinson comes online and a lot of assets come on in [----]. What's [----] EBITDA if this holds $18.5 These are big numbers. I might buy some calls if the CapEx number scares people off. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008543613584593230 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008543613584593230"
X Link 2026-01-06T14:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@taobanker Why not $GPN over $PYPL"
X Link 2026-01-11T14:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"It's 2.9x levered before the acquisition. They floated 2-9 year debt for the acquisition and look at the rates Bond market does not look concerned. Tax loss selling and frustrated shareholders from [--] years of declines in a hated sector that includes $PYPL and $FISV which dropped 75% last year. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010503122251026936 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010503122251026936"
X Link 2026-01-12T00:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$WLFC Willis Lease Infinite money glitch sell your engines into a JV and have your cash = market cap. Looking at their P&L taking Q3 annualizing normalizing tax rate and one-time expenses I get $5 in EPS more if the maintenance writedowns stop. With the growth they could do $25/share EPS in [----]. @FishtownCap @blondesnmoney @PhilTimyan Agree. $WLFC making moves like $FTAI w/ Blackstone and Liberty. What if they sell their engine portfolio into these entities book the $800M gain and then charge a management fee to manage it Remember the market cap of $WLFC only just crossed $1B. Value vs Poor"
X Link 2026-01-15T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@MadisonLackey44 All depends on what timeframe youre looking at Im [----] and since [----] Yes Since the start of [----] vs $AER $AL and $FTAI its underperformed by a massive amount"
X Link 2026-01-17T18:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$ET Energy Transfer Still think these calls are mispriced. These may win or lose. At $1.50 they're [--] cents in the money. That's a lot of potential upside to capture in a year for [--] cents especially since the winter just changed and natty market might be tighter for a while1. $ET Purchased a slug of Jan2027 $17 calls for $1. They may win they may not but I don't think they're priced correctly. With the current guide they'll pay for $4.5 out of the $5.5 in CapEx right from cash flow. Sentiment could easily shift back to this group in [--] weeks. $ET Purchased a slug of Jan2027 $17 calls for $1."
X Link 2026-01-22T14:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Berkshire Hathaway $BRK BRK.B [--] year return - 0% Performance matters as does Valuation. When you former is iffy and the later is too high youre going to have a bad time. Maybe approaching where they restart buybacks but if underwriting mean reverts it could go lower"
X Link 2026-01-28T05:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$T AT&T more interesting here at $23.5 vs $28 Guide to $2B/quarter repurchase [--] EPS at $2.30 (10x) with double digit growth FCF $18B in [----] $19B+ in [----] and $21B+ in [----]. Always a risk they buy something else but this +5% div looking better than tbills. I like it here $T Earnings: - Revenues of $33.5 billion - Diluted EPS of $0.53 versus $0.56 in the year-ago quarter; adjusted EPS of $0.52 versus $0.43 in the year-ago quarter - Operating income of $5.8 billion; adjusted operating income of $6.1 billion - Net income of $4.2 billion; adjusted https://t.co/iRKwTi4cXb $T Earnings: - Revenues"
X Link 2026-01-28T12:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$AMZN well this sucked. Pulled the plug here at $237. More of a macro call. $MSFT's earnings weren't that bad. I think $AMZN does better but it could get ugly between now and the report. My logic seems sound so this is almost certainly the bottom go ahead and buy. I'm long $AMZN now in AH. Getting serious about OpEx and we may see some serious operating leverage in action. Trainium2 AWS advertising etc. I think there's a lot of upside to their EPS estimates. https://t.co/9U5z4uAC6k I'm long $AMZN now in AH. Getting serious about OpEx and we may see some serious operating leverage in action."
X Link 2026-01-29T16:13Z [----] followers, 14.3K engagements

"@marginofdanger I'm going by what I read in the transcript so no"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$EPD Enterprise and implications for Energy Transfer $ET This is a massive ramp into [----] for EPD and ET may be similar. They have many projects coming online now-1H27. Huge Brinson alone is a $5-600m/year pipe. After [--] it's Desert SW and Dakota North. They'll find other projects but we may see a step down into the $4B growth CapEx range. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018780426920137153 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018780426920137153"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$HRB H&R Block If the narrative is that out of control expenses from the new CEO is the reason the company has fallen from $52 to $37 it's not showing up in the numbers. "Other Wages" down YoY. looks like they're tightening the belt in the home office. Field wages SHOULD be up. Reiterated EBITDA guide which I think they smash. Will report back after the call with a helpful diagram on how I view the AI risk https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018795878014730403 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018795878014730403"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Aesculapius1898 @compound248 @leevalueroach Discuss like an adult open yourself to the possibility that many of us know what TF we're doing. Yes $PYPL the least levered. I think its business is most at risk of disruption and it had a higher far multiple that $FISV and $GPN. I think they all can do OK from this level"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$HRB H&R Block. Short call no change in strategy reiterate guide for FY26. Revenue decent growth YoY for the "off" quarters. Regarding the AI "threat". They mentioned that a large percentage of time spent in tax prep is Data Entry. How does AI ever "solve" this Tax software is already prompt-based and HRB already incorporating AI to "double check" things. We're worried about the customer who is going to [--]. Gather all of their sensitive documentation on their computer. [--]. Upload all their docs containing their SSN and financial info into an LLM. [--]. Hope the LLM asks all the right questions"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ZZZBBB12345 @horse__dragon Something to be said for this. I use the $HRB thick client software I pay $50/year and I'd only consider it or Turbotax. Not worth my time to find someone else. Other companies siphoning off the 1040EZ types is not a big impact to HRB"
X Link 2026-02-04T00:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MadisonLackey44 I don't get it. Time to ignore it and check in on it in [--] days"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$ALL Allstate Geez another $15 EPS quarter for a $200 stock. $34+ EPS this year. Stock still rangebound but this level of earnings is derisking it. 📊 $ALL Q4 EARNINGS -0.02% ✅ Earnings Beat Adj. EPS: $14.31 YoY: 86.57% (from $7.67) ❌ Revenue Miss Sales: $14.57B YoY: 5.92% (from $13.76B) 📊 $ALL Q4 EARNINGS -0.02% ✅ Earnings Beat Adj. EPS: $14.31 YoY: 86.57% (from $7.67) ❌ Revenue Miss Sales: $14.57B YoY: 5.92% (from $13.76B)"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@CapitalObserver $CNC down to $35. it almost looks like a short still"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Back long $AMZN at $200. Will likely sell calls against it tomorrow. Probably will buy $MSFT too. I think this move is overdone $AMZN well this sucked. Pulled the plug here at $237. More of a macro call. $MSFT's earnings weren't that bad. I think $AMZN does better but it could get ugly between now and the report. My logic seems sound so this is almost certainly the bottom go ahead and buy. $AMZN well this sucked. Pulled the plug here at $237. More of a macro call. $MSFT's earnings weren't that bad. I think $AMZN does better but it could get ugly between now and the report. My logic seems"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:31Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements

"@CaptainRoyen You could be right but man its going to look ugly for a while"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@adibmoti @CapitalObserver Im not interested in any of these other than $CI. Theyre not nearly cheap enough for the risk. The all did earnings of at least $x thing this year and then kept walking them down"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@rbptechnology Except there are no real terminal risk concerns with HRB. WU has lost 20% of revenue and 30% of gross profit since [----]. HRB has grown revenue and gross profit 20% since then and grown EPS 150% with buybacks"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$AMZN Amazon At $200 its a forward P/E of 25x. For a company that used to trade at ♾ P/E because it was growing and cementing itself into everything. Its still investing in AWS one of the best businesses on the planet where growth is accelerating from a huge base while simultaneously having a core retail biz that stands to benefit from AI automation etc. But the CapEx is suddenly now bearish Why Wed rather them buy back shares or something Sometimes the market just loses its mind and sees everything as bearish. If CapEx came into at $100B shares would have dropped because out of growth or"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:19Z [----] followers, 40.8K engagements

"@MadisonLackey44 Disgusting price action. No idea where the bottom is but think it's way higher a year from now"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Its amazing. Amazons track record of pioneering new business is unparalleled. But folks have decided $200 billion in CapEx is too much negative FCF matters in the short term (it doesnt) and other of the other brain farts about why this is a bad move. UBS has them doing $14/share EPS in [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571378840207406 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571378840207406"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@PassDiv I think this is a bad way to think about partial ownership in a business. You want them to forgo high profitable reinvestment in the business to buy back stock or pay a dividend Why Where would Amazon be if they did this a decade ago"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@PassDiv Sure. Those are income investors. This is a growth stock"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@PassDiv $NVDA certainly. $META repurchased nothing in Q4 $GOOG was way down. Neither of these two will repurchase much in [----] unless they fund it thru debt issuance"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$WLFC Willis Lease is collaborating with CFM International to launch a program to extend the life of CFM56-5B + CFM56-7B engines by restoring core components instead of fully disassembling engines. Moving to a more service based model. I still have them at $25-30 EPS in FY26"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FISV I think $8 is pretty good for a reset year. Thought they could guide lower than that. [--] P/E probably rally today even with it down pre market $FISV Fiserv hat seine Q4-Zahlen vorgelegt Umsatz von $5284 Mrd. bertrifft die Erwartungen von $49 Mrd. Gewinn je Aktie von $199 bertrifft die Erwartungen von $190 Ausblick FY2026: Organisches Umsatzwachstum zwischen 1-3% Gewinn je Aktie zwischen $800-830 $FISV Fiserv hat seine Q4-Zahlen vorgelegt Umsatz von $5284 Mrd. bertrifft die Erwartungen von $49 Mrd. Gewinn je Aktie von $199 bertrifft die Erwartungen von $190 Ausblick FY2026: Organisches"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Stockspy1 Waters transaction my friend. you'll get shares of $WAT soon"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Alvinsmom42 @Stockspy1 Your BD shares. What brokerage do you use I haven't seen mine yet"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I think there's a technical dump in $WAT shares coming even after falling 13% yesterday. Downgrades across the board today on weak results but still not cheaper than $TMO or competitors. Shares will get distributed to former $BDX shareholders in the next few days and probably get sold regardless. The distributed shares need to get sold by all equal weight funds and any funds with dividend requirement. Not sure who's waiting to buy these shares. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021245290771001467 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021245290771001467"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@LAEQTY @BluthCapital Shannon Engine JV up 84% YoY $FTAI's turning these into data center powerplants now. Agree on management. I see some more tailwinds here and I don't think they'd give that guide without line of sight into a few dollars more"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Geiger_Capital The issue is that they just farm the "work" out to NGO's and it costs 10x as much. I'm not sure how relevant this is with regard to spending anymore"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@risk_chief Unreal isn't it $INTU getting hit worse"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@BubbleBeta @CapitalObserver @retaox and it was -10% [--] weeks ago. Let me know where you predicted the AI panic where anything related to software including $INTU -50% $TEAM -75% $CRM -45% etc"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SayNoToTrading Bro stop using logic youre getting in the way of narrative. I think this is the silliest AI use case https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/2018812327672332521 $HRB H&R Block. Short call no change in strategy reiterate guide for FY26. Revenue decent growth YoY for the "off" quarters. Regarding the AI "threat". They mentioned that a large percentage of time spent in tax prep is Data Entry. How does AI ever "solve" this Tax software https://t.co/NWGUjEe3z2 https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/2018812327672332521 $HRB H&R Block. Short call no change in strategy reiterate guide for FY26."
X Link 2026-02-12T11:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@100xCompounding I dont think this is the issue. Investors are as impatient as ever and FPHs holdings happen to all be in a state thats a fiscal basket case. I think if you replicated this in Florida it would be worth 3x as much today"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@jhurt__ @risk_chief How does the data entry piece go away"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@100xCompounding Look at the valuation difference and the performance between the two. That's my point. That said you can look at $JOE for a "what could go right" story here. languished for a long time and now look at it"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@100xCompounding I think what JOE is doing has worked out pretty well for it. Would I touch at the current valuation No. But the "friendly jurisdiction" that people are migrating to versus the dumpster fire people are leaving matters when you need a 10+ year outlook right"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@MarceloLima Spot on. I don't understand what justification there is with $WMT and $COST near 50x with $AMZN now trading at half that"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@justfactstruth Tell them to buy $WLFC. Easy win for both companies"
X Link 2026-01-30T02:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Last $HRB post I promise. Sitting here pouring over the numbers to decide if I want to override my own rule and add to a position that's gone in reverse. 6m ended Dec24 vs. 6m ended Dec23 Revenue +$10m Opex +$57m Net Loss YoY was unfavorable by $63m (higher tax rate.) After the full year ended Jun25 $HRB was revenue +150m expenses +128m taxes +8m net income +11m. This year 6m ended Dec25 vs. 6m ended Dec24 Rev +30m Opex +$14m Net loss is favorable $7m vs. PY The trend here improved 70m YoY and they did still grow NI last year. I see more tailwinds this year from higher NAC (OBBBA) than last."
X Link 2026-02-04T00:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$HRB H&R Block Putting money where my mouth is long Aug $35 Calls at $2.75. We're back to [----] valuation on vibes. Personal taxes is an weak AI use case. We have cheap SW to do the calcs gathering and inputting the data is the work 5% dividend and buyback 10% of outstanding shares at this valuation. Silly. Last $HRB post I promise. Sitting here pouring over the numbers to decide if I want to override my own rule and add to a position that's gone in reverse. 6m ended Dec24 vs. 6m ended Dec23 Revenue +$10m Opex +$57m Net Loss YoY was unfavorable by $63m (higher tax rate.) After Last $HRB post I"
X Link 2026-02-05T19:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"OOOF $AMZN $AMZN well this sucked. Pulled the plug here at $237. More of a macro call. $MSFT's earnings weren't that bad. I think $AMZN does better but it could get ugly between now and the report. My logic seems sound so this is almost certainly the bottom go ahead and buy. $AMZN well this sucked. Pulled the plug here at $237. More of a macro call. $MSFT's earnings weren't that bad. I think $AMZN does better but it could get ugly between now and the report. My logic seems sound so this is almost certainly the bottom go ahead and buy"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$AER $FTAI $WLFC AerCap indicated they are looking into the datacenter engine power conversion. Wants to make sure it's durable. Would participate directly (doing the conversions) or by selling the engines. Notes they have more engines than anyone in the world. AerCap $AER solid beat at $3.95 which including costs due to Spirit. [----] Core Earnings Guide: We started [----] at "8.50-9.50" which got walked up to $11 last quarter and finished at $11.42. FY26 guide started at $12-13 (+$1.8/share per their slide.) They'll walk this up [--] https://t.co/bbIIDgAjnp AerCap $AER solid beat at $3.95 which"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@siyul Well trust and understanding the business you run. This was a lot of consecutive misses in guidance for $MOH"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@pernasresearch @Reignots Indeed it is. I'm not sure how good it would be the narrative would switch to "China gonna beat us" and everything might plummet"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Reignots @pernasresearch How do you control this without handing the lead to China or someone else Very hard to keep things like this bottled up. Impossible actually"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$WLFC Willis Lease More reasonable valuation now versus $AER a lot more vs. $FTAI. Engines demand still extreme ending the money losing SAF biz using deals with Blackstone and Liberty Mutual $ to pivot to a asset-light service model. I see material upside to $15/share FY26 estimates (and it's less than 11x anyhow) and possible re-rate. A 15x multiple on $20 FY26 EPS = $300 stock. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4859382-willis-lease-finance-shift-to-asset-light-model-should-drive-shares-higher"
X Link 2026-01-14T14:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"OneOK $OKE Why shouldn't this re-rate back to high teen's like the rest of its peer group The peer group $KMI $WMB $TRGP $TRP $ENB is on average above where it was this time last year $OKE still -25%. Still long here"
X Link 2026-01-26T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@CasinoCapital @ReturnsJourney You gents look at $FISV or $GPN"
X Link 2026-02-01T00:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Molina $MOH -30%. This is nasty price action Q4 Loss $5 [----] guide. I wouldn't touch any of these stocks outside $CI. $UNH UnitedHealth At $295 it's 16x FY26 estimates of $17.75 & has PBM risk. $CI Cigna also a PBM but trades at 9x and not reliant on government. Was long $CNC $ELV last year. They've all rerated to low/mid teens vs high single digits. Not interested at these prices. $UNH UnitedHealth At $295 it's 16x FY26 estimates of $17.75 & has PBM risk. $CI Cigna also a PBM but trades at 9x and not reliant on government. Was long $CNC $ELV last year. They've all rerated to low/mid teens vs"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:28Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements

"$ET Energy Transfer reports next week. Crude up 10% and + a major cold snap since ET FY26 guidance on 1/6. There is a country mile in valuation gap between ET (8x) and $EPD (11x) $KMI (13.5x) $WMB (17x) Even $OKE now 11x. AI taking over $ET is investing primarily in natty $ET Purchased a slug of Jan2027 $17 calls for $1. They may win they may not but I don't think they're priced correctly. With the current guide they'll pay for $4.5 out of the $5.5 in CapEx right from cash flow. Sentiment could easily shift back to this group in [--] weeks. $ET Purchased a slug of Jan2027 $17 calls for $1. They"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Willis Lease Finance Launches In-House Engine Module Restoration Capability Willis Module Shop $WLFC $FTAI Willis now doing module restoration $AER looking at engine conversions. Good luck $FTAI at 40x https://finance.yahoo.com/news/willis-lease-finance-corporation-launches-133000678.html Is $FTAI (40x FY26 estimates) about to buy out $WLFC (14x FY26 Estimates about 9x my estimates) They usually trade somewhat together. https://t.co/yLV5NBos5R https://finance.yahoo.com/news/willis-lease-finance-corporation-launches-133000678.html Is $FTAI (40x FY26 estimates) about to buy out $WLFC (14x FY26"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I think software stocks are about to rip. Will delete if wrong. 😀"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Interesting thought exercise (full disclosure: recent $AMZN long.) AMZN averaged 12% last [--] years (12 [--] 12.4%) but this should accelerate. There's a significant lag between spend and revenue hitting. 20% of AMZN net PP&E ($72B of $357) is "construction in progress." Exit rates are higher 17.3% YoY growth in Q3 and 16.3% in retail heavy Q4. Seeing 17-19% numbers for [--] and [--] would not surprise me. Big is how GPT defining maint. capex. If it means replacing chips I'd argue this is a silly #. Even "ancient" A100's are still in use and generating revenue. Most models still work great on them."
X Link 2026-02-15T17:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Interesting thought exercise from @Tintincapital on Amazon $AMZN. AMZN averaged 12% revenue growth last [--] years (12 [--] 12.4%) but this should accelerate. There's a significant lag between spend and revenue hitting. 20% of AMZN net PP&E ($72B of $357) is "construction in progress." Exit rates are higher 17.3% YoY growth in Q3 and 16.3% in retail heavy Q4. Seeing 17-19% numbers for [--] and [--] would not surprise me. Big is how GPT defining maint. capex. If it means replacing chips I'd argue this is a silly #. Even "ancient" A100's are still in use and generating revenue. Most models still work"
X Link 2026-02-15T17:40Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements

"@christankerfund How are you thinking about $NMM vs $DAC / $GSL"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Oilfield_Rando Ben looks like he weighs [---] pounds and hes almost certainly committing voter fraud with his address registered at his parents [--] and over community. So thats great we get to pay his loans"
X Link 2024-06-19T22:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$AER AerCap Q1 EPS $3.48 / Adj $3.68 35% Gain on sale (2.3x book) BV $97.37 (1.07x BV) Didn't see the insurance recoveries I was hoping for. Very solid maybe even a little boring. Still very cheap (along with $AL) at 8x EPS selling assets 2.3x over book"
X Link 2025-04-30T11:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FTAI now up 14% on this news. $AER hasn't moved $WLFC up 1%. Pretty bullish for the sector and could tighten supply even further. $FTAI FTAI Aviation Gains on Engine Conversion Plan for Data Centers (Bloomberg) -- FTAI Aviation shares rose more than 10% on Tuesday after the company started a program to convert CFM56 engines to power new turbines built to provide energy for data centers. Production is https://t.co/1Myni5z9oY $FTAI FTAI Aviation Gains on Engine Conversion Plan for Data Centers (Bloomberg) -- FTAI Aviation shares rose more than 10% on Tuesday after the company started a program"
X Link 2025-12-30T16:58Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements

"Long $WLFC here small 2% position because I already have a ton of $AER. People were crazy about this last year at $200 but now at $140 no one cares about it. $FTAI now up 14% on this news. $AER hasn't moved $WLFC up 1%. Pretty bullish for the sector and could tighten supply even further. $FTAI now up 14% on this news. $AER hasn't moved $WLFC up 1%. Pretty bullish for the sector and could tighten supply even further"
X Link 2026-01-05T15:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ET Purchased a slug of Jan2027 $17 calls for $1. They may win they may not but I don't think they're priced correctly. With the current guide they'll pay for $4.5 out of the $5.5 in CapEx right from cash flow. Sentiment could easily shift back to this group in [--] weeks. $ET Energy Transfer That's a big jump in Adjusted EBITDA from the $16B (or slightly under) from this year especially since they entered into a bunch of longer term agreements this year (which hurt near term numbers.) This is before Warrior/Hugh Brinson comes online and a lot https://t.co/5GhO6FVIFC $ET Energy Transfer That's"
X Link 2026-01-06T21:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$AER AerCap Issuing $900m of [----] debt at 4.125% and $850m [----] at 4.75%. Impressive stuff. https://archive.fast-edgar.com/20260106/AV2ZK222Z222I2Z2222F224ZR3LMZK62BV82/ https://archive.fast-edgar.com/20260106/AV2ZK222Z222I2Z2222F224ZR3LMZK62BV82/"
X Link 2026-01-07T20:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$GPN Global Payments back to flat on a day where CC value chain getting smoked. Short of a market meltdown I think it goes way higher from here. $GPN closed WPAY well ahead of sched. Should force sellside to UW the $20+ of EPS in [----] & byond. the fact it closed [--] days into '26 is very +'ve as they're actually executing (a change from past). Real FCF/shr $13 in '26 $15 in '27 $20+ in '28 6x '26 growing fcf/shr 20% $GPN closed WPAY well ahead of sched. Should force sellside to UW the $20+ of EPS in [----] & byond. the fact it closed [--] days into '26 is very +'ve as they're actually executing (a"
X Link 2026-01-12T16:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Distressed_DIP @iDanielTran EV/EBITDA based on their $1.5 billion guide is 20x. This again is not cheap. It's very expensive. When does growth level off I'm very bullish on the sector but this valuation looks extreme. They're worth more than $AER right now"
X Link 2026-01-15T17:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Anyone have thoughts on why RV maker Thor $THO is at/near a [--] week high $PII down 7% on margin pressures I'd imagine Thor has similar ones. $CWH still struggling. Oversupplied pricey market for RV's"
X Link 2026-01-27T19:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$GPN Greenlight Capital long Global Payments. Similar thesis to me. $V Payments volume grew 8% year-over-year in constant dollars $MA up 11%. I hope we see a $VZ up 10% type day here in a few weeks. https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/2025-24-Greenlight%20Qlet.pdf https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/2025-24-Greenlight%20Qlet.pdf"
X Link 2026-01-30T17:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@compound248 @leevalueroach Exactly. $FISV and $GPN are both cheaper and more durable that Paypal IMO. Who even uses the core Paypal anymore outside Germany where it's apparently popular"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@bobspaysubstack I guess I don't really understand what core $PYPL is needed for. I'm probably not shopping anywhere online I wouldn't trust with a credit card in the first place. You don't even need Paypal on eBay anymore"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Is $FTAI (40x FY26 estimates) about to buy out $WLFC (14x FY26 Estimates about 9x my estimates) They usually trade somewhat together. @justfactstruth Tell them to buy $WLFC. Easy win for both companies. @justfactstruth Tell them to buy $WLFC. Easy win for both companies"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$UGI Corp Down marginally versus prior year despite colder weather. I was expecting stronger after $NJR release. Still very cheap. Might give back some of the run from October. $UGI UGI Reports First Quarter Results https://t.co/qJbRe739Bv $UGI UGI Reports First Quarter Results https://t.co/qJbRe739Bv"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"AerCap $AER solid beat at $3.95 which including costs due to Spirit. [----] Core Earnings Guide: We started [----] at "8.50-9.50" which got walked up to $11 last quarter and finished at $11.42. FY26 guide started at $12-13 (+$1.8/share per their slide.) They'll walk this up [--] cents/quarter so likely $14.5-15 plus another $4+ in gain on sale. $WLFC read-thru Shannon Engine JV up 90% YoY. Forward P/E [---] debt to equity [----] vs. [----] last year. RoE 14% net spread 8%. still cheap https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019753269711487139 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019753269711487139"
X Link 2026-02-06T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@BluthCapital Numbers below. Theyll do $19 in EPS this year. Under promising is part of the strategy when repurchasing shares. He does a nice job every earnings call emphasizing long term value without pumping shares too much. https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/2019753269711487139 AerCap $AER solid beat at $3.95 which including costs due to Spirit. [----] Core Earnings Guide: We started [----] at "8.50-9.50" which got walked up to $11 last quarter and finished at $11.42. FY26 guide started at $12-13 (+$1.8/share per their slide.) They'll walk this up [--] https://t.co/bbIIDgAjnp"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$AMZN This sentiment is a big reason why it sold off. Ignore that its an [--] bagger over [--] years measure from an arbitrary [--] year period. No discussion of biz growth moat or valuation. Just stock flat and capex so sell. @samsolid57 Amazon is the most overrated stock in the market. Ive owned it for seven years. The last [--] years the S&P has clobbered it. They can put up all the great numbers in the world but the stock wont keep up to S&P or QQQ. @samsolid57 Amazon is the most overrated stock in the market. Ive owned it for seven years. The last [--] years the S&P has clobbered it. They can put up"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:19Z [----] followers, 28.3K engagements

"@iBladesi As silly as me owning $ALL under $200 after just earning $35/share least year I suppose"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Right now I'd agree. The narrative is going to be the narrative for a while. $INTU cut in half $CBZ down 70%. I generally pound the table when I see a near term catalyst and right now there really isn't one I'll admit. But I've heard "AI Taxes" for years now. It's just not an AI use case to me. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022311175371821274 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022311175371821274"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

""so far ahead." They started this in [----]. First part approved in late [----] and it was likely slowrolled for most of 2020-2021. The engine conversion business was started what [--] months ago You have $AER with basically unlimited money to invest in this $WLFC plus existing competitors like $HEI and trading at 40x. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022448116008415568 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022448116008415568"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@okieinvestor Not sure but these are nearly all from Bangladesh and India and were going to get to turn off things by country soon"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Theres a significant lag between CapEx spend and revenue generation. Data centers dont build overnight. Im unclear of what maintenance expense would be. Its a low amount for data centers. I think were assigning a narrative to stock price action here. All of a sudden were acting like the folks running Google Amazon and MIcrosoft are idiots. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023072897070203104 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023072897070203104"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Tintincapital Thats still an eye popping CapEx # for the bull case. Extrapolating backwards theyd generate $500B in cumulate FCF 2027-2030 Yeah 25% CAGR (triple from these levels) probably is right"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I switched from $DAC to $GSL and sold that too. Ive done well in both names and trade around them. Im a buyer on sell offs and believe well see some over the next year. Specifically with $DAC its a management credibility issue. Were not interested in new ships only to then buy new ships again. They self deal a lot. Cheap enough it may still do well but its not worth the brain damage. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006574113746268481 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006574113746268481"
X Link 2026-01-01T03:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TarekAntaki Long time since I looked at $HOG. Could work"
X Link 2026-01-01T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ShafronTom Nice WILD that $AL got bought out and $AER still won. Good call - most of my money wound up in $AER so"
X Link 2026-01-02T14:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@crowdturtle So real question not trolling. Why $PBI over $HRB (You could sub a few other names here too.) Similar multiples similar capital return policies (buybacks). HRB growing revenue less levered"
X Link 2026-01-06T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@sloth_cap FY27 Normalized FCF should be around $300m. so P/FCF=6.5x Ok so on next year's #'s. Guided FY27 EBITDA $730m+. At low end [---] - 250m CapEx - 110m Interest - 70m tax = 300m FY28 800m - 250m CapEx - 90m interest - 90m tax = 370m FCF = 5.5x FCF"
X Link 2026-01-06T18:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@LateStgeCapital They've certainly been overearning but I think that's been reflected in the share prices (but maybe not enough) PGR from [---] - [---] Allstate hasn't gone anywhere in a year with $30 in EPS"
X Link 2026-01-13T20:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@blondesnmoney @PhilTimyan wondering if you had any updated thoughts here"
X Link 2026-01-14T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@JerryCap PREACH Also funny is $PYPL has a multiple 2x $GPN. Should be reversed"
X Link 2026-01-16T12:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@siyul @JerryCap Somewhat consistent off all of them but let's say NTM. GPN under 6x FY26 EPS PYPL still 10x. Fully talking my book but I think payment processors [----] is a bank in [----] opportunity but with lower multiples and more firepower for repurchses"
X Link 2026-01-16T13:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@bobspaysubstack @nachunja @navendu_c *put up numbers and repurchase shares hand over first. The P/FCF number on $GPN in particular is so low they can start taking out 3-4% of the shares PER QUARTER"
X Link 2026-01-16T17:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$WLFC Willis Lease I entered the below prompt into ChatGPT and Gemini both answered $30/EPS for [----]. "Take $WLFC Q3 [----] income statement. Annualize the Q3 numbers so we look at a year's worth of data. Assume that we see similar top line growth in [----] that we saw in [----]. Assume $10 million in equipment write down. Assume G&A stays at [----] levels since they're ending the money losing SAF venture had higher than normal legal costs. Assume the tax rate normalizes at 28%. How much EPS do they do in [----] I think G&A could be flat maybe this is too optimistic Thoughts $WLFC Willis Lease Infinite"
X Link 2026-01-17T17:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@RyeNotBerben Been following the aircraft especially engine market lately Aircraft engines are the same supply chain as NG turbines. Huge shortage. $FTAI converting engines into behind-the-meter power plants for data centers now"
X Link 2026-01-17T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Dieselcapital1 @LateStgeCapital It's probably not helpful. 2% yield and 3%/year repurchase level is not super exciting. That said not all that different than $CB and other names"
X Link 2026-01-19T21:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$KHC down 7% on Berkshire $BRK $BRK.B $BRK.A selling after riding it down from $90 to $22. Likely exit in the teens; they own 27.5% of shares. BRK shouldn't buy individual stocks anymore. They're too big investment universe too small too hard to get in/out of positions. $KHC Kraft Heinz Company Berkshire Hathaway Registers Entire Ownership Stake https://t.co/WoEaFR3zgi $KHC Kraft Heinz Company Berkshire Hathaway Registers Entire Ownership Stake https://t.co/WoEaFR3zgi"
X Link 2026-01-21T13:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@SJOldValueGuy At this point I see no signal one way or another in another Berkshire buys or sells. $KHC still leveraged and not cheap enough for me to be interested in. Maybe after they cut the dividend and drop to 6-7x earnings"
X Link 2026-01-22T14:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Neutral_Man Agree. $ET is still trading at a P/FCF of 6.5x. This winter & data centers could drive a re-rating. By YE26 we'll have $5 billion more projects in-service & FY27 guide out. Lower ST rates make co's like this more attractive. Still trades far below peers. Lots to like IMO"
X Link 2026-01-23T19:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@gadawgck $MPLX 2/3rds refining and they've done well"
X Link 2026-01-26T13:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@siyul @CDInewsletter You can throw a bunch of forms at Turbotax or H&R Block software too. If you're at the level of "comfortable uploading sensitive information online" you're already at the DIY Software Capable level. That's not H&R Block's average customer"
X Link 2026-01-26T23:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@RyeNotBerben It wasn't; other healthcare names presented way better opportunities (CNC at $25 MOH under $150.) Not MMQB'ing but CNC and MOH were 6-7x normalized earnings at the lows versus mid-teen's for UNH: and UNH has PBM risk"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@siyul @RyeNotBerben Same person thats far too jumpy and sells too early $CNC still higher now than my sell price"
X Link 2026-01-27T16:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@siyul @RyeNotBerben Still long and strong on $UNFI"
X Link 2026-01-27T16:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@schober222 I got a RitFit M1 and I'm very happy with it. It's so nice and it was cheap I'm not sure how they make money on it. Buy the bench of bumper weights seperately"
X Link 2026-01-27T23:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@CapitalObserver @Globalmess65 The entire sector got massacred today nothing in safe logic be damned"
X Link 2026-01-27T23:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@CapitalObserver @Globalmess65 I worry about the PBM risk in $CI (I'd say it's priced in but nothing seems priced in anymore.) Without that it would be a 10% position. If it gets lower I'll buy back into it"
X Link 2026-01-27T23:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@CapitalObserver @Globalmess65 I don't think the drama is over with PBM's. Again you could value this part of CI's business at [--] and still have a good investment case but sentiment and math are two different things in the market"
X Link 2026-01-27T23:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@MMMTwealth What if we say theres absolutely nothing about this business that deserves a 20x multiple with the headwinds and political pressure and it derates down to 10x like Cigna and lots of others"
X Link 2026-01-28T03:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@DiscountedTr @At50w50882 100% spot on. Poster boy for failing upward. You can add the creepy way he conned Munger into the job. My last write up on BRK and its as constructive as I could be"
X Link 2026-01-28T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I'm long $AMZN now in AH. Getting serious about OpEx and we may see some serious operating leverage in action. Trainium2 AWS advertising etc. I think there's a lot of upside to their EPS estimates"
X Link 2026-01-28T22:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@BadInvestr Still like the company. but the $MSFT results scary me and this market seems to be punishing high multiple stuff"
X Link 2026-01-29T19:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Neutral_Man What kind of psycho braves a Costco to only buy $42 worth of stuff Blocked and reported"
X Link 2026-01-29T21:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Neutral_Man Hahahah Impressive. My wife is a huge Costco fan. Im still not sure its worth it. She yelled at me for being so negative on the Costco experience"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@marginofdanger Growth strategy first. despite trading at 1/3 of asset value. It doesn't seem like there's any near term (2026) plans for capital returns. Why not a $10m/quarter repurchase"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@marginofdanger Good color. Appreciate it"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@JohnDoeKnowsGuy @chesir3cat I get it. I want to sell this thing and come in a week before earnings but Im worried about a $VZ style ripper and I feel like everyones waiting on the same thing"
X Link 2026-01-31T00:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Pembrokestcap @Suicide95518428 I get it. $ET claiming 6x build multiples. But $EPD say $9B FCF and round up to a full $1B in maint. cap and tiny high IRR projects you can repurchase for an immediate 11-12% IRR"
X Link 2026-02-03T13:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Pembrokestcap @Suicide95518428 Could be the case. If $EPD doesn't increase CapEx and we get a $4 billion or under number for $ET next year sector could re-rate higher"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@bobspaysubstack Same Chrome fills in my CC info it can link to CapitalOne and use a virtual card if I'm worried about the site. I just don't see what value add their branded checkout provides"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Ok I'm happy to discuss but we're going to do it like adults and you're going to drop the "I know it better than you" condensation or I can just block you and move on. Cool Yes they're levered 3.5x post acquisition and getting to 3x in [--] quarters or so. They're targeting $5B in FCF by [----] on a $19B market cap. If they hit it this is a triple. Heck if they're at $4B by then it's probably a 2.5x bagger. If their core business erodes this isn't close to the bottom. Place your bets"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@tursillo @blondesnmoney @Intuit @turbotax Let's not let obvious facts get in the way of the narrative"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@MadisonLackey44 All the "competition" is DIY. That's not the profit center"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@a_living_fossil It's been a benign cat environment for P&C. fine. Still fairly incredible results"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@valuedontlie OBBBA is a tailwind. Yes I think it's fully caught up in the AI narrative following INTU to a degree even though their business is very different. August should be plenty of time for the narrative to evaporate"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@BadInvestr Been doing this a while. When one company drops hard on prerty good results the rest usually do too. Amazon hadnt really moved too much from the $MSFT drop so it didnt get priced in"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@mwenn1 @chefxmj @nalumike @NegDiscountRt @existentialcoms @elonmusk Jesus christ no they aren't and no they can't. Learn the difference between Opex and Capex"
X Link 2018-05-11T21:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Iron Man [--] Production issues and competition has pushed Stark Industries to the brink of bankruptcy. Tony Stark despondent and struggling with substance abuse turns to Twitter to wage an epic battle against his critics and the media. Arriving Summer [----] $TSLA"
X Link 2018-05-24T13:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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