@DrJStrategy James E. Thorne
James E. Thorne posts on X about inflation, fed, canada, china the most. They currently have [---------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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Mentions: [--] #
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance #6331 countries stocks cryptocurrencies #2420 currencies technology brands automotive brands us election celebrities travel destinations
Social topic influence inflation #249, fed, canada #1309, china, tariffs, deflation, bitcoin #1037, debt #114, wall street #519, federal reserve
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @cvpayne @foxbusiness @doge @secscottbessent @potus @jlbroomes @realdonaldtrump @_locke_xx @markjcarney @thomas141869982 @unchangeablelo1 @baystreetamber @cnbc @lng_guy @garyhaubold @jasonfurman @carlquintanilla @bnnbloomberg @cbcnews @nvidia
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Dogecoin (DOGE) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Strategy (MSTR) Reserve (RSV)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"These charts show record renewable energy investment in [----] via @wef https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/global-renewable-energy-investment-iea/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/global-renewable-energy-investment-iea/"
X Link 2022-07-10T00:56Z 27.4K followers, [--] engagements
"3Q GDP . thanks goodness for Government Spending Exports ( big positive) and imports ( big negative) "
X Link 2022-10-27T12:35Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements
"The lower USD is a real possibility. Currency and Credit markets are typically more informative than the noisy equity market"
X Link 2022-11-15T11:41Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Response to C-19 was to increase global debt to 256% of GDP (imf). CB response to inflation caused by supply shocks was to initiate the most aggressive monetary tightening in modern history. In the 1970s US debt to Gdp was under 40%. Today aggressive hikes continue. Yikes"
X Link 2022-11-29T13:06Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Household Survey is more informative at turning points. It suggests little to any job growth since March of [----]. Expect the Uber Hawks to continue to demand aggressive rate hikes to continue. The belief that Rates can stop exogenous shocks has gripped Wall St and the Fed"
X Link 2022-12-03T19:23Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements
"As a percentage of GDP Debt Securities and Loans as a percentage @ over 350%fyi in Volcker era is was at 150%. And the Fed says risk are asymmetric. Sure"
X Link 2022-12-07T12:03Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Goodharts Law when everyone uses a variable it significantly loses its predictive value. In todays world the yield curve is used by every pundit and forecaster. In the past equity market typically corrected after inversion. In [----] market corrected 25% before inversion"
X Link 2022-12-11T14:47Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements
"The FOMC continued to raised rates as the PMI showed contraction as [--] month annualized data show inflation below target. And with the most aggressive rate hikes in modern history effects not being felt. Massive policy mistake in the making"
X Link 2023-02-01T19:48Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"CoreLogic Case-Shiller M/M Housing Price Data. MoM average for Nov (2015-2019) 0.2% MoM for Nov [----] -0.6%. MoM price change negative since July. Ave -0.5%. Since July MoM CPI Shelter has ave 0.7%. And Folks say more rate hikes needed. With real time deflation"
X Link 2023-02-23T00:42Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"This feels so much like [----] its not funny In January [----] we got a head fake Core PCE number the MSM Fed and their supporters bought it. the rest is history.deflation and secular stagnation coming our way. We have learned nothing"
X Link 2023-02-24T17:01Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Looks like Mr. Bullard abandon the Taylor Rule and is backed focused on inflation expectations becoming unanchored. They just keep moving the goalposts"
X Link 2023-02-25T04:22Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Shame this data set was discontinued. Would be interesting to see what it looks like today after one of the biggest bond market drawdowns in history. Fred stopped series in April 2022"
X Link 2023-03-14T20:51Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Yes the Price Stability goal is sacrosanct. But the random 2% target is not. Core PCE has average since [----] 3.2%. What is the anomaly The most aggressive rate hike regime in modern history with a disregard for Financial Stability consequences"
X Link 2023-03-30T15:56Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Where are the inflation is permanent pundits today Did they change their narrative hoping no one would notice In this group think instant gratification world patience is non existent With long lags rate hikes are just now kicking in. Add a Bank Crisis and we get deflation"
X Link 2023-04-13T12:06Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"PPI deflation . Lets deconstruct. Look at services . negative So why do we need rate hikes when deflation is upon us"
X Link 2023-04-13T13:16Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Secular stagnation and Deflation awaits. Somehow the thousands of PH.D at the Fed believe inflation is still a problem"
X Link 2023-04-16T12:05Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Export - Import prices (year over year data). Forward looking price data. Peaked last June and falling fast. Global Eco adjusting to shocks. Most aggressive rate hikes in history Deflationary credit event in Banks Just starting to take hold. Deflation on the way"
X Link 2023-04-16T14:05Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Core PCE reached the 2% level in [----]. Over a decade after the inflation scare of the 1980s. Volcker claimed victory over inflation in the summer of [----]. Some much needed context"
X Link 2023-04-27T14:47Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"The fuse was lit with front end loading rates. How quickly this event metastasizes and spreads is the next big question. The Fed and Treasury need to get in front of this crisis and stop reacting. Large regionals showing stress with PACW and WAL stock prices falling significantly. Deposit insurance ceilings need to be raised or eliminated. This steady attack on regional banks is destructive to financial markets and ultimately the economy. Large regionals showing stress with PACW and WAL stock prices falling significantly. Deposit insurance ceilings need to be raised or eliminated. This steady"
X Link 2023-05-03T00:18Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements
"A look at intermediate goods. #PPI Lots of deflation"
X Link 2023-05-11T12:44Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Wheat prices. Negative 23% Year over Year. Deflation its that simple. No straw man needed"
X Link 2023-05-17T02:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Deflation is characterized as the year over year negative change in prices. We are heading into a deflationary episode. When the Fed explicitly pauses watch out"
X Link 2023-05-17T02:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"M2 growth now -4.6%. Fed exhibits a lack of wisdom and objectivity. We heard yesterday Mr. Waller base his whole thesis on upcoming data releases while completely ignoring lags and flaws in Feds backward looking data (ex. real estate prices) M2 growth lowest in data set"
X Link 2023-05-25T10:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Core PCE: So the Fed is going to keep hiking rates because of this monthly print. Think about that for [--] minute"
X Link 2023-05-26T14:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Notice how all the Fed Cheerleaders on Finwit. The ones the continued to push the wages lead prices narrative all of last year. That today are saying todays Core PCE mean more hikes needed.say nothing about the BLS revisions to wage growth in [----] 🦗 #inflation #fed"
X Link 2023-05-26T17:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Diesel prices : Deflation 👇"
X Link 2023-05-31T12:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Elon Musk tears up the decoupling script in China $TSLA Shanghai plant delivered [-----] vehicles in May up 142%. China auto exports in April surged 150%. China is following the Japanese playbook and becoming a dominant force in advanced manufacturing"
X Link 2023-06-05T15:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"CPI BLS summary. Last [--] months annualized 2.4% Food at home [--] month annualized -1.6%. On a [--] month basis lots of deflation. Shelter up 8% 👇"
X Link 2023-06-13T12:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"PPI -0.3% Deflation 👇"
X Link 2023-06-14T12:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why do central bankers focus on the most lagging of indicators Core PCE did not get to the 2% level until late [----]. Fed and Western CB are making the same mistake they always do. Whats waiting for us Just look at China. Secular stagnation and deflation"
X Link 2023-06-16T10:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2.76% Next time the President of the Cleveland Fed says she does not see any progress in inflation can someone please ask her to explain how a decline from over 9% to 2.76% is not progress. Cleveland Fed Trimmed mean CPI 2.76%👇"
X Link 2023-06-16T16:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Cut public spending or boost taxes to help tackle inflation says BIS. The BIS says it out loud. Good for them"
X Link 2023-06-25T13:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"AI extreme levels of debt inflation where the markets are going we cover a lot of ground in this interview 👇"
X Link 2023-06-25T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Deflation slowing consumer demand.Whats is now happening in China should make its way West"
X Link 2023-06-26T10:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Deflation slowing consumer demand.What is now happening in China should make its way West"
X Link 2023-06-26T10:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Canada CPI largest contributor was Mortgage Interest Cost (according to Statistics Canada). Basic logic suggest to bring inflation down BoC should cut interest rates"
X Link 2023-06-27T15:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Big miss on Australia Inflation"
X Link 2023-06-28T01:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Deflation👇"
X Link 2023-06-28T10:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Inflation is proving to be more persistent then expected. We are told this daily by the CBers. Its as if they want us to ignore the data. Sorry NO Canada CPI about to enter the target range of 1-3% for the BoC. Its 2.5% it we ignore the inflation cause by the BoC policy"
X Link 2023-06-28T18:55Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Core PCEwhen did it hit 2% after the 1980s inflation episode Try 1996"
X Link 2023-06-29T09:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Inflationary policies of Central Banks. StatCan in the 2nd paragraph of the front page of recent Inflation report states that the BoC hiking of interest rates are now the largest contributor to inflation. The MSM and Bay St just turn a blind eye. Do they read the report"
X Link 2023-06-29T10:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Climate Change now causes inflation. They just keep moving the goal posts. now we will raise rates until net zero goals are achieved"
X Link 2023-06-29T11:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What happens when Covid-19 stimulus runs out Fed will get its desired extremely tight credit conditions. Then what. [----] going to be a very interesting year"
X Link 2023-06-30T00:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Can we all agree that Core Inflation lags Headline Inflation. Lags on the way up and lags on the way down. Core PCE did not hit 2% until late [----] a decade after Volcker claimed victory over inflation This is Econ [---] stuff"
X Link 2023-06-30T10:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"S&P [---] up over +7% three quarters in a row. And some say we are still in a 🐻 market"
X Link 2023-07-08T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Contraction Territory Canada S&P Global headline for June PMI. A far cry from the BoC narrative proclaiming the economy needs more rate hikes. Recall biggest contributor to inflation last report was Mortgage Interest Payments (Statcan). [----] in June and in May [--] 👇"
X Link 2023-07-04T20:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Wage growth declines and unemployment rates increases. #1 contributor to inflation mortgage interest cost aka Bank of Canada rate hikes. And the calls for more rate hikes continue in Canada. total insanity"
X Link 2023-07-12T23:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If Housing inflation is caused by a lack of Supply. Then the optimal policy to bring inflation down is to cut rates The solution is not crushing Demand. By continuing to raise rates. MP based off the flawed IS-LM model is so wrong. Rate hikes can be inflationary"
X Link 2023-07-08T16:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Wage growth in Service Sector not supporting the narrative that Service Inflation is permanent. Recall inflation is service sector highly dependent on wage growth. Looks like its back to pre-C19 levels. Front line workers is my focus. 👇"
X Link 2023-07-08T17:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@tyillc @cilantrowrice Yes . if inflation is caused by a lack of supply raising rates can lead to supply constraints that may contribute to inflation"
X Link 2023-07-08T19:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Discounts increased at Tsla 👇"
X Link 2023-07-09T21:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So yes . wages lag prices and rapid interest rate hikes can be inflationary. Rate hikes dont solve inflation caused by the twin exogenous shocks they make the inflation worse. Note to the BoC and the FOMC. Fun fact BoJ no rate hikes and inflation is falling"
X Link 2023-07-08T22:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Retail sales ex Autos came in at 1%. The 20year average is 4.70%. And the BoC says the Economy is over heating"
X Link 2023-07-11T03:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Oct was the low following the Election Cycle. Notice the USD peaked just before. Fibonacci levels suggest we get to old highs on S&P all supported by historical Data. Nothing new here no one should be surprised. This time its not different. Old school work"
X Link 2023-07-11T11:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The decline of the USD. Ive herd this so many times. USA is a exporter of oil and natural gas. Mr. Buffet takes control of Cove Point LNG. Mountain Valley pipeline gets permitted. Marcellus and Utica shale about to hit global market. Creates demand for the greenback no"
X Link 2023-07-11T12:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The decline of the USD. Ive herd this so many times. USA is an exporter of oil and natural gas. Mr. Buffet takes control of Cove Point LNG. Mountain Valley pipeline gets permitted. Marcellus and Utica shale about to hit global market. Creates demand for the greenback no"
X Link 2023-07-11T12:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@GregDaco Yup as retail sales ex autos 3m annualized printing 0.4% when average since [----] is 4.58%. And mortgage interest cost aka the BoC rate hikes is the largest contributor to inflation. Even Statics Canada points this fact out on the front page of the last CPI report"
X Link 2023-07-12T23:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Statcan last report stated that Mortgage Interest Cost REMAINED the largest contributor to Y/Y CPI. Excluding Mortgage Interest Cost CPI is 2.5% in the target range for the BoC. Words matter. Statcan used the word REMAINED .its been #1 for some time 🦗 from Bay St"
X Link 2023-07-11T16:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Mortgage Interest Cost Canada. #1 contributor to CPI and pundits want the BoC to hike rates again thus adding to inflation. Lacks Basic common sense. Highest in data set going back to 1970👇"
X Link 2023-07-11T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"When the BoC and Bay St ignore Statcan data one has to wonder. My simple points: no the economy is not overheating and yes BoC policy accounts for 29.9% of headline CPI. No Canada is not a diversified eco like the USA"
X Link 2023-07-12T20:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"MoM Core CPI peaked in Apr of [----]. Well before the Fed started the most aggressive rate hikes in modern history We have yet to feel the full effects of the Fed Rate hikes and QT Long and variable lags in MP still exist. CPI less shelter YoY is 0.8% No more hikes needed"
X Link 2023-07-16T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Mr. Summers has advocated for another 50bps in July With the extreme inversion of the yield curve unless the Fed and the BoC cut deflation will be the next big problem Once again the Official Sector will have grasp defeat from the jaws of victory"
X Link 2023-07-16T20:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Disinflation and or deflation will be proclaimed to be transitory. That will be the next move in the Uber Hawks playbook"
X Link 2023-07-17T10:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"-6.4% PPI in Canada YoY Old rule: PPI leads 2nd Lowest in the data set going back to [----]. GFC was only time lower. Should translate into a significant decline in CPI in Canada. Core CPI vs PPI . PPI leads Core by 6m and CPI by 3M 👇"
X Link 2023-07-18T10:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Deflation on a month over month basis if you ignore the 30.1% of Head Line inflation caused by BoC rate hikes. Notice Core CPI 0% MoM when you look at NSA data"
X Link 2023-07-18T15:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"PPI (Canada) -0.6% MoM expectation was -0.2%. For [--] M PPI -5.5% some might call that deflation. 👇"
X Link 2023-07-18T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Consensus is that August will be weak for the Equity Markets. Last [--] years of data says no. With managers significantly underweight equities August could surprise many. 👇5 years data"
X Link 2023-07-19T23:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Soft landing getting subjective probability of 41%. Frank Knights work Risk Uncertainty and Profit taught me the difference B/T risk and uncertainty. Nonetheless interesting results"
X Link 2023-07-20T00:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes Western Central Banks have made a big policy mistake. Deflation is coming"
X Link 2023-07-21T12:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"There is no free lunch. Extreme levels of debt will eventually matter. Add extreme levels of interest rates as the forcing function. The thesis that rates stay higher for longer defies logic something has to give. Great context 👇"
X Link 2023-07-22T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"On a year over year basis. Gasoline prices -20.7%. Thats deflation. Many keep moving the goalposts. From YoY to MoM to random dates. in Stats101 thats referred to as data mining"
X Link 2023-07-26T15:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"And higher interest rates dont matter. China Debt to GDP 279.7% according to Bloomberg 👇"
X Link 2023-07-26T13:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Rental growth negative YoY.yet CPI records it at 8.3%. 👇"
X Link 2023-07-26T21:26Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@Amies2E Western CB are making the incorrect assumption that they have defeated deflation . BoJ made this mistake many times decades ago . by the end of [----] will be taking about the liquidity trap once again"
X Link 2023-07-26T22:10Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Where I disagree with the Fed is their flawed assumption that Risk is asymmetric. That there is no Risk to Deflation. This is wrong We know how to solve inflation. We do not know how to solve for deflation other than have a pandemic and start a war"
X Link 2023-07-27T09:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"ECB credit survey. Europe is whistling by the grave yard. Watch the ECB continue to hike into a historic credit contraction and recession. Deflation coming to Europe. 👇"
X Link 2023-07-27T10:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Positive Economic Growth that is non inflationary is where we are headed. Feds moral suasion has done real damage. They will rue the day for this mistake. Every macro variable that comes in and is not crashing is interpreted as being inflationary and will force more hikes"
X Link 2023-07-28T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Western Central Bankers have learned nothing from the decades of deflation in Japan. No risks are NOT asymmetric This is a massive incorrect assumption. The CB and the Street have claim victory over deflation prematurely. Just as the BoJ did many times in the 1990s"
X Link 2023-07-28T11:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Approaching $1T. Interest payments of Federal Government Debt. 👇"
X Link 2023-07-30T12:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"-8.2% one month change in Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE. 👇"
X Link 2023-07-29T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The inflation shock is now over"
X Link 2023-07-29T17:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"-1.2% [--] month annualized Medical Care Cost. Deflation in subsets of the price data"
X Link 2023-07-30T13:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"US GDP a look behind the numbers. PCE from [---] to 1.6% Gross private investment [---] from -11.7% Durable goods from [----] to 0.4% (Is the ramp up on auto over) Government expenditures from [--] to 2.6%. Service sector from [---] to 2.1% Soft Landing 👇"
X Link 2023-08-01T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Openings for Government Jobs increase 👇 The composition on the data set is important. Interest rate sensitive private sector contracting public sector expanding. Public Sector crowding out the Private sector is not what a healthy economy does"
X Link 2023-08-01T19:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"so I keep suggesting deflation is the real risk. Why Global overcapacity still exists. Deflation. Demographics Digitalization and excessive levels of debt are deflationary. The Inflation shock caused by [--] exogenous shocks is coming to an end. QED"
X Link 2023-08-02T21:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Fitch's downgrade timing surprises many. Remember the Rolling Stones: 'You can't always get what you want but sometimes you get what you need.' WWII debt levels mirror today's. Some warned earlier on and were ignored"
X Link 2023-08-05T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"💥 Let's focus on the real question at hand: Will extreme Fed tightness lead to a credit crisis and severe deflation It's not about CPI fluctuations but the potential for another inflation spike which is remote. Let's avoid creating unwarranted fear with straw man arguments"
X Link 2023-08-06T16:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Remember pre-Covid US Labor market was structurally tight yet inflation stayed in check. Today with similar levels of continuing jobless claims a new narrative of secular inflation emerges. Let's not forget the past when deflation was the concern. Time for a balanced view"
X Link 2023-08-06T19:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Inflation expectations in Europe continue to fall. The risk is deflation and a credit crisis. Tightening for the second derivative is just bad policy. Central Bankers are focused on the wrong risk. Lots of deflation in the pipeline"
X Link 2023-08-08T09:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China data continues to weaken. Yes they will export deflation"
X Link 2023-08-08T10:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Been warning about deflation for some time. Yes its the real risk. No one should be surprised. The foundations of deflation have only gotten stronger since Covid-19. The fiscal policy sugar high will eventually wear off and the real risk deflation will be upon us"
X Link 2023-08-08T17:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The foundational forces of deflation have strengthened amidst the Covid crisis: demographics debt digitalization and global overcapacity. We will face below trend growth deflation and limited FP efficacy. The real risk lies in deflation not inflation hitting 2%. #deflation"
X Link 2023-08-08T20:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If history is any guide once an economy falls into deflation rate cuts dont work. Lesson from the Japan experience. Its called the liquidity trappushing on a string remember it was all the rage before Covid. CB have just grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. #deflation"
X Link 2023-08-09T10:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Is China exporting deflation South Korea inflation now at 2.3%"
X Link 2023-08-09T12:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Lots of fear being created over the little spike in Natty. below is a long term chart going back to 2009.context in everything. Recall deflation was the concern before C19 and Natty fluctuated. So unless we get another super spike the fear being created is misplaced"
X Link 2023-08-09T17:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We are witnessing the in real time the manifestation of Irving Fisher's The Debt-Deflation Theory of The Great Depression. Falling commercial real estate prices is a classic example of deflation and the implications are massive. Deflation is unfolding before our eyes"
X Link 2023-08-10T02:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Japan's heavy reliance on Chinese imports makes deflation in China a concern Japan feels the impact deeply. In our interconnected world economic ripples spread far and wide. Let's not underestimate the significance of China's deflation for global trade and deflation"
X Link 2023-08-10T11:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China steel exports seen surging to seven-year high as home demand wilts Reuters Global overcapacity a fact that the inflation is permanent crowd ignore. Also add excessive levels of Debt Digitization and Demographics. The foundation of deflation"
X Link 2023-08-10T11:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Irving Fishers Debt-Deflation theory: When excessive debt burdens lead to deflation a dangerous spiral begins. Falling prices trigger a chain reaction crushing asset values reducing spending and intensifying economic downturns. This spiral cannot be stopped with rate cuts"
X Link 2023-08-10T11:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CPI suggests last rate hike of this cycle. (Yes Sufficiently Restrictive) Even Uber Hawks see the light. With full effects of hikes ahead and deflationary pressures 'higher for longer' narrative at risk. Rate cut could come sooner rather than later. #fed #deflation"
X Link 2023-08-10T18:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@KellyCNBC Shelter was added to CPI in [----]. lets take it out and calculate Real FFR over the Decades . now consider the extreme levels of Debt. The risk is not getting back to 2% its a debt/deflation shock as Irving Fisher theory warns"
X Link 2023-08-10T20:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For the record nothing has been solved. CRE and Regional Banks . no cheering about inflation coming down its not the real risk. A significant credit event and leads to a debt/deflation spiral is the real risk and has been for some time. Rate cuts are needed"
X Link 2023-08-10T23:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"-7.7% PPI Intermediate Demand. -0.6% for the month of July. As usual folks freak out on the headline number. Yes deflation. 👇"
X Link 2023-08-11T22:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"-8.5% PPI : Intermediate Demand by Production Flow. Deflation 👇"
X Link 2023-08-11T22:07Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"-17.5% PPI Chemicals Chemicals are the building blocks of Manufacturing. Significant deflation 👇"
X Link 2023-08-11T22:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"-7.6% PPI Industrial Commodities. Thats deflation 👇"
X Link 2023-08-11T22:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"-2.9% PPI Transportation and Warehousing. Lots of deflation in the PPI report is folks would just spend [--] min and look at the underlying data. Lots of deflation in economy 👇"
X Link 2023-08-11T22:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The street was freaked because Portfolio management was up 16.5% because the market is up Looks like tons of deflation in the real economy over shadowed by inflation in the financial asset markets"
X Link 2023-08-11T22:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1.2% CPI less shelter. As the Fed pauses and inflation (their lagging measures decline) as will be the case going into the fall the Real Fed Funds rate dramatically increases. Fyi according to the SEP terminal RFFR is [--] bps. Fed will cut soon"
X Link 2023-08-12T15:26Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"The oil rally is hinging on the streets book transitioning from recession to a soft landing pov forming the foundation of the 'everything' else trade which Ive been call for. Crucially a soft landing is not explosive inflationary growth. A balanced perspective is needed"
X Link 2023-08-13T00:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Debt/Deflation Spiral in China real time. Wait for the its isolated to China calls . just like in [----]. FYI rate cuts dont fix a debt/deflation spiral"
X Link 2023-08-13T14:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Inflation: the rise of the general price level. But wait I just found out we now have the 'super duper core CPI' index to contend with. Because who needs logic when you can have a fancy name Welcome to the post factual world we now all live in"
X Link 2023-08-13T20:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Debt/Deflation Spiral in China.more evidence. Monthly Yuan Loans fall to levels not seen since [----]. Risk to global growth and deflation contagion"
X Link 2023-08-13T21:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Months ago while consensus was focused on inflation risk I suggest the real risk was deflation and a contagion that could start in China. Funny how this happens"
X Link 2023-08-14T11:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China cuts. Russia hikes Fitch warns on Bank credit Downgrades . Debt/Deflation Spiral starting in China . CPI less shelter 1.2% . And everyone is at the Hamptons or Marthas Vineyard. Rate cuts are needed before its too late"
X Link 2023-08-15T12:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"CPI Canada 30.6% is Mortgage Interest Cost (the largest contributor to CPI). comes in at 2.4% without BoC rate hikes. Food was up 7.8% MoM. Yes rate hikes contribute to inflation the data conclusively shows it"
X Link 2023-08-15T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Redbook weekly same store sales data does not support the Government Data released this AM on retail sales. Lots of cross currents in the data"
X Link 2023-08-15T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Hiking rates in response of exogenous supply shocks Not realizing Rate hikes are inflationary The Focus on the labor market with the belief that wages lead CPI Not realizing the debt/deflation spiral is the real risk Suggest a lack of understanding by many CBers"
X Link 2023-08-16T09:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The tail risk that no one expects. The deflationary pressures from China. The extent to how fast it brings inflation in the West down below target is the tail risk the street and CBers are ignoring. As in the late 1940s a deflation shock is in the cards"
X Link 2023-08-16T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1940s Deflation episode after the post WWII spike. [--] years of average inflation of 10% then a deflation event that put the 1930s debt/deflation spiral back on the table. The post WWII road map not the 1970s is what we are following. This time its not different"
X Link 2023-08-16T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"From the guy that pushed the this is the 1970s wages lead CPI Phillips Curve we need 10% unemployment to get inflation down. Wrong His next hold my beer statement. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers Sees 10-Year Yields Averaging 4.75%.Sure"
X Link 2023-08-16T22:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"While the ivory tower of the official sector calls for higher interest rates and more hikes the real-world perspective from the CEO of Home Depot paints a different picture. Let's not forget the real risk lies in a potential debt/deflation spiral"
X Link 2023-08-17T00:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Terminal Real FFR is [--] bps. So for those that keep pushing the narrative that there is going to be a new higher neutral rate what are they assuming 1) PCE is does not get back to 2%. 2) FFR LT projections are changed to be higher then 2.5% June SEP 👇"
X Link 2023-08-17T01:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Philly Fed: Price index remain near long term averages Expectations for growth over the next six months were less widespread future indexes remain positive BUT declining So why do we need more rate hikes Asking for a friend"
X Link 2023-08-17T12:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Chinas property bubble has been popped. Just as it was in Japan in the late 80s. China accounts for 50% of global commodity demand Productivity has turned positive. The inflation shock is over. Many names trading back to very interesting levels"
X Link 2023-08-17T20:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"One month does not make a trend. Note exports from Canada to China have declined by 38% since February of [----]. With the property bubble popping and the potential risk of a debt/deflation spiral and China accounting for 50% of Global Commodity demand interesting times ahead"
X Link 2023-08-17T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Big Elephant in the room. Does the potential of a debt/deflation event starting in China finally get western central bankers off this misguided holy march China credit episode has significant global ramifications. Dont believe the it will be isolated to China"
X Link 2023-08-18T10:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@GaryHaubold misguided actions of CBers to tighten in responce of the twin exog shocks has put a post WWI Fisher debt/deflation crisis on the table. Its been the risk since day one. The global eco is about to cross the Rubicon. My call is the Fed understands the risk and will cut"
X Link 2023-08-18T12:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"History has shown us that after wars & pandemics like WWI misdiagnosed inflation & central bank policies can lead to debt/deflation depression as seen in the 1920s. Global Eco about to cross the Rubicon. Will Jay Powell learn from the past and ensure we don't repeat it today"
X Link 2023-08-18T12:44Z 10.5K followers, [---] engagements
"When I warned about this starting in late [----] about the aggressively hiking rates it was dismissed. We live in a global interconnected extremely levered economy. We are about to cross the Rubicon. An Irving Fisher moment is upon us"
X Link 2023-08-18T12:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Why is no one talking about the largest short position ever in the UST [--] year If it was a stock they would be banging pots and pans 24/7 about how crowded the trade is Wonder how much leverage is in the short the UST [--] year trade ISI chart"
X Link 2023-08-18T21:23Z [----] followers, 70.2K engagements
"CFTC CBT 2-Yr UST Net non-Commercials Future Positions. So yes extreme shorts. Bloomberg Data back to [----]. Most short in data set"
X Link 2023-08-19T01:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"China's shift from manufacturing and property-led growth to a less commodity-intensive service and consumption-led model will accelerate due to the current debt/deflation crisis. China accounts for 50% of global commodity demand expect profound impacts on commodity markets"
X Link 2023-08-19T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As the USA evolved away from a manufacturing economy and the post WWII the infrastructure boom ended. The result was a reduction in the energy intensity of the Economy. The shocks of the 1970s accelerated this process China will follow the same path. A shock is occurring now"
X Link 2023-08-19T16:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China's economic prospects are following the Russia in [----] and Japan in [----] path. China's debt/deflation shock is a stark contrast to its economic boom post-WTO accession. An over-reliance on debt-fueled growth is backfiring a deflationary contagion is metastasizing"
X Link 2023-08-20T19:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"r* requires non-inflationary eco growth. Yet with high debt levels current growth seems more a 'sugar high' from fiscal responses to C19. History (WWI) shows that once this high fades we face a deflationary growth scare. Not exactly the ideal environment for r* to "
X Link 2023-08-20T22:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"High debt levels (100% of GDP) typically lead to lower growth (secular stagnation and deflation) as was the case after the GFC and in r*. Now debt levels are even higher. After WWI and the flu pandemic the US experienced a depression. Hardly an environment for a in r*"
X Link 2023-08-20T22:41Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"German PPI -6% YoY . the Fed will be the last to cut. But because CBers are OK with being late . deflation and secular stagnation returns. The Regional Banking Crisis and the CRE Crisis is still with us. They refuse to learn from history"
X Link 2023-08-21T10:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@petermerelis @GaryHaubold Real FFR is already in restrictive territory. remember those that want more hikes this time next year when deflation is in full bloom . they will plead ignorance as they always do"
X Link 2023-08-21T12:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Everyone seems to forget the pivot to Average Inflation Targeting by the Fed in [----] that was the consequence of the inability to achieve the 2% target after the GFC. Fed right now has the ability to ignore the hard 2% target"
X Link 2023-08-21T12:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"China's debt issues have been a concern for years with experts warning of a potential debt/deflation spiral. Charlene Chu Mr Pettis Kyle Bass and Paul Krugman have all written extensively on the subject"
X Link 2023-08-23T01:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"-0.9% Core retail sales Canada. Recall BoC and Bay St logic for rate hikes was an overheated economy. Retail sales account for 57% of GDP. We live in a post factual world"
X Link 2023-08-23T12:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"James Bullard: The poster boy for economic illiteracy. His advocacy for aggressive rate hikes in the face of exogenous supply shocks is a testament to his lack of understanding of basic economics. It's time to put him on mute. #Fed"
X Link 2023-08-24T12:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1.7% .what if there was a consistent measure of inflation. What if the Fed measured inflation the same way as the ECB That would be common sense wouldnt it. Harmonized CPI in the USA 👇"
X Link 2023-08-24T17:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Fed's aggressive rate hikes may have triggered Chinas debt/deflation crisis. Forcing China to sell UST. Moreover China's demand for commodities accounts for 50% of global demand a contagion cannot be ruled out with deflation spreading westward"
X Link 2023-08-24T19:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"China property sector: What was once a tailwind has now turned into a headwind for growth"
X Link 2023-08-25T10:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Folks are assuming that last year Jackson Hole speech by Chair Powell was the norm and are expecting a negative reaction to risk assets. oh contraire"
X Link 2023-08-25T10:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Inflation peaked in July of [----]. Inflation was caused by twin exogenous supply shocks and a wartime like fiscal policy responce. Aggressive hikes added to inflation. History suggest a potential debt/deflation echo is a real possibility. Will this time be different"
X Link 2023-08-25T10:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In late [----] once the sugar high of the war-like fiscal policy wears off and the full effect of the misguided central banks' tightening policy is felt we can't rule out the potential of a debt/deflation recession. Will policy makers and their supporters claim Ignorance"
X Link 2023-08-25T13:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Its folly to assume that what we hear on companies quarterly earnings calls will not eventually reach the Ivory Tower. All Fed officials have to do is talk to someone in the real world.Looks like Mr Harker did just that. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker says the Fed needs to "keep the pressure on" to get inflation down to its target https://t.co/9EHngeJqis https://t.co/kLNzrHSsYd Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker says the Fed needs to "keep the pressure on" to get inflation down to its target https://t.co/9EHngeJqis"
X Link 2023-08-25T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I hear Fed officials proclaim that there is no risk of an Irving Fisher type debt/deflation spiral and that the real risk in inflation. Such bravado suggests that there were no lessons learned from the GFC. Very concerning"
X Link 2023-08-25T18:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Mr Goolsbee's interview while it was very good I respectfully disagree with his view on the consumer. Check out Walmart's call for a different perspective. Also I'm concerned about the lack of concern about over tightening the lessons about debt/deflation are being ignored"
X Link 2023-08-25T20:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@petermerelis . in the mind of the Ivory Tower economist the Phillips Curve lives . even if the data suggests otherwise"
X Link 2023-08-26T11:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Jolts . Private Sector: company size 250-999 employees. Below [----] levels So will the goalposts be moved again (To be clear I dont subscribe to the Phillips Curve mania that exist in the Ivory Towers)"
X Link 2023-08-29T14:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Record Shorts keep getting bigger Short the 2yr UST gets even more crowded. Talk about groupthink 👇"
X Link 2023-08-29T14:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@jlfuenteoc1 30% of CPI in Canada is a direct effect of Bank of Canada rate hikes. Stats Canada . Yes interest rates are prices. the price of capital. CBers need to stop using the IS-LM model. To use it as the foundation of policy in [----] is just wrong"
X Link 2023-08-31T12:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A natural normal and healthy pullback to Fib levels. As usual folks that invest off what is said on MSM sold the head fake. LOL New highs by the end of the year. My target of S&P [---] [----] set in the fall of [----] will be a touch low so be it"
X Link 2023-08-31T13:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3m annualized Core PCE back to levels where Bernanke started to CUT rates in [----]. FYI back in [----] Fed was late with cuts the result was the GFC. Many still want hikes. Thats just insane"
X Link 2023-08-31T14:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Cheerleaders of the Fed are at it again warning of another inflation spike. They fail to produce a cogent thesis on how this will happen. Core PCE cont to decline before the full effects of rate hikes have been felt. MP is a blunt instrument not a fine-tuning instrument"
X Link 2023-08-31T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The global economy is not entering a new high inflation era. Deflationary forces such as debt/gdp demographics and digitization are stronger than ever. These forces will continue to keep inflation low in the foreseeable future. #deflation #inflation #Fed"
X Link 2023-08-31T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2.37% Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE . And folks want more rate hikes. We live in a post factual world. #deflation #inflation"
X Link 2023-08-31T20:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Bank of Canada continues to raise rates as the economy contracted. Bay St economist until very recently cheered them on. Been suggesting that BoC making a catastrophic mistake my recent article in the Globe and Mail"
X Link 2023-09-01T12:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Goldman says more rate hikes in Canada. I disagree More hikes as CBers navigate by the stars on a cloudy night. Fact since 1990s BoC has never raised rates when GDP negative. Another example of Wall St and Bay St enabling misguided CB policies"
X Link 2023-09-02T13:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So Goldman says the Fed is done hiking. But up here in the Great White North with negative GDP a non-diversified economy and personal debt to disposable income at close to 190% the highest in the G7 they say more hikes Love the consistency"
X Link 2023-09-02T15:53Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements
"Note to Goldman. 30% of CPI up here is caused by Bank of Canada hikes. Yes interest rate hikes are inflationary and according to StatCan they are the largest contributor to CPI. more rate hikes are inflationary"
X Link 2023-09-02T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As in the GFC economies are just stopping. Rate hikes in response to exogenous shocks is bad MP. We could be headed for a debt/deflation spiral As Queen Elizabeth II said "Why did no one see it coming" Can CBers learn from their mistakes Best prepare for the future"
X Link 2023-09-03T12:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"GDI -3.9% has been negative since 3Q [----] indicating that the economy is slowing down. This is a better measure of turning points in the economy than GDP which is a lagging indicator. The Bank of Canada and Bay Street should not be surprised by the negative GDP print in Q2"
X Link 2023-09-04T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"China is expanding its battery manufacturing capacity which will create excess supply and deflation. This is the classic mercantile model used throughout time. We have not entered into a new era of excess demand. Don't fall for that straw man"
X Link 2023-09-04T18:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"GDI in Canada over last year stands at -3.9%. GDP in Q2 just went negative. Retail Sales ex autos -1.9%. 30% of CPI is directly attributable to BoC hikes. It is also the largest contributor. And Bay St BoC are surprised. Wall St ex. Goldman say more hikes on the way"
X Link 2023-09-04T20:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Does monetary policy have long-run effects A new #EconLetter from @FRBSF finds that monetary policy shocks rates have persistent effects on output and inflation suggesting that monetary policy can have long-run effects on the economy"
X Link 2023-09-06T09:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The BoC more hawkish then Volcker. To ignore negative GDP growth -3.9% RGDI declining retail sales 30% of CPI is caused by BoC hikes and Canada's status as the country with the highest personal debt levels in the G7 is reckless is fraught with danger a Policy mistake"
X Link 2023-09-06T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The BoC tightening is a reckless gamble that will hurt the economy and make it harder for Canadians to make ends meet. The BoC is ignoring the fact that inflation is largely due to supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine. My interview 👇"
X Link 2023-09-07T00:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Recent Fed paper: The recent surge in inflation is largely due to a one-time increase in the frequency of price increases rather than a sustained increase in the underlying rate of inflation. Suggesting that the recent surge in inflation is a temporary phenomenon"
X Link 2023-09-09T11:57Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Additionally the frequency of price decreases and the absolute value of price changes have changed little over the pandemic and post-pandemic periods. This suggests that yes the recent inflation episode was in fact transitory. Imagine that https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/price-setting-during-the-covid-era-20230829.html https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/price-setting-during-the-covid-era-20230829.html"
X Link 2023-09-09T12:04Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"The BoC is risking a recession by raising rates too far too fast. In Ontario Canada's largest economy unemployment has jumped to 5.9% higher than pre-COVID levels. Yet the BoC overnight rate is [---] bps higher than in [----] when there were no inflation concerns"
X Link 2023-09-10T11:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The BoC's concerns that wages are causing inflation are misplaced. Canada is headed for a Hard Landing a debt/deflation spiral cannot be ruled out. Wage growth is not keeping pace with inflation and Canada has the highest personal debt-to-disposable income ratio in the G7"
X Link 2023-09-10T11:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I continually hear the Fed or the Bank of Canada had no choice WRONG: Yes they did Rate hikes dont solve effects of exogenous supply shocks. In fact rate hikes are themselves inflationary and slow the economic adjustment process needed to deal with the exogenous shocks"
X Link 2023-09-11T12:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3 month annualized Core CPI 2.39%. [--] year average 2.35%. The inflation fears are misplaced"
X Link 2023-09-13T17:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3 month annualized Core CPI 2.39%. [--] year average 2.35%. inflation fears are misplaced"
X Link 2023-09-13T18:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Comment on ECB hike. [----] all over again. For those that believe interest rate differentials drive currency crosses . take a look at the response to the ECB hike"
X Link 2023-09-14T12:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Currency Market to ECB . rate hike was a policy mistake. Looks like currency market has had enough"
X Link 2023-09-14T14:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What happens when the Deficit which is close to 6% of GDP goes back to its long term average of 2%"
X Link 2023-09-15T10:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In Canada CPI growth declined on a monthly basis for [---] to [---]. Interest Payments on mortgages now accounts for almost 31% of CPI . 30.9%. Excluding gasoline. YoY increase in CPI 4.1% same as July. This August is comp against a -0.3% August 2022"
X Link 2023-09-19T13:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Canada: YoY CPI flat from July to August when excluding gasoline. Mortgage interest cost now 30.9% of CPI. Excluding MIC monthly CPI comes in at [----]. Statistics Canada points out rent increases due to supply issues in housing market. 👇"
X Link 2023-09-19T13:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Core CPI growth MoM in Canada declines from 0.5% in July to 0.2% in August. Exclude Mortgage Interest Cost Bank of Canada hikes that account for 30.9% of CPI Core is 0.138%"
X Link 2023-09-19T13:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@baystreetamber Core month over month . declines from 0.5% to 0.2%. Excluding only energy CPI declines from 0.5% to 0.1%. On a yearly comp . August of [----] falls off which was -0.3%. Interest on Mortgages. almost 31% of CPI"
X Link 2023-09-19T13:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What if we exclude BoC rate hikes Basic math : Headline CPI 4% YoY. 30.9% caused by BoC hikes. Excluding BoC inflationary rate hikes . CPI 2.76% YoY. BoC target range 1-3% CPI"
X Link 2023-09-19T17:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Now I read that a UAW strike and Opec+ contracting supply is proof that we have entered a new inflationary era where all the excess capacity in the global economy had been eliminated. Coming from the Phillips Curve crew. Cant make this stuff up"
X Link 2023-09-20T16:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Powell Should have said: [--]. We are done hiking we are going to sit and watch the data come in. [--]. Our base case is a soft-landing. [--]. But if the data surprises to the upside or downside we are willing to take action to ensure price stability and economic growth"
X Link 2023-09-20T21:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Gasoline prices pulling back"
X Link 2023-09-21T00:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Natural Gas prices a [----] levels. We dont hear any mention from those stoking the flames about permanent inflation. Natty 👇"
X Link 2023-09-21T00:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Dot Plots as policy really Below Fed SEP from September [----]. FFR in [----] forecasted to be 1%. Folks think somehow the Fed has figured out how to forecast the future. Do you really think they have a handle on this Sept [--] SEP👇"
X Link 2023-09-21T10:45Z 10.2K followers, [---] engagements
"FOMC has been wrong but the street never learns. the consensus buys the Feds narrative hook line and sinker. Below is the WIRP function market expectations of hikes and cuts lets look at what it said in September [----]. The upshot: consensus blindly follows the Fed. 👇"
X Link 2023-09-21T13:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Philly Fed Survey: [-----] Please send to Fed officials and Mr Bullard. One of the most important manufacturing regions in the USA is contracting. False narratives put forth by senior Fed officials and former officials not supported by facts. Shame"
X Link 2023-09-21T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Conference Board Leading Indicators. Mr Bullard and the Fed tells us the economy is strong and reaccelerating. facts say no way. And Mr Bullard wants more rate hikes"
X Link 2023-09-21T14:20Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Lots of excess capacity in Germany. S&P Global PMI for Germany a major global exporter suggest contraction and spare capacity in Europes largest economy. Lets add in the contraction in China. And yet we are continually told that the world has entered a new inflationary era"
X Link 2023-09-22T10:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Europe is in recession. China is beginning a major adjustment period that could last decades. Yet we are told that there is no excess capacity in the global economy. Sorry global economy has lots of excess capacity which is deflationary"
X Link 2023-09-22T10:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"France big contraction in the private sector S&P PMI shows significant slowing in Europe. The private sector is contracting in the West. The long term ramifications on growth are significant. The public sector crowding out the private sector reduces LT growth"
X Link 2023-09-22T11:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In France both Manufacturing and Service sectors contracting. And the ECB hikes rates Just as they did in [----]. Secular stagnation (and eventually deflation) coming back with a vengeance Get ready for CBers talking about pushing on a string in 2024"
X Link 2023-09-22T11:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So many concluded that the BoJ was going to buy into the hype that is time its different and deflation has been defeated. FYI Japan has been in a deflationary episode since the 1990s. They have claimed victory often only to be proven wrong. Deflation has not been defeated"
X Link 2023-09-22T11:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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