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@alexburns "It matters to defence contractors; research labs; the defence industrial base; and global macro / event arb / merger arb / volatility style hedge funds"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-07T08:54Z 2957 followers, XX engagements

"Ive experienced anima possession. Heres a ChatGPT graphic informed by an Alchemical-Tantric psychology oriented prompt. Its very hard to de-fuse / de-identify with (ACT DBT Schema Therapy Mentalisation-Based Treatment). James Hillman is helpful"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-07T17:43Z 2956 followers, XXX engagements

"One catalyst event was reading Boris Mouravieffs Gnosis trilogy - a personal synthesis of Girdjieff Work & Eastern Orthodox Christian practices of the esoteric Way of the Knight & His Lover"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-07T17:48Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"Seen today in Dymocks Melbourne CBD store. An edited collection that gives a heterodox critique of the AUKUS security compact"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-08T02:21Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"Interesting use of ChatGPT & inclusion / selection criteria or information weights for AGI report automation / generation"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-08T02:26Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"Adverse life arisings this year mean that I am missing @Metallicas gig in Marvel Stadium in Melbourne tonight. If you are going: enjoy. They are a resonant echo of why I missed 1998s tour. I thought about it today outside a store in the rain"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-08T07:13Z 2957 followers, XXX engagements

"@IronMaiden @HowardxBloom I commend to you Blooms music industry memoir. Tonights Metallica gig draws largely on the Black album (1991) & earlier - I last saw them live on their 1993 tour - a good XX years ago when I was XX. I am now XX in a cliche midlife decline"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-08T07:43Z 2957 followers, XX engagements

"@IronMaiden @HowardxBloom I wont be experiencing this. It will be just another absence or gap. I will have instead a quiet night. I have reflected on how I have gone out of my way (in past work contexts) to help others - only to then be betrayed. In a neoliberal system its often just selfish greed"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-08T07:49Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"@IronMaiden @HowardxBloom Bloom offers us a way out of this. I experienced it when @U2 toured their landmark Joshua Tree album. What Bloom offers us is scientifically observable verifiable transcendent life experiences. Take them. Dont make my life mistakes & have my regrets"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-08T07:53Z 2957 followers, XXX engagements

"Try to be more present with people around you. Cultivate more compassion & loving-kindness towards others. Choose a career or work context that can mindfully & creatively use your hypervigilance - not a deficit-based approach that pathologises a risk catalysed effect on you"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T03:35Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"BlackRock here is acting very similar to how the three major ratings agencies (S&P; Moodys & Fitch) acted about subprime mortgages before the 2008 Great Recession or Global Financial Crisis"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-11T03:21Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"The market is more diverse now. There are more players at the table with each hand. Catalyst events move faster. The 1998-2008 or so period of hedge fund growth is unlikely to be repeated in the same way"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-08T23:28Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"One of the hardest things to do here is to manage the misperceptions & the heightened fear conditioned responses of others. Yes - you are injured (& maybe have moral injury) but you are not a monster. Your lived experience is your own - to be accepted / honoured / lived with"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T03:38Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"What @PeterThiel raises here has been also a long-term insight for Gen Xers about their Baby Boomer parents & elites. In Australia Mark Davis noted this in Gangland (1997). Howe & Strauss did this in 13th Gen: Abort Retry Ignore Fail (1993)"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T03:53Z 2956 followers, XXX engagements

"More recently @RealVision co-founder @RaoulGMI has noted that both Baby Boomer & Gen Xers have pension funds that will be under-funded (Defined Contribution) or that will need to have haircuts (Defined Benefit). Pals analysis is that both Gen Xers & Millennials must save more"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T03:58Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"Enjoy the decline @AntonKreil. @aaron_clareys memoir of 2008 is worth a read (or AGI summary) for IPTM traders who want to understand the Minsky moment that U.S. regional banks will face as their (originated) credit default tranches begin to default:"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T04:15Z 2956 followers, XXX engagements

"Pain Trade catalyst events: - AGI data center expansions & continued investment. - AGI rollout of tools that can refactor / cost reduce / prompt engineer most back-office & some middle-office administrative functions (fintech). - Risk aversion of most back-office administrators"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T04:19Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"- Managers who are caught in a double-bind (Gregory Bateson & Palo Alto Group) & who need permission to act in overly hierarchical institutions. - Preference for Business As Usual (historical lookback period) when market regime change is occurring (second Trump administration)"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T04:23Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"- Managers misperception of what risk on volatility is really like to directly experience as individuals / small teams (pods) using distributed cognition & ensemble learning (see Million Dollar Traders episode X - missile launch catalyst event / airline stocks contagion)"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T04:27Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"- Rational herding (behavioural economics) investor inflows into private credit markets (including sell-side wirehouse bank promotion to retail investors & sector/style ETFs). - Default loss probabilities (tranches) for credit models (Value at Risk; Basel IV)"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T04:31Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"- Catalyst event sequencing (information / inventory models in market microstructure) of AGI adoption/maturation; white-collar employer reductions in headcount; stagflation; central bank delays on interest rate cuts (inflation targeting preferences); & real estate risk exposures"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T04:34Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"- Delays in different industry sectors to understand this sequencing; & similar delays between leader & laggard firms (relative value allocation & possible merger arbitrage opportunities) & between different managers (theory of the firm; George Akerlofs Market for Lemons)"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T04:38Z 2955 followers, XX engagements

"- Catalyst event modelling of financial crash pathways: next 12-18 months (Charles Kindleberger; Didier Sornette; financial history including @andrewrsorkins 1929 & @RayDalios books; Paul Tudor Jones II documentary Trader; & Martin Zweigs calling of 1987 on Wall Street Week)"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T04:42Z 2955 followers, XX engagements

"It was a badly structured trade that transferred his financial (windfall) capital - to his suppliers. To them he was just another entrepreneur who had a prior successful co-founded venture that he had harvested / exited from. He was living the Dream - & paying them to do so"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T08:21Z 2955 followers, XX engagements

"- The monthly expenses were inflated - There were possibly false expenses - He spent his capital on or gave away unit trust equity on business costs that were not revenue or cashflow generating assets - NOV IRR ROCE & optionality criteria failed: a venture rejection signal"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T08:40Z 2955 followers, XX engagements

"- Series A investors did not get their initial capital placement paid back - Michael Porters X Forces analysis was a fail - There was no actual business plan - He had no real differentiation - His business model logics / value proposition were disrupted (red ocean market). /End"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T08:46Z 2955 followers, XX engagements

"BlackRock leverages DeFi sentiment) and ETFs (as a precedent) to assetise / securitise financial instruments & take your money. One example of BlackRocks expertise:"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T08:56Z 2955 followers, XXX engagements

"The Russia leg of nuclear tripolarity - and the Moscow-Tehran axis"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T22:40Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"Credit default / liquidity exposure and sector rotation (Goldman Sachs) relevant"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T23:14Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"Bannon is ex-Goldman Sachs. Thiel is ex-PayPal Mafia; Palantir; was the first outside investor in Facebook/Meta; killed Gawker; & co-wrote Zero to One. You may disagree with their politics. Fine. But they both know very pragmatically how to make money in markets. Learn that"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-09T08:51Z 2956 followers, XX engagements

"Howard Marks is making the likely correct call here. Were at the April 2007 stage of the 2008 Great Recession or Global Financial Crisis as an historical analogy"
X Link @alexburns 2025-11-11T07:26Z 2955 followers, XX engagements