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@A_May_MD "I won't share in depth pitches like $NKTR often (2/year). Only with really compelling setups. I've got another one now. The market says PoS is VERY low and that upside could be 10x+. Like with $NKTR I think the data say success is far more likely than the market thinks. The name is $ABVX (Abivax)"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:33:58 UTC 13.4K followers, 124.1K engagements

"Outline of $ABVX thread (dont miss slide 6): Slide 1: Overview of $ABVX and its past Slide 2: Why is it so cheap Overview of main bear theses Slide 3: P2b Induction data Slide 4: P2b Maintenance data Slide 5: P2a+P2b Long term OLE data and attrition analysis Slide 6: P3 pre-disclosed maintenance arm enrollment (the🔑slide IMO) Slide 7: What is success worth UC M&A case studies Slide 8: My projections for the upcoming P3 readout Slide 9: Summary of thoughts"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:33:59 UTC 13.4K followers, 7541 engagements

"80% are new to Rx weight loss Hmmm how is it that we can know that so many of them supposedly need a personalized dose then 🤔 🤔 🤔 $HIMS $NVO"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-29 14:04:26 UTC 13.4K followers, 10.3K engagements

"$ABVX Not even XX% dilution. Just absolutely BEAUTIFUL. Party in the 9th arrondissement tonight"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-23 20:21:36 UTC 13.4K followers, 32.9K engagements

"Me explaining to The Boys why $MRK should buy $VRNA because their sales reps in pulm clinics would barely even have to learn a new word from Winrevair to Ohtuvayre:"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-02-04 17:51:42 UTC 13.4K followers, 44.7K engagements

"@holdforwhat The buyout rumor that $ABVX had a suitor years ago (which appears to be true) is covered the main document I attached to the pitch thread"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 14:43:44 UTC 13.4K followers, 12.7K engagements

"@derajdranrab @CloisterRes No it's just an older compound. Plenty of examples of MoU of this nature protecting a drug for much longer periods of time than CoM (as it should IMO - a "drug" is not as much about the chemical/compound as it is about PROVING the drug works which is what MoU protects)"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-28 19:17:13 UTC 13.3K followers, XXX engagements

"Slide 3: $ABVX P2b Induction data Although ABVXs induction response rate/delta and endoscopic improvement/delta P2b data are quite competitive the primary endpoint (and focus) in the upcoming P3 readout is going to be Clinical Remission Delta during induction. Unfortunately for ABVX this was their single worst datapoint in P2b coming out at XX% when pooling all X dosing arms. Now the stock would still trade up if a stat sig XX% delta is accomplished in P3 but the upside would likely only be 2-3x since this would be on the low end of competitor efficacy. The bears don't believe that even this"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:34:01 UTC 13.4K followers, 6352 engagements

"Wouldve been more style points had I tweeted this last night but was just having a conversation after the market closed yesterday about how the current $NKTR setup reminds me of $VRNA over the last 1-2 years (receipts in the photo). The data for $VRNA in my opinion were unequivocal. The drug worked well enough to make patients feel better but people picked the company apart looking for every possible negative. 👎🏻It wasnt studied in triple therapy refractory patients 👎🏻Nobody is going to want to use a nebulizer 👎🏻Theres no way they can launch into this giant market alone 👎🏻Biologics"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-09 12:32:31 UTC 13.4K followers, 30K engagements

"Time stamped. $ABVX $RGLS. #1 #2 #LongLiveMicroRNA #BioPick @pawcio2009 @seedy19tron"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-23 00:01:13 UTC 13.4K followers, 38.4K engagements

"Slide 2: Why is $ABVX so cheap Overview of main bear theses. Bear thesis 1: The MoA makes no sense ➡ Obefazimods supposed MoA is to increase the expression of a micro-RNA called miR-124. However the company has never really proven how exactly the drug accomplishes this and frankly miR-124s effects on the body arent straightforward. When potential investors see the noisy P2b data and the obvious lack of understanding of what the drug actually does they are consistently turned off by $ABVX as a potential investment. 🙋♂My take: I dont really care what $ABVXs MoA is because I base my bull case"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:34:00 UTC 13.4K followers, 6651 engagements

"@knowdo1_bio If not exposed to prior biologics then this would help bring their pooled dataset closer to the rest of the UC landscape since $ABVXs P2b patients were exposed to prior biologics at a higher rate than any other study ever conducted"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 18:45:02 UTC 13.4K followers, XXX engagements

"@bradloncar $MBX biosciences with recent ipo and upcoming data Small one called $LLY too but maybe not worth the time 🥱"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-28 17:24:14 UTC 13.4K followers, 1969 engagements

"@Sanctuary_Bio I'm hearing resubmit in different font. $REPL"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-30 01:31:52 UTC 13.4K followers, 4662 engagements

"$ABVX unhalt time keeps getting moved back. It is because the bids for it are too high. I sincerely believe that the stock should be up 1000%+. We are talking about the first line oral here now with no new safety signals. We'll see. Such moves usually don't happen in one session but in my biased opinion that sort of upside is fully merited"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-22 21:02:09 UTC 13.4K followers, 40.1K engagements

"4) $ABVX Vs TL1A M&A Comps The two main comps for TL1A valuations are RVT-3101 from $ROIV And Tulisokibart from $RXDX. Let's focus on why I think $ABVX should be worth MORE than the $10.8B price tag that Tulisokibart fetched. 1Uniqueness of MoA. TL1A has interesting P2 data so far but it is another victim of the "me too" phenomenon in biotech. There are at least X TL1A drugs with P2 level data ALREADY (tulisokibart RVT-3101 Afimkibart Duvakitug). $ABVX's obefazimod is the ONLY drug with its MoA with data of any kind and it is already through phase X data The uniquness of obefazimods' will be"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-28 15:12:30 UTC 13.4K followers, 16.4K engagements

"No. There is no ballpark benchmark for what P3 data like what $ABVX has is worth because literally EVERYTHING else has been bought out by big pharma BEFORE p3 data. The lowest end of that post P2b data buyout list is $6.7B. The high end is $10.8B. $ABVX at $100/share is only $6.3B"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-22 23:18:10 UTC 13.4K followers, 32K engagements

"@AlphaBetaAnil Definitely smart money. Stay tuned for biotech specialist hedge fund filings coming in soon I bet"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-29 16:43:52 UTC 13.4K followers, XXX engagements

"I won't share in depth pitches like $NKTR often (2/year). Only with really compelling setups. I've got another one now. The market says PoS is VERY low and that upside could be 10x+. Like with $NKTR I think the data say success is far more likely than the market thinks. The name is $ABVX (Abivax)"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:33:44 UTC 13.4K followers, 12.3K engagements

"@Barry3252181 @plainyogurt21 @West0_Cap WOW INCREDIBLE. I wonder if similar rare events might be seen with APGEs drug if it were to be studied for OVER X YEARS instead of literally just XX WEEKS. Just give it a rest dude oh my god"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-08 02:34:35 UTC 13.3K followers, XXX engagements

"Slide 5: $ABVX P2a+P2b Pooled Induction and Long-term OLE Data With Attrition Analysis Before their P2b $ABVX had run a randomized and controlled P2a trial as well (important because many P2a studies like $MORFs are done open label). Unlike the P2b that had an outlier low remission delta $ABVXs P2a clinical remission delta was concordant with the rest of their efficacy data coming in at a very impressive XX% 🗒Note the P2a was a much smaller sample size so the best utility of this dataset is to pool it with the P2b numbers. Combining the P2a sample with the P2b sample raises $ABVXs clinical"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:34:02 UTC 13.4K followers, 9857 engagements

"@JoseRestonVA First time theyve used this sort of language. Action against $HIMS definitely happening IMO"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-29 11:34:34 UTC 13.4K followers, 1005 engagements

"$NVO confirms in earnings today that it is pursuing legal action against compounders while specifically naming the false guise of personalization. Theyre talking about $HIMS. All the bulls want you to think $NVO wont do anything. Time for $NVO to defend its IP"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-29 11:26:50 UTC 13.4K followers, 41.4K engagements

"Slide 8: My projections for the upcoming $ABVX P3 readout Ill refer back to slide 6s main table for this in which I used the companys pre-disclosed P3 pooled response rate XX% of the way through the trial and applied various assumptions (both from prior $ABVX studies as well as large samples from pooled P3 studies). I think the most likely range of clinical remission delta is probably somewhere in the 13-15% range. This is based on my extensive analysis of both historical P2 data and the pre-disclosed P3 data that Ive shared here. Now this does not mean that the probability of the clinical"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:34:05 UTC 13.4K followers, 14.4K engagements

"@Sanctuary_Bio Gotta feel bad for $REPL whose viral therapy has killed absolutely no-one (unlike $SRPT s viral therapy)"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-28 21:42:17 UTC 13.4K followers, 4935 engagements

"@DueDoctor Bidding war over $ABVX is $JNJ vs $LLY with both pharmas trying to establish the GOATed safe label oral combo treatment that cant be replicated (IL23+obefazimod for $JNJ and a4b7+obefazimod for $LLY) Who says no"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-23 05:18:18 UTC 13.3K followers, 2861 engagements

"Im with @Citrini7 on this too. $LLY is the champ here. Buy the company with the superior drug AND the ability to actually handle its business. Sell $NVO into the dirt until they prove they can actually stand their ground"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-29 12:49:45 UTC 13.4K followers, 6340 engagements

"@Citrini7 @Citrini7 who is gonna start the $LLY red to green chant"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-29 14:52:53 UTC 13.4K followers, 2321 engagements

"Hopefully for them the new CEO can turn it around. This $NVO + $HIMS relationship and breakup/compounding/personalization situation has been absolutely devastating for $NVOs image IMO. Easily one of the most embarrassing sagas Ive ever seen for a big pharma. Handled it about as poorly as they possibly could have"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-29 12:47:42 UTC 13.4K followers, 4620 engagements

"$NVO named new CEO at the same time too. Clearly going after compounders is a key goal of the new regime at $NVO. I would expect this to weigh on $HIMS"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-29 12:24:19 UTC 13.4K followers, 3368 engagements

"@willkyi Abivax succeeded in P2b X years ago and just exceeded those results in phase X. Cleared for takeoff 🫡"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-29 16:47:11 UTC 13.4K followers, XXX engagements

"Like with $NKTR I will share my long-form research on $ABVX for free via google doc (linked below). This $ABVX research is extensive and the document is substantially longer than $NKTRs was at 25000 words. It will take a lot to get through it but I think the case for ABVX here is compelling. IMO the market hasnt even remotely priced the stock correctly for what I think are relatively high odds of success yielding multibagger potential in August. With that said we need to cover some REALLY important notes on bias and risk: X I am long $ABVX meaning my opinions here are heavily biased. Keep"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:33:58 UTC 13.4K followers, 12.6K engagements

"3) $ABVX Vs S1P1 M&A Comps Zeposia and Velsipity are S1P1 drugs that were acquired for $7.2B and $6.7B respectively (37-47% upside from $ABVX's current valuation). Here are the reasons that $ABVX's drug should be valued much higher than these S1P1 comps were: X SAFETY ABVX is headed for a squeaky clean safety label. This is not only comforting for doctors/patients but it also opens the door to combination therapy with other drugs that might be immunosuppressive without worrying about increasing infection risk. 2Ease of Use Both are once-daily oral drugs but the S1P1 class has highly"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-28 15:12:29 UTC 13.4K followers, 4610 engagements

"Slide 7: What is $ABVX success potentially worth UC M&A case studies. In the last slide I referenced the potential upside of numerous trial hit cases and the numbers may look pretty steep (ranging from 2x to 10x). How do I arrive at such high upside cases Well other investors and sellside firms have been discussing 5-10x upside possibilities but what is this all based on To benchmark the value $ABVXs Obefazimod if it hits in its P3 UC trial my preferred approach is looking at the valuations of the numerous M&A cases that have recently occurred in this space. Lets do that in this slide"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:34:04 UTC 13.4K followers, 6741 engagements

"Super interesting lies in this tweet. Be careful not to get scammed by made up shit like this folks. $VKTX"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-25 23:27:06 UTC 13.4K followers, 60.6K engagements

"🚨PITCH UPDATE🚨$NKTR (link to master document below) The atopic dermatitis readout I pitched was a success and the stock is up XXX% With that said at a measly $100M enterprise value I feel strongly that the market has not yet priced $NKTR appropriately in light of the AtD results and everything else that the company has going for it: ➡A real opportunity in Alopecia Areata ➡Now significantly increased odds of a big payout in the $LLY "botched data" lawsuit ➡What I estimate to be $50-$150M in potential value from licensing their Dapirolizumab royalty stream (yes this asset alone could in my"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-06-29 21:32:27 UTC 13.4K followers, 97.4K engagements

"@epickram1 @Barry3252181 @West0_Cap BIG market though and even a shitty drug like Nemluvio is launching like an absolute rocket. TAM/penetration will continue to grow tootheres room enough for everyone at the atopic derm table right now"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-08 02:30:24 UTC 13.3K followers, XXX engagements

"Literally can't unhalt it because of the bids coming in. $ABVX"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-22 21:06:31 UTC 13.4K followers, 43.4K engagements

"@FrankRi53999857 @seedy19tron Something to do with Euronext listing and US ADR format probably Idk though"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-30 01:13:36 UTC 13.4K followers, XXX engagements

"IMO it will go before maintenance data. All the other M&A/valuation comps were even before P3 induction data $ABVX is further along than any other company has gotten already. The idea theyd have to wait for maintenance or crohns data in order to get their appropriate value goes directly against every case study we have"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-28 15:49:35 UTC 13.4K followers, 1207 engagements

"@seedy19tron $ABVX at $XX premarket. Still a blatant steal. Wont even have to wait a year for this to go to pharma for substantially more in my biased opinion"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-24 11:34:00 UTC 13.4K followers, 3080 engagements

"@seedy19tron @epickram1 Or just save the brain damage and avoid the math altogetherjust comp it to all the $7-$11B M&A deals for far less desirable drugs. This one is easy. $ABVX Congrats to any funds who were able to get free money allocated to them in this offering 😂"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-24 13:33:47 UTC 13.3K followers, 3006 engagements

"$NKTR I think that Nektar should also be getting some credit in its valuation for the possibility that Rezpeg could hit in alopecia areata by the end of this very year The AA P2 study is ongoing and prior to AtD hitting it was deservedly adding $X in value to the company. However now that Rezpeg's success in AtD has proven beyond the shadow of a doubt that the drug is active it is time we start considering the possibility that this AA shot on goal could actually work In fact You may be surprised by this statement: Rezpeg has never failed to show benefit in skin disease in any of the diseases"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-06-29 21:32:28 UTC 13.4K followers, 32.7K engagements

"$ABVX may be up a lot since last week but the upside from $XX remains significant. IMO $ABVX is probably the single most obvious M&A candidate I have ever seen and the price it's trading at remains quite attractive relative to M&A comps. You could argue that UC has been the single biggest indication for biotech M&A over the last X years. So far essentially everything else that has made it past P2 successfully has been bought out (with lofty valuations to boot). $ABVX is in rare territory now since nothing else like this has even made it this far (past P3) without getting bought out Let's go"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-28 15:12:28 UTC 13.4K followers, 46.9K engagements

"Slide 6.The🔑 Slide 👉Analyzing $ABVX's pre-disclosed P3 maintenance arm enrollment 🚨I consider this the most important slide of my $ABVX pitch and I think it digs into a key piece of data that the market is totally missing the importance of🚨 $ABVX has pre-disclosed the enrollment rate of their P3s maintenance arm with XX% of the trial completed Why is this so important Because only induction responders are eligible to enroll into the maintenance arm meaning.we now know the pooled response rate of their phase X induction study XX% of the way through its completion This fact is"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:34:03 UTC 13.4K followers, 46.9K engagements

"Slide 4: The $ABVX P2b Maintenance data look far better than their induction data As you can see in the first table attached to this slide $ABVXs obefazimod has shown the highest long term clinical remission number Ive been able to find for any drug. This further cements my opinion that the drug is highly active and that the mediocre P2b induction remission delta was simply an outlier. There are X major caveats to note when we doing cross-trial comparisons with these maintenance remission numbers however. Caveat 1: $ABVXs maintenance phase was open-label which should artificially INFLATE"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:34:01 UTC 13.4K followers, 6037 engagements

"Im hesitant to say only because I think it sets a bad example for risk tolerance. My risk appetite is exceptionally high and should not be followed by the VAST majority of people. This readout has 90%+ downside potential and no options for hedging so for most a smaller position (if any position at all) is going to be best regarding risk. Ill very likely hold XX% weighting through data which would be WAY too much risk for most"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-22 14:56:20 UTC 13.3K followers, 3746 engagements

"Slide 9: $ABVX Key Points and Summary of Thoughts The market is extremely skeptical that $ABVX is going to hit in the upcoming P3 readout and the stock has largely been forgotten or even simply ignored for years. Most of this pessimism stems from a questionable/uncertain mechanism of action and P2b data that showed an inverse dose response as well as mediocre outcomes on the most important endpoint: Induction clinical remission delta. However as Ive discussed here Im not deterred by an unknown mechanism of action when the clinical data show me that the drug is active which I strongly believe"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:34:05 UTC 13.4K followers, 24.7K engagements

"Slide 1: Overview of $ABVX and its past. $ABVX is a French biotech thats been developing a drug called Obefazimod for years. It was initially studied in HIV and later COVID but has been repurposed for treating Ulcerative Colitis (UC). The company has historically struggled with poor management as well as an EU-exclusive listing that limited access to capital. More recently they got new leadership and launched a US IPO but it could not have possibly come at a worse time occurring in October 2023 within hours of an $XBI rock-bottom of $XXXXX. The stock has never really recovered from the busted"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-21 13:33:59 UTC 13.4K followers, 6967 engagements

"@Biohazard3737 OH also look at that Nemluvio curve. More impressive than the drug's effect size in its studies that's for sure"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-06-16 20:38:00 UTC 13.4K followers, 1424 engagements

"$ABVX XXXX% clinical remission delta. Black swan level upside incoming"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-22 20:06:59 UTC 13.4K followers, 122.4K engagements

"$ABVX is still halted but I am PLEASED to announce that I will be forfeiting my first place spot in the @pawcio2009 biopick contest to @seedy19tron as $ABVX will likely soon be up more on the year than any other biotech stock. Always glad to have my biggest position unseat my first place spot ☺"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-22 20:14:52 UTC 13.4K followers, 37.7K engagements

"🚨PITCH ALERT🚨 $NKTR Currently at $XXXXX representing a 0.45x cash multiple and approaching an atopic dermatitis (AD) readout that has a legitimate chance at success $NKTR represents one of the most compelling risk/reward profiles I have ever seen in small cap biotech. This thread provides a very basic overview of the setup. For greater depth I have provided a link to a much longer pitch at the end of this first "slide". Although I am clearly bullish (and long) $NKTR at its current prices I am NOT arguing that their AD readout has an atypically high probability of success (POS). Rather I"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-02-10 13:42:56 UTC 13.4K followers, 241.7K engagements

"Its funny I tried to highlight the most important portion of the $ABVX pitch yesterday and that slide is still somehow tied for fewest views. IMO people are really sleeping on the importance of these data $ABVX has literally given us a vitally important piece of the phase X dataset AHEAD OF TIME IMO the info they have disclosed says that they are very likely to hit stat sig when they report P3 data (likely next month). Is there still failure risk Absolutely - theres no guarantees in biotech EVER. But I have to sayIve never seen such an impactful pre-data disclosure from a P3 trial before"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-22 12:48:09 UTC 13.4K followers, 37.1K engagements

"@Barry3252181 @West0_Cap Youre not just analyzing the data wrong youre literally not even analyzing the right data. Read the NEJM paper. Tell me what you find. Waiting"
@A_May_MD on X 2025-07-08 00:52:53 UTC 13.3K followers, XXX engagements