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@effoff1988 "Hollywood budgets are getting out of control. A chamber piece like AFTER THE HUNT - a film that I liked for the record - has no business costing over 5-25M let alone 70-80M. BEN IS BACK is proof that a great Julia Roberts indie star vehicle CAN be made on a reasonable budget"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-29T16:55Z 5243 followers, 19.7K engagements

"I hope Usha Vance has great security at all times because I REALLY don't trust MAGA with her safety. And for the record if you want your spouse to switch to your religion you do NOT love them as they are and you do NOT accept them for who they are and THAT makes you an asshole"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-31T13:12Z 5244 followers, 1322 engagements

"Chase Infiniti now has the chance to accomplish something actresses of colour very rarely get a fair shot at in Hollywood : establish herself as an Oscar nominated leading () lady while still in her 20s AND for a big studio auteur film with X Oscar winners in the cast. Queen"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-09T01:19Z 5242 followers, 4810 engagements

"(1/2) Lead Actor will be interesting. Initially underestimated contenders (most of Row 1) are now looking stronger due to MANY high-profile contenders losing significant steam (Row 2). Post-Frankenstein glow up Oscar Isaac and if campaigned here Josh O'Connor could emerge"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-24T17:55Z 5239 followers, 1827 engagements

"(2/2) There are X contenders I don't expect to be Oscar contenders but do expect them for specific precursors : Will Arnett for Golden Globes and Harry Melling at Bafta (shortlist). P.S. I don't predict unreviewed films. Song Sung Blue embargo lifts on Sunday Marty Supreme TBA"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-24T17:58Z 5239 followers, XXX engagements

"So if SPRINGSTEEN stays in that 11-12M rage that won't be great but won't be a disaster either. The Smashing Machine with a similar price tag opened with roughly half that earlier this month. The global OW for Springsteen could be 20M. Not bad. Just not great either"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-24T22:02Z 5242 followers, 1347 engagements

"P.S. This is not the kind of BO that gets in the way of an Oscar nod. Weaker than expected critics consensus is. So THAT could get in the way. Also : anyone claiming the 22M OW for the 130M+ OBAA was fine should not have a bad word to say about this 11-12M OW on a 55M budget"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-24T22:06Z 5242 followers, XXX engagements

"(2/2) Lead Actor and S. Actress are still all over the place but SAG/Bafta will sort them out. Top4 in Lead Actress and S. Actor is starting to look rather firm (below) with the 5th slot still wide open. My current hunch is Tessa Thompson (epic role) & Miles Caton (epic film)"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-27T09:04Z 5238 followers, 1262 engagements

"Rachel Zegler & Ben Platt are talented & on the right side of history. A joint slay. Marc & Jonah Platt are not talented & on the wrong side of history. A joint fail. Latter duo attempting to destroy her for being against child mass murder will not be forgotten. Nor forgiven"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-27T11:19Z 5233 followers, 5496 engagements

"@ronaldotrancoso I have him at #1 at the moment. I am not expecting DiCaprio to win a second White is probably now gunning for the nomination only so unless Chalamet gets universal acclaim (81+) Moura seems good for the win to me. Marty Supreme reviews will sort this out"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-27T23:32Z 5238 followers, 1655 engagements

"Film Twitter is finally clocking the Oscar potential of Guillermo del Toro's FRANKENSTEIN but many are still sleeping on Rian Johnson's WAKE UP DEAD MAN. I expect both to be a lot stronger in BP Adapted Script Supporting Acting categories than currently given credit for"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T15:18Z 5241 followers, 3836 engagements

"Important to remember in the Oscar context about smaller precursors like Gotham (Spirit critics groups) that while a nod/win from them can help an underestimated contender a snub cant hurt. Only industry award (Guilds+Bafta) snubs with Oscar overlap can. Winners of the day :"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T16:30Z 5239 followers, 14.1K engagements

"P.S. Long story short there is no reason to start worrying about Marty Supreme Leonardo DiCaprio Michael B. Jordan Emma Stone Renate Reinsve Jennifer Lopez Regina Hall Joel Edgerton and the rest. While a Gotham nomination can help boost a low profile a snub cant hurt"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T16:34Z 5233 followers, 2735 engagements

"@roaring20y Not even Twinless is out solely based on Gotham I think. If/when it gets nothing from Phase X (Gotham Spirit Golden Globe Critics Choice Regional Critics Groups) then it will be probably out but even then it could reemerge with a Guild/Bafta mention"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T16:43Z 5239 followers, XXX engagements

"Update : Apparently the deadline was Sept18. Gotham did Marty Supreme & Is This Thing On dirty because how do you celebrate the best films of 2025 if you only consider ones completed in the first X months of the year Especially when both were ready to screen in NYC weeks ago"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T18:00Z 5238 followers, 1601 engagements

"@sjsjssjwjwjwj I do. But we will have to see reviews and Box Office numbers first. A month ago everyone assumed Dwayne Johnson Jeremy Allen White Daniel Day-Lewis Jesse Plemons George Clooney Brendan Fraser would be top contenders. Then the final critics consensus/BO numbers arrived"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T18:49Z 5242 followers, XXX engagements

"@AjayLopez25 I have him at #5 in my Oscar predictions in supporting actor"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T18:52Z 5241 followers, XXX engagements

"@RatTailRetard He would have with a better distributor. But that films campaign is now limited to supporting actress and costume design I think they dont have the resources for a lead acting campaign of a newcomer"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T20:04Z 5235 followers, XXX engagements

"@Fashion_Nexus Kindergarten bully level. And this is someone on the record claiming to be a professional unbiased feminist journalist and Hollywood truth teller. Kjersti Flaa couldnt tell the truth about Justin Baldoni and his team if every cent she ever made had depended on it. Hack"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-29T05:33Z 5240 followers, XXX engagements

"@AlexMinNZ I think the 1st one would have been in BP if they already had XX fixed slots that year. That's what the PGA WGA nods and AFI Top10 mention strongly suggest. 2nd had the sequel obstacle but the 3rd one being the trilogy ender could fare better"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-29T08:19Z 5241 followers, XX engagements

"@RickOscar2001 @hazi_vii My point being that you are a toxic stan from a single purpose hate burner account with zero followers trolling tweets about Jennifer Lopez with one word bs disses"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-29T12:29Z 5243 followers, XX engagements

"@bubaroso She was not nominated for a Gotham. Her first big test will be the Golden Globes"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-29T12:58Z 5243 followers, XX engagements

"P.S. And for the record Deadline and pundits in general should ditch the misogyny because why is Julia Robertss ATH salary a part of this discourse but not the DiCaprio/Penn OBAA salaries Because the truth is OBAA had no business costing that much (130M) either"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-29T17:01Z 5242 followers, 1763 engagements

"@jueviesabdom Your tacky Hahahaha designed to disrespect any actress who dares to be in competition with Jennifer Lawrence this season will not get you far in any of my threads. Byrne Seyfried Thompson have more Oscar friendly roles better distributors better campaign narratives. Cope"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-29T22:04Z 5242 followers, XXX engagements

"(1/2) Ryan Reynolds: (posts sweet couple pic of himself & his wife) Blake Lively: (reposts it with hearts over his name) Kjersti Flaa: Ryan no longer supports his wife DUMPS BLAKE Flaa should stick to hawking makeup and abuse apologia merch. Journalism is not for her"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-20T03:55Z 5242 followers, 1892 engagements

"Potential 1st Oscar nominations I am rooting for this season (there are many more wanted to keep it at X per category): Rose Byrne Chase Infiniti Thessa Thompson Wagner Moura Josh O'Connor Tonatiuh Regina Hall Jennifer Lopez Wunmi Mosaku Jacob Elordi Jacobi Jupe David Jonsson"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-23T14:21Z 5242 followers, 15.9K engagements

"(1/2) Truth is that actors like Julia Roberts and Andrew Garfield are not really at risk in these situations since everyone on their set will make sure the beloved movie stars are not traumatised harmed inconvenienced in any way. This was also a brief fully clothed scene"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-18T13:09Z 5242 followers, 32.4K engagements

"P.S. It takes a special level of "beloved" to win THREE acting Oscars. In the last XX years only Frances McDormand Meryl Streep Daniel Day-Lewis & Jack Nicholson got that rare honour. Penn is great in OBAA but he is not on a level that would warrant him joining that quartet"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-20T17:06Z 5241 followers, 1506 engagements

"Everything Kjersti Flaa accuses Blake Lively with is something Team Baldoni is guilty of. Truly toxic & shameless gaslighting. Team Baldoni has been publicly preparing for the worst & are terrified & in full panic mode because of Livelys indisputable evidence. Pathetic"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T22:54Z 5242 followers, 1169 engagements

"@muiratcid I have had her in the top4 since Venice"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-29T15:38Z 5242 followers, XXX engagements

"No. Johnny Depp is a one trick pony and the moviegoing crowd had gotten tired of that one trick long before Amber Heard's op-ed. He had one too many flops on top of one too many burned bridges to have a shot at a redemption era. Not that he even deserves one"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-26T15:36Z 5243 followers, 3022 engagements

"(1/2) IF THE THE OSCARS WERE TODAY (October) New post at the end of every month. Will only add already reviewed performances. New entries in blue. Category confusion in red. No 2025 date in green. Verdict : Frankenstein & Hedda glowed up. Springsteen & Bugonia lost some steam"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-27T08:56Z 5243 followers, 17.7K engagements

"(1/2) On one hand the first X social media reactions from legit pundits are very positive for #WickedForGood. On the other hand roughly an hour post-embargo why are there still only X and from just X publications X from Variety X from Deadline X from Vanity Fair"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T03:02Z 5243 followers, 5713 engagements

"6 actors who absolutely should not be underestimated this Oscar season: Tessa Thompson Amanda Seyfried Rose Byrne Wagner Moura Wunmi Mosaku Jacob Elordi. They have been exceeding expectations all year and I dont expect them to stop doing that now. Or at all this Oscar season"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T17:09Z 5243 followers, 19.7K engagements

"#SlowHorses S5 Finale - The most consistent scripted show of the decade had done it again. These short seasons continue to feel like like quirky expertly executed Bond films (complimentary). Aimee- Ffion Edwards & Jack Lowden remain my MVPs but the entire cast is great. S6 LFG"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-29T20:53Z 5243 followers, 1634 engagements

"(1/2) Not sure if it is incompetence or client journalism or both but Variety's HEDDA / CHRISTY coverage has been telling. Hedda opened yesterday. Variety promoted it with X tweet in the last XX hours & even that was not acknowledging Tessa Thompson's tour de force performance"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-30T08:36Z 5243 followers, 20.7K engagements

"(2/2) Ariana Grande delivered great work in Part I and no doubt will do the same in Part II but "Oscar glory" while clearly not impossible depending on critics would be unprecedented. Cautious optimism especially at a time when there are still no reviews would be wise"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-31T07:50Z 5243 followers, 1280 engagements

"(1/2) It would be so great if competent people who know AND love the theatrical experience were in charge of major studios. Because what do you mean Halloween week(end) is about to be a Box Office bust because Warner Bros. and Netflix don't know how to play their Aces"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-31T11:26Z 5243 followers, 2509 engagements

"@JamieDellaquila I am expecting a Golden Globe nomination for her but no Oscar nomination at the moment. But she is one of the household names along with Emma Stone and Julia Roberts who may sneak in after securing crucial SAG/Bafta nominations that less famous actors may struggle with"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-31T14:33Z 5243 followers, XXX engagements

"Haven't seen it so not sure how shady this category placement is but from a strategic POV it makes sense because oddly enough there is a lot more wiggle room in Drama than Comedy this season. If Laura Dern & Will Arnett are in Sydney Sweeney and Dwayne Johnson are in trouble"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-31T16:18Z 5244 followers, 4594 engagements

"The fact that someone had the audacity to ask Jessie Buckley about this is disgusting. Nobody would ever feel the need to call a film about grief from/about men grief porn. Just another subconsciously misogynistic way to degrade women by associating them to the word porn"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-11-01T06:40Z 5243 followers, 5563 engagements

"I have a hard time believing Marty Supreme did not qualify when it had NYC screenings of the final cut X weeks ago. There is nothing wrong with admitting that a faves film was snubbed by a tiny voting body. Not being on the Gotham list will not hurt its Oscar campaign at all"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-28T17:20Z 5242 followers, 15.8K engagements

"The ending was brilliant. Precisely because of its ambiguous restraint : it never confirmed let alone showed the carnage and it was clearly stated warheads can malfunction. Point was not to give an ending wrapped with a bow it was to start a conversation. An important one"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-30T07:20Z 5243 followers, 2851 engagements

"Kevin Costner assaulted Wes Bentley and reduced Kelly Reilly to tears on the Yellowstone set Oh he is OVER over. Anyone who traumatises Kelly Reilly should be"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-10T14:25Z 5243 followers, 28.6K engagements

"While I expect OBAA to win a major category I am not expecting that to be supporting actor. Sean Penn has a horrible reputation X lead Oscars that aged like milk and a history of trash talking awards in general. I think Paul Mescal and Stellan Skarsgrd will be top2"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-20T16:58Z 5243 followers, 15.7K engagements

"There is a good chance of another Brazilian surprise on Golden Globe night : Wagner Moura. Especially now that - OBAA & Marty Supreme are in comedy - Springsteen The Smashing Machine Anemone all underperformed - Jordan and Isaac are widely not seen as the MVPs in their films"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-26T04:03Z 5243 followers, 36.6K engagements

"@StephenSilver There is a difference between being paid fairly and being overpaid. X figure salaries for 6-7 week indie drama shoots are latter"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-30T14:10Z 5243 followers, XXX engagements

"And just like that the X GG lead actress categories seem set now. In order of likelihood IMO Jessie Buckley Renate Reinsve Jennifer Lawrence Tessa Thompson Julia Roberts Sydney Sweeney Amanda Seyfried Rose Byrne Cynthia Erivo Emma Stone Chase Infiniti Kate Hudson"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-30T21:32Z 5243 followers, 46.2K engagements

"In the Oscar context I am currently leaning toward this quintet in this order: Jessie Buckley Renate Reinsve Amanda Seyfried Rose Byrne Tessa Thompson. Asterisks: /Erivo is still pre-review embargo /Infiniti could get a big BP boost /SAG+Bafta may go with more household names"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-31T05:39Z 5243 followers, 4970 engagements

"(1/2) I cant' take any pundit seriously who does clickbait headlines like this for a film that still has a review embargo in place. Pundits did this last year too to get the gazillion clicks from her giant fanbase and it was unfair to them then too. And still is"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-31T07:49Z 5244 followers, 9089 engagements

"(2/2) No - Sinners re-release in 2000 theatres - The Bride back to its OG date - Frankenstein wide expansion - Wake Up Dead Man wide OW I mean Netflix thought of putting Kpop into wide release for the 2nd time but not Frankenstein or Wake Up Dead Man ON HALLOWEEN WEEK"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-31T11:30Z 5243 followers, XXX engagements

"@JamieDellaquila That is not always a dealbreaker when the performance itself is acclaimed and the performer in question is a household name. Not like Roman J. Israel Esq was a hit from any angle yet Denzel still made the cut. Same for Joy / Jennifer Lawrence. And the list goes on"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-10-31T16:23Z 5243 followers, XXX engagements

"@mOscars5 Bugonia was on the other end of the spectrum of this. It started high (82) then settled for a month or so at around 75-77 and its final score is now XX. XX is still solid just not in the context of past Lanthimos/Stone Oscar films. Its critics consensus/BO is closer to KoK"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-11-01T06:24Z 5243 followers, XXX engagements

"P.S. The fact that this lazy toxic ignorant phrase was not a part of the Manchester by the Sea discourse yet male pundits have been trying to make it a big part of the Hamnet discourse since the test screening stage speaks volumes. Chloe Zhao and Jessie Buckley deserve better"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-11-01T06:44Z 5243 followers, XXX engagements

"BLACK PHONE is studio franchise done right. As in reasonable budget / high concept so low financial risk with proper breakout potential. And the consistency both in quality and BO performance is impressive. Sequel is heading to 80M US/140-150M worldwide on a 30M+PR budget"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-11-01T08:28Z 5243 followers, XXX engagements

"@Zor1725225 Oh look as I always said you are lying and gaslighting once again about Taylor Swift. Baldoni dragged her into this case in January in court documents. Blake Lively has been trying to keep her friend out of it at every turn. Multiple burner bs again You are sick af"
X Link @effoff1988 2025-11-01T11:36Z 5244 followers, XX engagements