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@TheStudyofWar "NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his theory of victory which holds that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition and his demand for Ukraines full capitulation. Other Key Takeaways: Putin acknowledged Ukraines long-range strike campaign against Russian oil refineries amidst ongoing gasoline shortages and price surges in Russia and occupied Ukraine. The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to use defunct US-Russian arms control treaties to gain concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine. The Kremlins moves to withdraw from PMDA likely"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-09T03:31Z 754.2K followers, 394.7K engagements

"WARNING: The Kremlin is Preparing to Mobilize Reservists on a Rolling Basis to Fight in Ukraine for the First Time: Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time. Key Takeaway Russia may begin to mobilize members of Russias active reserve on a rolling basis to sustain its combat operations in Ukraine but it is unlikely to conduct a large-scale involuntary reserve mobilization to expand the size of the Russian military dramatically at this time. The creation of a mechanism for small rolling mobilizations would be a"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-14T01:30Z 754.2K followers, 457.8K engagements

"The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear. Ukrainian forces are able to conduct long-range drone strikes against a significant portion of Russias rear but the payloads on these drones are limited and not suitable to destroy specialized objects. Ukraines ability to launch missile strikes deep into Russias rear with larger payloads would allow Ukraine to significantly damage if not destroy key military assets in Russia such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga Republic of"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-06T01:32Z 754.2K followers, 779.4K engagements

"The Kremlin has been engaged in a campaign to deter US sales of Tomahawks to Ukraine in recent days issuing boilerplate claims about US participation in the strikes the threat such missile deliveries would pose to US-Russian relations and the missiles inability to shift the situation on the battlefield. The Kremlins October XX claims about the difficulties in discriminating between nuclear and conventional payloads mark an inflection in this informational campaign"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-14T04:00Z 754.2K followers, 86.6K engagements

"NEW: Russian federal ministries continue to facilitate the temporary deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia for cultural re-education programs such as Cultural Map X + XX. 🧵(1/2) Additional Key Takeaways: The Russian Eaglets of Russia military-patriotic program is spreading to elementary schools in occupied Ukraine. Russian occupation administrators are escalating their campaign to use subscriber identification module (SIM) cards to drive coerced passportization in occupied Ukraine ahead of the November X SIM card re-registration deadline. Russia has begun the next phase of its campaign"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-09T18:08Z 754.2K followers, 86.2K engagements

"NEW: Iranian officials have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz likely to try to discourage the United States from enforcing sanctions that target Iranian oil exports. Iranian officials have recently increased inspections of naval units in the Persian Gulf. (1/2)"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-09T00:00Z 754.2K followers, 35.9K engagements

"The Kremlin stated that it will not implement the agreed ceasefire in the Black Sea until the United States lifts sanctions on Russian state-owned agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank and other unspecified financial organizations involved in international food and fertilizer trade.(1/2)"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-03-26T02:28Z 754.2K followers, 89.7K engagements

"NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to deter the US from sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by linking improvements in the US-Russian bilateral relationship to concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear. Russia launched its largest combined drone and missile strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of October X to X with XXX combined projectiles. The pro-Russian Georgian Dream"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-05T23:49Z 754.2K followers, 406.5K engagements

"Ukraines ability to launch missile strikes deep into Russias rear with larger payloads would allow Ukraine to significantly damage if not destroy key military assets in Russia such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga Republic of Tatarstan or the Engels-2 Air Base in Saratov Oblast from which Russia sorties strategic bombers that fire air-launch cruise missiles at Ukraine"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-07T15:00Z 754.2K followers, 160.9K engagements

"Iran Update October XX 2025:"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-14T23:17Z 754.2K followers, 23.1K engagements

"2/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-14T00:58Z 754.2K followers, 30K engagements

"The Russian defense industry is implementing long term efforts to increase T-90 tank production and recreate Russias pre-war tank reserves indicating that Russia intends to present a long-term military threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Recent open-source data indicates that Russia is also increasing its refurbishment of T-72 tanks possibly for use on the battlefield in Ukraine in the short term or to reestablish its tank reserve to threaten NATO in the medium term. Russian forces are still using tanks to advance on the battlefield during infrequent mechanized assaults"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-12T01:10Z 754.2K followers, 327.9K engagements

"4/ The PRC announced sanctions against Taiwanese DPP legislator Puma Shen United Microelectronics Corporation founder Robert Tsao and Shens Kuma Academy civil defense organization. It added Shen and Tsao to its list of Taiwan independence diehards"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2024-10-18T17:00Z 754.2K followers, 2507 engagements

"This event is the first instance of ISW observing little green men (a euphemism the Kremlin uses for the Russian military forces in unmarked uniforms) operating near a NATO state in the context of the Phase Zero campaign"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-13T16:00Z 754.2K followers, 71.2K engagements

"NEW: Russian forces launched a large combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of October X to XX primarily targeting energy infrastructure and civilian targets. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin continues parallel efforts to curry favor with the United States while deflecting blame onto Ukraine and Europe for stalling negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine. Putin also continued to threaten the West as part of his reflexive control campaign aimed at preventing the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and portraying Russias continued adherence to the"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-11T01:51Z 754.2K followers, 147.5K engagements

"American intelligence sharing with Ukraine has reportedly been crucial in increasing the efficacy of Ukraines long-range drone strike campaign targeting the Russian energy sector in recent months"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-13T01:04Z 754.2K followers, 104.5K engagements

"European officials continue to note how Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe supporting ISWs assessment that Russia has entered Phase Zero the informational and psychological condition-setting phase of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-14T03:00Z 754.2K followers, 84.9K engagements

"NEW: Russian forces conducted a large combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of October X to X increasingly leveraging missiles in large but infrequent strike packages. Russian forces likely stockpiled ballistic and cruise missiles throughout September 2025 to conduct a few large scale drone and missile strikes on select days. Russian forces are likely leveraging recent upgrades to Russian ballistic missiles to improve their ability to penetrate Ukrainian air defense systems. Russia continues to escalate its destabilization efforts against Europe as European officials"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-04T00:35Z 754.2K followers, 447.7K engagements

"3/ Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area near Pokrovsk Novopavlivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment October XX 2025:"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-14T00:58Z 754.2K followers, 29.1K engagements

"MORE Ceasefire in the Gaza Strip: The Hamas-Israel ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is a framework ceasefire agreement and not a comprehensive agreement to end the war. Hamas and Israel continued to hold indirect negotiations on US President Donald Trumps ceasefire plan in Egypt on October X which demonstrates that both sides view the plan as a starting point or framework for further negotiations rather than a comprehensive agreement to end the war Syrian Democratic Forces and Syrian Government Integration: The United States facilitated a ceasefire between the Syrian government and the Syrian"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-08T01:30Z 754.2K followers, 83.6K engagements

"Read more recent updates on the human rights implications of Russias war in Ukraine:"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-15T16:00Z 754.2K followers, 18.9K engagements

"According to the March XX 2025 Russian Occupation Update Ukraine has been able to verify Russias deportation of 19456 children to date although the true figure is likely to be much higher because Russia frequently targets vulnerable children without anyone to speak for them. The true number of deported children is near-impossible to verify but the implication remains the same Russia has stolen tens potentially hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children with the explicit intent of eradicating their Ukrainian identities and turning them into Russians. ISW has also observed continued Russian"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-15T16:00Z 754.2K followers, 23.4K engagements

"ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is waging a reflexive control campaign to deter the United States from authorizing the sale of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by threatening a deterioration in US-Russian relations. ISW assesses that the US provisioning of Tomahawk missiles would not engender a significant escalation in Russias war against Ukraine and instead that the provisioning of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would mirror Russias own use of commensurate Russian long-range cruise missiles against Ukraine. US Tomahawk missiles long-range capabilities and sizable payload would"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-16T01:30Z 754.2K followers, 62.1K engagements

"NEW: Russia appears to be accelerating the informational and psychological condition-setting phase Phase X of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. More European officials continue to report drone sightings in European airspace. German officials attributed recent drone flights over the Munich Airport to Russia. The Kremlin continues to deny responsibility for recent drone incursions into NATO airspace. Russian forces conducted a fiber optic first-person view (FPV) drone strike for the first time against Kramatorsk on October X furthering Russian efforts to"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-07T03:13Z 754.2K followers, 301.5K engagements

"ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to portray potential US Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine although the Kremlin has consistently failed to respond when the West violated Russias supposed red lines in the past. Russias ongoing strikes against Ukraine repeated efforts to delay negotiations and then deflect blame for the delay onto Ukraine and ongoing threats including nuclear saber rattling against the West indicate that Putin is disinterested in a peaceful and just ending to the war in"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-11T18:00Z 754.2K followers, 76.1K engagements

"NEW: The Kremlin removed some restrictions on using Russian reservists in combat allowing the Kremlin to employ reservists in its war in Ukraine. The Russian government approved on October XX a draft law that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed stipulating that servicemembers of the Russian mobilization reserve can perform defensive tasks during armed conflicts counter-terrorist operations or deployments outside Russian territory. The law proposes that the Russian president can call up reservists for special training lasting up to two months. An explanatory note to the law states"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-14T00:58Z 754.2K followers, 338.2K engagements

"Russias effort to generate increased military recruitment through high financial incentives is reportedly losing momentum indicating that Russias main method for recruiting volunteers for its war may be hitting diminishing returns. ISW assessed in February 2025 that ever-greater financial incentives for recruits in the future are unlikely to dramatically increase recruitment as a large portion of the pool of Russian citizens who are incentivized by money at levels the Russian state could afford to offer at scale have likely already volunteered to join the military. The growing financial"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-13T14:00Z 754.2K followers, 60.4K engagements

"The European Parliament stated that the range of Russias sabotage and hybrid activities against the EU amounts to state-sponsored terrorism even if they fall below the threshold of an armed attack. ISW assesses however that Russia has been increasingly engaging in covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered Phase X the informational and psychological condition-setting phase of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-10T13:30Z 754.2K followers, 54.9K engagements

"NEW: Russian forces have conducted three company- and battalion-sized mechanized assaults in priority areas of Donetsk Oblast over the last two weeks marking an inflection in recent Russian armor usage in Ukraine. 🧵 (1/3) Russian forces have largely favored leveraging small groups of infantry to conduct infiltration missions and make slow advances throughout the front line over conducting mechanized assaults during the first nine months of 2025. Russian forces are still leveraging infantry to advance but have conducted several comparatively larger mechanized assaults in their priority"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-15T00:11Z 754.2K followers, 173.6K engagements

"NEW: Israel and Hamas implemented a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on October XX. The ceasefire agreement does not address outstanding issues that were initially included in US President Donald Trumps plan for peace in the Gaza Strip such as Hamas disarmament a full Israeli withdrawal or Gazas future governance. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew to the eastern half of the Gaza Strip before the ceasefire began. Other Key Takeaways: The United States sanctioned two Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)-owned commercial entities three Iraqi bank executives and three Kataib Hezbollah officials on"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-10T23:19Z 754.2K followers, 73.3K engagements

"NEW: Leaked documents detail Russian plans to equip and train a PLA airborne battalion which could play a significant role in a PRC invasion of Taiwan. The documents illustrate how Russia is supporting PLA modernization efforts. Other Key Takeaways: Xi Jinping has reportedly urged US President Donald Trump to revise US policy on Taiwan and specify that the United States opposes Taiwanese independence. The PRC is likely emboldened following previous US concessions regarding Taiwan. The PRC has continued to coopt international institutions as forums to promote itself as a responsible global"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-04T13:00Z 754.2K followers, 320.6K engagements

"2/ Iran Update October XX 2025:"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-13T19:30Z 754.2K followers, 30.1K engagements

"Kremlin officials continue to apply the same narratives to the Baltic states that Russia has used to justify its invasions of former Soviet states in the past three decades. Kremlin narratives about Russias compatriots in the Baltics and the wider Russian World are part of the Kremlins years-long efforts to set conditions to justify possible Russian aggression against NATO in the future"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-15T18:00Z 754.2K followers, 73.6K engagements

"The Kremlin continued its reflexive control campaign aimed at deterring the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine including by threatening to deploy Russian missiles to Cuba. The Kremlin is trying to invoke memories of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis to threaten the United States. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is pursuing various multi-pronged information efforts to deter the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-10T01:59Z 754.2K followers, 86.2K engagements

"MORE: Recent Russian threats about Tomahawk missile provisions are part of Russias wider reflexive control campaign that aims to coerce Russias opponents to make policy decisions that actually benefit Russia"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-08T03:00Z 754.2K followers, 77.1K engagements

"NEW: German officials reported more unidentified drone sightings near airports and military facilities. Other Key Takeaways: Russia continues to challenge and probe NATO states capabilities possibly as part of preparations for a potential future Russia-NATO war. Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine that resulted in civilian casualties and damaged critical energy infrastructure. Ukraine continues to conduct long-range strikes against Russian oil refineries exacerbating ongoing gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine. Russian forces recently"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-05T00:56Z 754.2K followers, 370.4K engagements

"NEW: Hamas and Israel agreed on October X to the first phase of US President Donald Trumps plan for peace in the Gaza Strip. The Hamas-Israel ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is a framework ceasefire agreement and not a comprehensive agreement to end the war. Hamas and Israeli officials have not yet discussed key outstanding aspects of the US plan including governance over the Gaza Strip and Hamas disarmament. It remains unclear if the Hamas-Israel ceasefire will impact how Hamas partners in the Axis of Resistance engage with Israel. (1/2)"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-09T22:51Z 754.2K followers, 49.4K engagements

"NEW: The Kremlin remains committed to its rhetorical effort to dissuade the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine amidst critical policy debates. Other Key Takeaways: The Trump administration continues to voice support for additional military support for Ukraine ahead of the October XX meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Kremlin continues to advance its messaging strategy designed to separate the United States from Ukraine and Europe to undermine NATO cohesion and support for Ukraine. Dutch officials recently observed"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-15T23:40Z 754.2K followers, 80.7K engagements

"Russia may be able to pose a significant threat to NATO on a timeline much sooner than 2036 and without necessarily reconstituting its tank fleet"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-12T20:17Z 754.2K followers, 110K engagements

"WARNING: Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against Polish critical infrastructure and drone incursions and blame Ukraine. Russias Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on September XX baselessly accused Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false flag attack with special forces and possibly drones against Polish critical infrastructure to implicate Russia and Belarus. ISW assesses that Russia is likely setting information conditions so that Russia can blame Ukraine for any of the described attacks that Russia itself may conduct against Poland or other NATO states."
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-09-30T16:40Z 754.2K followers, 345.4K engagements

"NEW: The Kremlin continues its reflective control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to portray potential US Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine. The Kremlin has previously conducted similar influence operations when the United States was discussing sending Ukraine Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) F-16 fighter jets and Abrams tanks and has routinely"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-08T00:15Z 754.2K followers, 304.8K engagements

"NEW: Hamas and Israel have continued to implement the October X ceasefire agreement. Hamas released all XX living hostages and the bodies of four deceased hostages and Israel released at least 1700 Palestinian prisoners on October XX. The ceasefire agreement does not address key outstanding issues between Hamas and Israel such as Hamas disarmament a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and future governance in the strip. (1/2) Other Key Takeaway: Senior Iranian officials have continued to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz likely to try to deter the United States and its allies"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-13T19:30Z 754.2K followers, 67K engagements

"NEW: Estonian authorities temporarily closed a section of road passing through Russian territory near the Russia-Estonia border on October XX after Estonian border guards observed a small group of Russian military personnel without insignia in the area. ISW continues to assess that Russia has recently intensified its covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered Phase Zero the informational and psychological condition-setting phase of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. This event is the first instance of ISW observing little green men"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-12T23:29Z 754.2K followers, 407.9K engagements

"MORE: Leaked Russian estimates of Russian killed in action (KIA) to wounded in action (WIA) rates in Ukraine underscore the impact of increased tactical drone usage in Ukraine and the extent to which drones complicate ground advances and casualty evacuation. 🧵(1/3)"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-08T13:34Z 754.1K followers, 52K engagements

"NEW: Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Sharas meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October XX indicates that the Syrian government will likely pursue a pragmatic and multi-faceted relationship with Russia. Other Key Takeaways: Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Sharas meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October XX indicates that the Syrian government will likely pursue a pragmatic and multi-faceted relationship with Russia. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) continues to receive Iranian oil exports at PRC port terminals despite five rounds of US sanctions"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-16T00:25Z 754.2K followers, 27.3K engagements

"NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin issued the decree to start the semi-annual fall conscription cycle on October X. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin plans to spend XX trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2026 about XX percent of its planned annual expenditures. The Russian government is planning to increase funding to televised propaganda in line with increased restrictions on social media and internet access. US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg acknowledged that Ukraine has US permission to conduct long-range strikes against Russian territory."
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-09-30T01:43Z 754.2K followers, 235.5K engagements

"2/ To read the full October XX 2025 Iran Update click here:"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-10T23:19Z 754.2K followers, 30K engagements

"NEW: The PRC may have provided targeting intelligence via satellite to support a recent large-scale Russian strike on Ukraine. This support could provide the PLA some critical operational experience that it currently lacks. The PLA has emphasized the need to use space-based reconnaissance and long-range and precision strikes in modern warfare. Other Key Takeaways: The PLA has expanded one of its mock Taipei training grounds in Inner Mongolia. The expansion of that site reflects PLA efforts to make military exercises increasingly realistic and better prepare the force for combat around Taipei"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-10T21:30Z 754.2K followers, 77.2K engagements

"NEW: EU and NATO states continue to take steps to increase European defenses against covert and overt Russian attacks. More key takeaways (1/3) The Kremlin continued its reflexive control campaign aimed at deterring the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine including by threatening to deploy Russian missiles to Cuba. Kremlin officials continue to indicate that US-Russian relations are deteriorating to levels similar to those during the Biden administration. Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK Valerii Zaluzhnyi highlighted a Russian cognitive warfare effort to spread false"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-10T01:02Z 754.2K followers, 301.9K engagements

"NEW: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi said on October XX that he and the Syrian transitional government reached a preliminary agreement last week to integrate the SDF and Kurdish internal security forces into the states defense and interior ministries respectively. Other Key Takeaways: Iran reportedly turned on the automatic identification systems (AIS) of most of its oil tankers on October XX according to Tanker Trackers. This incident marks the first time that Iranian tankers have turned on their AIS signals since 2018. Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-14T23:17Z 754.2K followers, 34.6K engagements

"The Kremlin is attempting to stabilize its domestic gasoline market to offset the consequences of Ukraines long-strike campaign against refineries. Continued subsidies to the gasoline sector will increase costs on the Russian state"
X Link @TheStudyofWar 2025-10-13T02:15Z 754.2K followers, 72.5K engagements