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@gregorypcordell "A quick note that the Eagle Football Group entity formed in Cayman Islands was incorporated in Sep '24 and has indicatively been (since that date) the intended consolidating entity in the (unlikely) event an IPO materializes"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-18 22:57:53 UTC 3469 followers, 32.7K engagements

"There are a handful of new definitions to include reference to an (i) Override Agreement between agent Ares Capital Corp and holdco borrowers/pledgors EFH Bidco EFH Midco and EFH Holdings and (ii) Independent Director appointed in accordance w/ the Override Agreement"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-06-24 07:02:22 UTC 3452 followers, 1156 engagements

"As an aside Ares Capital Corp continues to carry PIK debt (12.3% to 19.0%) to EFH at or near cost as of XX Mar 2025 but Ares has edged down the fair value of ordinary shares in EFH to XX% of cost (31 Dec 24: XX% of cost; XX Mar 24: XX% of cost)"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-04-30 17:13:13 UTC 3453 followers, 19.7K engagements

"The most notable piece w.r.t. CF estimates is the net cash outlay for player registrations exceeding player net spend (by cost) by an estimated 129m (net cash: 149m; net cost: 19m). The spread is driven by net transfer installments payable of 142m that came due in 2024/25"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-07 04:13:00 UTC 3467 followers, XXX engagements

"Textor intends to reply today to Iconic's opposition of the TRO that was filed yesterday"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-25 17:03:22 UTC 3471 followers, 3141 engagements

"This thread provides estimates for Manchester Uniteds 2024/25 financials (P&L; investment; CF; debt) w/ a full Substack write-up forthcoming. Key P&L metric estimates: - Rev of 664m (YOY: +3m; +0.4%) - Adj EBITDA of 186m (+38m) - Pre-tax loss of 37m (improvement by 94m)"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:47 UTC 3471 followers, 18.7K engagements

"For the CFF estimate note that I assume no further repayment on revolving credit facilities (RCFs) after the 50m paydown on XX Apr 2025 disclosed in sub events to 3Q 2024/25 accts. However the club may have repaid further on RCFs prior to XX Jun 2025 (my ests imply capacity)"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:51 UTC 3454 followers, XXX engagements

"For net financial debt which isnt sensitive to RCF repayment assumptions I estimate a YOY increase by 49m to 522m. Based on RCF and cash figures I estimate on-hand liquidity decreased YOY by 87m to 257m at end-Jun 25"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:52 UTC 3471 followers, 19.2K engagements

"With Textor reiterating the need for equity to reduce acq debt a note that the rate on Series B Notes ( one-third of acq debt) has climbed from XX% to XX% (via embedded ste-ups) since origination. Based on historical trends we could see another jump in the next quarter or two"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-05-09 07:37:30 UTC 3453 followers, 8798 engagements

"Estimated revenue incr of 3m reflects: - Commercial +24m (sponsorship: +8m; retail/merch: +16m) - Broadcast -41m (UEFA: -22m; PL: -17m; other: -3m) - MD +20m (+5 home matches vs 2023/24) Note: Rev guidance of 660m to 670m was provided by club w/ 3Q 2024/25 accts"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:48 UTC 3455 followers, 1109 engagements

"Ares Capital Corp who are a lender to XX Holdco (Chelsea/Strasbourg) and Eagle Football Holdings (OL/Palace/RWDM/Botafogo) published FY24 accounts today. With respect to EFH the interest rate on the most subordinated PIK debt increased from XX% at XX Sep to XX% at XX Dec"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-02-05 16:13:23 UTC 3453 followers, 23.5K engagements

"For the CFO estimate note that I assume break-even WC movements (LTM 3Q 2024/25: 3m consumption). The notable estimated spread between adj EBITDA (186m) to CFO (123m) primarily driven by exceptional items (EtH & staff; Ashworth; restructuring) and net cash interest payments"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:51 UTC 3420 followers, XXX engagements

"Estimated adj EBITDA increase of 38m reflects estimated +3m revenue vs estimated -36m recurring cash expenses (wages: -55m; OOEs: +19m); estimated margin improvement from XXXX% to 28.0%. Note: Adj EBITDA guidance of 180m to 190m was provided by club w/ 3Q 2024/25 accts"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:48 UTC 3420 followers, XXX engagements

"Data in the preceding table is sourced from quarterly disclosures by Ares Capital Corp who are agent for EFH's debt arrangements and indicatively hold one-sixth of the debt issued"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-05-09 07:37:30 UTC 3453 followers, XXX engagements

"Chelsea FC Holdings issued 1000 shares for 339m on XX June 2025 (final day of financial year)"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-25 18:17:23 UTC 3471 followers, 159.9K engagements

"Net transfer debt at end-Mar '25 stood at 308m with 175m on net due within 1-yr: - Transfer payables: 403m total w/ 222m due w/in 1-yr - Transfer receivables: 95m total w/ 47m receivable w/in 1-yr"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-06-06 21:44:55 UTC 3467 followers, 2538 engagements

"Eagle Football Holdings (largest beneficial owner of CPFC; majority beneficial owner for OL Botafogo and RWDM) has reached XX months overdue on disclosure of financial accounts (w/ no intention to submit to CH). Also approaching X months overdue for its confirmation statement"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-04-30 17:13:12 UTC 3453 followers, 93.3K engagements

"Significant cash investment demands results in estimated CFO + CFI (i.e. CF excl financing) of negative 159m which would take the pre-financing outflow to 289m across 2022-2025"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:51 UTC 3420 followers, XXX engagements

"MUFCs net transfer debt stood at 309m at end-Mar XX w/ (a substantial) 175m due w/in one yr. Driven primarily by 4Q 2024/25 inv activity I est an incr to 341m at end-Jun XX w/ 186m due w/in one yr (although each lower if 4Q 2024/25 net pmts were higher than I modeled)"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:53 UTC 3467 followers, XXX engagements

"Attached is a table w/ PL distributions by season. For 2023/24: - Int'l (1351m) dom (1335m) for first time; - Total payouts up 67m (2781m to 2848m); note int'l equal up 154m vs int'l merit down 62m - Equal share move led to a decr in dispersion from 1.70x to 1.60x"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-02-06 19:57:27 UTC 3463 followers, 9885 engagements

"The affidavit notes that comments on the S-1 were received back from the SEC on XX July 2025. A potential IPO timetable of (prior to) end-Sep '25 is stated but that's hard to envision given prior similar declarations (i.e. w/in the next quarter or so) and general upheaval"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-24 04:03:14 UTC 3470 followers, 3636 engagements

"The letter delivered to the EFH Ltd BoD is among the attachments to the filing. The first couple pages are attached for reference"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-24 03:40:59 UTC 3471 followers, 26.2K engagements

"Estimated YOY +94m pre-tax result to a loss of 37m reflects an estimated (i) 28m adj EBIT improvement (ii) 16m decr in exceptional exp (iii) 8m incr in player sale profit and (iv) 42m decr in net fin costs (primarily driven by FX movements vis--vis unhedged USD debt)"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:49 UTC 3466 followers, XXX engagements

"On XX May 2025 EFH Bidco adopted revised Articles of Association - the day prior to the appointment of the restructuring expert as a Director"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-06-24 07:02:21 UTC 3452 followers, 6042 engagements

"Assuming no further repayments on RCFs post-Apr XX (which could be wrong) I est gross fin debt of 639m at end-Jun XX (YOY: +92m). The est incr is driven by higher usage on RCFs partially offset by the impact from GBP:USD movements YOY on USD-denominated debt (weakened USD)"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:52 UTC 3467 followers, XXX engagements

"Textor touts a $2bn equity valuation for EFH in his supporting affidavit (which is far different from the view of Ares who carried its commit equity position at below cost as of end-Mar '25). Also an interesting narrative put forth around the OL acquisition and his management"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-24 03:49:43 UTC 3471 followers, 6179 engagements

"Cash flow statement estimates: - CF from ops (CFO) of 123m (YOY: +37m) - CF from inv (CFI) an outflow of 282m (player: 229m; capex: 53m) - CF from fin (CFF) an inflow of 210m (equity: 80m; net borrowing: 130m) - Cash increase of 43m (note: est 8m adverse FX) to 117m"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:50 UTC 3466 followers, XXX engagements

"Estimated net fixed asset spend by cost of 332m across: - Player net spend of 277m (gross: 344m; net fees from sales: 66m); note that the estimate includes the Cunha signing - Infrastructure spend of 55m (primarily Carrington redevelopment)"
@gregorypcordell Avatar @gregorypcordell on X 2025-07-21 05:55:50 UTC 3467 followers, XXX engagements