[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@BenKizemchuk "I agree it's not rocket science which is why I'm confused by your perspective. Of the +$66b of new loans and leases created over the last month $20b was from "other". So the growth of "other" represents less than half of total growth. Given the trajectory over the last few months I expect the share of "other" should continue to shrink. So can you please take another shot at explaining what you mean by "credit growth is mostly within the financial system""
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-23 15:24:40 UTC 6297 followers, XX engagements

"A proprietary indicator which tracks positive momentum inflections has reached a trigger point. If the Nasdaq-100 maintains its current level through month-end the signal will activate. Historically when this indicator has triggered following a XX% market decline the subsequent performance has been compelling: Average 1-Year Return: +25.6% Median 1-Year Return: +22.6% Positive Return Frequency: XX% of occurrences This setup suggests a potentially favorable risk-reward profile should the signal confirm. $qqq $ndx"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-24 14:44:00 UTC 6306 followers, 1607 engagements

"You're in the first Inning of the Minsky Cycle. Credit growth is ramping but still flying under the radar for most people while those who do see it are still bearish. Classic textbook setup"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-24 11:00:08 UTC 6306 followers, 3895 engagements

"$qqq is right on target for the equal weight though I should note at this point there's a rather large divergence between 2009 path and the 2018 + 2020 paths. Should further note that Aug XX 2025 was an arbitrary end-date"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-15 21:14:29 UTC 6289 followers, 4916 engagements

"Not quite -- buried in the thread and my other work from april 2025 on here references why those specific rallies were indicated. Certain public and prop signals aligned pointing to a high confidence in a v-shaped rally that has since played out. Further from prior tweet: "The years 2009 2018 and 2020 were chosen to illustrate examples of short-term V-shaped "take-no-prisoners" breadth thrust rallies all occurring within the broader context of rising passive share and increasingly inelastic markets. In my view as time progresses the relevance of the 2018 episode diminishes. Instead I believe"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-24 12:57:31 UTC 6304 followers, XX engagements

"Innovation happens within the government sandbox I get into this idea in my next podcast appearance. 4Fs"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-23 00:11:53 UTC 6300 followers, 1379 engagements

"🏦Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey sees improvement in sentiment from trade-headline lows"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-21 14:39:08 UTC 6288 followers, XXX engagements

"🏡As I have been saying everything you think you know about the housing cycle is different now. Home sales aren't indicative of economic growth. "Buyers are now forced to rent longer as they compete for a limited number of homes. And rents are only rising. Rents rose XXX% over the past year putting additional pressure on would-be buyers to save a downpayment in a market where home prices also continue to climb." The starter home has effectively aged out. What used to be a new build on the edge of town is now a decades-old listing often smaller still pricey and receiving fierce competition."
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-24 13:46:00 UTC 6306 followers, 1358 engagements

"Tariffs (via front-running inventory and warehousing costs) raise prices. Forces lower income cohort to borrow consumer loans up. Life goes on. It's that simple folks"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-24 11:29:00 UTC 6306 followers, XXX engagements

"What the central bank of central banks thinks you think about CBDCs"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-22 20:08:03 UTC 6297 followers, XXX engagements

"@Dr_Gingerballs @BobEUnlimited Commercial real estate just went positive y/y. The biggest 2022/2023 boogeyman on the block is accelerating. I think thats a pretty clear sign"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-23 22:16:20 UTC 6297 followers, XXX engagements

"Apartment vacancies are at all-time highs. Why are we still measuring shelter inflation using empty units no one wants to live in If your inflation basket is meant to reflect real life shouldnt it evolve with actual demand If you champion TruFlation because it reflects real life then real-life inflation is showing up in single-family housing. Thats where real people are competing stretching budgets and feeling the squeeze"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-19 10:20:51 UTC 6300 followers, XXX engagements

"1) I wasn't making a case that bank lending was federal policy -- only making a counterpoint to your case for a negative growth shock. Although given this admin's insistence on lowering policy rate and banking reform (via SLR) that argument is available if only tangential to my point here. 2) Even after subtracting NDFI from Loans and Leases the total amount of credit creation still dwarfs tariffs collection. As of July X $72billion in loans and leases - NDFI vs $28b monthly run rate of tariffs. That's a net +$44b per month o economy. Can you please explain how a negative growth shock should"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-23 13:18:32 UTC 6306 followers, 1562 engagements

"Econ bears fixate on economic gains accruing to the rich who have a lower marginal propensity to consume. True but irrelevant. The rich may spend a smaller share of income but their incomes are so large that their absolute dollar value of consumption dominates. The top two income quintiles regularly account for over half of consumption. GDP doesnt care about MPC. It only cares about total dollars spent"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-24 18:43:00 UTC 6306 followers, 1206 engagements

"Nominal GDP targeting was once fringe. Now the Fed is publishing papers (today) saying its optimal in a world of inequality and credit frictions. NGDP targeting is baked in. The 4Fs is playing out as described. Bullard + DiCecios latest:"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-22 20:18:03 UTC 6297 followers, 1315 engagements

"M2 includes retail money market funds. The interest income earned on those MMFs doesn't separately count toward M2 but it contributes to the growth of MMF balances which are part of M2. You are correct treasuries are not included in m2. Retail mmf growing by XX% y/y suggests most/all interest income getting reinvested to MMF"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-22 18:38:20 UTC 6296 followers, XXX engagements

"If you want to do a fuzzy overlay of the above in context of major sentiment resets indicated below a few results stick out: Feb 1991 +38% June 2009 +18% April 2020 +54% April 2023 +32%"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-24 15:53:02 UTC 6306 followers, XXX engagements

"As requested here's the chart subtracting all Other Loans and Leases. Same story: +$45b of credit creation vs -$28b of tariffs. Still no negative shock. Not only that but that 13wk moving average looks far more stable and continues to show the recent inflection higher. Expect the net to grow"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-23 13:35:41 UTC 6306 followers, 2853 engagements

"Updating my prior idea on credit growth in Loans and Leases offsetting tariffs money contraction 👇"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-23 13:23:11 UTC 6299 followers, XXX engagements

"re medicaid. not exactly. I remain skeptical that 10mm XX% of the 20mm people on medicaid are about to go uninsured. The work requirements are light only affect a subset of covered. Declare self-employment to pass (hello 1099k-ers). SNAP will continue already has work req. medicaid vs care reimbursements are likely to get gamed via rural fund by states to providers. provider taxes potentially a near-wash. absolutely not getting into the math on that saturday morning lol. Essentially states will tax hospitals to boost medicaid fund via federal match. Cutting provider taxes may shrink state"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-19 14:44:32 UTC 6306 followers, 1322 engagements

"@alphaporgs @enochhowl A wealth overhang is created by fiscal money creation supporting demand meeting a contracting supply of goods. Money that needs a home. If the tariffs are unlawful about $240Billion is injected into corps in one shot via tax refund"
@BenKizemchuk on X 2025-07-11 10:31:00 UTC 6289 followers, XX engagements