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@cwjones89 "First Trump Very Much Does Not Want This to Happen. Expect heavy US pressure on Israel to only respond to small attacks proportionately. Exception could be if Hamas successfully captures IDF soldiers or kills a large number of civilians. Hamas may try to avoid doing that"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9422 followers, XX engagements

"And that was expected. The purpose of UNSC 1701 was never to be implemented. It was to allow Israel to make a face-saving withdrawal from Lebanon. On another level it worked. Hezbollah took enough damage in the war that they kept the border quiet"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9420 followers, XXX engagements

"Right now Hamas has mostly stated they have no intention of following (3). Hamas gunmen are rounding up political opponents in the streets. Trump has indicated that he has no intention of making them stop and even suggested he approved these actions"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9422 followers, XX engagements

"I'm guessing that it is since Trump wouldn't be visiting Egypt and Israel for a theatrical give-me-a-Nobel tour if Netanyahu was planning to re-start the offensive next weekend once the last living hostage is out and Hamas refuses to disarm"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-11T16:57Z 9423 followers, XXX engagements

"Local X journalist doesn't think Hutus mocked Tutsis after the Rwandan genocide"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T03:18Z 9419 followers, 1170 engagements

"4) Further IDF withdrawals will be dependent on Hamas demilitarization. (1) and (2) have mostly been completed. These are the frontlines:"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9422 followers, XX engagements

"Netanyahu approved the Trump plan because it conditioned IDF withdrawal on Hamas disarmament. The latter may not happen but the ceasefire doesn't involve Israel giving up all leverage in the Gaza Strip and therefore isn't a return to the pre-10/7 status quo"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9420 followers, XXX engagements

"There are too many variables here: Annexation or two state solution What of the clans of the West Bank (esp. Hebron) or pressure brought by the Abraham Accords partners. Will Israel release Marwan Barghouti Will Hamas attempt a violent takeover Settler violence escalates"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9422 followers, XXX engagements

"2) A frozen conflict. Hamas does not disarm and the IDF does not withdraw further from Gaza. Hamas steals foreign aid to maintain its rule but has trouble importing weapons. Internal opposition means that Gaza formerly a black hole for Israeli intelligence is now infiltrated"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9422 followers, XX engagements

"All in all it's kind of incredible how little westerners know about Rwanda besides the word "genocide.""
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T17:26Z 9422 followers, XXX engagements

"So there are three possible outcomes: 1) Hamas refuses to disarm and the war restarts soon. Hamas moves more strongly against anti-Hamas Gazan militias and Israel steps in to defend them. Hamas attacks IDF units destroying tunnels. I view this as slightly less likely"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9422 followers, XX engagements

"2) Hezbollah would disarm. 3) UNIFIL peacekeepers would deploy to disarm Hezbollah. None of this happened except (1). Hezbollah did not disarm and entrenched themselves further. UNIFIL deployed but did nothing"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:35Z 9420 followers, XXX engagements

"This was how he negotiated the Abraham Accords: By going around and asking moderate Sunni states "what's your price" for diplomatic recognition of Israel. No higher ideals here. Morocco's price was US recognition of their claim to the W. Sahara. The US paid. Etc"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9422 followers, XXX engagements

"Alright here's my thread of expanded ceasefire thoughts. The big question analysts should be asking: Is the Trump ceasefire plan another UNSC 1701 First a review: UNSC 1701 (2006) ended the Second Lebanon War. According to this resolution: 1) IDF would withdraw from Lebanon"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:35Z 9419 followers, 1146 engagements

"With Hamas parading uniformed men in the streets again and all the reports of arrests of dissidents I suspect we're going to find out in a week or two if Trump's 20-point plan for Hamas' disarmament is another UNSC 1701 designed to never be implemented"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-11T16:51Z 9423 followers, XXX engagements

"@IterIntellectus Breaking news: A broken clock was right twice in one day. AGI is near"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-15T20:35Z 9419 followers, XX engagements

"So is the Trump ceasefire plan another UNSC 1701 Right now all indications are that it is. According to the plan we are to see: 1) Prisoner exchange. 2) IDF withdrawal to a phase X line before hostage release. 3) Hamas disarms and gives up power"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9420 followers, XXX engagements

"Frozen conflicts end when larger geopolitical shifts change the underlying incentives which froze them in the first place. In Gaza that change will come from the West Bank. Mahmoud Abbas turns XX next month. When he dies the power struggle for the West Bank will be intense"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9420 followers, XXX engagements

"3) Final option is a full IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip without a corresponding Hamas disarmament. I find this less likely. Israel has been clear from the start that a return to the pre 10/7 status quo is unacceptable. This is what sunk the previous Biden ceasefire plans"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9422 followers, XX engagements

"Cross-border attacks (common between 2000-06) ceased entirely until 10/8/2023. Meanwhile Israeli intelligence spent the next XX years gathering thorough intelligence on Hezbollah that enabled the stunning military success against the group in 2024"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9422 followers, XXX engagements

"Conflicts can remain frozen for a long time before one side decisively wins. The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict remained frozen for XX years. Transnistria is still a frozen conflict so is Georgia. Netanyahu's cabinet may have calculated that this is the best they can hope for"
X Link @cwjones89 2025-10-13T18:36Z 9419 followers, XXX engagements