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@AnthPB "@annotote re "today's OpenAI needing to slow down because unlucky winner/cash burn": OpenAI says it will burn $115B thru 2029 $80B higher than projected in 2025q1 losses expected to peak in 2028 followed by profitability in 2030"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-09-06T17:05Z 3398 followers, XXX engagements

"@S_curvecap regardless in btwn bear case and bull case is base case in which $gddy: GARP HSD/LDD ARPU customer growth inflecting up 2025h2 (after strategic shedding low-value users) $3B buyback (after fully diluted shares -XX% since 2022) CAC advantage (60% direct traffic)"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-09-10T04:23Z 3397 followers, XX engagements

"@annotote too big to fail is Sam Altman's solution to OpenAI's AI armsrace competitive disadvantage (subscale/no balance sheet/etc) "now yous can't leave": $msft $13B+ $sftby $500B $hxscl 900k DRAM wafers mnthly $orcl $300B+ $nvda $100B $amd $45B COGS #tbtf"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-07T03:52Z 3398 followers, XXX engagements

"here's future expected funding mix for AI datacenter capex ($2.9T 2025-28) which y'all already knew was going to evolve to heavier debt composition after $meta Hyperion; $orcl; Aligned Data Centers; etc: #VC #PE #ABS"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-16T18:07Z 3397 followers, XXX engagements

"an offseason banger: the NBA Paint Peter Rogers Celtics logo/jersey redesign crossover event"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-08-08T03:03Z 3397 followers, XXX engagements

"@dylan522p y'all building @SemiAnalysis_ into Costar $csgp but for fabs (and datacenters) instead of CRE. #realestate"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-08-30T02:32Z 3398 followers, XXX engagements

"@S_curvecap while $gddy bear case includes AI decel there's also a potential future for GoDaddy Airo (generative domain logo website content social media) handing-off to automated $meta Advantage+ and $googl PMax (ads/CAC) as the killer agentic flow $wix"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-09-10T04:20Z 3398 followers, XXX engagements

"/3 in sum AI relative capital stack for US vs China: X US has huge lead in total capital ($109B private investment was 12x China's in 2024 and $471B was 4x over last decade) X US almost entirely equity funding cont'd below"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-09-18T22:47Z 3397 followers, XXX engagements

"Utilities trade mainstreamed "electricity prices surging" and "datacenter energy-intensity" but energy seems like less AI derivative than main event: "supply chain has been largely solved power has become the biggest bottleneck" $googl $eqt $vst)"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-03T05:00Z 3397 followers, 1130 engagements

"@annotote .see also:"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-08T13:44Z 3398 followers, XXX engagements

"@annotote /1 .imho @sama hyping SK Hynix/Samsung deals and energy solutions ("give us a few monthsthere is a plan") means OpenAI will announce: X big model memory increase X leaning-in to MOE/router #ai"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-08T19:00Z 3398 followers, XXX engagements

".the bright side of twttr 👇😊"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-11T02:13Z 3398 followers, XXX engagements

"Georgia's Kirby Smart faking and lying about calling a timeout ("I was clapping") bad sportsmanship and bad football karma for the rest of his career sorry I don't make the rules. #UGAvsAUB"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-12T03:31Z 3397 followers, 3560 engagements

"biggest inhibitor to AI productivity atm: "can't continue conversations after the context window if I am working interactively on a projectsuddenly being cut off and being forced to start a new chat" "context is the new RAM" #memory"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-13T14:16Z 3397 followers, XXX engagements

"minding context of abundant reserves regime banking system update: deposit to reserve ratio: 6.24x (highest since SVB and pandemic) 🔼 deposits: $18.5T (highest since SVB) 🔽 reserves: $3T (lowest since SVB and pandemic) 🔽 RRP: $4.124B (lowest since pandemic) 🔼 TGA: $807B (kinda normalized amidst government shutdown) demand deposits and MMF's displacing CD's and RRP $xlf $kre $kbe #banks"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-14T15:15Z 3398 followers, XXX engagements

"icymi the perception-reality gap in US federal government's consolidated aggregate gold holdings: ⚖ volume: 261.5M troy oz (8133.46 tons) 🤏 carrying book value: $11.04B ($42.22/oz statutory price) 😲 mark-to-market fair market value: $1.14T ($4344/oz FMV) $gld $gc_f"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-16T21:39Z 3398 followers, XXX engagements

"update on my spicy 2025 prediction #2 how it's going ytd: ✅ "rotation into global/international equities": $acwx +14.3pp outperformance vs $spy $efa +13.2pp " " " ✅ "US forward growth expectations rerate lower": fw sales; FCF; EPS consensus estimates all down GDP growth halved ✅ "relative valuation multiples recouple 🤏" ✅ "dollar weakening reverses foreign currency headwinds": $dxy -XX% #fx"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-16T21:57Z 3397 followers, XXX engagements

"twas a Twolves sleeper cell the whole time 😜 Pete what a joy this has been for Boston (I've bought and gifted your designs) "don't cry because it's over smile because it happened": "after designing almost XXX celtics jerseys the last X years finally gonna take a break & do victory jerseys for a new teammy local minnesota timberwolves""
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-17T02:53Z 3397 followers, XXX engagements

"/1 "The question for every marketplaceis whether there is overspend now in the advertising monetization model. In a perfectly efficient transaction auction model I describe overspend will go away because math is clear." wasted/redundant ad spend might wane fm agentic AI shopping auctions but Jevon's Paradox rebound effect from productivity increase like going from the "half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half" era of impression-based ads to the more measurable performance-based era #AI #ecommerce $amzn $wmt"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-17T06:00Z 3398 followers, XX engagements

"/2 advertising by modular 3P sellers (e.g. Thrasio) competing for conversions on 3rd party marketplaces (Amazon) won't go away when AI agents (chatGPT) start holding auctions at every point of sale if anything ecommerce has taught us that perfectly substitutable goods are exceedingly rare even among the purest of CPG brands and even then there are other deciding factors nvm all the highly differentiated products/services $amzn $wmt #OpenAI"
X Link @AnthPB 2025-10-17T06:03Z 3398 followers, XX engagements