[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@StarbuckUA "Agree on current processing leverage and relationships. But its pricing power not a permanent veto. The wedge is already in: MP/VAC magnets deliver in 2526 Energy Fuels is separating NdPr now Iluka/Lynas add feedstock OEM offtakes + FEOC rules make projects bankable recycling ramps and Dy/Tbfree grades cut the hardest constraints. Net effect: commodity leverage decays on an industrial clock while the core chokepoints (EDA/litho service/firmware/cloud) remain structural. Appreciate the thoughtful thread lets check back in a year and measure tons vs. talk"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-11T15:37Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"It isnt a double standard; its a difference in means. U.S. controls gate dualuse capability (EUV/EDA/AIcompute cloud service) through transparent export law and allied coordination. Beijings hit back is coercion: commodity squeezes extraterritorial license demands on foreign firms raids/exitbans and selective retaliation to force political concessions. One is a defensive filter on warfighting tech; the other weaponizes interdependence and contract law. Thats why boardrooms and allies treat the former as security policyand the latter as aggressionand why Europe is now gating Chinese control"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T07:17Z XXX followers, 1421 engagements

"Youre conflating two different races. China can probe Nvidia/Broadcom all it wants but parity isnt achieved by paperworkEUV/HighNA remains a Western monopoly advanced EDA/service/cloud are permissioned and DUV workarounds dont scale at competitive yields. Thats why Beijing leans on commodities and ownership not the switches. On rare earths we dont need a massive new chain to break leveragejust enough allied separation metal/alloy first magnet lines plus recycling and Dy/Tbfree substitutions (SmCo/induction/ferrites) to turn a veto into price noise. That 1836month ramp is already underway in"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-13T17:46Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@MichaelAArouet We didnt outsource defense; we outsourced chemistry. Easy to reshore with money and rules. What China cant buy back is ASML service calls or Synopsys licenses. Thats the scoreboard"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-11T12:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"2018 started the trade war is a nursery rhyme. The fight began when Beijing made market access contingent on forced JV IP surrender and statesubsidized dumping. Retaliate how exactlyby taxing commodities while the free world still holds the switches (USD clearing EUV/HighNA EDA/service HBM supply cloud) The RMB is a rounding error in global payments FDI is fleeing youth joblessness is buried and supply chains are walking to India/Vietnam/Mexico. Call it China vs the world if you like; the world will price reciprocity keep the keys and let you enjoy your price spikes without the tools"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T16:48Z XXX followers, 1311 engagements

"@diegussc @D162Michele Chinese despotism less bellicose Tell that to Hong Kong the South China Sea and daily Taiwan incursions. Less noise less aggression"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T06:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Russia barred U.S. carriers after it launched a full-scale invasion and got sanctioned. Chinese airlines kept the Siberian shortcut while ours detourthis simply levels it: same sky or no U.S. gates. Not self-righteous just reciprocity. If you love Moscows war map enjoy the shortcut; the market stays here"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T06:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"You bring up Iraq and Libya like theyre trophies. Great. But heres the difference: those wars ended debts got paid architecture rebuilt. Russias war is ongoing unpunished and scaledits not regime change its conquest. If you want history books look at maps. Watch them bleed east"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T08:15Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Calling the Dutch move stealing Chinese business gets the facts backward. Nexperia is Chinaowned but Dutchbased dependent on EU/US tools EDA service banks and dollar clearing. The Enterprise Chamber put it under direct Dutch oversight removed the Wingtech CEO and installed a courtappointed director to fix governance/exportcontrol/IPleak risk so the firm keeps shipping and avoids an EntityList fate that would actually strand European lines. That isnt bowing to Washingtonits Europe enforcing its own FDI/FEOC rules: commodities and capex are global but the switches (management IP export/service"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T16:59Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Russia has no reason to attack Poland would be news to the Poles whove endured GRU bombings and poisonings across Europe airspace violations weaponized migration via Belarus drones crossing the border and open Russian planning for the Suwaki corridor while Kaliningrad bristles with Iskanders. Moscow issued written demands to roll NATO back to 1997 and is running Phase X probes along the Baltic rim. NATO aid is lawful collective selfdefense; the only side that escalated was the one that invaded its neighbor and now tests alliance seams. Deterrence isnt provocation; its how you keep the next"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T17:05Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Deflation isnt a coupon; its a tourniquet. In a debtheavy system it lifts the real value of mortgages and factory loans crushes revenues freezes wages and forces firms to dump output abroad to survive. Thats why Beijings CPI and PPI slides come with export gluts and price wars not healthy demand. The West shouldnt wish for Chinas deflationwe should firewall against importing it: FEOC rules antidumping and reshoring so Beijings demand problem doesnt become our industrial funeral"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T19:04Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The clip youre bragging with is Long Beach California not Shanghaiand your math is just as fake. Shanghai did 51M TEU; all U.S. ports combined move well north of 60M TEU. And container counts arent leverage anyway: the U.S./EU/Japan still gate the switches that make those boxes movedollar clearing P&I insurance classification GPS engines chips and service. Nice video theft though; when your best flex is an American port youve already told on yourself"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T07:55Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@ChristinaRicar3 @pati_marins64 Hard yesmoonshot no. The choke is bankability not physics: with 10yr offtakes + FEOC separationmetalmagnet lines stand up in 1836 months (and MP/VAC/Energy Fuels/Lynas/Iluka are already building)"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T04:29Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"PPP buys haircuts in Ufa not jet engines. War inputs price in dollars/euros: by nominal size Russia is $2T with a $400B budget; NATO economies are $50T. NATO $60T debt is gibberish (NATO borrows nothing; US/EU issue debt in their own reserve currencies). Russias low debt = no market2022 default + capital controls. And its not 4th by PPP eithercloser to 6th"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T09:16Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@thebl4ckhand @sashameetsrus LMAO imagine flexing a ruble held up by capital controls oil blood money and financial necromancy. Your economys a Weekend at Bernies reboot but hey the corpse still twitches right"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T11:51Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"I dont slander China. I admire itMo Yans Red Sorghum and Wang Anyis Song of Everlasting Sorrow are why. My quarrel is with the Partystate thats trying to drag the country back to Maoera reflexes: muzzling Hong Kong locking up Xinjiang menacing Taiwan and bankrolling Russias mass murder. Loving Chinese culture doesnt require loving Xis politics. Power that fears books and truth always ends up fearing its own peopleand that never ends well"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T19:02Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@DrDillwood @thesiriusreport Thanks Darren. Thats the core asymmetry: commodities swing prices; permissioned stacks gate capability. Price spikes end chokepoints dontand policy should be written to that reality. Appreciate the read. 🙏"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-13T05:01Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Safeguarding peace by choking REEs is the same move Beijing tried in 2010 against Japan and the WTO struck those export quotas down in 2014 as illegal discrimination. What youve rolled out now isnt international practice; its extraterritorial leverage that claims a veto over any product made with Chineseorigin REEs/equipment while punishing disfavored end userscoercion not nonproliferation. The free world still holds the switches the PLA actually needs (EDA/EUV tools service cloud dollarclearing) and it will answer commodity blackmail the same way as last time: stockpile recycle and stand up"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T19:36Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"This isnt diplomacy; its bargaining through terror: trade territory for lower energy risk. The antidote is cheaper than appeasement: layered air defense long-range interdiction and maritime insurance enforcement that strangles revenue. Do that and the Kremlin stops negotiating headlines and starts negotiating exits"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T14:12Z XXX followers, 3561 engagements

"@Alex_Oloyede2 Ancestors conquered it. By that logic Rome owns France and the Golden Horde owns Muscovy. Kyiv wrote Russkaya Pravda; Muscovy rose collecting tribute for the khan. History isnt your deed; the UN Charter isand it has Ukraines name on it"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T04:10Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Reckless isnt helping Ukraine cut the fuel and rails that power a war of mass abductionits letting the Kremlin reload under a peace press release. Long-range hits on refineries and depots mean fewer missiles launched fewer funerals and fewer months of war. Call it what you want; its the adult version of foreign policy: make aggression unaffordable and watch Moscows empire cosplay run out of diesel"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T23:17Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Internal is just what empires say when outside pressure finally cracks the walls. 1917s collapse followed battlefield defeathence BrestLitovsk and the loss of Finland Poland and the Baltics. 1991s collapse followed losing the Cold WarWarsaw Pact gone XX republics out. Whether the tombstone reads bullet or sepsis the patient is dead: if your state disintegrates and your borders shrink thats an existential loss"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-14T06:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"This isnt victimhood its escalation control. The U.S. built a small-yard high-fence to starve military compute; Beijing answered with a price spike on inputs the West can (and is) duplicating outside China. One side can brick an advanced fab with a license update; the other side can make magnets cost more. Thats not warits asymmetry with better PR"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-11T11:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Existential is doing a lot of hiding here. The Russian state has lost existentially twice in the last century alone: 191721 the empire collapsed signed BrestLitovsk and bled out Poland Finland and the Baltics; 1991 the USSR dissolved Russia shed XX republics the Warsaw Pact and X million km. Thats not getting bigger its amputation. Your Sweden/France chestthumps are 18th19thcentury coalition wins; against Germany in WWI Russia lost the war and the regime. In WWII the state survived with Allied industry (LendLease) and then spent XX years building an empire it forfeited in XX. Today isnt NATO"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-14T05:33Z XXX followers, 1015 engagements

"@JayinKyiv Exportparity pricing + weak ruble = immediate pump shock; trucking/agri eat it first food CPI follows"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T14:27Z XXX followers, 1005 engagements

"Beijings leverage evaporates the moment you step off commodities and into permissioned stacks. The free world still holds the switchesEDA EUV service firmware keys cloud dollarclearingso Chinas power shows up as price spikes not vetoes. Doing business there is easy only if you accept the terms: IP surrender data exposure and political compliance. The real clarity is this: access to our market and tech should be priced at reciprocity; if it isnt symmetrical we gate it and starve what they dont own"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T23:14Z XXX followers, 1026 engagements

"@Not_JPod_art Ukraine brings soldiers industry and a reason for Europe to exist. Orban brings Gazprom speeches. History knows which one scales"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-07T12:44Z XXX followers, 1811 engagements

"The only state that disappears when pressure rises is the one propped up by riot police and Kremlin subsidies. Minsks mouth is doing Moscows psyops because meters of mud cost them battalions of men. Ukraine isnt negotiating under pressureits creating it: refineries burning logistics degrading Black Sea shipping reopened. Belarus is a rail yard not a power; if Alyaksandr drags it further in he inherits Russias sanctions without Russias depth. Keep squeezing and the regime that vanishes first wont be in Kyiv"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T15:26Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@Avid_thing_doer @DlugajJuly Russia slapped back in 2014 after signing Budapest to respect Ukraines borders. The only provocation was a neighbor refusing to be a colony. Deterrence is what you meet after you break intwice"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T05:01Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Glory to an army running on prison battalions North Korean shells and Iranian drones Your heroics are ICC warrants deported children looted washing machines and a shrinking Black Sea Fleet. Keep calling Ukrainians canceryoure just writing the exhibit labels for the tribunal. Well do this the Trump way too: squeeze the cash flows arm Ukraine and make Kremlin propaganda the only thing still advancing"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-14T16:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Fairness isnt letting Beijing keep a Siberian cheat code while Moscow wages a genocidal war and Beijing bankrolls it with overflight fees. U.S. carriers are banned from Russia; yours arentthats not competition its a subsidy. New rule: dont fly the invaders corridor and still waltz into U.S. gates. Shortcut or market. Pick"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T07:00Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"That X% line is a magicians coin trick. What bites isnt the flow its the chokepoints: the U.S.+EU+JP+KR+TW buy roughly a third of Chinas exports and control XX% of the switchesASML/Applied/Lam Synopsys/Cadence metrology/resists cloud dollar clearing compliance shipping insurance payments. Those are the profit and capability pipes. Close the switches and the X% wont save you; the line goes dark"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T19:08Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@EngineersThink @ricwe123 Yes to negotiation no to amnesia. If Beijing wants better than Russia demonstrate it with verifiable pressure on Moscow first. Then well buy whats buyable under fair ruleswhile highrisk tech stays fenced. Your move Beijing"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-14T00:10Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Fair take on talent but headcount leverage. China can graduate battalions of engineers and still not turn RMB into a true settlement currency or conjure ASML service keys Synopsys licenses or hyperscale cloud accessthose are permissioned trustbased networks with decades of lockin. Altfinance still reconverges to dollars for commodities hedging and compliance and software leadership is an ecosystem gameCUDA/EDA/toolchains model weights and cloudwhere you can fork code but not adoption. The win state is simple: the free world uses money + rules to stand up a nonChina magnet chain in 2436 months"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-11T13:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Collapse without Chinese REEs Please. The West is already standing up non-China separation metal magnet lines and recycling and it can pay a premium while it rewires. China cant buy substitutes for Synopsys/Cadence EUV service or dollar clearing. Thats the whole game: price pain vs. power lossand the power switches arent in Beijings hand"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-11T12:14Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Frances highway concessions werent during an invasion and are now widely criticized for turning into private rent extraction. Sell the highways sell the rails is pawnshop geopolitics. You dont liquidate a country under fireyou make the arsonist pay. Fire-sale math in a war zone = 1030 on the dollar often to Russian front companies. Thats not prudence; thats the Kremlins shopping list"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-09T20:11Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@sashameetsrus Sweetheart I stopped taking my meds when I realized people like you were allowed to vote. Now I just rely on caffeine vengeance and the collapse of the ruble"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T11:41Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"BRICS is a press conference not a systemno common tariff no reserve currency no clearinghouse no mutual defense. The NDB raises money in dollars and euros; India and China trade barbs on a live border; Saudi/UAE still clear oil in dollars; Russia/Iran are sanctioned. Waiting to join is optics; the only queue that matters is for settlement and reserves where the dollar still dominates and the RMB barely registers. Slogans wont replace plumbing"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-15T16:52Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"To be fair Chinas window is the next 2436 monthsuntil allied separation + magnet lines (MP/VAC/Energy Fuels/Lynas/Iluka + recycle) turn its REE veto into price noise; by 2628 that lever fades while our compute chokepoints (EDA/EUV service/cloud/FDPR) stay locked for the decade. To prolong the window Beijing will juggle selective licenses RMB invoicing and preemptive offtakes in Africa/ASEAN; our answer is to preempt those offtakes hardwire FEOC + long offtakes and keep the compute switches gated again commodity leverage decays capability control endures"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-11T19:07Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Cool infographic. Wrong diagnosis. The bottleneck isnt kilograms of rare earths; its trusted magnet-grade capacityseparation metal alloy sintered NdFeB/SmCo motorunder our rules. China can posture with export controls but thats a price spike not a veto. We kill the leverage by finishing an allied magnet chain (US/EU/JPN/AUS) end-to-end locking it with 10-year offtakes and price floors FEOC bans for defense magnet passports for traceability and large-scale magnet-to-magnet recycling of manufacturing scrap/HDDs. On the engineering side keep bleeding heavy REEs with grain-boundary diffusion swap"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-11T11:53Z XXX followers, 4302 engagements

"Yes the West has ugly historyand teaches it prosecutes it and changes because of it. Beijings line lectures the 19th century while running 21stcentury internment coerced labor exit bans and a press that cant write those words. Shut the Uyghur camps free Hong Kongs prisoners end censorshipthen come talk morality"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-13T04:55Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Go dig trenches isnt an argument its a tell. Every choice issues a receipt: cause meets effect. If you spend your voice mocking Ukraine and laundering Moscows invasion expect the consequences that follow public advocacy. Russia lit this war; it will carry the billwith compound interest. When accountability arrives remember which side of the ledger you picked pal. Mute"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-13T05:05Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Putin just axed the fuel damper until May XX. That was the bribe that kept truckers quiet. Without it: prices jump to exportparity refineries chase export margin and the budget diverts cash to shells. The Kremlin just traded its social contract for artillery: war now arrives at the pump"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T14:28Z XXX followers, 1788 engagements

"Rare earths arent rare and theyre not a veto. The real switches are EUV/EDA/service/cloud; Beijings REE squeeze buys months of price pain not control. The nonChina chain is already standing upmines & separation (MP/Lynas/Iluka/Energy Fuels) EU/US magnet plants (VAC/Noveon/Solvay/RETEC) plus magnettomagnet recyclingwhile engineering trims Dy/Tb with heavyfree grades and swaps to SmCo/induction where heat lives. Add FEOC bans and long offtakes and Chinas leverage decays on an industrial clock. We dont need to live without rare earthsjust without Chinese permission"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-13T07:16Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Russia is Hamas with a flag a budget and nuclear blackmail. Hamass charter says erase Israel; Moscows doctrine and propaganda say erase Ukraine (deUkrainization forced Russification deported children the ICC warrants). Hamas fires into cities to terrorize civilians; Russia builds a winter missile campaign to freeze civilians bombs stations theaters hospitals and parks and parks artillery in apartment blocks and at a nuclear plant so people become shields. Hamas trades in hostages; Russia runs mass abductions filtration and prisonerforpropaganda swaps. Both flout ceasefires use terror as"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-14T15:36Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Reciprocity is a cute euphemism for asymmetry. Washington and its allies sit on the choke pointsEDA (Synopsys/Cadence/Siemens) lithography (ASMLs EUV) plus FDPR reachso BIS can starve Chinas advanced compute no matter how you route it. Beijings reply is rare-earth licensing that raises prices while the West lines up non-China supply; thats commodity pain not capability denial"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-11T11:00Z XXX followers, 2330 engagements

"Time will prove it cuts both ways. Behind the marble stations is a balance sheet: property/LGFV debt negative FDI youth joblessnessand hard chokepoints you cant slogan away: no EUV/HighNA no toptier EDA/service gated cloud/FDPR RMB still a rounding error in reserves. Those outdated Western tools are IP standards and dollar clearingand they still fence the frontier. As for relative freedom: ours means you can call leaders fools without a knock at X a.m. then vote them out. Systems that let citizens say the emperor has no clothes fix their mistakes; systems that jail the tailor split at the"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T19:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Chinas miracle is a balancesheet not a productivity story: a property/infra bubble (LGFV debt in the trillions) collapsing demographics net FDI turning negative youth unemployment so bad they stopped publishing it. Leading economic power The U.S. is still larger in nominal GDP by trillions and XX richer per capita; the dollar clears global trade while the RMB is a rounding error. And the innovation line meets hard chokepoints: no EUV/HighNA no toptier EDA or tool service and restricted AI compute/cloud. Thats why Beijing reaches for commodity levers (rare earths) and exit bans not markets."
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T15:29Z XXX followers, 10.5K engagements

"Shadow fleet doesnt exist is a slogan; the ship logs say otherwise. Since 2022 Kpler/Vortexa/Lloyds List have tallied roughly 6001100 elderly tankers snapped up via shell SPVs reflagged to lenient registries stripped of IGclub insurance and routed through STS hubs off Ceuta Kalamata/Laconian Gulf the Canaries and the Atlantic with routine AIS dark gaps/spoofing. That pattern didnt appear in normal Urals trade prewar; it emerged only after reputable owners and insurers exited. Regulators treat it as real because it is: OFAC has sanctioned pricecap violators including dozens of SCFlinked ships"
X Link @StarbuckUA 2025-10-12T19:51Z XXX followers, XX engagements