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@TimmerFidelity "Gold is seeing this movie play out from a mile away and has replaced the long bond as the bond hedge of choice. A high Sharpe Ratio with uncorrelated returns to both equities and bonds is about as good as an asset class can get. And the fact that it is difficult to own in a mutual fund and largely dismissed by institutional investors only helps sustain the rally"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-09T19:00Z 204.9K followers, 35.7K engagements

"The same thing happened three decades ago when then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan raised rates by XXX bps in 1994 producing at that time the biggest bond bear market in history. He landed the plane successfully gave the markets back a few of his rate hikes and unleashed one of the most powerful bull markets in history driven by the internet boom that later turned into a tech bubble. When Greenspan stopped raising rates in late 1994 the 5-year CAPE ratio was14.7x. Six years later it peaked at 31.1x. Current Fed Chair Jay Powell has also landed the plane after raising rates XXX bps in 2022 and"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-14T18:00Z 204.9K followers, 49K engagements

"In terms of fund flows equity flows have been positive for some time now as one would expect following a three year XX% gain but I dont see anything here that really stands out. /2"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-15T15:44Z 204.9K followers, 4221 engagements

"If we are entering a regime of easy fiscal policy amplified by easy monetary policy then it seems likely that the dollar will continue to erode as the dominant reserve currency. We only need to look back to the 1960s to see what happened the last time"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-10T14:00Z 204.9K followers, 17K engagements

"Option activity is elevated although even here one could argue that the signal only works at bearish extremes. /4"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-15T15:44Z 204.9K followers, 10.7K engagements

"With both the cyclical and secular bull markets in full swing driven by the AI boom and now supported by an easier Fed the analog to the late 1990s is unmistakable. That analog is shown below and continues to track well. Like the last three years the 1994-2000 period produced relentless multiple expansion until things were taken to an extreme during the blow-off phase in 1998-2000. Exhibit A in the current analog are the non-profitable tech stocks which have lifted out of a 3-year base. Whether this phase of ebullience becomes a bubble is something we will only know in hindsight"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-09T14:00Z 204.9K followers, 20.3K engagements

"The year so far has been one in which most asset classes have advanced the tariff tantrum in April notwithstanding. Out of the two dozen that I track almost all of them are up over the past XX weeks (except for the US dollar)"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-08T15:00Z 204.9K followers, 10.7K engagements

"The question about a fiscally submissive Fed centers around the question of who will fund the ever-growing mountain of debt in the US and around the world. The jaws between the debt and the Feds Treasury holdings continues to widen. If end investors do not buy this debt it will have to be the Fed or its proxies (the banks)"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-09T17:00Z 204.9K followers, 15K engagements

"The cyclical bull market that was born on October XX 2022 is about to turn three years old and is now good for a XX% gain. That puts it slightly above average in terms of both duration and magnitude (90% over XX months). But of course there is nothing average about this bull market"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-08T13:57Z 204.9K followers, 58.1K engagements

"When looking at historical periods of either fiscal dominance or financial repression (as I have done below) one thing is clear: in real terms bonds do poorly even if they are OK in nominal terms. For this chart I have indexed the various asset classes that I track against the S&P XXX starting in 1942 1965 2009 and 2020. The vertical axis shows the real return so anything under the grey circles (which shows the S&P 500) underperforms. This chart tells me that the 60/20/20 playbook could be a keeper"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-03T14:00Z 204.9K followers, 38.6K engagements

"Earnings season is here and the Q3 estimate of $68/share has been remarkably flat for some time now. If history is any guide we should see a meaningful bounce from the X% growth estimate. A good bounce seems likely following the sharp uptick in earnings revisions in recent months"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-15T17:00Z 204.9K followers, 11.3K engagements

"Finally there has been a lot of demand for bitcoin lately (via the ETFs/ETPs) so here too we have a case of investor enthusiasm meets cold water. Overall I dont see much in the sentiment data that gives me concern that a mother of all bubbles is about to burst. But sentiment is certainly elevated enough following the markets impressive winning streak that it might take more than a day for the market to find its footing. In any case the narrative will likely turn to earnings season which is about to get underway. /5"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-15T15:45Z 204.9K followers, 14.1K engagements

"If the Fed were to become more pliable in an era of fiscally expanding state capitalism then yield curve control (YCC) may well become the next chapter. That may be needed to prevent the curve from bear steepening and the term premium from mean-reverting to its historical patterns. If so Treasuries may become the next JGBs with boring nominal returns low volatility and negative real returns"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-09T18:00Z 204.9K followers, 18K engagements

"There remain many unanswered questions hanging over the market including whether the post-Powell Fed will become more compliant to fiscal policy. With the debate between the status quo Fed and a fiscally submissive Fed now introduced by Stephen Mirans recent speech the central question will come down to what constitutes a neutral policy. If neutral is inflation plus R* or XXX bps it should be at least 3.5%. But that consensus is being challenged by a view that the neutral rate may be much lower. The market seems to be in the middle with the forward curve now bottoming around X% against"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-09T16:00Z 204.9K followers, 13.1K engagements

"Stories abound about the circularity of todays AI boom with parallels to the vendor financing shenanigans during the late 1990s. It all sounds dj vu but the one thing about parabolas is that they are chaotic nonlinear phenomena that make little sense in real time. Thats what makes bubbles irrational and impossible to predict. They always go further than anyone imagines and we can see below that the price action in NVDA and Bitcoin haver already bucked the typical pattern of a bursting parabola"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-16T17:00Z 204.9K followers, 5870 engagements

"Following the estimate markdowns in April earnings estimates have re-accelerated in recent months. Thats good to see following two years of multiple expansion. The question always is what the right price is for each dollar of earnings and according to the market the answer is 25x for the S&P XXX cap-weighted index and 19x for the equal-weighted index. The 2025 EPS estimate has now recovered to $XXX while the 2026 and 2027 estimates have risen to $XXX and $XXX respectively"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-08T17:00Z 204.9K followers, 17.6K engagements

"Whether the AI boom turns into a melt-up in which more and more companies get caught up in the AI mania (deservedly or not) remains a juicy question. Given the close proximity to the 1994-2000 analog I am prepared for this scenario to become a reality. We can see from the fragmented analog below that while the 2022-2025 period has closely resembled the post-1994 soft landing bull market (until 1998) the past six months (following Aprils XX% tariff tantrum) closely resembles the post-LTCM melt-up in 1998-2000. That boom was supported by three rate cuts from Greenspan (following the three in"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-02T16:30Z 204.9K followers, 119.3K engagements

"The analog to the 1994-1998 and 1998-2000 bull markets remains highly relevant especially now that the Fed is cutting rates right into a high-momentum bull market. The same thing happened in 1998 following the LTCM crisis. The analog chart below shows that the 1990s remains the only other bull market with similar momentum and valuation characteristics. When digging into the analog I found that the 1994-1998 period closely resembles the cyclical bull market that started in 2022. Back then Alan Greenspan successfully landed the plane following a big tightening cycle just as Jay Powell did in"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-09-26T15:00Z 204.9K followers, 44.6K engagements

"Lets see where sentiment levels are as that might shed some light on the risk level in the market. First up: margin debt. While margin debt has now grown to $X trillion its only 1/57th of the equity market cap. Plus it has not grown at a pace that makes me worried. Back in 2000 at the top of the tech bubble margin debt had grown XX% yoy and during the Feds easy money mini bubble in 2021 it had grown 72%. Today it is up XX% from a year ago. So no red flag here as far as I am concerned. 🧵"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-15T15:43Z 204.9K followers, 46.4K engagements

"Just as Aprils XX% drawdown driven by the Tariff Tantrum (TT) had become a distant memory we got another taste of it on Friday with news that China will get hit with a XXX% tariff. Whether this turns into a TT XXX remains to be seen but Fridays news hit the tape at a time when the market had been enjoying a lengthy streak of momentum. Predictably the more speculative parts of the market got hit the worst led by crypto non-profitable tech and the like. Below we see the GS nonprofitable tech index which posted a key reversal day on Friday. But it has barely put a dent in the rally since April."
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-14T19:00Z 204.9K followers, 16.7K engagements

"The current animal spirits driving stock prices and earnings estimates higher are happening despite a deteriorating liquidity profile driven by the Treasury replenishing its cash account at the Fed (TGA) while the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet and the repo facility at the Fed is all but depleted. Right now the market doesnt seem to care"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-09T15:00Z 204.9K followers, 49.3K engagements

"Through last Friday the bull has produced a garden variety XX% gain exactly in line with the median gain over the past century. But of course we all know that there is nothing typical about this cycle. Usually bull markets start broad and end narrow but this one started narrow and while it has broadened somewhat in absolute terms it remains narrow in relative terms. Typical bull markets start with a low P/E and end with a high P/E but this one started expensive and has become even more so. The fist year of a bull market typically begins with P/E expansion as price discounts an earnings"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-14T16:49Z 204.9K followers, 16.9K engagements

"The secular bull market by my count at least is now XX years old and going strong. The yellow-shaded line below is the trendline since 2009 whereas the purple-shaded one goes back XXX years. Up and to the right with my main question being whether this one will end in a whimper (like the late 1960s) or a bang (2000 and 1929)"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-08T16:00Z 204.9K followers, 32.8K engagements

"Likewise for the Investors Intelligence survey which predicably shows more bulls than bears but not at an extreme that gives me pause. Sentiment surveys are generally better in signaling oversold extremes (more bears than bulls) than overbought ones. /3"
X Link @TimmerFidelity 2025-10-15T15:44Z 204.9K followers, 4330 engagements