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@econcallum "you can see that in 2017 (latest data) there were $147bn of alcohol sales at off-premises places such as restaurants. These places had total sales (including food) of about $1trn. But alcohol has a much higher profit margin--typically only takes about XX% of the labour to provide the product versus food"
@econcallum on X 2025-03-26 18:01:08 UTC 4744 followers, 6921 engagements

"Morgan Stanley estimates that AI infrastructure spending will be $2.9trn over next three years of which the big tech firms can only finance half themselves"
@econcallum on X 2025-07-21 14:51:30 UTC 4741 followers, XXX engagements

"1998 research paper from Goldman finds that the value of all big US dotcom companies was about $60bn that year ($100bn in real terms). Market cap of largest US AI services companies (so NOT e.g. Nvidia just the firms that sell AI): about $500bn 2/5"
@econcallum on X 2025-07-23 09:41:37 UTC 4744 followers, XX engagements

"But real AI revenues today are not that much higher than real dotcom revenues in 1998. And while dotcom was making SOME (small) profits in 1998 AI is not. NOTE LOG SCALE 3/5"
@econcallum on X 2025-07-23 09:41:38 UTC 4743 followers, XX engagements

"AI is in a bubble. What follows is an attempt to compare AI with dotcom. Bottom line: things look way out of whack 1/5"
@econcallum on X 2025-07-23 09:41:37 UTC 4743 followers, XXX engagements

"@JamesSurowiecki @jp_koning Eh Two years ago everyone would have agreed that inflation falling towards target was the economy doing well and the corollary of that is lower rates"
@econcallum on X 2025-07-25 21:06:03 UTC 4741 followers, XX engagements