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@UrbanKaoboy "Musings of the Day 10/14/25: I think Robins contention here depends on the Macro context. If the market loses faith in the Feds ability to contain Inflation I agree. Yet I note that the opposite has been happening lately with US long yields COMPRESSING despite the Fed cut. I suggest that other factors like the Reverse Marshall Plan are at play:"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-14T13:09Z 108.4K followers, 26.4K engagements

"Private Credit has become hugely popular because of its low vol and high Sharpe Ratios. Too bad not marking to market not having risk. This is why I call BDCs Jump-To-Default Short Puts"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-11T22:11Z 108.4K followers, 33.8K engagements

"Mystery Location of the Day 10/8/25: Where am I"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-08T11:00Z 108.4K followers, 9646 engagements

"JPM now committing $1.5T toward Critical Path Industries. This is another $1.5T of Fiscal Red Bull Redirection which takes the headline number over XX years to almost $13T now. This is Fiscal Spending that the US Gov does NOT need to spend because it is being spent by Private Industry and Foreign Governments. Its no wonder that the UST 10Y is beginning to outperform other major Sovereign 10Ys"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-13T20:07Z 108.4K followers, 35.6K engagements

"Interview: Macro/Geopolitical Regime Change Under Trump XXX on "For The Record" with Maggie Lake/The Market House. I am pleased to rejoin Maggie in the debut episode of "For The Record" on her new "The Market House" Substack. We discuss the potential for Macro & Geopolitical Regime Change under Trump 2.0"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-09-13T13:00Z 108.4K followers, 51.6K engagements

"Musings of the Day 10/13/25: Truly a historic day all around from the mutual release of hostages to Egypt hosting the peace summit to Turkeys flex for influence in the wake of a defanged Iran. When you consider the deep-seated roots of conflict (please listen to KAOS THEORY XX ICYMI) in the Middle East this was truly against all odds. If Trump prevails in his vision of providing Geopolitical Glue via mutually beneficial economic interests in the Gaza Strip imagine what a reimagined Abraham Accords that involves Saudi Arabia can do for the entire region. As a lover of ancient history I am"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-13T18:43Z 108.4K followers, 20.9K engagements

"Musings of the Day 10/7/25: Domino effects based on Trump Tariffs is a biased and misleading way to put it. People still dont seem to understand that Globalization thats NOT based on Comparative Advantages but rather Top-Down State-Directed GDP targets on Chinas part will inevitably result in endless supply of whatever its Runaway Assembly Line is focused on producing. Protectionism was inevitable regardless of country or leader"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-07T16:54Z 108.4K followers, 9473 engagements

"Musings of the Day 10/10/25: Some thoughts on Credit Markets: BDCs are broadly down 20-30% in the last couple months. This big BK of First Brands is something to watch. Remains to be seen whether this metastasizes into something bigger. CLO Equities ironically have been struggling with Spread COMPRESSION all year. Loosening of spreads will help the arbitrage while more severe Credit Contagion will hurt valuations. That said BSL (Broadly Syndicated Loan) CLO structures with ample Reinvestment Periods are poised to capitalize on Credit Distress. My piece from last year explains the difference"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-10T11:12Z 108.4K followers, 20.8K engagements

"In a world that has girded for Geopolitical Instability watch out for REGIME CHANGE to happen both Macroeconomically and Geopolitically when PEACE breaks out. That is what I term a PEACE BLACK SWAN"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-09T18:45Z 108.4K followers, 6748 engagements

"Geological Feature of the Day 10/10/25: In case youre feeling buried today remember that theres always light at the end of the lava tube"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-10T21:51Z 108.4K followers, 10.6K engagements

"Musings of the Day 10/3/25: Cheap ubiquitous ENERGY just might be the biggest ultimate net benefit of this AI buildout"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-03T08:44Z 108.4K followers, 30K engagements

"I have been pondering the Big Picture Impact of the collision of these two trends and am ready to make a BOLD PREDICTION: The biggest impact of this AI Data Center Land Grab will be an OVERBUILDING OF ENERGY GENERATION/TRANSMISSION CAPACITY to accommodate this Land Grab. Imagine looking back 10-20 years from now with CHEAP UBIQUITOUS ENERGY as the end result of this overbuild kinda like the world of Cheap Ubiquitous Bandwidth we have now which came about because of the similarly frenetic Fiber Optic Buildout of XX years ago"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-08-21T19:43Z 108.4K followers, 96.1K engagements

"I think they ($MBI) views the two paths as a wash. National is massively overcapitalized and PREPA is the only thing holding up more releases of surplus. Ive long argued that $AGO should have just carved out the PREPA exposure with a CVI. They could have gotten $MBI on the cheap. They havent so that leaves National no choice but to distribute it out until they do get a good price from AGO. Management owns a ton of stock and is very financially savvy so I am confident that will do whats best for shareholders"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-08-20T18:58Z 108.4K followers, XXX engagements

"Geologic Wonder of the Day 10/9/25:"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-09T14:06Z 108.4K followers, 10.3K engagements

"There is talk that ACA subsidies will get extended and if that happens the sandbagged estimates for this bombed out sector will prove way too low. $UNH $CNC"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-03T17:19Z 108.4K followers, 13.4K engagements

"Musings of the Day 10/11/25: I like the disclosure requirement for cigarettes here in Vienna. 😳"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-11T05:19Z 108.4K followers, 8881 engagements

"Chinas Rare Earth Flex is temporary and will wind up backfiring. I think both the US and China will become more independent of each other as a result of this Tariff War which isnt bad from a Geopolitical perspective. This period could be turbulent as each side tries to wean itself of dependencies on the other but no matter what I dont see how China will find another Consumer Market like the US. The fact that their Export Numbers have held up thus far means nothing as it is just a matter of time before RoW pushes back on its Runaway Assembly Line. They have the losing hand by far imho and it"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-14T22:45Z 108.4K followers, 9248 engagements

"Im sitting in a Growth Equity presentation and the slide says that companies are attaining $50B valuations much faster than ever before. Then I think about this chart and observe that Ourobouroses are getting sated eating their own tails faster than ever before"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-15T01:35Z 108.4K followers, 5619 engagements

"Mystery Location of the Day 10/7/25: Where am I"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-07T17:12Z 108.4K followers, 5449 engagements

"In particular I would watch Oil and Gold. 👀"
X Link @UrbanKaoboy 2025-10-09T18:55Z 108.4K followers, 5071 engagements