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@GarpandChill "🧵 Evolution $EVO.ST Q3 2025 post-earnings thoughts X Shareholder since 2023 (17 % of portfolio). Once a flawless compounder now a drag on performance and patience. When your biggest holding stumbles you reassess. 👇"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-25T17:38Z XXX followers, 31.5K engagements

"6 The Skeptics Lens But here is the question that matters The Kazakh XX year government bond yields about XX percent That yield reflects expected inflation a real risk free return sovereign and currency risk premium and other risk term and liquidity factors If Kaspis earnings grow below that XX percent in KZT why take equity risk at all"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:16Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"7 The Trade Off Equities should offer real returns above bonds but in emerging markets that margin of safety narrows fast When inflation and FX volatility spike even XX percent KZT growth can translate to flat USD returns At that point cheap can stay cheap Kaspis quality is undeniable but the currency math is brutal"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:17Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"8 The Path Forward Kaspi is still executing well Expanding regionally into Turkey Dominating its home market Printing cash with little competition But investors will need confidence that 1) KZT stabilizes 2) Growth reaccelerates above inflation 3) Turkey turns from cost center to growth engine Until then the XX percent bond sets a high bar"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:17Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"9 My Take Kaspi remains one of the best run fintechs globally but the macro discount may be justified for now If management can sustain more than XX percent earnings growth in KZT and maintain margins the equity will eventually outrun the bond yield but it is not as automatic as it once was"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Tough day for Serial Acquirers. $TOI.V: -XXX% Constellation Software $CSU.TO: -XXX% Lumine Group $LMN.V: -XXX% No news. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-29T15:01Z XXX followers, 3803 engagements

"Excellent context thanks. Did not know that. A XX% import levy directly hits Shopees cross-border advantage. Shifting volume toward MELIs local ecosystem. Definitely bearish for $SEs Brazil unit. Slightly off-topic: Curious how you see the $NU vs $MELI competition evolving in Brazil Own both at this stage. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T14:25Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@FedexSTi @MatiasRafael7 P/E has its use cases but there are better metrics for high growth companies like $MELI $AMZN or $NU. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"3 Valuation remains cheap (11 P/E) despite elite profitability and global dominance in live casino. The short-report saga: Playtech was confirmed behind the 2021 Black Cube smear. That could finally ease the sentiment drag"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-25T17:39Z XXX followers, 2493 engagements

"4 Why it matters 👇 X Clears Evolutions name. X May push clients away from Playtechs unethical tactics. X Symbolic win even if compensation is minor. Together these could start lifting the cloud over $EVO"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-25T17:39Z XXX followers, 2443 engagements

"@Speedwell_LLC @ShawzieInvest @Nybergarenn After cutting off the stolen streams and thereby also the good revenue that served as collateral would you expect those users to eventually find their way back to $EVO games through another channel"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-25T21:03Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"7/ This isnt just e-commerce. Its a compounding ecosystem across commerce logistics payments and credit Competitors will struggle to keep up with that flywheel The question isnt who offers free shipping Its who can survive giving it"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-26T14:56Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"8/ Bonus insight most investors overlook: advertising $MELIs ad business is quietly becoming a profit engine. Its insanely high-margin still early in its ramp-up and will steadily lift group margins over time Its the hidden catalyst few are modeling yet"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-26T14:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@hollertotide @ChristopheNour Thanks for the reply and link to video. Any idea what the destination of your cash pile will be G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-26T17:49Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$EVO resumed its buybacks on Friday after Q3 results the one thing management keeps getting right. When done through cycles and sustained over time buybacks can quietly create massive compounding. Just look at $AN AutoNation (2017 to 2024) an unglamorous low-growth business of car dealerships: Revenue +3.3 % CAGR Net income +6.9 % CAGR Share count XXXX % CAGR EPS +20.0 % CAGR Total return since 2017: $AN +312 % vs S&P XXX +206 %. A significant outperformance. $AN trades around XX P/E. Mohnish Pabrai recently bought in he knows the power of a true share cannibal. Request to $EVO management:"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-27T14:08Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@readswithravi Telling myself $EVO is like this. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-29T14:11Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$MELI Q3: Ads do not disappoint. Dont tell me I didnt warn you. Ad revenue +56 % YoY G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-29T21:39Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@FromValue @letuscompound So youre telling me to hold $EVO.ST G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-30T12:54Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@ConsensusGurus Love comparing $WMT valuation with $AMZN. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-31T12:30Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@lilsnipes23 Agreed. Expecting good earnings for all three. Remember when ChatGPT destroyed search by $GOOGL Me neither. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-31T12:36Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"4 Numbers that matter Q2 revenue up XX % year on year the highest since FY23. This does not include Topicuss Asseco stake. Then growth would be in the XX to XX % range. A three year high driven by both organic and acquired growth"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-31T16:27Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"7 AI headwind or tailwind AI could pressure generic software vendors by automating workflows and compressing pricing. But vertical market software like Topicus benefits when AI is embedded into niche solutions raising efficiency customer stickiness and value per user. More tailwind than threat"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-31T16:28Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"9 The story Topicus doesnt chase headlines. It quietly deploys capital builds moats and compounds value. While others debate disruption Topicus compounds through it"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-31T16:29Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@lilsnipes23 @SteveWps Sounds good. Do you have a write-up for $BN you can share G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-01T17:50Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@davey_juice Looking back these fears seem totally unwarranted as always. $MELI keeps dominating. Long. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-01T17:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"This is exactly why Im convinced the price war in Brazil between $SE $AMZN and $MELI ultimately favors the latter. $MELI has the deepest logistics footprint and scale so lowering the free-shipping threshold can still be profitable. For $SE and especially $AMZN this move burns cash instead of driving leverage. Scale wins. $MELI has it. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-01T22:59Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@zarieinvests Curious what are the key things youre watching this earnings call G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T11:43Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"📅 Earnings week (Nov X 2025) Watching: Mon: $PLTR $HIMS Tue: $UBER $SHOP $SPOT $AMD $TOI.V Wed: $MCD $ARM $QCOM Thu: $ABNB $TDD $LLY $DKNG $DNP.WA $WISE.L Fri: $NCLH $DHI What are you watching G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T11:46Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"4 The Numbers had net income growth in the XX to XX percent range in recent years Management now guides for about XX percent net income growth in 2025 ROE remains above XX percent and cash conversion close to XXX percent Still strong but no longer effortless Dividend payouts have been reduced as cash is redirected toward the $HEPS HepsiBurada acquisition in Turkey Short term drag long term optionality"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:15Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"5 The Appeal More than half of Kazakhstans population uses Kaspi NPS above XX Rare profitability in emerging market fintech Single digit P E for a platform compounding at double digits On paper it looks absurdly cheap"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:16Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Thanks Matheus. Kaspi seems to do everything right but the macro keeps fighting it. Youre spot on. Higher rates compress fintech margins and the smartphone import tax change explains much of the marketplace slowdown. Once those normalize XX% plus growth looks achievable again. Curious how you see the $HEPS story playing out. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:47Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@matheussilvae Thats a fair point. Paying up for a turnaround is always tricky especially when market share is still slipping. But if they can apply even part of their Kazakhstan playbook in Turkey logistics payments and ecosystem cross-sell the upside could indeed be massive. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:58Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"2 Its a digital bank from Latin America scaling faster than almost any in the world. Over XXX million users all onboarded digitally no branches. Customer love not marketing spend drives the flywheel"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:04Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"3 Its Nubank $NU. Every new user makes it stronger and cheaper to run. Cost to serve $XXX per month (-3 % YoY FXN) ARPAC $XXXX (+18 % YoY FXN) Word of mouth near-zero CAC. David Vlez CEO 🎥 Interview (Norges Bank Investment Management)"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:04Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"4 ARPAC keeps climbing yet is still of traditional banks. If $NU reaches even XX % of legacy ARPAC revenue per user roughly doubles with minimal added cost"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:04Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"5 Revenues and profits are exploding. 📈 Revenue $3.7B 💜 Net income $637M All from just three countries"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:04Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"6 In Mexico digital banks are eating incumbents alive. $NU now rivals BBVA among top-used financial apps. Old empires are crumbling"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:04Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"7 Credit remains resilient. XX + DPD XXX % with XXX % coverage on NPL90 +. Underwriting hype"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:04Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"8 Next growth legs: and . Insane Customer and Deposits growth. 👇 These markets are larger and less penetrated than Brazil when NU began"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:04Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"9 XX forward P/E with 30+ % EPS growth. Net income +42 % YoY FXN. And now the BRL is strengthening vs USD (-8.6 % YoY). Imagine what USD-denominated growth will look like this year 👀"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:04Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"🔟 Old banks lent money. New banks build networks. Buffett saw it early then sold. The compounding continued. $NU is turning banking into software and is now testing a US beachhead for LatAm expats. $NU $MELI $PAGS G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:04Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"11 EVO remains a cash cow but with bruised trust. No-growth scenario = modest yield from buybacks plus dividends. Real returns need growth plus multiple re-rating. USA remains the biggest opportunity ahead"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-25T17:42Z XXX followers, 2017 engagements

"1/ Shopee ($SE) just overtook MercadoLibre ($MELI) in order volume across Brazil The battle for Latin Americas e-commerce crown is on Is MELIs moat cracking or proving unbreakable $MELI is my second largest position (16%) Heres my take 👇"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-26T14:52Z XXX followers, 1245 engagements

"@BrianFeroldi Would you recommend someone of age XX to invest XX% of his portfolio in bonds or cash That seems unnecessary. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T00:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@matheussilvae Thanks for the insight. Will have a look at $INTR. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T14:56Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@HLaaws How large is $NU in your portfolio G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:01Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@heychar_x USD/BRL may even work in $NU's favour. Expect even larger rev growth coming year. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:02Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"1 ($TOI.V) The quiet compounding engine of the Constellation family. Born in Europe built for longevity. Same DNA as $CSU.TO but with more organic growth and a longer runway. 🧵"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-31T16:25Z XXX followers, 10.8K engagements

"6 Culture and incentives Same owner mindset as Constellation $CSU.TO. No central bureaucracy. Capital allocation discipline and skin in the game drive durable compounding"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-31T16:28Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"1 X TLDR Constellation wrote the script. Topicus is performing it in Europe with more agility and a much longer runway to grow. Initiated a position around X %. Earnings on Tuesday will tell if I made the right choice. $TOI.V $CSU.TO $LMN.TO"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-31T16:32Z XXX followers, 1095 engagements

"2 The Business Kaspi is essentially the WeChat of Kazakhstan A one stop platform for payments shopping and banking Three ecosystems feed each other Kaspi Payments (payments infrastructure) Kaspi Marketplace Kaspi Fintech (consumer and merchant lending) A rare closed loop fintech model that is both sticky and profitable"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:13Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"10 In Short Kaspi is a paradox Quality of a Western compounder Valuation of a frontier market Execution that is proven Macro that is less so For long term investors it is a test of conviction Are you betting on Kaspi the business or Kazakhstan the currency G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:18Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@matheussilvae Thats a great point. A XX% dividend yield would completely change the risk-reward profile especially if it closes the gap with the local bond yield. Thanks for sharing your views. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T14:03Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Dont sleep on a $10B fintech compounding at 20%+ in an emerging market and trading at 8x earnings. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T16:50Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@moninvestor You were at $100000 long ago as you are denominated in GBP. G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T13:57Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"12 Playtechs exposure could still shift sentiment and share. $EVO is in a contradictory phase battling cyber issues in Asia and paying up for ringfencing in Europe while expanding in LATAM and the USA where growth may take a few more years to matter. 🧵 End"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-25T17:43Z XXX followers, 2122 engagements

"The bloodbath continues. $TOI.V: -XXX% Constellation Software $CSU.TO: -XXX% Lumine Group $LMN.V: -XXX% G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-29T18:32Z XXX followers, 2035 engagements

"5 The pecking order 🟩 $CSU.TO global mothership size limits speed 🟦 $LMN.TO focused on communications software 🟨 $TOI.V European VMS leader smaller deals higher ROIIC Topicus is the best mix of scale and runway"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-31T16:27Z XXX followers, 1144 engagements

"$EVO.ST -XXX% Heavy sell into the close today. Volume picked up sharply in the final minutes. Doesnt look like pure retail flow. Feels like one meaningful holder lightening up. If pessimism isnt done flushing yet that sets up an interesting setup. When forced sellers finish price often snaps back faster than people expect. Watching closely"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-10-31T17:37Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"1 $KSPI The fintech super app that seems to tick every box ✅ Best in class metrics ✅ Huge insider ownership ✅ Consistent earnings growth ✅ Cheap on almost any metric Yet the market is not buying it Lets unpack why 🧵"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:12Z XXX followers, 1140 engagements

"May we finally see some green $EVO.ST G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-02T13:34Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$EVO $EVO.ST the share cannibal continues. Evolution AB is ramping up buybacks again Stock +2.0% today. Have we seen the bottom G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T11:59Z XXX followers, 3326 engagements

"@dividendology $MELI sub 2200 $TOI.V sub 140"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T14:37Z XXX followers, 1120 engagements

"This keeps getting better and better. $EVO $EVO.ST G&C"
X Link @GarpandChill 2025-11-03T20:14Z XXX followers, 1849 engagements