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@HedgieMarkets "🦔 I want to explain what this China trade data reveals about the broader economic realignment happening globally because it shows the tariff strategy is working exactly as intended while creating new challenges. The XX% drop in Chinese exports to the US reflects the success of tariff policies in reducing import dependence on China. This is a massive shift that forces American businesses to find alternative suppliers or bring production home which aligns with the reshoring goals we've discussed. However the XXXX% jump in Chinese shipments to ASEAN and XX% increase to Africa shows China is"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-09-08T18:02Z 11.3K followers, 4507 engagements

"🦔 JPMorgan's $XX billion rare earth investment announcement just triggered massive moves in the sector with some stocks jumping over XX% in premarket trading. This represents Wall Street finally waking up to the national security implications of China's supply chain dominance we've been discussing. The Strategic Shift JPMorgan's new 10-year initiative to "finance and invest in industries critical to national economic security" signals that rare earth supply chains are now viewed as financial and security assets rather than just industrial inputs. When major investment banks commit this kind"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-13T17:12Z 11.3K followers, 3973 engagements

"🦔 Goldman Sachs economists are warning about "jobless growth" becoming the new normal where GDP expands while hiring stagnates outside healthcare. Fed Governor Chris Waller confirmed that "job growth has probably been negative the last few months" meaning the central bank isn't meeting its employment mandate even as the economy appears healthy on paper. The AI Productivity Paradox Goldman expects most future growth to come from AI-driven productivity improvements rather than job creation with demographic trends like aging populations and lower immigration constraining labor supply. The share"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-15T14:42Z 11.3K followers, 9524 engagements

"🦔 Data center spending has become so massive that it's now contributing more to US GDP growth than consumer spending for the first time in history. The Magnificent Seven tech giants spent over $XXX billion on data centers in just the past three months with Microsoft Google Amazon and Meta forecasting a record $XXX billion in capital investment for 2025. The Economic Engine Shift AI data center expenditure is approaching X% of total US GDP by itself surpassing consumer spending's contribution to growth. Paul Kedrosky notes this capex boom has reached XX% of the peak railroad spending as a"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-14T23:21Z 11.3K followers, 14.1K engagements

"🦔 Microsoft is ending Windows XX support to force users into Windows XX which they're now "rewriting around AI" with Copilot taking over the taskbar and requiring voice commands like "Hey Copilot" The company admits it wants to create "truly the AI PC" where the system can "act on your behalf" through features that monitor your screen and perform tasks automatically. The Forced Migration Strategy Nearly half a billion machines can't run Windows XX creating massive e-waste as perfectly functional computers get discarded. Users face paying for extended Windows XX security updates or upgrading"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-17T22:39Z 11.4K followers, 5784 engagements

"🦔 I've been digging into the AI data center economics and a hedge fund manager just discovered something that confirms my worst fears about this bubble. Harris Kupperman initially thought data centers were financially questionable but after talking to industry insiders he realized the situation is catastrophically worse. What I Found Most Alarming Kupperman originally assumed data center components would depreciate over XX years but learned from two dozen senior professionals that the actual lifespan is just 3-10 years due to rapid technology advances. His revised calculations show the"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-13T18:43Z 11.4K followers, 432.3K engagements

"🦔 China's new rare earth restrictions are creating immediate disruptions across the global chip supply chain and I'm seeing this as the economic warfare escalation that makes the AI infrastructure scaling even more impossible. The new rules require overseas firms to get approval for shipping anything containing even trace amounts of Chinese rare earths which could grind semiconductor production to a halt. The Supply Chain Reality ASML the only company that makes machines for advanced semiconductors is facing weeks-long delays in shipments. US chip companies are scrambling to identify which"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-13T19:23Z 11.4K followers, 3642 engagements

"🦔 Microsoft's data center in Mexico faces serious local pushback as residents report water shortages lasting weeks power outages affecting medical care and stomach bugs with hepatitis cases spreading through contaminated water. Despite corporate denials officials plan XXX gigawatts of additional capacity over five years while locals pay for private water trucks and lose food to power surges. The Infrastructure Strain Local residents face weeks without water forcing school closures while medical facilities can't treat patients due to power outages. The timing correlates with the data center's"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-20T18:05Z 11.4K followers, 21.6K engagements

"🦔 S&P downgraded France from AA- to A+ in an unscheduled move marking the second major rating agency to strip France of its double-A rating in just over a month. French bond futures dropped while the French-German yield spread widened to nearly XX basis points surpassing lower-rated countries like Greece and Portugal. The Political Chaos Driver The downgrade stems from France's "most severe political instability since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958" according to S&P. Prime Minister Lecornu survived no-confidence votes only by suspending Macron's pension reforms the very measures"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-20T20:11Z 11.4K followers, 1972 engagements

"🦔 Nvidia's $XXX trillion market cap now exceeds the combined value of every publicly traded bank in the US and Canada at $XXX trillion. This visualization starkly illustrates how AI speculation has created valuations that dwarf entire financial sectors with one chip company worth more than JPMorgan Bank of America Wells Fargo Goldman Sachs and hundreds of other banks combined. The Circular Investment Problem The discussion reveals the core issue: AI companies are essentially investing in each other at inflated valuations. Nvidia invests in OpenAI which buys Nvidia chips while OpenAI signs"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-21T01:18Z 11.4K followers, 4652 engagements

"🦔Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that recent collapses in US private credit markets have "worrying echoes" of the sub-prime mortgage crisis that triggered the 2008 financial crash. Two leveraged firms First Brands and Tricolor recently collapsed prompting Bailey to question whether these are isolated incidents or "the canary in the coalmine" signaling deeper problems in private credit markets. The 2008 Parallel Bailey referenced the pre-crisis period when regulators were told sub-prime mortgages were "too small to be systemic" which turned out to be catastrophically wrong. He's"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-22T19:26Z 11.4K followers, 1634 engagements

"🦔Amazon Web Services suffered a major outage Monday that lasted over XX hours taking down Amazon's shopping hub Ring cameras ChatGPT Fortnite Snapchat and banking apps. Issues were first reported at 3:11 AM EST with the underlying problem "fully mitigated" three hours later but normal operations weren't restored until 6:53 PM. The outage caused an estimated billions in lost productivity and was blamed on a DNS resolution issue. The AI Replacement Timing The outage comes months after AWS cut at least hundreds of jobs in July following CEO Andy Jassy's warning that generative AI adoption would"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-22T21:48Z 11.4K followers, 1967 engagements

"🦔 The AI bubble evidence is now overwhelming. OpenAI needs "trillions" for infrastructure while burning $XXX billion through 2029 on $X billion annual revenue. They're valued at $XXX billion having never made a profit. Even their chairman admits "we're in a bubble and a lot of people will lose a lot of money." The Circular Money Game Nvidia invests $XXX billion in OpenAI who uses it to buy Nvidia chips. Meta borrows $XX billion for a data center the size of Manhattan. Companies that previously mined crypto are now AI infrastructure plays. This isn't investment it's musical chairs with"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-06T23:04Z 11.4K followers, 93.6K engagements

"🦔 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas just included "Singularity: Extinction" scenarios in their economic forecasts complete with charts showing gradual GDP decline over a decade if AI becomes malevolent. When central bankers start modeling human extinction alongside inflation projections we've officially entered peak bubble territory. The Chart That Says Everything I'm looking at a Fed chart with lines for "Singularity: Benign scenario" and "Singularity: Extinction" that treats AGI outcomes like weather forecasts. The extinction scenario shows a gradual GDP decline over 10+ years suggesting"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-14T14:16Z 11.4K followers, 4464 engagements

"🦔 The AI bubble has spawned an energy bubble where zero-revenue companies have ballooned to over $XX billion in collective value based on hopes that tech companies will eventually buy their non-existent power. Oklo Sam Altman's nuclear startup has risen 8x this year to a $XX billion market cap despite having no operating license no binding contracts and no expected revenue until 2028. The Scale of Speculation Fermi valued at $XX billion on debut plans to build XX gigawatts of power capacity but has only secured equipment for X% of that goal with zero customer contracts. Only two no-revenue"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-15T15:48Z 11.4K followers, 53.9K engagements

"🦔 Regional banks are facing a perfect storm of credit problems with commercial real estate loans comprising XX% of their portfolios versus just XX% for large banks. Office loan delinquencies have hit XXXX% approaching 2008 crisis levels while over $X trillion in CRE loans must refinance by year-end in a higher-rate environment. The Fraud Factor Recent disclosures reveal deeper problems beyond market stress. Zions Bancorporation disclosed $XX million in provisions and $XX million in write-offs related to alleged loan fraud from its California division while Western Alliance faced similar"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-16T20:31Z 11.4K followers, 118.2K engagements

"🦔 Sam Altman just committed over $X trillion to AI infrastructure in the past month alone while OpenAI lost $X billion in the first half of 2025 despite doubling revenue. Only X% of ChatGPT's XXX million users pay for subscriptions and Altman admits profitability isn't in his "top ten concerns" despite the company's desperate search for new revenue streams. The Revenue Reality Check OpenAI can't convince XX% of users that ChatGPT is worth $XX monthly yet they're planning to spend more than many countries' GDP on infrastructure. The company is now exploring advertising monetizing Sora video"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-16T23:04Z 11.4K followers, 59K engagements

"🦔 Auto loans have transformed from the safest consumer credit to among the riskiest with delinquencies rising over XX% since 2010 as car prices soared above $50000 and interest rates topped 9%. Even prime borrowers with good credit are missing payments faster than subprime consumers showing this crisis spans all income levels. The Affordability Breakdown New car prices have jumped XX% since 2019 with average monthly payments hitting $XXX and one in five borrowers paying over $1000 monthly. The average auto loan balance has grown XX% since 2010 outpacing all other credit products as consumers"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-17T15:48Z 11.4K followers, 4123 engagements

"🦔 A planned AI data center in Wyoming could consume 5x more electricity than the state's entire population of 590000 residents with initial XXX gigawatt capacity scalable to XX gigawatts. The mystery tenant could be Microsoft Meta or OpenAI but the facility would consume 15.8TWh annually while the full expansion would exceed the state's total electricity generation. The Scale Problem Wyoming already exports two-thirds of its generated electricity but this single data center would dwarf residential consumption by orders of magnitude. The facility needs dedicated energy production using gas"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-20T22:08Z 11.4K followers, 8709 engagements

"🦔Hundreds of public figures including AI "godfathers" Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio signed a letter calling for a prohibition on developing superintelligence until there's scientific consensus it can be done safely. The Future of Life Institute letter cites polling showing only X% of Americans support rapid unregulated AI development while XX% want robust regulation. The Missing Signatures Notable absences include OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and Elon Musk despite Musk signing a similar 2023 letter calling for a pause on models beyond GPT-4. That letter accomplished"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-22T16:21Z 11.4K followers, 1491 engagements

"🦔Regional U.S. banks flagged bad loan and fraud issues this week triggering broad selloffs. Zions disclosed $XX million in losses Western Alliance initiated a fraud lawsuit Fifth Third booked $XXX million in losses tied to Tricolor's bankruptcy and JPMorgan wrote off $XXX million. The KBW Regional Banking Index dropped XXX% this year while large-cap banks are up 15.9%. The Credit Deterioration Pattern Zions CEO said private credit carries the highest risk of losses given high growth and light regulation. Morningstar DBRS notes "asset quality metrics across banks have been deteriorating."
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-22T20:13Z 11.4K followers, 4879 engagements

"🦔Bank of America issued a warning that XX% of its proprietary "bear market signposts" are flashing red approaching the XX% threshold that has historically signaled market peaks. All XX valuation metrics tracked by the firm show the S&P XXX at expensive levels with some at their highest readings ever including market cap to GDP. The index is trading above Tech Bubble levels on nine different metrics. What the Warning Signals Mean The XX% threshold means six out of ten key indicators are triggered including elevated price-to-earnings ratios extreme outperformance of high-priced stocks versus"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-22T22:19Z 11.4K followers, 12.9K engagements

"🦔 The sudden collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor is exposing cracks in the $XX billion asset-backed securities market that should concern anyone tracking broader financial risks. Tricolor filed for bankruptcy after alleged fraud involving pledging the same collateral to multiple lenders leaving major banks like JPMorgan and Fifth Third scrambling with hundreds of millions in potential losses. The lender focused on low-income Hispanic borrowers with over two-thirds being undocumented workers. The Bigger Picture This isn't just about one bad actor. Subprime auto lending has exploded as"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-09-11T16:36Z 11.3K followers, 1681 engagements

"🦔 The IMF just warned about $XXX trillion in bank exposures to hedge funds and private credit representing about X% of total loan books with some banks holding exposures worth more than five times their capital. This shadow banking interconnectedness creates systemic risks that could amplify any market downturn. The Hidden Leverage Problem I'm particularly concerned that over XX% of total banking assets now come from lenders with non-bank exposures exceeding their tier one capital buffers. Banks are chasing higher returns by lending to private credit funds because these loans deliver better"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-14T15:25Z 11.3K followers, 14.3K engagements

"🦔 Data center electricity demand is driving up power bills for everyone with residential rates rising XX% since 2020 and households in Ohio already paying an extra $XX monthly due to data center infrastructure costs. Carnegie Mellon analysis projects electricity bills will rise X% nationwide by 2030 with some areas like Virginia seeing XX% increases. The Demand Explosion Data centers consumed X% of US electricity in 2023 but could reach XX% within three years. Five-year electricity demand forecasts have increased nearly fivefold from XX GW to XXX GW with Texas alone adding XX GW to its 2029"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-16T19:06Z 11.3K followers, 4613 engagements

"🦔 AI data centers are creating a memory and storage shortage that could last a decade with SSD and RAM prices already climbing fast. OpenAI's Stargate project alone has deals for 900000 DRAM wafers monthly representing XX% of global output while Samsung's next-gen NAND is sold out before it even launches. The Supply Chain Squeeze Memory manufacturers learned from past boom-bust cycles and are deliberately constraining supply while redirecting capital to high-margin HBM production for AI rather than consumer products. Micron's entire 2026 HBM output is already committed and every wafer"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-13T18:16Z 11.3K followers, 3050 engagements

"@PowderkegPro99 🦔Robot slaves require the same impossible infrastructure scaling we're discussing plus manufacturing capacity that doesn't exist"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-13T20:58Z 11.3K followers, 11.5K engagements

"🦔 China reported XXX% GDP growth in Q3 slightly beating expectations but showing clear economic strain beneath the surface. While booming exports helped hit the headline number retail sales grew at the slowest pace since November and fixed-asset investment contracted for the first time since 2020 revealing weak domestic demand. The Export Dependency Problem China's growth is increasingly reliant on record exports of manufactured goods to global markets masking underlying weaknesses in domestic consumption and investment. Infrastructure investment expanded only XXX% in the first nine months"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-20T17:45Z 11.3K followers, 1714 engagements

"🦔 An analyst from MacroStrategy Partnership just published findings that the AI bubble is XX times larger than the dot-com bubble and X times bigger than the 2008 housing crisis. Using economist Knut Wicksell's analysis methods Julien Garran calculated the scale based on investment levels versus actual economic returns revealing a bubble that dwarfs previous financial disasters. The Debt Connection We Missed While many assumed AI companies were growing through equity financing making the bubble isolated from the broader economy Goldman Sachs found that $XXX billion of this year's $500"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-14T22:37Z 11.4K followers, 237.8K engagements

"🦔 Fifth Third conducted a "house-to-house" search through 120000 vehicle loans after Tricolor's collapse and found only two additional cases of potential collateral fraud suggesting the subprime auto lender's scheme may have been more contained than initially feared. The bank's thorough VIN-by-VIN review helped calm investor fears with shares recovering XXX% after Thursday's selloff. The Fraud Investigation Results Chief Credit Officer Greg Schroeck called Tricolor "clearly a fraud" but emphasized the bank's comprehensive review found minimal additional exposure beyond the already disclosed"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-17T20:37Z 11.4K followers, 8527 engagements

"🦔 Data center water consumption quadrupled from 4500 cubic meters in 2021 to over 18000 cubic meters in 2025 showing the exponential resource demands of AI infrastructure scaling. This Scottish Water data reveals how quickly digital infrastructure can strain regional water supplies with consumption nearly doubling just between 2024 and 2025. The Acceleration Pattern The chart shows steady increases from 2021-2023 then sharp acceleration in 2024-2025 as AI workloads intensified. This mirrors the token processing explosion at companies like Google where usage jumped from XXX trillion to 1.3"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-20T20:24Z 11.4K followers, 11.3K engagements

"🦔 University of Michigan survey data shows unemployment expectations hitting levels "never this bad outside recessionary periods since 1978" according to Goldman Sachs analysis. The pattern reveals a key insight: AI tech spending is the only factor preventing a technical recession with GDP measuring money circulation between AI companies rather than genuine economic activity. The AI GDP Illusion AI companies are moving massive amounts of money between themselves propping up GDP numbers while everywhere else shows recessionary conditions. This circular financing creates artificial economic"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-21T16:38Z 11.4K followers, 12.2K engagements

"🦔Big Tech firms are taking on more off-balance-sheet debt to finance AI ambitions loans that don't appear in standard financial statements. Meta is looking to raise $XX billion from private credit giants for AI buildouts while Carlyle estimates $XXX trillion of capital will be deployed by 2030 to meet AI demand. The financing structure makes it unclear who ultimately holds the risk: Big Tech the lenders or the investors in funds that own the loans. The Monetization Problem Venture capitalist Paul Kedrosky points out the fundamental issue: it's unclear how this debt will be paid back since AI"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-22T17:23Z 11.4K followers, 6308 engagements

"🦔Meta is cutting roughly XXX positions from its superintelligence lab while simultaneously hiring for its newer TBD Lab. CEO Mark Zuckerberg grew concerned existing AI efforts werent delivering breakthroughs leading to this reorganization and a $XX billion investment in Scale AI. Chief AI officer Alexandr Wang says the work had become overly bureaucratic. The Profitability Problem Metas Reality Labs continues posting massive losses with $XXX billion lost in Q2 alone and projections showing $XX billion in losses for all of 2025. The companys capital expenditures hit $XXXX billion through June"
X Link @HedgieMarkets 2025-10-23T02:14Z 11.4K followers, 1641 engagements