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@Armin_Hartl "@TylerHardt Maybe customers are cautious due to the debt burden after all $RIG has the largest and highest quality flee of drillships"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-03T12:10Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

""Brazil is poised for sustained heavy drilling campaign" (Melius Research). Petrobras expects to increase CapEx by X% in new X year plan. "Deepwater barrels are replacing shale as the low-cost barrel" hence offshore is to increase. $VAL $NE $RIG $SDRL"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-14T17:23Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"4 Reasons why India struggles to transition to green steel production: - High green hydrogen cost - Limited infrastructure for green steel - Young Blast Furnace infrastructure - Lack of resources (low quality iron ore and scrap iron) $HCC $AMR $METC $CNR"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-16T19:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$CRN.AX is expected to achieve production cost of 71-76/t while $HCC is at 75/t. Coronado's coal mix will be XX% low-vol while Warrior will be XX% HVA on XX% less met coal volume (27E). Plus: Coronado is valued at XX% of Warrior's EV. More details:"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-10T11:54Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Trump's policies classified met coal as critical mineral granting XXX% production tax credit. $HCC's 50mt extension projects are fast-tracked and tax credits amount to 25m. Yet $HCC might not be the best asset since $CRN.AX is XX% cheaper. Details:"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-29T12:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Today there have been no news on $RIG. Nevertheless the stock was up XX% and now declined to a mere X% gain. I don't know why I ever thought that markets are efficient. If there are such swings in a single day then there are massive opportunities elsewhere. $VAL $NE $SDRL"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-23T18:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Commodity market theory dictates that prices gravitate toward marginal cost + a premium. For met coal this premium was historically 38%. This implies a price of USD 260/t or a XX% increase to today's level. That's a bullish signal for $HCC $AMR incidentally up 3-4% today"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-25T15:02Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Global blast furnace capacity is 1.5bnt producing XX% of iron supply. Investments imply an increase in BF capacity. These assets have a long life: Operating plants are on avg. XX years old (ex China). Thus demand for met coal won't decrease but supply will. $HCC $AMR $METC"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-24T11:49Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$RIG's shares are down XX% in pre-trading due to a public offering at 3.05/share raising USD 381m. A portion will be used to repay debt this should be good news for long-term owner. Looking forward to today's downward pressure for $VAL $NE $SDRL"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-25T11:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$CRN.AX has contractual obligations demanding rebates thermal coal delivery below market value. Upon expiry in 2027 cashflow of USD 150m p.a. will free up. This is twice the 2024A level and XX% of the total market cap. Only one reason why it is superior to $HCC $AMR $METC"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-11T11:50Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The met coal discussion is focused on US miners with common understanding that $HCC is the highest quality asset. However $CRN.AX seems to have better coal mix larger volume and is reducing FOB cost. All while being valued at XX% of HCC (EV basis). $AMR $METC @MohnishPabrai"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-28T10:16Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The UK government committed 39bn to social and affordable housing over XX years up from the 11.5bn programme in an attempt to increase their share of building to historical levels. Builders like $VTY.L might be huge beneficiaries from increased spending. $TW.L $BTRW.L $PSN.L"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-11T14:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Global coking coal demand in 2022 was 800mt. India's growth in demand by 50mt is XXXX% of global demand almost entirely relying on imports. $HCC $AMR $CNR $METC"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-15T19:37Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Rhino confirms discovery at Volans-1X offshore Namibia hinting towards excellent reservoir quality. This can bring momentum into the Orange basin potentially accelerating finalisation of the political framework. $SEI.V would benefit via PEL83. $GLPEF"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-02T10:59Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$BTU surged by X% after Trump opened 13.1m acres for coal leases. The whole coal sector is up yet $HCC already part of FAST41 for major extensions approval is down. $AMR $METC $CNR $CNR.AX"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-30T08:27Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$NVR is the posterchild of share buybacks but it's compounding is also fueled by volume/profit growth. The UK housing market has a deficit of4.3m homes especially in the affordable segment. $VTY.L shifted to a capital light business model attempting to repeat NVR's success"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-11T11:23Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"I'm always amazed how little markets differentiate in a major sell-off. It looks like pure panic as if the world would end. Tariffs aren't good for the economy but will the used car market in the US be impacted What decline in spending warrants a XX% drop in $CVNA shares"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-12T09:10Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$CRN.AX has 10x potential significantly more upside than $HCC or $AMR due to Coronado's low valuation. I dissected unit economics supply contracts coal quality P&L trends and contextualized valuation to derive to the above conclution. Check it out:"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-10T05:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$CRN.AX made a massive leap in 2025 surpassing $HCC's realized met coal prices. is increasing exposure to high quality coal while $HCC is diluting with Blue Creek (still a great project to pursue). $AMR $METC $CNR"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-06T16:14Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Discovered resources are declining and shifting towards predominantly offshore. Costs are naturally rising as offshore exploration is more expensive but more than XX% of offshroe projects are profitable at prevailing oil prices. $VAL $NE $RIG $SDRL"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-04T17:01Z XXX followers, 1932 engagements

"$VAL announced today that it has been awarded a five-well contract with BP for drillship VALARIS DS-12 in Egypt. The estimated total contract value inclusive of a mobilization fee is approximately $XXX million. Announcement: $NE $RIG $SDRL"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-13T12:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The Trump administration says it will expand coal leasing and fund coal plant upgrades. Yet another bullish indicator on US coal miners. $AMR $HCC $METC $CNR $CNR.AX"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-29T16:46Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Offshore capex is expected to rebound by 2026. However most recent estimates - while being positive - are becoming more cautious pushing the peak out to 2027. This is not disconfirming the offshore driller thesis but pushes peak cashflows out by a year. $VAL $NE $RIG $SDRL"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-04T12:01Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Updated met coal thesis including $CRN.AX. Coronado is not well known despite better coal mix and larger volume vs. $HCC. They struggle with profitability but are continuously reducing FOB cost and trade at only 1/5 of HCC. More details: $AMR $METC"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-29T16:07Z XXX followers, 1270 engagements

"Bezos would have made for a superb investor. Instead he built a company which success he measured based on long-term shareholder value using FCF/share as pivotal KPI. He clearly communicated his ambitions and capital allocation philosophy. In hindsight a unique setup"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-12T12:40Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Met coal prices bottomed late Q2. The average price for Q3 is higher than for Q2 thus miners are likely to have improved profitability vs. Q2. This might be a good quarter for $HCC $AMR $CRN.AX. The biggest upside bet:"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-13T12:08Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$HCC won the Alabama coal lease sale by bidding 46.8m for 53mt of recoverable met coal. With HCC's currently depressed coal margin of USD 69/t this still equates to a cumulative gross profit of 3.7bn. Not a bad deal $AMR $CNR $METC $CNR.AX"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-01T14:46Z XXX followers, 1055 engagements

"Rystad Energy expects deepwater capex for 2026 to double compared to 2025. The average spending from 2025-30 is USD 80bn or XX% higher than in the first half of the decade. That's a bullish sign for $VAL $NE $SDRL $RIG $TDW More sector background:"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-02T17:58Z XXX followers, 1203 engagements

"Met coal bets increasingly appear to be a prime example of a parimutual betting system. Common knowledge is that $HCC has the highest quality hence it trades at a premium valuation (low odds). Contrarily $CRN.AX and $AMR have been left for dead albeit with juicier odds"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-07T13:11Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@PwC analysed the European airport transactions showing increasing multiples from 2000 to 2018. Does anyone have an updated version/alternative source up until 2024 The more granular the better. $TAVHY $FGWLF $FHZN.SW $ADP.PA @KPMG @Deloitte @EYnews @McKinsey @BCG"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-17T07:51Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Cash margin development for met coal miners since 2019. $HCC has structural advantages due to more valuable coal grade mix but recently experienced cost inflation leading to a narrowing of its leadership position. Other miners managed to reduce cash cost $AMR $CRN.AX $METC"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-26T18:20Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$BLK: AI CapEx makes a lot of sense because the key constraint is capacity. Yet thee was no mentioning of incremntal revenue let alone ROIIC. W/o these basic KPIs how can one judge whether CapEx makes sense Just empty phrases feeding the narrative"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-14T06:09Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Met coal prices have had support at the 90th percentile of the cost curve due to marginal producers churning. With the 90th percentile of the cost curve at USD XXX and prices at USD XXX it looks like the worst declines are over. $AMR $HCC $METC $CNR"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-09-24T16:14Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Offshore Mag expects the Middle East to drive offshore upstream growth by investing USD 260bn between 2025 and 2030. That's not drilling specific but there has to be increased drilling otherwise there are no projects. $VAL $NE $SDRL $RIG"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-03T12:28Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@pcebotte @AndersSjastad Like most drillers I think there can be substantial upside. But the most torque is in drillships and less so in semis. Moreover the high debt burden adds a layer of risk and ongoing consolidation puts NOL at risk for a buyout below full value. $VAL $NE are more attractive IMHO"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-03T05:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Met coal miners are on a run this last month. $AMR is up XX% and $HCC XX% partially on back of analysts increasing price targets. I don't want to jinx anything but I'm getting my hopes up"
X Link @Armin_Hartl 2025-10-09T14:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements