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@biancoresearch "The latest on our Bianco Research Total Return Fixed Income Index the ETF that tracks if ( $WTBN) and thoughts on active vs passive management"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-15 16:47:06 UTC 486.5K followers, 19.8K engagements

"Trump made this statement a few hours ago: --- (Bloomberg) -- I think it sort of is President Donald Trump says when asked whether the renovations at the central bank were a fireable offense for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. --- And the betting market has responded. The uptrend continues"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-16 02:37:51 UTC 486.4K followers, 63.2K engagements

"Having fun *TRUMP SAYS HE IS NOT PLANNING TO FIRE FED CHAIR POWELL --- The sports betting market thought the Kansas City Chiefs were a 1.5-point favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles in the past Super Bowl (LIX). Instead the Eagles won by XX points (40-22). Sometimes bettors get it wrong. However it's still helpful information because it reveals how people are thinking. Currently this betting market on firing Powell has not exceeded 50%.They're thinking Trump doesn't really want to fire Powell. Rather Trump wants to use him as a punching bag/punish him. Is this the correct thinking Or is this"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-16 19:49:25 UTC 486.5K followers, 27.3K engagements

"Somebody is working on their resume for an interview. Earlier this evening . *WALLER SAYS FED SHOULD CUT RATES BY QUARTER POINT THIS MONTH *WALLER: ADMINISTRATION HASN'T TALKED TO ME ABOUT FED CHAIR JOB"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-18 03:49:16 UTC 486.4K followers, 36.4K engagements

"Household and daily items leading the way. Is this stuff imported and subject to tariffs"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-22 06:18:52 UTC 486.5K followers, 46.1K engagements

"Looks like it might actually be happening . *TRUMP LIKELY TO FIRE POWELL SOON WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL SAYS *OFFICIAL CAUTIONS NO EXACT TIMELINE FOR DECISION ON FED CHAIR *TRUMP HAS DRAFTED LETTER TO FIRE FED CHAIR: NYT"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-16 15:31:45 UTC 486.5K followers, 48.9K engagements

"Mid-year update We review the performance of the Bianco Research Total Return Index and the ETF that tracks it the WisdomTree Bianco Fund (WTBN). Also the fair value of bonds and why Trump's demand that the Fed cut rates can lead to higher LT yields"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-08 12:58:42 UTC 486.5K followers, 83.3K engagements

"Trump has a field trip scheduled this week. * WHITE HOUSE VISIT TO FED HQ PLANNED FOR THURSDAY: OFFICIAL"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-22 15:40:53 UTC 486.5K followers, 51.4K engagements

"Trump is back with another "truth" today making the point I detail yesterday (retweet below). Trump argues that the US should have the lowest rate because it has the best credit. I might agree with Trump; the US is the best sovereign CREDIT in the world. Credit quality however is a relatively minor factor in determining sovereign yields. Nominal growth inflation expectations and supply determine sovereign yields. The rest of his arguments are the same arguments for high nominal growth higher inflation expectations and BBB has many worried about more supply. All these points to higher yields."
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-10 16:24:51 UTC 486.4K followers, 122.6K engagements

"The market probability (ff futures) of a July 30th cut is X% The next meeting is Sept XX. My rule of thumb: between XX% and XX% for the "meeting after the meeting" is really a coin-toss. The Sept XX meeting is back into coin-toss territory. Who wants to tell Trump"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-07 20:14:10 UTC 486.3K followers, 30.5K engagements

"Governor Chris Waller Speech Thursday night was titled The Case For Cutting Rates. Among the reason he laid for why he will dissent at the July XX FOMC meeting for a rate cut is this passage. - But other data support the idea of a slowdown in hiring. There are widespread media reports of the difficulty new college graduates are encountering in finding jobs and in fact the unemployment rate for new grads is at a 10-year high far above the level before the pandemic. - This subject was tackled in an excellent story in Yesterdays Financial Times detailed by its author in the thread below. The"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-19 12:18:49 UTC 486.4K followers, 58.1K engagements

"The "Shadow Fed" is designed to make Powell a lame duck and irrelevant. So pay attention to the person coming next; they matter more. That is why I expect Trump to name his Fed nominee in the next few months (even though they do not take over until May 2026). And if the "shadow Fed" doesn't make Powell a lame duck Trump will move to fire him. Powell will not leave and sue. The point will be to marginalize Powell in the chaos further to elevate the "shadow Fed" nominee. --- @DLineCap is betting on a massive steepening of the curve as the market prices in rate cuts because Trump will demand"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-22 00:08:14 UTC 486.5K followers, 56.4K engagements

"Trump and Powell at the Fed building. -- Trump said he'd love Powell to lower interest rates and then he punched him in the arm. You can't make this stuff up"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-24 20:14:16 UTC 486.5K followers, 36.9K engagements

"More popular than Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson who recently had a X% approval rating"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-24 19:10:42 UTC 486.5K followers, 31.3K engagements

"A major plank of the Mar-A-Lago Accord *NATO ALLIES AGREE ON NEW DEFENSE SPENDING TARGET OF X% OF GDP"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-06-25 12:14:33 UTC 486.4K followers, 99.5K engagements

"Who has this market figured out . AKA the "smart money" Retail Investors"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-17 16:55:14 UTC 486.5K followers, 43.4K engagements

"Bessent is in Japan now. So hes not around the stop Trump. @MarkHalperin is suggesting Trump fires Powell this weekend"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-17 21:10:51 UTC 486.3K followers, 78.5K engagements

"1/7 I don't think it's about "fesh" USD for stablecoins. It's about regulatory clarity creating demand for stablecoins which in turn drives new demand for ST Treasuries. But I'm skeptical this will even happen. The GENIUS ACT potentially has a fatal flaw. @nic__carter 🧵"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-04 21:11:39 UTC 486.4K followers, 227.3K engagements

"Meanwhile inflation expectations are at their highest level since February and are trending upward"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-16 04:05:49 UTC 486.5K followers, 47.1K engagements

"What I Learned in My First Year Managing Fixed-Income * Performance Review * ETFs Are Eating the World * Actively Managed Bond Funds Work * Investing Is More Than Momentum * Valuations Always Matter * Bonds Are No Longer Crash Insurance"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-01-06 20:01:24 UTC 486.3K followers, 481.1K engagements

"Many are praising the coming surge in borrowing and defense spending in Europe as a good idea. Not everyone agrees. See below. I worry this is Europes version of the 2020 CARES Act to stimulate out of the pandemic shutdown. That massive increase in government spending with borrowed money surged inflation"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-03-15 15:55:30 UTC 486.3K followers, 171.3K engagements

"Bessent (orange) is passing on the Fed Chairman job Bessent is also telling Trump not to pick Hassett (red). So that leaves Kevin Warsh (blue) or Chris Waller (green)"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-17 20:03:37 UTC 486.4K followers, 38.4K engagements

"Chris Martin of Coldplay in Madison WI last night When they got to the kiss cam part Martin said: Ok were going to turn the camera on now. Please prepare yourself for the possibility you might be on the big screen. Then they proceeded to show nothing but dudes in silly costumes. No couples. Q: Did the lawyers make them do this"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-20 15:24:14 UTC 486.5K followers, 43K engagements

"Suggests the reason Trump is not about to fire Powell is they are not satisfied with the X names being floated. Specially: Bessent is best to stay at Treasury Bessent arguing not to pick Hassett Waller and Warsh have not made a case yet to get the job. New names coming"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-19 12:33:05 UTC 486.5K followers, 45.3K engagements

"The 10-year TIPS Inflation Breakeven rate has continued its uptrend over the last year. Not what you want to see if your demand is a XXX bps Fed rate cut. Or is this the fear of what a XXX bps cut will do to the economy More inflation worries are also emerging below"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-17 18:50:11 UTC 486.5K followers, 65.4K engagements

"Trump has not attacked Powell on Truth Social since Sunday. I was getting worried Trump was sick or something. All is normal Six minutes ago"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-23 13:17:13 UTC 486.5K followers, 80.8K engagements

"6/6 While the chart below is still well below XX% it remains in an uptrend. Why not greater than XX% Many still believe Trump doesn't want to fire Powell; instead he wants him to remain a punching bag. We'll find out shortly if this is a good assumption"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-15 04:24:33 UTC 486.5K followers, 52.5K engagements

"One-day tick chart of the 30-year yield reacting to Powell getting fired"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-16 15:35:31 UTC 486.5K followers, 233.2K engagements

"Recently Nvidia $NVDA (brown) surpassed $X trillion in market capitalization and also accounted for over X% of the S&P XXX. The last time a stock was over X% of the $SPX was XX years ago IBM (green) in 1969. Interesting historical facts: Also in 1969 the Justice Department filed an antitrust suit against IBM accusing it of being a monopoly (it was dropped in 1982). The only other stock to exceed X% AT&T was also accused by the Justice Department of being a monopoly in 1949. This case was successful and "Ma Bell" was broken up in 1984"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-17 12:08:10 UTC 486.5K followers, 33.5K engagements

"The problem is not interest rates. The problem is that home prices are too high because building codes are overly restrictive limiting the supply"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-23 14:53:07 UTC 486.5K followers, 27.3K engagements

"Coldplay in Madison WI last night This was the first concert in Camp Randall in XX years (the University's football stadium) Why I was told this by a reliable source (ok my brother-in-law who is a Badger Season ticket holder). They did it to raise more NIL money. Welcome to college sports in 2025"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-20 15:37:08 UTC 486.4K followers, 40.7K engagements

"5/6 Let ME offer a name . Kevin Warsh He is worth $X billion thanks to his wife Jane Lauder granddaughter of Este Lauder. Trump has known Warsh for decades and qualifies as "another billionaire Trump buddy" that few if any outside of the financial markets know"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-15 04:24:33 UTC 486.4K followers, 28.3K engagements

"Last Night the Q&A of his speech Waller Said: *WALLER: ADMINISTRATION HASN'T TALKED TO ME ABOUT FED CHAIR JOB This morning on Bloomberg he said: *WALLER: IF PRESIDENT ASKED ME TO DO FED CHAIR JOB I'D SAY YES As this chart shows Mission Accomplished"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-18 12:26:20 UTC 486.5K followers, 26.5K engagements

"I used to think that if there was reincarnation I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody. James Carville 1994 No one controls the bond market. Not the Fed not the Treasury. When the time comes for higher yields Powell and Bessent cannot stop it"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-03-24 03:00:08 UTC 486.3K followers, 53.4K engagements

"Recall that Trump sent out a bunch of letters over the weekend jacking up Tariffs. *TRUMP TO IMPOSE XX% TARIFF ON GOODS FROM CANADA *TRUMP SET TO KEEP TARIFF EXEMPTION FOR USMCA GOODS: US OFFICIAL *TRUMP SAYS US WILL IMPOSE XX% TARIFFS ON EU MEXICO FROM AUG. X As I write . The S&P is down X points or down X basis points. The 10-year yield is up less than X basis point. In other words there is effectively no market reaction to the tariffs Trump won. He does not have to TACO. Canada Mexico and the EU to quote a Trumpism don't have any cards to play. What POTENTIALLY changes this is a giant"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-14 14:32:06 UTC 486.4K followers, 50.3K engagements

"And tips in overtime will no longer be taxed"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-05 00:34:15 UTC 486.4K followers, 82.3K engagements

"@piptrain @truflation So Trump won . he can jack tariffs to the moon and it will not cause inflation (meaning China is paying the tariff not the US consumer.)"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-14 14:45:37 UTC 486.3K followers, 1043 engagements

"Bonus Did we kill off everyone playing in DeFi from 2020 to 2022 Back then we had similar arguments about stablecoins; interest rates drove their adoption. That was the appeal of OlympusDAO and UST; huge interest rates. Take away interest rates and what's left"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-04 21:22:56 UTC 486.3K followers, 31.8K engagements

"Consider that Powell could stay on as Governor after his term as Chairman ends in May 2026 as his term as Governor does not end until January 2028. He would be "blocking" Trump from getting another opportunity to nominate someone dedicated to cutting rates until early 2028. Fed Governor terms are XX years so one expires every two years (see the graphic). Adriana Kugler's term ends in January 2026. This is the spot that Trump will use to nominate Powell's successor. It would not be unprecedented. Marriner Eccles finished his chairmanship in January 1948 and remained a governor until 1951. ---"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-22 15:18:04 UTC 486.5K followers, 29.2K engagements

"1/3 Powell may have given Trump an opening to remove him. Will Trump take it Or does Trump want/need "Too Late" Powell to stay as Fed Chairman until May 2026 to use as a punching bag 🧵"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-13 22:15:24 UTC 486.4K followers, 142.9K engagements

"Tomorrow (Thursday) Trump is visiting the renovation of the Federal Reserve building for about an hour. Of course it's a publicity stunt. But it also represents a danger for Jay Powell. Every government construction project whether it's a municipal sewer project building a new high school or remodeling the Federal Reserve Building is rife with waste fraud and abuse. Sadly this is how government works. Giving the remodeling of the Federal Reserve building an anal exam can find "For Cause" reasons to fire Powell if this is what they genuinely want and are willing to look hard enough for it"
@biancoresearch on X 2025-07-24 03:52:35 UTC 486.5K followers, 37.6K engagements