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@paulg "@elonmusk Interesting point but an example might make it clearer. Can you think of a prominent person who's currently wasting his talents in software when he could be working on manufacturing and heavy industries"
@paulg on X 2023-04-09 16:52:56 UTC 2.1M followers, 1.7M engagements

"@mattyglesias In practice it's only possible when all your wealth is due to a single decision. If you have to get multiple 50/50 bets right the chance of winning by luck is 1/2n which approaches zero very rapidly"
@paulg on X 2025-07-13 15:52:42 UTC 2.1M followers, 45.5K engagements

"@typesfast Medieval Technology and Social Change The Copernican Revolution Life in the English Country House Painting and Experience in Fifteenth Century Italy Anabasis The Quest for El Cid The World We Have Lost"
@paulg on X 2025-06-05 15:25:43 UTC 2.1M followers, 102.3K engagements

""How could it be done to you and your ancestors and you turn around and you do it to someone else""
@paulg on X 2025-07-13 22:38:39 UTC 2.1M followers, 323.8K engagements

"@brian_armstrong @base What did you do to make it 10x faster"
@paulg on X 2025-07-18 09:21:22 UTC 2.1M followers, 65.1K engagements

"@traestephens Boston is the intellectual capital. Not just of the US but of the world"
@paulg on X 2025-07-18 17:25:28 UTC 2.1M followers, 204.5K engagements

"Teenage boys in the UK have spontaneously taken up golf. Not because of a marketing campaign or a charismatic young golfer. They just like it"
@paulg on X 2025-07-18 08:52:56 UTC 2.1M followers, 129.4K engagements

""The cases reaching us are of people who collapsed in the streets from lack of nutrition.""
@paulg on X 2025-07-19 14:36:37 UTC 2.1M followers, 1.6M engagements

"Wokeness will seem such a joke in retrospect that many people won't believe it was ever a serious problem. Even many of the participants will forget. But it really was a big problem"
@paulg on X 2025-06-09 20:59:59 UTC 2.1M followers, 30.8M engagements

"Carlson is falling victim to a common phenomenon. He doesn't understand how someone rich or famous got that way so he assumes there is nothing to understand"
@paulg on X 2025-07-13 15:49:14 UTC 2.1M followers, 108.5K engagements

"Jessica: Do think one day people will look back and ask how America could let this this happen Me: A lot of people are already asking that today"
@paulg on X 2025-07-23 17:31:57 UTC 2.1M followers, 359.6K engagements

"In fact the hugeness of the outcome explains why it's rational for n to be large. If there were XXX delivery apps the expected value of starting one would be a founder's share of at least a billion dollars"
@paulg on X 2025-07-17 17:33:18 UTC 2.1M followers, 29.7K engagements

"The New York Times on Netanyahu: "He pressed ahead with the war in April and July 2024 even as top generals told him that there was no further military advantage to continuing." It's over a year later and children are still being killed every day"
@paulg on X 2025-07-11 16:19:12 UTC 2.1M followers, 206.8K engagements

"What companies are overextended and are going to collapse if there's a recession Might be good to start asking that now"
@paulg on X 2025-04-29 20:54:47 UTC 2.1M followers, 841.4K engagements

"So basically you're free to say anything you're not forbidden to say. Right"
@paulg on X 2025-07-19 09:07:24 UTC 2.1M followers, 551.6K engagements

"I don't like Bill Ackman or Tucker Carlson but Carlson is mistaken if he thinks Ackman is a useless person with no actual skills. If a useless person with no actual skills could make as much money as Ackman has there would be millions of billionaires in America"
@paulg on X 2025-07-13 15:42:06 UTC 2.1M followers, 881.9K engagements

"Journalism was still a thriving industry in 1980. People like Woodward and Bernstein still aspired to work in it. By 2010 you could no longer make either of those claims. That left a gap and the gap was filled by different people with different motives"
@paulg on X 2025-07-17 16:05:04 UTC 2.1M followers, 56.9K engagements

"I started following Thomas Massie several months ago. He's one of the few genuinely independent-minded people in Congress. If you want to follow a politician who'll give you hope for the future I recommend him"
@paulg on X 2025-07-22 13:16:28 UTC 2.1M followers, 208.8K engagements

"There will definitely be some founders who are motivated by the prospect of a price advantage. But they'll mostly be like the founders who start companies to take advantage of government set-asides. Those companies don't grow into Googles"
@paulg on X 2025-04-07 16:14:26 UTC 2.1M followers, 46.5K engagements

"There's certainly a list of people who wired large amounts to Epstein. Banks keep records of those. Let's start with that"
@paulg on X 2025-07-07 22:22:26 UTC 2.1M followers, 835.7K engagements

"@tauqbit Depends how you use it. It's probably ok to use it to autocomplete the de facto macroexpansions that make up your source code in popular programming languages"
@paulg on X 2025-07-22 17:15:04 UTC 2.1M followers, 6550 engagements

"Beware of those who are excited about something that should at most be an unfortunate necessity. Stephen Miller shares this in common with Europeans against air conditioning. He's excited by deporting people. They're excited by the idea of people being uncomfortable"
@paulg on X 2025-07-14 18:24:59 UTC 2.1M followers, 227.3K engagements

"Bold leadership from Alexandr Wang. "Hiring on merit will be a permanent policy at Scale.""
@paulg on X 2024-06-14 05:35:28 UTC 2.1M followers, 384.7K engagements

"Bluesky's usage graph. The pattern here is bad. Spikes when a bunch of new people show up followed by declines when the new arrivals are disappointed"
@paulg on X 2025-06-04 09:25:57 UTC 2.1M followers, 1.1M engagements

"Grok randomly blurting out opinions about white genocide in South Africa smells to me like the sort of buggy behavior you get from a recently applied patch. I sure hope it isn't. It would be really bad if widely used AIs got editorialized on the fly by those who controlled them"
@paulg on X 2025-05-15 11:20:41 UTC 2.1M followers, 3.1M engagements

"If you want to start a software startup you should still learn to program. Even if AI writes most of your code you'll still be in the position of an engineering manager and to be a good engineering manager you have to be a programmer yourself"
@paulg on X 2025-07-22 12:46:17 UTC 2.1M followers, 401K engagements

"It's an illusion that there was a "bad old days" when Silicon Valley was funding crap startups. Most startups fail and failed ideas sound bad even if they could have evolved into something good. So past cohorts of startups will always seem crappy"
@paulg on X 2025-07-17 17:26:55 UTC 2.1M followers, 57.4K engagements

"The reaction of a British founder who went to visit YC: "It has a fantastic buzz about it a huge empowering energy but also a collaborative and encouraging kindness that could so easily be absent.""
@paulg on X 2025-07-17 18:49:54 UTC 2.1M followers, 81.3K engagements

"@DrewPavlou Unless your family has too many hundreds of years of history there in which case you get detained by ICE for looking Mexican"
@paulg on X 2025-07-19 18:23:34 UTC 2.1M followers, 1689 engagements

"@JohnArnoldFndtn Do you know why For example have murders of certain types decreased more"
@paulg on X 2025-07-21 19:19:42 UTC 2.1M followers, 5310 engagements

"Few of them realize it but people who say "I dont think that we should have billionaires" are also saying "I don't think there should be startups" because successful startups inevitably produce billionaires"
@paulg on X 2025-06-30 20:37:18 UTC 2.1M followers, 421.1K engagements

"One startup today needed a new name. In ten minutes we found a five-letter .com name that wasn't taken. It felt like 2005"
@paulg on X 2025-04-11 20:26:51 UTC 2.1M followers, 1.9M engagements

"@Austen "Works in UK" is a good filter for the salary half"
@paulg on X 2025-07-16 16:25:31 UTC 2.1M followers, 66.5K engagements

"Unexpected consequence of the improvement of AIs (though obvious in retrospect): they continue to hallucinate but as they improve their hallucinations become more authoritative-sounding. So the danger posed by hallucinations doesn't decrease as fast as AIs improve"
@paulg on X 2025-07-13 13:26:12 UTC 2.1M followers, 169.9K engagements

"But there's another even more important reason to learn to program. That's how you get ideas for startups: when you look around the world with a programmer's eye you see all the things that could be built but haven't been yet"
@paulg on X 2025-07-22 12:48:16 UTC 2.1M followers, 82.9K engagements

"We're about to see (if we aren't seeing it already) what happens when shamelessness and dementia converge"
@paulg on X 2025-07-17 10:53:14 UTC 2.1M followers, 169.8K engagements

"I remember reading allegations in 2016 about Trump having sex with underage girls. At the time I dismissed them but the energy the administration has put into preventing the release of the Epstein files has convinced me there must be some truth in them"
@paulg on X 2025-07-22 22:36:42 UTC 2.1M followers, 533.4K engagements

"Write a search engine that ranks results by relevance"
@paulg on X 2025-05-05 10:14:00 UTC 2.1M followers, 562.6K engagements

"Something I told XX yo: For the next X years or so everything I suggest will be idiotic. But don't worry I'll eventually start to become reasonable again"
@paulg on X 2025-07-17 10:52:06 UTC 2.1M followers, 193.3K engagements

"Journalists don't like Occam's Razor because it implies that events have more boring causes than the ones they'd like to write about"
@paulg on X 2025-07-07 15:01:02 UTC 2.1M followers, 97.4K engagements

"@Austen I often add "answer in one sentence.""
@paulg on X 2025-07-23 16:52:25 UTC 2.1M followers, 8203 engagements

"It's usually a bad sign when the founder who seems the most natural CEO wants someone else to be CEO. But in the last two days I've talked to two startups where it might not be. Might. It did work for Google"
@paulg on X 2025-07-14 18:16:23 UTC 2.1M followers, 126.8K engagements

"@BasedSamParker What sort of accent do you think your "founding stock" Americans spoke with"
@paulg on X 2025-07-22 12:57:08 UTC 2.1M followers, 68.5K engagements

"In retrospect one of the things that allowed wokeness to become so powerful at its peak was the decline of journalism as an industry. The kind of people who undertook its institutional capture in 2010 mostly couldn't have gotten hired in 1980"
@paulg on X 2025-07-17 16:03:34 UTC 2.1M followers, 391.8K engagements

"@jbrown94305 To point out the similarity between then and now and maybe make some powerful people decide "enough is enough.""
@paulg on X 2025-07-20 18:00:21 UTC 2.1M followers, 10.7K engagements

"13 yo's take on the generations: Boomers: old and out of touch Gen X: indistinguishable from Boomers Millennials: hippies Gen Z: tired and depressed Gen Alpha: brainrotted"
@paulg on X 2025-07-24 13:04:59 UTC 2.1M followers, 139.7K engagements

"@hdemott3 It is a bit puzzling. But "he knows what he did" doesn't mean he knows what's in the files. My guess is there's stuff in there that he thought was safely buried"
@paulg on X 2025-07-23 00:49:02 UTC 2.1M followers, 21.3K engagements

"The problem with starting a startup to make something for schools is that startups have to begin by selling to early adopters and schools aren't early adopters of anything"
@paulg on X 2025-01-05 19:41:45 UTC 2.1M followers, 414.5K engagements

"If you care about money or power stay close to AI because for the foreseeable future this will be the big source of change in both"
@paulg on X 2025-07-01 09:53:53 UTC 2.1M followers, 676.4K engagements

""We are to be blunt eating too much and probably eating too much of the wrong foods.""
@paulg on X 2025-07-15 14:06:40 UTC 2.1M followers, 85K engagements

"One of the strangest benefits of having kids is that it makes it much easier to figure out what advice to give people. You just ask "What would I tell my kids""
@paulg on X 2025-07-10 17:09:46 UTC 2.1M followers, 159K engagements

"The "nth delivery app" is a terrible idea unless it happens to be Doordash in which case it's worth XXX billion dollars and no one ever describes it in those terms"
@paulg on X 2025-07-17 17:29:23 UTC 2.1M followers, 42.5K engagements

"Explained to a rather surprised English woman that Elon isn't actually evil that evil people can't survive long as founders of tech cos because they need smart people to work for them and smart people can work anywhere"
@paulg on X 2024-12-22 17:50:40 UTC 2.1M followers, 10.7M engagements