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@fabreres "@OnodaCapital @ACapitalLP I wont pretend to understand why people would bid this above the deal px on break; but I cant think the froth can keep $CORZ $XX unless $CRWV touches the high $100s. Maybe thats too reasonable"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T10:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$MYX.AX: Lawyerly piece on trial outcome:"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T17:42Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$MYX.AX: Mayne has won. This was easily the strangest legal arb Ive monitored since TWTR which is surely the all-timer. What was Cosette thinking In MYXs annual report issued this week they attribute $XXX mm in transaction and litigation costs for the deal now all /1"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T06:06Z XXX followers, 5900 engagements

"So you have a highly probable though not assured deadline for close of XX November and a possible close of XX October. In my judgement FIRB will deliver its decision before the second court date; and Chalmers will rubber stamp it. Will Cosette appeal No idea. But the IRR /4"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-16T03:40Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Theyre attentive to political considerations but they are not answerable to the ALP; Chalmers is different but will he defy the FIRB and reward Cosettes cynicism I am extremely doubtful; Chalmers will have CEOs / industry lobbyists in a fit if he invalidates a US-led /3"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T21:06Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@AAGresearch Succession of serious losses and fleeing investor base. Ive not looked closely enough at Manolete but does it have a case on its books where it has expended X mm"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T07:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@ALGOV9 Interesting question. Yes to a degree: Mayne will soon be absorbed by Cosette who will acquire their liabilities including this litigation (cutting both ways: TXMD v MYX as well). So the question is whether Cosette will settle I suppose. I cant see why theyd do so"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T18:13Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"acquisition on the basis of minor (by no means trivial for those concerned but numerically minimal) job losses or substitutable manufacturing capacity. I also do not see why MYX would pursue a recut at considerable expense to their major shareholders; to the /4"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T21:06Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"The tendency of all of these reports with the exception of Capital Brief is that Cosette was struggling; in the AFR for example we learn that Cosettes witnesses frequently claimed they did not recall in response to questions from MYXs barrister. /6"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-14T23:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"And two commenters on HotCopper who attended different days of the hearing (below one from 26/9 another from 1/10): /5"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-14T23:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"I would be extremely wary of predicting MYXs success purely on the basis of these reports: ask $LCM.L about prognoses of success in complex commercial litigation. I would want a silk sitting through each day of the trial and providing an informed judgement; and even then I /7"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-14T23:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$MYX.AX: Where should this trade Consider $JLG.AX $IFL.AX and $RUL.AX. JLG traded solidly with overhanging MAC in principle at $XXXX ($5 deal) for a long stretch; RUL trades today ($5 deal) for $4.87; and IFL trades for $XXXX ($4.80). All are cash deals. Only MYX has had /1"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T21:06Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"One piece in Capital Brief ($) which summarised the closing submissions (11/10): /4"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-14T23:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$MYX.AX: AFR update"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T06:47Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@OrenGueta13 Thanks Oren Are you bagholding $ZIM with me"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Might be time to take my leave from $FWRD (cc. @acidinvestments) but call options with strike at $XX have rallied this week - although without a single buyer expressing equivalent confidence in a deal"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-01T07:57Z XXX followers, 1012 engagements

"$MYX.AX: I should not be awake; but just to clarify the timeline: $XXXX is XXXX% spread when this could close as early as the second court date (22 October) per MYXs PR today (below). Three pending risks: (1) FIRB has extended beyond the statutory deadline to 31/10 /1"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-16T03:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$FWRD: Down XXX% on no news I assume forthcoming announcement to explain it or just understandable fatigue from sellers waiting for deal to materialize"
X Link @fabreres 2025-09-17T20:25Z XXX followers, 1122 engagements

"the possibility of escaping an SID on the strength of a missed projection. But anyone with a law degree knows that judges can strive to distinguish where they worry about ramifying precedent or floodgates. For what its worth Im taking a modest gamble /11"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-14T23:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"And Capital Brief:"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T06:49Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"and Im long MYX into the decision. As Im XX hours behind Sydney Ill just have to wake up to the judgement. If anyone is in court DM me. Nothing above constitutes financial advice as always. GLTA. 12/12"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-14T23:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@lattice1234 @given2tweet Im more sanguine about $BHF like Matt because the reports were presenting the process as bilateral; maybe the c-suite commits seppuku to salvage their salaries in the face of a shareholder revolt. But if the deal as reported is real Id think they have to take it"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-09T21:16Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"on either eventuality is superb. Its also a long way down on break; again possible you could hedge by buying Hamilton Lane (below) which might have some correlation in px with the MYX / Cosette outcome given its fall today. This is a high risk situation but Ive /5"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-16T03:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@smelling_bs Correct. But MYX is now indemnified for costs in legal proceedings (not trivial) and FIRB intervention would be astounding. But I wouldnt count my chickens"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T12:56Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Bears repeating that I owe any insights I had on MYX to Jeremy @acidinvestments @toy59496 and @HarvestLaneAM. I wont victory lap this at all; its not over. But I will say Ive learned a great deal from you all; thanks"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T21:39Z XXX followers, 1014 engagements

"One piece by Ben Bailey (@BaileyHLAM) from 10/10 which described Cosette as up the creek without a paddle: /3"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-14T23:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$MYX.AX: Justice Black will be delivering his judgement today (15/10) at XXXX pm in Sydney. If he finds for Cosette then the ensuing schedule is basically immaterial but for reference: 22/10 is the second court date to finalize the scheme and 31/10 is FIRBs /1"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-14T23:03Z XXX followers, 3825 engagements

"deadline to recommend the acquisition. Its been difficult to know about the direction of the hearing. We had one AFR report by its Health editor on 21/9: /2"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-14T23:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements