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@NightOwlBiotech "We added $SRRA to our list of peer M&A as it was acquired pre FDA approval $KURA but nonetheless @ roughly the same multiple. Oncology still trails non-oncology even on a good day. $VSTM $TARS $ARDX $FOLD $DAWN $SNDX $XBI $NBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-02 14:50:46 UTC 1151 followers, 3505 engagements

"$VRNA is being acq by $MRK @ 0.45X 10-year analyst consensus sales ests ($10B EV). This appears on the high end v peers. VRNA will file a 14D9 in X weeks w/projected sales provided MRK that may differ from analysts $TARS $SNDX have recent approvals $FOLD $ARDX $TVTX $MIRM $XBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-09 16:26:19 UTC 1151 followers, 5191 engagements

"$FOLD was upgraded by Morgan Stanley this AM. Attached is a comparison of FOLD's 10-year revenue multiple v. peers (M&A & independents). $TARS & $APLS also trade at lower multiples (there may be good reason too) $XBI $AXSM $MDGL $ACAD $PTCT $MIRM $IONS $ALKS $CORT $SLNO $NBIX"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-17 12:45:03 UTC 1151 followers, 2299 engagements

"$APLS $JAZZ $HRMY $SRPT & $NBIX continue to trade at lower multiples of cumulative 10-year projected revenues than enterprise values paid in recent M&A (6 M&A peers incl $BIVV $GWPH $IMGN $CBST $ITCI $MDVN). Multiples also noted for $TGTX & $ASND for perspective. $XBI $LABU"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-04-24 14:00:06 UTC 1152 followers, 2286 engagements

"Top shows EVs paid as multiples of cumulative 10-year projected revenues/GM from XX recent larger comm'l-stage bio M&A. Range = 0.26X $SWTX - 0.78X $IMGN Bottom shows like multiples of pot'l M&A candidates $FOLD $RARE $APLS $TARS $AXSM $JAZZ $BMRN $MDGL $PTCT $ASND $TGTX $NBIX"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-06-18 16:18:04 UTC 1152 followers, 2637 engagements

"$NBIX & $SRPT are unique comm'l-stage bios @ $2B/yr/sales from $X XX years ago. The attached compares NBIX/SRPT valuation v 10-year revenue estimates to X peers acq the last XX years incl $ITCI $IMGN $GWPH $MDVN. $XBI $JAZZ $EXEL $ONC $ARGX $INSM $ASND $CORT $TGTX $AXSM $ACAD"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-04-06 19:00:59 UTC 1152 followers, 6642 engagements

"$INKT 's 1-day gain of XXX% appears to be a record going back to 1/1/2022 (post $XBI crash). Others north of XXX% since 1/1/2022 incl $VTGN $MNPR $PROK $SLNO $JSPR $SNTI $SRRK $PHVS $SYRE $CADL $SMMT $MDGL (watch dilutives) $CRBP $SPRO $BDTX $GYRE $JANX $NBTX $KALA $CMRX $RETA"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-13 04:15:42 UTC 1151 followers, 3319 engagements

"FY28 (Year 4) multiples of comm'l-stage oncology focused bios w/MCs $400MM+. $ITCI was acq @ 5.5X FY28 & $SWTX @ 2.6X. $XBI $NBI $IOVA $AUTL $DAWN $JAZZ $GERN $SNDX $LEGN $INCY $NVCR $GMAB $IMCR $IBRX $ONC $DCTH $EXEL $BPMC $ZYME $TLX $MRUS. PDUFAs = $REPL $NUVB $VSTM (P2) $CRDF"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-05-24 17:37:51 UTC 1151 followers, 10.9K engagements

"15 larger comm'l-stage bio valuations v. cumulative 10-year projected sales. Peers $IMGN $SWTX & X others were acquired @ XXXX - 0.78X 10-year projected sales (median = XXXX ave. =0.43) $RARE $SRPT $APLS $FOLD $HRMY $ANIP $NBIX $BMRN $JAZZ $AXSM $ACAD $PTCT $ASND $TGTX $MDGL"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-05-31 22:04:18 UTC 1151 followers, 8981 engagements

"$ZVRA is up XX% the last X weeks. We track all comm'l-stage bios via graphs like the X attached. ZVRA is the only graph that sticks out like this on as best we can tell no news/disclosures. Those like $VRNA $INSM & $RYTM had catalysts. Are we missing any ZVRA catalyst $XBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-11 19:31:59 UTC 1151 followers, 1694 engagements

"$VSTM is down XX% since approval If $VSTM analyst estimates are credible & if their combo therapy is worth a peer M&A multiple then. 95-98% of new cancer drugs in Phase X are never approved so if VSTM continues developing their pipeline as an independent then. $XBI $NBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-01 18:00:38 UTC 1151 followers, 1456 engagements

"$SNDX 10-year analyst consensus revenue ests v. mgmt prepared revenues of $VIE $DCPH & $KDMN. SNDX est excl Niktimvo. All generate like gross mfg margins If Rejuforj estimates are credible AND IF Rejuforj warrants a peer M&A multiple (2 HUGE IFS) then WTF O/c we c/b wrong $XBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-06-27 15:26:57 UTC 1152 followers, XXX engagements

"$SNDX forecast $87.8MM in FY25 (1st full year) Niktimvo sales ($12.116MM current royalty liab @ 13.8%). Per attached $KDMN SEC filing 1st full year Rezurock sales forecast @ $63MM. If SNDX is right Niktimvo year X sales dollars will be XX% more KDMN was acq for $1.9B"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-07 15:45:53 UTC 1150 followers, XXX engagements

"All XX comm'l-stage oncology focused bios v. all XX non-oncology w/MCs $1.5B+ & v. all XX w/MCs $160MM to $1.5B. Oncology as a whole trades @ lower FY28 multiples & have fared worse as a peer group YTD $XBI $NBI $IOVA $JAZZ $LEGN $GMAB $SNDX $ARGX $BBIO $CORT $KNSA $TWST $SPRY"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-20 19:30:53 UTC 1151 followers, 2814 engagements

"The next 2-3 weeks are the most exciting every quarter. 1st comm'l-stage oncology focused bio to report Q2 sales & update guidance this coming Thursday = $NVCR. $SNDX s/b next on 8/1/25 Attached see SP chge since 5/19/25 (after Q125 earnings). $DCTH $AUTL $GERN $DAWN $IMCR $XBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-19 18:54:31 UTC 1151 followers, 1771 engagements

"If they decide to sell This is my gripe with these biopharmas & frankly most investors here on X. Rezdiffra is patented through 9/17/2033. All drugs are worth some NPV of their cumulative projected sales thru patent expiration. Whatever Rezdiffra is worth today it is almost certain Rezdiffra will be worth less XX months from now because the cumulative revenue opportunity thru patent expiration will be that much smaller and then Rezdiffra will be worth even less another XX months later and so on and so on. Why in the world do these folks wait to sell MDGL is forecast to burn $300MM cash this"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-13 15:23:05 UTC 1151 followers, XXX engagements

"@drfager @WallStSai This is an enormous inflection point. Yesterday a Rezdiffra 10-year DCF had no terminal value. Today it does. $MDGL"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-16 13:09:11 UTC 1151 followers, XXX engagements

"A $SNDX $INCY Niktimvo revenue forecast using $RPRX data points per its 11/24 investor pres. RPRX notes its $350MM investment will be repaid 2.35X (or $822.5MM) by FY38. This would be $5.96B in cumulative sales. Our forecast results in an XXXX% IRR = "low double digits" per RPRX"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-06-29 20:45:38 UTC 1152 followers, 1435 engagements

"Expanded peer group showing market caps as multiples of cumulative 10-year analyst revenue estimates (some may or may not rely on new products) v. historic M&A peer group. More to come ASAP. $XBI $RARE $HRMY $APLS $FOLD $SRPT $NBIX $PTCT $JAZZ $AXSM $TGTX $ASND $ITCI $IMGN"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-05-06 00:11:52 UTC 1151 followers, 2814 engagements

"FY26 multiples for all XX comm'l-stage (& pre) oncology (MCs $200MM+) & all XX non-oncology (MCs $600MM+) focused bios $IOVA data in certain lung cancers imminent We'd guess M&A candidates incl $TARS $AGIO $JAZZ $TVTX $FOLD $TGTX $SNDX via $INCY $MRUS $BBIO $CORT $IONS $INSM"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-12 15:56:20 UTC 1151 followers, 3469 engagements

"Table notes the share price today v. @ FDA approval date for all XXX new comm'l-stage non-oncology focused bios since 1/1/13. These are tracked manually so o/c we may have missed X or X (or a split). $XBI Biggest winners: $VCEL $CPRX $ADMA $INSM $ZEAL $TGTX $LQDA $ALNY $RYTM"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-07-20 15:10:21 UTC 1151 followers, 8344 engagements

"Changes ($%) for all XX comm'l-stage oncology & XX non-oncology (MC $500MM+) bios since 6/28/24. Non-oncology clearly outperformed Biggest winners $VRNA $AKBA $CRMD $RIGL $CORT $SPRY $XERS $TGTX $SLNO $EXEL $TVTX Losers $SRPT $XFOR $IOVA $ADAP $KURA $MGNX $KPTI $GERN $IBRX"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-06-28 19:57:30 UTC 1152 followers, 3672 engagements

"$FOLD trades for 0.133X 10-year analyst consensus revenue est. Gross margins are comp & Galafold is patented-FY38. Most peers are acquired @ 0.32-0.40X. O/c there are risks from $SGMO & $QURE but we're unaware of any peer doing $500MM+ & guiding to $1B+ trading south of $2B $XBI"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-06-27 16:28:33 UTC 1151 followers, 2153 engagements

"$SWTX It appears $BIVV was the only comm'l-stage bio M&A the last XX years under $20B w/2 FDA approved pot'l Blockbusters. $DCP $DOVA & $AERI had X appr/late-stage but not $1B+ Other pot'l biopharma M&A (or s/b) in FY25 $CYTK $VKTX (maybe) $FOLD $AVDL $ZYME $MDGL $BBIO $SRPT"
@NightOwlBiotech Avatar @NightOwlBiotech on X 2025-03-13 14:11:57 UTC 1152 followers, 3897 engagements