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@halobrief "Russia has successfully adapted to sustain operations and make incremental gains. However every adaptation creates strategic costs that compound over time: Defense-industrial mobilization economic distortion and Chinese dependency Mass mobilization demographic collapse and social contract strain Tactical innovation global proliferation benefiting adversaries Nuclear posture revision deterrence credibility erosion Financial incentives mercenary military without ideological foundation When you quantify these factors across multiple time horizons a different picture emerges"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-17T04:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"New export controls give China unprecedented leverage over everything from F-35 fighters to AI chips and the West has no quick way out"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-17T05:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@ryanl_hass 2027 Taiwan Timeline: While Xi has reportedly set 2027 as a readiness deadline the current purge suggests either: (1) that timeline was never realistic or (2) Xi is willing to risk readiness gaps to ensure absolute loyalty before any potential conflict"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-17T22:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Emirates NBD recorded exceptional 2024 financial performance with AED XX billion net profit up X% with international operations contributing XX% of total income MenaFN Strategic Evolution: From regional Gulf bank to international banking group India acquisition: Single largest international expansion Total assets: $XXX billion with operations in XX countries The transaction establishes a template for future foreign banking M&A in India. If successful it validates Indias measured approach to financial sector liberalization and likely accelerates similar transactions among mid-tier private"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-18T20:56Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"THE HUMAN COST 90000-100000 people were hospitalized for heatstroke between May-September. Over XX% of heat-related deaths occur in people 65+. Heres the cruel irony: XX of XXX heat deaths in Tokyo happened in rooms with air conditioners that werent runningelderly people on fixed incomes choosing between food and electricity or simply from a generation that didnt grow up needing AC. XX% of Japanese farmers are over XX. Theyre facing a double crisis: the heat that damages their crops also threatens their lives. More than XX% of people who die alone at home from heat are elderly. Social"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-19T22:30Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"THE FOOD SECURITY THREAT Rice production is forecast at XXXX million tonsthe smallest crop since 2003. Heat stress during the ripening period creates chalky grains that are worth XX% less directly cutting farmer income. Heat-related crop damage is now reported across all XX prefectures. Fish species are migrating northward seeking cooler water disrupting an industry that has defined coastal communities for generations"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-19T22:30Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"The Chinese port network represents a fundamental restructuring of global maritime infrastructure control with implications across economic military and political domains. The network is: 1.Commercially Rational: Serves legitimate needs of worlds largest exporter 2.Strategically Valuable: Concentrated at maritime choke points with dual-use potential 3.Economically Beneficial: Creates jobs and GDP growth in host countries 4.Politically Leveraged: Generates diplomatic influence and policy alignment 5.Militarily Relevant: Provides logistics support for expanding PLA naval operations 6.Difficult"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-20T04:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@refsrc @Gokul_Sahni And HSBC upgraded India to overweight from neutral in Sep 2025"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-18T06:29Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The copper market is undergoing its biggest structural shift in XX years. Chinas dominance is ending. By 2031 its share drops from XX% to XX% of global demand. Meanwhile: US demand surges XX% (grid modernization + AI data centers) India jumps XX% (500 GW renewable energy infrastructure) Asia ex-China up XX% The math doesnt work: Supply peaks around 2026-2028 at 24M tonnes then DECLINES to 19M tonnes by 2035. Demand hits 33M tonnes by 2035. This isnt a cycle. Its a structural deficit. Trumps XX% tariffs on Chinese copper products accelerate supply chain regionalization. China controls XX% of"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-20T05:49Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Saudi Arabia has increased its mining exploration budget by more than XXX% linking it directly to its goal of reducing dependence on oil. Foreign joint ventures with Barrick Gold Ivanhoe Electric and Norinco are central to this expansion. The government aims to triple the sectors GDP share by 2030 and position the country within global critical-mineral supply chains. This is a calculated diversification move. The state is converting fiscal strength into long-term resource leverage. Success depends on how quickly exploration translates into extraction and whether environmental and technical"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-13T16:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The UK sanctioned Rosneft Lukoil X LNG carriers and Chinas Beihai terminal. It wont matter. The strategic partnership between a desperate seller and a determined buyer overwhelms the deterrent effect. Sanctions impose costshigher transaction fees insurance premiums vessel scarcitybut they dont prevent the trade. Welcome to the new geopolitical reality"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-16T04:06Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"F5 Networks confirmed a nation-state intrusion that stole BIG-IP source code and undisclosed vulnerability data. F5 SEC 8-K: intrusion detected August X DOJ authorized delayed disclosure no evidence of tampering with build pipelines NGINX or Distributed Cloud but files with BIG IP source code and undisclosed vulnerability info were taken. F5 customer advisory: confirms theft of BIG IP source code and work-in-progress vulnerability data; some customer configuration files in an engineering knowledge system were exfiltrated. Government and national alerts: CISA and partners warn of imminent risk"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-17T14:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"1. Competitive Dynamics China has achieved XX% overcapacity in key segments like Epichlorohydrin versus rest-of-world demand enabling it to supply entire Western markets from surplus alone X. Cost Structure Dutch/European producers face 4.5x higher gas costs than US plus additional 100M carbon tax and 40M higher electricity per major facility. X. Strategic Pattern Chinese expansion follows established pattern from solar and steel industries - state-backed overcapacity creation forcing Western competitor exits. X. Policy Response EU Clean Industrial Deal (Feb 2025) and Chemical Action Plan"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-18T00:47Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The tariff applies to both trucks AND parts. Trump also set a XX% tariff on buses. However Trump simultaneously expanded production credits: US-assembled vehicles get a credit equal to XXXX% of retail price through 2030 which offsets some tariff impact on imported parts. The tariff covers Class 3-8 trucks (large pickups cargo trucks dump trucks semi-tractors). Context: This follows May 2025 auto tariffs ($460B in imports) where Trump negotiated reduced rates with Japan UK and EU. GM estimates $5B gross tariff costs this year Ford $3B. The production credits help offset this for US assembly."
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-18T02:59Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The first US-manufactured Nvidia Blackwell wafer represents meaningful but incomplete progress toward semiconductor supply chain resilience. The achievement demonstrates that advanced front-end fabrication can be successfully onshored with sufficient investment and political will. However the persistent dependency on Taiwan for CoWoS advanced packaging reveals that true supply chain independence remains years away and billions of dollars in additional investment distant. This is not a failure of the CHIPS Act or TSMCs execution - rather it reflects the irreducible complexity of the most"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-18T05:36Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"HSBCs anti-AI thesis has X major issues vs. actual data: 1.Revenue: Actual FY25: TCS +4-5% Infosys +7.9% Wipro +6.6% YoY. AI driving growth (cloud +35% GenAI triple-digit) not contraction 2.Govt investment: Actual: 10372 crore ($1.25B) IndiaAI Mission approved March 2024. 18000+ GPUs 7-pillar framework state-level initiatives active flows: Actual: Equity Funds posted RECORD inflows in 2024. Korea saw 26-week high OUTFLOWS (Dec 2024). Taiwan also had record year - both benefited no rotation 4.Infrastructure: Actual: Google $15B (largest AI hub outside US) AWS $16.4B Microsoft $3B. India = 2nd"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-18T06:21Z XXX followers, 1246 engagements

"The announcement is being framed as a $XXX trillion investment but the fine print matters. JPMorganChase isnt creating a trillion-dollar equity fund. Its a ten-year financing and facilitation goal that includes loans underwriting and advisory across supply-chain defense energy and frontier tech sectors plus up to $XX billion of the banks own direct equity. In practical terms this formalizes whats already underway in policy and markets: a U.S. push to rebuild industrial and mineral capacity under the banner of national resilience. The initiative gives the bank a first-mover advantage in"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-13T20:27Z XXX followers, 2447 engagements

"The power calculation overwhelmingly favors participation. Azerbaijan faces temporary window where: 1.Russia cannot effectively oppose 2.Iran cannot effectively retaliate desperate for Muslim contributors 4.Israel needs energy security 5.Competitors not yet dominant"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-18T18:05Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"The strategic reality: Australia cannot fully keep Trump happy (demands likely exceed domestic political tolerance) but must keep him happy enough to preserve core alliance elements while maintaining sufficient China engagement to avoid economic catastrophe. This is the tightrope walk Australian policymakers facenot the cliff edge The Economist implies but not comfortable ground either"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-20T04:01Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The rally has multiple legitimate drivers beyond trade headlines. EM policy frameworks have genuinely improved. Valuations remain attractive relative to developed markets. But sentiment at early-2021 highs (pre-correction) and nine-month winning streak suggest euphoria risks alongside fundamental support. Not a bubble but not low-risk either"
X Link @halobrief 2025-10-20T06:10Z XXX followers, XXX engagements