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@siyul
"As promised here is the 2nd batch (20 ideas) from last week's "YTD underperformers" best idea thread. Enjoy and thanks to all for participating P.S. From batch one XX ideas one stands out as most compelling. I'm researching it and plan to write up in two weeks. I think many may find it appealing. Sign up at "Under the Hood" if interested"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-27T18:38Z 7596 followers, 25.1K engagements
"$UNFI 4Q25 I'm staring at this slide in awe. Often when a co in the midst of a '3Y turnaround' with mgt change (new CFO) and suffered a big setback (e.g. cyberattack w/ multi-week disruptions) it 'resets' to lower objectives. Unfi did exactly the opposite today. In its next 2Y projection below it raises top-line increases profit margins increases FCF by XXX% (from XXX% to X% of sales) and vows (implied) to deploy its entire Y26-Y27 FCF to pay down debts ($ XXX million). I rarely see anything like this. My gut feeling the confidence comes from its new CFO (Matteo Tarditi). He is onto something"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-30T12:41Z 7605 followers, 4955 engagements
"Is there a price point $SOC might be a buy tomorrow $XX $XX $X What's the FPSO route worth how to model the odds of returning SYU to Exxon A serious Q"
X Link @siyul 2025-10-15T00:00Z 7605 followers, 13.3K engagements
"@FishtownCap I think it takes effort to really understand the industry; it feels opaque to me"
X Link @siyul 2025-10-11T14:56Z 7603 followers, XXX engagements
"Offshore drilling bros' perf since "Under the Hood" initiated a buy on $VAL in Feb Y25. $VAL XX% $NE XX% $BORR XX% $TDW XX% $RIG XX% Even better XX% since I pounded the table and doubled down on March X at $31/share"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-24T23:10Z 7607 followers, 3837 engagements
"@Untiroalaire Link to the company"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-20T20:43Z 7599 followers, 4021 engagements
"I read a few $SOC posts with a continued bullish tone after Sable's FPSO move today. Fair to say no $SOC bull thesis is centered on FPSO alternative. Continued bullish stance feels "Investment thesis sliding / goalpost moving " frankly. How do I think of Sable's FPSO move It feels like a son was prohibited from dating a girl; he is angry and he chooses to indulge himself in porn videos to "punish" his parents. Certainly a hail-mary move; "what's next" gets increasingly complex to predict I wish it works out for Sable (and all shareholders) simply because that is what the right thing shall"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-30T01:58Z 7606 followers, 26.4K engagements
"$UNFI ER tmr morning high volatility expected. A quick recap: In the midst "3Y Turnaround plan" Unfi suffered a cyberattack in June and lost 30%+ mkt cap. "Under the Hood" covered it in late July after it recovered half. It has since recovered all and remains a "Buy" at UTH. What to watch tmr: X. Final cyber-attack impact (projected $65-75Mn ebitda) X. Its profitability against implied $680-720Mn NTM Ebitda (inferred from July release). If it confirms that target it is valued at under 5x NTM Ev/Ebitda. (historically ranged 6x-9x)"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-29T20:28Z 7605 followers, 4054 engagements
"@ClarkSquareCap @stoked_on_waves @kingdomcapadv @dan_rogala even shaq was impressed"
X Link @siyul 2025-10-13T23:04Z 7603 followers, XXX engagements
"A long day catching up $C Citi 3Q25 script now. Sometimes when Michael Mayo (a top Citi bull) asked half-joking half-tough Q Jane Fraser wears "I can crack a joke" hat. Today Mayo asked "how you balance between "celebrating a win (at $100/share)" and "working hard": Jane is all business: "There isn't a single person (at citi) who is declaring victory. we got a long way to go". Love it. Btw what an awesome quarter for Citi It remains one of my best calls from 2023 at the high 30s. It was a straightforward thesis that made sense of the world in retrospect yet it was met with laughter"
X Link @siyul 2025-10-15T03:59Z 7607 followers, 4693 engagements
"Just a quick update on the August idea thread. $LYB was the most mentioned name and I spent the last few days diving. It checked a few of my "Good Assets at Distressed Price" boxes: ✔Typical cyclical business at/near the trough earnings; ✔A large-scale player with a made-in-the-US cost advantage (uncommon but interesting); But here is the issue - the upside assuming it overcomes trough and back to normalized earnings is XX% to 100%. Not bad but compared to some other "Good Assets At Distressed Price" players on my radar upside feels underwhelming"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-09T20:35Z 7605 followers, 25.7K engagements
"What's your best idea that has a negative YTD performance Ideally 2-3 sentences explaining. When everyone is victory dancing their multi-baggers I want to hear from folks with conviction and doubling down on their underperformers"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-20T17:52Z 7608 followers, 103.7K engagements
"Among 50+ ideas from my best ideas for 'YTD underperformers' thread I find $LODE the most intriguing. Over the last X weeks I reviewed SEC filings studied the industry setup exchanged thoughts with several involved investors and spoke with the CEO. I could easily write a '100 page' but I don't like long ones. I compiled the most relevant info into XX pages available at "Under the Hood" (link in bio) today. My special thanks to @whirlybard @1035_Capital for your insights your excellent write-ups and your openness to hear my pushback again and again lol. Disclaimer: I started a position in $LODE"
X Link @siyul 2025-10-12T17:24Z 7607 followers, 36.4K engagements
"Latest "What I'm buying" updates (and some good pushback/discussions) from sub_stack chat last Friday. $PLAY"
X Link @siyul 2025-10-05T18:01Z 7596 followers, 3327 engagements
"@Fenmagne @FluctusCapital fyi on $LYB"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-09T20:39Z 7596 followers, 1457 engagements
"Nominate a stock that has an intriguing setup but lacks a comprehensive / updated write-up that I shall give it a shot"
X Link @siyul 2025-08-06T21:21Z 7605 followers, 18K engagements
"I asked for the best ideas for "YTD underperformers" category. I'm floored by the quantity and quality of the replies. 50+ ideas I'm still organizing. Here is the 1st batch. Enjoy and thanks for your contributions"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-22T20:13Z 7608 followers, 89.9K engagements
"$unfi up XX% now. Market wakes up. as I said pre-market X% under-appreciates the magnitude of this turnaround. It is not done yet imo"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-30T17:00Z 7605 followers, 2590 engagements
"@NestBetter To me a mine's PV10 val from its latest report + a few interested party' inquiry is far less a qualified pricing event than a secondary market equity stake sale. fwiw I would be more than happy to be proven wrong about this"
X Link @siyul 2025-10-13T02:55Z 7599 followers, XXX engagements
"@CRSRBL1 Interesting idea. Is weak Q3 guide supported by a consistent macro trend (e.g. peers guide down too) or more a Crox specific concern"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-20T18:07Z 7597 followers, 3402 engagements
"@TidefallCapital @CRSRBL1 So what went wrong i mean Crox is Crox (i have a few pairs) never expect magic or quality from Crox right"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-21T00:31Z 7607 followers, XXX engagements
"$LYB was the most nominated idea from August stock thread. I looked at $LYB in early Sep (at $55). I like the story but a 50-100% upside doesn't feel compelling enough for a deep dive. Fast forward another XX% down at $XX now All else equal it starts to feel compelling. Is it time for a deep dive"
X Link @siyul 2025-10-11T14:47Z 7607 followers, 25.8K engagements
"Always look for "fat pitch" like 2023's Citi $C: ✔a dominant player in an essential business ✔ long-term relatively durable earning powers ✔"Hated" sentiment with cyclical and transitional issues Few fit the bill in this hot market. Spaces I'm looking at are: Chemicals (e.g. $LYB $DOW) Consumer discretionary ( e.g. $PLAY* $CROX). What's yours * I have a position in $PLAY"
X Link @siyul 2025-10-15T12:28Z 7607 followers, 2865 engagements
"@FluctusCapital @Fenmagne I don't have a minimum return target per se case by case. Thanks for sharing ideas just note it's interesting to hear cannabis REITs' ideas as cannabis is on my research pipeline"
X Link @siyul 2025-09-10T12:14Z 7603 followers, XX engagements