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@philippilk "How China intends on popping the AI bubble. 🔪🫧"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-11T15:04Z 40.1K followers, 13.6K engagements

"3/ The fallout from the comments was so bad that @Lagarde had to say that France was not heading for a bailout"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-14T12:19Z 40.1K followers, XXX engagements

"Fund managers also now well aware that a meltdown in private equity/credit - which will probably come on the back of a burst AI bubble - is very likely to lead to a systemic credit event. There is now a decent consensus that the US is heading toward a 2008-style crisis. 📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T08:32Z 40.1K followers, 10.2K engagements

"The USD is one of the worst performing currencies of the year. I guarantee you cant find many years in post-WWII history where that statement holds true. 💵📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-06T16:27Z 40.1K followers, 4753 engagements

"Fiat currencies can only be debased relative to one another. Euro is trading high. Dollar is down. Its dedollarisation guys just accept it. Everyone knows it now. 💵📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-07T15:25Z 40.1K followers, 6868 engagements

"@VanishingVector @EdTrainSociety You guys are a complete pack of amateurs. It's embarrassing"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-13T14:39Z 40.1K followers, XX engagements

"From Dan Wangs new book. Interesting thesis. Engineers do tend to think in terms of solving problems. Lawyers profit when there are unsolvable problems"
X Link @philippilk 2025-08-17T09:27Z 40.1K followers, 3.5M engagements

"Fiscal sustainability is measured as debt/deficit as a % of GDP. So if an immigrant adds more to GDP than they take from the public purse they net stabilise the fiscal balance. Im always shocked how poorly this is understood in online discussions on migration"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T08:40Z 40.1K followers, 11.9K engagements

"It is s complete mystery to me why Trump would go YOLO on China at the same time as the AI-driven tech bubble is being watched nervously by pretty much everyone. 🙈📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-11T09:41Z 40.1K followers, 9344 engagements

"Trade war coverage is just getting weird lol"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-16T11:23Z 40.1K followers, 1740 engagements

"@G0ADM That whole sector is more to blame for Britains current problems than anyone except maybe the COVID-brigade. Anyway enjoy fruitlessly opposing migration. HMT will inevitably direct the looming Faragewave to keep the country from bankruptcy"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T10:26Z 40.1K followers, 1765 engagements

"EU leaders are trying to play the diplomatic games the US played in the Obama era. But Finland is not the US. The rest of the world watches this stuff and concludes you are a rogue state that promotes conflict globally. Finland is not large enough to get away with this. 📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T07:25Z 40.1K followers, 10.5K engagements

"The link between interest rates and the USD index continues to weaken. Higher interest rates just cannot seem to attract capital into the US anymore. It really seems like something has changed in the fundamentals of USD. 💵"
X Link @philippilk 2025-06-26T06:48Z 40.1K followers, 59K engagements

"If the export controls the Chinese just put in place really do tank the NASDAQ - which in turn will unwind what is left of USD hegemony - historians are going to surely note how dry the MOFCOM statement was that launched the economic nuclear weapon"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-12T12:27Z 40.1K followers, 11.2K engagements

"What this shows is that all the smart money knew that AI has been a bubble since the DeepSeek shock. They let the dumb money (@ScottGoetz_) inflate the bubble to keep the economy ticking over hoping for a good outcome in US-China trade talks. Now the deluge 📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-12T09:02Z 40.1K followers, 8571 engagements

"Those look suspiciously like hypersonic glide vehicles. That implies that North Korea has weaponry that is far more advanced than the United States which is still using XX year old Tomahawk designs. 🚀"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-11T15:06Z 40.1K followers, 7372 engagements

"@xavierfm3 @vonderleyen @sikorskiradek Theyre making them buy weapons for a war they started but wont finish. And their vassals obey. Pretty unappealing"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T20:39Z 40.1K followers, XXX engagements

"Mention that HM Treasury control UK migration policy for budgetary reasons and the grifter right-wing in Britain start wailing about random barely related issues. These people are not serious. They just distract from the actual issues facing the country. Waste of time. 📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-14T19:46Z 40.1K followers, 5060 engagements

"Interestingly bonds rallied on Friday in a way they didnt after Liberation Day. This likely signals that if the AI bubble does blow domestic investors will put some downward pressure on bond yields. Whether thats enough to counter foreign money exiting remains to be seen"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-13T06:17Z 40.1K followers, 2429 engagements

"When are British anti-migrationists going to figure it out. HM Treasury tells every PM that comes in that their choice is between continued migration and state bankruptcy. None dare resist. Without getting birth rates up this is the fate of Britain - no matter who is PM"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-14T13:01Z 40.1K followers, 98.9K engagements

"33% of fund managers now think the biggest tail risk to their portfolios is the bursting of the AI bubble. The only money still driving the Mag X is dumb money and stuck money - and maybe moving forward a few brave speculators. 🫧"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T07:37Z 40.1K followers, 2061 engagements

"The RW Anglo slop accounts have spread a ton of rubbish about the economics of migration to prevent debate about what is actually going on. Dependents are now the key way that the UK government issues visas to workers to prop up the collapsing fiscal situation. 📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T08:57Z 40.1K followers, 5098 engagements

"👨👩👧FAMILY POLICIES DO WORK: A simple very model based on Poland's experience suggests that they have - and we can show that if Poland had followed this trajectory there would almost half a million more Poles today. ➕Over the past decade and a half Poland and Hungary have had very similar trajectories: conservative central and eastern European countries with high catch-up economic growth. In 2010 when the Hungarian family policies were implemented Poland had a slightly higher birth rate than Hungary. Since the implementation of these policies Hungary's has increased and Poland's has fallen."
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-07T12:41Z 40.1K followers, 5781 engagements

"This is real fantasy football stuff. If the US tried to remove China from SWIFT or whatever the RoW would get to choose between using paper dollars in trade or having access to Chinese goods. USD use would contract overnight USD would collapse and the US would hyperinflate. 💵"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-12T12:37Z 40.1K followers, 16.8K engagements

"More details on the fiscal mess in Romania. It's pretty amazing that policymakers there ignored a current account deficit of over X% of GDP. But here we are. And imagine they had the nerve to tell Hungarians and Slovaks that Romania was a richer country. Chutzpah"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-10T13:01Z 40.1K followers, 2260 engagements

"These people have literally no idea what they are talking about. Debt/deficits are measured as a % of GDP. The average migrant in UK adds around 30k to GDP annually and costs HM Treasury maybe 3k or so. The anti-migrationists need to get this right or nothing will change"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T06:38Z 40.1K followers, 134.7K engagements

"Trump admin in hard reverse as we approach market open. I think the messaging might just about work. But the AI bubble has taken another credibility hit. Only dumb money and money that is forced to be there is invested in Mag X these days. 🫧"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-13T11:17Z 40.1K followers, 9435 engagements

"Can someone explain to me how a Truth Social post reverses these controls Until now it has been very hard to get China to reverse gear on any controls it has put in place"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-12T17:31Z 40.1K followers, 6214 engagements

"This is what is currently propping up the trade deficit and the dollar in America. The tech bubble is propping up US living standards. 🫧"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-16T11:25Z 40.1K followers, 5044 engagements

"Im not sure if I believe Trump is allowing bureaucrats to impose obscure trade controls on China that spur MOFCOM to issue detailed export controls on rare earths so that he can trade the market. Lol"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-12T17:09Z 40.1K followers, 4860 engagements

"The fake polls in Hungary are getting faker both in form and in content. Not only does this poll just manifestly look fake. It also has a result of +18% for the opposition. These are the sort of phony polls they ran in Georgia before the last election"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-13T08:40Z 40.1K followers, 3425 engagements

"Whats happening in Hungary right now is wild. When the political opposition decides to start calling to overthrow the state on behalf of a foreign power dont be surprised when really gnarly stuff starts coming out. A patriotic opposition would be much more successful than this"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-10T11:51Z 40.1K followers, 5615 engagements

"Between 2021-27 the EU budget for NGOs (CERV) was around 1.5bn. The new EU budget proposal is advocating increasing that XXX% The US has realised that USAID is discrediting outdated political technology and a waste of money. The EU hasnt 💶 @MikeBenzCyber"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-07T11:39Z 40.1K followers, 4067 engagements

"Compare the error ranges on the Hungarian pro-gov polls versus the opposition polls over time. The error on the opposition polls has risen around XXX% over time. The error on the pro-gov polls has risen maybe 50%. The opposition polls look incredibly dubious and fake. 🗳"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-13T09:46Z 40.1K followers, 3895 engagements

"Late-stage end-of-empire looting is kicking into high-gear. The only rule: grab everything thats not nailed down - oh and support @_FriedrichMerz the German mark. 📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-07T07:41Z 40.1K followers, 9752 engagements

"Its very clear what narrative about the war is going to win out long term. I suspect that in XX years having supported this war will be akin to having pushed for the invasion of Iraq in 2003"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-06T11:16Z 40.1K followers, 12.1K engagements

"@G0ADM Just remember: every failed war you back in Eastern Europe and every "investment" in a Trident SLBM that does not fire means another wave of migrants to prop up the collapsing financial structure used to support it. That's the hard reality"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T10:57Z 40.1K followers, 6610 engagements

"4/ But the reality is that French bond yields are now above Italian bond yields. France is barrelling toward a fiscal crisis"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-14T12:19Z 40.1K followers, XXX engagements

"The British anti-migrationists will not acknowledge this. Their reaction is emotional. So no real planning or policy will be formulated. And soon - very soon - Britain will get the Faragewave"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T11:21Z 40.1K followers, 3573 engagements

"Im a European. I hate seeing the EU getting robbed blind by an obvious grift. At the same time when you have complete losers like @vonderleyen and @sikorskiradek in power it is hilarious to watch them get looted by smarter and more powerful people. Losers. 🍿"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T20:31Z 40.1K followers, 3236 engagements

"@leftyclowns Then call it XX or XX. It still adds more to GDP than to net spend. It holds the ratios down. Thats the goal"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T06:59Z 40.1K followers, XXX engagements

"Increasingly the UK can be thought of a Guns and Migrants economic model. Leaders focus on maintaining global relevance and pay for it by replacing more and more of their population. Very strange economic model in my humble opinion"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T11:37Z 40.1K followers, 5579 engagements

"@G0ADM Every. Single. Time"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T10:11Z 40.1K followers, 6790 engagements

"With Bloomberg and IMF officials seemingly calling a market crash its worth asking how would one be averted I guess one possibility is that Trump comes out on Monday and signals hell concede to Chinese demands in the trade war Hard to think of anything else. 📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-12T09:17Z 40.1K followers, 4567 engagements

"The Chinese have been developing their rare earth game since at least 1992. Wow"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T07:33Z 40.1K followers, 3463 engagements

"Global peace summit: inbound. Its not easy. Its not guaranteed. Im the first one to criticise some of the weirder stuff. But there is some progress in the Middle East. The only choice is to keep pushing"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T20:37Z 40.1K followers, 3287 engagements

"@Lagarde 4/ But the reality is that French bond yields are now above Italian bond yields. France is barrelling toward a fiscal crisis"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-14T12:21Z 40.1K followers, XXX engagements

"The duality in markets these past three years is nuts. You have the tech bulls and the gold bugs in the lead. The former are USD believers who think AI is heading toward the singularity. The latter think that the US empire is collapsing and AI is a giant bubble. 🌶"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-14T07:59Z 40.1K followers, 5101 engagements

"If this doesnt get resolved fairly quickly the AI bubble will likely burst and the entire US economy will unwind in a way that very few people are ready for"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-11T13:11Z 40.1K followers, 22K engagements

"No. Immigration is completely destabilising Britain. By 2080 XX% of the population will not be born on the island. The country is heading off a cliff. But no one will discuss the link between migration and fiscal sustainability that is driving the country there. 📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-15T07:11Z 40.1K followers, 11.3K engagements

"@VanishingVector @EdTrainSociety All you guys seem to be "kids from Budapest". Why can't the pollsters defend their dodgy polls in public I think we all know the answer"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-13T14:54Z 40.1K followers, XX engagements

"Apparently this is what triggered the Chinese to pop the AI bubble. It looks increasingly like a bunch of deep state securitocrats who have no competencies on the economy have set the US state apparatus on autopilot. The destination The side of a cliff at approx 600mph. 📉"
X Link @philippilk 2025-10-11T17:01Z 40.1K followers, 16.9K engagements

"1/ Is history repeating itself in the US housing market Economic historians are well aware that Florida often turns out to be Ground Zero for housing market crashes. This was the case in 1929 and in 2008. Is the decline in condo prices telling us a housing bubble is popping 🧵"
X Link @philippilk 2025-09-25T11:26Z 40.1K followers, 5038 engagements