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@TheSignalSage "I've taken on way too much Risk of Ruin so I'll execute some orders to resolve the risk. PRIORITIES 1I want NOT to get ruined (max XX% drawdown) 2I want to make shitloads of money 3I want to keep the Bitcoin STRATEGY 1Solve the risk get out of lower conviction plays at a profit. High Conviction is MTPL Mid Conviction is BMNR and SBET Low Conviction is ALTBG Shit Conviction are the others I put in a Sell Order for $BMNR at USD XX. I think it's still a winner but I need to resolve my Risk of Ruin. I will still make a few percent of profit on the position. I don't want to incur losses in the"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-24 18:15:22 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements

"@DrflemmeMusic @signalcheckio Got it What about $SQNS They have just made a purchase and now hold the most BTC in France. NAV multiple of XXXXX. I haven't conducted extensive research on that company but it appears promising"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-21 15:11:22 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements

"For the past X months I have been solely focused on investing in BTC treasury companies. I started with $MSTR (Realized EUR 13k) and rotated to $MTPL ($MTPLF $DN3 $3350.T; Realized EUR 32k) and $ALTBG ($BCHXF Realized 24k). I would say: "BTC treasury companies are a bubble but I'll get out on time". After the bust of that run-up I started buying the dip. And then it kept dipping and I kept buying disregarding my risk management. Now I find myself with a real way too high Risk of Ruin. I think that for some of the BTC treasury companies there is a possible next run-up but then again maybe"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-24 21:18:41 UTC XXX followers, 1678 engagements

"I'll be reading this X more times. After that I'll have another look at my Kelly Criterion model (which is advising me XX% in Cash). Currently I'm overexposed. I feel I have the right bets with $MTPL ( $MTPLF / $DN3) $SBET and $MSTR but I don't have enough cash. I'm thinking of selling part of my $BTC. The reason is that the Risk-Reward pales in comparison to the BTC-Treasury Companies. However I have a natural reluctance to sell $BTC. Alternatively I take decent profits after my current bets start to pay off"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-21 07:43:54 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements

".@Dailyhodlpoll How do you view $BTC An asset to buy and sell when its risk-reward changes Or do you hold it forever Do you treat it as a risk-free asset"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-24 23:08:07 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements

"Thank you for reading I'm hoping (oh the hope) that I'm still early with my conclusion and find ways to exit my positions at a profit in the upcoming days/weeks. I feel confident I'll be able to do it for $SBET $BMNR and $CCCM. However $ALTBG $SQNS and $VANA are going to be a more difficult exit. What do you think of my exception for Metaplanet Do you think an mNAV of X could still be warranted for the stock"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-24 23:02:04 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements

"I'm not buying the dip in $ALTBG. Today's announcement of a EUR XXX million buy is an announcement for Ants. I still expect another announcement of BTC convertible debt. This is a combination with the launch of the US ticker which will probably give some fireworks. However I plan to get out after the next rally because it's all too unpredictable for me which makes it impossible for me to form a reasonable opinion on their execution"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-21 09:01:47 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements

"I saw my portfolio drop by over EUR 30k in the past X days. It's "only" a 10-15% drawdown of my portfolio; however I'm not yet used to it. But I survived; I didn't panic (too much) and didn't sell (much). I did come to the conclusion that I wasn't holding enough cash so I solved it inelegantly. I sold my $BTC holdings (let's see if I change my mind on this later) at a profit. The reason is that I hold BTC Treasury Companies with similar exposure; however with a much better Risk-Reward. The only way to reverse this decision is when I decide to sell my BTC Treasury Companies. Then I'll port the"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-23 11:28:55 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements

"Friday was a red day with $SBET down XX% and $ALTBG down 18%. $SBET and $MTPL ($DN3 / $MTPLF / $3350.T) are reaching their bottoms and are preparing for takeoff. It's going to be pretty legendary. $ALTBG I'm no longer touching. The challenge is that their ATM financing is slow and their BTC convertible debt is irregular. Here I'm a bit more speculative. If a decent BTC convertible debt is announced it will likely take off like a rocket; until then it will likely continue to decline. I'm unwilling to sell it now as it's a red bag and certainly has potential. However after the next runup I'll"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-19 09:32:30 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Follow up on resolving my risk of ruin. Limit sell order at X% profit (Am I a scalper). $ALTBG $SBET $BMNR $SQNS $VANA $CCCM Metaplanet can stay 👉🏻👈🏻 $MTPLF $DN3 $3350.t"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-25 09:55:43 UTC XXX followers, 1175 engagements

"We got a small position in $BMNR Also happy to see that @pakpakchicken bought into it Thats always a good signal"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-24 15:52:31 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements

"I am looking to sell equities to move EUR 60k extra to cash. I'm learning daily and I realize I need to focus more on managing my Risk of Ruin. $SBET was in profit yesterday. I knew from the price action that it would likely decline again today; however I accepted it as I believe a significant breakout is imminent. I rarely close red bags at a loss except when there is a structural market problem (ETH crash earlier this year). Everything is a red bag now so $SBET would have to be sold first (assuming it gets in profit first). This would also mean I sell a winner before some other red bags"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-23 14:04:06 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@ClercLionel1 Thanks Are you good Or in a similar situation Just posted my current resolution Its a bit rough but anything better than getting ruined Id say"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-25 09:58:19 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements

"$SBET and $DN3 ( $MTPLF $MTPL $3350 ) are having the best odds in my opinion. mu = expected performance drawdown = max expected drawdown In bold text it includes the possibility of a bear market. In plain text it excludes the possibility of a bear market. Simple method to understand how much to invest in these assets: Acceptable Portfolio Drawdown / Max Drawdown. (Kelly) Imagine I want to have a maximum XX% portfolio drawdown. Bear market believer: 33%/75% = XX% (Max to invest) Bull market believer: 33%/10% = XXX% (Use 3x leverage) With that allocation bet on the assets with the best odds"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-22 11:00:24 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@ClercLionel1 I love all Elon Musk's companies. However great stocks aren't necessarily great investments. I think being in cash for a bit will give me a bit more clarity"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-25 15:19:57 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements

"@DrflemmeMusic @signalcheckio No worries Got it Thanks for the explanation. It's very insightful. Are you planning to hold for a long time"
@TheSignalSage on X 2025-07-22 11:05:40 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements