[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@PlaysSaheb "@cyclonicwx Was just curious as it seems 94B and 92A are missing"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-24T18:33Z XX followers, XX engagements

"WV IR obs. back down to -XXXX Deg C already finding stability quickly and drying into low levels likely in centre of circ. Over 8h now with intermediate below -X Deg C WV IR TC intensity likely to increase sig. with effective LH release 925mb layer to sfc mixing 160-165kts"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T01:59Z XX followers, XX engagements

"@AndyHazelton There was a stagnant MERC that did develop before the loop track and that held back intensity before further strengthening infact there were many attempts and some got close with it intensifying some later from it but ultimately the one that merged must've felt the effect of"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-29T20:42Z XX followers, 1888 engagements

"Uh oh is indeed correct Melissa is more quickly having a shrinking eyewall with the rate of CB banding dramatically increasing and a wobble effect with the eye including the CDO minus eye gradient sharpening up very quickly this could lead to faster less expected pressure"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-26T22:38Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"I refer to this effect as rapidly rapid wobble eyewall contraction (I call RWEC) which Milton performed as it was just N of Yucatan. On full IR loop it is apparent rather than using the latest X frame (more typical)"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-26T22:47Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"Very analogous TC CDO evolution (particularly post CDO T7.0 type consolidation) to Typhoon Yagi 24' #melissa"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-27T00:30Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"New vs old Looks to be wobbling now more characteristic of EWRC effect continuing the MERC effect still generating instability after the long term stable it held NW quad and all CDO. Not like the RWEC on IRG + radar prior. #melissa"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-27T00:59Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"I'm pretty sure thats a 20Deg C eye with inner gradient -69-75 to CDO max (CB ring) of -85Deg C which is extremely rare and usually T7.5 Dvorak (of course there are inhibitors with eye symmetry warming WV IR inner CDO roundness outer CDO persistence) casually achieved in ATL"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-27T03:14Z XX followers, XX engagements

"I personally have to add that the TC denoted intensity is also random and the 6h avg. is looking at a CB ring and presuming mature development where it is not or it is assuming the p/w with consequent pressure drops on steroids with low values then isnt adjusting to recon:"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-27T03:58Z XX followers, XX engagements

"If you look closely to Melissa inner CDO towards eyewall there are rapid streamers of CBs continually cyclonic orbiting around a very distinct mature TC intensification seen in very stable cores of the most robust Atl TCs Milton had this sustained for a good duration in RWEC"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-27T04:46Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"I am still conflicted as I do not think the TC wobbled much in consequence to eyewall contraction I don't think that suits this case Milton was a very unique case this is likely what Levi mentioned as well as OHC pockets DAI extrusions completed shear pocket removed etc"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-27T04:50Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Symmetric CDO cooling and a very smooth overall CDO minus eye gradient with small maxima in NE any obtuse eye shape to mesovort. Almost purely red (on radarscope would be 60dBz) reflectivity in the eyewall (Don't take this seriously) presumption it may reach 150kts 917mb pass"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-27T05:21Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Starting to appear with classic buzzsaw Dvorak appearance towards T6.0 and the N quad CB ring is very tight with persistent almost IR symmetric CB ring persistent suggesting brute development note how on Zehr eye isn't even sig. clear but the CDO is becoming more round already"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-26T02:59Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"Symmetry alone the TC is generating within each 50mi even smoothing to CDO with this process evident and active with the -88Deg C CB ring wrapping in curl very sharp C turn indicates perhaps early contraction than expected which leaves behind a tight inner CDO and expanding"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-26T04:08Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"@WeathermanAAA_ Conventional sat obs. are towards T7.2-7.4 with even AI ML CIMS fix pushing 150kts it is quite crazy but in reality they are correct in what they are observing as by manual Dvorak it can only be achieved thru this anyways. Of course this TC is non traditional in p/w"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-27T03:25Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"The culmination of the weak steering flow and slow translation speed means internal vortex dynamic forcing is enhancing the distinct SW jogs the generation of very large intense mesovort. cyclonic rot. and strong upshear CB ring orienting to form -XX Deg C CDO causing drifts"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-27T22:46Z XX followers, XX engagements

"NE still much more intense at sfc despite 152kts FL 152kts sfc with 925mb 88m off 168kts with mean column around 160kts too so definitely could see intensification from a lull. Intensity likely dropped a little to 150-155kts both recon conversions to 907mb FL and Dropsonde"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T00:18Z XX followers, XX engagements

"910/7kts 909mb missed eye clean so 907mb agreement. Perhaps a 1-2mb increase from last pass but that doesn't define a clear level off as at same time -XX Deg C CDO pink ring forms with axisymmetric cooling to occur after. Also CDO minus eye temp. gradient is steeper SE -XX Deg C"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T00:18Z XX followers, XX engagements

"TC with CDO cooling and ring of -81-82 Deg C some maxima of CBs -XX Deg C. TC structure stabilising but CB activity spiking greatly A robust peak could occur - Eyewall maturity again from CB sustained from ring and broad -XX Deg C swaths of CB bank as CDO cools"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T01:25Z XX followers, XX engagements

"-with sharp CDO minus eye temp grad - Eye subsident forcing and stability with more sfc based drying and subsident distributed across eye - Inner CDO maintained with fill in at -XX Deg C and then temp. drop off slightly but consequent eyewall redevelopment increasing sfc wind mix"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T01:25Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Maybe not easy to notice by eye but the axisymmetric CDO cooling is occurring with fine outer CDO gradient and the peripheral of maxima CB ring -82-83 Deg C distributed in distinct arcs as well as the inflow layer improving with curved layers and inflow banding more active"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T01:35Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Renewed CB ring development sustaining the cooled CDO at -81-82 Deg C ring and inner CDO sustaining with new wave of CB ring to NE translating after several cyclonic rot. maxima sfc winds likely to really mix in most quad particularly NE quad where storm motion adds few kts"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T02:15Z XX followers, XX engagements

"If any chances of a mature pink -XX Deg C CDO overlap with intense eye drying that would be now in the TC within last 12h pressure drops particularly after large mesovort. cyclonic rot. could drop 899mb soon then some persistent sfc drying with inner CDO ring"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T02:15Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Incredible CDO symmetry and maintenance of the popularised (at least today) -XX Deg C ring (min.) where inside you can see a -XX Deg C ring by Dvorak alone (manual + obs.) this would be pushing T7.8-T8.0 Stability of eye is remarkable and definitely very strong again"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T02:22Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"TC mean 200-850mb flow appears to direct due N now after stalling E N. The eye also has that upshear type appearance the trof enhanced outflows as well as UL divergence and sfc conv. will be persistent as LH efficiently released pressures lowered"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T02:36Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"Also enhanced 925mb layer winds with sfc mixing likely as the inner eyewall sustains strong CDO minus IR high inner avg. CDO temp and outer cooling CDO temp. and obs. eye temp. + differential. Sfc mixing through jet enhancement is more efficient"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T02:36Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Current intensity est. 160kts/903mb last pass pressure could push 899-900mb with increasing probability. One probability which answers this is the outer CDO contour and gradient being super fine which rarely happens and for long high end Zehr example - Haiyan Patricia Wilma"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T02:39Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"903mb/5kts dropsonde SE wind saturated profile miss again likely 900mb conversion. 1mb away. 3mb drop this pass around 4mb/pass 7mb 3h avg. which is insane. Mechanistically the stable eye and drying is very responsible for this especially under a pink -XX Deg C CDO"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T03:02Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Increase in CDO profile of CBs -84-86 blackbody pixel forming also avg. CDO temp. is cooling expanding and axisymmetric to before with active arcs in S quad of -84-87Deg C and a large avg. CDO temp. in outer CDO cooling. Inner CDO lack of change increasing stability and size"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T03:14Z XX followers, XX engagements

"If the NW quad closes of deeper CB arc it would have a -XX (-84 partial inner) Deg C outer CDO ring which would be unprecedented XXXX percentile TCs and no TC in ATL than Wilma and close to Haiyan or Patricia once again. Dvorak est. raw dishing out T8.5 due to this"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T03:23Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"Note for Melissa - CDO NW and SE expansion to a where a circumference appears. - Eye remains very steady state and mesovort. cyclonic rot. causing wobbly appearance post mesovort. vort aggregation and CB product towards more intense CBs arcs propagating outwards"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T03:38Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"Pink -XX Deg C CDO ring present. With not only achieving the outer CDO ring (embedded) of -XX Deg C It has radially expanded the CDO again this sort of rapid CDO axisymmetry fine gradient and expansion I'm going to have to name RCDO. The arcs of the CDO are right along the"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T03:54Z XX followers, XX engagements

"outer CDO itself. This is uncanny levels of impressive that cannot be described without loops and imagery constantly fed"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T03:54Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Note the light switch flickering effect perfect CDO cooling w/ G wave expansion Only seen in the most structurally mature TCs (T7.5-8.5) in high tropopause moisture env. even if intensity is capped lower. One T8.0 product here is the robust outflow SW banding overhead and"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T04:38Z XX followers, XX engagements

"distinct CDO cooling arcs reaching the outer CDO with a defined ring all the way around persisting within a fix. range for obs. to reach such"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T04:38Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Starting to see a rare inner CDO -80Deg C ring which is usually much easier achieved as a narrow pinhole eye TC (Eta 20' Milton 24' Wilma 05'). Also the TC CDO is migrating and generating a persistent pink -XX Deg C towards the centre in a symmetric fashion"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T05:02Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Very rapid progression of the inner CDO and the -XX Deg C contour with a very fine gradient and right along eyewall which remained stable and intense this bout alongside mesovort. or a spiral band maturing and interacting with vort. shed of eyewall. 165kts wouldn't be surprised"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T05:11Z XX followers, XX engagements

"At such low levels the presence of a pixel blackbody min. doesn't mean it dissipates within the larger body the envelope is split up into the moist adiabatic (white) mesovort. outer eye (brown) inner eye (black) and centre of circ. (grey) but at the sfc rapid changes"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-28T05:36Z XX followers, XX engagements

"MY PROFESSOR TALKED ABOUT HURRICANE MELISSA IN THE EXTREME WEATHER TOPIC TODAY I DID NOT EXPECT THAT LAST TIME I HEARD A PROFESSOR TALK ABOUT A HURRICNE WAS MILTON"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-29T13:36Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"@kjonoma @JimCantore Do you know where Montego Bay is"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-29T13:43Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"@kjonoma @JimCantore If you know where Montego bay is and drive from there to Black river you'd realise the Cat X was landfall. Use the NHC information"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-29T13:52Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"There is validity to these obs. provided manual Dvorak obs. is matching every new update to the fix of each sat. est. T7.2-3 and a noticeable change to dual inflow channels which have a distinct curved orientation than a broad band largely also the curved banding. #melissa"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-26T23:33Z XX followers, 1005 engagements

"@AndyHazelton of an antecedent very intense HE Category X eyewall and vorticity combined in a more transient mannerism than violent collapse"
X Link @PlaysSaheb 2025-10-29T20:43Z XX followers, XX engagements