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@UnicusResearch "🚩The real risk to $CVNA isnt in the headlines its buried in the ABS trusts. When the cushions dry up OC erodes reserves bleed it wont immediately show up on the equity side. But theres one thing that will break $CVNA. We are running an analytical model and will keep our clients posted soon"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 23:56:46 UTC 10.4K followers, 7637 engagements

"@CedarReseach I agree- our thought is the unrealized losses is not going to be the be all and end all. But it is not going to be pretty in long term. And the big banks can withstand unlike SVB. Problem is for the smaller banks- hyper regional with respect to CREs and unrealized losses"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-16 13:05:04 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements

"Rite Aid is shutting down all the stores for good"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-09 19:19:56 UTC 10.4K followers, 2608 engagements

"It is called payday lending. It is totally "legal" in an era where CFPB is DEAD and GRIFT is the new business model"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-18 22:08:32 UTC 10.4K followers, 1722 engagements

"🚨 Important Announcement from Unicus Team: Were have built (and building more layers) a Black Box model that triangulates $ALLY $CVNA and other ABS lenders auto loan trusts directly onto their corresponding financial statements. - a thread🧵"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-19 03:42:30 UTC 10.4K followers, 8240 engagements

"🚩Allys prime auto ABS arent failing theyre fraying. - Mods up X - Delinquencies increased from XXXX% XXXX% - Repo lag doubled - OC cushion eroded XX% All while passing every trigger test. This is how offbalance sheet risk creeps back toward Allys equity. Full AART 20221 2025 breakdown below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-20 12:03:05 UTC 10.4K followers, 8711 engagements

"3. And its not just subprime. $ALLY s AART trusts prime-heavy deals are cracking too. The middle-class credit cushion is thinning fast. We flagged Carvana 2025 & Bridgecrest 2025. Now we are scaling it all: trusts by trusts month by month from 2022 until 2025 for $CVNA and Bridgecrest"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 16:56:22 UTC 10.4K followers, 1010 engagements

"🚩Were tracking Allys first 2022 auto loan securitization- vintage. Total value of the securitization: $XXXX B - 60+ day delinquencies have risen 7x since issuance. - XXX% of loans now modified - Repo recoveries are slipping The unwind is slow but its begun. The analysis is on the link below👇"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-11 16:21:26 UTC 10.4K followers, 9005 engagements

"🚩 Announcement: $ALLY $CVNA $KMX and other Lenders - a thread🧵 Were launching a trust-by-trust surveillance initiative covering Ally and Carvanas auto ABS deals this month beginning with AART 2022 to 2025 and CVNA 2021-P1/N1 to 2025. A new product for our clients. Here is how to access them:"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-12 18:34:51 UTC 10.4K followers, 21K engagements

"🚩To anyone who believes that consumers are fine and unicorns are real read what our sources said: (1/2) A new AAA survey finds XX million American drivers would not be able to pay for an unexpected vehicle repair without going into debt indicating that some drivers may underestimate the full cost of owning and operating a vehicle"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-25 13:46:29 UTC 10.4K followers, 16.6K engagements

"🚩Carvana had the loans but not the buyers. We analyzed the data and the prospectus for all the trusts in 2025 - P1 P2 and N1. We found something interesting in CVNA- P2 trusts. Link and analysis below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-13 14:48:53 UTC 10.4K followers, 10.4K engagements

"$COF - the similar fate is en route for $ALLY and $CVNA. One of reasons $COF might increase PCL is crap is about to hit the fan on the ABS side of things"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-22 20:13:23 UTC 10.4K followers, 6621 engagements

"🚨FDIC Q1 2025: $413.2B unrealized bond losses remain. Big Four = XX% of the total ($172B) CRE past due rates XXXX% highest since 2014 Maturities Not until 20292032 A slow persistent trap. - a thread🧵 Link below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-16 10:52:49 UTC 10.4K followers, 4877 engagements

"🚩 $STLA is done. After speaking with hundreds of dealers and wholesalers we recommended this as a short to our clients at around $20+. Expect $STLA to cut dividend soon. This is a ZOMBIE company walking. Another one is about to bite the dust"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 13:34:52 UTC 10.4K followers, 2560 engagements

"🚩Classic example of how the "headlines" run the market. Whereas the reality always catches up in a few days. $ALLY beat numbers. BUT delinquencies are up but PCL is not. Make it make sense. We are continuing to dig into the ABS side of ALLY and $CVNA"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-18 12:50:03 UTC 10.4K followers, 2980 engagements

"🚩 5000+ $CVNA auto loans repoed. - $273M gain booked. - $3M unrealized securitization gains despite deep subprime wipeouts. The stress isnt showing up in earnings but its already real. We traced the gap. Here is a sample of what's to come in our new Off the Books series. Link below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-06-28 16:02:31 UTC 10.4K followers, 16.9K engagements

"Fitch like other rating agencies are always late to report"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-23 16:41:55 UTC 10.4K followers, 4678 engagements

"3. Were also extending the same Black Box model to Carvana (CVNA) and Bridgecrest. If you want to see where the cracks appear months before the market prices it in let us know. We share our preliminary analysis on: Confidential Insights. Detailed analysis and financial overlay on the ABS are for our clients. To become our client email laks@unicusresearch.com"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-19 03:42:31 UTC 10.4K followers, 1153 engagements

"1. Weve layered it with liquidity analysis overlaying credit stress on fundamental equity data to track exactly when CVNA ALLY and other lenders will be forced to hike provisions for credit losses (PCL)"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 16:56:21 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements

"🚩 Auto loans just passed $1.63T more than student debt. - XXXX% of new loans now stretch past XX months - Texas delinquency: XXXX% - Dealers: frozen inventory failed trade-ins (per our sources) - ABS losses are building quietly What were hearing on the ground matches the data. Full breakdown below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-09 18:25:10 UTC 10.4K followers, 45.6K engagements

"2. They extended. Then defaulted. Then got repod. Allys ABS trusts are quietly drowning in loss and the ratings agencies are still asleep. Here is one sneak peek into a single $ALLY Trust:"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-06-17 21:04:57 UTC 10.4K followers, 2402 engagements

"🚩Our team dug up on the $WMT price hike. $WMT is squashing the middle class one penny at a time. We found: - Clear linkage: tariffs hit Walmart warns shoppers see price hikes. - Examples span through low and high-ticket itemsbananas toys coffee cookware electronics. Stay tuned for our write up"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-18 19:01:23 UTC 10.4K followers, 7249 engagements

"2. Monthly auto ABS data is flashing red: - Rising charge-offs - Repo timing shifts - OC erosion Clear signals that consumers are falling behind on car loans"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 16:56:21 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements

"2. Weve already built the trust level deterioration model. Now were adding the financial + liquidity overlay to show how and when that trust stress turns into an existential problem"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-19 03:42:31 UTC 10.4K followers, 1154 engagements

"🚨 Based on our five years of studying the EV sector interviewing battery system engineers from $QS $GOEVQ and other companies Slate Auto's design philosophy has been tried before and it doesn't work. Here's why: - a thread🧵"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-04-28 10:49:51 UTC 10.4K followers, 3078 engagements

"🚩 $GM just stated on the call that tariffs will cost them approximately $X to $X billion. What a good cover to write off all the EVs. It has begun"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-22 12:50:28 UTC 10.4K followers, 4513 engagements

"$ALLY's extend now recognize loss later is here. The "Later" is 2H 2025 and 2026. Be in the know:"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-20 12:03:06 UTC 10.4K followers, 1076 engagements

"🚩Guess whos holding the bag on auto ABS $CVNA and $ALLY Not just Wall Street NO. - Individual investors (via bond ETFs & mutual funds) - Pension funds chasing safe yield - Insurance companies looking for duration - Regional banks & credit unions parking liquidity (1/3)"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 10:48:53 UTC 10.4K followers, 11K engagements

"- Remember the modified vintages in 2022 yes they have double defaulted and will hit ALLY in 2H 2025"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-22 14:25:24 UTC 10.4K followers, 1615 engagements

"- Were not in a 2008-style blowup. Its a slow structural repricinghigher funding costs less cheap credit more targeted defaults. Thats why its critical to watch the plumbing: securitizations trust data and the early credit signals in ABS"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-22 14:25:25 UTC 10.4K followers, 1591 engagements

"1. $CVNA + $ALLY = 2X screwing the customers We have been on sideline with respect to $CVNA. Now one mess is intertwining with the other now we are following. $CVNA is back on. This time we are digging the ABS side for ALLY CVNA and Bridgecrest from 2022 - trust by trust month by month. (2/3)"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-18 13:13:42 UTC 10.4K followers, 1114 engagements

"🚩Downgrades outpaced upgrades for the 2nd week. - Consumer products = weakest link - Tariff-driven margin squeeze in chemicals - June saw $26B in defaults the highest YTD Were tracking it with our new Unicus Research 90-Day Default Tracker early warning before the next default wave. This weeks pause in defaults Just the calm before the next wave. Link below:"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-24 13:41:09 UTC 10.4K followers, 2379 engagements

"1. ABS losses are exploding off-balance sheet. You wont find it on Bloomberg. But we are scraping every repo mod and charge-off. Reports to be shared with our clients"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-06-17 21:04:56 UTC 10.4K followers, 2273 engagements

"Weve been recommending this turd as a short to our clients. We spoke with dealers nationwide and wholesalers. $STLA is in deep trouble. Brands are dead. Dividend is about to be CUT. Chaos will cascade through dealerships next. $STLA is a ZOMBIE company"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 14:57:30 UTC 10.4K followers, 5286 engagements

"🚩Seeps into the equity: XX% cushion erosion in X years means it is on track to hit residual impairment territory late 2025. Multiply that across all 2022 & 2023 vintages.funding costs rise liquidity tightens and eventual EPS compression. Translation: $ALLY and $CVNA can no longer kick the can down the road with respect to the vintages"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-20 21:21:17 UTC 10.4K followers, 2866 engagements

"🚩In the middle of ongoing chaotic politics indecisiveness and market volatility the following facts are ignored or forgotten: - BNPL is a survival tool for more than XX% of our subprime population. - Student loan default garnishment kicking in this fall. - Auto repos. are climbing high. (1/3)"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-22 14:25:24 UTC 10.4K followers, 11.8K engagements

"🚩We are trying not to GAG from listening to $ALLY conference call - "Ally name stands with trust and purpose" That is not what we heard from our wholesaler sources. We heard ALLY begs to get its repo inventory sold without going to auction houses. (1/3)"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-18 13:13:41 UTC 10.4K followers, 2828 engagements

"🚩If a CVNA trust "blows up" generally no recourse. Thats the point of ABS to ring-fence risk via a bankruptcy-remote trust. BUT here are the exceptionsthe failed ABS trust doesnt legally come back to Carvana but the funding pipeline gets clogged Link below:"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-14 22:46:39 UTC 10.4K followers, 2341 engagements

"🚩 Our ABS breakdown of Bridgecrest 2025-1 & 2025-2 is live. - One delayed losses with mods. - The other did nothing then blew out. Both are deteriorating fast. And $CVNA isnt as insulated as it looks. What happens If a CVNA trust "blows up" Link below👇"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-14 14:00:57 UTC 10.4K followers, 5592 engagements

"🚩 Remember when $ENPH was the future of solar Well the future looks like -XX% from 2023 highs. We recommended our clients to short near $XXX now its $XX after disastrous numbers. The sun set on this one and $SEDG #ENPH #stockmarket #solar"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-23 13:48:09 UTC 10.4K followers, 4261 engagements

"Affairs are bad for business. It is bad for the family. And if youve a publicly traded company its bad for your shareholders. All in all too much paperwork and too much PR. Its not worth it"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-17 23:56:20 UTC 10.4K followers, 2248 engagements

"A fund intentionally pumping $CVNA and $OPEN is depressing to witness. Just couldnt comprehend it. Then again were in an era of grift. So anything goes"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-23 02:12:17 UTC 10.4K followers, 6023 engagements

"🚨 PSA: Our team is working on a high-level project tracking the deterioration of off-balance-sheet credit across auto ABS trusts from 2020 to now. Names include: $CVNA $ALLY $KMX and more.- a thread🧵"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-07 03:01:56 UTC 10.4K followers, 40.9K engagements