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@UnicusResearch "🚩 Consumers are squeezed out of life. In just months four shocks have collided: - A Texas judge reversed medical debt reporting protections - Student loan payments resumed XX% missed the first bill. Credit scores hit by 100+ points - H.R.1 slashes Medicaid rolls. - BNPL debts now hits your credit score"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-14 12:32:49 UTC 10.4K followers, 4215 engagements

"🚩The real risk to $CVNA isnt in the headlines its buried in the ABS trusts. When the cushions dry up OC erodes reserves bleed it wont immediately show up on the equity side. But theres one thing that will break $CVNA. We are running an analytical model and will keep our clients posted soon"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 23:56:46 UTC 10.4K followers, 7552 engagements

"@CedarReseach I agree- our thought is the unrealized losses is not going to be the be all and end all. But it is not going to be pretty in long term. And the big banks can withstand unlike SVB. Problem is for the smaller banks- hyper regional with respect to CREs and unrealized losses"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-16 13:05:04 UTC 10.3K followers, XXX engagements

"🚩 AI chip demand masks a patchy recovery: TSM rides HPC growth CTAS stays resilient on SMB hiring MAN shows Europes labor drag. Full breakdown of $TSM $CTAS $MAN 2Q earnings in the link below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-17 23:39:45 UTC 10.4K followers, 1036 engagements

"Rite Aid is shutting down all the stores for good"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-09 19:19:56 UTC 10.4K followers, 2592 engagements

"It is called payday lending. It is totally "legal" in an era where CFPB is DEAD and GRIFT is the new business model"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-18 22:08:32 UTC 10.4K followers, 1690 engagements

"🚨 Important Announcement from Unicus Team: Were have built (and building more layers) a Black Box model that triangulates $ALLY $CVNA and other ABS lenders auto loan trusts directly onto their corresponding financial statements. - a thread🧵"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-19 03:42:30 UTC 10.4K followers, 8165 engagements

"2. The full Trust analysis including month-by-month deterioration charge-off velocity and linkage to Ally and Carvanas financials will be available exclusively to clients as and when our team analyzes the data. This is real-time credit decay tracked before it shows up in the equity. To become a client email: laks@unicusresearch.com"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-12 18:34:52 UTC 10.3K followers, 1288 engagements

"🚩Allys prime auto ABS arent failing theyre fraying. - Mods up X - Delinquencies increased from XXXX% XXXX% - Repo lag doubled - OC cushion eroded XX% All while passing every trigger test. This is how offbalance sheet risk creeps back toward Allys equity. Full AART 20221 2025 breakdown below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-20 12:03:05 UTC 10.4K followers, 8625 engagements

"3. And its not just subprime. $ALLY s AART trusts prime-heavy deals are cracking too. The middle-class credit cushion is thinning fast. We flagged Carvana 2025 & Bridgecrest 2025. Now we are scaling it all: trusts by trusts month by month from 2022 until 2025 for $CVNA and Bridgecrest"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 16:56:22 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements

"🚨To anyone and everyone who is out there please know the analysis source digging that we do on consumer credit and auto you will not find it in main stream media. Same goes for @thejobchick for layoffs data and @m3_melody for housing. Because: Credit rating agencies mainstream media (yes including your expensive BB) are fashionably late in reporting FACTS"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-09 20:02:47 UTC 10.4K followers, 3616 engagements

"🚩Were tracking Allys first 2022 auto loan securitization- vintage. Total value of the securitization: $XXXX B - 60+ day delinquencies have risen 7x since issuance. - XXX% of loans now modified - Repo recoveries are slipping The unwind is slow but its begun. The analysis is on the link below👇"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-11 16:21:26 UTC 10.4K followers, 8989 engagements

"🚩 Announcement: $ALLY $CVNA $KMX and other Lenders - a thread🧵 Were launching a trust-by-trust surveillance initiative covering Ally and Carvanas auto ABS deals this month beginning with AART 2022 to 2025 and CVNA 2021-P1/N1 to 2025. A new product for our clients. Here is how to access them:"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-12 18:34:51 UTC 10.4K followers, 20.9K engagements

"🚨 Prime Auto Loan Deterioration. Fitch expects an imminent rating downgrade. - According to Fitch some ABS pools are facing liquidity issues. ABS market is deteriorating. - Impending Credit Risk in the ABS markets With Focus on multiple Shadow Banks. - a thread 🧵"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-05-09 18:37:04 UTC 10.4K followers, 46.9K engagements

"🚨Earnings Macro and the Fed ahead Light schedule but key names to watch: $DAL $CAG $LEVI $WDFC $SMPL Inflation + retail data will collide with results. Full calendar + estimates in the link below:"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-06 22:57:57 UTC 10.3K followers, 1195 engagements

"1. Preliminary trust-level data will be released in our newsletter for Confidential Insights members. You can access here by subscribing to Confidential Insights:"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-12 18:34:51 UTC 10.3K followers, 1352 engagements

"🚩Carvana had the loans but not the buyers. We analyzed the data and the prospectus for all the trusts in 2025 - P1 P2 and N1. We found something interesting in CVNA- P2 trusts. Link and analysis below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-13 14:48:53 UTC 10.4K followers, 10.4K engagements

"$COF - the similar fate is en route for $ALLY and $CVNA. One of reasons $COF might increase PCL is crap is about to hit the fan on the ABS side of things"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-22 20:13:23 UTC 10.4K followers, 6267 engagements

"🚨FDIC Q1 2025: $413.2B unrealized bond losses remain. Big Four = XX% of the total ($172B) CRE past due rates XXXX% highest since 2014 Maturities Not until 20292032 A slow persistent trap. - a thread🧵 Link below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-16 10:52:49 UTC 10.3K followers, 4858 engagements

"🚩 $STLA is done. After speaking with hundreds of dealers and wholesalers we recommended this as a short to our clients at around $20+. Expect $STLA to cut dividend soon. This is a ZOMBIE company walking. Another one is about to bite the dust"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 13:34:52 UTC 10.4K followers, 2489 engagements

"🚩Classic example of how the "headlines" run the market. Whereas the reality always catches up in a few days. $ALLY beat numbers. BUT delinquencies are up but PCL is not. Make it make sense. We are continuing to dig into the ABS side of ALLY and $CVNA"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-18 12:50:03 UTC 10.4K followers, 2949 engagements

"🚩 5000+ $CVNA auto loans repoed. - $273M gain booked. - $3M unrealized securitization gains despite deep subprime wipeouts. The stress isnt showing up in earnings but its already real. We traced the gap. Here is a sample of what's to come in our new Off the Books series. Link below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-06-28 16:02:31 UTC 10.4K followers, 16.9K engagements

"$ABNB is done. Yes they have cash. Yes they have little to no debt. But $ABNB business model sucks and littered with legal and regulatory quagmire"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-06 13:35:04 UTC 10.4K followers, 8252 engagements

"Alright now anyone tracked this process the first time around please tell us who we will be in discussion with next"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-13 23:24:32 UTC 10.4K followers, 1918 engagements

"Most of the EV companies we recommended went bust. Another non-EV $OPEN is on its way to the graveyard. Now $STLA might join the list in the near future. @realsteveeisman To become our client and gain access to our actionable short ideas/research email laks@unicusresearch.com"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 13:34:52 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements

"3. Were also extending the same Black Box model to Carvana (CVNA) and Bridgecrest. If you want to see where the cracks appear months before the market prices it in let us know. We share our preliminary analysis on: Confidential Insights. Detailed analysis and financial overlay on the ABS are for our clients. To become our client email laks@unicusresearch.com"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-19 03:42:31 UTC 10.4K followers, 1141 engagements

"1. Weve layered it with liquidity analysis overlaying credit stress on fundamental equity data to track exactly when CVNA ALLY and other lenders will be forced to hike provisions for credit losses (PCL)"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 16:56:21 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements

"🚩 Auto loans just passed $1.63T more than student debt. - XXXX% of new loans now stretch past XX months - Texas delinquency: XXXX% - Dealers: frozen inventory failed trade-ins (per our sources) - ABS losses are building quietly What were hearing on the ground matches the data. Full breakdown below"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-09 18:25:10 UTC 10.4K followers, 45.5K engagements

"Our team in working the same process for $CVNA as well. Stay tuned"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-11 17:25:07 UTC 10.4K followers, 1529 engagements

"🚩Our team dug up on the $WMT price hike. $WMT is squashing the middle class one penny at a time. We found: - Clear linkage: tariffs hit Walmart warns shoppers see price hikes. - Examples span through low and high-ticket itemsbananas toys coffee cookware electronics. Stay tuned for our write up"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-18 19:01:23 UTC 10.4K followers, 7192 engagements

"2. Monthly auto ABS data is flashing red: - Rising charge-offs - Repo timing shifts - OC erosion Clear signals that consumers are falling behind on car loans"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 16:56:21 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements

"2. Weve already built the trust level deterioration model. Now were adding the financial + liquidity overlay to show how and when that trust stress turns into an existential problem"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-19 03:42:31 UTC 10.4K followers, 1142 engagements

"🚩 $GM just stated on the call that tariffs will cost them approximately $X to $X billion. What a good cover to write off all the EVs. It has begun"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-22 12:50:28 UTC 10.4K followers, 4417 engagements

"$ALLY's extend now recognize loss later is here. The "Later" is 2H 2025 and 2026. Be in the know:"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-20 12:03:06 UTC 10.4K followers, 1039 engagements

"🚩Guess whos holding the bag on auto ABS $CVNA and $ALLY Not just Wall Street NO. - Individual investors (via bond ETFs & mutual funds) - Pension funds chasing safe yield - Insurance companies looking for duration - Regional banks & credit unions parking liquidity (1/3)"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 10:48:53 UTC 10.4K followers, 10.9K engagements

"- Remember the modified vintages in 2022 yes they have double defaulted and will hit ALLY in 2H 2025"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-22 14:25:24 UTC 10.4K followers, 1529 engagements

"- Were not in a 2008-style blowup. Its a slow structural repricinghigher funding costs less cheap credit more targeted defaults. Thats why its critical to watch the plumbing: securitizations trust data and the early credit signals in ABS"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-22 14:25:25 UTC 10.4K followers, 1520 engagements

"1. $CVNA + $ALLY = 2X screwing the customers We have been on sideline with respect to $CVNA. Now one mess is intertwining with the other now we are following. $CVNA is back on. This time we are digging the ABS side for ALLY CVNA and Bridgecrest from 2022 - trust by trust month by month. (2/3)"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-18 13:13:42 UTC 10.4K followers, 1086 engagements

"Weve been recommending this turd as a short to our clients. We spoke with dealers nationwide and wholesalers. $STLA is in deep trouble. Brands are dead. Dividend is about to be CUT. Chaos will cascade through dealerships next. $STLA is a ZOMBIE company"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-21 14:57:30 UTC 10.4K followers, 5086 engagements

"🚨This weeks macro signals point to a dangerous convergence: tariffs are back on the table inflation expectations are creeping higher and yet markets are increasingly pricing in a Fed rate cut this fall. Layer in the regulatory loosening under the latest banking proposals and we may be walking straight into a policy trap one where inflation re-accelerates just as the Fed decides to ease"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-14 02:53:20 UTC 10.4K followers, 1760 engagements

"🚩Seeps into the equity: XX% cushion erosion in X years means it is on track to hit residual impairment territory late 2025. Multiply that across all 2022 & 2023 vintages.funding costs rise liquidity tightens and eventual EPS compression. Translation: $ALLY and $CVNA can no longer kick the can down the road with respect to the vintages"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-20 21:21:17 UTC 10.4K followers, 2827 engagements

"🚩In the middle of ongoing chaotic politics indecisiveness and market volatility the following facts are ignored or forgotten: - BNPL is a survival tool for more than XX% of our subprime population. - Student loan default garnishment kicking in this fall. - Auto repos. are climbing high. (1/3)"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-22 14:25:24 UTC 10.4K followers, 11.2K engagements

"🚩We are trying not to GAG from listening to $ALLY conference call - "Ally name stands with trust and purpose" That is not what we heard from our wholesaler sources. We heard ALLY begs to get its repo inventory sold without going to auction houses. (1/3)"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-18 13:13:41 UTC 10.4K followers, 2804 engagements

"🚩If a CVNA trust "blows up" generally no recourse. Thats the point of ABS to ring-fence risk via a bankruptcy-remote trust. BUT here are the exceptionsthe failed ABS trust doesnt legally come back to Carvana but the funding pipeline gets clogged Link below:"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-14 22:46:39 UTC 10.4K followers, 2337 engagements

"🚩 Our ABS breakdown of Bridgecrest 2025-1 & 2025-2 is live. - One delayed losses with mods. - The other did nothing then blew out. Both are deteriorating fast. And $CVNA isnt as insulated as it looks. What happens If a CVNA trust "blows up" Link below👇"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-14 14:00:57 UTC 10.4K followers, 5573 engagements

"Affairs are bad for business. It is bad for the family. And if youve a publicly traded company its bad for your shareholders. All in all too much paperwork and too much PR. Its not worth it"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-17 23:56:20 UTC 10.4K followers, 2222 engagements

"A fund intentionally pumping $CVNA and $OPEN is depressing to witness. Just couldnt comprehend it. Then again were in an era of grift. So anything goes"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-23 02:12:17 UTC 10.4K followers, 4206 engagements

"🚨 PSA: Our team is working on a high-level project tracking the deterioration of off-balance-sheet credit across auto ABS trusts from 2020 to now. Names include: $CVNA $ALLY $KMX and more.- a thread🧵"
@UnicusResearch on X 2025-07-07 03:01:56 UTC 10.4K followers, 40.9K engagements