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@alblindol0 "the opacity is the scary part: First Brands went from "pausing refinancing" in August to Chapter XX with $11.6B liabilities by late September X weeks. bankruptcy lawyer called the emergency DIP loan "funding a black box with limited diligence" UBS fund had XX% in ONE name. Jefferies $715M stopped paying. if we can SEE this one how many can't we see"
X Link @alblindol0 2025-10-15T17:18Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"the contagion math: if First Brands ($11.6B) caught: - Jefferies for $161M (0.7% of exposure) - UBS O'Connor for $500M+ (4.3% of exposure) what happens when: - $957B CRE matures at 3x rates (2025-2026) - multiple $5-10B companies fail simultaneously - regional banks (44% CRE) + PC backstops hit at once march 2023: X banks X weeks next time: add private credit layer"
X Link @alblindol0 2025-10-15T17:18Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Why this matters: Put/call ratio of XXXX means almost X puts bought for every X call. Thats EXTREME bearish positioning. The smart money is hedging. The question is: are they early or are they right"
X Link @alblindol0 2025-10-15T05:22Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"the positioning tells the story: FITB + CMA announce defensive merger (oct 2025) regional banks consolidating BEFORE headlines hit KRE put/call ratio: XXXX (institutions hedged heavy) someone bought XX contracts at $XX strike (45% OTM) smart money positioning for something bankruptcy courts showing us what"
X Link @alblindol0 2025-10-15T17:18Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"dove into First Brands Group bankruptcy filing (Sept 2025 $11.6B liabilities) found the domino chain: X. Jefferies Point Bonita: $715M in receivables payments stopped Sept XX X. UBS O'Connor fund: XX% exposure to ONE borrower ($500M+) X. Raistone (ex-Greensill founders): 70-80% revenue from this deal X. Creditor filing alleges $2.3B "vanished" this isn't a private credit FUND failing. this is a BORROWER that nuked multiple funds + banks. $95B in bank facilities backstopping private credit sector $957B CRE refinancing at 2-3x rates regional banks: XX% CRE exposure when one $11B portfolio"
X Link @alblindol0 2025-10-15T17:18Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@DividendTalks Amazons falling behind on AI and their customer service has declined. Gen Z would rather wait the same time for identical products at half the price on Temu/Whatnot/TikTok Shop"
X Link @alblindol0 2025-10-15T20:36Z XXX followers, 1791 engagements

"why you haven't heard about this: First Brands = $11.6B bankruptcy (sept 2025) media coverage: minimal buried quickly Tricolor (auto subprime): bankruptcy (sept 2025) coverage: one Bloomberg piece "why PC should worry" XX companies defaulted on $27B in Q2 2025 alone that's XX% increase from Q1 the ship is sinking slowly"
X Link @alblindol0 2025-10-15T17:18Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"timeline update: originally thought: Q2 2026 crisis window First Brands timeline: X weeks (aug sept) if more portfolio companies stressed: Q4 2025 fund letters show redemption pressure Q1 2026 bank earnings show provisions spiking Q2 2026 contagion spreads or soft landing (15% chance) documenting the whole thing. asymmetric bet: $5-10k $100k-500k if right bankruptcy filings don't lie"
X Link @alblindol0 2025-10-15T17:18Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"here's the 2008 parallel: THEN: subprime mortgages CDOs banks pension funds NOW: over-leveraged companies private credit banks pension funds same structure new asset class difference: - mortgage: $200-500k each - portfolio co loans: $50-500M each bigger loans = bigger craters when they fail"
X Link @alblindol0 2025-10-15T17:18Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"To be precise: institutions buying $50-55 puts (15-25% downside) but XX contracts of volume at $25-40 strikes suggest informed small players betting on systemic crisis (40-60% crash). Different cohorts different conviction levels"
X Link @alblindol0 2025-10-15T05:22Z XXX followers, XX engagements