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@StableBread "The growth numbers tell an interesting story: 2025E: $31.5M revenue (298% growth) 2026E: $170M to $190M revenue (midpoint $180M) EBITDA margins: approaching XX% At $XX per share with 61.4M shares outstanding the market cap is $614M (current price of $WLAC is $13/share). With $112.8M net cash enterprise value is about $501.5M implying 3.4x 2026E EV/Sales (midpoint of their 2026 revenue guidance)"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-23T22:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Beyond the operating performance the capital allocation opportunity is compelling. The $2.2B buyback authorization is wildly accretive at current prices. Management has $2.2B authorized for buybacks (17% of market cap at $XX per share). In Q2 FY2026 they bought back $282M worth of shares at an average price of $XXXXXX. The stock is now at $84"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Banks typically have a very small amount of equity to support their balance sheet. Equity is important because it's the only cushion protecting depositors and creditors when loans go bad. Terry Smith (from Fundsmith) after the SVB collapse provided NatWest Group's 2022 balance sheet as an example. NatWest has just X of shareholder equity supporting every XXX of assets a leverage ratio of 20x. This means if just XX% of their loans go bad (10 in losses on XXX of assets exceeds the X equity buffer) shareholders are completely wiped out. Long before reaching that point depositors typically panic"
X Link @StableBread 2025-09-12T13:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The $100M from this SPAC transaction combined with existing credit facilities will support $400M in hardware deployment through 2026. Infrastructure expansion roadmap: Current: 3500 GPUs 4MW power X data centers 2026 target: 19000+ GPUs 20MW+ power X data centers They're adding XX MW of capacity across Charlotte St. Louis and Pennsylvania through their TierPoint partnership. This phased approach reduces execution risk while aligning with customer demand"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-23T22:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"1 Ferrari $RACE Ferrari maintains an 18-month waiting list even among the wealthiest buyers. When they announce a new supercar it sells out before they name the price. If Honda tried limiting production to create artificial scarcity buyers wouldn't wait. They'd buy a Toyota. Ferrari's brand represents something no amount of engineering talent or manufacturing investment can replicate"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T13:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The company converts nearly all operating income to FCF (83% conversion). They also have $1.4B cash zero debt and $900M+ annual FCF. Gross margins have expanded from XX% to XX% over the past decade while maintaining volume growth. So why is the stock struggling"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"But Q2 FY2026 results show the business is still performing: Revenue: $1.43B up XXX% (beat internal expectations). EPS: $XXXX up XX% y/y. Gross margin: XXXX% up XXX% despite wholesale mix shift. H1 FY2026 results: Revenue +12% EPS +17% with HOKA and UGG both delivering double-digit growth"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The regulated industry opportunity is substantial. Their certifications create meaningful barriers to entry in a compliance software market worth $XX billion growing at XX% CAGR. They're targeting financial services healthcare energy and government sectors where AI spending is accelerating but security requirements are paramount. Through Carahsoft they can potentially access 200+ government contracts with Congress considering $XX billion in additional AI funding. Moreover according to CEO Andrew Karos AI infrastructure demand is outpacing supply leading to XX to XX month lead times and"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-23T22:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"When it comes to valuation let's compare $WLAC to $CRWV: At 4.6x (half of CoreWeave's 9.2x): $180M revenue 4.6x = $828M EV + $112.8M cash = $940M market cap / 61.4M shares -- $XX per share At 9.2x (CoreWeave's multiple): $180M revenue 9.2x = $1656M EV + $112.8M cash = $1768M market cap / 61.4M shares -- $XX per share"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-23T22:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@aleabitoreddit I think $NBIS is best positioned for reasons you mentioned and none of competitors have investors/partners/customers like them across the board from $NVDA Khosla in ClickHouse $UBER and Avride Bezos team in Toloka $MSFT etc"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-28T09:16Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$DECK has dropped 58%+ YTD (from $XXX to $84). You can now buy $1.2B in annual EBIT $1.4B cash $900M+ FCF zero debtwith international revenue growing 38%all for 13x earnings. Is this a value trap or is the stock actually worth buying Let's find out: 🧵"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:56Z XXX followers, 2552 engagements

"Three factors are driving margin compression: 1) Tariff impact of $150M gross with $75-95M in mitigation efforts leaves $55-75M net hit. 2) Retailers expected to run more sales and promotions in Q3 and Q4 FY2026 to move inventory. 3) Wholesale mix shift (lower margin channel growing faster than DTC)"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The near-term consumer pressure is real: UGG DTC down XX% in Q2 FY2026. US consumer under pressure from inflation and tariffs. Management expects "deeper valleys and higher peaks" in seasonal demand due to consumer uncertainty"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"UGG product innovation is exceeding expectations. Classic Micro became a top-5 style. MEL franchise doubled. Management stated "sell-through is stronger than sell-in" meaning inventory is moving faster at retail than shipments suggest. This matters because it shows demand at the consumer level is holding up better than wholesale shipment numbers indicate"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"With $1.4B cash zero debt and $900M+ annual free cash flow they can retire 15-20% of shares over XX months. $DECK has survived multiple 50%+ drawdowns (2008 2015-2016 2022) and recovered with multi-hundred percent gains each time. Retiring 15-20% of the company at 13x earnings while growing XX% internationally creates value"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The compliance advantage matters for government contracts. Boost Run holds SOC X Type X and X HIPAA compliance and ISO 27001 certification. Through their Carahsoft partnership they can bid on 200+ government contracts. Federal AI R&D budget has also grown from $2.4B in 2021 to $3.3B in 2025 creating more opportunities for compliant providers"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-23T22:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The management team comes from $GLXY (Galaxy Digital). CEO Andrew Karos built Blue Fire Capital across X countries and XX data centers then sold to Galaxy Digital in 2020. Several key Galaxy Digital colleagues joined him at Boost Run including the COO who managed capital deployments the CIO with XX years building trading infrastructure and the CTO who's deployed thousands of GPUs"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-23T22:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The business model is simple. Deckers operates two premium footwear brands: UGG (51% of revenue $2.5B) and HOKA (45% of revenue $2.2B). Revenue flows through wholesale (57%) and direct-to-consumer (43%). Notice how impressive HOKA's growth trajectory has been It's gone from a $1M acquisition into a $2B+ brand nearly surpassing UGG"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"1 Landstar $LSTR Landstar works like Uber for big rig trucking founded XX years ago. They own no trucks just broker connections between truck drivers looking for loads and shippers looking for trucks. The revenue model is simple: Revenue = Loads Hauled Price per Load Truckloads are among the most correlated industries to GDP growth. As the economy expands more goods need shipping so trucking demand grows alongside it. After the trucker gets paid XX% of remaining revenue becomes profit for Landstar. On average XX% of each new dollar of net revenue becomes profit so margins keep increasing"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-31T13:57Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"2 Broadridge $BR Broadridge runs America's corporate voting systems and sends client statements and trade confirmations. Stock market performance doesn't matter to them. Trading volume doesn't matter either. What matters is position count. If one person owns XXX shares and another owns X million shares that's still two positions. Each gets one set of statements and one voting ballot. Broadridge earns fees per position not per share value. Over the last decade position counts have grown every year as barriers drop for small investors to enter markets. More positions means predictable revenue"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-31T13:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"For Cost of Equity use CAPM or Modified CAPM. Risk-free rate: Use the 10-year government bond yield (10-year Treasury for US companies). Must have no default risk and no reinvestment risk. Equity risk premium: Use implied ERP (forward-looking available on Damodaran's website) rather than historical ERP"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-21T16:02Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"1 Perimeter Solutions $PRM The vast majority of management compensation comes in stock grants received only if the stock price sets a new high at year end. No annual positive return for shareholders means next to no additional compensation for management"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-29T13:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"3 Chipotle Mexican Grill $CMG Beyond shareholders and employees other stakeholders matter. Vendors regulators or society can hurt returns when ignored. While most fast food sells frozen and reheated industrial meat with ultra-processed ingredients Chipotle sells real natural fresh food. To source sustainably raised meat and healthy vegetables that customers want the company invests in local and organic farming meaning their success runs through helping vendors scale production"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-29T13:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Management teams should act in shareholder interests by driving economic profits not just revenue growth or market share. The best managers understand value creation flows through employees vendors and broader stakeholders. Exploit any group and long-term returns suffer"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-29T13:56Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@InvestingVisual Haha true. My problem with $DUOL is I'm just not confident it will stick around in 5-10+ years"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:22Z XXX followers, 1559 engagements

"And the underlying brand strength supports this approach. HOKA gained X points of US road-running market share over XX months ending September 2025. They're the fastest-growing brand in Italy France Germany. Back to number one in specialty running retail. Wholesale sell-through up double digits in first half FY2026"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@ValueInvestShow Thanks and good point. I said something similar tho here: "The conservative guidance reflects a choice: they could boost short-term sales by selling more through wholesale channels or offering steep discounts. They're choosing not to." S/o to you tho for your $DECK posts"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T19:50Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@realroseceline Good one. Maybe you dont like retail but have you looked into $DECK Been looking more and more attractive as the year has gone by"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-28T09:31Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Few companies actually have moats that prevent rivals from stealing profits despite many claiming "competitive advantages." Here's three companies that have real structural barriers: 👇"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T13:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"2 Illumina $ILMN Illumina offers genetic sequencing equipment and controls about XX% of global market share. Medical and scientific experts agree genetic research will keep growing significantly for years to come. Illumina essentially provides mission-critical tools with no substitute. The stock performed poorly in the 1-2 years before late 2023 even while generating outstanding returns over the previous XX to XX years. The issue was large acquisitions outside core operations not the moat"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T13:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Management fully absorbed tariffs and maintained their EPS range. The gross margin beat consensus by X% despite headwinds. This suggests real pricing power. The conservative guidance reflects a choice: they could boost short-term sales by selling more through wholesale channels or offering steep discounts. They're choosing not to"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The balance sheet provides downside protection. Cash per share: $1414M divided by 148.3M shares = $XXXX per share in cash alone. Normalized FCF runs $950M annually. At 10x FCF (deep value multiple) that's $XX per share. Add cash: $XXXXX per share. From $XX that's roughly 12-15% max downside with the balance sheet providing cushion"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The setup: Upside: Consumer stabilizes tariffs moderate international accelerates multiple re-rates to 18-20x -- $115-135/share (18-21x P/E on $XXXX EPS = 35-60% upside). Downside: Recession hits tariffs escalate consumer breaks -- $73-80/share (10x FCF + cash floor to 12.5x P/E = 12-15% downside cushioned by buybacks and cash floor). Starting a position in $DECK makes sense now. Deploying more if the stock falls below $XX offers a more compelling value play"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T18:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@ValueInvestShow What you think my writeup:"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-30T19:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@KabraxFX For some reason I thought management was smart and expanded opportunistically kind of like Whole Foods. Guess I'm wrong"
X Link @StableBread 2025-10-31T19:53Z XXX followers, XX engagements