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@respeculator "$MIN.AX January 2023'. iron ore price = A$160/t (US$115/t & 71c FX) Onslow just a dream Mining services 240mtpa. SP A$100/sh x SOI 190m = A$19bn Co Sept 2025'. iron ore price = A$160/t (US$104/t & 65c FX) Onslow near fully ramped (August at 38mtpa run rate as below) mining services 320mtpa. SP A$37/sh x SOI 190m = A$7bn Co The SP delta X. Net debt from A$1.5bn to A$5.5bn (+A$4bn) X. Spodumene from US$5000/t to US$800/t We can argue corp gov issues surfaced. and some will argue a dicky haul road has permanently impaired Onslow. but lets leave that. The net debt increase perhaps explains some"
X Link @respeculator 2025-09-08T06:20Z 18.7K followers, 6160 engagements

"Not sure Newmont would be interested (I get they are familiar with PNG given Lihir). Harmony $HMY might be a smokey tho given recent moves. Interesting point on tax losses to offset a sale. also some franking credits to help with tax effectiveness of a distribution $SBM.AX"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-08T01:21Z 18.8K followers, 5672 engagements

"@austinmitchyblu Doesnt it China is #1 demand centre and whilst the deposit is in Brazil I think youll find its a Chinese controlled"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-02T11:14Z 18.7K followers, XXX engagements

"$BHP $FMG & $RIO all breaking out to q year highs 👀👀👀"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-15T07:32Z 18.7K followers, 8859 engagements

"@TKianidis Don't tell me he's been telling porkies too 🤦♂🤦♂"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-16T03:52Z 18.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Any "froth" in the metals & mining space seems to be isolated to select "critical minerals" plays or to an extent precious metals. Major miners like $BHP $RIO $AAL.L $GLEN.L all trading below their 5yr highs. Hell - if you believe the below $GLEN.L maybe trading at 3.5x EBITDA or completely underwritten by its #copper & marketing divisions"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-04T22:04Z 18.7K followers, 16.8K engagements

"This might be a tad extreme but heres my own AI written response below. Which is basically asking why did the Oyu Tolgoi block cave in Mongolia by Rio Tinto fk up so badly. Mongolia is a desert vs XX metres of rainfall in West Papua. Sure it had soft rock which caused geotechnical issues but XX metres of rain means we have more than soft rock we got mud (albeit at surface not down at cave level). Anyway - would love to hear from any caving expert"
X Link @respeculator 2025-09-25T11:52Z 18.7K followers, 6233 engagements

"Theres a good chance that Northern Star which is A$30bn post DEG merge made less cash this quarter with gold at all time highs than Yancoal when coal is reaching X year lows. $NST.AX $YAL.AX. we are all parked in the recession camp roofs gold camp but if energy doesnt go to zero theres many a bargain all round 🤔🤔"
X Link @respeculator 2025-04-29T08:03Z 18.7K followers, 22.9K engagements

"Over the past fortnight Eagle Eye Asset Management have basically underwritten two African mining projects sinking near on A$500m to fully finance the Kobada gold mine in Mali $TRE.AX and the Minim Martap bauxite mine in Cameroon $CAY.AX through to production. Worth watching what other shareholding registers these guys pop up on. 👀👀"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-09T22:46Z 18.7K followers, 2965 engagements

"To take profits on $TMQ or play for the meme energy ala $LAC 🤔. smooth brain FTW I think 🤔 🦌"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-07T00:08Z 18.8K followers, 25K engagements

"3.2mt in August 3.1mt in September 0.8mt in first X days of October Easily clearing the 100ktpd (35.6mtpa) runrate (ignoring wet season impacts). the A$200m contingent payment on hitting 35mtpa run rate for a 3mth period seems all but certain to come at end of October $MIN.AX"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-08T04:30Z 18.7K followers, 6350 engagements

"We aint hockey stick'in yet. but steady growth. Long way to go to China's 1btpa #steel"
X Link @respeculator 2025-09-26T03:07Z 18.7K followers, 3057 engagements

"Another copper assset being sold at 12x EBITDA (after stream on my numbers). joins Khoemacau MATSA and Oz Minerals doing similar. miners are saying copper is going north 👀 $EVN.AX"
X Link @respeculator 2023-12-04T23:38Z 18.7K followers, 31.4K engagements

"No idea about ISR leaching from colemanite but hey. its helps provide critical materials to the US. this theme is hot. and they already have letters of intent with EXIM permits and ready for FID. trades thin on #asx under #5EA or more volume in the US under $FEAM. DYOR"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-13T01:56Z 18.7K followers, 14K engagements

"Remember how $IGO.AX spent $91m on Cosmos in 4Q23 before deciding to throw it into C&M. well here's what capex $BHP has been spending at Nickel West before now threatening C&M and US$5bn impairment. Clearly these miners had no idea what was coming. #nickel"
X Link @respeculator 2024-02-20T03:56Z 18.7K followers, 8439 engagements

"@Toronto242M Think Simberi is A$4bn (13yrs of A$500m FCF pa less A$500m capex). the Canadian Ops maybe another A$2bn NPV (11yrs of A$300m FCF pa)"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-15T10:12Z 18.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@jakestrading18 The best lithium stock out there imo. cos Onslow will carry it. lithium is just the cream. especially if they spin/sell it. $MIN.AX"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-08T06:02Z 18.7K followers, 1518 engagements

"What price for national security sir. or security of supply chains rather. I'm sure you can point to all the western Tungsten project economics at a $300/mtu price pre China ban and clearly say none of them make a positive IRR. now its $650/mtu its a different story. These projects usually require govt assistance to get off the ground for a reason"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-13T03:51Z 18.7K followers, XXX engagements

"The $EQR.AX guys do themselves no favours with regards to marketing themselves but let me try help them out here. (DYOR) The tungsten market is 80ktpa (US$5bn at US$65000/t spot px). 70ktpa of the 80ktpa is produced in China. The remaining 10ktpa (US$650m) is shown below. $EQR.AX are attempting to be 3ktpa of that call it 10ktpa ex China market (25-30%). A doubling of the ex China price will cost those outside of China US$650m pa. Seems like a low price to pay for supply security and to incentivise new ex-China supply. 🤷♂🤷♂"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-12T08:34Z 18.8K followers, 34.1K engagements

"$YAL.AX dividend. I kind of think the over/under is 50cps Im on the OVER with @plumfeeler LFG 🚀"
X Link @respeculator 2025-02-20T04:30Z 18.7K followers, 11.5K engagements

"I made all these numbers up as per usual. but is it possible for $EQR.AX to make A$200m in a US$100k/t #Tungsten price environment (currently US$65000/t) 🤷♂🤷♂🤷♂"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-14T04:51Z 18.8K followers, 23.5K engagements

"@tuvidux @plumfeeler @eadatt She took a big chunk of $SGQ.AX over the weekend. doubling down on Brazil and this is niobium. but the one I am referencing here is #WA1 (asx) which is in her backyard of Western Australia (yes all long the latter)"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-14T03:24Z 18.7K followers, XXX engagements

"$KAR.AX at 9MMboe vs $BPT.AX at 20MMboe+. A$1.3bn vs A$3.3bn. one XXX% Aussie with fully franked dividends vs the other Brazil/US with a buyback. BOTH with short duration Assets. I dunno. i think BPT solve their growth sooner than KAR and if KAR "growth" involves buying a FPSO may god help you all"
X Link @respeculator 2025-02-06T07:08Z 18.8K followers, 6138 engagements

"@cowboybeeshop I've been in $AMI.AX a while. no one likes the 26' guide. but look through and price it at 4x EBITDA and it's a A$1bn stock"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-16T01:24Z 18.8K followers, 8742 engagements

"It is truly embarrassing how many retail want a line by line reason for why a price moved the way it did. this is essentially the answer. create ur own narrative"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-16T03:38Z 18.8K followers, 5949 engagements

"Joined Mark in $EQR.AX here whilst awaiting @HesperianMetals to sort itself out and list. been an absolute lemon but new mgmt recap and Tungsten price moving from US$30000/t to US$65000/t covers many sins. Targeting 3000tpa as a pit pushback means higher throughput and grade. which at $65k/t and XX% payability is A$220m revenue. Costs probably dont move much from current A$100m pa. TBD. still doing some work on it. DYOR"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-08T03:49Z 18.7K followers, 22.4K engagements

"@LambDownUnder I own one African miner which I purchased the past week. havent for a long time. Definitely got less time for those shenanigans as I get older but if the price is right 🤷♂"
X Link @respeculator 2025-09-30T07:04Z 18.7K followers, XXX engagements

"WA gold situation. $GMD.AX genesis mopped up much of what was there. (remember Dacian). $GGP.AX Telfer. $NST.AX Degrey. Westgold $WGX.AX went early with Karora. an absolute lemon. $VAU.AX went next with KOTH. another lemon and $RMS.AX fomo'd into Spartan. $SPR.AX. a bull market makes everyone look smart. Where to next hombre"
X Link @respeculator 2025-09-01T07:33Z 18.7K followers, 7041 engagements

"Copper plays 12mths ago were batshit crazy the asx for eg (then vs now) $CSC - $XX to $XXXX #29M - 60cps to 14cps $SFR - $XX to $XXXXX $AIS - 32cps to 16cps $MAC - $XX to $XX $CYM - 5cps to 2.4cps #A1M - 60cps to 30cps All taken to the woodshed and as they should have. Yet I was told copper stocks only go up and gush cash here over $4/lb. 🧐 These are all getting interesting now btw 👀"
X Link @respeculator 2025-05-20T11:23Z 18.7K followers, 9468 engagements

"Play for the meme energy was the correct play. wish I didnt sell so much. tech energy has arrived in the metals space 😳😳😳😳😳 $TMQ"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-14T19:17Z 18.8K followers, 11.1K engagements

"@Lehman_Bro About 20m shares out (at US$5.66/share is US$115m). Theres 200m CDI at 10:1 FEAM on asx. under 5EA"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-13T02:36Z 18.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@TinInvestor Thinking bout it. Copper business (700ktpa) has to be worth US$25bn+ given where pureplays trade. EVR was purchased for US$10bn. and marketing at US$3bn pa EBIT has to be worth US$25bn. total US$60bn. MCAP is US$50bn. and you get all that Aussie Coal thrown in for nothin 🤔"
X Link @respeculator 2025-09-21T04:03Z 18.7K followers, 1255 engagements

"I think this is right (I made it all up). A$450m MCAP A$350m EV. likely needs to trade at the billion but tbd on how we go. love metals polymetallic FTW $AMI.AX"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-16T04:12Z 18.7K followers, 8043 engagements

"Is #S32 worth another punt here at US$7bn EV X Assets. X. Sierra Gorda (45% Chile Copper). Paid US$2bn. NSR US$45/t (0.4% Cu 0.4g/t Au + Moly) Cost $20/t. margin $25/t on 50mtpa = US$1.25bn S32 share $550m. apply Cu multiple. maybe US$3bn. X. Hermosa (100% USA Zn/Pb/Ag). Paid US$2bn spent US$2bn capex. NSR US$280/t (4% Zn X% Pb 80g/t Ag). Cost US$100/t. on 4.3mtpa = US$600m. maybe US$3bn. (Cannington pays remaining capex) X. Worsley (100% Aus Bauxite/Alumina). Inherited from BHP. costs US$300/t through cycle px US$450/t. margin US$150/t on 4mtpa = US$600m. maybe US$2bn Mgmt is a liability but"
X Link @respeculator 2025-09-30T03:26Z 18.7K followers, 27.8K engagements

"I get why $MLX.AX holders are selling their stock. been a hard grind. for many years. but lemme say this. Investments (ELT 1SN CYM et al) = 10cps cash = 35cps. maybe they dont earn you much but should prob beworth 45cps here. which leaves 40cps for Renison stake. the rerate is this. X. Renison earnings (15cps PBT 10cps NPAT) get distributed and the boomers come for the XX% dividend yield ($1/sh) X. Greentech gets bought out pre delisting in March 2026 and instead of JV interest this rerates to controlling interest. ie 5x EBITDA or $1.20/sh X. #tin rips as anyone studying supply/demand should"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-06T04:51Z 18.7K followers, 10.5K engagements

"I made these numbers up last week but based on todays announcement may not be all that far off the mark (broken clock twice a day etcetera) $10bn over 6yrs to produce 250ktpa. Its $40000/t of annual production. At current $10500/t Cu px margins prob only $4000/t so 10yr payback. on a 6yr build 16years from cash burn to cash gen/breakeven. Surely a bit of hesitation on someone trying another greenfield project of this scale 🤔 #copper $TECK"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-08T10:39Z 18.8K followers, 7399 engagements

"I got a thousand DMs the past couple days about how this market is wild Ive never experienced anything like this Im so scared I cant sleep I need to sell. this is out of control Id love to dump everything and sit out for a month but taxes. the thousand DMs came from one person - @plumfeeler the absolute coward. We ride on folks leave the cowards in the dust 💨💨"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-10T10:15Z 18.8K followers, 9800 engagements

"@TpaeSkinnykat03 I think they sold down some of their TMQ holding to the US govt. but implied value for their XX% of Ambler has gone up multiples with TMQ"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-15T08:03Z 18.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Averaged 100ktpd during August (3.165mt over XX days) and September (1.355mt over 14days) ie 36.5mtpa. seems pretty important 🤔 $MIN.AX"
X Link @respeculator 2025-09-15T09:56Z 18.7K followers, 14.4K engagements

"These mines sell for US$1.5bn. which is around 7.5x avg EBITDA of past few years ($200m). why can't my shitco's trade at these prices $LUN.TO #zinc #copper"
X Link @respeculator 2024-12-09T07:54Z 18.7K followers, 9663 engagements

"NEWC is $150/t Dumb math says $GLEN.L is doing 100mtpa @ $60/t margin here on their thermal coal business ($6bn) 35mtpa @ $85/t margin on the met coal business ($3bn) X% margins on $200bn of trade in their marketing division ($4bn) And $7bn in metals (call it $2.3/lb margin on 3bn lb CuEq) Total: US$20bn MCAP: US$65bn 🤔"
X Link @respeculator 2024-10-16T10:02Z 18.7K followers, 23.8K engagements

"@Toronto242M Folks like to call it leveraged but both Simberi sulphides and Canada are US$1200/oz AISC ops. they just got to navigate the current period of cash burn permitting and financing to reach the promised land"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-15T10:21Z 18.7K followers, XXX engagements

"I think its probably fair to say the average AISC for gold miners has shifted from $1000/oz to $1600/oz over the past 5yrs ( $NEM below). Its also probably fair to say the average AISC for copper miners has shifted from $2/lb to $3/lb over same period ( $FM.TO below) If copper starts trading like gold (ie at 2x the average AISC). look out 👀"
X Link @respeculator 2025-04-23T21:46Z 18.7K followers, 10.5K engagements

"Cannington goes and #S32 has to become the "America's base metals champion" given $TECK has left. with Ambler Hermosa Sierra Gorda and their various early stage base metal investments (Aldebaran American Eagle Sable). Zero reason to be listed on #asx given no earnings/franking credits from Aus. Sell Cannington Spin Aluminium (& Manganese) out list on NYSE. send it 🚀"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-09T06:40Z 18.8K followers, 11.6K engagements

"Apply the 8x base metals in good jurisdiction multiple to the below X projects (4 if we incl Cannington as Hermosa 1.0). and this is US$14bn co vs US$7bn EV today. spin out the African smelters and play the multiple rerate game #S32"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-06T01:56Z 18.7K followers, 11.8K engagements

"The jews run the media the banking system and the legal system. that is just facts not any antisemite piece. I'd be proud too"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-07T07:12Z 18.7K followers, 7416 engagements

"96% premium Great get $NWC.AX. add this to $XAM.AX XX% premium earlier this week and todays rumour on $ADT.AX M&A. anything with copper/base metals getting scooped up 👀👀"
X Link @respeculator 2025-05-21T07:13Z 18.7K followers, 21.2K engagements

"@toiletkingcap @HesperianMetals"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-08T04:01Z 18.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Heres the business case on $SMR.AX Either Coronado taps out here at $185/t PLV $155/t 2nd tier and that makes X for Queensland (Bowen Saraji South Curragh) or coking coal goes sour once more. You know the second option aint an option. See you st $4"
X Link @respeculator 2025-09-17T11:07Z 18.7K followers, 5941 engagements

"I bought $MEK.AX about 15mths ago. it's definitely not cheap and as a value guy I struggle not to dump it (have sold 60%). but good management teams get rewarded in these markets. only need look at $CMM.AX A$6bn valuation. might just ride on here and see what they do. good announcement today"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-16T02:15Z 18.8K followers, 4673 engagements

"Nobody owns enough #copper. just imagine. imagine. that it followed gold this past year. it would be $7.50/lb probably"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-16T03:16Z 18.8K followers, 25.4K engagements

"$BSL.AX were never going to acquire a coal mine fun and games to lock in security of supply. #S32"
X Link @respeculator 2024-05-27T23:00Z 18.7K followers, 4539 engagements

"I think its pretty obvious Onslow is running well north of 35mtpa and likely north of 40mtpa as its not even fully ramped (tbd on wet season impacts). At spot (US$106/t) the operation gets north of A$50/t margin on my math. Or circa A$2bn. $MIN.AX gets XX% of that plus A$12/t CSI/Mining Services margin (A$16/t for every tonne over 40mtpa). So A$1.7bn attrib margin. At A$7.5bn MCAP trades at 4.4x Onslow EBITDA with a 30yr+ mine life. We can whinge about the debt but if the volumes are right youll get $200m contingent $900m carry loan and maybe an additional $1.9bn in attrib FCF from Onslow"
X Link @respeculator 2025-09-22T05:03Z 18.7K followers, 9194 engagements

"If you look out to 2027. #S32 is producing 20Moz pa of silver through its Cannington (2mtpa @ 180gpt = 11Moz) and Hermosa (4.3mtpa @ 80gpt = 9Moz) operations. Both these mines run at "negative costs" meaning the zinc and lead production pays the bills. so the #silver is the margin. If you're a silver bug and believe in $250/oz silver prices. that would be US$5bn in margin from silver alone. I'm just sayin"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-07T05:03Z 18.7K followers, 13.1K engagements

"$TMQ Arctic probably prints US$800m pa Bornite US$400m. Stream half the precious metals at Arctic drops the EBITDA from $820m to $680m pa but pays for the capex. Arctic pays for Bornite capex. You're left with half of $1.1bn (US$550m) annual EBITDA for a couple decades. maybe the rerate from US$350m to US$900m wasn't so wild. 🦌🦌🦌 #smooth"
X Link @respeculator 2025-10-07T05:51Z 18.8K followers, 11K engagements

"The biggest torque to iron ore (by some margin) is $MIN.AX. effectively A$52/t margins here (A$40/t opCo + A$12/t mining services). as OpCo JV partners see most of their cash flow go to MIN for carry loan repay. Running 35mtpa so near on A$2bn for FY26. puts a huge dent into debt stack. Equity trades at A$4.8bn"
X Link @respeculator 2025-07-10T06:43Z 18.7K followers, 15K engagements

"Rough math on $MIN.AX - A$40/t margin on 35mtpa at Onslow (yes they own XX% but have a carry loan). = A$1.4bn. Mining services prob A$1bn and if you are to believe the lithium bulls SC6 is at US$1100/t then maybe its making a further A$0.4bn there. thats A$2.8bn on a A$7bn MCAP company. are we degen'ing enough yet son"
X Link @respeculator 2025-08-20T04:11Z 18.7K followers, 4565 engagements