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@midas79_ "@martin_vargas89 @timpagliara @Balbuzana @ethan2369 @Mnuchindilutio1 @TTX_Network @POTUS @pulte Whether the Ds are FnF themselves or UST is hugely important. If lawsuits have little chance of succeeding and/or expected damage amount is small litigation overhang is minimal and investors wouldn't put substantial discount on valuation. i.e. IPO would go forward as planned"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-12T23:09Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@MattMilim @Mnuchindilutio1 3) SPS conversion can also part of the deal: it happened w/AIG and was listed as a possibility in UST's 2019 housing reform report"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-14T16:14Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@fishermanjuice Is receivership the only specific danger you can think of to JPS It's the only one I have heard that has any real teeth. It also would require UST to lose its SPS and warrants funding commitment would disappear & it would introduce tons of uncertainty into the housing market"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-14T20:16Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

""Treasury could claim it is recapitalizing the companies via SPS conversion to commons." This is a great argument that I hadn't considered before. However it is FHFA not UST that would need to make that argument. $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ 1/"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-15T14:51Z XXX followers, 2948 engagements

"@MattMilim @Mnuchindilutio1 The 2019/2021 letter agreements were an exchange: FnF get to keep their earnings UST gets to increase the LP $-for-$. "SPS conversion" is the same: UST reduces the LP FnF issues them a certain # of common shares in return. Neither is a fundamental alteration to the SPS"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-14T18:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@fishermanjuice @Mnuchindilutio1 @MattMilim Then you have effectively countered your own argument. Shareholder wipeout doesn't cause post-restructuring problems (incl low P/E) bc it didn't w/Chesapeake. Thus it wouldn't necessarily do so w/FnF either. Any P/E malaise for GM/other wipeouts must've been for other reasons"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-15T14:22Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Moreover it should be much more worrisome to common bc only real risk JPS face is rship which wipes out UST's equity stake too. In addition to making the IPO essentially impossible introducing massive uncertainty into the housing market etc. 2/"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-13T02:02Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"This is a clear shot across the bow to current shareholders. IPO buyers won't be subject to many of these risks bc they won't buy while they exist (mainly the ones tied to UST and the SPS). 1/ $FNMA $FMCC $FNMAS $FMCKJ"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-13T02:02Z XXX followers, 2713 engagements

"That's bc HERA specifically XX USC 4617(b)(2)(D) allows FHFA as conservator to take actions to put FnF into a sound and solvent condition which SPS conversion would accomplish. 2/"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-15T14:51Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @davejones406 An easier way to accomplish this is to do something to divorce post-IPO price from pre-IPO entirely like issuing a new class of common. Then the chart would just show the new commons starting at the IPO price with no prior history. Moon from there"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-09-19T17:48Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@martin_vargas89 @timpagliara @Balbuzana @ethan2369 @Mnuchindilutio1 @TTX_Network @POTUS @pulte Do you actually disagree with anything I said Your questions are irrelevant to the topic. Upside of SPS conversion for UST is getting more than XXXX% of the common. If FnF really end up being worth $1T someday an extra 10-15% of the common is extra $100-150B for the taxpayer"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-13T01:43Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@fishermanjuice @Mnuchindilutio1 @MattMilim Correlations not causations. Your 2nd sentence is a bad argument. Restructuring doesn't automatically lead to great bal shts and/or businesses afterward. The farther away from 2008 we get the less connection any P/E has to the events of 2008. Markets have short memories"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-15T14:07Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@FlotoLeatherBag @BillAckman @TylerEHand @pulte The difference here is that legacy common $FNMA $FMCC is not on either side of the deal. They are collateral damage. That's why even Ackman hedged w/JPS. The negotiations will be between UST and the IPO buyers and JPS holders if converting them to common is part of the deal"
X Link @midas79_ 2025-10-13T15:26Z XXX followers, 1249 engagements