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@BradyBGWX "The Outflow says it all here #Melissa #jamaica"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T22:53Z 8435 followers, 3564 engagements

"Catastrophic Flooding inland happening #melissa #jamaica"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T17:13Z 8435 followers, 4533 engagements

"The expansion of the CDO and how it shed the convection to the E is amazing to watch unfold. Id be surprised if Recon didnt find a Cat X or on the extreme brink when they head in there soon. #Melissa #Hurricane #Jamaica"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T04:05Z 8435 followers, 3002 engagements

"The Hunt For Red October #melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T20:52Z 8435 followers, 2951 engagements

"Not sure what NOAA plane is doing. Only theory is that Airforce plane had an unsafe ride and reported it back to NOAA plane Dont want to speculate too much but the NOAA plane is doing swirlies now as well"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T13:27Z 8435 followers, 6694 engagements

"If you ever wondered what a Category X eyewall looked like here it is. Shear power being displayed from Mother Nature in which were seeing catastrophic damage in #Jamaica . Listen to the sound though Taken about an hour or so ago from St. Elizabeth Parish during landfall according to @travismacmillan who said I could share this from his WhatsApp group chat. #melissa #hurricane #jamaicawx"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T18:37Z 8435 followers, 503K engagements

"The Low level WV loop of #Melissa RIing is absolutely mesmerizing. Dont stare too hard Unfortunate this isnt happening in the Open Atlantic like the other beasts this season"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-25T23:24Z 8189 followers, 1393 engagements

"Radar loop of #Melissa from Jamaica. Notice the eyewall contracting and also dipping to the SW/WSW which aligns with Recon. Another sign suggestive of a rapidly intensifying #Hurricane thats continuing to become better primed to be a high end monster. All signs pointing towards continued RI through the night. #jamaica #jamaicawx #cubawx"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T01:47Z 8396 followers, 4444 engagements

"Id expect the WSW to even SW movement to continue in the short term. Its the path of least resistance for the moment with the way its being pressed on from afar in terms of the steering currents Not the outflow But since so far thats why the movement speed is so small. So the questions turns into how long then Because this defines how long Jamaica could have to deal with direct impacts and what parts as well. Im not as cindienr as others that the worst case scanerio unfolds. That being said if we see a continued SW drift and something closer to a W Jamaica landfall(where I was leaning"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T03:17Z 8199 followers, 1564 engagements

"00Z Google Deep mind more focused on western side of the forecast and I think catching onto where Ive been leaning for days now. I think we either see a close call with a W Jamaica landfall or see a landfall on the western half of the island(imagine cutting in half). It has remained the consensus for consistently for past couple days but its where Im going to continue to lead. A little NW wobble this morning but thoughts remain the same. Dont focus on what spaghettis show exactly now as verbatim btw its why I despise them at times. But sometimes they can be a good tool to display run to run"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T11:00Z 8404 followers, 7777 engagements

"Recon finding extrapolated pressure down into the upper 940s now. Nearly a 10MB drop from hours ago when recon was last in there. Maybe slightly too strong with estimate from NHC at 5am. Well see what they find from winds on the N and NE quads given the wobble we had earlier that may be where strongest winds are. Another nap is required at this time however. More coverage will continue after lol #Melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T11:16Z 8355 followers, 3010 engagements

"EWRC quickly developing. Notice how quickly that concentric ring came together. I said that was the only thing stopping an immediate Cat X from happening and here we are. Once completed(which #Melissa appears to be buzzing through rn) it will have an eye that will better withstand any subtle/micro unfavorable features in the environment. But also will then have possibly days to intensify again and take advantage of the only increasingly favorable environment imo. Like I said its been more of a when not if thing with this beast for reaching High End Cat 4- Cat X status. Extremely confident"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T17:39Z 8386 followers, 9093 engagements

"Given we did see a 7mb drop and the inner eyewall still looks to be strongly intact even as the outer eyewall contracts inward we could be looking at a merger possible as well where its more of a handoff and the two combine rather than one throwing a pass to the other and taking over completely. Which would allow the more significant rate of intensification we saw last night to resume(assuming as if it isnt happening already)"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T17:53Z 8398 followers, 3216 engagements

"@AlanYohualli Certainly played a factor Im guessing but there is an EWRC/ or merger happening last few hours still regardless"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T17:59Z 8375 followers, XX engagements

"Seems like it might be a merger. (Loop from last hour) Inner eyewall holds on strong as concentric band comes closer and closer to merging. Also why we may still be continuing to see pressure falls. Also why youre likely not seeing as much of a trade off in winds to the concentric band as you would see in a full EWRC. May not see wind catch up to pressure falls until merger completed possibly but well see what Recon finds the next pass"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T18:40Z 8385 followers, 7366 engagements

"Lines up with what youre seeing on Satellite as well. The combined new and improved eyewall trying to get setup between the tight space now of concentric band strong/compact inner eyewall. #Melissa #jamaica #hurricanenae"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T18:43Z 8386 followers, 2307 engagements

"The fact it still has possibly days over water is the concerning part tbh. I would lean toward a close call of landfall or a western half of Jamaica landfall at this point. If western half of Jamaica landfall that would be a lot of central and Eastern Jamaica into the dirty side of the eye unfortunately. And given how much time over water I wouldnt be shocked to see a full EWRC take place at some point tomorrow or the next day and expand the wind field much more so to say. Stay safe my man and wishing you the best"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T20:25Z 8187 followers, XXX engagements

"39% of u nailed it"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T23:50Z 8406 followers, 2025 engagements

"Faint but noticeable to see the small double wind maxima which could support that merger weve been watching complete this afternoon/evening. A little bit of battle a little bit of expansion of wind field slightly(also intensification plays a part in that) but its building a more stable eye for intensification overnight into tomorrow before likely trying to see how strong it can get and then do a full EWRC or another merger possibly. Rather close together as well and not super spread suggesting we might have a bit of a momentum lag with the merger. Instead of fully-fully closing we likely like"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T00:09Z 8364 followers, 1663 engagements

"Certainly pass the eye test for a 175mph #Hurricane . Thats for sure. An absolute behemoth is going to make landfall into #Jamaica tomorrow #Melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T13:33Z 8391 followers, 2869 engagements

"Mini-Merger may have been the worst thing that couldve happened in terms of reaching max intensity. Like I said Melissa has been methodical but successful from the beginning"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T15:46Z 8384 followers, 1393 engagements

"The next sign #Melissa is going for that Cat X Status Look at the contraction of the eye happening. Now that she has struck her pose and cleared her eye out(which will only get warmer up to XX degrees C now). She will bring her arms together like a figure skater and get more vertical so she can spin the top faster so to say she can try to better ventilate the column of the eye. This what we see take place in our most intense Hurricanes. Those stronger Cat X or Cat X Hurricanes. #hurricane #jamaica"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T09:57Z 8435 followers, 9230 engagements

"Merger pretty much complete(last frame from 30min ago) based on radar and Sat. Based on the pressure falls we were already seeing during this span it seems its pretty much all systems go ahead for RI to continue unfortunately. #Melissa #jamaica #hurricane"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T18:54Z 8435 followers, 4385 engagements

"Latest Dropsonde finding flight level winds XXX knots in N quad. This almost certainly supports a 140-145 knot Cat X Hurricane and we should see an upgrade shortly. Absolutely awful for Jamaica. #Melissa #hurricane"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T07:17Z 8435 followers, 5278 engagements

"N eyewall most recent dropsonde is insane. XXX knots at 923mb 160kts at the surface"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T08:46Z 8435 followers, 4611 engagements

"177 is just under equivalent of 205mph btw. Meaning theres a chance gusts near 200mph are mixing down to the surface infrequently considering this was at 923mb as well. Unbelievable"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T08:49Z 8435 followers, 11.1K engagements

"Seems like conditions are even deteriorating from just about 10-15min ago in Kingston. Camera shaking hard now with gusts Center is continuing to get closer and closer. #Melissa #Jamaica"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T08:44Z 8435 followers, 175.3K engagements

"So heres why all of the mergers and the one you see right now if not a EWRC arent beneficial. We still have that inner core will 175-225+mph winds likely. But then we also have strong gusts in the outer band around the eyewall likely 100+mph wind gusts which will a larger swath of Jamaica. We may not have enough time for a significant contraction of outer band to degrade the inner eyewall enough but well also have that concentric band still rocking away from it. Something a place like Kingston should be watching even though they wont get hit by the inner eyewall likely. #melissa #jamaica"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T10:16Z 8435 followers, 6365 engagements

"Close to the worst case scenario other then the crawl scenario unfolding for #Jamaica as we speak. I dont know how but #Melissa somehow keeps continuing to look more impressive on Satellite with a renewed expansion of the CDO. Hard to say if strengthening but my god is this is ridiculous. Stunning to say the least Inner eyewall coming onshore soon. #hurricane #cat5"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T11:13Z 8435 followers, 20.9K engagements

"Air Force hunters are just saying in the center for the moment and found Extrap down to 892mb now Another mb lower they found in a spot than the last 10-20min. Would love to see that dropsonde data #Melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T13:10Z 8435 followers, 4438 engagements

"Look at the insane storm surge here in Black River St Elizabeth Parish. Catastrophic due to being on the right quad dirty side of the eyewall. #melissa #hurricane"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T20:24Z 8435 followers, 4544 engagements

"One last thought. Noticed the renewed colder cloud tops to the CDO and the increase in coverage and convection to the feeder bands. The threat for catastrophic flash flooding in Jamaica is not over and the threat in Cuba is rising drastically as we speaks thanks to jet enhancement pushing convection out in front in attempt to spin top faster from sides. Regardless of intensity for second landfall this is just as dangerous if not more given the circumstances and whats already happened. Please prepare accordingly overnight if you live in Jamaica. Because you may not be able to see flood waters"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-29T01:27Z 8435 followers, 1791 engagements

"Update XX hours later. Focus of Landfall from Google Deepmind still looks to align with my thoughts on latest guidance. Either Western half of Jamaica landfall or just barely offshore appears to be most likely scenario imo. Expect due W with WSW movements at times possibly(some NW wobbles possible) through today at least imo. #Melissa #Jamaica #cubawx"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T19:08Z 8421 followers, 2961 engagements

"Wasnt canceled but rather likely a merger EWRC as I mentioned. You can see it visibly on radar loop and see subtle signs on recon. Merger makes the most sense based on the continued pressure falls and how quickly it occurred. Regular EWRC tend to take longer and you tend to see the innner eyewall dissipate to the outer one verus combine and meet up like you see here. Pretty much complete now and merger is what likely allowed for continued intensification considering how thermodynamically efficient the environment is for intensification to go along with the UL environment as well. #Melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T19:56Z 8421 followers, 4148 engagements

"Well slightly but definitely not to the extent you would see with a full EWRC. In this case there was too much angular momentum for one eyewall to hold up so we it broaden slightly to the concentric band around and merge so to say. Makes the eye a bit more stable now and also why we were seeing pressure falls occur during as well because the environment was thermodynamically efficient for intensification"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T20:19Z 8414 followers, XXX engagements

"I think the pause stopped 👀 Look at the expansion of the CDO with eye center cut in the middle Holy #Melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T03:16Z 8410 followers, 3097 engagements

"Central pressure continues to plummet and has dropped to 905mb extrapolated and flight level winds continue to go up. Now flight level winds in ENE quad over XXX knots Supports a 150-155 knot Cat X #Hurricane 175-180mph Id argue the current intensity is. #Melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T15:55Z 8427 followers, 3590 engagements

"If you ever wanted to know what extreme rapid intensification of a Hurricane looks like Here it is Meet #HurricaneMelissa Almost Undoubtedly will be the third Cat X of the season soon. Sending my best to Jamaica #jamaicawx #melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T06:17Z 8435 followers, 3493 engagements

"In awe of this satellite presentation currently on #Melissa . Easily the best it has ever looked Again I say no bueno #hurricane #jamaica"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-26T21:56Z 8435 followers, 2698 engagements

"Merger complete now Id say. If not being finalized. Notice outer ring combining and then the transfer/handoff. Radar from 5ish pm to 8:30ish pm. Opportunity for rapid pressure falls if she wants it. Well see though I do think we see winds catch up very soon though. The transfer is a handoff/ combining of forces of energy remember not just visual appearance on radar. I think possibly in part why earlier we didnt the winds catch up as much as I would think based on the pressure drop that occurred. Just some thoughts. Not guaranteed accuracy when dealing with science in real time. #Melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T01:43Z 8435 followers, 4719 engagements

"Good discussion imo to go along with merger discussion. Remember Melissa is methodical she waits until shes ready and then does her thing. Nothing meteorological about this last statement. Just more of a feel thing to this point for the storm"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T02:48Z 8429 followers, 2006 engagements

"Recon has entered and found flight level winds of XXX knots in SE Quad(maybe weakest but hard to say without pass through all quads) and an extrapolated pressure 923mb. Theyre going through WNW quad next it looks #Melissa #Jamaica #Hurricane"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T05:57Z 8431 followers, 2076 engagements

"After appearing to finish merger and intensify again as weve seen. It appears early stages of concentric band are forming again possibly(end of loop data is X hour ago) . Does not mean intensification isnt going to keep happening overnight but its something to watch tomorrow. A completed EWRC would be the worst case for widespread impacts imo for Jamaica so its something to watch. #Melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T06:05Z 8435 followers, XXX engagements

"Its now Naptime. But thats what Category X #Melissa looks like ladies and gentlemen. #Hurricane"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T09:05Z 8435 followers, 2522 engagements

"Another mini merger being completed I believe. Sure looks like it based on SAT and radar combo.(radar from hour ago) These mini merger events keep allowing the eye to become more stable again and make it easier for intensification to keep going. Usually see a full EWRC because the inner eyewall can no longer support itself in the hurricane. I think due to the structure of the environment Melissa is in a sweet spot so to say. Everytime the outerband develops around the inner core due to some version of lack of stability the outerband just feeds the inner core instead of stealing from it. When"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-27T20:03Z 8433 followers, 8546 engagements

"Aint no way thats just 175mph"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T03:47Z 8431 followers, 11.8K engagements

"Babe who is Melissa And why do you have a whole album on your phone for her"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T04:48Z 8429 followers, 3465 engagements

"Absurd stuff Stop it. Look at how #Melissa has grown as well. Extreme UL ventilation a loft surrounding Melissa allowing her to spin the top faster. S Tier stuff from any Typhoon or Hurricane as the youngins say"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T06:43Z 8435 followers, 4245 engagements

"Update the NOAA plane is heading back in. Surprisingly close to where Air Force plane is right now"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T13:37Z 8431 followers, 2862 engagements

"Conditions in Montego Bay are deteriorating quickly #Jamaica #Melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T16:26Z 8435 followers, 6459 engagements

"Video from @JamaicaConstab Look at the wave action and Surge from Black River Jamaica Insane stuff here from #Melissa #Hurricane"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T16:50Z 8435 followers, 3968 engagements

"@oldscarf1stweek To be fair. Its tough to tell these days. Let alone XX hours of sleep the last X days 😂"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-28T19:55Z 8435 followers, XXX engagements

"NW Jamaica on close to W edge of eyewall for reference. One of the more populated areas. Likely notable surge in some places near Montego Bay as well given the coastline setup #melissa"
X Link @BradyBGWX 2025-10-29T02:08Z 8435 followers, 3167 engagements