@walt373 Walter

Walter posts on X about stocks, in the, money, market the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [-----] #

Mentions: [--] #

Followers: [-----] #

CreatorRank: [---------] #

Social Influence

Social category influence finance stocks cryptocurrencies countries technology brands automotive brands currencies social networks celebrities

Social topic influence stocks, in the, money, market, ai, vix, if you, china, wrong, calls

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @stokedonwaves @orrdavid @realherbhoover @blondesnmoney @rodrigoethe @prpl8 @jonheathcote @lurker8679 @harrisonkatz @sowingalphaseed @svrnco @bluechip1 @alphaexllc @frothyassets @ragingventures @biohazard3737 @qtmachine @meiam @glbeaty @vanckzhu

Top assets mentioned Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock (SMCI) ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) pepe in a memes world (PEW) Reddit, Inc. (RDDT)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Steep dropoff in $NFLX search % metric on Alexa: http://t.co/EpRbyoH4 Search % = unbookmarked users should correlate with new subs http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/4251/nflx2.jpg http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/4251/nflx2.jpg"
X Link 2011-12-15T23:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Bought some 30-year TIPS for the first time. 2.4% real yield seems like a good deal"
X Link 2023-10-13T17:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Weird that $OARK was barely up considering $ARKK was +5.6%. Turns out they are short a sort of diagonal call spread They are supposed to be long Actively managed ETFs = negative alpha"
X Link 2023-11-04T18:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Broad indices unch over the past [--] yrs but the $QYLD $XYLD $RYLD covered call ETFs all underperformed"
X Link 2024-01-05T14:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Its impressive how these YieldMax ETFs manage to underperform to consistently. Some days dramatically like $OARK yesterday"
X Link 2024-02-11T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"BTC cash-futures basis trade looks interesting. Spread is 16% annualized. And $BITO has underperformed spot by 17% over the past year. Seems easier to do now with the spot ETFs"
X Link 2024-02-23T22:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Looking at the last S&P [---] rebalance [--] symbols were added: UBER JBL and BLDR. Announced 12/1 and effective 12/18. You'd think this would be somewhat priced in but they were all up 10%+ in a few weeks. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20231201-1467851/1467851_dec2023shuf.pdf https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20231201-1467851/1467851_dec2023shuf.pdf"
X Link 2024-02-24T16:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@drpetetobin So much alpha just shorting every active ETF if most of them didn't have such high borrow rates https://x.com/walt373/status/1698005480994463977 https://x.com/walt373/status/1698005480994463977"
X Link 2024-05-03T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$OXY with the Buffett puts and now $AAPL with the Buffett calls"
X Link 2024-05-04T16:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@harrisonkatz @orrdavid @stoked_on_waves Nicely done. Astronomical effective rate when the stock was at pennies. What % of your FFIE was getting lent out"
X Link 2024-05-16T14:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I asked Deep Research to find me some near-bankrupt companies and it suggested AMC BYND NKLA PTON SPCE. It thought for [--] minutes and wrote me a [--] page report. Not too shabby"
X Link 2025-02-06T19:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@stoked_on_waves I dont think path matters for the option pricing if the market makers are delta hedging daily. Matters for non-hedgers though"
X Link 2025-02-16T01:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Buffett is the 🐐 because hes been doing it for so long"
X Link 2025-02-17T19:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@themagicbakery Might be worth a shot if it trades down to $6 again. I'm short some $4/$5 puts"
X Link 2025-05-30T21:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MEHCQ 23andMe is an interesting special situation. I think it's worth $4-6. Regeneron offered to buy most of it for $256M cash + assuming some liabilities like deferred revenue. Attached monthly financials as of 4/30. Upside with possibility of overbid: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/23andme-founder-aims-restart-auction-with-major-corporate-backing-2025-06-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/23andme-founder-aims-restart-auction-with-major-corporate-backing-2025-06-01/"
X Link 2025-06-02T21:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MEHCQ 23andMe bidding could get a little crazy https://www.wsj.com/articles/23andmes-former-ceo-pushes-purchase-price-nearly-50-million-higher-7ec98421 https://www.wsj.com/articles/23andmes-former-ceo-pushes-purchase-price-nearly-50-million-higher-7ec98421"
X Link 2025-06-05T04:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MEHCQ upside is immense right now. If TTAM/Oracle wants it they need to come in strong since they only get one shot and Regeneron gets the last look. A bid of $500M would make the stock worth $14. $1B bid would make this one for the ages"
X Link 2025-06-05T15:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MEHCQ 23andMe will release its monthly operating report soon which will have the balance sheet post-TTAM sale and show a big positive book value for the first time"
X Link 2025-08-29T17:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MEHCQ book value of $7.46/share excluding intangible assets"
X Link 2025-09-03T04:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@marginofdanger Any idea why MEHCQ has been so weak lately"
X Link 2025-10-17T20:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$IRBT 8-K lots of new info -Waiver to 12/1 -The only potential buyer withdrew last week. They offered a price "significantly below" the stock price -Not in advanced negotiations with anyone now -Likely files bk if no new financing "in the near term" https://www.bamsec.com/filing/115916725000080cik=1159167 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/115916725000080cik=1159167"
X Link 2025-10-27T16:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@stoked_on_waves @RealHerbHoover Also surprised they didn't accept any deal $0. Maybe buyer wanted Carlyle to take a haircut Carlyle allowed restricted $ drawdown bc of talks. If bidder was the vendor I wonder if they played games to get payables paid down a bit. Now Carlyle has nothing left to wait for"
X Link 2025-10-27T17:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I just realized SGOV only requires 1% margin in IBKR. So if you have extra cash you can put it in SGOV for quite a bit more yield than IBKR pays you"
X Link 2025-11-02T04:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"To clarify you shouldn't buy SGOV on margin since the margin interest rate is higher. Even if you have extra cash from short sales. Since I believe IBKR does not net out borrowed cash with short sale cash (you pay margin % on borrowed cash and earn benchmark % on SS cash)"
X Link 2025-11-02T18:57Z [----] followers, 17.6K engagements

"$IRBT 10-Q -Unlikely to make a deal outside of bankruptcy -Unsecured creditors would likely receive little to no recovery in bankruptcy https://www.bamsec.com/filing/115916725000091cik=1159167 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/115916725000091cik=1159167"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@stoked_on_waves FCNCB is OTC. can't buy on margin in IBKR unfortunately"
X Link 2025-11-13T21:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"About half of Simplify's $SVOL is just other Simplify ETFs. $SVOL holds $QIS which holds $FOXY which holds $SBIL. It's like a Simplify ETF Matryoshka doll. Reluctant to retweet this given the number of good folks I know at Simplify. But I'd hope my friends would call me out if they think I've crossed the line. Charging the pass-through cost on $SBIL really flies in the face of industry standards. https://t.co/u7itbYnmzX Reluctant to retweet this given the number of good folks I know at Simplify. But I'd hope my friends would call me out if they think I've crossed the line. Charging the"
X Link 2025-11-24T22:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MEHCQ BK plan confirmed and effective soon. Currently trading at $3.70. I'm guessing it will liquidate for $5-6. Balance sheet as of 10/31 shows about $6.70 of book value (excluding intangible assets):"
X Link 2025-12-04T18:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Matt Levine on HTB stocks. They perform extremely poorly but shorting them still loses money"
X Link 2025-12-04T23:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@MaxJSteinberg Check with their customer support. For a frozen short I've 1) asked them if it was possible to lower the rate and they agreed to and 2) gotten out of a short using the dollar for lot form (pdf) https://www.interactivebrokers.com/download/DollarForLotForm.pdf https://www.interactivebrokers.com/download/DollarForLotForm.pdf"
X Link 2025-12-15T21:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@frothyassets Options may be overpriced if you're delta hedging every day but at the same time massively +EV if you hold w/o hedging. There's that saying you can't eat Sharpe but this kind of lets you. Also capital efficient since you're getting high leverage on an already leveraged portfolio"
X Link 2026-01-07T18:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@blondesnmoney Sell an ITM Jan [----] covered call to get your margin back and not pay taxes"
X Link 2026-01-20T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@orrdavid And it explains why most active managers underperform. Skill is skewed but if you generously assume everyone has average skill picking a random concentrated portfolio means the chance of having a portfolio that holds none of the super stocks is high and doomed to underperform"
X Link 2026-01-23T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SowingAlphaSeed @RodriGo_ethe The long term TIPS have a lot of duration so could fall a lot if long term rates go crazy. But Im guessing the government would rather cap rates than let that happen"
X Link 2026-01-23T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$PEW is a net-net with cash market cap not incinerating money buying back shares and you can sell [----] $2.50 puts for $0.60 (85% IV). Its already a net-net and itd have to fall 40% for those puts to break even. Not sure if Im missing something since short interest is 10%"
X Link 2026-01-28T23:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"RT @RagingVentures: David Swensen: The Biggest Investor Inflows Come Late in the Cycle Morningstar did a study of all of the mutual funds"
X Link 2026-01-21T00:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Gold and TIPS had a pretty close relationship pre-2023. With gold/silver flying some less-hot money might rebalance into TIPS. Real yield at a bit under 2% seems decent"
X Link 2026-01-23T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Been thinking about implications of AI disruption on investing. When incumbents fall and new upstarts emerge stocks usually dont go from [---] to [--] or vice versa overnight - they get there over time forming strong trends"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:37Z [----] followers, 15.9K engagements

"Quality/moat investing is often a bet on stability. The ideal environment for many of these companies is one where the world changes slowly so they easily stay on top and print money decade after decade. Moats wont defend your castle anymore when someone invents bomber planes"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Many investors myself included feel like things are getting increasingly weird in the market. But if its due to AI (and indexing and options) and they keep growing its dangerous to rely on backtests/experience based on a world of stability that doesnt exist anymore"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The makers of AI are probably also the best users of AI. Best use case of AI is coding and improving AI. $20/mo chatbot is just a stepping stone. Endgame is to make god in a box which can figure out hard problems like how to monetize AI cure cancer take over the world etc"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Interesting factoid on S&P [---] options https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=4926074 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=4926074"
X Link 2026-01-26T04:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"These $ORR calls have doubled in a month"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Reddit $RDDT is looking really interesting. 7th most visited site on the internet. 70% yoy revenue growth 21x fwd P/E $2B net cash. Insider just bought $7.5M of stock. Put up [--] profitable quarters so could be eligible for S&P [---] inclusion"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:52Z [----] followers, 25.4K engagements

"If the BDI collapse is due to oversupply. ships last for a long time. Largest shipbuilder is South Korea. $EWY http://t.co/n7lkZ98F http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/009540:KS http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/009540:KS"
X Link 2012-02-05T06:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$BELFA / $BELFB is an interesting spread. Trading near the lows of the range going back to [----]. $BELFA $BELFB pair trade is starting to look like an interesting #specialsits. Since Halloween last year BELFA (the voting stock that controls the company) is up 19% while BELFB (non-voting non-controlling stock) is up 102%. $BELFA $BELFB pair trade is starting to look like an interesting #specialsits. Since Halloween last year BELFA (the voting stock that controls the company) is up 19% while BELFB (non-voting non-controlling stock) is up 102%"
X Link 2025-11-13T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"More broadly Im thinking about the explore/exploit tradeoff. After finding a few of these spending more time exploring starts to make more sense. I think many people find a niche and get stuck at a local maximum not realizing theres a lot more out there than they know"
X Link 2026-01-17T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Nice article on how badly YieldMax ETFs have lagged their underlyings. Big up moves hurt but even for the stocks that were flat/down the ETFs still sucked. Stock/ETF might be pair trades worth doing https://www.etf.com/sections/features/yieldmaxs-income-illusion https://www.etf.com/sections/features/yieldmaxs-income-illusion"
X Link 2026-01-29T19:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"RT @svrnco: Only a matter of time before LLMs start to become good discretionary investors"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@head_ass_420 That and the elevated short interest do give me pause. Have to wonder what Im missing. But my guess is its gotten dumped along with other high-beta tech/intangibles stocks lately"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Breakeven if $ORR makes 7% in half a year. easy bet June 18th [--] strike calls seem randomly underpriced if anyone wants to gamble. June 18th [--] strike calls seem randomly underpriced if anyone wants to gamble"
X Link 2026-01-07T17:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Adding onto this thread - its possible the [--] to [---] companies arent public. I think we could see one-man shows with armies of AI agents take down giant incumbents. What happens to profitability when competition increases 100-fold We assume AGI - bubble but maybe its a crash Been thinking about implications of AI disruption on investing. When incumbents fall and new upstarts emerge stocks usually dont go from [---] to [--] or vice versa overnight - they get there over time forming strong trends. Been thinking about implications of AI disruption on investing. When incumbents fall and new upstarts"
X Link 2026-02-03T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@prpl8 How would this be bearish (Not disagreeing just want to hear your thoughts)"
X Link 2026-02-17T21:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$TLT calls look interesting. Long bonds have gone nowhere for three years and IV is near lows. If the software massacre is to be believed AI could cause a lot of job losses and deflation"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"RT @Jonheathcote: A simple new paper in which we explain why corporate valuations relative to earnings have soared since the early 1980s w"
X Link 2026-02-17T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$TSLA fake bid couldn't have turned out better for shorts. - Major risk was capital raise and fake bid smoked out candidates - SEC probe confirmed now intensified - Option prices cratered - Stock still at $355 Stars aligned if you've been waiting for an entry point imo"
X Link 2018-08-11T17:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Reading When the Wolves Bite. Some answers in here to questions longs and shorts debated endlessly. $HLF"
X Link 2019-02-18T22:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

""Shannon's Demon" is an interesting concept. Claude Shannon's idea that you could take stocks that moved in a random walk even with negative returns and turn them into a profit with systematic rebalancing. Not viable at the time due to transaction costs. But now"
X Link 2019-08-31T03:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@AlbertBridgeCap Im the example above both securities have negative returns"
X Link 2019-08-31T19:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Thought experiment: universe of [---] stocks. One of them returns 1000% and the other [--] return 1% each. So the average return is 10.99%. Then portfolios of [--] stocks are created at random. How many will beat the market Equal to the chance of picking the big winner only 9.6%"
X Link 2019-10-05T22:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Biohazard3737 How much slower would the government had acted if the market hadn't crashed IMO the speed and ferocity of the market crash will have literally saved many lives after this is over"
X Link 2020-03-16T02:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Investors value intelligence conviction and pain tolerance. A success story is Michael Burry in The Big Short. He was years early held to his conviction took the pain and was rewarded for it in the end. The formula works if you're right but is catastrophic if you're wrong"
X Link 2020-06-06T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"But we've seen once great investors unwilling to let go of a stock sector theme strategy or style endure years of pain and it sinks them. Fear of missing the turn and misplaced conviction. Brilliant investors especially fall to this trap - they aren't used to being wrong"
X Link 2020-06-06T22:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Sometimes I joke with my friend that "in the end momentum is my one true god." The market rudely reminds of this from time to time. In an argument between price and fundamentals price always has the last word"
X Link 2020-06-06T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"In interviews with great traders at first it struck me as strange how much they talked about taking losses and risk management and how little they talked about actually having a profitable trading strategy"
X Link 2020-06-06T22:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Eventually it clicked for me. Over the long run due to the geometric nature of compound returns big losses are all that mattered. Reducing the size of losses is the lowest hanging fruit. There are myriad viable strategies but risk management is essential for all"
X Link 2020-06-06T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"It's human nature to want to be right. Admitting you're wrong and taking losses is hard. That's why the first lesson that traders learn is to cut losses and let winners run. It's a very simple concept but counterintuitive difficult and profound"
X Link 2020-06-06T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I think good traders internalize this concept and great traders embrace it and exploit the failure to do so by others. I'm not there yet but I'm working on it"
X Link 2020-06-06T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The market says "2+2=5." You reply "no I'm pretty sure 2+2=4." Someone else comes along and says "You're wrong. 2+2=5". The market takes your money and gives it to the other guy. He writes a book about how the market is always right. The end"
X Link 2020-06-25T01:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Trillions $ of bonds with -ve interest stocks hitting ATH in a depression oil at -$37. Most believed chance of each were 0%. Not to mention bizarre stock squeezes every week. Feels like more than isolated incidents - impossible things are happening with increasing frequency"
X Link 2020-08-15T23:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"IB hiking margin requirements ahead of election"
X Link 2020-09-22T19:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"May the market gods have mercy on my baggy soul for posting this"
X Link 2020-12-31T21:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"A certain investor likes to say "I've seen more stocks go to zero than infinity." It's a funny saying but the math is still extremely unfavorable for shortsellers. I'll walk through an example. Say I'm shorting at stock at $10 thinking it should fall to $3"
X Link 2021-02-15T05:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"It's becoming clear the delta variant is going to be big and the market began adjusting months ago. Treasuries bottomed rotation from commodities/financials back into tech/healthcare. Smallcaps weak. Airlines cruise lines charts ugly. Colder weather and back to school soon"
X Link 2021-07-17T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If a strongly held belief has led you to be on the wrong side of a huge move (say bearish during one of the longest bull markets in history) perhaps your understanding is incomplete or worse correct but useless. How practical is a system that needs [--] years to pay off"
X Link 2021-07-18T19:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$MSFT is an interesting case study. Tech bubble crash wandered in the desert for years got cheap and made it into the Magic Formula mgmt change pivot biz model and caught a secular trend then quality/growth and momentum winner for years on end. Something for everyone. 1/n Microsoft was a great company in [----]. $MSFT was still a great company in [----] - it would take you [--] years for you to break even if you bought it in [----]. Valuation the price you pay matters even for a great company. https://t.co/Z0f8jwz2A5 Microsoft was a great company in [----]. $MSFT was still a great company in [----] - it"
X Link 2021-07-24T20:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"People hate selling at a loss and absolutely love selling going from a loss to breakeven. Known as the disposition effect in behavioral finance. So if you know a lot of people bought at a higher price X you know there are a lot of potential sellers at X. That's resistance"
X Link 2021-07-26T19:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Personally I've found that resisting FOMO resulted in way more missed opportunities than losses prevented. I think my returns improved when I started being less skeptical of everything. Maybe that's just the kind of market we're in though"
X Link 2021-09-03T04:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"A lesson for me over the last couple years is that flows drives price and fundamentals only matter to the extent they drive flows. I know it's become a meme at this point but that's saying something - I think the market as a whole came to understand this and changed. Thread:"
X Link 2021-10-08T05:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"What if I told you. you don't need an edge to make money Yet another thread on Shannon's Demon"
X Link 2021-10-10T01:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The counterintuitive idea behind the Kelly Criterion that's striking to me is that you can improve returns by taking less risk. Seems like many use Kelly to justify more risk but I believe the opposite especially after accounting for uncertainty and correlation. Thread:"
X Link 2021-10-30T23:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Given this asymmetry of severe punishment for overbetting but small penalty for underbetting it seems wise to always underbet. If you're currently overbetting it's a no-brainer to reduce size - returns go up risk goes down plus you'll sleep better and probably live longer"
X Link 2021-10-30T23:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I'm not sure what the official definitions are but I think risk and uncertainty are very different. To me risk is the chance you get unlucky even as you have a good understanding of the bet. Uncertainty is the possibility that your understanding of the bet is flat out wrong"
X Link 2021-10-30T23:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Backtests get a bad rap but they're better than not knowing. If you're trading as if X is true and it turns out X is false that's useful information. Nevermind the question if a pattern will persist - what if it never existed A good backtest is necessary but not sufficient"
X Link 2021-11-07T17:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I was thinking about the Matt Damon crypto commercial and fortune favors the brave strikes me as maybe the worst trading advice. Most people are already too brave they really dont need more encouragement. All the people who end up on Bagholder Quotes started out brave"
X Link 2021-11-27T22:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Be long on the first day of the month sounds like a dumb strategy but look at that CAGR"
X Link 2021-11-30T23:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"What's the best trade to bet on a crypto implosion in the next year"
X Link 2021-12-11T23:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Hardest thing in trading is reducing risk into a drawdown especially when you still believe. You agonize if it will reverse right after bargaining for extra time. But you know deep down you're overexposed. Mistakes were made can't go back in time. Just get to solid ground now"
X Link 2022-01-29T07:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"OTM call to hedge shorts has saved my ass more than once. Worth it if reduces ruin risk from 1% to 0%. Improves returns when it lets you ride out squeezes. Size up and sleep better. Best case is a tax writeoff while you ride your short into the sunset. Puts better if HTB though"
X Link 2022-02-02T05:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"If you bought whenever the market made a new low this year you got a chance to sell for a profit within 1-2 weeks 100% of the time"
X Link 2022-10-13T19:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"ChatGPT already super useful. Feels like we're at the edge of something huge"
X Link 2022-12-10T03:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Some VIX stats over the past [--] months. ChatGPT wrote most of the code"
X Link 2022-12-25T15:48Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements

"Squeezing the last juice out of these lemons is an art. Junk has collapsed in the last few months and these always end with a face ripper. Overconfidence of shorts fuels the rally so the size of the bounce is proportional to chance of worthlessness. Why this market is tricky & exciting: Theres a lot of crap down 80% but worth Zero which will probably bounce +50% just because monkeys will chase. And theres a lot of good stuff down 30% that are worth more which wont bounce because monkeys still own them. 🌳 Why this market is tricky & exciting: Theres a lot of crap down 80% but worth Zero which"
X Link 2022-12-31T18:28Z [----] followers, 17.9K engagements

"Agree with this and not just for novices. For investors who are able to stick around IMO getting "stuck" is the most common mistake. Especially for strategies that praise ability to withstand long periods of underperformance. Can go entire career before realizing you were wrong. (2/2) Novice investors would learn faster by making way more investments. Turnover their first year should be many hundreds of %. When they get stuck on companies like $CVNA industries like shipping or countries like Russia they're sabotaging themselves. (2/2) Novice investors would learn faster by making way more"
X Link 2023-01-07T18:24Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements

"Net liquidity boosted by two sources that should reverse. Or worse don't: [--]. Banks borrowing from Fed discount window at FFR. Expensive relative to deposits. Increase = deepening crisis. [--]. TGA drawdown once debt ceiling is raised. And all hell breaks loose if it isn't"
X Link 2023-03-24T18:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I've reread this post many times and think I'm still under-appreciating its significance. The bar is on the floor for assets w/ low/negative correlation to your portfolio. Low-hanging fruit especially if your portfolio looks different from the index. https://moontowermeta.com/your-portfolio-intuition-is-poor/ https://moontowermeta.com/your-portfolio-intuition-is-poor/"
X Link 2023-03-26T16:30Z [----] followers, 15.5K engagements

"There was a debate was whether BTFP was QE if we should exclude it from the net liquidity formula. Then markets ripped over the next two weeks. IMO the market prices things in much less than people think and does not discriminate between forms and persistence of liquidity"
X Link 2023-04-01T14:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"At the current rate of TGA drawdown it'd be at zero in a month. When this reverses we could have a period when all three components of net liquidity tighten at the same time. Debt ceiling lifted could be bad news masquerading as good news and a prime sell-the-news event"
X Link 2023-04-01T14:32Z [----] followers, 222K engagements

"Once ChatGPT can come up with its own trading strategies it's all over for us. Didn't work out of the box had to fix a few bugs but it did all the heavy lifting for me"
X Link 2023-04-02T17:03Z [----] followers, 35.9K engagements

"I dislike the question "what's your edge" Implication is you're supposed to be grinding away in competitive markets. But sometimes you're shooting fish in a barrel. You win by just showing up don't need an edge to succeed. Other times you need to be elite to even have a shot"
X Link 2023-04-08T14:11Z [----] followers, 26.2K engagements

"QQQ vs net liquidity. This is pretty much the same chart right Starting to think liquidity is the only thing that matters and everything else is just narratives invented after the fact"
X Link 2023-04-13T18:05Z [----] followers, 38.2K engagements

"2% of stocks accounted for all returns over [--] years. Distribution becomes more skewed the longer your holding period. If you picked [--] random stocks chance of picking no winners = [------] = 82%. Long-term concentrated buy and hold is hard mode. Is my logic sound https://t.co/9ZPjtJeKWA https://t.co/9ZPjtJeKWA"
X Link 2023-04-15T15:31Z [----] followers, 121.6K engagements

"Amusing to me when value investors say thinking about macro is a waste of time then buy banks which are just piles of rates and credit bets leveraged up a bunch of times"
X Link 2023-05-11T19:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Conviction is an interesting thing. Having too much and being wrong is how you blow up. But too low conviction and you'll get shaken out at the worst time even if you're right. Not constant either sometimes you enter with high conviction to lose it later. Need to know yourself"
X Link 2023-11-18T15:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Many swear by the low winrate/high payoff trading style but I find myself gravitating toward the high winrate side over time. It's much less likely to get unlucky on multiple high winrate bets. And you can tell more quickly when it stops working and it's not just bad luck"
X Link 2023-12-23T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Don't get too cute A new paper by Mauboussin on pattern recognition in investing. Nice weekend read 👇 Paper in full: https://t.co/ruCg7HRSUE https://t.co/faAnSmoFQ2 A new paper by Mauboussin on pattern recognition in investing. Nice weekend read 👇 Paper in full: https://t.co/ruCg7HRSUE https://t.co/faAnSmoFQ2"
X Link 2023-12-25T17:36Z [----] followers, 23.9K engagements

""I miss the good old days" - said by every generation as they become old and the world is changed by the next generation. The new world is viewed as strange corrupted and broken since it's different from what they got used to as normal and correct. This also happens in markets"
X Link 2024-01-06T17:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Junk factor is going the way of the value factor. Like anything that makes money in markets excess returns eventually get competed away. Bigger squeezes higher borrow costs higher correlation"
X Link 2024-02-27T21:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Not mincing words: "I'm on record of saying so I might as well repeat it the terminal value for foreigners' investments in China is zero." 45:04 I'm a simple man. I see a Russell Napier video I watch. https://t.co/KFXutco5Tn I'm a simple man. I see a Russell Napier video I watch. https://t.co/KFXutco5Tn"
X Link 2024-03-27T03:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Market participants often talk past each other bc they're thinking in different time horizons. Long-term investors live in geometric return land and short-term traders live in arithmetic return land. May be both right/wrong to own the same stock (even more true for options). 6/"
X Link 2024-04-06T16:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Just some thoughts after reading another value letter I feel like I've read [--] times before. Well written educational convincing incl quotes by Marks/Graham notes how the mcap of energy sector NVDA. Fund has beaten the market since inception but underperformed for [--] yrs"
X Link 2024-05-27T18:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"It's pretty bad when you think you are contrarian but you're actually part of the crowd. Maybe not the mainstream but another pretty big crowd. Reminds me of the goth kids in high school who hate conformists and all look the same"
X Link 2024-05-27T18:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$GME stock down and puts getting destroyed down more than calls nice"
X Link 2024-06-04T16:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Once in a while you find a trade so good it changes your beliefs about whats possible in markets"
X Link 2026-01-17T20:36Z [----] followers, 16.4K engagements

"Death watch $EXXI $BTU $LINE $UPL $VNR $CRK $BBEP $BCEI $HK $REXX $WTI $SSE"
X Link 2016-03-12T03:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Excellent securities are rare awful ones are common. One argument for short-selling"
X Link 2017-02-18T22:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"What to read next Leaning toward Sapiens or The Undoing Project"
X Link 2017-07-03T03:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Markets w/ many value investors create ideal environment for trend followers. Dips are bought and sold too soon resulting in smooth momentum. Opposite is true for markets w/ many trend followers. Short unsustainable spikes followed by crashes creating opp for value"
X Link 2017-12-30T18:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Backtested a strategy of shorting a basket of stocks down 80%+ over the past year and a few other technical conditions rebalanced monthly. No fundamentals"
X Link 2019-05-26T23:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This blew my mind. h/t @TheCreditBubble https://medium.com/@curtis.yarvin/the-feds-bailout-could-actually-fail-36b641f85458 https://medium.com/@curtis.yarvin/the-feds-bailout-could-actually-fail-36b641f85458"
X Link 2020-04-14T05:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The philosophical difference between investors and traders is that traders value humility. The name of the book The Intelligent Investor implies other approaches are unintelligent. The allegory of Mr. Market as a manic basket case teaches investors to regard it with contempt. 1/"
X Link 2020-06-06T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Even if you're 100% right on fundamentals if price moves against you enough you'll have to give up. Better to accept this fact and plan for it. The higher the conviction the larger the position the larger the loss and the more difficult but necessary it is to take that loss"
X Link 2020-06-06T22:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"PnL from selling VIX constantly vs only when in contango. From Positional Option Trading by Euan Sinclair"
X Link 2020-11-01T01:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This may surprise some people but stop losses usually have negative expectancy. Noticed this when playing with backtests and it's interesting to contrast with how they are described almost universally as positive. Yet they are still useful. Why Absolute advantage. 1/"
X Link 2021-01-09T20:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Isn't "permanent impairment of capital" just the tuxedo Pooh version of "you can't loose if you don't sell""
X Link 2021-07-16T16:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Highly recommend The Second Leg Down. Tons to think about from this book. Some excerpts that I liked:"
X Link 2021-07-18T04:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"WSB found uranium. Not a bad post either. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pg2pdy/uranium_start_of_a_commodity_supercycle/ https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/pg2pdy/uranium_start_of_a_commodity_supercycle/"
X Link 2021-09-03T00:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Kelly tells you the mathematically optimal bet size given the risk/reward of a bet. When you bet too big your returns fall. Not risk-adjusted returns actual returns. Overbet enough and your returns go negative. But when you underbet you still get most of the returns"
X Link 2021-10-30T23:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@choffstein Anyone who starting trading [--] months ago and isn't bagholding AMC deserves some credit"
X Link 2021-12-15T05:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$ARKK sentiment is so negative right now that I guess it bounces but their habit of selling liquid names to double down on less-liquid losers looks like a Martingale. The portfolio is becoming riskier and more illiquid as it falls. Anyone who trades this way is bound to blow up"
X Link 2022-01-09T17:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Disagree and here's why in a diagram"
X Link 2022-03-08T20:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@TheOneLanceB And assuming buying at point A is profitable point B still gives you higher IRR because you make the same gains in less time https://x.com/walt373/status/1501292366958837763 Disagree and here's why in a diagram https://t.co/x2IBitxYPM https://x.com/walt373/status/1501292366958837763 Disagree and here's why in a diagram https://t.co/x2IBitxYPM"
X Link 2022-03-29T15:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Some are allergic to any position w/ faintest whiff of consensus. Constantly trying to outsmart everyone fighting trends believe deep down it's impossible to outperform w/o a contrarian view. My contrarian take: first-order thinking works way better than second-order thinking"
X Link 2022-07-03T18:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$QRTEA your stock must have absolutely insane upside when your bonds can give you an 8x"
X Link 2023-04-12T14:38Z [----] followers, 28K engagements

"Something is not right when your whole industry looks like a 3x leverage or vol ETF $MJ $MSOS $POTX"
X Link 2023-05-26T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Thinking now could be the time to press junk shorts after a furious squeeze season including BK stocks and the impending demolition of meme stronghold AMC. Note junk weakness as BBBY was being death spiraled. coincidence Student loans restarting might also hamper buyers"
X Link 2023-08-12T13:58Z [----] followers, 42.6K engagements

""Stocks for the long run" is maybe the most strongly held belief among investors but is based on an equity risk premium that's much too high. Staggering to think about how much $ is misallocated based on this. We took the most extreme outlier and called it the expected return. @walt373 Yes. At the risk of appearing self-promotional i would add something i wrote a few years ago: https://t.co/PSHdWSIbPm @walt373 Yes. At the risk of appearing self-promotional i would add something i wrote a few years ago: https://t.co/PSHdWSIbPm"
X Link 2023-09-03T15:43Z [----] followers, 27.3K engagements

"$BBBYQ in a few weeks"
X Link 2023-09-05T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I think I'm much higher than consensus on the chance that AGI happens within the next [--] years. And the resulting bubble could make this year's AI "bubble" a small blip on the chart"
X Link 2023-11-19T16:16Z [----] followers, 32.8K engagements

"New high - buy is a trading rule I apply to almost every situation (or regret that I didn't). If you're bearish cover. If you're bullish get long"
X Link 2023-11-21T18:17Z [----] followers, 13K engagements

"They had us in the first half not gonna lie"
X Link 2023-12-30T06:00Z [----] followers, 58K engagements

"Almost every list of contrarian [----] trades Ive seen is long China. Even Ive taken some profits on puts and Im a China permabear"
X Link 2024-01-01T22:39Z [----] followers, 27.5K engagements

"Concept I have been thinking about: tax-related reflexivity. If you have a large unrealized gain youre incentivized to hold. But if the price starts falling that incentive diminishes and if it turns into a loss becomes an incentive to sell. Could contribute to momentum"
X Link 2024-01-05T01:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Confession: I was fighting the market going up then I talked myself into buying some calls bc they were a cheap hedge. Once I started making money my bearishness gradually faded away. Happened last year in [----] and other times. Flipping is hard. Not above tricking myself to"
X Link 2024-01-20T04:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Did it ever work for these people No. It never does. I mean these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might. But. it might work for us"
X Link 2024-02-03T15:05Z [----] followers, 24.4K engagements

"I've found if I start worrying about a position usually better off closing it. Maybe worries are unfounded - skill issue. But it's an early warning sign. Chances are many others are in the same boat your worries will worsen and you'll get shaken out later at a worse price"
X Link 2024-02-15T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Anyone know what the hell happened to $CYA in Oct last year -85% in a few days. Looks more like a blowup than something more run-of-the-mill. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-16/black-swan-etfs-are-facing-their-own-doomsday-after-a-99-plunge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-16/black-swan-etfs-are-facing-their-own-doomsday-after-a-99-plunge"
X Link 2024-02-21T21:50Z [----] followers, 80K engagements

"A generation of investors was indoctrinated into believing bad is good ugly is beautiful and obvious is obviously wrong. Then along come the know-nothing investors who not knowing any better buy the most obvious winners and outperform"
X Link 2024-02-28T15:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Extremely leveraged long/short portfolios are in vogue right now (e.g. pod shops). They rely heavily on stops to manage risk. Could the failure mode be rogue wave short squeezes where things just gap up hundreds of percent in a single day"
X Link 2024-04-03T15:42Z [----] followers, 90.3K engagements

"Yet another Shannon's Demon musings thread. Imagine a stock that has a 50/50 chance to gain 100% or fall 60% every day. Long term buy and hold will almost guarantee a total loss. But buying for one day is an incredibly good trade: (100-60)/2 = 20% expected return. 1/"
X Link 2024-04-06T16:42Z [----] followers, 60.8K engagements

"How many China investors know Alipay/Ant was stolen from Alibaba VIE investors It was @MarkGutman9 who opened my eyes regarding the REAL risks of investing on Chinese companies at @KYRRadio's excellent podcast (the risk being you don't own the actual company but a VIE). And what's a VIE This MUST-READ article explains it. https://t.co/z1TgvmgAsp It was @MarkGutman9 who opened my eyes regarding the REAL risks of investing on Chinese companies at @KYRRadio's excellent podcast (the risk being you don't own the actual company but a VIE). And what's a VIE This MUST-READ article explains it."
X Link 2024-04-09T17:17Z [----] followers, 45.9K engagements

"The problem with black box strategies is that every strategy has drawdowns and during drawdowns investors have less conviction in things they don't understand. And behind every algo is a human that decides when to pull the plug"
X Link 2024-04-14T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The amount of after-tax alpha you can get with $BOXX is kind of insane. I think it even makes sense to borrow on margin at a slightly higher interest rate to buy it if your tax rate is high and you hold it long enough. You can also leverage it up like [--] times in IB"
X Link 2024-05-01T13:51Z [----] followers, 25.4K engagements

"Mini blowup in Simplify Macro Strategy ETF $FIG selling $CVNA straddles into earnings. Their other ETF $CYA got crushed doing dumb stuff and no longer exists. Sketch. https://x.com/walt373/status/1760421790877102189 Anyone know what the hell happened to $CYA in Oct last year -85% in a few days. Looks more like a blowup than something more run-of-the-mill. https://t.co/5KVMJtWgik https://t.co/GKBEBLvov7 https://x.com/walt373/status/1760421790877102189 Anyone know what the hell happened to $CYA in Oct last year -85% in a few days. Looks more like a blowup than something more run-of-the-mill."
X Link 2024-05-03T17:43Z [----] followers, 119.5K engagements

"Seriously why does one feel compelled to rogue trade in an ETF like this How hard is it to keep your head down and gather assets"
X Link 2024-05-03T18:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"He's got a book coming out. I'm not making this up. https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Trading-Options-Like/dp/1394238959/ref=sr_1_1 https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Trading-Options-Like/dp/1394238959/ref=sr_1_1"
X Link 2024-05-03T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"True contrarianism can't be comfortable. It has to look reckless/dumb come w/ career risk or some barrier to entry. Maybe impossible to implement in an institution where consensus needs to be reached w/ committees/clients. IMO people underestimate how weird it has to be"
X Link 2024-05-27T18:06Z [----] followers, 43.8K engagements

"Assume bargains can get cheaper but the problem with waiting for insane bargains is that they're rarer than big bargains which are rarer than mere bargains. Bird in hand or two in the bush. Some held huge cash positions for decades. Is it conservative or greedy/unrealistic Amazing line from latest Elliott letter: "The trick is not to lose too much money in the bargain phase which always precedes the really big bargains which always precedes the insane bargains which always precedes the magical moment when for no particular reason markets turn" https://t.co/ggJY1gMias Amazing line from latest"
X Link 2024-06-03T18:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"What if $GME just kept doing ATMs until the whole mcap is in cash Then say some crazy stuff and buyback shares below cash. Hire Gill to pump again and sell more shares. Repeat until it stops working. Who needs an actual biz when you have this much interest in your stock"
X Link 2024-06-10T16:21Z [----] followers, 13.7K engagements

"$LOGC delisting on 6/3. Initial reaction -23% but recovered halfway. Old WISH stock now just a cash box with $6/share cash and $2.7B NOLs"
X Link 2025-05-30T21:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"There are two kinds of momentum stocks: ones that are being bought because theyre going up and ones that are being bought despite going up. If the stock starts dipping the buyers become less eager in the former and more eager in the latter"
X Link 2025-06-07T23:17Z [----] followers, 23.9K engagements

"$SOXS [----] $80 calls are bid at $0.28. That's 11% of the SOXS price of $2.58. SOXS would have to go up 31x to get ITM. If semis went down 100% tomorrow this would only 3x. Seems like the path to a 31x is practically impossible considering the vol drag in such a bearish scenario"
X Link 2026-01-08T20:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@SowingAlphaSeed @RodriGo_ethe These could print in a financial repression scenario with lower yields and higher inflation. Gold/silver are the obviously plays but maybe too much bubble risk now for long term positions"
X Link 2026-01-23T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SowingAlphaSeed @RodriGo_ethe $LTPZ only requires 7% margin"
X Link 2026-01-23T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@ShmuelLon Warrants are struck at $11.50 so I don't think they really matter. The lockup ended Jan [--] but maybe insiders plan to sell more"
X Link 2026-01-29T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@spreadbetz Remind me what happened [--] years ago"
X Link 2026-01-29T21:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@finphysnerd Not really sure but I have some guesses. [--]. Covered calls underperform in a bull market [--]. Actively managed so timing could be bad [--]. Paying costs/spreads whenever they trade [--]. They arent delta hedging just letting things run - strong trends will overcome the VRP"
X Link 2026-01-30T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Momentum investors who win on trends caused by real fundamentals take their profits to chase fake trends too. Dumb money that got lucky cant tell the difference but now they have enough capital to really move things"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Investors eventually catch on and the inefficiency of gradual one-way moves start giving way to more sudden sharper moves. Megacaps jumping 10-20% a day and entire sectors (e.g. semis software) move with speed that shock investors who lived in an age of relative stability"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"A lot of stocks go to zero (source: cc: @michaelfritzell @highqhockey http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2017/01/26/treasury-bills-outperform-stocks-say/ http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2017/01/26/treasury-bills-outperform-stocks-say/"
X Link 2017-02-19T06:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"If VIX doubles one day $XIV $SVXY will go to zero. Puts are never hopeless no matter how far otm. Can't say the same for most crash hedges"
X Link 2017-08-14T21:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Sorry couldn't resist. https://x.com/walt373/status/897214585438121984 If VIX doubles one day $XIV $SVXY will go to zero. Puts are never hopeless no matter how far otm. Can't say the same for most crash hedges. https://x.com/walt373/status/897214585438121984 If VIX doubles one day $XIV $SVXY will go to zero. Puts are never hopeless no matter how far otm. Can't say the same for most crash hedges"
X Link 2018-02-06T01:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Crunch time for $TSLA. $230M SCTY converts mature Nov [--]. Makes no sense to pay and file soon after. If BK anytime soon responsible thing to do would be to enter with as much cash as possible to maximize chance of survival and get better DIP terms. Also voidable preference"
X Link 2018-10-20T23:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Here's an interesting concept. Look for trades where you or your counterparty has an absolute advantage. These should be on average better trades than ones based on information asymmetry since they are potentially win-win for both sides"
X Link 2019-01-27T21:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$DHR price-insensitive arbs pushed the price up. Similar split-off exchanges $LMT $PG $LLY all fell in the weeks following the deadline"
X Link 2019-12-16T20:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"TLRY has become a famous short-selling case study and here was @MidwestHedgie calling it. In light of the $TSLA blow-off top here's my Kase Learning short presentation on $TLRY. Lots of chart talk in here. https://t.co/3OyMxWY80c In light of the $TSLA blow-off top here's my Kase Learning short presentation on $TLRY. Lots of chart talk in here. https://t.co/3OyMxWY80c"
X Link 2020-02-15T20:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Value functions well in panics but is helpless in bubbles which seem increasingly common. A framework that expects to ignore them is an implicit bet that the forces driving the trend will reverse. Neither relaxing quality/valuation hurdles nor going high % cash seem appealing"
X Link 2021-05-10T16:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Short term trading TA macro market timing options short selling even active investing in general common wisdom is these are fools errands. But I think the more you trade the less believable market efficiency becomes. Some alpha is hidden by the rules we were told"
X Link 2021-10-22T06:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Suppose you believe a stock is going up first then ultimately down and both the long and short are equally attractive +EV bets. Buy or sell Why not both Think as separate bets. Both happening to be the same stock long and short offset a bonus in terms of risk margin fees"
X Link 2023-03-14T23:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Haven't been following closely but some $ATVI options give you good odds if the deal is likely to go through"
X Link 2023-03-25T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We saw this with companies tinkering with crypto and it predictably flamed out. Difference is crypto has proven its uselessness over years while AI was immediately useful. Even non-tech co's will be fighting in the AI wars and $NVDA will be arming them. Shorting it is dumb IMO"
X Link 2023-05-26T16:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Notably absent from the narrow breadth melt-up is $TSLA. Kicked out of the cool kids club. Market no longer interested in fake AI"
X Link 2023-05-26T18:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I thought this discussion by Cem was very good. Connects the dots on narrow breadth vol compression liquidity all the good stuff. Minute [--]. https://t.co/ej0p4pmc5M Minute [--]. https://t.co/ej0p4pmc5M"
X Link 2023-06-01T04:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@QT_Machine I thought he made a few good timing calls. Did not know about his fund performance. Curious if you have more details"
X Link 2023-06-01T05:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"A clue $ATVI is closing before the 7/18 deadline. $90 7/21 calls for $3 look interesting"
X Link 2023-07-13T14:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"TSLA COIN CVNA now AMC - seems like the market is out to get Chanos. What else is he short"
X Link 2023-07-23T00:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@GameofTrades_ I wonder if the transition to mostly long-term fixed rate mortgages post-GFC makes housing less sensitive to interest rates and thus less of a leading sector of recessions Seems to be a big diff vs previous cycles"
X Link 2023-07-22T18:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Also would explain some anomolies like high vol and glamour stocks underperforming over the long term. They are paying for this option. Some exciting tech stock is a lot more likely to get into a bubble than a boring bank and you get an opportunity to monetize the option"
X Link 2023-07-23T16:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Just for fun a 1000% simple interest rate if compounded daily comes out to 1925283%"
X Link 2023-07-23T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@HotDogCap US govt owns 30% of the shares and MFN owns most of the rest. Seems risky even if shares are ultimately worthless"
X Link 2023-08-01T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Nice video explaining the room temperature superconductor"
X Link 2023-08-02T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Don't know anything about telecom but $T puts look cheap w/ mid-20s IV. Very leveraged. Interest should go higher as they roll debt. 2nd largest non-bank holding in $LQD. A lot of torque if credit spreads blow out. Altman Z-score = [---]. Chart looks ugly. Minimal short interest"
X Link 2023-08-12T17:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Trading days since VIX [--] going back to [----] Calm periods of at least [--] months: [--] Average duration: [---] days Median duration: [---] days Currently: [---] days"
X Link 2023-08-15T18:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$JNJ $KVUE tender offer caused a big volume ramp in both stocks. KVUE borrow rate got up to 54%. Arbs acted rationally to capture that spread but maybe pushed the prices too far from the standpoint of longer term investors. Guessing prices will revert to some degree"
X Link 2023-08-18T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Perryhrod I think the biggest risk is there is a delay of the conversion then your puts die. Or if there's some operational risk with the options/reverse split/conversion/your broker"
X Link 2023-08-19T04:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"It's funny seeing people say $NVDA is in a massive bubble at 35x sales not realizing they are probably trading at like 35x forward earnings"
X Link 2023-08-24T17:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Smart APE sales by Antara before conversion - got 50% more than current price. Prob contributed a lot to the $AMC collapse as it kept spread wide for arbs to pile in. I suspect there were a lot of "one-sided arbs" selling APE as well. 800% CTB is a hell of a limit to arbitrage"
X Link 2023-08-27T14:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Most of the move was just the spread closing. With 2x as many APE shares as $AMC predictable final price would be closer to APE. Apes in for a surprise as short interest and CTB collapse due to arb positions flattening then dilution. Squeeze dreams are over until shorts reload"
X Link 2023-08-27T14:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@me_I_am Almost all the short interest was in the arb which disappeared when their long APE turned into AMC and flattened their short"
X Link 2023-08-29T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@me_I_am APE was converted into AMC now it's just one security with one CUSIP. That's literally the arb"
X Link 2023-08-29T16:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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