@victaurs Avatar @victaurs Victaurs

Victaurs posts on X about ai, fintech, $pypl, growth the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks 44.55% finance 41.82% technology brands 30% cryptocurrencies 5.45% countries 4.55% financial services 1.82% automotive brands 0.91% currencies 0.91%

Social topic influence ai 12.73%, fintech 9.09%, $pypl 6.36%, growth 6.36%, $gpn 5.45%, business 5.45%, market 5.45%, gold 5.45%, in the 4.55%, $rkt 4.55%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @william_r2rclub @gunjanjs @kobeissiletter @realryanhess @thelonginvest @krispatel99 @calebfranzen @jessecoheninv @stacksmarter @thestalwart @hussainresearch @somerealthought @timyanbankalert @jimconn52657931 @aprescapital @aureliusltd28 @rosyprosperity @alphatalon2025

Top assets mentioned PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Global Payments Inc (GPN) Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) loanDepot, Inc. (LDI) StoneCo Ltd. Class A Common Shares (STNE) Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Bank OZK (OZK) Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Flagstar Financial, Inc. (FLG) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Metadium (META) USDC (USDC) NuCypher (NU) Treehouse (TREE) Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (FIGR) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) Now Coin (NOW) monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Asana, Inc. (ASAN) Spotify Technology (SPOT)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"In November I wrote that $EWZ $NU & $STNE were technically strong even with a rising dollar. Most people ignored it. $EWZ has returned about 50% over the last year and still trades around 10.5x earnings with a 4.45.0% dividend yield. People love paying 25x for quality. Then they see $EWZ at 10.5x and call it scary. Same investors. Different passport. Are you buying comfort or price https://t.co/AmRcZbDPmh People love paying 25x for quality. Then they see $EWZ at 10.5x and call it scary. Same investors. Different passport. Are you buying comfort or price https://t.co/AmRcZbDPmh"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@GunjanJS Calling equities the new risk-free rate is not analysis it is surrender to a bubble"
X Link 2025-09-24T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Goldman sees Jefferies exposure at $45M just 5% of projected [----] earnings. The market priced it like a solvency event. That is the spread between fear and fact"
X Link 2025-10-16T20:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"If your upside case on $GPN depends on a flawless multi year integration and 15% EPS growth from synergies that is not a base case that is a wish list. Integration risk plus leverage plus rising competition is not usually the cocktail that earns a 12x multiple"
X Link 2025-12-06T16:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Every value trap I have ever owned started with the same line in my notes. Market is overreacting this is just too cheap. Cheap only matters if the business can still take share grow earnings or earn a rerate. With $GPN you are mostly underwriting survival in a crowded low margin lane. https://t.co/ukz2cRjaKK https://t.co/ukz2cRjaKK"
X Link 2025-12-06T19:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Leverage is not evil. It just magnifies whatever story you are already living. In the Worldpay era $GPN gives you a levered bet on a massive integration going well in a brutally competitive market. If that is the hill you choose to climb size it like one"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$LDI is ripping insiders are selling and analysts are still cutting targets. That's not a contradiction. It's a signal. Mortgage stocks don't move on fundamentals first. They move on rates expectations. 🧵"
X Link 2026-01-22T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"2/4 loanDepot is a high-beta expression of one thing: long rates drifting lower. When that narrative heats up the weakest balance sheets move fastest. Thats why $LDI $TREE $FIGR & $BLNE all light up together"
X Link 2026-01-22T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"3/4 But price moves dont tell you whats already priced in. At the center of this trade sits $RKT. Not because its cleaner but because its where expectations are clearest. At $23 Rocket isnt a rates-down bet. Its a bet that the next leg is still ahead"
X Link 2026-01-22T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I broke down what $23 RKT is already discounting what mortgage volume that implies and why the payoff curve is tightening from here. If youre watching $LDI you need this context. Read it here: 🔗 https://www.victaurs.com/p/what-is-23-rocket-rkt-is-pricing https://www.victaurs.com/p/what-is-23-rocket-rkt-is-pricing"
X Link 2026-01-22T17:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"1/9 $CRCL is no longer trading on hype or headlines. Its trading on policy rates and execution risk. Thats why the stock keeps bleeding even as stablecoin infrastructure screens well on paper. Heres what the market is actually pricing instead. 🧵"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Last year we wrote about Klarnas path from a $45B peak to a $14B reality and why scale without margin is not a moat. https://www.victaurs.com/p/straight-outta-sweden-klarnas-45b https://www.victaurs.com/p/straight-outta-sweden-klarnas-45b"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/3 $UBER Q4 reaction is a reminder of how markets actually work. Strong revenue. Strong bookings. Softer EPS guidance. Stock sells off anyway. This isnt about good or bad earnings. Its about expectations positioning and what investors thought they already owned.🧵 $UBER Q4'25 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $14.37B (Est. $14.32B) 🟢; +20% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.71 (Est. $0.79) 🔴; +27% YoY 🔹 Gross Bookings: $54.14B (Est. $53B) 🟢; +22% YoY 🔹 Trips: 3.80B; +22% YoY Q1'26 Guide: 🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $2.37B$2.47B (Est. $2.45B) 🟢 🔹 Gross https://t.co/o0S2aADACV $UBER Q4'25 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Software tape is splitting in two. $AMD and $AVGO are down single digits still treated like AI plumbing. The application layer is getting repriced like its optional. $CRM $ADBE $NOW $MNDY $ASAN $TEAM are sitting in 45%90% drawdowns. Not because the products stopped working. Because the business model is being questioned. Seat-based saas assumes more headcount more seats higher ARR. AI agents assume the opposite. Fewer seats more automation more custom workflows. Thats the mechanism behind the get me out selling. And heres the weird part: the deeper the drawdown the bigger the Streets"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"1/2 PayPal $PYPL down [--] days in a row is the part everyone sees. What most people miss is what this selloff is actually about. Its not payments are broken. Its that the market is done paying for vague turnarounds + consumer-heavy stories. While $PYPL bleeds some payment businesses are quietly doing the opposite. Growing revenue. Expanding margins. Hitting the numbers they said they would. 🧵 PayPal $PYPL has now declined for [--] consecutive trading days its longest losing streak since January [----] 📉📉 https://t.co/oOmgHqNKMj PayPal $PYPL has now declined for [--] consecutive trading days its"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"PayPal hitting an RSI around [--] + printing [--] straight red days looks extreme on a chart. But oversold doesnt automatically mean investable. This isnt fear about liquidity or survival. Its a credibility reset. $PYPL is cheap because the market no longer trusts the execution path: - Revenue growth stuck in low single digits - Flat EPS guidance when growth was expected - Second CEO change in two years - Branded checkout still losing relevance - Long-term guidance quietly pulled That turns a low multiple into a high hurdle. You can make money here if a lot goes right. Buybacks help. Venmo keeps"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/2 Gold above $5000 but conviction is missing. China keeps buying. The dollar is softer. Rate cuts are back in the conversation. And yet price is going nowhere fast. That usually means forces are cancelling each other out not that the move is over. 🧵 BREAKING: Gold officially reclaims $5000/oz and silver rises back into $80/oz. Another wild week is ahead of us. https://t.co/O2yb31wqdN BREAKING: Gold officially reclaims $5000/oz and silver rises back into $80/oz. Another wild week is ahead of us. https://t.co/O2yb31wqdN"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"2/2 This chart explains the stalemate. Gold keeps leaning into the 200-hour moving average and getting stuck there. Momentum is still positive RSI is firm but upside follow-through fades every time risk appetite improves. Safe-haven demand is being offset by better equity tone and traders waiting on NFP and CPI. Above this level the path opens. Rejected again and this stays a grind not a breakout. For now gold is being supported not chased. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020905739691168214 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020905739691168214"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/3 Pulled a fintech screener and one thing stands out fast. Most of the space is still stuck in downtrends or heavy resistance. Lots of red. Lots of stalled charts. But Brazil-linked names keep quietly showing up on the right side of the screen. 🧵"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"2/3 This is exactly what we flagged last year with $STNE and Brazil more broadly. While US fintech keeps fighting old narratives capital has been rotating into places with cleaner balance sheets buybacks and improving execution. https://www.victaurs.com/p/flows-are-turning-green-in-brazil https://www.victaurs.com/p/flows-are-turning-green-in-brazil"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Gold pulled back in Asia but the bigger picture hasnt changed. Price is still holding above $5K even as risk appetite improves and geopolitical tension cools. That tells you theres no real urgency to sell. This looks more like digestion than distribution"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The floor under gold is still doing the work. Fed rate cuts remain priced into [----] the $ is softening and China just logged its 15th straight month of gold buying. Central banks arent chasing breakouts. Theyre building positions. Momentum has cooled structure hasnt"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"At 4.4x sales and still 40% off highs Spotify looks $SPOT Cheap for what it is Fairly priced now A value trap Still too expensive Cheap for what it is Fairly priced now A value trap Still too expensive"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"3/7 Zoom out and its even clearer why $PYPL trades like a ghost. This was a $300 stock in [----]. Now its back near the IPO zone. That isnt market hates fintech. Thats the market saying the old PayPal is gone"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"4/7 The problem isnt the CEO. Its where the power moved. Payments used to be won at the checkout button. Now its won by whoever owns the platform layer the wallet the rails or the developer default. PayPal is still in the game but its no longer setting the terms"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"5/7 Cheap can be a gift. But most of the time its a warning label. $PYPL looks cheap because growth is soft guidance is cautious and the story keeps getting revised. When a company pulls long-term targets and moves to 1-year well see mode the market stops paying up"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"6/7 Heres the uncomfortable part: this isnt fintech is dead. Its PayPals edge got competed away. Stripe became the developer default. Shop Pay took the Shopify lane. Apple Pay turned checkout into a button inside the OS. PayPal still has scale. It just doesnt control the moment anymore. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021305750480617915 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021305750480617915"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"7/7 Payments look like a graveyard right now. $PYPL is the cleanest example of cheap for a reason. I wrote up what Im seeing across the group plus the broader watchlist and current holdings: https://www.victaurs.com/p/gratitude-as-an-operating-system https://www.victaurs.com/p/gratitude-as-an-operating-system"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Most plans look good on paper. The real test starts when price moves and nerves kick in youre tempted to just adjust it a little. Thats usually where things go wrong"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"2/5 Equity trades around $680M. Mortgage servicing rights carried near $1.6B. Looks like a deep value asset play. It isnt. Theres over $2B of debt ahead of you. This is not cheap. Its leveraged"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Buying banks isnt about picking the fastest horse. Its about buying the horse that doesnt drop dead halfway through the race"
X Link 2025-04-09T13:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"If PayPal were a newly IPOd fintech growing EPS +15% with [--] straight beats and a $6B buyback Would it be trading at [--] Or is the only reason its cheap because people are still mad at 2021"
X Link 2025-07-31T21:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"People call this a credit event. I call it a legal event. Credit risk is when the borrower cannot pay. Legal risk is when three lenders show up at court waving the same invoice. The borrower is fine. The system is not"
X Link 2025-10-11T19:05Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements

"$KLAR selloff isnt about vibes or fintech fatigue. Its about the market repricing from growth to risk. GMV is accelerating revenue per employee looks strong and AI efficiency is real. But volume alone doesnt fix thin take-rates or lender exposure. When loss-reserve questions and lawsuits surface the story shifts from flywheel to solvency. Public markets dont reward ambition. They reward durable economics. We broke this exact tension down before. The context matters. 👇 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019053215984083151 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019053215984083151"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"1/7 Same screener different takeaway. Everyones staring at the green rows. Im looking at the bottom. $PYPL is sitting there in downtrend/heavy resistance land trading like the market has already moved on. Its cheap for a reason. Lets talk about the reason. 👇 1/3 Pulled a fintech screener and one thing stands out fast. Most of the space is still stuck in downtrends or heavy resistance. Lots of red. Lots of stalled charts. But Brazil-linked names keep quietly showing up on the right side of the screen. 🧵 https://t.co/uhZagNgBAB 1/3 Pulled a fintech screener and one thing stands out fast. Most"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Bear and Lehman levered 30-36x into mortgage sludge. $JEF runs closer to 8x backed by daily margined trading assets. The comparison is lazy"
X Link 2025-10-13T15:01Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements

"Quiet fact: a lot of the regionals getting hit hardest are the ones with buyback engines revving $OZK $FCNCA Are there other names where management can play offense here"
X Link 2025-10-19T15:18Z [----] followers, 23.2K engagements

"Some of the most interesting names right now live in the everyones nervous bucket. Think $WAL $CUBI $TBBK $OZK $MBIN $FFBB Real TBVPS growth real hair real debate. If you had to build a basket of 3-5 ugly compounders in banks which tickers would you pick and why"
X Link 2025-12-08T20:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This is the trade on the table. $APO $ARES $OWL All of these "capital management" firms involved heavily in AI & data center loans like $OWL $ARCC and $KKR begin reporting earnings tomorrow. That could be why the market is getting spooked and also explains why liquidity has suddenly dried up for $NVDA's circular financing. https://t.co/k0myJbQ4s9 All of these "capital management" firms involved heavily in AI & data center loans like $OWL $ARCC and $KKR begin reporting earnings tomorrow. That could be why the market is getting spooked and also explains why liquidity has suddenly dried up for"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$APO is one of those great business messy tape names right now. The only debate is timing. Do you buy before Feb [--] or wait for the print"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter 3.91M SAAR. Second lowest pace since [----]. We are basically back to post-GFC transaction volume. This is not a hot market cooling. This is a frozen market trying to thaw. At what point do prices finally feel this"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Here's what nobody tells you about bank investing When it comes to investing in banks the metrics that matter most arent flashy. The real winners focus on compounding value through Revenue Per Share (RPS) Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Tangible Book Value Per Share (TBVPS). 1/5"
X Link 2024-12-24T12:31Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements

"For the smaller bank nerds I keep circling back to names like $UNTY $PLBC $QCRH $SMBC $OPBK $FBIZ $SFBS Not recommendations just places where the TBVPS trend and the current valuation make me curious. Which under followed banks sit on your radar that almost nobody talks about. Tag a ticker you think deserves a deeper look. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998758220916204020 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998758220916204020"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I break this down in detail here including the two screens I use to compare fintechs without pretending theyre the same business. How to separate false inflections from real ones. Read the full piece 👇 https://www.victaurs.com/p/beaten-down-fintechs-broken-charts https://www.victaurs.com/p/beaten-down-fintechs-broken-charts"
X Link 2026-01-28T18:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This one on $RIG was correct. Full link to October write-up below"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"2/7 This chart is the whole mood. MA is basically flat. $AFRM is down but alive. $PYPL is the one getting treated like it's broken. And that's the key point: PayPal isn't getting punished for "fintech is out." It's getting punished for drift-slow growth no clear edge and a checkout product the world keeps routing around. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021305737671303216 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021305737671303216"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Writing up $AXON . any bears or bulls"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"1/5 Everyone keeps talking about $RKT Rocket. The more interesting refi trade is the one most of you would laugh at and move on from. ➝ Messy balance sheet. ➝ Founder control. ➝ Still losing money. And thats the point. 🧵"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$DUOL down around 40% YTD. $TMUS just launched real-time Live Translation built into the network. If communication gets commoditized what are you really paying Duolingo for Is this a structural threat to $DUOL Yes. Core at risk No. Learning wins AI makes DUOL better Short term noise Yes. Core at risk No. Learning wins AI makes DUOL better Short term noise"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"People love paying 25x for quality. Then they see $EWZ at 10.5x and call it scary. Same investors. Different passport. Are you buying comfort or price"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The full Brazil thesis with bond strategy and scenario work is here: https://www.victaurs.com/p/around-the-horn-on-fins-a-technical https://www.victaurs.com/p/around-the-horn-on-fins-a-technical"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$TSM posted record results. Profit up 35%. Meanwhile $AMZN and $GOOGL are guiding massive AI capex. When the builders spend the supplier gets paid. You buying the builders or the shovel seller"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"When the core job is move money from A to B on someone elses rails your destiny is tied to volume and basis points. That is fine for stability less fine for surprise upside. Look at where software is eating the edge in payments and ask yourself whether $GPN is in that room. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997678762159411370 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997678762159411370"
X Link 2025-12-07T14:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Watch your own behavior around names like $GPN. You read one or two bullish writeups buy a too cheap story then spend the next two years collecting any data point that proves you right. Confirmation bias is what turns a 6x stock into a permanent resident of your portfolio"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Investing is not about finding lonely screens with low PEs. It is about owning businesses where the future can honestly look better than the past and where other investors can eventually see that too. In the $GPN Trap piece I tried to map out why that future is so hard to imagine here without heroic assumptions. Premium note is in the reply. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997687315049894154 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997687315049894154"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Buybacks at or below TBVPS only help if the underlying bank can actually grow TBV. Otherwise you just end up owning a bigger slice of something that refuses to move. When you look at names like $STEL $COLB $SFNC $TFIN $FIBK $FRST $USB $BOH $FHB $ZION how many of those have truly earned the right to shrink their float. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998414836342870178 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998414836342870178"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Honest question for the bank crowd. If I told you that over the next [--] years the sector earns mid teens EPS growth and the curve stays mildly sloped which [--] bank tickers would you want to own straight through. Reply with your top [--] and a [--] line reason for each. I will read every answer"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I still own $bpop and $flg which means I am comfortable living with some mess. The common thread is not perfection it is direction. Capital getting stronger NIM improving TBV inching up while the narrative is still too risky. Which ugly but improving banks are on your list right now https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998764641250353446 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998764641250353446"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FLG still has plenty of skeletons. Non accruals are high reserves are thin and New York politics are not exactly a tailwind. But CET1 is over 12% costs are down a third and NIM has risen three quarters in a row. That asymmetry is what keeps me interested. If you hate it I would love to hear why. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998834676723757197 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998834676723757197"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ABL kinda interesting"
X Link 2025-12-12T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Building out a screener for payments types. Any tickers you want to see on it Plese comment"
X Link 2025-12-26T13:48Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements

"Ive seen more shallow line goes up takes on $DAVE than any fintech name lately. Most of them miss the actual riskreward. More importantly they miss the reality inside the numbers. 🧵"
X Link 2026-01-07T14:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"new one on $rkt . what does a $23 mean for the stock in the future"
X Link 2026-01-18T14:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"https://www.victaurs.com/p/what-is-23-rocket-rkt-is-pricing https://www.victaurs.com/p/what-is-23-rocket-rkt-is-pricing"
X Link 2026-01-18T14:35Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements

"I get a lot of questions on $RKT right now. Is it still cheap Is this just a rates trade Did the move already happen At $23 the question is no longer philosophical. Its mechanical. 🧵"
X Link 2026-01-19T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Rocket is a rates down call option but at a $65B market cap the stock is already discounting a friendlier mortagate enviroment. This is no longer about whether rates fall. It's about how much of that future is already priced in"
X Link 2026-01-19T17:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We ran this same math in [----] when $RKT was much cheaper What changed is not the business model. What changed is how fast revenue estimates moved to meet the stock. At 6.5% mortgage rates the setup looks stretched. At 5.5% it starts to line up. https://www.victaurs.com/p/the-math-on-rocket-58b-revenues-40b https://www.victaurs.com/p/the-math-on-rocket-58b-revenues-40b"
X Link 2026-01-19T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"1/4 I get a lot of questions about FDIC limits right now. But the real issue isnt the number. Implicit Deposit Guarantee: Markets already decide which banks are insured long before regulators do. 🧵 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013644961435029543 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013644961435029543"
X Link 2026-01-20T16:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$NVDA isnt broken. Its stuck. AI spend is expanding but Nvidia is trapped between China risk and capital rotation. Until one clears the stock stays range-bound"
X Link 2026-01-23T18:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"AMD jumps 4% after Intels Q4 guidance miss. Is this move A short-term trade A real share shift Too early to tell Overreaction A short-term trade A real share shift Too early to tell Overreaction"
X Link 2026-01-23T19:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Markets reset every day. Your framework should not depend on that"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"1/4 Stablecoin issuers generating $5B in revenue is real. But revenue disruption. Most of this money comes from yield on collateral not from replacing Visa banks or payment rails. 🧵 ⚡ UPDATE: Stablecoin issuers generated $5B in revenue in [----] from supply deployed on Ethereum per Token Terminal. https://t.co/ef3N9nJyDm ⚡ UPDATE: Stablecoin issuers generated $5B in revenue in [----] from supply deployed on Ethereum per Token Terminal. https://t.co/ef3N9nJyDm"
X Link 2026-01-26T18:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"3/4 Most stablecoin volume isnt coffee or payroll. Its: Treasury yield capture Crypto trading collateral Internal ecosystem plumbing Useful. Profitable. Not mainstream payments adoption"
X Link 2026-01-26T18:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We broke this down last year. Why stablecoins wont kill Visa. Why banks wont lose deposits en masse. Why FX fraud + trust still dominate outcomes. [--] Things The Stablecoin People Are Getting Wrong https://www.victaurs.com/p/9-things-the-stablecoin-people-are https://www.victaurs.com/p/9-things-the-stablecoin-people-are"
X Link 2026-01-26T18:03Z [----] followers, 13K engagements

"@RealRyanHess @TheLongInvest Exactly. The slope changes first. Narratives just show up later to justify positioning that already happened"
X Link 2026-01-26T18:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$TSLA down ahead of earnings. Whats your move Buy the dip Wait for earnings Already positioned Sell/stay out Buy the dip Wait for earnings Already positioned Sell/stay out"
X Link 2026-01-26T18:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/4 New accelerators are easy to announce. Returns are harder to earn. Maia [---] going live matters less for specs and more for one question ahead of earnings: Can Azure growth absorb the AI capex bill without margins breaking 🧵 $MSFT Our newest AI accelerator Maia [---] is now online in Azure. Designed for industry-leading inference efficiency it delivers 30% better performance per dollar than current systems. And with 10+ PFLOPS FP4 throughput [--] PFLOPS FP8 and 216GB HBM3e with 7TB/s of memory bandwidth https://t.co/UUiGikO1uB Our newest AI accelerator Maia [---] is now online in Azure. Designed"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MSFT AI story has split into two timelines: Near term Capex doubling Margins flat to down Stock stuck Longer term Azure scale Cost-per-inference falling Operating leverage eventually Earnings decide which timeline the market leans into"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Custom silicon like Maia isnt about beating $NVDA on benchmarks. Its about control: Power efficiency Cost per inference Supply certainty at scale If Azure keeps growing 20%+ while unit costs fall the capex math starts to work"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Jan [--] isnt about AI leadership. Its about whether: Azure growth offsets AI spend Margins hold while capex explodes The stock deserves patience"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Poll: What matters most this quarter Azure growth rate Capex discipline Margins/guidance Copilot adoption Azure growth rate Capex discipline Margins/guidance Copilot adoption"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@KrisPatel99 This reads like balance sheet risk coming off first growth later. Floors form when survival uncertainty clears"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Monday reacts. Tuesday confirms"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"EU car sales rose in [----] but volumes are still well below pre-COVID levels. EVs are gaining share not expanding demand. That difference matters far more for profits than headlines suggest"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Markets today are telling the same story we warned about last summer: AI spending and narrative-driven rallies are dominating price action even as fundamentals lag valuations concentrate + investors rotate into safer or overlooked assets. Gold & silver are hitting records. Small caps are outperforming. Tech is sagging. Thats exactly the environment where discipline pays & pure hype doesnt"
X Link 2026-01-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Payments have been really beaten down good time to take a look. Tomorrow will be taking a look through a fundamental & technical screen on the space. MELI SHOP DLO AFRM STNE LSPD RELY CPAY GLBE MA V MQ TOST ADYEY SOFI AXP PAYO WEX ACIW PYPL FOUR XYZ FISV PSFE GPN FLYW FIS WU DFS"
X Link 2026-01-27T18:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"1/6 The US dollar is quietly sliding to levels last seen years ago. This move isnt about one headline or a sudden shock. If you want to understand why $DXY is falling + whats actually driving it heres the simple breakdown. 🧵"
X Link 2026-01-28T15:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"2/4 Screen Conflict shows up when improving metrics fail to earn permission from the chart. ➪ Valuation looks reasonable. ➪ But weekly structure stays broken. Thats why FOUR PYPL and TOST feel interesting but unbuyable"
X Link 2026-01-28T18:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"3/4 Once you see it the framework snaps into place. Fundamentals dont override structure. They wait for it. Acceleration without confirmation becomes noise. Broken charts turn patience into exposure"
X Link 2026-01-28T18:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"After record highs gold and silver corrected sharply. Fed Chair rumors and a firmer dollar triggered profit-taking pushing silver 20% off its peak and gold briefly below $5000. Volatility looks technical for now not structural"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$META shares jumped even as it guided to up to $135B in AI spending. Normally that kind of cost scares markets. This time it didnt. The reason isnt hype or optimism. Its something Meta showed in Q4 that changes how this spend is being read. 🧵"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Q4 did one key thing for $META. It showed that AI isn't sitting in a lab. It's already embedded in ads. Revenue accelerated ad pricing improved and engagement kept rising. Market read the spend as scaling something that's already working"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Thats why the AI spend is being treated differently. Meta isnt funding a new business from scratch. Its layering AI into an ad engine already throwing off cash. The market isnt underwriting a bet. Its underwriting acceleration"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This also explains the capex scale. Meta isnt chasing AI visibility. Its building infrastructure to push marginal gains across billions of impressions. Small improvements in targeting and pricing compound fast at this scale"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@CalebFranzen Selling strength isnt bearish. Its respecting how quickly regimes change"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@JesseCohenInv Notice what didnt break. Energy barely moved. Thats not broad commodity demand collapsing its speculative metals unwinding"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Safe haven low volatility. Crowded trades unwind fast"
X Link 2026-01-30T17:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@StackSmarter Volatility doesnt break a bull run. Chasing every dip without sizing discipline does"
X Link 2026-01-30T17:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"2/9 $CRCL isnt being valued as fintech. Its being valued as a rate-sensitive utility with political optionality. USDC circulation is large but revenue still depends heavily on interest income rather than transaction fees. That distinction matters. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018423189907640567 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018423189907640567"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"3/9 The CLARITY Act delay is not noise. It introduces duration risk. Without legislative protection for private issuance Circle's "regulatory moat" can flip into a constraint especially if banks dictate reserve terms or capital requirements. https://x.com/CryptoTice_/status/2018263124663525824 https://x.com/CryptoTice_/status/2018263124663525824 SEC CHAIR PAUL ATKINS IS PRESSING CONGRESS TO PASS THE CLARITY ACT NOW. Its really crucial for Congress at this moment in time to step forward and come up with crypto legislation. Thats not a casual comment. Thats the head of the SEC admitting the"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"4/9 Kevin Warsh changes the framing. Not anti-blockchain but skeptical of private money. A wholesale CBDC or bank-led dollar plumbing favors incumbents. That turns Circle from disruptor into potential service provider. Margins compress fast in that world. https://x.com/saylor/status/2017235357964599336 https://x.com/saylor/status/2017235357964599336"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"5/9 Circles sensitivity is measurable. Every 25bps cut hits net interest income by roughly $185M. Until transaction fees replace yield CRCL is exposed to rate cuts not insulated by growth. Thats the core mismatch"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"6/9 Arc Network and Stage-2 fees are supposed to shift Circle from yield to fees. But execution is the risk. If adoption lags the infrastructure narrative collapses into dead weight. Thats why the stock keeps de-rating not stabilizing"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"7/9 Price action is doing the talking. Options show hesitation not conviction. Put/Call sits near parity while open interest leans mildly bullish. That says holders are patient traders are hedged. The market is waiting for execution not buying the story early"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"8/9 Below $60 CRCL stops trading like infrastructure and starts trading like a balance sheet. Above $80 the market needs proof. Real fee capture. Lower rate sensitivity. Clear execution. Until then price is doing exactly what it should. Waiting"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"USDC growth is real. The market is still pricing Circle like a cyclical rate trade not a payments network with operating leverage"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"2/3 This is why we pushed back late last year on the idea that Uber was dirt cheap. The real wasnt growth. It was how much cash is truly deployable for shareholders vs what looks good on the surface. This thread is worth revisiting today 👇 https://x.com/victaurs/status/2012175484012929334 Once you adjust for insurance reserve growth and stock based compensation Ubers free cash flow tells a different story. What looks like 16x free cash flow is closer to 40x plus on true shareholder cash. That changes the risk and the required growth assumptions. https://t.co/dwkIi5gsZG"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"3/3 We laid out the framework behind this trade months ago. How much cash is real How much is optical And what assumptions youre implicitly underwriting at todays valuation. The piece still holds up. Full deep dive https://www.victaurs.com/p/the-16x-fcf-mirage-should-you-buy https://www.victaurs.com/p/the-16x-fcf-mirage-should-you-buy"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TheStalwart This chart doesnt scream top. It says concentration reached an extreme. Those moments usually mark a shift in who drives returns not an immediate collapse"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/2 SpaceX is reportedly pushing for early index inclusion ahead of a massive IPO. That tells you almost everything you need to know about what an IPO really is. An IPO isnt validation. Its the moment control shifts from insiders to the market and price discovery begins under real supply. When companies optimize for benchmarks flows and distribution before the stock even trades theyre managing demand not proving durability. That setup is exactly why so many hot IPOs turn investors into exit liquidity. I wrote this as a guide to avoiding that mistake. 🧵"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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