@vanillager Avatar @vanillager vanillager

vanillager posts on X about in the, gold, $sbsw, $fres the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance cryptocurrencies stocks countries technology brands travel destinations automotive brands social networks currencies

Social topic influence in the, gold, $sbsw #21, $fres #2, insurance, $arg #24, $igic #3, company, money, stocks

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @calvinfroedge @blondesnmoney @sowingalphaseed @sfarringtonbkc @aureliusltd28 @goldforecast @thestalwart @taobanker @deepdishenjoyer @bennpeifert @dondurrett @nestbetter @gavmccracken @ragingbullcap @capnek123 @footnotesfirst @zeecontrarian1 @yellowlablife @buycheapnpray @theroichannel

Top assets mentioned Argentine Football Association Fan Token (ARG) apM Coin (APM) Ecopetrol S.A (EC) Borr Drilling Limited (BORR) Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Treehouse Foods, Inc. (THS) Nexa (NEXA) Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM) Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) Crocs, Inc. (CROX) SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM) GMX (GMX) Portillo’s Inc. (PTLO) Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.-Petrobras (PBR.A)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@quantian1 Samsara $IOT Cambricon $688256"
X Link 2024-12-25T04:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@blondesnmoney Yes 8.5% portfolio weight"
X Link 2024-12-31T19:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@SFarringtonBKC Great post but Im not sure that taxation of premium from selling options is as you describe it here. My understanding is that the gains are always either short term or if the options are exercised rolled into the stock. Selling a year out doesnt get you long term treatment"
X Link 2025-01-01T15:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Aureliusltd28 @DoNotLose It may not matter. Juniors will likely be senior to seniors. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-08/56496-GSE.pdf https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-08/56496-GSE.pdf"
X Link 2025-01-04T00:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@bennpeifert How should retail investors think about tail hedging"
X Link 2025-01-05T03:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@private_dataguy @SFarringtonBKC thoughts on this"
X Link 2025-01-10T04:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Delta9Echo @ManoletePLC Really odd that this otherwise long and comprehensive article doesnt mention $BUR Burford the larger name in the space. Did Manolete compensate you for writing this"
X Link 2025-01-28T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Third I cut 50% of $BORR (wanted to trim offshore exposure just a bit) and $XOVR (ditto technology). I also cut 100% of $CICOF (US sanctions) $CBL (too hard) $BTU (rotated into better-quality international coal) and $CNNEF (oops that's a shitco how'd that get in there)"
X Link 2025-02-03T03:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@o_wutang Flood is mostly insured through the National Flood Insurance Program not the private market. Premiums charged dont necessarily correspond well to risk"
X Link 2025-03-03T05:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"If anyone has any thoughts on these names especially the ones that are less well known I'd like to hear them"
X Link 2025-03-14T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Exited $1258"
X Link 2025-03-17T02:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Finally got up to a full (0.4%) position in $THS Tharisa this morning. This one is annoyingly illiquid but the price is right"
X Link 2025-03-17T22:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Big move in $MJS today. Whos buying"
X Link 2025-03-20T18:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@SethCL Did they discuss their modeling approach Some variant of aggregate investor allocation to equities"
X Link 2025-03-23T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DonDurrett @GoldForecast Made another pass. Leaning towards this. I'm a coward: I like proven FCF dislike debt and fear debt that isn't covered by FCF. I want upside but I also want to win if silver stays flat. Fresnillo and a few others fit the bill. How do you get comfortable with CDE and HL debt"
X Link 2025-04-13T15:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Energy (22.9%) - Latin America is attractive. All of this stuff is cheap and can survive a prolonged period of depressed energy prices. Geopark is very cheap. Gold (16.0%) - The entire sector is cheap and so there's no reason not to diversify. Globex is an oddball (there are writeups) and might take longer to play out. Majestic Gold is a growing dividend-paying net-net but much of the money is in China. Dynacor has a great unique business model but is working through some issues at the moment. Silver (8.0%) - This sector is . . . not so cheap. There are many companies I can't stomach"
X Link 2025-04-16T13:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"On the short side I'm short the Russell (large size) defective ETFs duration junk bonds and the dollar (smalll size). With the robot race coming up this weekend and earnings next week I think I'll buy some near-term 200-strike Tesla puts tomorrow (nb: this is gambling). Looking forward to mostly ignoring the markets after that. Thanks for reading"
X Link 2025-04-16T13:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"What does Warren buy Its clear where he sees value in this market. Who succeeds Ajit Recall that he sold half his shares in September. How does Evan top this Theres only one mountain he hasn't climbed. Its a good story and I cant talk myself out of it"
X Link 2025-05-02T19:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@SowingAlphaSeed These are my #1 and #4 positions and given their internal diversification and low weighting (lower than yours) Im comfortable letting them run indefinitely. I dont like taxes and so dont sell winners until their weight or price departure from what I think is fair is extreme"
X Link 2025-07-01T00:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SowingAlphaSeed The can I sleep at night heuristic is great too. If I feel inclined to monitor a position beyond checking the financials once a quarter I cut it down immediately and keep cutting until I go back to not caring. Better to sell than waste time listening to an earnings call"
X Link 2025-07-01T00:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@GStockman24 So [--] positions Thats too small of a sample. Even if I beat the index for several years in a row it would be impossible to say whether or not that was due to skill. If I could only come up with [--] names Id size them small and put most of my money in an index fund"
X Link 2025-07-18T18:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@calvinfroedge I agree with the sentiment but this is chart crime. There are seven 12-year periods between [----] and [----]. This means that despite the number of dots on the chart there are really only seven non-overlapping data points"
X Link 2025-07-21T20:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@calvinfroedge My largest Toronto-listed holdings are $FFH $ARG $TAL $APM $SCZ $CSU and $MJS. There is a spectrum of risk and reward here but these are all excellent high-quality companies"
X Link 2025-07-25T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$CROX is cheap. It's growing - or at least not shrinking much - has a good balance sheet and is throwing off a lot of cash that is being returned to shareholders via buybacks. This isn't unusual. My portfolio has a lot of companies like this. The unusual thing is that Crocs isn't a Kazakh bank or Peruvian oil producer or Japanese logistics firm. It's a US-listed US-domiciled retail brand with broad name recognition and presumably at least a little bit of pricing power. I don't own any companies like that because in this market companies like that tend to have valuations that I can't stomach."
X Link 2025-08-06T21:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$CROX is down 25% today one day after I bought it. This is objectively funny and I'm leaving the post up. My sizing (2.5% + 0.03% in call options) was clearly wrong. The revenue guidance was a surprise and so I was fundamentally wrong in at least my assessment of that. The size of the tax loss and the possibility that I was fundamentally wrong in my assessment of the business are just too large to ignore. It was an easy decision to exit the entire position to harvest the loss. But I do still like the lack of correlation with my other bets and I still have the sense that in the longer term"
X Link 2025-08-07T14:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"An interesting thing about the US debt is that there's very little of it maturing in 2036-2038. 30-year bonds were discontinued in [----] due to the expectation of persistent budget surpluses. When they were reintroduced in [----] issuance volume was low and it didn't ramp up again until [----]. I think I may have seen a post about this at some point but I haven't heard any discussion about it. The gap is clearly visible in the Monthly Statement of the Public Debt. Both the Fed's nominal yield curve and market prices of off-the-run bonds seem to show normal pricing (monotonically increasing yields)"
X Link 2025-08-25T01:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I had a small $TNA short but closed it for two reasons. First while volatility drag adds to short returns in mean-reverting markets the same math detracts from short returns in trending markets. For example since the April bottom $VTWO is up 42% but $TNA is up 153% (rather than the arithmetic equivalent 3*42% = 126%). This is meaningful underperformance especially considering the size of my short position. By shorting the leveraged ETF I'd be making a bet on the near-term path that the market will follow. I have no view on that and so don't want to bet on it. This additional sensitivity just"
X Link 2025-09-18T22:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@toiletkingcap $VIX"
X Link 2025-09-25T16:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$SBSW stock and calls are 4x for me year to date thanks entirely to @calvinfroedge. It screened like garbage. But Calvin correctly flagged it as an asymmetric basket of options with a durable floor. Incredible contrarian insight and conveyed in a way that made it irrefutable. I spent all of last year pounding the table on PGMs. $sbsw $impuy $angpy $pall $pplt LOOK AT THIS CHART. LOOK AT IT. https://t.co/dhxXEI7KvU I spent all of last year pounding the table on PGMs. $sbsw $impuy $angpy $pall $pplt LOOK AT THIS CHART. LOOK AT IT. https://t.co/dhxXEI7KvU"
X Link 2025-09-27T17:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"My read is that Tether's coverage of its overwhelmingly dollar-denominated reserves is so high that there's unlikely to be forced liquidation of anything other than Treasuries. Tether's investment in gold appears to be mostly driven by diversification. This pivot to gold is something that just about every institutional pot of money should be doing should have already done. But norms for most institutions are slow to change while Tether can generally do whatever it wants. So while you see this development as bearish (raises the possibility of forced selling in a tail event) I see it as bullish"
X Link 2025-10-05T17:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@finphysnerd Are you accounting for the borrow"
X Link 2025-10-07T00:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Investing psychology is interesting. Two things precious metals and tech have been on an unprecedented run this year. The rally in the thing I'm long (precious metals) feels to me like it's constantly at risk perpetually on the verge of collapse. People who are heavily invested and deeply knowledgable about the space have been calling for an imminent pullback pretty much the whole way up. And I absolutely get it. It's weird for something so unloved to go straight up for so long without stopping. It feels tenuous. On the other hand the rally in the thing I'm not participating in (tech) feels"
X Link 2025-10-10T00:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@partners_road @grok assess the accuracy of this statement"
X Link 2025-10-11T00:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Largest holdings approaching yearend: (1) $9435 Hikari Tsushin (2) $SBSW Sibanye-Stillwater (+ call options) (3) $ARG Amerigo Resources (4) $FRES Fresnillo (5) Fannie and Freddie $50-par junior prefs (6) $FFH Fairfax Financial Holdings (7) $IGIC International General Insurance Company (8) $NEXA Nexa Resources (new) (9) $ORR Militia Long/Short Equity ETF (10) $APM Andean Precious Metals (11) $WPM Wheaton Precious Metals (new) (12) $BSM Black Stone Minerals (13) $MLX Metals X (14) $SCZ Santacruz Silver Mining (15) $NRP Natural Resource Partners"
X Link 2025-12-12T01:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@NestBetter I own Burford and I own Globex. But I think Hikari Tsushin $9435 is a fatter pitch than those (or anything else). It's a capital-light business + a levered diversified portfolio of cheap equities. It trades at 10x earnings compounds at 20% and can be bought with borrowed yen"
X Link 2025-02-16T03:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"As my junior-miner-heavy portfolio faces potential annihilation Im especially happy that my largest position is and will be $9435.jp Hikari Tsushin. Its the best stock I own by an enormous margin and gets almost no attention here. $9435.JP Hikari Tsushin https://t.co/ual7FkGtkv $9435.JP Hikari Tsushin https://t.co/ual7FkGtkv"
X Link 2025-10-28T20:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"(1) $9435 Hikari Tsushin (2) $SBSW Sibanye-Stillwater (+ call options) (3) $ARG Amerigo Resources (4) $FRES Fresnillo big gap (5) $FFH Fairfax Financial Holdings (6) Fannie and Freddie $50-par junior prefs (7) $ORR Militia Long/Short Equity ETF (8) $IGIC International General Insurance Company big gap (9) $MLX Metals X (10) $BSM Black Stone Minerals (11) $APM Andean Precious Metals (12) $NRP Natural Resource Partners (13) $SCZ Santacruz Silver Mining (14) $NEXA Nexa Resources (15) $URNJ Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (16) $HSBK Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan (17) $EC Ecopetrol (18) $ITRG Integra"
X Link 2026-01-09T05:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@capnek123 it would be great to hear @FootnotesFirst tackle some more difficult/technical market topics instead of rehashing the thesis. Questions - [--]. The conversion bottleneck puts downward pressure on the price of U3O8 and makes overfeeding impossible. How and when does Mike expect the conversion bottleneck to be cleared Whats stopping the oligopolistic converters from harvesting supernormal profits at the expense of miners for years to come [--]. There appears to be an onshore glut of EUP at the major utilities. How long does Mike expect it to take for this glut to be cleared [--]. China has"
X Link 2024-11-09T19:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@variance_swap When did Converdyn conversion capacity increase"
X Link 2024-12-01T05:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Appreciate the post. Your analyses on other metals and projects have been well done and helpful. I have some points that you may want to consider. These points are neither bullish nor bearish. First the uranium thesis is predominantly driven by fuel supply not by reactor demand. Its very clear that production will fall short of consumption for the foreseeable future with or without new reactor construction. Its less clear as to whether or not existing above-ground inventories will be sufficient to bridge the production gap. Second weighing fuel supply against reactor demand - which is itself"
X Link 2024-12-04T00:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@calvinfroedge"
X Link 2024-12-15T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ZeeContrarian1 Wouldnt the strategy of putting on a UVXY short when the VIX spikes to some arbitrarily high level (30 [--] [--] whatever) have resulted in significant losses in March of [----] The VIX usually doesnt grind higher when its already elevated but it can. Right"
X Link 2024-12-26T02:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@SFarringtonBKC RLI is a top-tier operation. Had not noticed the price decline. Thanks for flagging"
X Link 2025-01-30T19:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"First I own $IGIC $SBSW $GLDXF $GLDM and the Fannie and Freddie $50-strike prefs in much greater quantity than in the model. The $IGIC and prefs are older positions already trimmed a lot. I'd planned to acquire the $GLDXF more slowly but it's been moving too fast for that"
X Link 2025-02-03T03:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Second I added 50% more $FRFHF and $SSL. Fairfax is about as well positioned as $IGIC and offers more protection against idiosyncratic risk so that's mostly a rotation. I did a bit more work on Sasol and it's even cheaper than I initially thought (so: incredibly cheap)"
X Link 2025-02-03T03:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@patrickadownes Wheres the other screenshot"
X Link 2025-02-04T23:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 It's already near the top. US operations have strong leadership and consistently solid underwriting. And Prem"
X Link 2025-02-14T02:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@YellowLabLife Which broker did you use Boom Any thoughts on $OGC on the TSX"
X Link 2025-02-17T00:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BuyCheapNPray $SSRM is still cheap. No view on $MIND"
X Link 2025-02-19T22:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AAGresearch Gold"
X Link 2025-02-25T04:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$PARA offer does not include an odd lot provision"
X Link 2025-02-25T11:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@blondesnmoney 16gb is the minimum now"
X Link 2025-03-06T22:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I made three significant changes to my portfolio last week and Monday that I feel pretty good about: [--]. Opened a big $IWM short which I expect to keep on indefinitely or until I find a basket of even worse ETFs to replace it. I'm still net long but my correlation to the market should now be minimal. This one position accounted for half of my gain for the week and did wonders for intraday volatility. Really should have put this one on earlier. [--]. Sold most of the operating businesses with bad balance sheets. It's just not worth owning these when the opportunity set for debt-free and"
X Link 2025-03-08T00:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@gruust https://www.quantumonline.com https://www.quantumonline.com"
X Link 2025-03-12T00:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@theroichannel @RealRickRule Globex $GMX $GLBXF mentioned. He owns it"
X Link 2025-03-13T01:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$MLX $MLXEF only up 15% I'll take more of that too. I started the year equally weighted between the two and only added 50% to my $MLX share count in late February. Even so $MLX gains are now in excess of $AFM losses. Diversification is a free lunch"
X Link 2025-03-14T00:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Apart from Sibanye all of these companies have clean balance sheets. Most have no net debt and the ones that don't will get there soon. Apart from Sibanye all of these companies are generating cash and many are returning it. Management quality is good-to-excellent"
X Link 2025-03-14T13:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@super_macro Nice bund call"
X Link 2025-03-15T20:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Jonathan_Keith2 BAM 10-K is out https://bam.brookfield.com/reports-filings/annual-reports https://bam.brookfield.com/reports-filings/annual-reports"
X Link 2025-03-18T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@JackFarley96 @biancoresearch @JackFarley96 Suggestion: if you can easily determine a person's political affiliation from their commentary consider not inviting that person onto your show. Signal-to-noise decreases and quality suffers. Big fan keep up the good work"
X Link 2025-03-21T14:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@secretlyaninja @Luke_mcguire_ Difficult to understand the $RMLFF price action today. It appears that the market is pricing in a RT win with no adjustments + valuing the additional junior compensation (which admittedly we have no detail on) at a steep discount to the $1.5b face amount. Seems pessimistic"
X Link 2025-03-24T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Have since increased Fresnillo $FRES to 4.0% which is about the most I ever allocate to anything. Dropped China Nonferrous $1258 completely in response to a tailings dam failure. Increased Amerigo $ARG to 1.0% and Central Asia Metals $CAML to 0.6%. Added Tharisa $THS at 0.4%. Gold is a rock with limited utility and I have no particular interest in commodities. But some of the miners are so cheap relative to current cash generation and/or future asymmetric upside that I feel like I need to own them. Here are my [--] largest mining positions: https://t.co/iMlq36JsEJ Gold is a rock with limited"
X Link 2025-03-28T13:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Neil_X10 @PythiaR @KarstResearch @blondesnmoney @DJ_EBITDA Why would anyone care about an insurer's cash flow"
X Link 2025-04-01T01:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I know that I only have maybe [--] non-bot followers but I am still deeply deeply offended by the lack of engagement here"
X Link 2025-04-03T00:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Aureliusltd28 Why do you think yields go down from here"
X Link 2025-04-03T12:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Aureliusltd28 If we have a crisis brought on entirely by US unreliability/irrationality I'm not sure that demand for Treasuries goes up. Maybe it goes down"
X Link 2025-04-03T12:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Someday if we keep fucking it up Japan opens down Chinese metal opens up China rallies Asia follows Europes up yields are up were up and then down and thats how it ends. US stocks and bonds drift down for years. Rest of world does ok. The show goes on without us"
X Link 2025-04-05T04:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@GavMcCracken I am net short with many open puts"
X Link 2025-04-08T02:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@blondesnmoney I just sold a pile of $TLT at $88.88. Auspicious I think"
X Link 2025-04-08T17:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@TheStalwart @chamath https://x.com/vanillager/status/1908344435697463749 @TheStalwart @chamath Joe. Youre a professional neutral dispassionate journalist. Its incumbent upon you to inform your audience that Chamath and his podcast are utter slop at a far higher frequency than you currently do. Maybe once every ten minutes or so Joe. Journalistic ethics demand this. https://x.com/vanillager/status/1908344435697463749 @TheStalwart @chamath Joe. Youre a professional neutral dispassionate journalist. Its incumbent upon you to inform your audience that Chamath and his podcast are utter slop at a"
X Link 2025-04-08T20:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Completely saved my ass. Up instead of margin called"
X Link 2025-04-09T17:27Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements

"@blondesnmoney It was sized as more of a hedge so Im back to positive YTD but not as positive as I was a week ago. If I hadnt put this on I would have been absolutely annihilated"
X Link 2025-04-09T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ryxcommar @TheStalwart Checks out"
X Link 2025-04-11T01:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@blondesnmoney I think 7K+ is possible. But I am more bearish than most"
X Link 2025-04-12T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SpecialSitsNews This is the key point. I don't think people really get it yet"
X Link 2025-04-13T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarReseach The date of the post is quite important here"
X Link 2025-05-15T03:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@blondesnmoney Be careful. IBKR tax reporting and IRS tax treatment of these contracts is ambiguous. Losses may not be deductible against wins or other income and if that's the case every bet is a loser. Unbelievable that they're still offering these without even trying to clear this up"
X Link 2025-06-25T21:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Good show @tracyalloway @TheStalwart"
X Link 2025-06-27T02:57Z [----] followers, 48.5K engagements

"@taobanker $DNG $TM9 $BBD $AVAL"
X Link 2025-08-23T15:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$PPLT $SLP.L $THS.L $SBSW https://t.co/GijILG3hhP https://t.co/GijILG3hhP"
X Link 2025-09-25T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Down 8% today roughly the hit I took on Liberation Day due to my outsized exposure to miners. Im using a lot of leverage and so this level of volatility is expected. The market will eventually force me to degross. Getting close to that point. Next week may be interesting"
X Link 2025-10-17T22:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DeepDishEnjoyer Tail hedging for retail"
X Link 2025-10-20T06:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Our domestic manufacturing capacity has degraded to the point that were no longer able to produce our own circuit breaker. But maybe we can import one from Asia. South Korea KOSPI [---] hits limit down circuit breaker as concerns over mass retail leverage & a speculative mania grow #MacroEdge South Korea KOSPI [---] hits limit down circuit breaker as concerns over mass retail leverage & a speculative mania grow #MacroEdge"
X Link 2025-11-05T01:52Z [---] followers, 42.1K engagements

"Unfortunate situation with PetroTal $TAL.TO $PTALF. I like the company but I like tax losses more so away it goes. Will reassess at year end"
X Link 2025-11-13T16:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@taobanker https://x.com/vanillager/status/1969529596753162459s=46 https://x.com/vanillager/status/1969529596753162459s=46"
X Link 2025-11-17T16:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@bennpeifert Good on sale: https://www.amazon.com/DeLonghi-Explore-Automatic-Espresso-Machine/dp/B0CGL7878G/ https://www.amazon.com/DeLonghi-Explore-Automatic-Espresso-Machine/dp/B0CGL7878G/"
X Link 2025-11-18T17:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@calvinfroedge Rainbow"
X Link 2025-11-26T21:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@AltayCapital A typical mature Japanese industrial concern has no or low growth but also a pristine (net cash) balance sheet stable free cash flow and increasing shareholder alignment. This thing has bad governance and is burning cash and issuing debt to fund capex for . . . what exactly"
X Link 2025-11-30T00:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@FordWealth Thoughts on the warrants Countercyclical investing is great but the clock is ticking"
X Link 2025-12-05T02:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Theres no way to organize a portfolio into subsets (themes buckets) for independent tracking. Theres no integrated research. Shocking that a $100B company cant replicate and integrate Koyfin or whatever. Info on tradable markets is perpetually wrong (e.g the JSE is flagged as available for trading but its not). Portfolio analysis is far better than peers but should be to improved further. Integration of data from other brokers appears to be completely broken. Weekend downtime is excessive. Some of us do portfolio work on weekends. No margin offered against positions listed on the Toronto"
X Link 2025-12-08T04:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@0xMerridew I thought it was pretty well established that NMN is snake oil and that the Chinese peptides are effective (albeit no data yet on longer-term impacts)"
X Link 2025-12-11T02:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Changed my mind on $WPM sold most of it"
X Link 2025-12-15T15:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Highest-conviction idea for 2026:"
X Link 2025-12-22T03:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@JSE_Invest My sense is that gold is barely within professional allocators' Overton window and that platinum and South Africa are still well outside of it. Sentiment has a long way to go before it catches up to price"
X Link 2025-12-22T17:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$SBSW cc: @calvinfroedge #China's #platinum and #palladium opened at 10% limit-up on Tuesday. $XPT $XPD. Shanghai #silver +3.4% #nickel +3% #gold +2.6% #copper +0.2%. #Aluminum -0.4% #zinc and #tin -0.1%. INE crude oil +2%. #OOTT Guangzhou #lithium carbonate +1.6% poly #silicon -1%. https://t.co/TuNn8WX68j #China's #platinum and #palladium opened at 10% limit-up on Tuesday. $XPT $XPD. Shanghai #silver +3.4% #nickel +3% #gold +2.6% #copper +0.2%. #Aluminum -0.4% #zinc and #tin -0.1%. INE crude oil +2%. #OOTT Guangzhou #lithium carbonate +1.6% poly #silicon -1%. https://t.co/TuNn8WX68j"
X Link 2025-12-23T01:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I'm feeling a sense of deja vu today. I still have no particular interest in commodities. Mining is a bad business and I don't want to own mining companies. But despite this year's runup in metal prices many miners are still too cheap not to own. At current metal prices a typical high-quality junior miner in the precious metals space - there are several dozen of these - has little or no debt and is on track to generate free cash flow in excess of its enterprise value in 3-5 years. And after all this cash is generated the company will still own one or more producing mines typically with ample"
X Link 2025-12-25T19:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I sold the last of my $RMLFF for a small gain yesterday after being in the trade for more than a year. It would be funny if it popped on Monday because it has the appearance of providing Venezuela exposure"
X Link 2026-01-03T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I'm curious about how you got comfortable with $JZR.V JZR Gold. There's no Mineral Resource Estimate and no 43-101 that I can find. I know that this is a tailings project but other tailings projects have these. Refer to Amerigo for example. They first said that the mill was [--] days from full production in October [----]. They've said that production was imminent many times since then. I can't find any evidence of production. Pictures and videos I can find don't show any signs that material has moved through the mill. There's no feed (input) or tailings (output) that I can see. There's no"
X Link 2026-01-04T19:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Had to take a hit on everything listed in Toronto this morning but sold all the following overnight above the highest print on the tape: $XOM $BP $CVX $IMO $SU $CVE $DVN $CNQ $GPRK $TDW. Thanks Mr. Market"
X Link 2026-01-05T15:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@blondesnmoney What about Kazakh banks and US uranium"
X Link 2026-01-05T23:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Thanks for the posts. I didnt know that Gator had a fund that could be brought on IBKR Easy purchase. Do you have a passive equity portfolio in addition to this or is this everything you have allocated to equities Do you have other invested assets (fixed income commodities etc) as well I think Ill eventually go on the direction youve gone but I expect that the active equity sleeve will be a part of a larger portfolio that has both passive equity and representation from other asset classes. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008595530172043721 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008595530172043721"
X Link 2026-01-06T17:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Tintincapital @SowingAlphaSeed $IWM is horrible and cheap and easy to borrow"
X Link 2026-01-07T12:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@lasse108 Risk management. $BAK could be a zero. 10% in any stock is aggressive. 75% in Brazil is dangerous. You should really find other stocks and diversify. I say this knowing all these names bullish Brazil with a huge position in $SBSW and with large positions in $PBR and $BAK"
X Link 2026-01-08T01:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@SowingAlphaSeed @Nicholas_Meyers This is a surprise. What do you think about the potential recurrence of the economic conditions that existed in the 1970s I'm modestly bullish gold in the short term and neutral in the long term. But I think it's a great diversifier and I always expect to hold some"
X Link 2026-01-08T16:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Inspired by @SowingAlphaSeed heres the passive active portfolio that I would run if I were less enthusiastic about active investing and less tolerant of risk. This is less leveraged less concentrated in commodities (and thus more thematically diversified) less tax efficient and generally less over-engineered than what Im actually doing. But it requires no maintenance and still reflects my macro and individual stock preferences reasonably well (on a look-through basis) and thats nice. 15% $AVDV Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF 10% $AAUS Alpha Architect US Equity ETF 10% $QDSIX AQR"
X Link 2026-01-13T04:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@blondesnmoney Iced Tea"
X Link 2026-01-13T20:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@ragingbullcap Great assets but horrendous capital allocation. It was compelling as a longer-term play a year ago but today we are in a bull market and many companies offer better value. I sold all but a token position"
X Link 2026-01-21T22:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ICBarrett @ragingbullcap Its a question of relative value. If metal prices hold there are dozens of miners that will earn their EV back in cash in 1-5 years. They will easily 2x-10x+ from here. There is generational mispricing everywhere. Why roll the dice on Jack when I can buy those miners instead"
X Link 2026-01-21T22:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"After I trimmed miners for the first time in Q4 they simultaneously appreciated due to the run up in metals (giving me margin to deploy) and became more attractive due to multiple compression (giving me ample reason to deploy that margin). I added back more than I trimmed. On valuation alone I should continue to add. But Im already more concentrated than I ever expected to be and my year has already been made. I have to draw a line in the sand. No more buying miners. No more selling miners unless a correction forces my hand. Sitting tight until this thing runs its course."
X Link 2026-01-24T05:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@orrdavid Do you have a view on which of these applies"
X Link 2026-01-25T02:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DeepDishEnjoyer She can. Are you not participating"
X Link 2026-01-26T01:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"First post. Hello FinTwit. In a few hours a Regulatory Affairs Manager from Honeywell will tell a public Nuclear Regulatory Commission meeting that the Metropolis uranium conversion facility is fully staffed and operating 24/7 with full capacity expected within the next few years. Its been publicly reported that Metropolis is already at target capacity of 7000tU and so I dont know how to interpret full capacity in this context as anything other than full nameplate capacity of 15000tU. Im not an expert but my understanding is that a two-year ramp to nameplate would increase global conversion"
X Link 2024-10-30T14:00Z [----] followers, 18K engagements

"Looks like there's a livestream starting in [--] minutes: The Metropolis item is first on the agenda. https://video.nrc.gov/ https://video.nrc.gov/"
X Link 2024-10-30T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The presenter read from the slides and didn't add any color. "Full capacity within the next few years" still sounds to me like ramping uranium conversion to nameplate. Anyone know what's going on here @leggett_john @GavMcCracken @jeffcomeau @Gravedigger_ @UrTokenCorgi #uranium"
X Link 2024-10-30T17:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@leggett_john Really helpful thank you"
X Link 2024-10-30T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ZeeContrarian1 OK yeah so if you did this in March of [----] - waited until the VIX hit [--] or [--] or [--] and then went short the UVXY - you would have lost 300% of your investment. I have no experience trading volatility but this seems like a risky strategy"
X Link 2024-12-26T03:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"To that end heres the long portion of my taxable [----] portfolio. This is diversified enough in a variety of dimensions (100 names) that outperformance should be indicative of skill and underperformance should be indicative of lack of skill. My actual portfolio differs slightly from this. But my actual portfolio performance isnt falsifiable and so my actual portfolio is irrelevant. This model portfolio is a clean test and its how Ill be judging my [----] performance. No cashtags due to Twitter rules. Good luck to everyone in the new year. 7.50% 5.00% PBRA 4.75% BSM 4.25% FRFHF 4.00% EC 3.50% VTI"
X Link 2025-01-02T03:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Aureliusltd28 I've been long the junior prefs since August [----]. Current weight is 10%. All CBO scenarios contemplate JPS redemption at par and so I think the primary risk is delay. I prefer the illiquid $50-par JPS as they trade at a discount to the $25. Commons are in the "too hard" pile"
X Link 2025-01-04T00:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@marissa69904566 I work for a living nothing to do with investing and am a long way from retirement. Its definitely a bit much and I hope to spend much less time on it this year. Im tracking the performance of this fixed portfolio in Koyfin and everything else in Excel. Hope that helps"
X Link 2025-01-22T22:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@NestBetter If the commodities cycle really kicks off I could see the whole thing going. It would probably the last chance hell get to sell at a good price and a sale on his own terms probably produces a better outcome for his family than whatever his successors would do. I am long a lot"
X Link 2025-01-28T03:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The model portfolio in my pinned post with [---] names is up 4.7% YTD through January. Biggest winners: $LTBR $PTLO $GLGDF Biggest losers: $AFMJF $BTU $GRCE Highest CTR: $EC $PBRA $SBSW Lowest CTR: $NVDA $RMLFF $FOA"
X Link 2025-02-03T03:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@FordWealth It can happen because gold demand via central banks is increasing while palladium demand via catalytic converters is stable. But the cure for low commodity prices is low commodity prices. PGM inventories are falling and prices will eventually rise. $SBSW is a way to play this"
X Link 2025-02-07T04:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"For Americans with an interest in gold Costco is selling coins and bars for 0% to 3% over today's increased spot price. There's free shipping and no tax in some states. With a cashback credit card and executive membership you can buy at a discount to spot. Tough to beat"
X Link 2025-02-10T16:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@salr_nyc @bennpeifert https://x.com/agraybee/status/1537869930242113536 Every lifelong Catholic I've ever met is like "I think we're supposed to give this food to poor people" and every adult convert is like "the Archon of Constantinople's epistle on the Pentacostine rites of the eucharist clearly states women shouldn't have driver's licenses." https://x.com/agraybee/status/1537869930242113536 Every lifelong Catholic I've ever met is like "I think we're supposed to give this food to poor people" and every adult convert is like "the Archon of Constantinople's epistle on the Pentacostine rites"
X Link 2025-02-11T22:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Every VIC pitch is "this stock is trading at 12x [----] EBITDA. here's a PhD thesis about how it's a buy because SOTP fair value should be 14x instead". Meanwhile I have an endless list of things I want to buy with no debt and a dividend trading at 10x LTM FCF. I don't get it"
X Link 2025-02-13T01:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I made exactly one submission to VIC. "This company is well run and growing quickly and trading at [--] P/E. Just to be safe here's a complete list of things that could make a bad company in this domain look optically cheap. Here's why none of them apply." Rejected of course"
X Link 2025-02-13T01:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@BuyCheapNPray Great list. I like and hold $MSA $SSRM $APM $THX $EQX $BABA $JD. Used to own $WBD LEAPs on price/hate alone but sold when it went up. $TQQQ and $YINN are LETFs with built-in decay due to volatility drag and so you should dump those ASAP if you don't have a reason to hold"
X Link 2025-02-14T00:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$9435.JP Hikari Tsushin"
X Link 2025-02-14T02:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@YellowLabLife Wow Glad I asked had no idea that they offered access to PH. There are a bunch of cheap names there (including this one) that are low on my to-do list because of the annoyance and cost of dealing with an Asian specialist broker"
X Link 2025-02-17T00:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@HurdlerateUT @hurdle_rate How do you cover your expenses during a drawdown Would this structure create an incentive to increase portfolio volatility as a last-ditch effort to keep the lights on"
X Link 2025-02-19T13:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SFarringtonBKC @theroichannel Welcome to the party. cc: @ragingbullcap @ICBarrett @AlmostMongolian this article is about Jacks gold"
X Link 2025-02-20T02:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Incredibly grim to fire up the search function and read posts from people with no understanding of insurance - who I assume are mostly young men with not a lot of money - talking about investing all of their savings into $LMND. Holy shit this is sad. I did not want to see this"
X Link 2025-02-26T00:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@GavMcCracken The more uranium they leave in the ground now the more uranium will be available to dig up later. Its additional supply. Incredibly bearish"
X Link 2025-02-28T05:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The model portfolio in my pinned post with [---] names is down 1.3% for the month up 3.4% YTD. Biggest winners: $LTBR $BABA $PTLO Biggest losers: $BORR $BTU $NFE Highest CTR: $9435 $EC $SOC Lowest CTR: $URNJ $NFE $FOA Not bad. Have made a lot of changes. May start writing"
X Link 2025-03-03T00:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The company's only asset has been captured by insurgents and the market is letting me get out at -30% Okay I'll take that. $AFM $AFMJF"
X Link 2025-03-13T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FRES Fresnillo is large and well-known but I feel it's under-discussed under-priced and under-owned. Other names that are rarely discussed here: $ARG Amerigo $1258 China Non Ferrous $CAML Central Asia Metals $5TP CNMC Goldmine $MJS Majestic Gold $GMX Globex $DNG Dynacor"
X Link 2025-03-14T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Re: copper I look at $FCX and see a balance sheet I dont want to own. Contrast with $ARG (now a 1.0% position for me at cost) and $CAML (0.6%) which are net cash well run and still dirt cheap"
X Link 2025-03-26T03:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Fresnillo $FRES $FRES.L is still comically cheap. It's net cash. Pays a dividend. [----] FCF/EV was 11% and [----] may be 15% even if silver is flat. Big diversified well-run cost-conscious. Tailwinds from a weak peso and improving ops. Market cap is 5% of $200b reserves"
X Link 2025-03-28T12:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@calvinfroedge I had thought that Muslims and Christians tend to get along just fine in places where they live in proximity. There are geopolitical issues in some places and assimilation issues in others. But I dont think religious differences are the main point of friction in either case"
X Link 2025-03-30T15:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The model portfolio in my pinned post with [---] names is up 4.4% YTD. Biggest winners: $HMY $9070 $MMY Biggest losers: $AFM $NFE $BORR Highest CTR: $9435 $EC $SBSW Lowest CTR: $URNJ $PCT $NFE Actual performance is better up 18.5% YTD"
X Link 2025-03-31T21:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"That wasn't a rhetorical question and I'd sincerely appreciate it if you could tell me more because you're correct in your implication that I haven't spent much time looking at Lemonade. Like to the best of my knowledge in a typical insurance company there might be a couple people working in treasury who are managing liquidity and I guess those people have to pay attention to cash flow in a mechanical way as a component of their job as a housekeeping part of the finance function. But to the best of my knowledge people tend not to look at cash flow when trying to understand the economics of an"
X Link 2025-04-01T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"In insurance growth wins out over underwriting every time and both $IGIC and $FFH just aren't growing fast enough. I sold them. My insurance portfolio now consists of only $LMND a fast-growing insuretech and Unicover Managers a fast-growing broker (private placement)"
X Link 2025-04-01T16:00Z [----] followers, 44.7K engagements

"@GoldForecast Might be easier to digest as an Excel table (names x %upside@$100 increments). Thanks for the perspective"
X Link 2025-04-02T14:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Today was stressful. How many puts do I need to keep on to hedge my 200% leveraged book of African mining companies isnt a question I had to ask myself when all of my money was in index funds. And I make expensive new mistakes every day. Its all still just so much fun"
X Link 2025-04-04T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TheStalwart @chamath Joe. Youre a professional neutral dispassionate journalist. Its incumbent upon you to inform your audience that Chamath and his podcast are utter slop at a far higher frequency than you currently do. Maybe once every ten minutes or so Joe. Journalistic ethics demand this"
X Link 2025-04-05T02:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"No investment is absolutely safe but if you told me that a new Great Depression was starting tomorrow there's not much I'd want to own more than a well-run property/casualty insurance company. I like $IGIC and $FFH. Other big safe names include $WRB and $CB. In insurance growth wins out over underwriting every time and both $IGIC and $FFH just aren't growing fast enough. I sold them. My insurance portfolio now consists of only $LMND a fast-growing insuretech and Unicover Managers a fast-growing broker (private placement). In insurance growth wins out over underwriting every time and both"
X Link 2025-04-06T12:57Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements

"@searching4value Unexpected inflation will create a one-time earnings hit. The earnings hit will be lower for commercial insurers (all four names mentioned) as they can raise rates with minimal regulatory interference and for insurers with ex-US exposure. Note that $IGIC is mostly ex-US"
X Link 2025-04-06T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Long-Form Summary of Where I Stand I started the year using modest leverage hedging the portfolio only with rolling deep out-of-the-money SPX puts and a smattering of single-stock shorts (serious mistake). This didnt work in the February selloff and in late February I opened very large short positions (90% of liquidation value) on $IWM and a handful of other defective ETFs to bring me to what I thought was roughly market neutral positioning. This worked well in March as I won on both the long and the short side. I bought 0dte SPX puts on Liberation day but failed to roll them to Thursday when"
X Link 2025-04-06T19:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@value_invest12 https://x.com/standuquesne/status/1908896575025271171 @markminervini I do not support tariffs exceeding 10% which I made abundantly clear in the interview you cite https://x.com/standuquesne/status/1908896575025271171 @markminervini I do not support tariffs exceeding 10% which I made abundantly clear in the interview you cite"
X Link 2025-04-06T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Ive seen all of the following varieties of cope-posting over the weekend and this morning: Art of the Deal - Trump is negotiating and tariffs will be dropped in exchange for concessions Feels Your Pain - Market movements will soon force Trump to tone the tariffs down Subversive Elements - Trumps heart is in the right place but hes being temporarily misled Dip Buyer - Every past dip of this size has been a buy and so this one probably is too Low Sample Size - Even major historic crashes didnt get much worse recovered etc. Blind Contrarian - Everyone else is bearish and so of course consensus"
X Link 2025-04-07T12:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The most unbelievable thing about all of this is that we haven't had a circuit breaker yet. Who is buying Why"
X Link 2025-04-07T15:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Incredible that the market is allowing me to sell at Friday prices. Using this opportunity to deleverage somewhat (staying net short) like I should have done in the first place"
X Link 2025-04-08T12:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Ive seen how people whove been bearish for years (Im not one of those people) have been wrong for that reason. But this time theres an imminent crisis. There will be layoffs failures defaults etc. Many of people you reference will be forced sellers"
X Link 2025-04-08T12:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"It feels ridiculous to sell cheap companies to buy expensive index puts. But I don't see a better bet out there and so I'm going to keep doing it. At this rate I'll incinerate 3% of my liquidity on put-buying by Friday. If we're not down this week I'm wrong and will tap out"
X Link 2025-04-08T16:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DeepDishEnjoyer Was it a hedge I bet and lost a large fraction of that but it was a hedge and the hedge worked and it was fine. Except maybe for the tax treatment. Still need to figure that out"
X Link 2025-04-08T20:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@PaulAndreola From the presidents perspective neither of these people are doing anything wrong. It may be Bessent"
X Link 2025-04-08T23:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I bought 0dte SPX 5300ish calls this morning. Not because I think the market will go up today (just the opposite) but because volatility is cheap. And because my bets against equities and bonds are now so large that I risk getting blown out by a surprise reversal from Trump"
X Link 2025-04-09T12:40Z [----] followers, 115.8K engagements

"Also buying more breaker-level 0dte puts obviously"
X Link 2025-04-09T13:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I don't know what odds I should be getting on a bet that the S&P hits three breakers and closes for the day but it shouldn't be 600:1. Who is selling me this stuff"
X Link 2025-04-09T13:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This was probably the single best set of trades I will make in my life. Bought options this morning for $25 and sold them this afternoon for $5000. Incredible. I have no idea why anyone would sell me these"
X Link 2025-04-09T17:37Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements

"Several hundred people followed me today after I made this post about how I bought very short term and very out of the money call options in the morning and those options ended up paying off in the afternoon. Some people asked for tips. As it turns out I have a lot of tips Read on First your awareness of this post is an example of survivorship bias (ChatGPT or Wikipedia this term). What if Id posted about something stupid instead or something that didnt work out Well I might have deleted it. For example about five minutes before the tariffs were suspended I made a post about how the tariffs"
X Link 2025-04-09T21:59Z [----] followers, 16.3K engagements

"@kevg1412 The typical reaction to hearing something like that would be to ask for the name of the book. So did you: [--]. Not ask [--]. Ask and not get a response [--]. Ask get a response and - knowing that others would also want the name of the book - consciously choose not to share it"
X Link 2025-04-11T17:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@kevg1412 In other words what kind of a man are you"
X Link 2025-04-11T17:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"An update on the gold miners I own and their rough weights within the basket. Hoping to be pencils down after adding this week. I'm an amateur/tourist in the space mostly selecting for high FCF/EV. @DonDurrett @GoldForecast focus on this sector and seem to have real expertise"
X Link 2025-04-13T01:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@DonDurrett @GoldForecast That's just gold. Here's silver. (Of course the classification can be fuzzy.) Gold allocation is roughly 2.5x silver. At current prices and production Fresnillo seems extremely cheap to me and Andean is also attractive. Other miners less so. But I do need to make a new pass"
X Link 2025-04-13T02:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The United States of America is abandoning free-market capitalism in favor of a mixed economy. And you're bullish"
X Link 2025-04-14T01:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$FNMAS had a small spike at the open before this post. Matches the pattern of "inside - outside - everyone" market-moving news cascades that we've seen in this administration. This would also provide an explanation for Ackman's recent behavior. I'm already long bought more. News on Fannie Mae coming shortly News on Fannie Mae coming shortly"
X Link 2025-04-14T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TheZvi Still the worst naming scheme of any consumer product in history"
X Link 2025-04-14T22:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@DeepDishEnjoyer The ratio of outstanding media to slop was an order of magnitude higher in the 1990s than it is today. This was an incredible collaboration between a world-class band and a world-class animator and it was just another thing you might randomly see on MTV. Peak of civilization"
X Link 2025-04-15T03:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"My portfolio has stabilized and I have other stuff to do. Using this opportunity to take an indefinite break from active investing and Twitter. Filing my 13F before I go as required. My guess is that we drift sideways or down from here and I'm hedged for that but who knows"
X Link 2025-04-16T13:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Finance (17.2%) - IGIC was my largest position from February [----] until December [----]. I had to diversify a bit but plan on holding what I still have forever. Ditto Fairfax. My top four holdings are popular around here and there are writeups. Japan (13.4%) - There are hundreds of cheap Japanese small caps and after one pass through the Japan Company Handbook I decided that curating portfolio of [---] different names was not a good use of my time. Easier to buy Hikari Tsushin and Militia which function as Japanese small-cap ETFs. Other Industrial (5.1%) - Some of these could conceivably get"
X Link 2025-04-16T13:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@calvinfroedge What books on the period would you recommend most"
X Link 2025-04-21T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This bet - that $BRK.B would acquire $CB - didn't work. I figured that the odds of an acquisition announcement during the annual meeting were roughly 10:1 against and the market was giving me roughly 50:1 against on short-dated near-the-money calls. "Roughly" is doing a lot of work here - these odds had very wide confidence intervals - but I had some degree of confidence in both my assessment and in my edge over the market. In any case I put about 2% of my liquid net worth at risk which is a fraction of Kelly at the quoted odds but still a substantial bet given how I typically manage risk. I"
X Link 2025-05-10T01:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Long note on taxes (only relevant for Americans) - I like what I own. My long portfolio is roughly 99% unchanged over the past four weeks and my performance over the same period is roughly flat. But I have a diversified portfolio and the market has been moving a lot which means that I have a lot of winners and a lot of losers. The losers can be sold to generate tax-reducing realized losses but like I said I like what I own and wash sale rules unfortunately prevent me from selling the losers to take the loss and immediately rebuying them. But there are several examples of assets in my"
X Link 2025-05-10T03:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SowingAlphaSeed [----] Fannie and Freddie prefs Fresnillo FFH IGIC. All started smaller"
X Link 2025-07-01T00:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"My portfolio has changed little since the post quoted below. Oil gas coal tankers chemicals and shorts haven't worked. But everything else did. These results aren't statistically significant. Even though my portfolio is diversified in terms of names and geographies this sample is still concentrated across themes a relatively tight observation window and other correlative dimensions. Given that it would be difficult to say that these results are due to skill. I still have no idea whether or not I'm any good at this and that's still a bit frustrating. Thankfully it feels like diminishing"
X Link 2025-07-01T12:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ReturnsJourney This entity is affiliated with the Zambian government. I never fully unpacked it but I remember that neither the income statement nor the balance sheet reflect the real economics that you would be participating in as an investor"
X Link 2025-07-01T14:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@calvinfroedge Which non-productive assets (metals agricultural commodities petrochemicals fiat currencies cryptocurrencies raw land etc.) do you think are best positioned to resist inflation My top ten are platinum silver gold copper natural gas oil tin francs bitcoin uranium"
X Link 2025-07-04T02:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Fresnillo $FRES $FRES.L is up 140% year to date and 55% since I made this post purchased shares and stopped paying attention to it. It's grown into my third-largest position and I just now spent [--] minutes taking another look at it. Despite the price appreciation it's still comically cheap. [----] FCF/EV should be comfortably in the double digits even at the current share price and it comes with a clean balance sheet a healthy dividend and free embedded options on the prices of gold and silver. It's the world's largest silver producer and is de-risked across a number of important dimensions."
X Link 2025-07-06T04:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@NestBetter The entire Georgian/Uzbek/Kazakh banking complex is cheap and many here have written about it - $TBCG $BGEO $CGEO $KSPI $HSBK"
X Link 2025-09-20T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@wallstcass I own some but have been hesitant to ramp up further due to having a lot of other Kazakh exposure - $HSBK $KSPI $YCA.L etc. Maybe I need to rethink that given the improvement in the value proposition. Thanks"
X Link 2025-10-09T12:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@wallstcass $HSBK in particular still looks like an incredible bargain. The only reason I havent backed up the truck even at todays prices is concentration"
X Link 2025-10-09T12:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@PauzaWowza @calvinfroedge $HSBK. Not so good today"
X Link 2025-10-17T18:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@taobanker Only through $HSBK. Theres unfortunately very little that is easily accessible to US investors"
X Link 2025-11-17T16:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@taobanker I still like $HSBK"
X Link 2025-11-17T16:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I don't average losers. The exception is $AIXI a picocap VIE awaiting a Chinese court's judgment on an IP dispute with Apple. The entire thesis is that an Apple loss may further the interests of the CCP. There's been no news for over a year. But the thesis continues to improve. China Condemns U.S. Patent Rule Changes Vows Action China's Ministry of Commerce criticized recent U.S. revisions to patent invalidation rules under the pretext of "national security" calling them a violation of international IP obligations and discriminatory against China Condemns U.S. Patent Rule Changes Vows Action"
X Link 2025-11-18T22:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I cut Fresnillo $FRES $FRES.L by 40% and total exposure to gold and silver miners by about 20%. The miners are still compelling but I'm using a lot of leverage and increasing portfolio concentration and correlation to the underlying metal price are becoming an issue. Fresnillo $FRES $FRES.L is up 140% year to date and 55% since I made this post purchased shares and stopped paying attention to it. It's grown into my third-largest position and I just now spent [--] minutes taking another look at it. Despite the price appreciation it's Fresnillo $FRES $FRES.L is up 140% year to date and 55% since"
X Link 2025-12-09T13:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@calbotster Trim $SBSW add to $SLP $THS. Trim $ARG add to $KGH. Trim $FRES $APM $SCZ $NEXA add to other silver juniors. Exit $URNJ for $SRUUF and cash. Trim $EC for cash"
X Link 2026-01-13T01:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Looked through US large caps today. Lots of boring businesses trading at record-dumb multiples. Typically I ignore these ignore the whole market point the screener elsewhere. Today I shorted a bunch of these stocks instead. Felt good. Felt right. Might do it again tomorrow"
X Link 2026-02-04T06:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"To be clear Im still very short US markets via ETFs like $VTWG and $QYLD and to a lesser extent $VTWV and other Russell [----] and income ETFs"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Big beat by $B Its gonna be a great day"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@calvinfroedge If they're in the market I suggest $NRP $TGA.L $YAL.AX"
X Link 2025-12-12T18:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"When open positions demand too much (any) of my attention I sell them. On that basis I sold most of my oil names tonight. It was nice of the market to make it easy. I may have traded more overnight tonight than in all of [----]. Keeping $BSM $EC $PBR.A $TAL.TO and little else"
X Link 2026-01-05T04:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@realZacRepinski @calvinfroedge Lima is not cleaner or more well kept than any major city in the US at all let alone the majority of them"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Retail investors yearn for the mines"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Big beat by $B Its gonna be a great day"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Looked through US large caps today. Lots of boring businesses trading at record-dumb multiples. Typically I ignore these ignore the whole market point the screener elsewhere. Today I shorted a bunch of these stocks instead. Felt good. Felt right. Might do it again tomorrow"
X Link 2026-02-04T06:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Up 23% YTD. Also in a 15% drawdown. I was forced to deleverage (note: using leverage is stupid dont do it) in April and it was stressful. Happened again in October. Less stressful. Today I put in sell orders over coffee and went about my day. The fun continues on Monday"
X Link 2026-01-30T23:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Got through Monday close to flat. Nice"
X Link 2026-02-03T05:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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