@toy59496 Robin Dods

Robin Dods posts on X about $myxax, in the, $bslax, $qubax the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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[--] Week [------] +110%
[--] Month [------] -14%
[--] Months [-------] +961%

Mentions: [--] #

[--] Month [--] -58%
[--] Months [---] +321%

Followers: [-----] #

[--] Week [-----] +2.90%
[--] Month [-----] +10%
[--] Months [-----] +463%

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 39.13% cryptocurrencies 4.35% stocks 4.35% currencies 3.62% countries 2.17% exchanges 0.72% travel destinations 0.72% technology brands 0.72%

Social topic influence $myxax #1, in the 9.42%, $bslax 6.52%, $qubax #25, company 6.52%, money 6.52%, $stoax 5.07%, if you 5.07%, $bsaax #1, market 5.07%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @puppyeh1 @fabreres @bowtiedstocks @derekfranc90653 @longhorncapital @mathan_soma @littletreescap @nrossett @mondyinvest @danielraihani @comlbr24 @tze_c @deltaandflow @nobody_but_m3 @mathansoma @geoffwilsonwam @ideslenny @mattmichaelog @harvestlaneams @ausnotes

Top assets mentioned Banksocial (BSL) Snow Lake Resources Ltd. (LITM) MYX Finance (MYX)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$STO.AX : Bargain Hunters For those that do buy and hold the unwinding of STO today may represent an opportunity. Estimate of pre-bid price is $6.95. Some of those arbitrageurs are going to unwind as many of them have a policy of immediately exiting on a deal break which is a very sensible policy on their part because otherwise there is a psychological bias in holding on and converting yourself from an arbitrage fund to a long fund which is not the deal under the client arrangement. That can act in a favour as a retail investor. Generally something with high liquidity might revert back to its"
X Link 2025-09-17T23:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$STO.AX : Autopsy Interesting article from James Thompson at the AFR. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain why the Santos board did not want to obtain scheme approval prior to the Treasurer making a judgement I assume it's about the cost involved in going through the scheme process but really this seems to be the general process with most acquisitions that the FIRB approval is down the track and not upfront. Was the board being unreasonable https://www.afr.com//chanticleer/will-the-doom-loop-that-killed-the-santos-deal-strike-again-20250918-p5mw78btis"
X Link 2025-09-18T08:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$BSL.AX & $WDS.AX I was running with a pretty good profit margin on these but now they have suddenly turned to crap. I thought $BSL had some protection against US tariffs while $WDS appears to be getting approvals eg North West Shelf. If I exit I will crystallise a significant loss. I see the descent of $BSL is particularly acute. Transient vs Permanent https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1977885391337517510 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1977885391337517510"
X Link 2025-10-13T23:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$AUB.AX : Valuation Excess returns model comes up with a valuation of $42 per share but the assumptions are always a bit fuzzy. I guess with a control premium you can argue $45 per share is not unreasonable. It's cheaper then $SDF.AX Also looking at the exchange rate the Australian dollar is a bargain relative to the Swedish krona at the moment. So this is obviously opportunistic. That's good because it means in their native currency they actually getting a 15% discount relative to a little while ago. They could hedge against currency risk if they enter an agreement. Notice $SDF jumped today"
X Link 2025-10-28T09:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$QUB.AX : Arbitrage It's rather a bad time for me to be taking a break from arbitrage with all these opportunities coming up. Offer price is $5.20 and current price is $4.80 NBIO. It's an interesting situation because Brookfields has somehow been gazzumped by Macquarie Capital. There may be litigation. With my new FIRB lenses I note that this is a logistics company which is important in the import export supply chain. If it was an international acquirer I would not touch it with Mr Chalmers in charge but Macquarie Capital is homegrown. Of course it gets complicated if Brookfield manages to"
X Link 2025-11-24T03:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$QUB.AX : Break Price S&P making noises about the credit worthiness of $QUB which you should factor in as it suggests the break price is lower than the prevailing price prior to the announced takeover. Add that to the risk of litigation by Brookfield and the FIRB risk should they prevail you would want to steep discount to offer to make it worth your trouble. I do not hold because I am on an arbitrage break while I educate myself on the FIRB. https://x.com/toy59496/status/1992798813590110375s=20 $QUB.AX : Arbitrage It's rather a bad time for me to be taking a break from arbitrage with all"
X Link 2025-11-24T22:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$QUB.AX : UniSuper Why is a superannuation fund getting involved in an arbitrage I bet that doesn't meet the APRA performance test"
X Link 2025-11-28T05:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Arbitrage Breaks: To Sell or Not Should you sell immediately when a deal breaks in an arbitrage Most professionals have a policy on what to do on a deal break and you should have one as well. Let's consider four recent arbitrage deal breaks: $MYX.AX $AUB.AX $STO.AX and $ASK.AX that did not proceed for different reasons and consider whether you should sell immediately on a break or should wait until sometime afterwards when the dust settles. There are a number of factors to consider when estimating the break level: [--]. The control premium that had been offered above the undisturbed baseline"
X Link 2025-12-05T08:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$QUB.AX : Heat Map Tornado Monte Carlo UniSuper. I've been looking at this arbitrage again and constructed a heat map tornado diagram and a Monte Carlo simulation. At first glance this looks very attractive with a yield of about 12% and a per annum yield of 24%. However the downside is indeterminate and maybe circa 22%. If you assess a probability of closure of 80% you get an expected value of return of only 5% or 10% per annum. The problem with this arbitrage is that $QUB is a logistics company and there may be ACCC problems. FIRB is less likely to be relevant as MAM is a local acquirer."
X Link 2025-12-08T22:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BSL.AX : Arbitrage All I will say is a one and a half percent yield with an NBIO with dubious funding arrangements and a hyperactive FIRB is just a non-starter for me. Also it was prematurely broken by the media and then an announcement by $SGH.AX to try and give momentum. You would only invest for the optionality of an improved price. By my reckoning I estimate that the price needs to substantially improve beyond what is currently offered as $BSL have invested significant capital which should result in value to equity over the next few years. I would not vote to sell out at that price. Much"
X Link 2026-01-06T05:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"And after doing some due diligence on $MIN.AX I should add. It's often the way that a bad news story puts pricing pressure on a stock without fundamentally affecting the business. The trick is to differentiate this sort of bad news story with a bad news story that is in fact very bad news. It's like a reverse catalyst for entry before reversion to the mean. Possible to pick these up while exploring 52-week lows. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008434343254126637 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008434343254126637"
X Link 2026-01-06T07:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$QUB.AX : Arbitrage Update Returning to this one- MAM should complete due diligence in a month. Break $4.00. Offer $5.20. Current $4.825. Implied probability of completion based on price is 69%. Yield Upside 7.7% Downside 17%. No per annum as no timetable for closure. ACCC issues with vertical integration with some existing assets may require undertakings or disposals. I think that's very likely. Heat map and Tornado. NBIO = avoid for some arbitrageurs including me especially given ACCC regulatory prism. But it's a solid margin should it complete. UniSuper certainly thinks it will complete as"
X Link 2026-01-07T03:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$GUE.AX : Money for Jam This is a very interesting one with a 33% yield in a month with thanks to @LittleTreesCap for bringing it to my attention. It's a niche opportunity as the deal is too complex for retail investors to quickly understand and too small for significant funds to devote the time and energy. The deal is that $GUE.AX is being bought out by $LITM on the Nasdaq so it's scrip for scrip. Instead of having a fixed ratio there is a variable ratio to make an equivalence of AUD$0.098. That is the part that usually throws people but is actually much more advantageous for $GUE holders as"
X Link 2026-01-07T04:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$BSL.AX : Rejection & Valuation ASX release below: the Board is right to rapidly reject this low ball offer. It's worth pointing out that $BSL.AX was trading markedly below it's intrinsic value prior to the offer. In fact after the Trump Tariffs in April [----] I did an analysis of what stocks were likely to benefit from protection and two came up strongly $BSL.AX and $ORA.AX. Both are up 50% since that time. I used AI to assist that search. The dissonance between price and value with $BSL.AX was also identified almost a year ago by Rohan Gallagher of Jarden Australia who kindly shared his"
X Link 2026-01-07T10:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BSL.AX : Arbitrage I have been crunching the numbers on this for the last [--] hours. I agree with Jeremy's calculations below. It's not a straightforward valuation. I actually think the deal makes sense in dividing off the legacy Australian steel making assets to SGH who like the regular income while Steel Dynamics could rapidly integrate the North American electric arc furnace (EAF) assets into its own business. It also makes sense financial because BlueScope typically trades at 4.0x - 5.5x EV/EBITDA as it is dragged down by exposure to low-growth Australian manufacturing and Asian commodity"
X Link 2026-01-09T12:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$HUM.AX $BSL.AX $RIO.AX : AFR Article on M&A and Disclosure Sustained pressure on $HUM board at end of article @puppyeh1 https://www.afr.com//companies/financial-services/big-m-and-a-deals-put-sensitive-topic-of-disclosure-back-on-agenda-20260110-p5nt2tbtis https://www.afr.com//companies/financial-services/big-m-and-a-deals-put-sensitive-topic-of-disclosure-back-on-agenda-20260110-p5nt2tbtis"
X Link 2026-01-11T17:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BSL.AX : Arbitrage This seems to be working well. https://x.com/puppyeh1/status/2010280207727698154s=20 Anti trust enforcement is ultimately a political decision. I believe its highly impossibly unlikely that a Trump administration has any kind of problem with a US co acquiring US domiciled assets from an Australian co (whether $BSL.AX or $SGH.AX). Trump loves the outcome of this https://x.com/puppyeh1/status/2010280207727698154s=20 Anti trust enforcement is ultimately a political decision. I believe its highly impossibly unlikely that a Trump administration has any kind of problem with a US"
X Link 2026-01-15T03:24Z [---] followers, 11.3K engagements

"$BSL.AX : Underlying Value A reminder that if something seems cheap often it is and the market simply needs time to recognise that value. The market is inefficient sometimes. Over 30% in four months for those that held. Always important to do your own valuation. https://x.com/toy59496/status/1977885391337517510s=20 $BSL.AX & $WDS.AX I was running with a pretty good profit margin on these but now they have suddenly turned to crap. I thought $BSL had some protection against US tariffs while $WDS appears to be getting approvals eg North West Shelf. If I exit I will crystallise a"
X Link 2026-01-15T03:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$BSL.AX : Credit Based Equity Valuation / Arbitrage Jeremy got me sufficient troubled that I went and did a credit based equity valuation and sure enough I come up with $26 per share with $17.60 for the US business and $8.40 for the Oceania/Asia Business. So I agree that the bidding war is at prices that are not a base case but require higher EV/EBITDA multiples. I routinely do valuations on arbitrages now as I think it is an alternative estimate of break price than simply the pre offer price. I should add that if I use $BSL management's adventurous valuation for the land ($2.8B) and a higher"
X Link 2026-01-16T06:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"For those who want to read the relevant section for small orders up to [------] $GUE shares see s3.5 of the SID. You simply nominate via Automic. Easy. So you have a large spread a sell facility for up to [------] $GUE shares and if you are really worried you can get borrow to short. Keep in mind the conversion ratio now fixed (a collar arbitrage) so you can lose on the short if $LITM suddenly shoots up in value. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014578477291471227 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014578477291471227"
X Link 2026-01-23T05:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Buffett would not invest as an NBIO and in his partnership days half the profit came from arbitrage. Large market cap of more interest to the institutions and less likely to be mispriced. Long list in that graveyard $AUB as well. I bet $QUB will join soon. I only invest in binding deals now and even that's not protection as they can push the FIRB kill button if they change their mind given the legislation does not give enforcement powers unlike CFIUS eg $MYX. Small Cap safer at the moment. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015235385190953067 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015235385190953067"
X Link 2026-01-25T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$QUB.AX : Due Diligence We saw this with $AUB/EQT Hope is not a plan"
X Link 2026-01-28T22:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DerekFranc90653 @puppyeh1 Yes. I like your plan. Most of my big money from purchasing at transient inefficiencies eg $MIN.AX"
X Link 2026-01-31T08:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BSL.AX : Good Exit Timing That was good timing. The man must have a "spidey sense". https://x.com/puppyeh1/status/2017016364763066554s=20 sometimes you just have to punt out of stuff.like $BSL.AX. Sold all my shares last cpl days.why - been dragging quite a bit vs orig offer no real reason to delay imo and thesis predicated on real overbid from $SGH.AX - stock is up (adj for div $31.5 vs low $29s entry) https://x.com/puppyeh1/status/2017016364763066554s=20 sometimes you just have to punt out of stuff.like $BSL.AX. Sold all my shares last cpl days.why - been dragging quite a bit vs orig offer"
X Link 2026-02-02T04:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$QUB.AX : Arbitrage I was a bit cynical on this one but it seems they are very serious based on reports in the AFR that they are organising debt. It's currently sitting on about a 9% yield which I have to say is pretty shallow for an NBIO irrespective that it's MAM and they are digging up debt. https://www.afr.com//street-talk/macquarie-asset-management-readies-5b-plus-debt-package-for-qube-bid-20260204-p5nzn1btis https://www.afr.com//street-talk/macquarie-asset-management-readies-5b-plus-debt-package-for-qube-bid-20260204-p5nzn1btis"
X Link 2026-02-04T07:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$IFL.AX : Arbitrage Update I invested in this last year at the announcement so am already 13% up given the prevailing price. However @bowtiedstocks reminded me that I haven't looked at it for some time because it does seem to be taking a long time to close. This little review will look at the risks preventing closure which is where you should always start with an arbitrage. My conclusion is that the acquisition of Insignia Financial appears to be taking so long due to a perfect storm of regulatory operational and competitive factors. [--]. SID - in many respects this is an NBIO despite a binding"
X Link 2026-02-07T00:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$HUM.AX : EGM For those interested in shareholder activism you should buy $500 of this company and come along and throw your pom poms for @puppyeh1 10am Thursday [--] February [----] at 10:00 am (Sydney time) at Thomson Geer Level [--] [--] Martin Place Sydney. A couple of things to know if you are voting in person on the day and the votes aren't in your own name you need to organise a proxy [--] hours beforehand. You can come in as someone's guest even without shareholdings but you can't vote ask questions or move motions. Obviously it's better just to vote online [--] hours beforehand. Robin will be"
X Link 2026-02-07T09:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$WEB.AX : Anchoring A very compelling investment thesis by Big J. Often it is behavioural psychology that allows you to make money when others panic and you keep calm. However I would say that the thesis is based on anchoring to the pre-audit price. It would be good to consider an EV/EBITDA multiple for an exit as well (say 8) and to confirm that the company is in fact cheap at the current levels. I will sit and do that when I get a chance just crunching numbers on something else at the moment. https://x.com/i/status/2020657570260951331 https://x.com/i/status/2020657570260951331 NEW event"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$BSA.AX : Standard Playbook As indicated [--] months ago the entry of Mr Daniel Raihani is the "catalyst" for this company and he has now been appointed Chairman. He is following his standard playbook of taking large stakes in micro cap companies getting on the board becoming Chairman (eg $MDI.AX $FAU.AX $VSR.AX) repackaging the company and exiting with a tidy profit. Also present with not much in the way of equity is Piers Lewis. Who is he Well he's the chairman on Aurumin where Mr Raihani is a director. It is difficult to imagine that they are not coordinating and if so I hope that they are"
X Link 2026-02-09T11:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BSA.AX : Standard Profit Playbook As indicated [--] months ago the entry of Mr Daniel Raihani is the "catalyst" for this company and he has now been appointed Chairman. He is following his standard playbook of taking large stakes in micro cap companies getting on the board becoming Chairman (eg $MDI.AX $FAU.AX $VSR.AX) repackaging the company and exiting with a tidy profit preferably with the company being acquired (eg $AUN.AX). Also present with not much in the way of equity is Piers Lewis. Who is he Well he's the former chairman on Aurumin ($AUN.AX) where Mr Raihani was a director prior to it"
X Link 2026-02-09T11:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Requesting shareholder registry Has anyone done this previously My understanding is that you need to place a request to the secretary of the company and they may require you to have a statutory declaration. Those that have done so have you typically gone through a lawyer ======== Your name Your address Email address Phone number Date The Company Secretary Company Name Limited (ASX: Ticker) Registered office address or email RE: REQUEST FOR COPY OF REGISTER OF MEMBERS SECTION [---] CORPORATIONS ACT [----] (CTH) I am a member of Company Name Limited (Company). Pursuant to section [---] of the"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Yes I think he has established an interesting method to make money by following this process: he's essentially an activist investor in microcaps. And he does it very well. It's hard to know as a minority investor whether to approve of the restructuring in the interests of equity or be concerned about some of the potential governance challenges that seek to consolidate ownership in major shareholders. I think mostly I approve. If you go back in time $BSA prior to his arrival had some very questionable management centric contracts whereby if the CEOs were fired they still got all the benefits."
X Link 2026-02-09T22:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I think you need to establish intent. I'm not making any claim of market manipulation because I don't want to get sued for defamation by Australia's pathetic defamation laws. I will simply say that the low liquidity means that any substantive or even not very substantive purchase will disturb the share price and bring it into range of the tranches which actually have not been approved yet. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021064325369299066 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021064325369299066"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The Human Catalyst: Daniel Raihani Regular readers will remember that I noted this fellow is quite interesting and that he may catalyse a significant improvement in $BSA.AX when he entered in a big way and so he has and rather quickly. Having a look at his other plays we see him exiting out of $FAU.AX and it represents an interesting overview of his method. Based on his entry in [----] and his gradual exit now it looks like an eight bagger but that's not including the typical playbook of performance rights which I don't begrudge him given there is a performance Maybe like with Buffett you just"
X Link 2026-02-11T05:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mathan_Soma @nrossett I plot all through here- are you saying they are correlated because global flows use CBA and BHP as a proxy for $AUD"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I've read a great deal about him. One of the secrets of Singapore's success is the "Minister Mentor" concept; the idea that the Prime Minister of the day has his predecessor to consult to improve decision making. Deng Xiaoping looked at Singapore as a model when China opened up to the world. But it may have never happened as Lee Kwan Yew wanted to be part of Malaysia but Malaysia took one look at him realised he was incredibly accomplished and decided that he was going to the PM one day and decided they would rather not have that outcome. A classic video of that time showed him in tears when"
X Link 2026-02-12T07:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@GeoffWilsonWAM Geoff- even those of us who weren't affected (yet) were terrified by the tax on unrealised gains. You let that happen in super and soon it's part of the regular tax system. What are you going to turn your attention to now Geoff"
X Link 2025-10-13T20:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Takeover Panel / NBIO Salisbury Plant To explain what went on today. The Takeover Panel has various powers under s657D of the Corporations Act to make various orders if it determines there has been "unacceptable circumstances" Those powers do include extending the termination date of the SID past the [--] Nov directing that MYX be allowed to engage with the FIRB or any other direction to the relevant parties that it thinks is appropriate. However it cannot force the FIRB or Treasurer to approve the deal. This is a very interesting development because it has the potential to result in"
X Link 2025-11-06T10:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@mondyinvest Of course they did.people have seen my reviews of $DRO.AX previously. Clearly they realise it's not sustainable"
X Link 2025-11-12T21:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The Human Catalyst: Daniel Raihani Regular readers will remember that I noted this fellow is quite interesting and that he may catalyse a significant improvement in $BSA.AX when he entered in a big way and so he has and rather quickly. Having a look at his other plays we see him exiting out of $FAU.AX and it represents an interesting overview of his method. Based on his entry in [----] and his gradual exit now it looks like an eight bagger but that's not including the typical playbook of performance rights and director fees which multiply his returns relative to the average punter. I don't"
X Link 2026-02-11T06:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Israeli Stock Index (Top [--] TA35) Hmmmm. Now that's impressive performance in just one year. Mostly due to the banks and a favourable Shekel exchange rate relative to USD. And not just inflation as CPI at about 2.5%. I find it somewhat troubling that all I needed to do was buy an ETF for the TA-35 index and not think so hard to try and get that 70% return (including the FX tailwind if investing AUD) How to do it Tachlit TA-35 ETF (listed in Israel) or iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS listed US) and an IKBR account. Obviously that is a Soros-like macroeconomic play."
X Link 2026-02-14T08:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Liberal Party & Airline Pilots When you catch your aeroplane you want the most competent person at the front on the controls. You don't care where they came from their are other choices in life in fact any demographic information whatsoever. It's all about competence. Arguably flying the country is even more important. Who you are doesn't matter. What matters is your competence. And that's all that matters. I considered this reading the following snippet from the AFR today"
X Link 2026-02-15T00:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$EOS.AX : Grizzly Report v $EOS So I have now read the grizzly report and the spirited defence by $EOS and I think they are both mostly right. I don't think there is any intent to mislead and manipulate the market by $EOS. However there is no doubt that the Korean contract is a pretty wobbly construct and in terms of any upward optionality on share price should probably be factored downwards. As previously stated I actually quite like the technology of this company lasers are the future in sovereign defence but at the prevailing price you are paying for a story and not based on any reasonable"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ideslenny $ATC.AX : that's a weird one- appointed CEO and to the board but has no equity at all. Not the normal playbook. Major shareholder German group"
X Link 2026-02-11T09:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Definitely need to fight that one. Don't forget s236 corporations act allows statutory derivative action which allows you to stand in directly if directors of a company clearly breaching their duty to all shareholders. Geminder related to Pratt family tough eggs. David Rayment SC a good choice for an expert opinion and has litigated these sorts of matters previously. https://www.afr.com//companies/manufacturing/raph-geminder-s-pact-in-settlement-talks-over-30m-earn-out-dispute-20251209-p5nm6mbtis"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@mattmichaelOG I find myself saying exactly the same thing in the mirror each morning. Anybody not comparing their returns with the S&P [---] over the last [--] years where there is a readily available ETF and little in the way of transaction costs and tax drag is kidding themselves"
X Link 2026-02-14T00:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$ELS.AX : Fidelity I see Fidelity has significantly reduced their holdings in $ELS and sold at a substantial loss. They seem to have masterly purchased at the peak and sold at the trough. It's nice to see that this happens to the professionals as well. I thought this company had significant prospects because of clearly superior technology and a hyperactive CEO but it has not behaved in that fashion at least not in the short term. But the future is out there. I only ever had a tracking hold. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985640539086106941"
X Link 2025-11-04T09:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Memory Chip Shortage Lots of bleating about memory chip shortage in the news. The top memory manufacturers are Samsung Electronics SK Hynix and Micron Technology. All of them have gone asymptomatic. SK Hynix least of all. Funny thing about Samsung has been sitting there in plain site for years. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018791825553916068 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018791825553916068"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@puppyeh1 I third BDO Talk to Chris BALALOVSKI who can refer you to the right people. I've had a bit to do with him very good. Often in AFR. https://www.bdo.com.au/en-au/services/advisory/deal-advisory/valuation-services/portfolio-asset-valuation https://www.bdo.com.au/en-au/services/advisory/deal-advisory/valuation-services/portfolio-asset-valuation"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"A thousand followers and yet even my children don't listen to me"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"ASX200 Rebalance Arbitrage So today is the last day prior to the quarterly rebalance on Monday. It does look like there is positive movement in eight of the nine new additions. The passive funds do have to invest whether they like to or not and preferably not too early to avoid tracking error unless they have hedged their risk potentially by outsourcing to a hedge fund. Relative to the ASX200 as a whole which is up 0.5% the upside with an equal holding of all nine items is about 1.5% so you get three times the yield as a day trade. I'm not typically a day trader but for those that do this is"
X Link 2025-09-19T01:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$DMP : Exit A tale of two restaurants.I see a very big and busy pizza shop right next to Domino's. Not a single person in Domino's a crowd in the pizza shop next door. That was sufficient for me to sell my holding at a loss"
X Link 2025-10-02T02:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"My vote is selfwealth or stake for Australian shares as they are chess sponsored. I vote interactive brokers for anything international because it uses wise as a back end so the currency exchange fees are competitive.compare that to selfwealth where the turn backwards and forwards gives you about a 2% drag"
X Link 2025-10-19T09:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Frustration through a Stale Vote I have been thinking about why the $MYX price of $6.20 is so far below the Scheme price of $7.40 despite the recent Supreme Court win for Mayne over Cosette. I think one reason is the risk of a "stale vote" which is discussed by KWM. The Supreme Court decided in favour of Mayne on the 15th of October. Cosette has [--] days to appeal to the NSWCA which brings us to the 12th of November. On appeal the SC judgement is immediately stayed. It is notable that despite the passage of time there has currently been no appeal by Cossette. The scheme will"
X Link 2025-10-22T02:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$DMP.AX : Arbitrage Don't always believe the rumour- street talk claims interest by Bain but it all seems froth based on the ASX announcement. Even if I saw the announcement I wouldn't have jumped in as my due diligence says I don't want to buy $DMP"
X Link 2025-10-28T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Takeover Panel - FIRB An analysis by @fabreres for which he gives me too much credit. The critical point here is that Cosette has made undertakings both in the scheme implementation deed and at the first court hearing that it would approach FIRB for approval and not close the operation. A careful reading reveals that Cossette has NOT provided itself with the option in its various disclaimers of changing its mind in terms of either the factory or its application to FIRB DURING this process. It has ONLY reserved the option of changing it's mind after COMPLETION of the scheme at"
X Link 2025-11-08T05:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Update Congratulations to all those sensible people that bailed as soon as this arbitrage broke. Those that stayed have continued to lose approximately 30% of the break value as a new registry unwinds larger positions after assessing the underlying value of the stock. I think generally the philosophy should be you should immediately sell on a break unless you have a very very good reason not to do so especially if the arbitrage has been an extended situation. It was notable that the AGM last week did not provide inspiration that some level of restructuring would take place to ensure"
X Link 2026-02-03T00:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$QUB.AX : Avoid Arbitrage Substantial holder notice shows a bunch of associates holding over 18% which presumably they will roll over into the new private entity. Street Talk had a nice article on the matter. What I mostly took away from the article is how many possible partners walked away from the deal because they thought it made no sense. And yet it is still running at only 5.6% yield as an NBIO doing due diligence. I don't invest in NBIO anymore as I audit my performance and generally the risk is not worth the reward. It's classic Warren Buffett to wait for a declared deal. There are"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I get it Dekka I've read most of Milton's books. He's a bit of a fascist but he's almost always right. A hard nosed economist we need more of them; pretty sure he would look at Mr Chalmers with contempt. As for children.I will support any initiative by my children I will buy a house for them at least one I will set them up but it's not a free gift because they have to do the same thing for their children. The actual obligation is far greater than just looking after yourself"
X Link 2026-02-13T08:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$FAU.AX : Retraction my Raihani Just for the record Mr Daniel Raihani ( @DanielRaihani ) has purchased more of this company and not lightened his holding although his holdings were diluted by capital raise which confused the picture. This was pointed out at the time by the ever watchful @longhorncapital and I agreed. Why the more public clarification Well Daniel wrote to me directly and was a little bit miffed and fair enough so here I am setting the record straight. You would have thought he would be happy that I compared him with Buffett in my post How about a beer buddy You can't"
X Link 2026-02-13T09:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$CBA.AX : Volatility I just don't get how a $284b company can jump 20% ($50b) in [--] weeks on the basis of not very much. I think we have too much money with too few options in the market. PE [--] with RBA cash rate 3.85% basically means punters are paying like the investment is at the risk free rate (1/.0385= 26). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021778837437395384 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021778837437395384"
X Link 2026-02-12T02:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Minotaur Capital Always impressive to see funds actually reach out and talk to us. Well done Thomas. https://x.com/thomasrice_au/status/2022138760390226019s=20 @ausnotes @toy59496 @bowtiedstocks This is a bit of a late reply but. it's actually pretty hard building a new fund from scratch and "build it and they will come" is mostly a myth so we do lean into media (Arms more than me). Hopefully that doesn't dissuade people from reading our updates. :) https://x.com/thomasrice_au/status/2022138760390226019s=20 @ausnotes @toy59496 @bowtiedstocks This is a bit of a late reply but. it's actually"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$QUB.AX : Arbitrage Likely a done deal- still not sorry I didn't enter given the unfavorable spread and underlying uncertainties. https://www.afr.com//street-talk/macquarie-ready-to-sign-11-6b-qube-take-private-gic-back-in-frame-20260215-p5o2f9btis https://www.afr.com//street-talk/macquarie-ready-to-sign-11-6b-qube-take-private-gic-back-in-frame-20260215-p5o2f9btis"
X Link 2026-02-15T04:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$DRO.AX : valuation I've made no secret of my lack of enthusiasm about this company's technology which is easily defeated by a drone equipped with the system available from $ELS.AX. If they want to impress me they need to have a drone gun that will work on a drone equipped with 5G RF and satellite communication. In my view they are way behind the overseas competition. I would not want their gun in a combat situation. And I would want new management as they have been unable to generate a profit for many many years until this last half year. I now see that the market price has jumped up 8%"
X Link 2025-10-08T06:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$CU6 : Co-PSMA This went under the radar somewhat yesterday because I don't think people realise how profound that result has been. Let me spell it out for you. The vast majority of people who get prostate cancer who are youngish will get a radical prostatectomy. If they are lucky their PSA a blood test will drop to undetectable to indicate the bulk of the tumour has been removed. But it is never fully removed and there are always cells floating around that may or may not grow. If those cells are a high grade tumour or you are quite young then you have a significant probability of having a"
X Link 2025-10-14T21:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Wins Judgement for the plaintiff in Mayne Pharma v Cosette. Now those that listened to me will be about 70% richer.I feel the need to big note myself. Of course there will be an appeal.and they have [--] days to do so. And there's still the FIRB. Judgement handed down [--] minutes ago.no written judgement as solicitors have [--] hours to remove anything corporate in confidence. Then published at 6.30pm. And yes saw Ben from HL there in the corner. Max Mason from AFR there scribbling so there will be an article later. (disclaimer: not financial advice)"
X Link 2025-10-15T05:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$TOE.AX : Progress Arbitrage I mentioned this arbitrage two days ago. It's been going well since. Current Value = US$10.82 x [----] currency conversion x [-----] scrip = AUD$0.60. Still undervalued significantly BUT you have both market and currency risk. I have only a modest allocation for that reason and because I prefer cash offers. It's worth pointing out that the current market is unusual in the usually you go long the acquired and short the acquirer to remove systemic market risk from the arbitrage. But in the current hot market excess returns are being found by going along both acquirer"
X Link 2025-10-15T07:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MYX.AX Judgement https://www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/decision/199e497f437b1e1b7f6f4299 https://www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/decision/199e497f437b1e1b7f6f4299"
X Link 2025-10-15T08:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Analysis of Judgement I've just spent the last [--] hours reading the comprehensive judgement of [---] paragraphs. [--]. The Supreme Court of NSW is amazing in managing to deliver a judgement in a single day. [--]. The judgement is remarkably similar to the lucid analysis of both Fabreres @fabreres and Luke Cummings of Harvest Lane. I put Luke's article below for reference because so many of the points that he made are reflected in the judgement. [--]. The judgement is devastating for Cosette in terms of the credibility of their witnesses. While an appeal to the NSWCA may be inevitable this is"
X Link 2025-10-15T10:27Z [----] followers, 22.3K engagements

"$MYX.AX : Revised Entry A few people have contacted me as to whether there is anything still left in this arbitrage. I think it depends on the level of today's recovery. The deal has returned to slightly more risky than a conventional arbitrage and you can set your own level as to what you think the relative risks to completion are now. However I would suggest anything under $6.70 gives sufficient room for a negotiated settlement and accounts for the small risks of appeal and FIRB. I am already at my maximum allocation so in good conscience can't increase my holdings. This is not financial"
X Link 2025-10-15T20:35Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements

"@puppyeh1 I couldn't help it I bought another half a million.sometimes things just scream bargain.is the world blind"
X Link 2025-10-15T23:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MYX.AX : The Future Let's go through the risks. [--]. FIRB - there is very little in the way of national interest to prevent approval. I am not concerned. [--]. Second Court Date - it is a procedural matter to move the second court date and while the SID does say this should be agreed by parties it is Mayne that would apply for relief in the case of dissension and it is up to the Court in the form of Justice Black to determine if it can be shifted or if Cosette can terminate given lack of agreement. I'm confident in the interests of justice he will agree to shift the matter. I did go to Court and"
X Link 2025-10-17T10:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$EDU.AX : End Game It seems pretty obvious the end game here is a second successful attempt at a management buyout. By directing profits into share buy backs (10% of shares next [--] months) we see management consolidating control without personally having to buy a single share on market. It's clearly more efficient to use your earnings instead. ABD Holdings Limited is the corporate entity of CEO Adam Davis who is increasing control without having to personally purchase any additional shares on market. If management holds their shares but other shareholders sell into the buyback the transfer of"
X Link 2025-10-18T23:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Brokerage: CommSec I hope none of you are using CommSec for trading.look at the profit relative to revenue reported in the AFR today"
X Link 2025-10-19T08:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Appeal Cosette has [--] days to appeal the judgement of Justice Black in the Supreme Court of NSW which brings us to the 12th of November. Keeping in mind that the contract terminates on the 20th of November unless the parties agree to extend it then it is unlikely they will wait until then to submit their appeal. I suspect they will submit their appeal in the next few days. The market will inevitably react negatively to that announcement despite the fact that it is inevitable. For those that have not entered this trade this might be an opportune time although of course I provide no"
X Link 2025-10-20T03:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : UBS sold out That explains the downward pressure since the judgement those weaklings at UBS have thrown in the towel"
X Link 2025-10-20T07:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The KHQ summary is very important because it means there are two limbs that need to be overcome at NSWCA for the decision to be overturned. Even if Cosette can prove a MAC breach they still have to explain away why they affirmed the SID at the first scheme meeting. I think it's a very high bar to jump. With thanks to @fabreres who shared this with me"
X Link 2025-10-20T08:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Scheme Meeting Moved Second and final scheme meeting moved to [--] Nov after FIRB decision. That must have been unopposed by Cosette given it had to be by agreement"
X Link 2025-10-20T22:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$WDS.AX : Valuation Perhaps some of you commodity experts can explain why Woodside is lagging. It's a red on my portfolio despite: [--]. Valuation appears cheap [--]. Fat dividends [--]. Good news on North West Shelf [--]. Biggest gas producer [--]. Domestic and Asian (Korea Japan) fighting for the gas. [--]. Competition ($STO.AX) in disarray. What am I missing https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1980413677242388510 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1980413677242388510"
X Link 2025-10-20T23:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Samuel Terry: $MI6.AX & $OBL.AX I've been reading Samuel Terry's September quarterly report. I tend to keep up to date with these fellows as they often find interesting ideas as deep value investors and part of my backup plan for the family office should I get hit by a truck. Their top line results are impressive but I find it difficult to understand how deep value investors have major holdings in a non-productive gold mine eg I dug up the financial statements and it does look great in terms of size quality of ore and management but it is being valued at a time of unprecedented gold values"
X Link 2025-10-21T03:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$WDS.AX : Earnings Upgrade Woodside continues to look cheaper and cheaper on the metrics"
X Link 2025-10-21T22:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FPR.AX : know when you're wrong. I just sold out of Fleet Partners at a small loss. I entered a few weeks ago because I thought it looked very undervalued on the metrics with a significant dividend yield. But I did more of a dive today and I see that their new business writings (NBW) are down 17% their systems had a blackout for an unconscionable [--] weeks due to the implementation of their new software system (Accelerate) macroeconomic conditions are weaker so the economics are unfavourable the novated lease business is very much dependant on tax deductions which can be affected by government"
X Link 2025-10-21T23:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$ELS.AX & $DRO.AX: A Tale of Two Companies and the Strangeness of Markets. I want to talk to you about these two companies because there appears to be a dissonance between an understanding of the two technologies. $DRO has been a market darling with multiple orders and a market capitalisation over [--] billion. It's primary product is a gun that jams radio frequencies which most conventional drones rely on to communicate. Without some level of autonomy like AI that means a disconnect between the soldier and the drone and failure of the drone. At first sight this seems like an excellent"
X Link 2025-10-22T00:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$AHX.AX : Arbitrage Back to my usual bread and butter. Apiam finally has a binding offer rather than the NBIO. Notably the deal has dropped from $0.88 to $0.87 per share. You get the option of having shares in an unlisted entity as an alternative which seems too opaque for me. It was possible to purchase these shares at $0.76 at the announcement of the NBIO. It is always a risk purchasing with an NBIO particularly from a private equity player but the yield of 14% at that time probably compensated for the risk. In fact the yield will be a little bit more given there will be franking credits"
X Link 2025-10-22T04:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Timetable Search of the court lists shows a directions hearing tomorrow (24th October) which might result in an announcement. The simplest explanation is that it is a discussion on costs. The court date to approve the scheme of arrangement has now appeared for the 3rd November. In some ways this is odd because Cosette's entitlement to appeal only expires on the 12th November. FIRB decisions are not published as it is considered confidential between the parties and so will be provided to Cosette who will then provide it to Mayne who will then publish the result; FIRB have undertook"
X Link 2025-10-23T03:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$EDU.AX : Immigration I think these two images tell the story. https://www.afr.com//policy/economy/labor-to-overshoot-migration-forecast-by-15pc-20251017-p5n3btbtis https://www.afr.com//policy/economy/labor-to-overshoot-migration-forecast-by-15pc-20251017-p5n3btbtis"
X Link 2025-10-23T07:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"We are all geniuses. .in a hot market"
X Link 2025-10-24T06:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$AYA.AX I'll put some thought in it but it just looks like noise looking at the overall chart. I had a quick look at the financial statements and the technology. They burnt [--] million in the last quarter which doesn't seem like a lot of money. They have a major sapphire study underway. Looking at the technology can I identify downsides Yes I can. CT coronary angiograms (CTCA) are cool. I've had one myself just as I wanted a baseline on my coronary status. It's much less invasive than an actual coronary angiogram which requires access usually through your groin and squirting die up in your"
X Link 2025-10-27T22:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@puppyeh1 I'm with you Big J and will vote accordingly. What is the end game here A better offer in an arbitrage Simply go long as the business is undervalued and will recover"
X Link 2025-10-27T22:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$GGP.AX : don't follow the crowd. Just sold out of that at a loss. I thought debased currency gold a good macro economic hedge it has a tailwind new entry into the index so an even further tailwind. Down 20%. I knew I was a bit of a dumbass when I entered it as I don't normally play in the commodities space as it's usually more for a technical analyst or chartist. I have a little rule on any commodity that if it's substantially below 10% loss I exit. Keep in mind that 20% down requires 25% up just to get back to even. The geometric mean problem. I congratulate my counterparty on my gift of"
X Link 2025-10-27T23:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$AUB.AX : Arbitrage With thanks to @ArrowInvestor who flagged this to me as I was asleep on the cabana. This deal has a significant spread albeit it is an NBIO with a private equity player which should raise a yellow flag always. The private equity player EQT group has closed on a number of other businesses and keep in mind that given our currency exchange rate we look cheap which is one reason why so many things are coming off the bourse. They have six weeks due diligence I think they'll probably close near the indicative price and based on say [--] months from start to finish that's about a"
X Link 2025-10-28T04:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Update An excellent scenario analysis by @fabreres As open disclosure we have discussed this matter extensively offline so it is not surprising I would approve I notice the liquidity is very low.most of the major arbitrageurs have already sized a position and are awaiting events. I did hope for an improved entry point with a weak FIRB condition or NSWCA appeal but there is a chance it will just converge to the relevant price. There may well be an opportunity cost with waiting to fully size. Events will unfold over the next three days."
X Link 2025-10-29T02:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$HUM.AX : "Associates" For those of you watching at home ASIC requires associates to declare themselves as such under s608 of the Corporations Act as has been done in this case. It also has a strategic advantage because it means a more significant shareholding through acting in concert and makes the parties more difficult to ignore. It's always an education watching Big J at work. s608 Corporation Act https://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ca2001172/s608.html https://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ca2001172/s608.html"
X Link 2025-10-29T03:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Events For those of you watching this space it's going to be a very busy next trading day. FIRB has undertaken to provide a decision by 31st of October which is tomorrow (Friday). The second scheme date is meant to be 4:30 p.m. on the following Monday (3 Nov) and is still registered as such on the court lists. If both of those events go through without misadventure you have two trading days left to take a position if that is your plan. For those that prevail the upside is $1.20. If it does not prevail I think the downside may be $1.70-$2.70. Cossette still has scope to object to"
X Link 2025-10-30T10:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Chalmers & PM Mayne pharma is unable to discuss the FIRB preliminary decision with either FIRB or the Treasurer. So it is up to those of us that have an interest to do so. PM TREASURER jim.chalmers.mp@aph.gov.au Couple of points to communicate your rage: [--]. Point out that you will have losses it's not just a [---] people at Salisbury plant but people who have invested in good faith on this deal closure [--]. Point out that Cosette intended to keep the plant open and is simply using closure as a device to get out of its contractual responsibilities. Indicate your surprise the government"
X Link 2025-10-31T00:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : PERSPECTIVE For those feeling a little bruised this morning about this arbitrage going off the wheels keep in mind we are in good company. Buffet in his partnership letters talks about one particularly down year where the "Apple fell off the Cart". A good 40% of his funds were in arbitrage when he was operating with smaller amounts of cash. It has got me thinking about arbitrage in Australia though. It's not sufficient to have a legal system that will enforce a deal if we have a government that will just be a patsy. I think I will look in other jurisdictions while the socialists are"
X Link 2025-10-31T01:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Strategy Alright group mind let's put a heads together and think about how to manage this matter. It's not just about our loss it's also about undermining M&A in Australia. [--]. Contact the relevant parties eg Treasurer Opposition PM. [--]. Contact friendly media eg AFR The Australian [--]. Get some political advocacy ourselves eg there are players that advocate directly. I have done one and two but I don't know how to go and do three. Anybody got any ideas"
X Link 2025-10-31T01:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : political advocacy I have contacted Bondi Partners to do some political advocacy. However it might be that another group is better placed to do this rather than Joe Hockey and company. Does anybody have suggestions I've concluded that I must do this given that Mayne cannot do it itself"
X Link 2025-10-31T02:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Political Advocacy I'm not done here yet: I have contacted everyone I can think of that might be useful. The problem is political and the solution needs to be political. I am thinking about an outfit like Bondi Partners but maybe another group is more appropriate. Either reply or DM"
X Link 2025-10-31T05:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Injunctive Relief Mayne may have grounds to seek injunctive relief against Cosette for failing to use its "best endeavours" to secure FIRB approval. There is precedent in the Delaware Court. Desktop Metal Inc. v. Nano Dimension Ltd. (Del. Ch.) https://www.quinnemanuel.com/the-firm/publications/desktop-metal-inc-v-nano-dimension-ltd-del-ch-another-victory-for-deal-certainty/ https://www.quinnemanuel.com/the-firm/publications/desktop-metal-inc-v-nano-dimension-ltd-del-ch-another-victory-for-deal-certainty/"
X Link 2025-10-31T08:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX Yes arbitrageurs as a species are not well respected. Which is very surprising because essentially we underwrite the deal closure much like insurance. We also provide very important liquidity for long-term investors to exit at a premium leaving a small amount on the table for which we take the risk. The problem here is that we have underwritten this deal closure but the rules have changed particularly with FIRB and the Treasurer. The court has worked but the politics have interfered in a way that has never happened before for a minor domestic purpose that has been improperly portrayed"
X Link 2025-10-31T20:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MYX.AX : According to The Australian the FIRB actually approved the takeover. Chalmers said he had "advice" but clearly that was simply a phone call from Mr Malinauskas who is facing election next year. As @fabreres says Mr Chalmers should simply condition the deal as has been done previously. I have engaged with a few political advocacy types and they say it will be a hard job to overturn as the optics of losing [---] jobs is difficult to battle. Of course those jobs are safe but they don't want risks with a SA election next year. It's pure nepotism and an abuse of the treasurer's powers for"
X Link 2025-10-31T23:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Options to Defeat Chalmers Let's consider the range of options and itemize them. [--]. Mobilise public opinion eg Media Campaign. We have already seen the results of that with excellent articles in the media. [--]. Mobilise intervention directly with the decision makers eg professional lobbyists on the labour side. [--]. Mobilise criticism amongst the opposition both federally and in the state of South Australia eg contact them. [--]. Make an application to the NACC (national anti corruption commission) and SA (ICAC) with the concern that their is potential for corrupt behaviour if this"
X Link 2025-11-01T09:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I understand there's been a few people ridiculing me but that's alright. At least I have the courage of my convictions and am transparent with the results. I wonder how many of them tell people when things don't work out They probably go hide in the corner. I don't actually see the posts because they just get blocked. I suggest you block them too. If people have useful criticisms or useful contributions that's different. But looking at the posts of quite a few of these blocked people they are pretty low IQ and profane cretins. Most of them are $LDX.AX fanboys and I had the audacity to"
X Link 2025-11-01T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MPA.AX : Scheme Implemented Well done to those that participated in the Mad Paws arbitrage. Total of 12% yield in less than [--] months 36% per annum. As a very small capitalisation company (micro cap) this is something that is made for retail investors as it will not move the needle for the big funds"
X Link 2025-11-03T09:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Court Date Though not announced publicly we appear to have a revised court date for the 11th November"
X Link 2025-11-03T12:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : National Interest There has been significant commentary in the AFR and by various managers about the preliminary FIRB position giving Cosette a free pass to abandon it's obligations to share holders. What is absent from that commentary is an analysis of whether or not there is a genuine national interest in keeping the Salisbury plant owned by Mayne Pharma in Australian hands. To understand that we must look at what facilities do a similar job within Australia. The factory in Salisbury formulates and packages drugs. It's not critical infrastructure or rare earths. It turns out that"
X Link 2025-11-04T01:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The other thing to remind people here is that if the FIRB decision is pushed to [--] Nov that means Cosette is going to have to make a decision whether or not to appeal the SC decision beforehand as that expires on the [--] Nov. That's not ideal for them. A lot of moving parts over the next two weeks"
X Link 2025-11-04T06:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Do Nothing Albo Wrote to the PM.he probably can't read"
X Link 2025-11-04T23:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Game Changer https://www.afr.com/street-talk/asx-listed-pharmaceutical-tiddler-bids-for-mayne-s-adelaide-plant-20251106-p5n8au https://www.afr.com/street-talk/asx-listed-pharmaceutical-tiddler-bids-for-mayne-s-adelaide-plant-20251106-p5n8au"
X Link 2025-11-06T05:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Takeover Panel Double punch"
X Link 2025-11-06T07:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$HUM.AX : Masterclass Watch and learn as a masterclass in shareholder activism by Big J & Collins St Asset Management https://www.afr.com//street-talk/project-v-humm-activist-moves-against-abercrombie-weighs-spill-20251109-p5n8u4btis https://www.afr.com//street-talk/project-v-humm-activist-moves-against-abercrombie-weighs-spill-20251109-p5n8u4btis"
X Link 2025-11-09T05:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$BSA.AX : Ayers Capital I keep track of this one out of interest although I no longer hold and I see a significant allocation that if it keeps increasing will need to convert to a takeover. If I have identified the right person behind the name then somebody with a history of delivering value. https://sharetrading.guru/directory/bryce-edwards-ayers-cap/ https://sharetrading.guru/directory/bryce-edwards-ayers-cap/"
X Link 2025-11-12T21:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$DRO.AX : insider share disposals If these disposals were coordinated then I am sure ASIC is watching closely with SMARTS and MAI. The size of the sale and the fact that more than one party has sold at one time would raise significant red flags. I did not enter this trade because it is well known that I consider their technology inferior and that there were problems with management. I take no pleasure in being right. It was accidental that it was timely as well because that criticism was at the peak price"
X Link 2025-11-12T22:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$DRO.AX : Governance This will be my third and last post on this today. However I really do feel some compassion for those shareholders who have invested in this company in good faith only to have the CEO sell out along with one of the directors clearly banking on future options to come their way. This is not just opportunistic but fundamentally undermines the company through damaging the ability of the corporate entity to raise capital. Equity raises are usually at a discount to the prevailing share price and after these insider sales the price has dropped to 2/3 of what it was yesterday. So"
X Link 2025-11-13T01:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : FIRB delayed Another update- I view this as positive because if it was going to get flatly refused they would have just stated as such. It has oxygen. It does complicate the timeline"
X Link 2025-11-13T04:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$DRO.AX : Unrepentant Oleg If anybody hasn't sold out already they certainly will tomorrow after this little unrepentant announcement from our leader. Apparently his uncrystallized free options means he continues to have skin in the game which is an attempt to argue a false equivalence with shareholders who actually had to pay for their equity. Goodbye Oleg"
X Link 2025-11-13T06:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

""Among issues queried by Darbyshire was the accounting treatment of software on Humms balance sheet as an asset rather than an expense". This is a good one for accounting fiends. If you expense rather than capitalise an asset in the short term it looks worse for the company as operating costs increase and EBITDA does down. If you are using a multiple of EBITDA to value a company then the purchase price does down and shareholders get shafted from the accounting treatment. This is probably one reason why Jeremy is jumping up and down because this treatment serves to undervalue the company in"
X Link 2025-11-13T11:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$HUM.AX : Accounting Tutorial https://x.com/toy59496/status/1988928517766353105s=20 @puppyeh1 "Among issues queried by Darbyshire was the accounting treatment of software on Humms balance sheet as an asset rather than an expense". This is a good one for accounting fiends. If you expense rather than capitalise an asset in the short term it looks worse for the company as https://t.co/EcNzL5vJ1J https://x.com/toy59496/status/1988928517766353105s=20 @puppyeh1 "Among issues queried by Darbyshire was the accounting treatment of software on Humms balance sheet as an asset rather than an expense"."
X Link 2025-11-13T11:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Chalmers Comrade Chalmers more a socialist then a capitalist. https://x.com/fabreres/status/1989116251919249746s=20 $MYX.AX: Chalmers in AFR impliedly acknowledges hes blocked the deal. https://x.com/fabreres/status/1989116251919249746s=20 $MYX.AX: Chalmers in AFR impliedly acknowledges hes blocked the deal"
X Link 2025-11-13T23:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Debt Financing A nice summary by @fabreres of the debt financing for this SID. It is still conceivable that Cossette could terminate on the claimed basis of being unable to obtain financing. We have already learnt that there is nothing this private equity backed acquirer will not do to exit a deal so anything is possible. The general perception is that this will not be necessary because the Treasurer will terminate the deal by refusing FIRB approval on Monday. The reports of the Treasurer's comments on Friday by the AFR were somewhat out of context and the more comprehensive report"
X Link 2025-11-15T01:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MYX.AX : Treasury Transcript This is what Mr Chalmers himself claims he had to say on the doorsteps of the Opera house regarding this deal. Well done Brandon How of Capital Brief in asking three questions on the deal. I will let you form your own conclusions. https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/transcripts/doorstop-interview-sydney-3 https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/transcripts/doorstop-interview-sydney-3"
X Link 2025-11-15T11:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ryu_tay $PME For [--] years now I've been thinking that it's too expensive relative to earnings.oooops"
X Link 2025-08-14T09:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$STO.AX I exited today having a very large position. I made a trivial profit but I do not like the slow decision making by our Middle eastern friends and there are in any event significant uncertainties with FIRB approval. It is also at the NBIO stage and having been just burnt by $ASK.AX with its NBIO. I think confirmed rather than indicative non-binding offers make more sense for large positions. I actually think our government is unlikely to prevent takeover just look at $PEK.AX which is slipping through the net. I bet most of you aren't even watching that one. Having said all of that the"
X Link 2025-08-26T02:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$STO.AX : Review It might be a good time to revisit what we believe is the price of Santos in the setting of no acquisition. Prior to the NBIO announcement on [--] June [----] it was trading over $6.50 but there had been considerable prior volatility. Since then the earnings have been delivered and underwhelmed the community. The proposed NBIO acquisition price was about $8.80. The current price is $7.70. I estimate the downside is $6.00. So there is $1.70 downside and $1.10 upside which suggests the market believes there is a higher probability of success than of failure. I like to think of"
X Link 2025-09-08T06:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$NSX.AX : Arbitrage Another arbitrage I missed (19 May) quite a lot of them appeared in May [----] and I was asleep that month; it must be peak month for acquisitions. In any event $NSX is only about [--] million market capitalisation and the takeover price is $0.04 with practically zero liquidity. But some attentive sorts who got in early would have made some reasonable money. Few things I noticed [--]. You really did have to enter at the announcement to get any sizeable position as you can see by the volume. [--]. This was another one that had some level of optionality because the price was revised"
X Link 2025-09-10T07:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"SmartKarma : Utility Does anybody use SmartKarma as a source to identify and analyse merger arbitrage options It's pretty pricey at US $60 per month. The main analyst seems to be Arun George. Advantage is they cover throughout the Asia Pacific for those that have an interest in both the Australian and HK market for example. If people don't use this to identify opportunities particularly overseas please suggest what other resources you use In Australia I typically just scan the ASX announcements after our previous discussion on this matter but I'm not sure it's that straightforward in Hong"
X Link 2025-09-15T23:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$STO.AX : Deal Break Called it.I thought they were "tyre kickers". All the photos in their jets convinced me they were wasting everybody's time visiting all over the place at someone else's expense. And then the delay coming to an agreement. That was a visceral feeling and I am troubled that I can't quantify that into a general rule. I actually held a very large amount of STO in the beginning shortly after the initial announcement but then sold out at a 2% profit. But I would have sold out a loss as the thesis just no longer worked. There will be big losses as people will unwind tomorrow."
X Link 2025-09-17T12:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I don't have a view on $GQG.AX although Rajiv Jain is an intelligent operator. I generally do not invest in fund managers because it's one step removed from managing my own money. Nobody manages my money but me because of a number of reasons: [--]. If they need my money they are obviously not good at making their own. [--]. There is asymmetric optionality in the sense that if I win they win if I lose they win with the incentive structures so I never believe they are truly aligned. [--]. Even the best and most honest operators like Warren Buffett still made a significantly greater amount than his"
X Link 2025-10-22T01:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Exxon one of the biggest listed dividend producers of all time. But is grossly overpriced relative to PetroChina which remains cheap on a revenue multiple. I think Woodside is a bargain in plain sight. You sometimes get them much like coal was a couple of years ago. I'm seeing how far they descend but will increase my allocation. http://857.HK http://857.HK"
X Link 2025-10-22T06:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I agree which is why I have spent so much time working on $MYX as the margin is higher if the risk reward is appropriately established. I'm increasingly finding like you that the margins are so small on the confirmed deals because I think the big institutions are increasingly leveraging up with cheap money. For example if you look at $RPD.AX or $PSQ.AX it's just pointless"
X Link 2025-10-22T11:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$PPT.AX : Soft Arbitrage Bain sniffing around Perpetual according to the Australian We do not invest on rumours or even on NBIO especially with PE. PE = Predictable Exit https://archive.is/XTeQb https://archive.is/XTeQb"
X Link 2025-12-02T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$AIG.AX : Arbitrage Acquisition by Montage Gold $MAU.TO scrip for scrip. Currency Risk Market Risk Break Risk Buy $A1G hedge currency risk with ETF and short the acquirer. Accept break risk. $CAD cf $AUD seems in freefall. Conclusion: way too hard"
X Link 2025-12-02T22:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$DGR.AX : Arbitrage This is an indirect arbitrage. Jiangxi Cooper tried to buy Solgold and had their offer rejected. Solgold has prevailing price [--] GBX. $DGR has a 6.8% interest in Solgold which constitutes 95% of its market value. If you do the conversion $DGR is currently priced at 1/3 of the interest of that holding in the setting that Jiangxi Copper might come back with another offer. Of course they may not come back . Someone should double check my numbers to confirm. DYODD. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1996001351919354248 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1996001351919354248"
X Link 2025-12-02T23:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I thought it was relatively weak as the US segment is not doing as well as anticipated. I was very surprised the market did not drop more which just shows that the current price is not to do with valuation but to do with arbitrage unwind. The current price is still a very low multiple. The lack of negative pricing behaviour suggests that we are at a relatively strong support level at $3. Interestingly the reported EBITDA does not include royalties because oddly that is not considered cost of goods and sales. Economically it is of course part of goods and sales and if you included that the"
X Link 2025-12-22T22:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$KGD.AX : Compulsory Acquisition Announcement today that $FRS.AX now owns less than 90% $KGD but nevertheless intend to continue their compulsory acquisition. Those of us that know a little bit of corporate law might say "WTF Can they do that without owning more than 90% of the shares" But it turns out that it is perfectly reasonable as corporations law allows an acquirer like $FRS to insist on a compulsory acquisition as long as "at any time during the target period" they have acquired more than 90% of shares of that target ($KGD). This part of the corporations law is specifically intended"
X Link 2026-01-22T05:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$LDX.AX : Epilogue I recently provided a couple of reviews of this company which I've now deleted. That's unfortunate for those that may have been interested in the company and my take on some of the research. But there were a small group of cowboys that couldn't justify the actual data so did the argumentum ad hominem. When you have halfwits like that you know that you're in a bubble. I also discovered the block key which is a wonderful superpower. It got me thinking about Buffets Partnership letters which I've been re-reading. Every time Buffet made a purchase or a recommendation he"
X Link 2025-10-27T02:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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