@sweetstocksblog Alex SweetAlex Sweet posts on X about stocks, growth, link, bio the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence finance countries stocks fashion brands luxury brands currencies travel destinations cryptocurrencies technology brands social networks
Social topic influence stocks, growth, link, bio, in the, strong, japan, australia, business, $cprmi
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @mikefritzell @investinjapan @dabao @librariancap @travislundyasia @willschoebs @teddyokuyama @jamiehalse @borlaug @memyselfandi006 @rhomboid1mf @the1hustlehoff @brokenmoats @nicotudes @joinyellowbrick @valueinvestjpn @fundhunterco @markwharrier @fieldsoffire50 @taxlosstrades
Top assets mentioned Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Expeditors International of Wshngtn Inc (EXPD) MURPHY USA INC. (MUSA) Cipher (CPR)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Nick Scali to enter UK w/ [--] stores (ex Fabb Furniture) after Harvey Norman announced their first mainland store in Dudley in January. Aussie retail invasion Positive for the real estate owners at least $NCK.AX $HVN.AX"
X Link 2024-04-25T21:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"PREVIEW: one freight forwarder has trounced its peers in the last [--] yrs. How did it pull this off and can the outperformance continue On Sweet Stocks tomorrow $DSV.CO in context vs $KNIN & $EXPD. & a special Australian guest Sign up now to get post for free - link in bio"
X Link 2024-09-08T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"WiseTech of Australia is a $27bn software stock with dream growth & margins. but it trades at 100x P/E Can you instead share in their value creation through their star client DSV uses CargoWise to pull off huge M&A deals: DB Schenker the biggest yet $DSV.CO $WTC.AX PREVIEW: one freight forwarder has trounced its peers in the last [--] yrs. How did it pull this off and can the outperformance continue On Sweet Stocks tomorrow $DSV.CO in context vs $KNIN & $EXPD. & a special Australian guest Sign up now to get post for free - link in bio https://t.co/TUvFaW4TxR PREVIEW: one freight forwarder has"
X Link 2024-09-09T06:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Rentokil with a multi-pronged warning that takes c.10% off FY24 estimates. It also raises doubt whether & how they can fix the American operation. Terminix integration is evidently in serious trouble. The needs for growth & margin boost are in conflict. #RTO $RTO.L"
X Link 2024-09-11T06:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New by me: M3 of Japan is a serial acquirer in digital healthcare. Its websites for doctors are monetised via drug marketing recruitment market research & SaaS products Despite a stellar LT record M3 is -86% from peak due to a Covid hangover Now cheap I'm a buyer $2413.T PREVIEW POST - new Sweet Stocks write-up coming later tonight Which $7bn serial acquirer is still in an 80% drawdown despite a long track record of profitable growth and with prospects for more of the same https://t.co/BjNJvubJIt PREVIEW POST - new Sweet Stocks write-up coming later tonight Which $7bn serial acquirer is still"
X Link 2024-12-03T21:31Z [----] followers, 16.2K engagements
"Treatt FY looks decent. 13% H2 rev growth was a miss due to a delayed shipment but profit still ahead. setting up a good FY25 16x P/E if can grow 10% in coming year Top customer has jumped in size not explained in commentary. Is it a brand owner or a distributor #TET"
X Link 2024-12-04T07:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New by me: SITC the Ryanair of container shipping stocks. This Chinese liner has the smallest vessels but the biggest returns in the industry. See bio for link $1308.HK"
X Link 2024-04-15T06:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Is the world ready for the same argument in container shipping In my write-up today I make the case for SITC the too quality yet unknown $5bn niche winner in intra-Asia shorthaul. Link in bio $1308.HK (3/3)"
X Link 2024-04-15T13:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Good monthly numbers from Kobe Bussan after market close. SSSG +7.5% and parent OP +20.3% both decent. The highlight is [--] net new Gyomu Super store openings in March getting back on track after sluggish start to year. $3038.T"
X Link 2024-04-22T07:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Spirax-Sarco - new competitive threat. Spirax has been a big LT winner among UK engineer stocks. Especially thanks to Watson-Marlows clever lucrative fast-growing peristaltic pumps for bioprocessing. BUT last month a major new threat emerged (1/3) $SPX.L"
X Link 2024-04-29T08:53Z [----] followers, 10.7K engagements
"Ingersoll Rand has developed its own peristaltic pumps for biopharm. And in March it acquired ILC-Dover for $2.3bn to add single-use tubing. This directly attacks Spiraxs #1 position as the sole supplier of both pumps and tubing. (Avantor has Masterflex) 2/3 $SPX.L $IR $AVTR"
X Link 2024-04-29T08:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"ICYMI - quality container shipper SITC is up 23% since my write-up a couple of weeks ago. No specific news but China coming back into favour. Net result is I have an early gain but on a smaller position size than I would like. Ill be patient. $1308.HK https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/sitc-the-ryanair-of-container-shipping https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/sitc-the-ryanair-of-container-shipping"
X Link 2024-05-03T06:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Kobe Bussan ($3038.T) good monthly sales for April. H1 parent sales +11% OP +21%. The consistency of double-digit growth is impressive - see chart. They added [--] net new Gyomu Super stores in H1 on track for the [--] annual target. (Last year was [--] in H1 / [--] total). I hold"
X Link 2024-05-23T09:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great scuttlebutt from a commenter on my Kobe Bussan post who visited a Trial discount store and was impressed. Trial $141A.T is a $1.8bn new IPO. My thoughts below. TLDR an interesting new name to monitor but not a threat to Gyomu Super $3038.T New write-up: Kobe Bussan - hard discount winner. The Aldi of Japan is [--] years old and still has decades of strong growth ahead. Link in profile. Feedback welcome. https://t.co/dAWPPDdmQr New write-up: Kobe Bussan - hard discount winner. The Aldi of Japan is [--] years old and still has decades of strong growth ahead. Link in profile. Feedback welcome."
X Link 2024-05-25T11:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Kobe Bussan Q2 post close is solid. H1 rev +12% OP +25% for group. Both slightly ahead of the +11% / +21% already disclosed for parent in monthly data Tracking ahead of my Feb'24 write-up estimate of 15% EPS CAGR FY23-28E 30x P/E is cheap for defensive quality growth $3038.T"
X Link 2024-06-13T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sweet Stocks is [--] weeks old π° [--] full write-ups published This thread gives a recap of key posts to date Heres to the next [--] and many more after that Its been exhilarating. Thanks to all [---] subscribers If you haven't yet signed up - it's free Link is in bio 1/12"
X Link 2024-06-19T13:37Z [----] followers, 17.8K engagements
"SITC has been the best performer so far up 42%. (All returns quoted are in USD.) I like the obscure quality of SITC -- I believe it was not well known as a good company. $1308.HK https://x.com/sweetstocksblog/status/1779761341823156724 New by me: SITC the Ryanair of container shipping stocks. This Chinese liner has the smallest vessels but the biggest returns in the industry. See bio for link $1308.HK https://t.co/G9m2cBncf8 https://x.com/sweetstocksblog/status/1779761341823156724 New by me: SITC the Ryanair of container shipping stocks. This Chinese liner has the smallest vessels but the"
X Link 2024-06-19T13:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Not all have worked. The two most underwater are in Japan. Kobe Bussan is -18% in USD despite firm progress and no changes to estimates Valuation was a bit full when I posted but now v cheap. I'm adding. Franchisee G-7 flat $3038.T $7508.T https://x.com/sweetstocksblog/status/1769774143170400536 New write-up: Kobe Bussan - hard discount winner. The Aldi of Japan is [--] years old and still has decades of strong growth ahead. Link in profile. Feedback welcome. https://t.co/dAWPPDdmQr https://x.com/sweetstocksblog/status/1769774143170400536 New write-up: Kobe Bussan - hard discount winner. The"
X Link 2024-06-19T13:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great prices Aldi and Lidl charge me the same for German chocolate and it has a far shorter journey to reach me than Japan (Link in bio for my Kobe Bussan write-up) $3038.T Kobe Bussan's Gyomu Super: JPY [---] (US$1.2) for 100g chocolate and JPY [---] (US$0.9) for 70g dried mango https://t.co/fqFkez7QMY Kobe Bussan's Gyomu Super: JPY [---] (US$1.2) for 100g chocolate and JPY [---] (US$0.9) for 70g dried mango https://t.co/fqFkez7QMY"
X Link 2024-07-09T10:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Hugo Boss follows Swatch and Burberry with a big profit warning a 14% downgrade to FY EBIT at midpoint UK and China called out as particularly challenging Tough times for premium clobber $BOSS.DE"
X Link 2024-07-16T06:20Z [----] followers, 13.3K engagements
"Spirax $SPX.L with weaker than hoped H1 results and a cut to full year expectations. GBP also hurting The new CEO has made some abrupt management changes - Watson-Marlow left under interim leadership Valuation was too high to attract bargain-hunters with such cloudy outlook"
X Link 2024-08-08T08:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Great H1 from SITC $1308.HK PBT is +12% yoy or +57% sequentially. impressive as H2 is usually seasonally stronger Fleet up to [---] ships a new high: they seem to be deploying them easily enough See my April write-up on Sweet Stocks. My ests were likely too low I hold. New by me: SITC the Ryanair of container shipping stocks. This Chinese liner has the smallest vessels but the biggest returns in the industry. See bio for link $1308.HK https://t.co/G9m2cBncf8 New by me: SITC the Ryanair of container shipping stocks. This Chinese liner has the smallest vessels but the biggest returns in the"
X Link 2024-08-22T09:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New by me. Goldwin - scaling The North Face On Sweet Stocks now how the California outdoor brands Japanese distributor became its true and best owner Link in bio $8111.T PREVIEW: scaling The North Face Tomorrow on Sweet Stocks I profile the impressive and profitable owner of TNF brand with ambitions for global growth Plot twist: its not VF Corp Sign up now to get the post in your inbox for free. Link in bio PREVIEW: scaling The North Face Tomorrow on Sweet Stocks I profile the impressive and profitable owner of TNF brand with ambitions for global growth Plot twist: its not VF Corp Sign up"
X Link 2024-08-26T07:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"On DSV I'm grateful to a reader for raising two key points of caution that I failed to address in my main piece. See Q&A below. As I stated I had not finalised my own investment decision on DSV. I continue to ponder it and would advise caution. Views welcome $DSV.CO WiseTech of Australia is a $27bn software stock with dream growth & margins. but it trades at 100x P/E Can you instead share in their value creation through their star client DSV uses CargoWise to pull off huge M&A deals: DB Schenker the biggest yet $DSV.CO $WTC.AX https://t.co/BG1b3Ca822 WiseTech of Australia is a $27bn software"
X Link 2024-09-09T14:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"DSV secures DB Schenker for 14.3bn EV 0.77x LTM sales Schenker's LTM OP margin is 5.5% vs DSV's 10.6%. "Aspiration" to lift Schenker margin to DSV's level in Yr3 NB the [----] margins were 3.2% and 7.0% Need to believe DSV's future is far more profitable than past $DSV.CO WiseTech of Australia is a $27bn software stock with dream growth & margins. but it trades at 100x P/E Can you instead share in their value creation through their star client DSV uses CargoWise to pull off huge M&A deals: DB Schenker the biggest yet $DSV.CO $WTC.AX https://t.co/BG1b3Ca822 WiseTech of Australia is a $27bn"
X Link 2024-09-13T09:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Kobe Bussan down 12% in aftermarket as monthly data features a Y4.9bn loss on yen contracts. The stronger yen will benefit future Gyomu Super operating profit but hedge accounting is not in place Stock ran hard since yen turned now giving some back I hold. $3038.T"
X Link 2024-09-20T07:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A rare warning from Howden Joinery Despite resilient '24E performance tough market conditions mean no chance of achieving the double-digit profit growth that consensus had bizarrely forecast for 2025E - even before the extra budget tax costs France better than UK #HWDN"
X Link 2024-11-07T07:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Today's write-up is the $12bn mkt cap Shimano one of Japan's few firms with a dominant 50% global market share I hoped Shimano would be a buy but I found a number of risk areas for slower growth ahead Feedback welcome π $7309.T"
X Link 2024-11-18T07:56Z [----] followers, 17.9K engagements
"Reeces US business has been targeted by a VC-backed startup that has hired 25% of Reeces workforce in [--] months Ex Fortiline founder Tim Tysinger launched STAline in late [----] with VC funding Instant impact on Reece (1/4) $REH.AX Reece of Australia - my latest write-up. [--] years of compounding And now set to win in the US as well. Rich valuation but Id love to own it. $REH https://t.co/EQekCSvRqH https://t.co/4U55zINMfo Reece of Australia - my latest write-up. [--] years of compounding And now set to win in the US as well. Rich valuation but Id love to own it. $REH https://t.co/EQekCSvRqH"
X Link 2025-02-24T21:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Close Brothers is down 23% YTD after the FCA announced a review of possible compensation for widespread misconduct by motor finance firms. How big is the risk for Close (1/9) #CBG $CBG.L"
X Link 2024-01-17T15:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@FieldsOfFire50 To be fair to the company they did clearly disclose the potential liability. Size remains highly speculative until we hear back from the FCA. Tricky for #CBG to provide the clarity we want at this stage"
X Link 2024-01-29T12:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"New post: Caseys General Stores. How can a Midwest gas station chain be such a strong business https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/caseys-general-stores-well-fueled https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/caseys-general-stores-well-fueled"
X Link 2024-02-12T09:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For those that still have nightmares about McColls #MCLS and Conviviality #CVR its nice to see that convenience retail can make for a good investment. $CASY"
X Link 2024-02-12T09:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CASY $ATD $MUSA New post: Caseys General Stores. How can a Midwest gas station chain be such a strong business https://t.co/4vmnCzDqSZ https://t.co/Ja0HB7vYCF New post: Caseys General Stores. How can a Midwest gas station chain be such a strong business https://t.co/4vmnCzDqSZ https://t.co/Ja0HB7vYCF"
X Link 2024-02-12T09:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Greggs - last one standing. New post by me on why Greggs will keep beating the UK competition. Feedback very welcome. #GRG"
X Link 2024-02-26T07:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"It seems Whitbread sold Coke a pup with Costa whose profits collapsed since the deal - especially from shops. Greggs far steadier. #GRG #WTB $KO"
X Link 2024-02-26T07:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Greencore is a huge sandwich maker but also an inflation victim that cant return to pre Covid profits let alone grow them further. #GNC #GRG"
X Link 2024-02-26T07:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"McDonalds is the class act in UK fast food. My Companies House research shows relentless profit growth. I argue Greggs and McD can coexist with diff menus and models. $MCD #GRG"
X Link 2024-02-26T08:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Churchill China holders will be interested in Bunzls purchase of Nisbets. Merger of two key UK distributors may squeeze margins UK is 40% of total sales #CHH #BNZL"
X Link 2024-02-27T09:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Reece of Australia - my latest write-up. [--] years of compounding And now set to win in the US as well. Rich valuation but Id love to own it. $REH https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/tapping-america-reece-and-the-race https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/tapping-america-reece-and-the-race"
X Link 2024-03-04T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Croda time to restock. New deep-dive by me on Yorkshires most innovative sheepsgrease player. See bio for link. Feedback welcome #CRDA"
X Link 2024-03-25T07:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Croda provides the active ingredients that make other products work from LOreals luxury anti-ageing creams to Pfizers Covid vaccine. Such valuable products gave it sky-high margins of c25% to match. #CRDA"
X Link 2024-03-25T07:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Travis Perkins announces the sacking of the CEO even before finding a successor Premier League relegation club vibes. Sets up a tricky few months for the stock. #TPK"
X Link 2024-03-27T07:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"New write-up: Vita Life Sciences. In which I detour into microcap land to view the tasty but elusive fruit of an illiquid Australian vitamin seller. Link in bio http://VLS.AX http://VLS.AX"
X Link 2024-04-01T13:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Cocoa at 8k/t will put a big strain on BCs balance sheet to fund inventory. Plus a real risk that it kills demand and leads to a profit warning on volumes & EBIT. H1 results due on Wed will be tough. $BARN 2/3"
X Link 2024-04-08T06:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just catching up with Cettire story down under. It reads like @taxlosstrades caught them bang to rights in charging the customer full tax but not paying it on to the state of Texas a nice earner but not sustainable. How is it still trading with over $850m of market cap $CTT Well well well - Cettire admits to tax queries from Texas authorities $CTT https://t.co/SAYMcsXR6W Well well well - Cettire admits to tax queries from Texas authorities $CTT https://t.co/SAYMcsXR6W"
X Link 2024-04-09T07:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"H1 results from Barry Callebaut $BARN are resilient. No change to guidance and no alarms or surprises that I can see. I expect a relief rally. Conf call at 10am CET. 1/x https://www.barry-callebaut.com/system/files/2024-04/Barry%20Callebaut%20Group%20Half-Year%20Results%20Presentation%20Fiscal%20Year%202023%2024.pdf https://www.barry-callebaut.com/system/files/2024-04/Barry%20Callebaut%20Group%20Half-Year%20Results%20Presentation%20Fiscal%20Year%202023%2024.pdf"
X Link 2024-04-10T05:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Barry Callebaut mgmt took a bullish tone at analyst meeting. The CFO was offered a chance to walk back from the very high FY27E consensus EBIT (c.CHF841m) but instead recommitted to it firmly. 11x P/E on that number $BARN"
X Link 2024-04-10T09:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Learning Technologies #LTG may be a victim of reduced corporate spending Tough times: no growth next year and the mid-term targets are shelved"
X Link 2024-04-16T06:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sadly the business is no longer growing as fast as the CEOs Ferrari Challenge racing career π€"
X Link 2024-04-16T06:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Barry Callebaut upgraded to buy at Stifel $BARN Barry Callebaut mgmt took a bullish tone at analyst meeting. The CFO was offered a chance to walk back from the very high FY27E consensus EBIT (c.CHF841m) but instead recommitted to it firmly. 11x P/E on that number $BARN Barry Callebaut mgmt took a bullish tone at analyst meeting. The CFO was offered a chance to walk back from the very high FY27E consensus EBIT (c.CHF841m) but instead recommitted to it firmly. 11x P/E on that number $BARN"
X Link 2024-04-16T08:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New by me: $SAIA $ODFL and the US less-than-truckload industry. Why are these special trucking stocks so good - like 1000% good - when trucking in general is so lousy And is it too late to buy Link in bio #oligopoly #ltl"
X Link 2024-04-22T06:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"How much better can margins get for $ODFL and $SAIA In my view quality-led competition and strong price discipline can drive ORs even lower from current record levels. https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/saia-and-old-dominion-keep-on-rolling https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/saia-and-old-dominion-keep-on-rolling"
X Link 2024-04-22T12:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@PythiaR I wrote up the LTL group from a long-term perspective in case of interest. Where do we stand now in terms of timing the cycle for these names π How much better can margins get for $ODFL and $SAIA In my view quality-led competition and strong price discipline can drive ORs even lower from current record levels. https://t.co/UmmWcNA2GM https://t.co/FLyNfE617u How much better can margins get for $ODFL and $SAIA In my view quality-led competition and strong price discipline can drive ORs even lower from current record levels. https://t.co/UmmWcNA2GM https://t.co/FLyNfE617u"
X Link 2024-04-22T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@FreightAlley I wrote up the LTL sector from the generalist perspective suggesting hints of price-signalling and oligopoly behaviors that can take profitability even higher. Please let me know what I got wrong π How much better can margins get for $ODFL and $SAIA In my view quality-led competition and strong price discipline can drive ORs even lower from current record levels. https://t.co/UmmWcNA2GM https://t.co/FLyNfE617u How much better can margins get for $ODFL and $SAIA In my view quality-led competition and strong price discipline can drive ORs even lower from current record levels."
X Link 2024-04-22T12:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"LSL strong trading raised guidance and a new buyback. Complex but v interesting turnaround is bearing fruit. Is Simon Embleys Pivotal JV now including Charcol set to rival Mortgage Advice Bureau as a major broker network I own a sliver since last trading update #LSL"
X Link 2024-04-25T06:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Borlaug_ I loved your Avantor poast. How credible is $IRs big push into bioprocessing with the ILC-Dover acqn A possible threat to Masterflex and Watson-Marlow π Spirax-Sarco - new competitive threat. Spirax has been a big LT winner among UK engineer stocks. Especially thanks to Watson-Marlows clever lucrative fast-growing peristaltic pumps for bioprocessing. BUT last month a major new threat emerged (1/3) $SPX.L https://t.co/Dmf7K7qbqD Spirax-Sarco - new competitive threat. Spirax has been a big LT winner among UK engineer stocks. Especially thanks to Watson-Marlows clever lucrative"
X Link 2024-04-29T11:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Further on Spirax and the new threat from Ingersoll Rand: many thanks to sector expert @Borlaug_ for helpful colour below. He sees only partial overlap between ILC and Watson-Marlow offerings with $IR highlighting a GLP-1 example. #SPX @sweetstocksblog Thanks Alex. There is a lot of overlap across the [--] but ILC probably has the least competitive overlap with the others. Most of what you see below looks more like a small molecule process than bioprocess. Peptides (GLP) is technically a large molecule but LLY/Novo makes them like https://t.co/811CDnb5ps @sweetstocksblog Thanks Alex. There is a"
X Link 2024-04-30T08:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@drissen_felix @EastAsiaStocks Main problem is Fintwit cant buy domestic Korean stocks Not available on IBKR etc sadly"
X Link 2024-05-05T12:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Buldak noodles maker Samyang Foods has been a monster stock. Global hit brand 21% 5yr cagr for sales and EBIT. Still cheap at 15x 2024e P/E. Deserves to be as beloved as $CELH but sadly most of Fintwit cant buy domestic Korean names. $003230.KS"
X Link 2024-05-05T12:37Z [----] followers, 31.8K engagements
"Its even big in Omaha wow Buldak has made its way to Omaha https://t.co/KvqHDboFgB wow Buldak has made its way to Omaha https://t.co/KvqHDboFgB"
X Link 2024-05-05T12:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@wusatiuk IBKR. From UK it has the best range of intl markets including Japan Taiwan HK and Australia - but sadly I have no access to Korea right now. Only workaround would be a complex offshore broker account such as Monex"
X Link 2024-05-05T15:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"See full post for details of two catalysts due on Thursday. FY results will reveal new shape of Daiwabos balance sheet post disposal of textile biz in March. And a new buyback announcement is also on the cards. Mgmts commitment to ROIC is impressive. $3107.T Daiwabo - wholesale excellence. This IT distributor is a Japanese value play that grows faster than most proper growth stocks but remains extremely cheap. $3107.T https://t.co/okW39QqD8P https://t.co/eabwes2CZ2 Daiwabo - wholesale excellence. This IT distributor is a Japanese value play that grows faster than most proper growth stocks but"
X Link 2024-05-06T07:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@InvestInJapan Very fair challenge. Sales fell 11% yoy in worst [--] quarters of Covid but bounced back hard as they added online option alongside face-to-face. Structural tailwind is scarcity of people in Japan -- need to make the best of the staff you've got"
X Link 2024-05-07T19:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sustainability of scary high margins is justified pushback on $6200.T Insource. My best answer is below - but I hesitate to come off the fence and write up the name in full for Sweet Stocks due to this fear. @Simba20232023 Yes the 38% margin on a tiny USD75m sales base is undeniably scary. In their defence this is an IP biz akin to software. Proprietary course contents are write once sell many times -- 77% gross margin. Only scale competitor is Recruits Management Solutions (similar size) @Simba20232023 Yes the 38% margin on a tiny USD75m sales base is undeniably scary. In their defence this"
X Link 2024-05-07T22:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Mar24 was another strong year for the core DIS business with update in green below. DIS made further market share gains. iKAZUCHI cloud product had a big Q4 as hoped. (2/4)"
X Link 2024-05-09T09:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"FCF was strong in FY24 which boosted net cash to Y52bn. ROIC up to 12.6%. A new buyback of Y10bn plus Y6.5bn divi adds up to 6.8% cash payout yield. Pretty tasty combined with ongoing growth. (3/4)"
X Link 2024-05-09T09:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"BFF Bank plunges 39% over two days on probe by central bank. Has been a consensus long for intl small-cap managers. Specialist lender for factoring of state-related invoices. Story was high NIM and divi yield yet zero credit risk. Too good to be true $BFF.MI"
X Link 2024-05-10T08:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Chemist Warehouse new post by me. CW is Australias fast-growing profitable USD10bn retailer. Its backdoor IPO proxy Sigma trades now at implied 25x Jun26 P/E subject to ACCC approval risk. Fun https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/chemist-warehouse-and-sigma-healthcare https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/chemist-warehouse-and-sigma-healthcare"
X Link 2024-05-13T06:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Hollandpar91513 Post on Chemist Warehouse backdoor IPO is up. Top quality retailer valued at $10bn. Had you already heard about it"
X Link 2024-05-13T06:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This chart shows the growth trajectories of some of the greatest retail stocks of all time and Chemist Warehouse of Australia. Does it deserve to join the pantheon as it expands overseas New post by me - see bio for details"
X Link 2024-05-13T07:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@inverse_DK thanks for your Tweets on Chemist Warehouse / Sigma a while back. You were one of v few to venture a view on valuation Do you have thoughts up here I published a post on it today at link in my bio"
X Link 2024-05-13T07:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Sakata Inx with a big Q1 earnings beat and a new buyback. Global leader in decorative inks for beverage cans - they make craft beer look great. Stock up sharply in aftermarket. Still dirt cheap after a decade of de-rating. (I own.) $4633.T"
X Link 2024-05-14T10:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"SKAN ($2bn MC) is the #1 maker of isolators for bioprocessing. The products are pretty space-age: see pic below. SKAN was a hot & well-timed IPO in Oct [----]. Strange thing is that Skans parent co BV Holding was already listed Stock shot way up pre IPO. (1/2) $SKAN.SW"
X Link 2024-05-14T13:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"IPO just meant a change of name a new ticker a re-org of ownership and primary & secondary raises at a fancy high price. The Swiss authorities were unamused. An insider trading investigation has ensnared the chairman. He's stood aside pending investigation. (2/2) $SKAN.SW"
X Link 2024-05-14T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Britvic results are strong in the seasonally less important first half. Plenish plant-based range a big hit. London Essence keeps taking share from Fevertree in both hospitality & grocery I dont own on likely low LT growth. #BVIC #FEVR"
X Link 2024-05-15T06:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@MikeFritzell Ouch for a whole bunch of supplier stocks. China often used to be the high-margin region"
X Link 2024-05-20T14:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Shaftesbury Capital #SHC owns prime central London real estate esp in Covent Garden and Carnaby Street. $SHC.L new tenants serve as a barometer of global consumer brands on the rise feeling ambitious and opening new London flagships. Todays new tenants: (1/5)"
X Link 2024-05-23T12:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Alo Yoga has taken a Neal St store joining Vuori as a Covent Garden tenant on top of their recent London debut in Kings Rd. These buzzy US athleisure brands are going global taking share from $LULU (2/5)"
X Link 2024-05-23T12:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Elemis owned by LOccitane ($973.HK) opened what is surprisingly its first standalone London store. Nice for Geiger if Elemis picks up speed in private hands (3/5)"
X Link 2024-05-23T12:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Amer Sports Arcteryx just opened a big London flagship in April. The outdoor brand drove 44% overall growth in $AS Technical Apparel segment in Q1. (4/5)"
X Link 2024-05-23T12:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Shaftesbury announced Hokas first London store back in Nov22. This turned out to be predictive of a 150% subsequent move in $DECK (5/5) https://www.shaftesburycapital.com/content/dam/shaftesbury/corporate/new-build/doucments/news---media/financial-news/trading_update_-_1_november_2022%20(1).pdf https://www.shaftesburycapital.com/content/dam/shaftesbury/corporate/new-build/doucments/news---media/financial-news/trading_update_-_1_november_2022%20(1).pdf"
X Link 2024-05-23T12:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"PREVIEW: which $2bn Belgian leader has had a big lift from a new mgmt team Stock is on 8x P/E due to tough past & cyclical fears. Yet quality is decent w/ stable cash flows + real growth drivers Subscribe to Sweet Stocks for free to get the full post in your inbox tomorrow"
X Link 2024-05-26T11:05Z [----] followers, 18.4K engagements
"@memyselfandi006 I appreciate you providing no spoiler about de Zwevegemse oude dame. You are uniquely most qualified of all my followers to know the answer :)"
X Link 2024-05-26T11:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"In my view the far better profits and FCF under the new team are no fluke but an indicator of what is to come. Bekaerts Dramix for steel fibre reinforced concrete is a gem of a profitable growth biz. Hydrogen electrolysers give optionality. Much too cheap $BEKB.BR"
X Link 2024-05-27T06:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Aaargh - Bekaert got me by hiding a couple of items in the footnotes to the cash flow statement. Apologies for missing it Please see corrected free cash flow in image below: -12% vs my previous view. Forward FCF yield also 12% worse No change to conclusion but irritating @sweetstocksblog Hi Alex - nice write-up and interesting idea. One question - have you included lease capital payments in your FCF numbers I see the company are sneaky and bunch lease payments in payments on interest bearing debt on the cash flow statement. Hate that. @sweetstocksblog Hi Alex - nice write-up and interesting"
X Link 2024-05-27T09:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The post has now been corrected on the website for the free cash flow calculation (deduct lease payments & factoring interest charge). The accurate FCF yield is 12% lower at 8.5% rising to 10.5% rather than the initially claimed 9.511.7. Apologies"
X Link 2024-05-27T09:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Tiny Chemist Warehouse news: CW Ireland accounts to June [----] are out Sales doubled to 38m. Sales per avg store rose 19% vs CPI of 6.1% FCF was just -2m. Close to self-funding so early in the rollout Encouraging for UK entry prospects. ACCC news on June [--] $SIG.AX"
X Link 2024-05-27T11:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Victorian Plumbing still swimming through treacle. #VIC Profitable growth in market share is a carefully worded way to describe a slight fall in sales. The acquisition makes things tougher in H2. Patience required"
X Link 2024-05-28T06:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@HiddenValueGems πβ https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/sitc-the-ryanair-of-container-shipping https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/sitc-the-ryanair-of-container-shipping"
X Link 2024-05-29T06:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@rhomboid1MF Theres something very funny about lots of UK-only investors holding Bank of Georgia who would never consider owning say Bank of Lithuania or Bank of Moldova. The power of the LSE"
X Link 2024-05-29T07:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Frisky price action in UK estate agents. These are cash-generative models that could possibly attract a bid. #FOXT #LSL #WINK #TPFG #SVS LSL strong trading raised guidance and a new buyback. Complex but v interesting turnaround is bearing fruit. Is Simon Embleys Pivotal JV now including Charcol set to rival Mortgage Advice Bureau as a major broker network I own a sliver since last trading update #LSL https://t.co/O5m97SoG51 LSL strong trading raised guidance and a new buyback. Complex but v interesting turnaround is bearing fruit. Is Simon Embleys Pivotal JV now including Charcol set to rival"
X Link 2024-06-04T16:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Great Q4 print for $CASY. Two highlights: 1) Inside SSSG of 4.4% stays strong yet again; 2) the fuel margin is holding higher-for-longer with a better print than Murphy USA for latest quarter See my full write-up on Sweet Stocks site for more details - link in bio I hold"
X Link 2024-06-11T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Are #DFS holding a Dutch auction on their own FY guidance Back in March PBT was up to 25m or maybe 20m or maybe 16m given Red Sea issues. Now 12m or maybe 10m. Causes are delays freight costs and - not least - weak demand From here a bold way to play UK recovery"
X Link 2024-06-12T06:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"New Sweet Stocks post: Goodwin plc - breaking good I added up the seven growth drivers & got OP of 51m for FY26E. This would put the stock on 14.7x P/E A blue sky scenario at a later date would see 91m of OP or 8.0x P/E Do my estimates stack up Feedback welcome #GDWN"
X Link 2024-06-17T06:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"To view the full post go to Sweet Stocks on the other site. Link is in profile"
X Link 2024-06-17T06:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Spicy noodles update: Samyang Foods pulling away from Nvidia on YTD basis Denmark recalls Korean ramen for being too spicy π πΆ Now $3.8bn market cap $003230.KS $NVDA Spicy π₯π #Buldak #SamyangFoods $003230.KS https://t.co/uY48M5ljAI Spicy π₯π #Buldak #SamyangFoods $003230.KS https://t.co/uY48M5ljAI"
X Link 2024-06-18T11:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Saia is one where I like the business but my initial timing was poor As I mentioned on Twitter at the time I used the sharp fall to add to my starter at prices around $400 The recent monthly data & bounce were encouraging $SAIA https://x.com/sweetstocksblog/status/1782299886584463798 New by me: $SAIA $ODFL and the US less-than-truckload industry. Why are these special trucking stocks so good - like 1000% good - when trucking in general is so lousy And is it too late to buy Link in bio #oligopoly #ltl https://t.co/gRemctEewW https://x.com/sweetstocksblog/status/1782299886584463798 New by me:"
X Link 2024-06-19T13:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Urban Logistics REIT finished a tough year with flat earnings and divi and reduced vacancy rate from 7.4% to 5.8%. Planning to refinance debt and lift gearing from 29% into 30-40% range to buy more units at 6.5-7% NIY. It thinks EPS accretive from yr1. #SHED"
X Link 2024-06-20T06:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BInvestooor π (Not $APD which is on 21x as I see it)"
X Link 2024-06-23T19:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"which rise by 26m for a 109% incremental margin. This is highly unusual Clearly it is possible if big absolute falls in glass and shipping costs come through as hoped. My question is what other examples are there of quality cos growing sales 5% in any year 2/3"
X Link 2024-06-24T15:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"with a 100% incremental margin (Im sure there are many. But I couldnt find one after a bit of searching through peer results for last ten years.) 3/3"
X Link 2024-06-24T15:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fedex $FDX announces review of Freight (LTL) with a view to sell it. As foreshadowed by [----] reorg. Huge news for $ODFL $SAIA and $XPO Would FTC allow one of those to buy it outright"
X Link 2024-06-25T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Watches of Switzerland due a relief rally as they close out FY24 with no further shocks The reiterated guidance for FY25E puts the stock on a single digit P/E surely too cheap for the unique Rolex exposure - despite Bucherer sitn Rolex pre-buy scheme gaining momentum #WOSG"
X Link 2024-06-27T06:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TA Associates places a 5% stake in Auction Technology #ATG at just 525p a 5.6% discount. Still owns 12.6% A far cry from Sep21 when TA last slotted some at [--] Todays placing does not suggest TA has confidence in improvement. Overhang looms larger until they are out"
X Link 2024-06-28T06:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Jack Henry is todays post* The classy $12bn banking software specialist is the best kind of boring. Will sales grow 7% or will it be [--] / [--] Is margin target 25% or can it be [--] Shall I buy on 29x PE or wait for 26x If only all stocks were this dull $JKHY *Link in bio PREVIEW: which tech co has compounded EPS at 12% for [--] years despite relentless shrinkage of its customer base Tomorrow's Sweet Stocks post is a high quality business taking a contrarian approach in a tough market Subscribe now for free to get it in your inbox. Link in bio https://t.co/D57GvtVpjm PREVIEW: which tech co has"
X Link 2024-07-01T09:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MikeFritzell In fact it was US banking cores provider $JKHY. Nice biz that grows even as # of banks shrinks as still plenty left and they pay per account. Is there a Japan pureplay equivalent for the regional banks Might be something the traditional mega IT cos have stitched up"
X Link 2024-07-01T09:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Now taken a 100bp $JKHY starter position @ [------]. (Often I dont decide whether a name is a buy until I complete my research over the weekend Monday is first chance to buy after Ive already published the post.)"
X Link 2024-07-01T13:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"PREVIEW: YouGov is tomorrows Sweet Stocks post. What lay beneath last months shocking warning Why did YouGov grow so strongly in the decade before And is it a good buy from here Sign up now to get the post in your inbox for free tomorrow. Link is in bio #YOU $YOU.L"
X Link 2024-07-07T15:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Riccardino999 Certainly odd they didnt even mention debt level yet. Crucial info to come on July 31st"
X Link 2024-07-08T08:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Loungers FY24 results are strong with clean profits and cash flow emerging from the Covid & tax change confounders Outstanding execution from a strengthened team If can deliver 15% unit growth 5% LFL & 50bp margin progress pa then stock looks too cheap #LGRS"
X Link 2024-07-09T06:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@mascarosergi A $CTT truther Personally Im convinced that the alleged shenanigans on customs etc were well evidenced. Will be interesting to watch the next 6-12 months"
X Link 2024-07-16T06:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@F15JCM Is Hugo sold at Sports Direct Fact check: true. Mr Ashley likely to be busy hoovering up more shares as we speak"
X Link 2024-07-16T08:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@the1hustlehoff This is all great as long as the brand is still structurally healthy. (I personally have no fashion sense hard for me to judge) In UK we see Mike Ashley link as red flag Bear case is Ted Baker Esprit etc even if Boss v different"
X Link 2024-07-16T15:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@the1hustlehoff 1) He bought a 16.4% economic stake in BOSS 2) His past stakes in fashion / retail stocks have predicted poor performance Boohoo Asos Mulberry Game Digital N Brown 3) Sports Direct (sells Hugo clothing) has poor image as a retailer. Opposite of premium"
X Link 2024-07-16T16:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Here's how I calculate free cash flow at $BOSS The trend doesn't look healthy Hugo Boss follows Swatch and Burberry with a big profit warning a 14% downgrade to FY EBIT at midpoint UK and China called out as particularly challenging Tough times for premium clobber $BOSS.DE https://t.co/qHogApXh4q Hugo Boss follows Swatch and Burberry with a big profit warning a 14% downgrade to FY EBIT at midpoint UK and China called out as particularly challenging Tough times for premium clobber $BOSS.DE https://t.co/qHogApXh4q"
X Link 2024-07-16T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Genus trading update seems promising until Despite this in the penultimate paragraph Another profit warning this time for the year to June [----] where consensus previously assumed a sharp 27% recovery in EBIT Valuation was 22x FY25e pre downgrades #GNS"
X Link 2024-07-17T06:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A plastic-wrapped meat pie & a Red Bull for A$6 This counts as a special meal deal in an Australian service station There's a big opportunity for Viva Energy's OTR brand to bring better fresh food to motorists My full write-up: $VEA.AX https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/viva-energy-retail-transformation https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/viva-energy-retail-transformation"
X Link 2024-07-18T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Playtech shareholders might enjoy this Guardian article @ByRobDavies on the difficulty of conducting due diligence in online gambling firms #PTEC https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/20/a-53m-gamble-billionaires-firm-claims-it-was-tricked-into-buying-uk-online-betting-firm-that-was-worth-nil https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/20/a-53m-gamble-billionaires-firm-claims-it-was-tricked-into-buying-uk-online-betting-firm-that-was-worth-nil"
X Link 2024-07-20T15:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tortilla Mexican Grill deliver objectively poor news (-6% LfL sales a profit warning & higher debt vs prior expectations) in a relentlessly upbeat and self-congratulatory way. Congratulations I guess #MEX"
X Link 2024-07-24T06:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Rentokils Terminix is clearly tough going. The H1 highlights speak of the challenges: low organic growth poor sales rep retention weak lead quality low brand favorability The profit warning of 12m is oddly precise & rounds to just 1% downgrade. Beat low expectations #RTO"
X Link 2024-07-25T06:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BrokenMoats Yes - see my Substack article for details of FDXs size and market share vs the pureplays. Telling Brad Jacobs for example that he cant finance something is a bold statement New equity injections / merger with FDX retaining a 49% stake are possibilities"
X Link 2024-07-29T17:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BrokenMoats Thanks appreciate the input. What do you see as most likely future for FDX LTL Spin and trade independently Would it change strategy / trajectory in this case"
X Link 2024-07-29T19:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Croda warns on FY24 profits with new range c250-270m at today FX vs prior guidance 260-300m & consensus 272m The modest % downgrade may come as a relief as stock has already been weak & expectations low Cashflow & BS look fine w strong working capital inflow #CRDA"
X Link 2024-07-30T06:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"YouGov post-close update is due on Tuesday 6th Aug Thanks to all who reached out with feedback after my write-up Heres what Ill be looking for on Tuesday 1/ FY25e guidance. I hear #YOU has cut many jobs since the warning. This could help shore up profits for FY25 above"
X Link 2024-08-02T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"worst case estimates 2/ AI startup competitors are legion and inherently deflationary. Clear dilemma for YouGov to invest enough in new AI models itself or risk being left behind 3/ debt & balance sheet position: safe beyond doubt See my write-up for details. More on Tues. YouGov - feeling the squeeze. New post by me link in bio I enjoyed learning how #YOU works. But I didnt come close to buying shares here. 19x Jul25E is not cheap given big price competition info vacuum & debt Good luck to holders - PE bid is wildcard that cd come anytime https://t.co/H0TohG0cuU YouGov - feeling the squeeze."
X Link 2024-08-02T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BerkelKip Thanks I like what theyre doing but agree on over-earning. Plus Craft global potential is exciting but unproven So I am waiting a year or two to buy"
X Link 2024-08-05T06:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sweet Stocks coverage names have ranged from +22% to -20% for QTD in USD terms. See summary table below Average of -2.0% shows encouraging resilience vs the various benchmarks in line with our desire for downside protection at portfolio level See full write-ups at link in bio"
X Link 2024-08-05T15:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GFF down 21% on weaker margin in the garage door segment New post by me: Griffon $GFF Sanwa $5929.T and late onset pricing power in the US overhead garage door market. Why did US garage door makers suddenly start printing money And how long can it last Full post up now on Sweet Stocks. https://t.co/KsaDnZdpzZ New post by me: Griffon $GFF Sanwa $5929.T and late onset pricing power in the US overhead garage door market. Why did US garage door makers suddenly start printing money And how long can it last Full post up now on Sweet Stocks. https://t.co/KsaDnZdpzZ"
X Link 2024-08-07T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Has Fevertrees IR been phoning up sellside analysts to remind them that the weather in June was dreadful Several brokers have simultaneously cut estimates by mid single digit amounts. FT Alphaville used to call this the Vulcan mind meld #FEVR https://www.ft.com/content/35357aa2-c9dd-3f0b-8d2d-a704dff1b5bb https://www.ft.com/content/35357aa2-c9dd-3f0b-8d2d-a704dff1b5bb"
X Link 2024-08-09T10:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just caught up with Bloombergs feature on weight loss drugs in Kentucky. The writers got some great quotes. Americas weight-loss drug capital isnt Hollywood or Manhattan. Its Bowling Green Kentuckyand it wont be the last Ozempictown. Read todays Big Take https://t.co/brBViztZK0 Americas weight-loss drug capital isnt Hollywood or Manhattan. Its Bowling Green Kentuckyand it wont be the last Ozempictown. Read todays Big Take https://t.co/brBViztZK0"
X Link 2024-08-16T22:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BilskiMati Thanks do you see signs the category has peaked Which country / region are you thinking of"
X Link 2024-08-19T07:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nicotudes Btw your Gallup poll-based data for US adds up to positive sums of change This also matches reality of more drinking by older adults with the money to make premium choices For sure makes sense to offer no/low options as well. (2/)"
X Link 2024-08-20T06:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nicotudes Aperol is famously the lowest ABV spirit so benefits somewhat from no/low. To your point about its broader peers yes wine / rose and also beer. Agree Wild Turkey promising esp in Australia / Korea / Japan / other Asia I think"
X Link 2024-08-20T06:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Hays FY results are brutally bad as had been flagged. Three largest markets of Germany Australia and UK all terribly weak No colour on outlook as ominously too soon to tell how September may go Such an odd hyper-cyclical sub-sector. Is the recruiter model intact #HAS"
X Link 2024-08-22T06:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@capitaloptimism Right its always been highly competitive. So can I put you in camp await cyclical recovery nothing is structurally broken"
X Link 2024-08-22T08:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"PREVIEW: scaling The North Face Tomorrow on Sweet Stocks I profile the impressive and profitable owner of TNF brand with ambitions for global growth Plot twist: its not VF Corp Sign up now to get the post in your inbox for free. Link in bio"
X Link 2024-08-25T12:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Weak Q1 print from Brown-Forman -4% organic for July quarter. Includes Whiskey -3% Tequila -23% and RTD -4%. But guidance held for the full year and the stock is firm. $BF-B"
X Link 2024-08-29T14:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DaBao_ Thanks. Example HMLV customers are medtech diagnostic devices lab equipment EV chargers robotics niche industrial machines of all types. Tiny volumes high ASPs. The risk of switch supplier for mass production doesnt exist if there is no mass production"
X Link 2024-09-03T08:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"PPHE Hotels has refinanced a loan from [----] to [----] at a fixed rate structured so the new higher interest rate doesnt kick in until [----]. The result is a 2.8m saving in [----] before step-up in [--]. The debt equivalent of an initial rent-free period on a lease #PPH"
X Link 2024-09-05T06:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Linda Yates is founder of Mach49 growth incubator & author of 'The Unicorn Within' In Sep'20 she sold to Next15 for just $2m cash. & uncapped contingent consideration Then in Feb'22 a $400m contract win pumped c.c. to $300m; $50m paid out already Now contract gone #NFG"
X Link 2024-09-06T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"That's how to wipe out $500m of market cap in one day Commiserations to holders; caution to knife-catchers"
X Link 2024-09-06T09:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fevertree depends on tonic water for close to 60% of revenue What percentage of tonic serves are paired with gin Roughly half at a guess Diageo is the world's #1 gin producer by far: Gordon's and Tanqueray the top two brands Diageo's gin momentum to June [--] π #FEVR"
X Link 2024-09-12T08:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#FEVR cryptic warning decoded w/ clues from call: *FY24 brand growth cut from 10% to 4-5%. Due to poor H1 but also H2 cut fr 10% to 7-10% *GPM still +600bp yoy *90m overhead spend held *so prior 15% EBITDA guide no longer valid = c50m new EBITDA c.12% cut vs consensus Fevertree depends on tonic water for close to 60% of revenue What percentage of tonic serves are paired with gin Roughly half at a guess Diageo is the world's #1 gin producer by far: Gordon's and Tanqueray the top two brands Diageo's gin momentum to June [--] π #FEVR https://t.co/fMwkmmxauZ Fevertree depends on tonic water for"
X Link 2024-09-12T10:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MikeFritzell Ha A reliable source says "A 700ml bottle of gin costs [---] Philippine pesos or roughly US$2. The taste is a bit rough" So despite the same name it's a v diff product to Tanqueray I don't suppose they are pairing this with Fevertree and perhaps not with any other mixer"
X Link 2024-09-12T10:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MikeFritzell Gin is not any more expensive than other premium spirits. In UK & parts of Europe it simply got overhyped in 2018-19. Gin menus with [--] options in every bar. Huge bowl-shaped glassware. Took huge share and now giving that back to other drinks (like Aperol)"
X Link 2024-09-12T10:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Watches of Switzerland - time for the US #WOSG boom & bust in line w/ Covid luxury cycle is well known. The bull case from here is DD growth @ 10x P/E backed by Rolex for 50% sales I kick the tyres to engage w the bear case. Plenty cd go wrong. Yet value remains. I hold PREVIEW: watch out for tomorrow's Sweet Stocks write-up. It's time to tackle a controversial $1bn UK retailer. This name has been winding up investors but is it a jewel in the rough #mysterystock https://t.co/uKK5Q7dW6u PREVIEW: watch out for tomorrow's Sweet Stocks write-up. It's time to tackle a controversial $1bn UK"
X Link 2024-09-16T10:19Z [----] followers, 25.8K engagements
"Dramatic profit warning from Dometic Sweden's world leading appliance supplier to camper vans caravans RVs mobile homes etc Sudden deterioration is a poor read for RV peers but also for consumer cyclicals in general $DOM.ST $KTA.DE $TRI.PA $THO"
X Link 2024-09-17T07:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Barry Callebaut is responding well to a Barclays upgrade call with +6% increases to fwd EPS estimates on cost savings and combined grinding ratio (I'm all in favour of providing the full contents of the note More of this please π) $BARN http://Investing.com http://Investing.com"
X Link 2024-09-17T08:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bonus content on #WOSG - the time series of Swiss watch export data mechanical only by total value and by ASP Final datapoint with a small cyclical decline is the [--] months to July [----] Future devt is anyone's guess but the LT trend has shown decent growth (thanks to Rolex) Watches of Switzerland - time for the US #WOSG boom & bust in line w/ Covid luxury cycle is well known. The bull case from here is DD growth @ 10x P/E backed by Rolex for 50% sales I kick the tyres to engage w the bear case. Plenty cd go wrong. Yet value remains. I hold https://t.co/vFaWZ05Bbm Watches of Switzerland - time"
X Link 2024-09-17T17:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RodAlzmann @MikeFritzell Their ambition is amazing. I'm not a 'watch guy' myself so I lack intuition about how certain it is they can keep placing far more watches at higher prices year after year. What's your take The breadth of the brand is striking - ppl from all walks of life seem to covet it"
X Link 2024-09-17T18:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$NOTE.ST Swedish electronics contract manufacturer warns due to slowdown in customer demand esp in Comms & Greentech sectors New guide is 9% cut to FY sales / 18% cut to EBIT at midpoint Implies H2 cuts of double that ie chunky downgrades $NCAB.ST down in sympathy"
X Link 2024-09-19T10:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Fans of Volution will love today's 144m Australian acqn. Seems to be profitable and complementary to existing #FAN biz Resulting combined group exposure to Australasia is a punchy 30%. Favourable as they never have recessions down there. 1.7x gearing for two yrs π€"
X Link 2024-09-20T06:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@vodkaquickstep Thanks - Titon a name that meant nothing to me until now Are Volution getting big enough in their niche to start troubling any fussy UK / Aussie competition regulators yet"
X Link 2024-09-20T06:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"New on Sweet Stocks: Borregaard - an unbreachable moat This Norwegian puts the special into specialty chemicals. Converting Norway Spruce woodchips into [---] niche products sold at high prices worldwide Giving Beyond burgers their sizzle See bio for link to full note $BRG.OL"
X Link 2024-09-24T06:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@memyselfandi006 Last week's CMD video is a great watch. 1.25x speed available too π"
X Link 2024-09-24T07:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@themagicbakery $SOY probably makes some of the private label SKUs"
X Link 2024-09-30T20:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"New on Sweet Stocks - an update on WEB Travel Group and Webjet Good news: $WEB.AX expected re-rating arrived on cue Bad news: the August profit warning is stinking up the joint $WJL.AX has a central costs issue Full write-up with valuations for both new stocks at link in bio Three months later Webjet's demerger js effective. I will update shortly with valuations for the two halves. $WEB.AX $WJL.AX https://t.co/V4bRBYGu6A Three months later Webjet's demerger js effective. I will update shortly with valuations for the two halves. $WEB.AX $WJL.AX https://t.co/V4bRBYGu6A"
X Link 2024-09-30T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Big news today on Sigma's backdoor IPO merger with Chemist Warehouse. ACCC is consulting on three harmless concessions indicating a path to approval of the deal As per my original piece fireworks will ensue if deal goes ahead in a scramble to own CW $SIG.AX Chemist Warehouse new post by me. CW is Australias fast-growing profitable USD10bn retailer. Its backdoor IPO proxy Sigma trades now at implied 25x Jun26 P/E subject to ACCC approval risk. Fun https://t.co/UbfwYZngJv https://t.co/cXC5AyhKCi Chemist Warehouse new post by me. CW is Australias fast-growing profitable USD10bn retailer. Its"
X Link 2024-10-01T08:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"NCAB warns on sales and profits Inevitable after Kitron and Note's recent warnings EV chargers and Germany called out as especially weak Patience of growth investors now being tested. Is weakness only cyclical When is Europe's upswing coming $NCAB.ST NCAB of Sweden is todays Sweet Stock Fabless PCB supplier serial acquirer and ultra-niche high-mix-low-volume specialist that solves a dull but complex problem for its [----] OEM clients Valuation relegates it to watchlist for now For full write-up see link in bio $NCAB.ST https://t.co/epv5Ky3sOs NCAB of Sweden is todays Sweet Stock Fabless PCB"
X Link 2024-10-01T08:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Treatt has traded well in H2 overall +16% vs weak comp Traditional products have driven growth - especially Citrus (used in cleaning products etc) and Synthetic Aroma Meanwhile fancy next-generation cold-brew coffee flavour went backwards #TET"
X Link 2024-10-10T06:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Elementis say that the European Commission is reclassifying their Talc business as carcinogenic. They disagree. Not ideal They originally agreed to pay $600m for talc back in [----]. Candidate for worst UK acqn of recent years #ELM"
X Link 2024-10-29T07:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JimWall84 @EricUKInvestor @1James1n1 @rhomboid1MF Urgently need a full cash flow statement in my view. Recurring distributable free cash flow is the only possible solid ground beneath this. As you say the H2 FCF appears to have missed badly given the 14m net debt despite 25m patent receipt in May Six long weeks to wait"
X Link 2024-10-29T10:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Casey's preannounces a fuel margin of approx [--] cents per gallon for Q2 ended October [--] This matches Murphy USA in maintaining higher-for-longer fuel margins as marginal mom & pop gas stations suffer and are forced to price fuel high $CASY $MUSA"
X Link 2024-11-05T13:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Boom $SIG.AX $SIG Big news today on Sigma's backdoor IPO merger with Chemist Warehouse. ACCC is consulting on three harmless concessions indicating a path to approval of the deal As per my original piece fireworks will ensue if deal goes ahead in a scramble to own CW $SIG.AX https://t.co/rJYLo9RJAe Big news today on Sigma's backdoor IPO merger with Chemist Warehouse. ACCC is consulting on three harmless concessions indicating a path to approval of the deal As per my original piece fireworks will ensue if deal goes ahead in a scramble to own CW $SIG.AX https://t.co/rJYLo9RJAe"
X Link 2024-11-07T02:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Auto Trader says used cars are selling very quickly due to a shortage. .and that's bad news for its revenue model which is linked to stock levels as one of the levers. Hence a warning for FY25E though size of downgrade is not quantified here #AUTO"
X Link 2024-11-07T07:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MikeFritzell @DaBao_ David Webb perhaps an even better guarantor of quality on this register than the Japanese parent"
X Link 2024-11-12T09:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DaBao_ @MikeFritzell Fair enough about value traps. I guess I associate him with rigorous due diligence on governance so should guarantee basic honesty etc"
X Link 2024-11-12T09:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@bentan__ Depends on customer & application but when the existing product is qualified & definitively works but the potential new product is unknown then a big hassle factor to switching"
X Link 2024-11-18T11:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Strong results from Mitchells & Butler They see 100m cost impact in FY25e from six months' worth of NLW & NICs hike but still guide to "further profit growth in the year ahead" FY26e will have further cost pressures #MAB"
X Link 2024-11-27T07:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Motorpoint #MOTR has a complex & currently low-margin model: * 15.5k ASP & 7.9% GPM - [----] gross profit per car * [---] admin fee but scrapped post period end for transparency * Finance commission per car [---] - 'metal margin' was just [---] per car"
X Link 2024-11-27T07:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Loungers succumbs to an MBO at 310p. A bittersweet ending for minorities but understandable given market's apathy H1 results & robust outlook would have seen the stock rise close to offer level anyway Rollover option available but impractical for most #LGRS"
X Link 2024-11-28T07:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Loungers bid fight is on Pro: Canaccord (1.7%) Jupiter (selling) Anti: Slater (10.6%) AXA (3.8%) Gresham (3.9%) Downing (1.5%) : BGF (5.7%) Invesco (4.4%) Templeton (2.7%) M&G (2.7%) Blackrock (1.5%) Ruffer (1.3%) 25% to block one more institution needed #LGRS Scheme of arrangement requires 75% approval so a coalition of 25% (or realistically less depending on turnout) can block Fortress reserves the right to pivot to an Offer with an acceptance threshold at 90% or any other level they choose Scheme of arrangement requires 75% approval so a coalition of 25% (or realistically less depending on"
X Link 2024-12-02T13:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Victrex outlook statement unpacked: -volume growth potential MSD -PBT growth ahead of volumes -subject to 7-8m FX headwind -board has strong confidence only in LT FY24 PBT 59m so guiding flat after FX Consensus @ 74m will need to cut by double digits #VCT"
X Link 2024-12-03T07:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Watches of Switzerland with a heroic reiteration of FY guidance. Now requires c90m H2 EBIT after 66m in H1 For comparison H2 last year was 62m Plenty of big openings to support H2. but still a huge ask #WOSG"
X Link 2024-12-05T07:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#WOSG +16% on an in-line statement. Why 1) It was much too cheap. A warning was priced in but didn't come 2) The H2 profit run-rate implies big upside potential to FY26E. If 48p consensus goes towards 60p then we're still 10x 3) Bitcoin link to Rolex sentiment Watches of Switzerland with a heroic reiteration of FY guidance. Now requires c90m H2 EBIT after 66m in H1 For comparison H2 last year was 62m Plenty of big openings to support H2. but still a huge ask #WOSG https://t.co/IhZjEjOXzp Watches of Switzerland with a heroic reiteration of FY guidance. Now requires c90m H2 EBIT after 66m in H1"
X Link 2024-12-05T14:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MTCDBAIL Well it was fair value for him Talk is cheap actions more revealing If 310p was totally unacceptable then there would be no sellers at 304p. especially from those free of fund manager mandate constraints"
X Link 2024-12-06T17:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Domino's Pizza Group makes peace with its franchise partners. Includes 3-4m of 'direct incremental contribution' by #DOM in FY25 plus an extra 4-5m invested in cost base. Also 3m unmitigated budget impact Adds up to c9-10% profit downgrade #DOM"
X Link 2024-12-09T07:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SleepwellCap @dissectmarkets @InvestmentTalkk Aussie-listed peer Cettire $CTT.AX also likely a zero but currently still fighting it Matchesfashion RIP $MYTE Mytheresa to be last one standing of the group with the YNAP cash dowry and Richemont backing"
X Link 2024-12-10T16:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This article sheds light on $SPOT jump into profit - by promoting royalty-free music on background playlists 'project to cheapen music' 'Spotify rigged its system against musicians' 'I wonder how much these plays steal from actual normal artists one employee asked.' We've long suspected that Spotify was recruiting fake artists and juicing them in its algorithm and placing them on the most popular playlists. Liz Pelly collected the internal docs + other evidence to finally prove it. https://t.co/q4w1SbTqs0 We've long suspected that Spotify was recruiting fake artists and juicing them in its"
X Link 2024-12-19T19:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Loungers get a 4.8% bump to the cash offer from Fortress Well done to the Loungers institutional shareholders below who showed a minimum of backbone to extract the improved offer I guess deal now likely to sail through #LGRS Loungers bid fight is on Pro: Canaccord (1.7%) Jupiter (selling) Anti: Slater (10.6%) AXA (3.8%) Gresham (3.9%) Downing (1.5%) : BGF (5.7%) Invesco (4.4%) Templeton (2.7%) M&G (2.7%) Blackrock (1.5%) Ruffer (1.3%) 25% to block one more institution needed #LGRS Loungers bid fight is on Pro: Canaccord (1.7%) Jupiter (selling) Anti: Slater (10.6%) AXA (3.8%) Gresham (3.9%)"
X Link 2025-01-15T07:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"UK economy straws in the wind: πPrimark UK LfL sales -6.4% in last [--] wks while EU & US see strong growth π€Workspace lettings -12% as London SMEs give up & churn out π₯Chapel Down sales -5% English wine loses its sparkle #ABF #WKP #CDGP"
X Link 2025-01-23T08:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@LibrarianCap Valid points. But was striking to see the same Primark offering in growth everywhere else but shrinking in UK"
X Link 2025-01-23T08:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@xvrmdf Agreed. And what's more they've arguably given up the ability in future to sell the group to anyone except Molson Coors The US deal would act as a poison pill from what I understand"
X Link 2025-01-30T09:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yougov trading update is missing any numbers nor does it affirm whether the FY outlook remains in line with analyst expectations. Sellside will tell us the size of any downgrade CEO Steve Hatch succumbs to activist pressure after [--] months #YOU"
X Link 2025-02-04T07:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Fevertree downgrades are incoming for all three forecast years. Looks like brokers making c.35-40% cuts to FY25E & FY26E EPS & c.10% cuts to FY27E The prognosis for 2028E is positive but that's a long time to wait Diageo H1 gin organic sales -5% also unhelpful $FEVR.L #FEVR Fevertree's Molson Coors deal looks poor * issuing shares at lowest price in 10yrs not the long-hoped-for big premium * FEVR itself paying upfront towards extra marketing * big profit warning for [----] with jam from [----] on Was no better deal on offer #FEVR Fevertree's Molson Coors deal looks poor * issuing shares at lowest"
X Link 2025-02-04T13:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Insource ($6200.T $447m MC) is Japans workplace training provider. They do in-person & online courses both on-site and open seminars. 20% 7yr sales CAGR and 38% margin. Stock de-rated to 21x from c60x bubble rating on slowdown. Today re-accelerated to 20% yoy in Q2. Tasty"
X Link 2024-05-07T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"PEXA the $1.7bn Aussie digital conveyancing firm pushing into the UK will face competition from Coadjute which just raised 10m from Rightmove Lloyds Nationwide and Natwest. Tough for Australian investors to gauge if PEXA can win in UK PE bid rumours too. $PXA #RMV"
X Link 2024-05-10T06:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Preview: A VERY SPECIAL SITUATION. New Sweet Stocks post on Monday will profile a high-quality fast-growing $10bn retailer that is virtually unknown as an investment proposition outside its home country. Sign up to the newsletter now to get it in yr inbox - link in bio"
X Link 2024-05-11T17:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Paypoint results are impressive. 22% PBT growth & a maiden 20m buyback. Collect+ Parcel volume up 78%. Watch out InPost A viable future for Paypoint as the link between online & physical worlds. Looks too cheap to me #PAY"
X Link 2024-06-13T06:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@richard_borley @wheeliedealer The new holder Brett Blundy is Australian retail royalty. Accent Group (Aussie JD Sports) and Lovisa (cheap fashion jewellery) both strong performers under his stewardship $AX1.AX $LOV.AX"
X Link 2024-07-23T20:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"PREVIEW: could this Swedish sportswear brand become the next challenger to Nike My New Wave write-up coming tomorrow morning on Sweet Stocks Subscribe now to receive the full post for free - link in bio $NEWAB"
X Link 2024-08-04T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New Wave - vaulting to glory Now live my write-up of Swedens $1.3bn founder-controlled branded clothing wholesale success story Their Craft brand is following Hoka & On w/ specialty running shoes for trail and road Link in bio for full article $NEWAB PREVIEW: could this Swedish sportswear brand become the next challenger to Nike My New Wave write-up coming tomorrow morning on Sweet Stocks Subscribe now to receive the full post for free - link in bio $NEWAB https://t.co/xMTkDG3YUs PREVIEW: could this Swedish sportswear brand become the next challenger to Nike My New Wave write-up coming"
X Link 2024-08-05T06:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Qt the $2.5bn Finnish software platform for embedded device GUIs showed great re-acceleration in Q2 Partnerships with Qualcomm LG & unnamed major contract in June 43m trailing 12m FCF is not cheap but would quickly grow into valuation on current trajectory $QTCOM On days like this I wonder why I don't own Qt shares. Q2 revenue growth accelerated to [--] % and EBITA margin kept on expanding to almost [--] %. Both above consensus forecasts. Still catching up to do with a guidance of 20-30 % fx neutral revenue growth for the year. $QTCOM https://t.co/8BxuFHqKtV On days like this I wonder why I don't"
X Link 2024-08-08T09:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New Wave Q2 result is encouraging with +3% organic growth incl +10% for Sports segment However group organic sales -2% across H1 reflecting tough promo market 4imprints +5% for same period looks ever better in comparison $NEWAB #FOUR New Wave - vaulting to glory Now live my write-up of Swedens $1.3bn founder-controlled branded clothing wholesale success story Their Craft brand is following Hoka & On w/ specialty running shoes for trail and road Link in bio for full article $NEWAB New Wave - vaulting to glory Now live my write-up of Swedens $1.3bn founder-controlled branded clothing wholesale"
X Link 2024-08-15T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Castings warn on heavy truck demand Possible readacross to IMI Senior Concentric Georg Fischer"
X Link 2024-08-20T06:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Casey's Couche-Tard and Murphy USA all printed stable higher-for-longer fuel margins in the latest quarter. Onwards and upwards for $CASY and $MUSA while $ATD has bigger matters on its plate. See link in bio for my full $CASY write-up"
X Link 2024-09-05T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Robert Half is today's Sweet Stocks Mgmt are tenured from [----]. LT results have been excellent But the downturn is concerning esp after a long fall in placement volumes Are recruiters being bypassed by in-house hiring aided by LinkedIn & Indeed $RHI $PAGE.L $HAS.L $STEM.L PREVIEW: Sweet Stocks looks at midcap recruiters and staffers. These capital-light cash-generating models have clear attractions. Is now the right time in the cycle to get involved Has anything changed structurally for the worse Subscribe to get post for free. Link in bio https://t.co/ruh5tMWyLB PREVIEW: Sweet Stocks looks"
X Link 2024-10-07T15:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Fevertree's Molson Coors deal looks poor * issuing shares at lowest price in 10yrs not the long-hoped-for big premium * FEVR itself paying upfront towards extra marketing * big profit warning for [----] with jam from [----] on Was no better deal on offer #FEVR"
X Link 2025-01-30T07:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Katitas - flipping attractive. Japanese small caps are my guilty pleasure. $8919 https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/katitas-flipping-attractive https://sweetstocks.substack.com/p/katitas-flipping-attractive"
X Link 2024-02-19T17:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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