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@stevehou Avatar @stevehou Steve Hou

There are growing concerns about the US economy, with some suggesting that the AI capex spend is masking underlying deterioration. The economy appears to be becoming increasingly K-shaped, with the lower half struggling. Meanwhile, China is investing heavily in emerging technologies like EVs, reusable rockets, and humanoid robots.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance XXXXX% countries XXXXX% currencies #1011 travel destinations XXXX% technology brands XXXX% stocks XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% social networks XXXX% automotive brands XXXX%

Social topic influence ai 11.34%, china #2101, hou #8, all the 5.15%, inflation #194, export 3.09%, stocks 3.09%, 6969 2.06%, if you 2.06%, finance XXXX%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joequant @brad_setser @vkmacro @gdp1985 @jonsindreu @bigmagicdao @epbresearch @joelgombiner @tylermacro10 @bigbreakfastlob @sdav1986 @realroseceline @warrenpies @merrux @qcapital2020 @kalshi @stevematthews12 @why__knot @arielstulberg @leo_abstract

Top assets mentioned Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Amphenol Corporation (APH)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Remarkable how China just keeps selling to everybody"
X Link 2025-12-08T23:12Z 38.8K followers, 19.2K engagements

"The year is 2025. The great China watcher Michael Pettis is still obsessing about currency manipulation. The RMB has appreciated against the USD and depreciated against the EUR which transitively has strongly appreciated against the USD. Chinese direct export to the US went down and to the EU went up. And lots of people seem super upset. I have no idea how the IMF is supposed to have recognized that a depreciating currency rather than manufacturing efficiency that led to Chinas growing trade surplus if they say that at all. What I do know is that if one zooms out Chinas trade surplus vs the"
X Link 2025-12-11T09:43Z 38.8K followers, 26.9K engagements

"@bigmagicdao Which part That nostalgia for communism is returning"
X Link 2025-12-08T12:56Z 38.8K followers, 4086 engagements

"The biggest opportunity that I can see at this current juncture is solar energy. Agree or disagree"
X Link 2025-11-15T00:50Z 38.8K followers, 23.3K engagements

"Im genuinely bothered by this $140k national poverty line thing. The biggest ticket item in @profplum99s simple arithmetic of survival is $32773 childcare. If you are paying that much for childcare its not really a case of poverty as much as socioeconomic policy failure esp labor policy in dense urban centers. What this article spells out isnt really a poverty or even inflation problem but a textbook case of the Baumol disease: the labor intensive low productivity services sectors like childcare education and healthcare go up sharply in costs even as the real prices manufactured goods and"
X Link 2025-11-25T10:45Z 38.8K followers, 393.1K engagements

"Traditional finance doesnt treat volatility as always bad though It only treats uncompensated idiosyncratic volatility as bad. Systematic vol that comes with either beta or risk factor premium esp those with high expected Sharpe ratio is welcome up to personal risk tolerance I think retail chases vol through either high beta stocks or sometimes high idio vol due to a lack of access to cheap leverage and/or a demand for lotteries which trades off lower expected returns for potential high right tail returns. In the latter case thats more of a preference than irrational I guess"
X Link 2025-11-30T17:14Z 38.8K followers, 1597 engagements

"I didnt actually mean to sound pedantic. What I meant was this: say QQQ realizes XX% vol and ARKK realizes XX% vol by taking a lot of uncompensated idiosyncratic risks investors may be better off 1.5x or 2x levering up QQQ than going 1x ARKK. If a strategy has high Sharpe investors may indeed want to get twice the returns for twice the vol"
X Link 2025-11-30T17:58Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements

"Im ashamed to admit but Ive become decently bullish on funny coins into the EOY. May change my mind on a dime though"
X Link 2025-12-02T11:38Z 38.8K followers, 9053 engagements

"Agree with @VKMacro here that the aggregate US economy has been very strong since 2022 in spite of mfg having been weak/recessionary this whole time. Servicesmfg and svcs has been strong. So mfg doesnt really represent the cycle. Presently US economy esp svcs has been slowing down with a clearly slowing labor market. The fact that temp hiring which apparently has been somewhat correlated at mfg strength is picking up pace could anything incl a downward substitution of labor. Temp hiring instead of full time hiring"
X Link 2025-12-05T11:50Z 38.8K followers, 4476 engagements

"@WarrenPies Depending on the index one looks at it has decidedly broken out already :)"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:31Z 38.8K followers, 5202 engagements

"@WarrenPies That's the Bloomberg Enhanced Roll Yield Commodity Total Return index btw. :)"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:33Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@VKMacro Nice pun bar gold or gold bars"
X Link 2025-12-09T14:44Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@qcapital2020 But you pay for Gemini pro and Amazon prime"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:18Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements

"🚨Join me in person on Dec XX Thursday from 11:15 - 11:45 AM at Bloomberg Global HQ (731 Lexington Ave New York) for a discussion about we are using Bloomberg Equity Indices to drive ETF Innovation Register here:"
X Link 2025-11-25T22:16Z 38.8K followers, 58K engagements

"U.S. AI bubble will burst in five years"
X Link 2025-12-07T14:04Z 38.8K followers, 106.8K engagements

"@SteveMatthews12 @Kalshi Limits to arbitrage"
X Link 2025-12-09T23:27Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements

"I agree w Darios thesis in principle but I dont think the UST and US economic dynamics are a main cause of spiking UK yields at this moment. Like a corporate bond gilts are suffering from a crisis of confidence from its investors. They imply worse fundamentals than reality"
X Link 2025-09-03T11:10Z 38.8K followers, 3788 engagements

"Raise income taxes significantly on individuals making over $250k doubly so on those that could have kids but choose not to to heavily subsidize childcare. Who's in"
X Link 2025-11-25T21:02Z 38.8K followers, 242.2K engagements

"@YouJiacheng Why does WeChat have such low ratings on the AppStore"
X Link 2025-12-06T15:36Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements

"Baumol disease is fundamentally why all the developed economies seemed unable to stop the influx of illegal immigrants. We need them to provide stagnant labor-intensive services cheaply which led to the populist backlash. People want 1) higher paying jobs for native workers to keep up with inflation 2) lower (illegal) immigration and 3) cheaper services that has become secularly bigger share of consumption with prosperity but these are inherently self-contradictory asks. As countries grow more prosperous because of Baumol disease you can have a cost of living crisis even with low inflation."
X Link 2025-12-07T14:17Z 38.8K followers, 114.1K engagements

"EA is no longer the automatic default for smart people. I was honestly shocked (and am still honestly grappling) by the fact that EA was ever the default for smart people. I honestly thought it was a silly cultish idea that SBF had invented and also perished with him"
X Link 2025-12-09T20:29Z 38.8K followers, 38.8K engagements

"I want to preface by saying that I dont know anything obviously. But I dont think anyone else knows either beyond sheer speculation about the value and impact of AI. I think genAI is tremendously useful and promising but also remains deeply flawed. We are not on the verge of Terminator. All the AI maxi bros are basically either hallucinating or talking their own books by massively overestimating the timeline of progress and underestimating the efforts required to get there. They just seem to lack basic commonsense in a lot of their macro forecasts. My base case is that China will not beat the"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:22Z 38.8K followers, 24.9K engagements

"Jay Powell is a great Fed chair. We'll sorely miss him when he's gone this time next year"
X Link 2025-12-10T20:02Z 38.8K followers, 15K engagements

"Either what I said or Chinese imports being XXX% cheaper in Europe made all the difference"
X Link 2025-12-11T12:37Z 38.8K followers, 1770 engagements

"The Times are changin again. (The Biden admin really did do some really weird stuff.)"
X Link 2025-12-11T19:14Z 38.8K followers, 2368 engagements

"Should the Trump administration sideline all the China policy hawks and just go ahead with selling advanced AI chips to China"
X Link 2025-12-06T17:39Z 38.8K followers, 7812 engagements

"This tracks hard. I can see my (younger) self"
X Link 2025-12-07T14:00Z 38.8K followers, 8308 engagements

"Jevons paradox but for batteries"
X Link 2025-12-09T22:04Z 38.8K followers, 7472 engagements

"so your point is if the CNY had been allowed to float freely the last few years even with all the new investments and productivity gains through automation CNY appreciation would've offset it and made Chinese export less attractive as to result in no/little net gains in Chinese global export share"
X Link 2025-12-11T21:30Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements

""am very confident that w/o a weaker CNY aggregate export outperformance v global trade would have been smaller" That's just saying demand curve slopes downward and isn't perfectly inelastic Sure question is what elasticity Fundamentally I'm not sure what we are arguing here. Clearly you aren't arguing that the surge in Chinese export share is accomplished exclusively through currency depreciation. The "manufacturing effciency" is an essential ingredient here. So I'm not really sure what we are arguing at the end of the day. The attribution/decomposition isn't clean whatsoever. Like I said"
X Link 2025-12-11T21:44Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements

"A non-obvious second effect of the enormous AI capex spend may be that it's masking the deterioration of the US economy under the surface. While the aggregate economic stats may look just fine economy is becoming ever more K-shaped with the lower half of th economy struggling ever more in terms of keeping up with cost of living increases young graduates struggling to find jobs and credit card and auto loan bills pilling up. The seemingly non-negotiable enormous capex spending has also an underappreciated crowding out effect on the rest of the real economy. First the AI capex drives up input"
X Link 2025-11-02T23:43Z 38.8K followers, 1.7M engagements

"Some of you think Im wrong on just about everything. I want to just say you are absolutely right. 😂"
X Link 2025-12-01T20:06Z 38.8K followers, 4123 engagements

"🤔 which markets"
X Link 2025-12-02T08:55Z 38.8K followers, 12.8K engagements

"Saudis are in the game"
X Link 2025-12-02T21:20Z 38.8K followers, 2828 engagements

"👀 Damn I said I hadn't seen evidence that Congress Representatives trade stocks. Now I have"
X Link 2025-12-03T01:08Z 38.8K followers, 9038 engagements

"The US lost the war in Afghanistan with alien tech against a bunch of ragtag goat farmers armed with Soviet AK-47s. Think about that"
X Link 2025-12-03T02:49Z 38.8K followers, 2428 engagements

"Im sitting in a Tesla Uber with self-driving turned on. Its honestly a very odd feeling. Neither the driver nor I is driving the car. Its practically a Tesla robotaxi with a safety monitor"
X Link 2025-12-03T05:17Z 38.8K followers, 2646 engagements

"AI in France had its moment in the sun and quickly melted. English is hard enough getting Chinese AI researchers to learn and speak French is just impossible"
X Link 2025-12-03T11:33Z 38.8K followers, 17.2K engagements

"Noah has had plenty of bad China takes over the years. This one has to take the (moon)cake"
X Link 2025-12-03T17:20Z 38.8K followers, 20.2K engagements

"US stocks earned much higher returns over the last XX years than would be expected from a long run pov. What are the major ways or factors that led US stocks to surprise to the upside Often mentioned factors include: higher than expired profitability and growth rates of large cap tech cos; sustained and larger than expected fiscal stimulus funded by deficits"
X Link 2025-12-04T12:32Z 38.8K followers, 16K engagements

"Sooner or later everyone starts a macro newsletter on Substack. Heres the US department of state"
X Link 2025-12-04T13:12Z 38.8K followers, 8618 engagements

"Have you considered setting money on fire as an uncorrelated investment strategy Few"
X Link 2025-12-04T16:25Z 38.8K followers, 4489 engagements

"Well technically speaking hes wrong"
X Link 2025-12-05T13:42Z 38.8K followers, 3621 engagements

"Have you tried Mark all as read"
X Link 2025-12-05T21:17Z 38.8K followers, 4686 engagements

"Most assume AI will be disinflationary. Few have considered the possibility that AI worsens inflation because of Baumol disease"
X Link 2025-12-05T22:56Z 38.8K followers, 15.5K engagements

"Fascinating how the Scottish dominance of the British colonial trade in Southeast Asia in the 19th century almost exactly mirrors the tech startup founders in Silicon Valley today. History doesnt repeat but indeed rhymes"
X Link 2025-12-06T12:47Z 38.8K followers, 10.2K engagements

"Which accounts are the best to follow for US state capitalism and anticipating which companies/sectors the US govt will take strategic stakes in"
X Link 2025-12-06T18:00Z 38.8K followers, 5539 engagements

"Interesting twist of fate: the largest (by a hair) holding of US Min Vol ETF is Cisco which was the darling stock of the DotCom and is again a beneficiary of the AI buildout. Also on the list are Amphenol MSFT NVDA NOW CRM. There is just no running away from the AI trade :)"
X Link 2025-12-06T23:48Z 38.8K followers, 2893 engagements

"Awesome chart of the global distribution of AI human capital Great to see ETH Zurich at the top of the European group h/t: @__paleologo"
X Link 2025-12-07T13:21Z 38.8K followers, 3187 engagements

"Such is the times. Some truly weird stuff is happening in China: nostalgia for Communism is surging among the youths perhaps not dissimilar to some of whats happened in the West given an embrace of the far-right isnt possible or applicable. A video commentary of the 2017 Chinese film Youth has gone viral last few days (and swiftly taken offline by censors) after the video creator recoded a 1970s military-troupe love story as an allegory for the 1976 Gang of Four coup. Faced with a slowed economy offering fewer opportunities and in fact a job crisis Chinese Gen Z are now flooding video hosting"
X Link 2025-12-08T11:57Z 38.8K followers, 126.9K engagements

"Casual monday morning @TheStalwart east village sighting"
X Link 2025-12-08T13:18Z 38.8K followers, 20.5K engagements

""We will assert and enforce a 'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine." Is this a retrenchment out of necessity or a recalibration out of shrewdness Either way this seems like a big formal pivot to the US post-war (WW2 or certainly Cold War 1.0) foreign policy. What tickers"
X Link 2025-12-08T18:47Z 38.8K followers, 51.4K engagements

"Just heard @tracyalloway say we spent a decade talking about Shadow banking which we now call private credit. 🤯"
X Link 2025-12-08T22:57Z 38.8K followers, 20.1K engagements

"Can those who say that China only manages to dominate manufacturing exports by suppressing its currency and labor costs help me make sense of these two charts"
X Link 2025-12-09T00:44Z 38.8K followers, 41.8K engagements

"We are entering a low trust world. Low trust between ppl and low trust towards the govts. There will be a secular demand for decentralized "store of value"/identity/security. That's part of the demand for stuff like BTC. DeFi protocols will have value too. What are the best ones"
X Link 2025-12-09T12:57Z 38.8K followers, 6951 engagements

"At Odd Lots XX Year Anniversary Party"
X Link 2025-12-10T00:38Z 38.8K followers, 13.2K engagements

"The SBF saga made me realize that really strange silly incestuous things happen in rarefied elite academic circles just like the royal family. You just have no opportunity to let your dumb ideas be tested and challenged by oxygen"
X Link 2025-12-10T00:43Z 38.8K followers, 2888 engagements

"I think the whole effort of containing China by restricting its access to US tech by creating an elaborate crisscross web of sometimes mutually contradictory policies has been a chaotic expensive and ultimately futile performative exercise that diminishes US global standing"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:48Z 38.8K followers, 4996 engagements

"@gdp1985 Hmm that's like saying iPhones are made in Henan China. They are still Apple's to sell"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:12Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements

"Lunch at work"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:55Z 38.8K followers, 2535 engagements

"Jerome Powell's autobiography is going to be lit. 🔥"
X Link 2025-12-10T20:20Z 38.8K followers, 2657 engagements

"Do the numbers in this chart check out Whats a good solid number on the energy gap in the US"
X Link 2025-12-10T22:26Z 38.8K followers, 4686 engagements

"I found the one sentence from the IMF "press release" that "attributes" China's growing external trade imbalance which is certainly large to CNY's valuation. Ofc it's not a serious attribution exercise whatsoever. Just a throwaway line that's vacuously true. What the IMF release certainly does not say which @michaelxpettis asserts in his thread that it does is a relative comparison of the importance of CNY valuation vs China's "manufacturing efficiency". Ofc CNY valuation is a "contributing" factor. The question is whether it's X% or 95%. It's much closer to X% than 95%"
X Link 2025-12-11T19:29Z 38.8K followers, 11.4K engagements

"630am. Chinese uncles and aunties like to swim in the morning"
X Link 2025-12-12T11:32Z 38.8K followers, 3111 engagements