@secretlyaninja Avatar @secretlyaninja secretlyaninja

secretlyaninja posts on X about $rely, $unfi, $kitw, $wise the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks 42.06% finance 28.97% cryptocurrencies 21.5% currencies 6.54% countries 1.87% social networks 0.93% technology brands 0.93%

Social topic influence $rely #3, $unfi 11.21%, $kitw #1, $wise #5, wise #1412, this is 7.48%, $th 6.54%, $iwg 6.54%, biz 4.67%, up to 4.67%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @kingdomcapadv @raphisavitz @lipton7676 @andrewrangeley @capitalobserver @jakeallen3 @puppyeh1 @yellowjerseyprcom @kitwavecouk @cgfcom @moeliscom @sstapczynski @fincapital @ragingbullcap @1maincapital @trekbroker @nimchef @joinyellowbrick

Top assets mentioned Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Unifi Protocol DAO (UNFI) Wise (WISE) Team Heretics Fan Token (TH) United Therapeutics, Corp. (UTHR) Liquidia Corporation Common Stock (LQDA) Fiserv, Inc. (FI) Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) Cigna Corp (CI) 2131KOBUSHIDE (21) The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Western Union Co (WU) CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Ares Capital, Corp. (ARCC) Etsy Inc (ETSY) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) Clipper Realty Inc. Common Stock (CLPR)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Bought $NCDL @ $13.28 (26% discount to NAV). BDCs have been taken out to the wood shed after high profile corp defaults (First Brands Tricolor Saks etc). Seems like a classic case of throwing 👶 out with 🛁💧. Decent r/r setup w/ 12-24 month horizon imo. Thread 🧵 (1/n)"
X Link 2025-10-13T02:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ARCC BDC bellwether reported decent 3Q results. NAV increased +0.6% qoq to $20.01 & defaults ticked down from 2.0% to 1.8% (cost). This is far from a priv cap disaster investors were pricing in [--] weeks ago. $NCDL (& BDC) recovery continues. So far I bottom ticked it. 🤞"
X Link 2025-10-28T13:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$CI CEO see the value here. He bought $1 million worth of shares at $242. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318751/000131875125000004/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1762199272.xml https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318751/000131875125000004/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1762199272.xml"
X Link 2025-11-03T19:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$NCDL reported decent 3Q results. NII ticked down to $0.43/sh (from $0.46) due to lower interest rates as expected. NAV $17.85 (vs $17.92) and non-accrual 0.9% (vs 0.4%). Modest credit issues doesn't deserve 20% discount to NAV. Stock +10% since my purchase with more to go"
X Link 2025-11-04T13:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$UNFI mgmt clarified that they plan to do stock BB but it'll be limited to $25 MM until LR 3.0x due to credit facility limits. After that (expected some time this yr) it can grow to $138 MM. Love it. 🫶"
X Link 2025-12-17T22:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"With Sand Grove's latest buys the presumptive blocking group now has 24.57% of $KITW stock (Gumshoe Samson Rock Sand Grove Caisse GAMCO Trium Candriam) Live shot of the OEP partner who thought he could steal $KITW at 295p"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Sold $CI @ $281 for total return of 8% over [--] months since start of this thread. Not bad considering S&P [---] is flat. R/r still decent here but I needed the money to buy something else. Good luck to remaining $CI longs"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Sold my $UNFI @ $40.40 today +87% return since I started this thread [--] months ago. It's been a wild ride but very pleased with where I ended up. Onward to bigger and better things 🚀🚀🚀"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Company: $RELY provides app-based money transfer service for immigrants. Think online-native version of $WU & MoneyGram. It started with [--] corridors (US➡MX IN PH) which still make up 50%. Now offer 5300+ corridors 170+ countries [---] mil active customers"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Background: $RELY IPO'ed in Sept '21 @ $43. Was overvalued & price crashed -80% w/i [--] months. But underlying biz kept growing & the stock bounced around $10-$25. It's down from 52W high of $27 due to Trump & Spruce Point short report"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Industry: $RELY core C2C TAM (send volume not revenue) is $2 trillion which is expected to grow MSD. Digital co's (like $RELY) is taking share from legacy providers & growing 15-20% CAGR. $RELY has been a share gainer with revenue CAGR 43% since 2020"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Attractive feature of $RELY is sticky customers. Trust & reliability are VERY important to customers. Once they get comfy they tend to stick around. Customers acquired '19 & earlier still sending similar volume in '25. So big cohort in '23/'24 should pay dividends for long time"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Online platforms like $RELY have inherent operating leverage. Cost as a % of revenue all trending down"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Thankfully $RELY mgmt is responding to s/h concerns on SBC. New SBC will go from hell-no-dealbreaker to mildly-irritating over the next [--] yrs. This plus the fact that CEO has elected to forego new stock grants got me taking a fresh look at $RELY 🧐"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$RELY medium term guidance look both attractive & achievable. Rev growth in HDD (vs recent 35% CAGR) EBITDA margin 21% (15% now) EBITDA growth 35% CAGR. Assuming $40 mil capex 30% tax [---] mil s/o '28 FCF/sh could be $1.58. 12% '28 FCF yield for 30%+ grower looks too cheap"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If you don't wanna value $RELY on '28 figures use '26E. '26 EBITDA should be $310 mil. Assume liquidity needs=25% of rev ($480 mil). RC is $325 mil so excess cash=$320 mil. EV $2.4 bil or 7.9x. Way too cheap for secular 30%+ grower"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"You can see differences in geographies served. First map is $RELY second map is $WISE. $WISE doesn't serve many central/latin America Balkans Africa ME central/SE Asia. $WISE take rate is lower cuz its serves different customers"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Also $RELY believes stablecoins could be accretive to its biz. I don't know how much of that is real and how much is mgmt trying to counter short narrative. I'm personally skeptical that stablecoins will meaningfully move $RELY economics"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Catalyst for +64% upside to $21 could be mgmt delivering on its revenue growth (19% CAGR) earnings growth (30% CAGR) & gushing FCF ('28 FCF $380 mil or $1.58/sh). Hard to know when that'll happen but until it does mgmt can use ramping FCF to do accretive stock BB"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@RaphiSavitz Not surprising. Law of large numbers & end market growing 6% pa = no company can sustain 40%+ CAGR indefinitely. As $RELY's market share in core markets go from 4% to 12% growth will envitably slow. Mgmt plans new corridors (send from Saudi Arabia) but HDD is what we can expect"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Lipton7676 I thought $RELY addressed many short report points on its Dec investor day. For the rest I thought they were flimsy. Example: one $RELY director also serves as director on $ETSY which has been accused of selling counterfeits. I mean. c'mon"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Baillie Gifford filed a 13G today on $RELY disclosing a 5.58% stake. https://ir.remitly.com/node/11011/html https://ir.remitly.com/node/11011/html"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Presumptive blocking group against $KITW sale now up to 26.2% With stock trading consistently above OEP's price I expect a bump shortly. FYI blocking group=any fund that bought shares after deal announcement. Wouldn't make sense to buy at =295p if you thought deal was 👌"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$RELY reported YTD rev +31% yoy even though overall Mexican remittance market was -5% in [----]. $RELY can grow by taking market share from legacy providers + non market growth. Imagine if Trump is forced to ease up on crack down post midterm election https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-10/trump-immigration-policies-peso-to-drag-down-mexico-remittancessrnd=phx-economics-v2 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-10/trump-immigration-policies-peso-to-drag-down-mexico-remittancessrnd=phx-economics-v2"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Servile board at $HUM.AX released a letter that's nonsensical & pathetic. It doesn't explain why board entertained Abercrombie's low-ball bid for months without a standstill while $CCP.AX's higher bid went nowhere. Why board acquiesced to what looks like insider trading etc"
X Link 2026-02-12T02:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@AndrewRangeley @kingdomcapadv Will the catalyst be achieving FY26 EBITDA well ahead of Street estimates or is there a logical buyer for $UNFI (if so who) if it doesn't re-rate Or something other catalyst"
X Link 2025-07-21T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Robust revenue growth & decline cost margin have sent $RELY profitability 🚀🚀🚀🌛. with one VERY important caveat. These figures do not include the impact of SBC 😬"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Why investor skepticism on $RELY They might point to $WISE whose take rate is 0.5% vs $RELY's 2.2%. Surely price-sensitive customers will gravitate from $RELY to $WISE over time. No here's why"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Gap in take rates are largely due to serving different market segments w/ different customer needs. $WISE=developed market professionals $RELY=immigrants sending money to home countries. This means comparing $WISE & $RELY volumes is 🍎 to 🍊"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Example: $WISE customer might be a Swedish partyboi sending SEK➡EUR to himself ahead of Ibiza trip or Polish freelancer billing UK biz GBP [----]. $RELY customer is a Mexican caregiver in US sending $600 every month to for receiver to pick up cash at partner location"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$RELY customer sending smaller amount to emerging market currency cash disbursement for receiver all increase take rate vs $WISE customer sending large amount to developed markets transfer to online wallet. On 🍎 to 🍎 basis much of the take rate gap disappears"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Better comp for $RELY is $WU whose take rate is 3.2% (2.2% for $RELY). Despite uncompetitive fees $WU volume is still growing MSD & its remains 40% larger than $RELY. $RELY has taken a lot of market share from $WU but has a lot more left to go"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Last risk is Trump & his immigration crackdown. This is kept me from $RELY in the past. ➡ remains an important corridor so I thought mass deportation might be a big negative. But $RELY rev & volume +30-40% yoy YTD so looks like they are navigating well"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"So what's $RELY worth $WISE trades at 13x NTM EBITDA despite lower growth profile than $RELY. $RELY should trade at a premium but even at 13x $RELY stock should be $21 or +64% upside to my $12.82 cost"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@jakeallen3 Potential neobank competition is not persuasive to me. Thesis that cos enter-new-market-to-lose-money is something I see on twitter but not IRL. Neobanks have no cost advantage. Even if they enter big if they're like $WISE. W/d cash from Nubank incurs fee for receiver"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Bought $RELY @ $12.82. It's a secular growth fintech with inflecting earnings & mgmt that's addressing s/h concerns. Thread on my long thesis why I disagree with shorts and the roadmap over the medium term (1/n)"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Including SBC both EBITDA & adj. FCF would be embarrassingly negative for all periods except LTM. This is what's kept me from $RELY in the past. Like $SNAP $RELY has been a vehicle to transfer wealth from shareholders to employees"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Related risk for $RELY is stablecoins. This thread is getting too long so let me just say Ithis is similar to $WISE risk. Fundamentally different customer base. $RELY customer 🚫 crypto bros. Plus $RELY offers fraud protection cash disbursement etc that stablecoins do not"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"But the fact that the board put out this letter & moved Abercrombie out of chairmanship tells me that $HUM.AX board thinks it's losing to @puppyeh1. Good riddance. This board has been kowtowing to Abercrombie to entrench themselves. Time for new board with skin in the game"
X Link 2026-02-12T02:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The presumptive dissident group against $KITW sale now up to 18.7% (includes Gumshoe Samson Rock Caisse GAMCO Trium Candriam). Unless we get a high vote turnout it's looking increasingly dicey for OEP's low-ball bid. 😤👎"
X Link 2026-02-02T18:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I sent a letter to the board of $KITW objecting to the sale. If you agree with me please lob in an email as well. It doesn't have to be fancy; just enough to let them know that shareholders don't want to get lowballed. Quantity of emailquality. Co contact info to follow"
X Link 2026-02-02T18:48Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements

"Here's where to send your email to register your opposition to $KITW sale. Tell them to forward your concerns to the board: Corp PR: kitwave@yellowjerseypr.com CEO: ben.maxted@kitwave.co.uk KITW advisor: bhilliam@cgf.com OEP advisor: andrew.welby@moelis.com"
X Link 2026-02-02T18:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Sand Grove has entered the $KITW chat Now the presumptive dissent group is up to 22.02% well within reach of the 25% blocking position. Since vote turnout will probably be 100% we might already be there. 💪✊"
X Link 2026-02-03T15:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SStapczynski Live shot of LNG carrier owners"
X Link 2020-12-04T13:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@fin_capital The saddest/funniest part of this is that $UTHR is a public benefit corp that's desperately trying to keep a better drug off the market so that it can keep making more money than it deserves"
X Link 2024-02-22T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Meanwhile people suffering from PAH and PH-ILD will be denied superior treatment for [--] months that may prolong their life. How many additional memories could they make with their families if $LQDA were allowed to sell their product now Such a travesty"
X Link 2024-08-19T13:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"But this is a fire sale so let's assume 10x to 12x EBIT. That should generate $350 MM or 2x $RILY's market cap. Sure proceeds will be used for deleveraging not shareholder return. But the fact that a small portion of $RILY can generate such proceeds should garner attention"
X Link 2024-08-19T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Bought a half position in $NLOP at $30. Took a few weeks to build the position and I'm excited about [----] distributions. Shamelessly stole the idea from @kingdomcapadv (1/n)"
X Link 2024-11-05T15:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Decent $GOGO earnings today but you don't get a stock move like today (+35% so far) without panic short covering. Despite the huge rally MC is only $1.1 billion or 7.5x [----] FCF. And that FCF is long-tailed and growing. FV should be something 10x FCF"
X Link 2024-11-05T16:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Is it 13x FCF 17x FCF Reasonable people can disagree. But 7.5x FCF for durable subscription based FCF for $GOGO is not reasonable. Investors have discounted $GOGO for too long due to execution mishaps but that looks to be behind us. HDX launch imminent. Onwards and upwards"
X Link 2024-11-05T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ragingbullcap I think $CLPR high LTV makes many investors recoil & they don't realize debt is non-recourse. Hopefully upcoming asset sales highlights inherent value of NYC apartment RE & investors start doing SOTP analysis. Also Flatbush worth more given new agreement with NYC"
X Link 2024-11-07T04:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Anyone have a good view on why $TH (+9%) is lagging $GEO (+64%) so badly post election Arguably Trump win is better for $TH than $GEO given their massive spare capacity at Dilley TX. (1/n)"
X Link 2024-11-08T16:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Topped up $GOGO today at $8/share. Market still seems skeptical despite the fact that execution issues with LEO are behind them & HDX will launch imminently amid "unprecedented" demand from customers. Looking forward to HDX in 4Q and FDX & 5G in 1H [----]. 🛫🛰"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Feels like market is sleeping on $LQDA upside. Litigation has been going on for years so early investors probably exhausted. But we are so close Even without summ jud $LQDA will launch for PAH no later than May '25 and probably for PH-ILD as well"
X Link 2024-11-13T14:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"All early indications are that patients can tolerate higher dosage of $LQDA Yutrepia and prolong their lives vs $UTHR Tyvaso. Yutrepia should quickly gain market share. $LQDA salesforce is ready to charge"
X Link 2024-11-13T14:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"In the contract renewal announcement $TH notes that it has hired the former chief of Border Patrol under the Trump admin. She was awarded the Presidential Rank award so probably left on good terms. $TH looks well positioned to win long-awaited contract in 1H '25"
X Link 2024-11-18T13:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Started a new position on $NPK at $76/share. Thesis is simple: $NPK earnings should inflect starting 2Q '25 and could double by YE '26. This is the second idea I've stolen from @kingdomcapadv. Give him a follow if you want great ideas.💡 (1/n)"
X Link 2024-11-20T20:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Based on $NPK contract announcements I believe revenue will begin to inflect 2Q '25 and build rapidly from there. Since backlog essentially doubled from [----] to 3Q '24 not unreasonable to expect defense rev to double. Even if GM stable (21%) earnings should 🚀"
X Link 2024-11-20T20:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I'm gonna lay out my thesis for a European stock in honor of my newest follower (@CapitalObserver). He sounds like a long-suffering value investor (like me) so we can commiserate about our lagging perf. The stock is $IWG. It's cheap and I think there are [--] catalysts. (1/x)"
X Link 2024-11-24T17:20Z [----] followers, 24.2K engagements

"$IWG is cheap based on LTM performance. Its FCF (CFO - maint CapEx before WC) is $300 MM and $220 MM after growth CapEx. MC is $2.1 bil so FCF yield is 14% or 10% depending on which FCF you prefer. Pretty good I think. But it'll probably get better"
X Link 2024-11-24T17:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$IWG mgmt has been methodically laying the groundwork for such a relisting. Functional currency has been switched from GBP to USD in [----]. Starting [----] $IWG will switch from IFRS to US GAAP. I'm not aware of any relisting announcement yet but maybe 2026"
X Link 2024-11-24T18:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"To wrap it up here is the thesis. $IWG is cheap based on LTM financials. On top of that there are [--] multiple rerating opps: boosting cap return becoming cap-lite ambitious growth targets and relisting to US"
X Link 2024-11-24T18:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$TH: Reuters reports that "deporting a million undocumented migrants annually will require the government to increase its detention capacity 20-fold" https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-plan-use-military-deportations-should-stand-up-court-2024-11-26/utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=112624&lctg=626fe264f698c2cb0208a97a https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-plan-use-military-deportations-should-stand-up-court-2024-11-26/utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=112624&lctg=626fe264f698c2cb0208a97a"
X Link 2024-11-26T16:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Hunterbrook lays out the case against $UTHR nicely. $LQDA's summary judgment hearing is today. It's about time the court puts a stop to $UTHR's delay tactics for the benefit of long-suffering patients. https://hntrbrk.com/liquidia-trial/ https://hntrbrk.com/liquidia-trial/"
X Link 2024-12-05T17:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$AHT announced it's switching stock listing from UK to US. I expect similar move from $IWG by [----] to boost its valuation. $IWG has already shifted its reporting currency to USD and will shift accounting to US GAAP in [----]. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/ashtead-to-move-primary-listing-to-us-in-fresh-blow-to-londonsrnd=phx-markets https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/ashtead-to-move-primary-listing-to-us-in-fresh-blow-to-londonsrnd=phx-markets"
X Link 2024-12-10T12:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"But first a confession. I'm a dumpster diver. When I see a chart like $VTY my trigger finger gets itchy. I'm a reversion-to-the-mean sorta guy. It's been a consistent strategy for me (e.g. $AER $OMAB Fed Fund futures etc). So you should know my bias"
X Link 2024-12-14T17:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Homebuilding industry cannot keep pace with demand due to local resistance. Housing shortage is severe. Estimates are in the millions. This article says up to [--] million shortage and it lays out the industry problem nicely. $VTY https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-13/bats-newts-and-nimbys-will-lose-out-as-the-uk-relaxes-planning-rulessrnd=phx-economics-v2 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-13/bats-newts-and-nimbys-will-lose-out-as-the-uk-relaxes-planning-rulessrnd=phx-economics-v2"
X Link 2024-12-14T17:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"To recap $VTY is a fallen angel whose steady state economics works well as a decent compounder at current price of GBP 6.80/share. If mgmt is able to deliver on even a fraction of their med term target I'd make oodles of 💰. Key risk is "1-time" items"
X Link 2024-12-14T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$TH: $CXW stock +53% since election. $GEO is +82%. $TH is only +16%. $TH is a prime acquisition candidate for both $CXW & $GEO. Both are scrambling for detention capacity & their stock valuation make them good acquisition currency. $TH was marketed for sale early this year"
X Link 2024-12-22T13:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$TH: Trump planning [---] "shock-and-awe" executive orders on inauguration day including "setting up immigration detention facilities where migrants could be housed until they are expelled." Sounds like $TH Dilley TX facility will be in demand. https://apnews.com/article/trump-day-one-border-executive-actions-30f78c3c983ae74555f281446fe22710 https://apnews.com/article/trump-day-one-border-executive-actions-30f78c3c983ae74555f281446fe22710"
X Link 2025-01-13T01:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Still $IWG market cap of $2 bil compares very favorably against Industrious' $800 MM. Industrious only has [---] locations. $IWG's franchise segment signed [---] franchise locations in '22 [---] in '23 & [---] in 1H '24. [----] locations total (owned & fran). $IWG worth $2 bil"
X Link 2025-01-15T15:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Down day for $TH along with $GEO and $CXW. Maybe due to news reports that a Colorado military base will be used to detain deportees. I doubt that Trump will only use military bases for incremental capacity. Waiting for "big bill" for facility funding. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/colorado-military-base-to-house-migrants-as-ice-widens-crackdownsrnd=homepage-americas https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/colorado-military-base-to-house-migrants-as-ice-widens-crackdownsrnd=homepage-americas"
X Link 2025-01-29T01:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Started a new position in $CI at $280. Bot half before price started moving away from me. I was first introduced to $CI by @CapitalObserver but it ran up to $300 before I could get to it. Kept it on my watchlist and got another chance after crappy 4Q. (1/n)"
X Link 2025-02-02T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Another banger by @AndrewRangeley with @1MainCapital on $IWG. Highlights: [--]. $IWG at 7x '25 FCF which is consistent with my napkin math of 14% FCF yield [--]. On track for $1 bil EBITDA by '28 (from $500 MM) [--]. Builder owner survey show high satisfaction https://www.youtube.com/watchv=L5KzNCE4S1M https://www.youtube.com/watchv=L5KzNCE4S1M"
X Link 2025-02-02T20:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Started a small new position at $15.30 in $OCSL which is a BDC managed by Oaktree. Good margin of safety with purchase price at 19% below PF BV and 12.3% PF dividend yield. I expect 12-month return in excess of 20%. (1/n)"
X Link 2025-02-04T21:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$RMLFF $RML $GDRZF: Elliott bid 4.9x LTM EBITDA for Citgo. Yet in its activist campaign against $PSX it uses 6.3x [----] EBITDA to value refining assets. No Street est for Citgo '26 EBITDA but sell-side EBITDA est flat to growing for refiners. Even at 6.3x Citgo worth $9.5 bil"
X Link 2025-02-17T17:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$TH announced new contract win in non-gov't seg. $140 MM initial contract with $68 MM rev in '25. This is a nice 🍒-on-top but not the reason I'm in $TH. Still waiting for new Dilley ICE contract. This probably adds $22 MM to margin. https://investors.targethospitality.com/news/news-details/2025/Target-Hospitality-Announces-Multi-Year-Workforce-Hub-Contract-Advancing-Strategic-Diversification-and-Regional-Network-Expansion/default.aspx"
X Link 2025-02-18T14:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Started a new position in $FIS at $70. Took a beating post 4Q earnings. Buying after a dip like this is my bread-n-butter. Most of the time poor stock perf after bad earnings is well-deserved but once in a while I find a gem. I think that's the case here. My thesis below (1/n)"
X Link 2025-02-19T15:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$NPK reported strong growth with '24 EPS +20% yoy mainly due to Defense rev (+18%). But Def earnings only +12%. Also WC build for Def backlog will mean that $NPK will only pay $1 regular div and no special div. Probably means bigly growth in [--] but it still hurts. 😩"
X Link 2025-02-21T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$VTY: UK gov't to provide GBP [--] bil of funding for affordable housing. This is in addition to GBP [---] MM to increase builder labor supply and additional funding to come in June. Despite fiscal pressure UK committed to building more affordable homes. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-invest-2-billion-pounds-build-18000-affordable-homes-2025-03-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-invest-2-billion-pounds-build-18000-affordable-homes-2025-03-25/"
X Link 2025-03-25T17:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$BCHT latest mgmt slides say that final judgment on $57 MM verdict "expected in 1H 2025" which is basically next week. Also proceeds to be used for new water biz & for share buybacks. (h/t @TREK_Broker) https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_752e1fff552c53291b3b29051d196252/birchtech/db/230/2987/pdf/BCHT+June+2025+Investor+Presentation.pdf https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_752e1fff552c53291b3b29051d196252/birchtech/db/230/2987/pdf/BCHT+June+2025+Investor+Presentation.pdf"
X Link 2025-06-22T19:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Bought $UNFI y'day @ $21.66. I was going to organize my thoughts and write about it over the weekend but company filed a relevant 8K today so I'm gonna have to jump the gun and post about it stream-of-consciousness style (1/n)"
X Link 2025-06-26T21:36Z [----] followers, 27K engagements

"@kingdomcapadv So $UNFI stock does what you'd expect it to do: goes from low teens to $30. I missed out on major gains and was silently kicking myself. But I kept $UNFI on my watchlist. Then early June disaster strikes"
X Link 2025-06-26T21:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$UNFI mgmt announces cyber security breach and they decide to shut down IT systems. Customers can't order items electronically including many perishables. Grocery stores (including 25% customer Whole Foods) are out-of-stock and getting wrong items. Chaos ensues"
X Link 2025-06-26T21:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$UNFI stock takes a dive from $30 to $20 in short order. Market is pricing in at least $600 MM hit. In reality implied value destruction is even bigger because $UNFI 3Q was a blowout (announced at the same time as cyber breach). But for cyber its probably would be $35"
X Link 2025-06-26T21:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"So now $UNFI goes from a turnaround-execution story to an event-driven story. Will this cyber breach worth $600 MM I say no. Clearly there will be material hit and #s will be messy for next few quarters. But this will be in the rear view mirror a yr from now. Why"
X Link 2025-06-26T22:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$UNFI resumed operations within [--] weeks so liability if any is bounded. And mgmt body language suggested that the hit while material was nowhere near $600 MM. 2.5x lev target was brought forward to FY26 (from FY27). Wouldn't have done that if liab $600 MM"
X Link 2025-06-26T22:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"For customers what would shifting biz away from $UNFI accomplish Can competitors guarantee they wouldn't suffer cyber breaches in the future Of course not. It makes no sense to go thru the brain damage of changing distributors (potential loss of SKUs) for nothing"
X Link 2025-06-26T22:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"That was my thesis on $UNFI y'day. And today co filed an 8K which confirms it: (1) material impact for 4Q (2) cyber insurance "adequate for the incident" and (3) this incident will not impact its 3-year turnaround plan. If so $40 seems likely by FYE [--]. 🤞😬🤞"
X Link 2025-06-26T22:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I neglected to spell out why I'm targeting $40 for $UNFI. Here's the simple math. Mgmt expects 2.5x lev by FYE '26. I expect $150 MM debt reduction between now and then so I think debt will be $1.8 bil. That implies EBITDA of $700 MM (note LTM EBITDA is $579 MM so a big jump)"
X Link 2025-06-29T21:25Z [----] followers, 18K engagements

"If no deal downside is $0.44 -23% vs my cost. But I don't it'll stay there. The bid highlighted $HUM.AX's cheapness. RoE is expected to improve further. BoD have obvious ways to increase value by using excess cash ($113.6 MM or $0.22/sh) to buyback stock at 0.6x TBV"
X Link 2025-07-02T15:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$LQDA short interest up another [--] mil shares to [----] mil (25% of total) [--] days to cover. SI has doubled YTD. Some folks are betting HEAVILY that $UTHR will win litigation and/or maintain market share thru other means. I remain long $LQDA & am happy to take the other side"
X Link 2025-07-11T02:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I sold $OCSL at $14.60 for a total return of 1% including $0.89 dividends since I bought on Feb [--]. I was dead wrong about the upside case. But I bought it cheap enough to breakeven despite not working out as expected. Onward to bigger and better things"
X Link 2025-07-15T17:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Worth noting that Penaloza Alanis family owns 50% of $PINFRA. Paying up for voting rights was not worth it since the family has full control & I'm not sure about minority protection in so I figured better to get lower basis"
X Link 2025-07-18T13:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Lastly $PINFRAL's discount to $PINFRA used to be stable. But that changed in Sept '24 when $PINFRAL started closing the gap. I'm not sure what happened (maybe stock BB) but I expect it to continue since I don't think a massive discount is warranted here"
X Link 2025-07-18T13:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Another long $LQDA / short $UTHR report. This one has a prescriber survey that shows strong Yutrepia launch. Doesn't cover litigation much (see Hunterbrook post last Dec for better legal summary) https://www.bleeckerstreetresearch.com/research/uthr-lqda https://www.bleeckerstreetresearch.com/research/uthr-lqda"
X Link 2025-07-31T14:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Bought $FI at $133. It's -44% from Feb '25 high even though not much has changed. Maybe investor rotation from growth bros to value gnomes Regardless it's way too cheap with org rev +10% EPS +16% & 8% FCF yield with good S/H return policy. 🧵(1/n)"
X Link 2025-08-12T18:28Z [----] followers, 23.1K engagements

"Company: $FI has [--] segments Merchant & Financial. M (legacy First Data) allows merchants to accept credit/debit cards. $FI skews towards SMB which are more profitable than large retailers. F (legacy Fiserv) provides services to banks e.g. credit card proc Zelle payments etc"
X Link 2025-08-12T18:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Historically $FI reported DD org rev growth. Merchant is a HDD grower and Financial is a MSD. Blended it comes out to LDD/MDD. On top of good growth econ of scale has allowed $FI to report consistently growing margins"
X Link 2025-08-12T18:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"That would put $FI '27 EPS somewhere b/w $14.50-$15.00 or 9x p/e at my cost. In reality EPS will probably be a bit lower since stock price will be higher and co will have to pay $133 to do stock BB. It's a thought experiment to highlight how cheap $FI is"
X Link 2025-08-12T19:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Sold $NPK at $108 today for total return of +44% since I started this thread [--] months ago (including $1 dividend). Overall very pleased with performance tho div was less than expected & Appliances was more troublesome than expected"
X Link 2025-08-22T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@nim_chef Your trade makes sense to me though $ARCC's (along with $TSLX and $BXSL) valuation premium against the rest of the BDCs has been pretty persistent"
X Link 2025-10-28T12:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@kingdomcapadv TLDR summary for those of us without SA subscription"
X Link 2025-01-19T15:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I bought $KITW at 250p after shares took a dive following FY25 guidance cut. At 250p it's priced like a no-growth/melting 🧊 (9x forward P/E 6x EBITDA). I think that's way too cheap/pessimistic. My latest investment from my fav fishing pond. (1/n) 🧵"
X Link 2025-07-10T20:54Z [----] followers, 35K engagements

"Company: $KITW is a wholesale distributor for independent conv stores & restaurants in the UK with 40K SKUs & 46K customers. It's a consolidator in a fragmented industry where size matters with [--] acquisition in last [--] yrs"
X Link 2025-07-10T20:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"That 82% return in [--] yrs is only capital gains. $KITW's cap allocation policy includes dividends (45% payout ratio). At the moment div yield is 5% so TR could be 90%. Retained cap is used for acquisitions & debt repaym't both of which are accretive"
X Link 2025-07-10T21:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Liontrust sold another 4% of $KITW & are now down to 6% ownership. Probably headed to [--]. Recall that Liontrust's selling in '24 precipitated 1st stock selloff. They started with 17% ownership. Once gone unwarranted selling pressure should abate https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/kitwave/news/rns/story/rm766nr https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/kitwave/news/rns/story/rm766nr"
X Link 2025-07-11T15:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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