@Kevo0o0o0 Kēvo

Kēvo posts on X about stocks, inflation, fed, tariffs the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance cryptocurrencies stocks technology brands us election countries social networks exchanges automotive brands nfts

Social topic influence stocks, inflation, fed, tariffs, $alts, $wlfi, wlfi, fomc, crypto, powell

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @alt5sigma @worldlibertyfi @mattlevine @truthterminal @thestalwart @tracyalloway @andrewrsorkin @ritholtz @ptjofficial @sahilbloom @capykuro @groowut @onchainsorcerer @0xlawliette @vannacharmer @napoleonkapital @notpius @cliffordasness @boazweinstein @secgov

Top assets mentioned World Liberty Financial (WLFI) Rally (RLY) Billy (BILLY) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Solana (SOL) Gains (GAINS) Fwog (FWOG) Heritage Distilling (IPST) Popcat (POPCAT) Bitcoin (BTC) BOOK OF MEME (BOME) Dogecoin (DOGE) Ethereum (ETH) SBET (SBET) BITMINE IMMERSION TECH (BMNR) Aster (ASTER) DAIGE (DAIGE) Jason Derulo (JASON) Mother Iggy (MOTHER) Rocky (ROCKY) Mister Miggles (MIGGLES) Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"2/19/25 Equities Stocks breaking all time highs today continuing a strong week for equities. Fed minutes today showed that the Fed will continue to hold off on rate cuts until inflation cools further though some members noted that it may be prudent to pause or slow balance sheet run-offs. A possible end to QT As a friend in a GC noted this would not be the start of the QE that would add fuel to risk markets but could be an interesting sign that monetary conditions could improve. We have PMI data tomorrow as well as U Mich sentiment. Crypto $BTC showing some signs of bottoming on the back of"
X Link 2025-02-19T22:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"* $DAIGE not $DAGE"
X Link 2025-02-19T22:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@apatheticwhale $SHAKA 🤙 @ShareTheShaka A globally recognizable culture coin with the expressed goal of onboarding as many people as possible by sharing the coin with friends On Base chain with good distribution and interactions with @jessepollrk"
X Link 2024-04-12T03:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Crypto Market thoughts Week [--] (6/24/24)"
X Link 2024-06-27T13:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$POPCAT Entered this one smol (will look to increase once I free capital after evaluation of the portfolio). Swapped my $SOL for the position as it felt like good beta given strength of the chart and Binance rumors. Have been watching for some time (as well as $MOG) but was waiting for a breakout and retest to enter. I think for $MOG that was a bit easier for that stratey whereas $POPCAT felt like I would miss on a lot of upside before that point. Pretty tenous place to enter without much HTF support nearby but I think continuation in majors near term and wanted a starter position so I"
X Link 2024-06-27T15:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$VUNCE Same trade setup as $BURGUM. Polymarket pricing Burgum at 40% while Vance is 16%. Sized relative to odds on $VUNCE (vs $BURGUM). Since he's the dog here I'd probably look to de-risk heavily into the debate tonight. It's doing a lot of volume and appears to be the only JD Vance coin on Solana. Given that I could see it running pretty hard (maybe more so than $BURGUM) ahead of the debate. Entry: $600k mcap Exit (Up): Again $TREMP is the moving target but since he's a pretty big dog I'll probably mostly be out before the debate if given the opportunity. Exit (Down): Will ride this to dust"
X Link 2024-06-27T16:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$JASON I don't actually own this one but I might have to apologize to Jason Derulo -- I wasn't familiar with his game. Was surprised by how well the price had held up -- I thought it was a celebrity grift propped up by the bit that he was matching big buys that came in. But I started looking into his twitter and he's very charming (not surprising) and his video of his dad buying the token was very well done. On the surface it looks like he's running the "helping adoption" playbook and getting good engagement from players in the space. While I don't own $JASON this will make me check my prior"
X Link 2024-06-28T14:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$MOG Rotated a decent chunk of the portfolio (6%) into $MOG on Friday. Was essentially fully rotating out of a Social play. Pretty strong performance over the past week was undeniable and thought this would be one of the faster midcap names if prices continued to trend higher. In general the idea behind the rotation was to have more of my portfolio in stronger performing names and being comfortable taking smaller gains on a larger notional value. My original plan was to buy the retest of ATH break around 0.xx16 but honestly wasn't ready mentally to rotate out of the bag I ended up selling at"
X Link 2024-07-01T17:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BILLY The dog is cute. I saw this pretty late on the first day it launched ($0.018). I top aped 50% of full size and then re-bid most of my bullets on the retest of $0.25 (prior ATH). I did average up a bit as well. Currently 20% of my portfolio. I thought this was interesting because there was a ton of volume (I think like $25mm by the time I saw it) and the dog was cute. I've been trying to buy into things earlier if I vibe with them (even if I'm buying green candles) because I've noticed that these are the things I inevitably top tick once they reach some threshold where I think they are"
X Link 2024-07-02T18:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$MOTHER This backside has upside. This is probably my most high conviction position and is reflected by the weighting in my portfolio (30%). I think Iggy is going to continue to have strong presence in the space and has a lot of levers to pull to bring attention and value to $MOTHER. Here are some positives (though not exhaustive): - Zero rug risk. Iggy has tied this coin too closely to her own brand she absolutely cannot (and will not) rug this coin. There is the possibility of a slow rug but I don't expect that to happen anytime in the next [--] months. - S-tier marketing abilities. There is"
X Link 2024-07-02T18:59Z [----] followers, 44K engagements

"Crypto Market Thoughts Week [--] (7/8/24) Nonfarm payrolls came a little higher than expected (bearish rate cuts) but the market focused on the downward revisions for prior periods and higher unemployment rates. Probability for rate cuts in September went up 5% post numbers (to 75%) up 14% in the last week. Later this week we have CPI on Wednesday (8:30 AM EST) as the big datapoint to look forward to. Crypto markets really went from its so over to we're so back every other day through the weekend. Prices were so bad yesterday I just went to bed. I swear 70% of the time I do this prices are"
X Link 2024-07-08T20:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$VUNCE moving today. JD Vance is basically neck and neck with Doug Burgum on Polymarket at 30% each. Need to look into what happened there but still convinced that a VP coin will have a moment (despite PoliFi feeling tired at the moment) and am positioned accordingly"
X Link 2024-07-08T20:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$tub Frogs and dogs. Dog coins are king but if there is anything else that might take second place it's frog coins. $tub is a toad coin (I consider this frog adjacent) with content that makes me laugh and a dev (@Fenrir9_ ) I've been thoroughly impressed with. Frogs funnies and good dev. that's the basis of my hold. There was a $tub that came before this iteration that was a CTO (run by Fenrir) which hit an ATH of $2mm. The community team essentially had no budget but cooked an impressive revival nonetheless. The team then did a token migration that gave the team a marketing budget with which"
X Link 2024-07-09T03:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"7/9/24 Equities are positive once again. Nothing really on the data front but Powell is currently speaking to the Senate. Seems like he's just saying more of the same -- the Fed is going to be data dependent inflation is moderating and cutting rates too soon/much could stall progress on inflation. Crypto majors looking very good right now. $MOG bouncing nicely think I can continue to hold this one. Most of the other stuff I'm tracking looking pretty decent too. Emotions: Optimistic that we've bottomed generally happy"
X Link 2024-07-09T14:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"7/10/24 Equities grinding higher again. Powell still talking to the senate but otherwise don't think anything notable happening in the markets. Crypto markets rallied overnight but look to be retracing most of the move now. Really liked the $MOG move but a lot of stuff looking heavy now (i.e. $BILLY). Not involved but this $ROCKY thing made me chuckle. Good volumes but I faded at $6mm because I didn't really get it. Rock is certainly cuter now. I likely continue to fade (still don't see huge upside -- pet rock thing is pretty US centric so limits upside imo) but would consider entering on a"
X Link 2024-07-10T15:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Big dip on $BILLY overnight but bounced off that 4H "support" $0.09. Next place people seem to care is $0.06 so we either continue up here or go much lower. My lean is higher as the holder count has only gotten larger on this dip but I'm a bull at heart so take that opinion with a grain of salt. Dog is still cute imo"
X Link 2024-07-12T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$MOTHER The chart is actually looking more constructive than it did yesterday after the retrace of the pump (it was looking scary there for a moment). There are some pretty big holders clipping out and it is holding the $0.03 support nicely. If anything the attempted moves up indicate that there is demand to buy the token (for at least a momentum trade) but we need to work through supply of holders that are eager to be out of their positions. I'm starting to feel confident that the chart has bottomed (I also think majors have bottomed w/ the German government running out of coins within the"
X Link 2024-07-12T16:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Crypto Market Thoughts Week [--] (7/15/24)"
X Link 2024-07-15T17:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"7/15/24 Wild weekend. Equities are higher today despite softer than expected Empire Mfg data (although if you peel back the onion a bit it wasn't as bad). Of course we had the attempted assassination attempt on Trump on Saturday which I think all but solidifies his victory in November. The photo of him pumping his fist with blood coming down is have is easily a top [--] political photo of all time (and I can't say I care for the man that much). I think the implications of a Trump win are bullish for risk markets however a friend made a good point this morning that it depends on how forward"
X Link 2024-07-15T17:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BURGAM + $VUNCE I purchased more of these tokens over the weekend after the Trump assassination attempt. The VP tokens took a dive after liquidity started chasing Trump shooting memes and I thought it was a good opportunity to add to the VP trade -- Trump in my opinion was a lock to win the presidency and the nominee for VP would become the VP of the US. The plan was to hold both into the announcement today. I figured the announcement would be a 5x+ so the math to de-risk didn't make sense in my mind as both were trading similarly on Polymarket and I'd have to de-risk both equally (I assumed"
X Link 2024-07-15T18:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"7/16/24 Equities higher this morning. Retail sales numbers came in better than expectations. Also equities are just the greatest market in the world therefore only go up. Crypto looks great again this morning. Mt. Gox coins on the move and are now expected to be disbursed in 7-14 days (Kraken at least). Market initially sold off but bouncing nicely now. Will do a post mortem separately but the $VUNCE / $BURGUM trade turned out ok. Secured a small profit and riding a bit of unrealized but could have been a pretty big win if I had executed a bit better. $POPCAT strength is notable and I'll be"
X Link 2024-07-16T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BURGAM + $VUNCE Post mortem Ultimately think I did this about 75% as well as I could have but that extra 25% is the difference between a small win vs a home run. Returns: $BURGAM: 93% (fully realized) $VUNCE: 53% (half realized -- gains locked in I won't lose money) The good: - Cutting $BURGAM. I think I did a really good job exiting the trade when I did. I wasn't at my desk when the initial news dropped about the motorcade but I waited long enough to not sell the pico bottom. Price went up 100% in my face but went down to 99% an hour or two after I exited after the news was leaked. -"
X Link 2024-07-16T20:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Much appreciated I agree that the most interesting parts of the PoliFi trade are behind us (for all of the reasons that youve articulated). Trump will win the election in November and Biden is not a compelling candidate from which to play a narrative there is nothing interesting left to speculate on. Ill just ignore any events that happen from now until the election as theyve proven to be too PvP for me to make money"
X Link 2024-07-17T03:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@lyraly77 Lmao. Yea best to just sit out or just play small if one feels the need to gamble"
X Link 2024-07-17T10:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Update: Fully exited $VUNCE (+44%). I'm open to the idea that a community could form around a JD Vance token if one believes that he becomes the face of pro crypto messaging for the Republican ticket. However the r:r doesn't really feel as compelling and I will continue with my plan to ignore PoliFi going forward"
X Link 2024-07-17T14:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MIGGLES I'm not in this one and have admittedly midcurved this whole run up. The bull case for this is the idea that Coinbase are behind the coin and are pumping it in order to drum up interest in Base. I think the narrative is actually compelling regardless of the merits. However the bull case didn't click for me until it was $40mm and it is hard to buy here as I am not sold on it is actually Coinbase the low liquidity lack of cashtag and buying such a high market cap. I do hope that everyone prints on the coin and I think it would be bullish for the broader markets (at the very least for"
X Link 2024-07-19T15:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Stale but photos of the dev purchases (they are now fully out) and bubble maps after they sold:"
X Link 2024-07-19T21:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Addendum: As someone correctly pointed out in the comments Trump also said the phrase near the end of his speech last night at the RNC. I think there is a good shot that he continues to say it going forward and I'm betting that the market cares"
X Link 2024-07-19T21:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Crypto Market Thoughts Week [--] (7/22/24)"
X Link 2024-07-22T16:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"7/22/24 Equities higher this morning (tech leading gains). No material data but we have GDP Core PCE and initial jobless claims Thursday and PCE and U Mich Sentiment Friday. Big news over the weekend was Biden dropping out of the presidential race and endorsing Harris. I think this was the best outcome for Trump if Biden were to have dropped out of the race. Some like Harris's chances better than Biden but I still think Trump is the clear favorite and carries the election. I remain bullish risk. Crypto markets basically whipsawed over the weekend -- trading down heavily on the Biden news and"
X Link 2024-07-22T16:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$MOTHER All ass no breaks. The chart is finally in an uptrend and looks like an absolute snack right now. I have not sold even a single token and I have purchased more tokens on the way down. This remains my highest conviction hold and I believe the best is yet to come $1 $MOTHER is not a meme. What are things that make me bullish at these levels - Few casual holders. The chart had been consolidating around the $0.03 level for nearly three weeks. The chart is the story of many of the largest holders fully capitulating their positions into the tape. This is understandable as most were grave"
X Link 2024-07-23T02:17Z [----] followers, 78.5K engagements

"7/24/24 Equities getting absolutely taken out back at the moment. Some weaker housing data this morning but mostly just disappointing earnings (e.g. Alphabet and Tesla) are driving indexes lower. Really like how crypto majors are shaking off this move right now. Maybe good ETH ETF flows Maybe news that Harris might go to the BTC conference Unclear what is driving the outperformance but I like it. One note on the Harris BTC conference appearance. Should she attend (saw reports that she was going to decide yesterday but haven't seen any follow up) it would be incredibly positive. As someone"
X Link 2024-07-24T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"7/25/24 Mixed economic data this morning with GDP coming in much higher than expectations PCE higher than expectations and jobs generally in line. Equities initially took the net of data positively but are cratering as the market opens. Saw an article this morning about how Yen carry trade unwinds have caused some of the sell off in broader markets. CTAs and Macro funds also appear to be pretty long stocks (relative to historic levels) which people are pointing to for continued downside. Have seen at least a couple of pundits penning the case for the Fed to cut rates sooner. Sentiment is"
X Link 2024-07-25T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (7/29/24)"
X Link 2024-07-29T20:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"7/29/24 Stocks were looking pretty decent all day but ended the day essentially unchanged. Not a lot of data today but big week with Fed rate decision Wednesday JOLTS Tuesday initial jobless claims Thursday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Crypto recovering somewhat now but was looking dicey after a nice move overnight. The big news seemed to be US government moving BTC and the speculation that they would be selling coins soon. Saw some people saying that the DOJ had recently signed to use Coinbase as their custodian but we'll see what happens. My mid/small caps were absolutely obliterated"
X Link 2024-07-29T20:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"7/30/24 Equities weaker this morning. JOLTS higher than expectations and equities were weaker around the release but I'm not sure that really explains the move as rate cut expectations are still essentially unchanged (actually +4% higher in December to 93.4%). Some large tech names are down (i.e. NVDA and MSFT) but don't really see any material news there. Just regular way market volatility today I think. Crypto majors looking weaker but still continue they look fine on higher time frames. My largest bags of $BILLY and $MOTHER are weaker. $BILLY actually an interesting spot as it has put in"
X Link 2024-07-30T15:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$FWOG $BILLY + $BOME = $FWOG. I think this is a really fun and simple meme that has parallels to $BILLY and $BOME. The frog and ticker are cute (a la $BILLY) and there is an artist associated with the project (like $BOME). I wouldn't say I faded this one per se but it launched while I was sleeping and had run hard by the time I woke up. I didn't look into it much as I'd seen $FLOG flop the day before and missed the dip down to the $0.012 area. I finally looked at the twitter feed around the first attempted breakout around $0.023 and immediately vibed with the concept (another reminder that I"
X Link 2024-07-31T18:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"8/1/24 Stocks getting taken out back. Jobs and ISM came in softer than expected. Softer jobs data would generally be favorable for risk but the softer ISM data is more negative. A friend who is much smarter on macro stuff than me basically explained the situation as follows: Weak ISM data indicates a deterioration in the economy the rates markets are now pricing in a higher chance of a [--] bps cut in September (1.21 25bps cuts priced in today vs [----] 25bps cuts yesterday) because Powell at his presser yesterday said a 50bps cut would only happen in the event of a terrible economy risk markets"
X Link 2024-08-01T17:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"It would make sense however for $BILLY specifically holder count is quite good and growth metrics as I mentioned are also solid. Distribution of holders is also very good similar to the larger and older $POPCAT. I also think $BILLY has very good vibes in general and could still get larger exchange listings that would provide positive catalysts. A long way of saying: I think the dog is still cute and will remain so"
X Link 2024-08-01T18:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$MOTHER fuck you bears. buying more anyways. I've spent the better part of the morning buying more $MOTHER as a tactical trade. I think the set up here provides incredibly skewed risk:reward with clear invalidation. In fact I think it is one of the best trades one could take over the next 1-2 weeks. The basic premise is that I believe $MOTHER will be listed on a Tier-1 exchange later next week. I believe this because Iggy in a recent voice note (pinned in the telegram) said: 1) She received an e-mail from the exchange that included the announcement date and listing date 2) The listing will be"
X Link 2024-08-02T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Link to my recent bull case for $MOTHER: https://x.com/Kevo0o0o0/status/1815572032559686127 $MOTHER All ass no breaks. The chart is finally in an uptrend and looks like an absolute snack right now. I have not sold even a single token and I have purchased more tokens on the way down. This remains my highest conviction hold and I believe the best is yet to come $1 https://x.com/Kevo0o0o0/status/1815572032559686127 $MOTHER All ass no breaks. The chart is finally in an uptrend and looks like an absolute snack right now. I have not sold even a single token and I have purchased more tokens on the"
X Link 2024-08-02T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (8/5/24)"
X Link 2024-08-05T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"8/5/24 Big bounce from the lows on stocks after ISM data though still down tremendously on the day. ISM data came in better than expected maybe the economy isn't so terrible after all. USD-JPY unwind and Iran retaliation were front and center over the weekend and remain a focus at the beginning of the week. The USD-JPY carry trade unwind is the most compelling reason for continued downside imo. Conflict in the middle east also a concern but it seems like Iran are telegraphing their move enough that it will end up being a nothingburger. USD-JPY is only concerning to me because I have no idea"
X Link 2024-08-05T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Friday listing on $MOTHER based on Iggy's last voice message in the telegram. My guess is still Bybit. Praying the markets continue to look good into the end of the week"
X Link 2024-08-06T17:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$MOTHER Bybit perps listing announced. Would be shocked if there wasnt also a spot listing. Dont see it on socials or pinned in telegram yet"
X Link 2024-08-08T10:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"8/8/24 Really strong start to equities trading today. A relief after the rally yesterday faded with a lackluster Treasury auction. Softer demand = higher yields / rates on treasuries which is bad for risk. I did see some people point to the larger than normal corporate bond issuance yesterday as partially to blame for the weaker treasury auction. Market really taking off after the better than expected initial jobless claims print. The report tempers the impact of the much softer nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report we had last week and gives some credence to the idea that the NFP report was impacted"
X Link 2024-08-08T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"8/9/24 Stocks looking pretty solid here coming into the final hours of trading. Stocks now fully retraced the move from Monday. Nothing notable on the data front but next week we have PPI CPI and UMich sentiment on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday respectively. Crypto really moved overnight and sold off most of the day. Currently bouncing with equities. $BTC and $SOL both still look fine. $ETH still the laggard here. Small/mid cap stuff I'm in are varying levels of ok to good. Got smoked on $RTR yesterday took a -70% hit after being up like 2-3x. Really should have take out initial given how"
X Link 2024-08-09T17:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$MOTHER There was a holder that formerly had the second largest position in $MOTHER with over 20mm tokens. They started selling in earnest right before prices started moving up a month ago and had been unloading up until [--] hours ago. They are now out of tokens. 2%+ of total supply and $1.2mm+ of notional sell pressure. And it doesnt take much net buying/selling to move prices. Would think $MOTHER could really move if the broader market cooperates. Send it"
X Link 2024-08-13T20:48Z [---] followers, 24.3K engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (8/19/24)"
X Link 2024-08-21T17:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"8/21/24 Equities grinding higher after whipsawing a bit after the payrolls revision. The revision came in at -818k around the midpoint of estimates (600k-1mm) though still a very large headline number. Essentially no jobs were created in the past [--] months. It now looks like [--] bps is where we are headed for September (though a 35% chance of a 50bps cut). Powell speaking from Jackson Hole on Friday which will be the next big thing the market will look towards. $BTC and $SOL look ok on higher time frames though $SOL is looking weaker as the migration of liquidity to Tron seems to be taking"
X Link 2024-08-21T17:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"8/22/24 Stocks pretty week today. Seems like people are taking chips off the table ahead of Powell's speech in Jackson Hole tomorrow. Rates sold off (yields higher on the day) and the September probabilities for rate cuts dropped to 125% from 136% yesterday. Crypto a bit weaker with stock weakness but $BTC looks incredible right now -- it feels like we're on the cusp of breaking out. Hopefully we can reclaim $62.5k-$63.5k level and have a little froth in the market once again. $BTC breaks out drags $SOL up casino starts humming again who says no Small and mid cap stuff looks less bad today"
X Link 2024-08-22T20:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"8/23/24 Stocks higher on the day after Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. Powell confirmed that the Fed will cut rates although made it seem as though the Fed would move judiciously and continue to be data dependent (not surprising). It seems the Fed are no longer worried about inflation and are now focusing on job growth. Powell basically said all of the things I wanted to hear -- inflation doesn't seem like an issue we're getting rate cuts and they are focused on jobs. I think the final point was important in light of recent revisions to payrolls. Overall very positive for risk markets."
X Link 2024-08-23T19:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$CAT This is $BOME on steroids. A simple narrative (owned IP + potential to be the cat coin) backed by a good cabal (Floki + DWF + Binance) great looking chart and cornered supply. Not to mention ample liquidity for for whales to chuck size into in order to make quick multiples. With $BTC breaking out these are all of the ingredients necessary for an absolute cooker. I think this is one of the bigger layups going into the airdrop to $FLOKI holders on the 29th and I have sized accordingly. Positives that I see: - Near term CEX listing speculation. Binance is already confirmed to be supporting"
X Link 2024-08-23T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"8/28/24 Stocks were looking absolutely terrible until just now. Still down but no longer straight down. Again $NVDA (reporting after the close) is the only thing people care about. If the company puts out negative guidance or a cautious outlook it would probably be a local top for stocks. I still think large tech companies will be incentivized to overspend on AI capex in the short run so I don't think this will be the case. Crypto looking like various degrees of bad to terrible. Given how much we've sold off on essentially no news I could see the case for us re-visiting the lows (though I"
X Link 2024-08-28T19:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (9/2/24)"
X Link 2024-09-03T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/3/24 Stocks down a ton today. $NVDA absolutely smoked and down -2% post close. ISM manufacturing and Manufacturing PMI both weaker than expectations but not significantly so. VIX hit an intraday high of [--]. September is historically a bad month for stocks and saw something today that the first day of trading correlates with performance for the rest of the month (small 30-year sample size though). Not a great day. Lot of data the rest of the week but Non-farm payrolls on Friday is the big data point that people are looking towards. We are in a bad is bad regime so looking for prints that are"
X Link 2024-09-03T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/4/24 Equities ending the day lower after a weaker than expected JOLTS (showing a weaker than expected job market). Equities initially sold off but were higher an hour later only to give up ground throughout the day. Rates rallied post JOLTS and odds are showing a 144.2% chance of a rate hike in September or a [----] bps cut (vs 137.5% yesterday). Lot of data tomorrow (ADP employment initial jobless claims ISM services and Services PMI) but all eyes still on NFP on Friday. Nice recovery on crypto from last nights sell off. $BTC looks ok (though not good) but $ETH and $SOL looking pretty bad at"
X Link 2024-09-04T20:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (9/9/24)"
X Link 2024-09-11T21:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/11/24 Pretty wild day in equities today up +2.7% off the lows and finishing the day +1.1%. Equities sold off pre-market post the hotter than expected CPI print but rallied back into the open and then immediately sold off -1.6%. Honestly not sure what caused the rebound but it seems tech stocks carried the index higher. A weird move if I'm being perfectly honest. Not surprising given the CPI print rate cut odds declined to 117.5% for September (down from 132.5% yesterday) -- we are squarely in the [--] bps cut zone. Crypto looks significantly more constructive than late last week even though"
X Link 2024-09-11T21:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/12/24 Another strong day in equities with the rally pretty broad based (among large and small cap stocks). Claims and PPI essentially came in-line with expectations. Saw something about the PPI-CPI spread being positive and how this was positive for stocks as it is a good sign for operating margin outlook. Crypto continues to look solid piggybacking off the strength of equities. $BTC in particular is looking very good. $CAT and $FWOG continue to look strong. $MOTHER also looking pretty bottomed and I think it is a great short term play into Breakpoint given the attention Iggy will receive"
X Link 2024-09-12T20:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$MOTHER Motherland will take us to the promised land. Iggy is planning on announcing what Motherland is at her party in Singapore later this month. Official details are nonexistent but if you've being paying attention to her messages in the telegram chat there are clues as to what it will be. I believe Motherland is going to be a social platform with a gambling angle think of it as a combination of OnlyFans and Stake (the gambling website). A platform where creators could connect directly with fans where fans could connect directly with one another all the while having fun while gambling."
X Link 2024-09-13T19:01Z [---] followers, 76.3K engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (9/16/24)"
X Link 2024-09-16T20:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"9/16/24 Equities ended up on the day grinding higher after an initial sell off in the morning. Retail sales tomorrow but FOMC rate decision on Wednesday is the big item the market is looking towards. September rate cut now at 169% (vs 149.2% on Friday) [--] bps is now the favorite according to rates markets. Sell-side research houses now saying how the rate cut decision this week matters less than the forward path of rates and the general health of the market. Obviously this is true but I think tomorrow's cuts and the markets reaction to it will set the tone for where the market goes in the"
X Link 2024-09-16T20:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/17/24 Stocks finished up slightly on the day after briefly breaking ATHs. Retail sales came in better than expected in aggregate but core was more in-line with expectations. Rate cut odds dipped slightly to 165.8% vs 170.8% yesterday. FOMC rate decision at 2:00 pm EST with Powell's presser at 2:30pm EST. From everything I've seen people seem to think Powell wants [--] bps but needs to convince the rest of the committee. Rates markets slightly favoring [--] bps but definitely more of a coin flip. Either way if the market reacts positively to the decision I think we are game on until the"
X Link 2024-09-17T21:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/18/24 Stocks closing the day lower post-FOMC. Honestly would have thought the market would have been higher after the 50bps cut and generally dovish presser. Powell reassured markets that the Fed was not behind the curve and committed to not ever getting behind the curve. I think that is pretty powerful. Commentary on the economy seemed in-line with prior comments and as always the Fed will remain data dependent. I saw some talking heads take issue with Powell being adamant about the Fed not being behind the curve (and not admitting that he was making up for not cutting in July). And"
X Link 2024-09-18T20:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/19/24 Stocks faded into the close but an absolutely monster day nonetheless. This was the reaction I was hoping to see and I think we'll at least see a grind higher in risk through the election. Claims also came in better than expected this morning helping the case for a soft landing. Crypto also off the highs but looking very constructive at the moment. Would love to see $BTC immediately accept above $65k to break us out of this range but I think more likely we'll drift lower before making a push to that area. $ETH and $SOL no longer looking like absolute death though $ETH has a lot of"
X Link 2024-09-19T20:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/20/24 A weaker day in stocks but a decent bounce off the lows of the session. No economic releases today but it is a triple witching for options expirations. My views on risk remain unchanged -- I think higher until the election barring any significant misses on the data front (particularly NFP on 10/4). Crypto was looking incredibly good up until NY open following stocks down and not rallying with them to the upside. $MSTR announced another $500mm of BTC purchases which seemed to spook a lot of people in GCs I'm in as they attributed a lot of the recent move to the upside to their buying."
X Link 2024-09-20T20:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"9/23/24 Equities Stocks closing higher on the day. Flash PMI data was mixed but generally in-line with expectations. A lot of Fed members making comments today sparking some speculation of additional jumbo cuts before year end (though rate cut odds were little changed from Friday). Lot of data in the back half of the week with GDP Core PCE (q/q) and initial claims on Thursday and Core PCE (m/m and y/y) and U Much Sentiment on Friday. Crypto Majors looking pretty good though off last night's highs. $ETH the really surprising one showing the most strength of the three majors. Feels as though"
X Link 2024-09-23T20:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/24/24 Equities Stocks finished the day higher after selling off in the morning on the back of a weak consumer sentiment print. Rate cut odds also moved up now at 161.7% for November (from 153.9% yesterday) and 158.7% for December (from 146.3% yesterday). The Fed put in full effect. I thought the biggest macro item from today was the PBOC (China) cutting rates 50bps. The medium to long term implications are negative as it indicates weakening in the Chinese economy but the short term impact on risk markets is positive with the increasing of global liquidity. Crypto The last three 50bps rate"
X Link 2024-09-24T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/26/24 Equities Another positive day in stocks marking the 42nd record close of the year. Data today was mostly in-line to better than expectations: GDP coming in better than expectations Core PCE in-line durable goods orders much better than expected and initial jobless claims slightly better than expectations. Tomorrow we get personal spending additional Core PCE data and U. Mich Sentiment. Away from domestic data we had the Swiss National Bank cut rates and China pledge additional stimulus. The macroeconomic backdrop continues to be good for risk in my opinion. Crypto $BTC closed the"
X Link 2024-09-27T03:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/27/24 Equities A weaker day in stocks. Data came in supportive of additional cuts across the board coming in-line to "better" (i.e. more accommodative). Yields continue to come in and rate cut odds continue to tick up. We are still threading the soft landing narrative with the backdrop of loosening fiscal conditions -- Goldilocks conditions for risk. Crypto Crypto majors look very strong with $BTC holding above $65k at the moment. $SOL and even $ETH look constructive here. I really do believe we'll see continued strength in the near term. $MOODENG absolutely putting the trenches on her"
X Link 2024-09-27T21:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"9/30/24 Equities Stocks slightly weaker at the moment having recovered from a dip in the afternoon after comments from Powell at the National Association for Business Economics conference. The prepared remarks were in-line with prior comments however the market seemed fixated on comments during the Q&A where Powell indicated the Fed wasn't in a hurry to cut rates quickly. A pretty big dip in rate cut odds afterwards with November pricing in 135% (vs 153.9% on Friday) and December pricing in 141.1% (vs [-----] on Friday). Nonfarm payrolls on Friday is the next big data point and will likely have"
X Link 2024-09-30T20:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/1/24 Equities Down day in stocks after Iran launched its attack against Israel. My gut says that Iran will say that this show of force marks the end of their retaliation however I'm not sure that Israel will necessarily stop here. Not really an expert in this area so won't opine any further but obviously anything that leads to a full out war would be incredibly negative for sentiment. Economic data was mixed this morning though overall less good on the whole. JOLTS came in better than expected but quits came down giving mixed signals on the labor markets. ISM data was a bit weaker in"
X Link 2024-10-01T18:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/3/24 Equities Stocks finishing lower on the day though a strong finish into the close. Data this morning was generally positive with a slight miss in initial jobless claims (and services employment) but a large beat in the ISM services index (with the highest print since February) suggesting a firmer than expected economy. However positive data was overshadowed by uncertainty in the Middle East particularly as Biden seemed to suggest the US supported the bombing of Iranian oil production. NFP remains the key data point for the balance of the week. The dream scenario is we see an NFP miss"
X Link 2024-10-03T20:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/4/24 Stocks Big rally on stocks after the large beat on NFP and upward revision over the past two months. Overall a solid report showing a larger than expected growth in jobs lower unemployment rate fewer part-time workers and recently unemployed workers able to find jobs elsewhere. Rate hike odds plummeting after the report with November pricing in 106.3% probability (vs. 135% yesterday) and December pricing in 116.7% probability (vs. 131.6% yesterday). We are now solidly pricing in 50bps cuts for the balance of the year (25bps at each remaining meeting). Soft landing one time for my one"
X Link 2024-10-04T21:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (10/7/24)"
X Link 2024-10-07T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/7/24 Equities Stocks selling off late in the day on the back of continued tensions in the Middle East. Rates also selling off with the 10-year back above a 4% yield for the first time since late July. Rate cut odds continue to fall post-NFP with November down to 85.4% (vs. 99.8% on Friday) and December down to 106.1% (vs. 119.4%). There is now a question of whether we even get a cut in November. Increased global liquidity would of course be bullish risk assets however I wouldn't undersell a strong economy being bullish either. Crypto Majors continue to look constructive despite the midday"
X Link 2024-10-07T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/8/24 Equities Strong day for stocks mega cap tech leading the way. Treasuries slightly better bid on the day but relatively unchanged from yesterday. Rate hike odds also relatively unchanged. Not a ton on the data front but we have CPI Thursday and PPI and U Mich. sentiment on Friday. Crypto Continued weakness on majors today from last night though it looks like markets are generally finding a bottom here. Somewhat interesting PA as stocks were up only through the trading session. Not sure what to chalk this up to other than regular way volatility -- I would expect crypto to follow stocks"
X Link 2024-10-08T22:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/9/24 Equities Equities continue to look strong today. Nothing major on the data front other than Fed minutes. Seems like a bit of a nothingburger with officials agreeing that inflation is fading but that there is potential weakness in job growth. Rates continue to sell off and rate cut odds continue to fall -- we are now 100% for each of the next two meetings (81.5% and 97.2% for November and December respectively). CPI PPI initial jobless claims and U. Mich sentiment the data for the balance of the week. Crypto Just absolute jokes for crypto markets at this point as equities continue to"
X Link 2024-10-09T20:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/10/24 Equities Stocks finishing the day lower after briefly breaching all time highs in the middle of the day. Odd moves in markets with rates rallying (yields lower and higher rate cut odds in November and December) and equities weaker. We've generally seen stocks higher when rates rally as the market views further rate cuts as bullish. Perhaps the move was related to the mixed data from the morning. CPI came in higher than expected with supercore services coming in at the fastest rate since April. While initial jobless came in much worse than expected (though there seems to be an impact"
X Link 2024-10-10T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/11/24 Equities Stocks hitting new highs for the year (and look to grind higher into the close) though data this morning was somewhat negative. PPI came in on the screws for m/m figures but were hotter than expected y/y. Consumer confidence also dropped more than expected. Pre-market price action saw a negative reaction to the data but stocks sailed higher on the day. Looks like $JPM and $WFC had better than expected results and perhaps there is some optimism around earnings season. Rate cut expectations essentially unchanged for the balance of the year with November rising and December"
X Link 2024-10-11T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (10/14/24)"
X Link 2024-10-16T02:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/15/24 Equities Stocks finished weaker on the day with prices down only throughout the session. Laggards here were $NVDA and $ASML with the former down on speculation the US would limit chip exports and the latter down on a weaker than expected outlook. Rates slightly better bid on the day and rate cut odds essentially unchanged. Most meaningful data points for the week are retail sales and initial claims on Thursday. Crypto Absolute fake out to start the US trading session with a massive run up into an immediate dump. Seems like crypto mostly following equities on the move down."
X Link 2024-10-16T02:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"10/16/24 Equities A stronger day in stocks today and a broader based rally at that with [---] of the [---] S&P [---] stocks advancing. Druckenmiller on the tape today saying that markets are pricing in a Trump win (based on strength in bank stocks and crypto). Rates rallying slightly (yields down) and rate cut odds slightly lower in sympathy with the rate move. Hopefully data tomorrow comes in line and risk continues to march higher. Crypto Majors continue to look good here with $BTC continuing to inch higher. A friend who trades $BTC at a large TradFi fund told me that he thinks $BTC continues to"
X Link 2024-10-16T21:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/17/24 Equities Stocks finishing nearly unchanged giving back most of the pre-market gains. Economic data came in strongly this morning with both retail sales and initial claims beating expectations. Rates selling off post data with rat cut odds dropping particularly in December where odds are now 77.7% (vs. 90.7% yesterday). I still think fewer cuts is completely fine as the Fed has shown they are willing to cut more if needed and the economy is proving to be incredibly resilient (which should be a larger driver of sentiment for risk). Crypto Majors are still looking pretty solid here and"
X Link 2024-10-17T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (10/21/24)"
X Link 2024-10-21T22:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/21/24 Equities Stocks ended the day weaker but clawed back some of the late morning weakness. Earnings season is front and center with 20% of the index reporting this week. Rates selling off along with equities with the curve rising [--] bps. Rate cut odds fell with November pricing in 89.3% (vs. 94.6% on Friday) and December pricing in 72.2% (vs. 81.5% on Friday). Light data week with initial jobless claims and PMI data on Thursday and U. Mich sentiment on Friday. Crypto Majors took a dive after a strong weekend. Prices climbing back at the moment now near levels from Thursday evening for"
X Link 2024-10-21T22:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10/22/24 Equities Stocks finishing the day slightly lower though selling off a bit more post-close with some weaker earnings reports. Rates continue to sell off though rate cut odds did increase slightly on the day for the balance of the year. Still the recent trend has been for higher rates and lower expectations for rate cuts. Nothing really notable in TradFi markets today. Crypto Majors continue to look decent here with bounces off session lows. Again not much to note here. Finally exited my last clip of $BILLY and bought more $FWOG. Honestly I've just been holding this last clip to stay"
X Link 2024-10-22T21:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@SwiftTrader0 Thanks mate will give it a look. Whats the tldr"
X Link 2024-10-22T22:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"10/23/24 Equities Ugly day for stocks today with tech leading the way lower. Some news driving individual stocks but in general it feels like exhaustion after the recent rally. People likely taking chips off the table into the election as well. Rates continue to sell off inching yields higher. Rate cut odds essentially unchanged from yesterday. Initial jobless claims and PMI data tomorrow and U. Mich sentiment Friday. Crypto Majors taking the lead from equities though $SOL strength is pretty notable. Not sure what this is indicative of though a perps guy I know thinks its suspect given the"
X Link 2024-10-23T20:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"10/24/24 Equities Positive day in stocks. Initial jobless claims beat slightly and PMI data was mostly in-line. No real moves based on data and it seems like most of the moves were related to positive earnings (e.g. $TSLA). Rates mostly the unchanged in the front end though slightly lower in the middle of the curve. Rate cut odds ticked up slightly from yesterday. Crypto Majors and large caps looking pretty good at the moment. Small caps looking a little more dicey particularly those in the AI meta. Very nice move from $GOAT overnight with the Binance perps listing. Price coming off a bit"
X Link 2024-10-24T22:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (10/28/24)"
X Link 2024-10-28T21:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"10/28/24 Equities Equities finishing the day higher though trended down after the open. Earnings again are top of mind for markets as this is the busiest week for corporate earnings. Rates selling off slightly with yields now 3-4bps higher across the curve. A lot of economic data also to be released but by far the most important is Nonfarm payrolls on Friday. After that the only thing we care about is the result of the election next Tuesday. Things are trending Trump at the moment and ideally (for markets) we see a Trump win and strong Republican showings in House and Senate races. Crypto"
X Link 2024-10-28T21:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"10/29/24 Equities Equities finished the day a bit higher today. JOLTS data was actually weaker than expected but didn't seem like the equity markets cared too much about it. Rates rallied a bit and the curve was 1-2bps lower across the curve. November rate cut odds remain in the mid-90s but December ticked up to 80.3% (from 74.9% yesterday). GDP and PCE data tomorrow initial jobless claims Thursday and nonfarm payrolls (the most important data point for the week) on Friday. Nothing too notable about today in my opinion. Crypto We are so back (at least we were earlier). $BTC nearly breaching"
X Link 2024-10-29T22:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"10/30/24 Equities A weaker day in stocks with continued weakness post close. Economic data actually came in strongly with GDP beating expectations and PCE coming essentially in-line. However it looks like weaker corporate earnings are driving prices lower particularly after hours with a number of poorly received results ( $MSFT $META et al). Earnings beats breath has also weakened from April highs suggestion a negative outlook for earnings going forward. Rates selling off with the 2-year up [--] bps and the 10-year up [--] bps. Rate cut odds lower down to 93.9% for November (from 96.5% yesterday)"
X Link 2024-10-31T03:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"10/31/24 - 11/1/24 Equities Equities took an absolute beating yesterday driven (again) by disappointing earnings from tech giants. The end of the month also marked the largest monthly decline in treasuries as rate cut odds dropped significantly during the period. Equity markets are looking a little better today though trending lower since the morning. Nonfarm payrolls was a pretty hilariously bad miss on every headline number outside of unemployment rate. Some people are pointing to weather and strikes as a reason to view the print as just noise and price action post release would suggest"
X Link 2024-11-01T19:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (11/4/24)"
X Link 2024-11-04T23:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"11/4/24 Equities Down day in equities with some ups and downs along the way. Mostly seems like uncertainty playing a big part in the markets with news outlets now suggesting it may be days or even months before we know who the winner of the election is. Add to that the Fed rate decision on Thursday and there are a lot of reasons to take chips off the table. Rates rallying a bit from last week with the curve 4-10bps tighter. November rate cut odds inching up to 98.5% (from 97.2% on Friday) while December moved lower to 82.6% (from 84.9% on Friday). It seems like we're locked in for 25bps for"
X Link 2024-11-04T23:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"11/5/24 Equities Pretty solid gains in stocks today though I don't know that there is really any read through on what the election result will be. Stocks have gained in [--] of the last [--] election days with a median return of 0.8%. Rates were a bit mixed with the 2-year up slightly and the 10-year down slightly from yesterday. Rates were generally selling off until the afternoon which may have indicated some early optimism on a Trump win. Saw some people talking about currencies market moves Kamala stocks doing well (e.g. Solar) and $DJT declining as some indication of markets pricing in a"
X Link 2024-11-05T22:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"11/6/24 Equities Equity markets ripping on the back of the conclusive Trump victory. Rates selling off here (yields higher) as market participants are pricing in higher deficits from lower taxes and inflationary pressures from tariffs. Rate cut odds nearly a lock for a [--] bps cut tomorrow though December odds fell to 70.2% (from 80.6% yesterday). Favorable domestic economy and pro business policies on the come Send the markets. Crypto We are so back. $BTC making all time highs and the coins are all looking immaculate right now. Markets obviously loved the trump victory. I didn't really deploy"
X Link 2024-11-06T22:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"11/7/24 Equities Another strong performance in stocks today with markets reaching a 49th record high for the year. News for today was the Fed rate decision with the committee voting to lower rates by [--] bps. The decision highlighted that the labor market conditions have eased (good) but removed language about further progress on inflation (not as good as it signals heightened concerns about the pace of inflation). I didn't listen to the presser but am reading that it generally tilted dovish. Powell noted that the economy remains strong and didn't give any indication of what future rate path"
X Link 2024-11-07T23:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I AM ABOUT TO WALK INTO THE MOST ABUNDANT BALANCED WEALTHY AND SUCCESSFUL PERIOD OF MY LIFE. I NATURALLY ATTRACT GOOD FORTUNE AND I AM WEALTHY IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE. I GIVE MYSELF PERMISSION TO PROSPER AND I HAVE THE POWER TO BUILD THE LIFE THAT I DESIRE"
X Link 2024-11-08T19:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"11/11/24 Stocks Equities finished the day slightly higher. Pundits seem to be talking about the year finishing strongly given the optimism around a pro-business administration. Inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday could help to support sentiment as long as it doesn't come in too hot. Continued strong corporate earnings and tame inflation / employment and we could really just go up only forever (hyperbole of course). Bond markets were closed today so nothing to comment on there. Crypto We are going to win so hard we are going to get tired of winning. Another $BTC ATH with prices less than"
X Link 2024-11-11T22:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"11/13/24 Equities Stocks finished the day lower but seems to be more profit taking than anything. CPI actually came in on the screws with supercore showing slight cooling. Markets were initially bid up post numbers but slowly slid during the trading session. Rates were mixed with the 2-year rallying (lower yields) and the longer end of the curve selling off (higher yields). Rate cut odds jumped after the CPI print this morning with December moving to 82.5% (from 62.5% pre-CPI) and January moving to 32% (from 30% pre-CPI). I don't think we've beaten inflation but still good to see us not"
X Link 2024-11-13T22:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"11/18/24 Equities Stocks higher today but might not be more than relief from the sell off last week. News mostly focused on Trump administration appointments and the read through for the economy. Rates rallying a bit today with the yields up 1-4 bps across the curve. Rate cut odds essentially unchanged from last week. Crypto Majors continue to look solid though not without some volatility. $SOL the surprise outperformer inching towards ATHs of last cycle. $MSTR out with a monster $4.6b of additional $BTC purchases with sales of stock last week (and a $1.75b convert that likely gets upsized to"
X Link 2024-11-18T23:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I love $fwog and it remains one of my largest positions. @Groowut is a special frontman and the rest of the core team and community are among the best Ive seen. It is probably one of the only CT native coins that I could see having widespread normie appeal given the wholesome vibes and killer content. Rotations are killer and I attribute that to most of the recent weakness. However I have no reason to believe the coin fades into irrelevance. It will have its day in the sun again hopefully soon"
X Link 2024-11-19T00:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$GOAT is my highest conviction for the next two months. Think listings can take it 2-3x higher from here. Its probably good for the cycle but I plan on de-risking heavily in the near term as it is a bit overweight in my book. $PUPS $MOTHER and $DOGE (D.O.G.E) are also interesting longer term holds. And I think they are 4x-10x reasonable upside (with higher ceilings in manic scenarios). I have some other large bags that Im not wedded to but think will do well in the short run as Im bullish on the market and they have good narratives"
X Link 2024-11-19T03:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@zorixnft @BoredApeYC Congrats King @ongo_ai what do you think of this Zorix grail"
X Link 2024-12-02T12:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (12/2/24)"
X Link 2024-12-02T21:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"12/2/24 Equities Stocks closed higher today marking a 54th all time high for the year. ISM manufacturing data beat this morning and we had comments from the Fed's Waller that suggested more rate cuts to come over the next year. December is also a seasonally strong month for equities with the second highest monthly return greatest frequency of advances and lowest standard deviation of returns. Hopefully these trends continue this year. A lot of data for the rest of the week we have JOLTS on Tuesday ISM services Wednesday initial claims Thursday and nonfarm payrolls and U. Mich sentiment on"
X Link 2024-12-02T21:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"12/3/24 Equities Stocks closing slightly higher on the day. JOLTS came in better than expected showing job openings increased while layoffs eased. The big news story of the day was Korea declaring martial law though it was lifted later in the day. Some more job data late in the week with nonfarm payrolls the most important item (released Friday). In-line NFP and we set up well to grind up into the end of the year. I don't think rate cut decisions matter a ton as long as they occur (can happen in December or January or both) though we are trending towards cuts in both December and January."
X Link 2024-12-03T22:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"12/4/24 Equities Stocks with another positive day surging after the Powell interview earlier today. Powell noted that the economy was strong and while sounding caution around rate cuts didn't say anything to derail expectations for cuts in the near term. Data today was generally soft with ADP employment and ISM/PMI Services data coming in lower than expectations. The market however didn't care and we are really just waiting for nonfarm payroll data on Friday to inform how the balance of the year shapes up for risk markets. I suspect even a softer NFP number probably doesn't cool the markets"
X Link 2024-12-04T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@jeffythedon0 Other integrations would be great but I feel like this casino is make or break. I personally think it'll be amazing. Hopefully Iggy delivers and the market starts pricing $MOTHER like its the beneficiary of the casino's success"
X Link 2024-12-04T22:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"12/5/24 Equities Softer day in stocks lightly some de-risking ahead of nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. Initial jobless claims came in slightly higher than expectations potentially leading some to brace for a worse nonfarm print tomorrow. Rates were basically unchanged though odds for a December cut dipped somewhat to 70% (from 77.4% yesterday). Not a ton of noteworthy items outside of this domestically though France and Korea continue to be tenuous politically. We just wait for nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. Crypto Holy shit I'd basically finished writing and then the market just nuked. Hopefully this"
X Link 2024-12-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (12/9/24)"
X Link 2024-12-09T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"12/9/24 Equities Stocks lower on the day with a number of items likely driving things lower (de-risking ahead of CPI tomorrow Chinese probe on $NVDA and Syrian regime change). Rates were 3-5bps lower across the curve. December rate cut odds around 85% now (unchanged from Friday but +17% from Thursday). CPI the big data point for the week with Fed rate cut decision next week. I don't have a read here other than things probably setting up for a cut unless there is a horrifically hot CPI print. Crypto Really ugly day with over $1b of liquidations primarily in alts (seeing that 25% of alt OI was"
X Link 2024-12-09T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"12/10/24 Equities Stocks finishing weaker on the day with all eyes on CPI tomorrow. Still think that as long as it isn't horrific risk continues to move higher into year end. Rates selling off across the curve with yields 2-3 bps higher. December rate cut odds remain around 85% with a number of Fed governors advocating for a cut in December. Crypto Another nasty move lower this morning that is in the process of being reversed. If I'm honest it's pretty impressive that $BTC is able to hold in here without Saylor buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of coins each day. Speaking of the"
X Link 2024-12-10T22:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"12/11/24 Equities Strong day in stocks after an in-line CPI report this morning. December cut is now a done deal with futures showing a 95% chance of a cut. With CPI out of the way and Decembers rate decision a fait accompli the stage is now set for an end of year rally. Crypto We are so fucking back. $BTC is over $100k once more and looks to be gunning for the highs. $ETH and $SOL not looking bad at the moment as well. Funding reset and OI wipe and markets trending higher. I used to pray for times like this. On-chain feels like it's back. A lot of new runners and small / mid caps are in"
X Link 2024-12-11T21:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"12/11/24 Equities Lower day in stocks with a poor initial jobless claims number and higher than expected PPI weighing on sentiment. Rate cut odds still at almost 95% for December but evidently some doubt about the economic outlook after data this morning. Honestly still think we just go up through the end of the year. I'm not too shaken by the data today. Crypto Things looking a little weaker at the moment but given my bullish tilt until inauguration I'm not very worried about LTF weakness. Higher time frame most charts continue decent. The laggards I called out yesterday look iffy but will"
X Link 2024-12-12T21:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"12/16/24 Equities A higher day in stocks with some mixed data on the economic front. Services PMI was a solid beat while Manufacturing PMI and Empire manufacturing missing (with the latter missing by a wide margin). Still I'm not sure we're really seeing much read through on the data with respect to today's move. Fed rate cut decision Wednesday but with the market pricing in a 95% of a cut I don't think we'll see much of a reaction from the actual cut. The presser of course will give us a better sense for how Powell is thinking about the rate path and the economy more broadly. But I still"
X Link 2024-12-16T22:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"12/17/24 Equities Stocks giving back yesterdays gains. There was some retail sales data showed growth that came in stronger than expected though excluding autos and gas they were a touch lighter than expectations. FOMC decision tomorrow and as always the presser will tell us more than the rate decision. Crypto $BTC making a new ATH today but giving back all of the overnight gains. $SOL actually showing some signs of life and hopefully this wasn't just a one-time bump related to the $PENGU token launch. Speaking of $PENGU the launch started pretty poorly with someone pooling tokens before the"
X Link 2024-12-17T22:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"12/18/24 - 12/19/24 Equities Stocks down -3% over the past two sessions after a hawkish presser from Powell. Clearly nobody had been expecting this (myself included) given the vicious move down in risk. The curve is now 10-15bps higher now with the yield curve the steepest it has been in [--] months. Markets are now pricing in fewer than [--] cuts for next year lower than the Fed dot plot from yesterday showed. My quant said this is terrible for risk in the near term and if my portfolio seems to agree with that (rip). PCE tomorrow is the last meaningful data point for the year and if today's print"
X Link 2024-12-19T22:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"12/20/24 Equities Stocks with a nice bounce here on the back of cooler than expected PCE. U. Mich inflation expectations also coming in lower today and along with PCE are giving the markets some relief that inflation may be bad enough to cause a hard pivot on monetary policy. Crypto Majors bouncing nicely off the brutal move down overnight. A lot of leverage taken out of the system with Zaheer noting that alt coin OI on a coin basis was at levels prior to the Trump victory. At worst I am hoping we just range around here and it would be fitting for us not to hit the $90k area that I know a lot"
X Link 2024-12-20T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Very compelling case for a re-rating of $HAT with near comps trading at much higher valuations The $HAT Thesis - Why Top Hat is a 1b project sitting below 50m @TopHat_One is one of the most undervalued AI projects yet it's - the #1 AI platform on Solana with over [----] launched agents - #2 in mindshare behind aixbt and - has received engagement from the likes of Elon. https://t.co/MIRjpGRDLv The $HAT Thesis - Why Top Hat is a 1b project sitting below 50m @TopHat_One is one of the most undervalued AI projects yet it's - the #1 AI platform on Solana with over [----] launched agents - #2 in"
X Link 2024-12-31T15:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@capykuro /ocb_on_top"
X Link 2024-12-31T17:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (12/30/24-1/3/25)"
X Link 2025-01-02T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/2/25 Equities Equities closed the day lower marking the fifth straight day of losses. Data today was generally positive with initial claims and continuing claims lower than expectations and manufacturing PMIs better than expectations. ISM prices paid tomorrow may give some insights into inflation but probably won't move the needle very much in terms of market outlook. Crypto Majors looking constructive here with some nice bounces from the end of year lows. I think if we close dailies around these levels we probably look pretty solid going into inauguration. A lot of really nice bounces"
X Link 2025-01-02T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/3/25 Equities Stocks finishing higher on the day with the index closing +1.25%. Economic data read positively for the economy with ISM manufacturing beating expectations and closing in on expansionary territory. Prices paid also were higher than expected which may indicate future inflation. While the economy is showing signs of strength there is the worry of growth and inflation being too high for the Fed (read: hawkish). And Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said as much with his comments around upside risks to inflation and growth today. Unsurprisingly we saw treasuries selling off today"
X Link 2025-01-03T21:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (1/6/25-1/10/25)"
X Link 2025-01-06T21:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/6/25 Equities A nice rally in equities for a second consecutive day though the index gave back nearly half it's gains starting mid day. Some weaker economic data in the morning but didn't seem to impact the market at all. Seeing some comments by bank analysts on the rally saying that a strong economic backdrop institutional inflows a lack of selling by trend following funds and dip buying may fuel a continued rally in the near term. A lot of job market data this week with JOLTS tomorrow Initial and continuing claims Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls of course being"
X Link 2025-01-06T21:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Other than $MSTR my de-risking doesn't really have to do with me thinking market top at inauguration. I'm just trying to secure the bag after having run it up the past few months. I do think however that we locally top (or cycle top) Q1 and want to be fully out of the market by March. I think seasonality will remain undefeated and we get a slow summer. But before then I am optimistic that things will get much frothier and that there will be a lot of opportunities to make money. No opinion on levels to get back into the market after the summer. Just a vibes thing in order to get back involved"
X Link 2025-01-06T23:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"1/7/25 Equities Rough day in equity land with the index selling off after JOLTS and ISM data this morning. Data showed a more resilient than expected job market as well as signs of economic growth. Of course this seems bullish but markets are more focused on the rate cut path which is now expected to be slower. There were also more inflation fears with the ISM prices paid printing its highest level in nearly two years. We have some more employment data tomorrow with ADP employment and Initial jobless claims. Friday's nonfarm payroll report however is the one we're really looking at. A hot"
X Link 2025-01-07T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/9/25 Equities Equities closed today in observance of former President Carter's funeral. Half day in bonds as well where we saw rates generally unchanged from yesterday. NFP will be the big item for tomorrow though my macro friend thinks that CPI next week will be a more important factor for where markets will go near term (given the reaction from ISM prices paid earlier this week). Crypto Another ugly day for coins after news broke yesterday that the DOJ had gotten the green light to sell confiscated Silk Road $BTC. Saw some conflicting things on what the DOJ report meant in the last 24"
X Link 2025-01-09T22:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Didn't realize Jup had a front-end to use Circle's CCTP. You can basically transfer $USDC cross chain without fees and zero slippage. The bridge from Solana to Ethereum mainnet only took a few minutes -- much quicker than expected. https://jup.ag/onboard/cctp https://jup.ag/onboard/cctp"
X Link 2025-01-09T22:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/10/25 Equities Equities closing down 1.5% today after a much hotter than expected NFP print (with higher gains in payrolls and lower unemployment) and higher than expected U. Mich. inflation expectation this morning. CPI next Wednesday is more important for risk but the stronger labor market and higher inflation expectation do not help the case for lower rates. We are now pricing in [---] cuts for the balance of the year from [---] cuts before the data this week. A very sharp drop in expectations from the market. Crypto A surprisingly strong day for crypto with $BTC retracing most of the move"
X Link 2025-01-10T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/15/25 Equities An incredibly strong day in stocks today after CPI came in cooler than expected. While the headline unadjusted numbers came in right on the screws core consumer prices (which exclude food and energy) came in lower than expectations. The 0.2% rise in the m/m figure marked the first step down in six months and gives the Fed reason to believe that inflation is cooling. The yield curve was lower by 10-15bps across the curve and the market is now anticipating nearly [---] cuts this year compared to close to [--] cut at the end of last week. Crypto We are so fucking back. $BTC broke"
X Link 2025-01-15T23:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/17/25 Equities Another strong day in stocks with the index up a little over 1% at the moment. There was some data this morning but nothing particularly notable. Other than the inauguration most of the big data points for the balance of the month come in the ending days of the month (FOMC rate decision GDP Core PCE). If Trump isn't just bat shit crazy with day [--] executive orders there aren't many reasons in the near term (outside of earnings) for markets to throw a tantrum. The treasury curve is 2-3bps lower than my last post a few days ago but interestingly rate cuts are slightly lower at"
X Link 2025-01-17T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (1/20/25-1/24/25)"
X Link 2025-01-22T22:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/22/25 Equities Pretty strong start to the week with the market rallying nearly +1.5% in the past two days. Some strong earnings driving the performance but nothing else obvious driving prices higher from a macro perspective. Not much changed in rates land either with the curve 1-2 bps lower than last week. Pretty light data week but next week we have FOMC on Wednesday followed by GDP and Core PCE on Thursday and Friday. A dovish press conference from Powell and good growth and inflation prints will do wonders for the markets. Crypto An absolutely wild ride the past few days with pretty"
X Link 2025-01-22T22:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@WatchdogBB Unfortunately he cannot. The Fed are meant to be independent from government interference. If anything Powell may be less inclined to cut if Trump tries to pressure him into doing so imo"
X Link 2025-01-23T01:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@0xjbaptista I hadnt seen that before I posted but it doesnt Chang my opinion on on-chain $DOGE vs $DOGEAI. $DOGE is static and likely doesnt anything to get Elons attention while $DOGEAI could"
X Link 2025-01-23T01:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"1/24/25 Equities A weaker day in stocks but a strong start to the markets after Trumps inauguration. A slew of worse than expected economic readings today but I don't think those really drove the market today with prices trending lower hours after the releases. Next week as mentioned before is the big week for economic data with FOMC rate decision GDP and PCE. Praying for a dovish presser from Powell. Crypto We're so back it's so over it's kind of uncertain A pretty wild couple days with speculation for an SBR yesterday morning on the back of a cryptic Cynthia Lumis tweet (which ended up"
X Link 2025-01-24T21:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"2/3/25 Equities Lower day in stocks after Trump talked up tariffs on Mexico Canada and the EU late on Friday. Trump appears to be walking back some of the tariff rhetoric with Mexican tariffs delayed by at least a month and reports of positive conversations with Canada. It seems most now view tariff talks as negotiating tactics that are not expected to last long if enacted. Still the implications of trade wars are certainly a negative risk to markets. Meanwhile manufacturing data this morning came in better than expected and are now showing expansionary trends for the economy. We have JOLTS"
X Link 2025-02-03T22:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"2/5/25 Equities Stocks finished the day higher despite weaker earnings. Data was a bit mixed ISM services missing expectations though still reading expansionary. A silver lining would be the priced paid print which came in much lower than expected (though still quite high). As I've said before a lower prices paid number generally reads positively for inflation (i.e. lower inflation). We have initial claims tomorrow and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Crypto Crypto a bit worse for wear with majors looking a bit limp especially when we compare to equities. The digital assets presser was a let down"
X Link 2025-02-05T22:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"2/6/25 Equities Stocks finishing the day higher rallying sharply into the close. We're off a bit in the aftermarket post $AMZN earnings but still positive from yesterday's close. Payroll data tomorrow is the next big data point and whisper numbers of more than 200k are coming in higher than avg. survey levels of 176k. But because of the wildfires and seasonality these numbers could be noisy. Crypto Majors are looking pretty limp at the moment and it feels like we slowly bleed into the lows of $90k on $BTC. $MSTR earnings yesterday revealed only $10b of purchases for the year which on an"
X Link 2025-02-06T22:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"2/28/25 Equities A positive day in stocks with a very strong rally into the close that nearly erased the move down yesterday. PCE data this morning came in line with expectations but Core PCE posted the lowest annual gain since [----] lending some optimism for further rate cuts. Rate cut expectations moved to [------] from [------] yesterday. Still there was a bizarre exchange between Trump and Zelensky this afternoon which poured cold water on the idea of a mineral deal with Ukraine. Oddly this may have increased the odds of a peace deal as Trump essentially said that Zelensky should only come"
X Link 2025-02-28T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (3/3/25-3/7/25)"
X Link 2025-03-05T22:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"3/5/25 Equities Nice bounce in stocks though the index is still down nearly -2% for the week. The market has been whipsawed by tariff news this week with tarriffs going into place Tuesday. Today we hear that automakers are getting a 1-month delay and there are suggestions by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik that there may still be a deal on the table to minimize tariffs. I'm not even sure what to think at this point but it does seem like whatever does end up being final will be better than what has gone in place. ISM services data also hit today mostly above estimates but showing a slowdown"
X Link 2025-03-05T22:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (4/14/25-4/18/25)"
X Link 2025-04-14T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"4/14/25 Equities Equities finishing the day higher after a volatile session and volatile prior week. Markets seem to be appreciating the walk back on tariffs that Trump did this weekend. Though I fear that there is real lasting damage from the actions that Trump has taken since Liberation day. I think what scares me the most is how much this administration seems to believe in their path forward with respect to the America first policy at the expense of the rest of the world. While tariffs may be rolled back it is clear what the agenda is at this point. Though I think it is more of a long term"
X Link 2025-04-14T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"5/15/25 TradFi A +0.5% gain in the market today after starting out in the red overnight and in the early parts of the trading session. Data today came in somewhat mixed for risk markets in my opinion. PPI data came in less than expectations and was positive in terms of the story on declining inflation though also indicated that margins for companies are declining which isn't necessarily great for earnings. Retail sales came in better than expected but the control group was a big miss relative to expectations and likely shows a better picture of consumer spending. Jobs were basically on the"
X Link 2025-05-15T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"5/16/25 TradFi Markets up trending higher in the afternoon up 0.60% right now. The market initial sold off after U. Michigan data showed a worse than expected sentiment reading and higher inflation expectations. The reversal seems to be on news that tariff negotiations with Europe are making progress and that the administration plans on telling other countries (that are currently not in active negotiations) what their tariff rates will be in the next 2-3 weeks. The market now seems to be less worried about the impacts of tariffs. The next item of the agenda for the administration is the tax"
X Link 2025-05-16T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"5/22/25 TradFi Equities finishing the day slightly down after a large sell off into the close. There was employment and PMI data this morning but doesn't feel like the market reacted much on it. Employment came in-line while PMI was better than expected (though prices paid were the highest since late 2022). Yesterday we saw a large decline in risk after the weaker than expected 20-year treasury auction. Yields came in today but we're still 10-17bps wider than this time last week. The read through here is that the bond market does not like the fiscal situation particularly the widening budget"
X Link 2025-05-22T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"5/23/25 TradFi Stocks down -0.67% on the day though clawing back a lot of the pre-market sell off. Before the open the market was gifted with a number of Trump posts regarding tariffs with the EU and $APPL. A nearly -1.5% drop at its worst before the market open. Bessent was on the tape later in the day and I think his comments (as well as Trump's past behavior) gave the markets a reason to fade the earlier Trump remarks. Still this is another lesson that Trump is wildly unpredictable and can nuke the markets at any moment. Though I think its hilarious to think that Trump saw where Treasury"
X Link 2025-05-23T22:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (6/16/25-6/20/25)"
X Link 2025-06-18T20:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"6/18/25 TradFi Markets finishing relatively unchanged but trading lower throughout the day after the morning pop. Equities down 1% since last week as the market began pricing in potential US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. The big item for the day was FOMC. No changes in rates (as expected) and no change to the dot plot. The main takeaway from Powell's presser was that the committee remains in wait and see mode (similar to last meeting). They seem fine to see how tariffs impact the economy through the summer and think they are well positioned with current policy. Yields slightly"
X Link 2025-06-18T20:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Midcurved $CRCL pretty hard because it seemed wildly overvalued when it IPOd. Didnt really factor in that stable coins are the most interesting use case in crypto and easy to pitch to traditional money managers. Not really sure what to think about the stock at this point. I think if youre bullish youre subscribing to the idea that capital flows into crypto will be to crypto equities and not tokens. I havent owned $COIN in a long time. Management havent shown themselves to be competent in any way and I think its likely that the regulatory compliant moat the company enjoys crumbles as larger"
X Link 2025-06-19T04:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Quite possibly the most bullish thing Ive seen for Launchcoin. I wish I was lying. @pasternak @random3637 Ship the flywheel so they stop being so mean @pasternak @random3637 Ship the flywheel so they stop being so mean"
X Link 2025-06-21T03:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"7/2/25 TradFi Markets finished the day +0.47% today. Private payrolls came in much weaker than expected and saw risk sell off pre-market. But stocks steadily climbed during the day perhaps supported by the idea that a weaker labor market would bolster the case for more interest rate cuts. We've now gotten conflicting data this week regarding the job market with JOLTS coming in stronger than expected yesterday and ADP coming in weaker than expected. Nonfarm payrolls tomorrow should be interesting and the most telling of the jobs data this week. We also have ISM/PMI services data and durable"
X Link 2025-07-02T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"7/3/25 TradFi Equities rallied 0.83% today. The rally started after labor market data this morning with non-farm payrolls coming in much stronger than expected. Unemployment came in lower than expectations while labor force participation came in lower than expectations and hourly earnings growth was also lower than expectations. The data here generally showed robustness in the labor markets and the lower hourly earnings growth is good for future inflation. The one thing to caution in the report is that it was mostly driven by public sector employment with private sector job growth coming in"
X Link 2025-07-03T22:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (7/14/25 - 7/18/25)"
X Link 2025-07-14T20:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"7/14/25 TradFi Markets finishing the day higher after a number of tariff related headlines over the weekend. There are also reports that the EU is looking to talk with other countries impacted by tariffs presumably to try to put pressure on the US. On the face most of the headlines seem terrible but the market appears to be pricing in a high likelihood of Trump walking back headline tariff numbers. Still it does feel like there is a lot of complacency in the market with regards to tariff impacts. CPI PPI and retail sales remain the big data points for the week. Crypto $BTC continues to look"
X Link 2025-07-14T20:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The market certainly knows I think participants just collectively think Trump will be eating TACOs come August 1st. For $BTC I think it might just be a case of sellers running out of coins. The post Udi wrote today while hyperbolic is instructive IMO. Why weaker August/September Just normal seasonality"
X Link 2025-07-14T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (7/22/25 - 7/25/25)"
X Link 2025-07-22T20:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"7/22/25 TradFi Markets finishing slightly positive for the day. Some early market weakness as $GM said that tariffs had reduced margins by $1b. Tariffs on the Philippines also announced (higher than the 10% base rate) while it seems discussions with China may extend through the August deadline. Bessent on the tape saying that Powell should serve out his term (if he so chooses). Otherwise not a ton of news but a lot of earnings on the come the next few weeks. Treasury yields around 3bps lower across the curve since last week. Rate cut expectations through the balance of the year basically"
X Link 2025-07-22T20:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"7/23/25 TradFi Very strong day for risk with the market finishing the day up nearly +80bps. A lot of positive tariff news moving the markets today. First the US announced a deal that sets Japanese tariffs at 15% much lower than the 30% levels floated prior. And that was followed up by news that EU rates would also settle around the 15% level. Very encouraging progress here. Crypto Market looking a bit shakier here especially considering the strength in equities that we saw during the day. No real read here in the short term but definitely remain bullish over the next few months. Jesus fucking"
X Link 2025-07-23T21:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"7/24/25 TradFi Stocks finishing slightly higher today though sold off into the close. Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected and have now fallen in [--] straight weeks. A lot of notable corporate earnings today with $GOOGL signaling strong demand for AI products. Earnings will continue to be the main focus in the near term. Yields slightly higher on the day with most of the widening seen in the front end of the curve post-employment data. Rate cut expectations for the balance of the year continue to fall -- now sitting at [-----] cuts. Not a lot news on the tariff front though Trump"
X Link 2025-07-24T21:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@napoleonkapital Thanks mate Talos is on my radar but I havent been able to get an entry. I know its AI $OHM but I havent dug too deeply. What do you like about it"
X Link 2025-07-24T22:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@hieruxx Bro this shit was like $Libra light for me. So many dead bodies on that chart. Definitely try it out Ive found it really helpful to write down my thoughts such that I can internalize my actions"
X Link 2025-07-24T22:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"7/28/25 TradFi Markets finishing slightly higher on the day rallying into the close. We got some positive news on the trade front with an announced deal with the EU on Sunday and further delays on deadlines to negotiate with China. Final details of the EU deal haven't been published but it sounds like a 15% rate with some investments in the US. Overall a very good outcome especially with Trump anchoring the market to no better than 15% last week. No progress on China however the deadline delay and the deal with the EU reads positively for a Chinese deal. We have a big week coming with mega"
X Link 2025-07-28T20:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"7/29/25 TradFi Markets finishing the day weaker perhaps in anticipation of FOMC and hard data the rest of the week. JOLTS came in lower than expectations but still showing a strong absolute levels for the job market. On the trade front we heard that China are signaling a truce on tariffs while negotiations continue and it seems like another [--] day pause is on the table. One thing I'm taking note of is the lack of follow through on the recent trade announcements. Hopefully just chalking this up to a data heavy calendar for the week. In addition to data I've talked about before the Quarterly"
X Link 2025-07-29T20:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"8/1/25 TradFi Brutal few days for equities with the index down over -2% during that time frame. A lot to digest from the past few days. We had had pretty good GDP print hotter than expected PCE and in-line FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. But the wheels fell off as Powell's press conference came out hawkish. Rate cut odds for September went from a favorite before the presser to a dog afterwards. Then we had a ton of trade headlines yesterday and overnight. A big surprise on the high Canadian rates and overall it seems as though we might be getting tariffs that exceed Liberation day"
X Link 2025-08-01T21:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$BMNR / $SBET The recent divergence in price between $BMNR and $SBET shows the differences in management approach of each. $BMNR management seem to understand that mNAV expansion creates speculative flows which further allow the company to sell shares into the market over a longer time horizon to fund treasury operations. $SBET management is relentlessly hammering the market through ATM sales and private sales constraining mNAV. Over the long run this is unsustainable. Why would speculative capital flow into $SBET if there is no possibility of speculative premium The only explanation I will"
X Link 2025-08-08T16:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@smileandmaybe Star power helps but $SBET outperformed when $BMNR the latter had a huge overhang of shares weighing on the market. Outflows vis-a-vis share sales can have a much bigger impact than the inflows from star power"
X Link 2025-08-09T06:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"8/19/25 TradFi The index finished down [---] bps led by a sell off in tech names. FOMC minutes on Thursday but the big event this week is Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. September is pricing in [----] rate cuts off a bit from the [----] high of last week (following weaker than expected unemployment data). But the market will be looking to see what Powell says regarding the rate path going forward. I would be surprised if Powell comes out overly dovish here but with weaker data and tamer inflation it is certainly in the cards. Crypto Majors look like absolute trash right now. Unless we have"
X Link 2025-08-19T21:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@urule33 So real. Catch you in AIM tomorrow 🫡"
X Link 2025-08-19T21:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"8/21/25 TradFi Another down day in the markets with the index finishing down -0.40%. The labor markets showed some signs of weakening with the higher than expected jobless claims number earlier this morning. And PMI data particularly in manufacturing showed continued growth -- not great for inflation expectations. On net mixed signals for where the Fed will lean with weaker employment and stronger growth. However The Fed's Hammack was on the tape saying that she wouldn't support rate cuts given recent data. Rate cut odds now showing [-----] cuts for September vs [-----] before data hit this"
X Link 2025-08-21T20:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"My read is that if they exercise the WARRANTS the stock would get de-listed because they would have more share than they are allowed. This effectively prevents them from exercising the warrants. This is actually bullish as it means current shareholders have twice the amount of tokens per share"
X Link 2025-10-06T21:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@JabroniVille69 @ALT5_Sigma @worldlibertyfi There is no mechanism to bring share price to NAV. Study the greyscale bitcoin trust before ETF approval"
X Link 2025-10-07T00:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@quant_larp @ALT5_Sigma @worldlibertyfi Thank you this is great context"
X Link 2025-10-07T14:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"A liquidation of tokens would be incredibly bullish for $ALTS. If anyone actually took this trade they would already be scaling into a short position before maneuvering to liquidate tokens. I do agree that a failed vote here ideally just lights a fire under the @ALT5_Sigma and @worldlibertyfi teams to move faster in terms of delivering value to share/token holders"
X Link 2025-10-07T16:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@gladioluskaktus @ROLCapital @LulevTrading @ALT5_Sigma @worldlibertyfi @kingdomcapadv @chaka23121 That is not how this works"
X Link 2025-10-07T17:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@BuckGoe2403 @ALT5_Sigma @worldlibertyfi Yes"
X Link 2025-10-08T09:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Going to start using this as an investing / life journal. Will be mostly talking to myself but thoughts and comments are welcome. The goal is to be more intentional about everything I do. Hoping that having somewhere to put my thoughts helps me in that journey"
X Link 2024-06-27T12:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (5/12/25-5/16/25)"
X Link 2025-05-12T21:02Z [----] followers, 33.8K engagements

"Clear concise and well researched. An overview of the narrative and the potential of HyperSwap AI. One of the best fundamental rundowns of a crypto project Ive seen. $HYLX provides incredible risk:reward at these levels. https://t.co/pfoawOLq4D https://t.co/pfoawOLq4D"
X Link 2025-05-19T02:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (8/18/25 - 8/22/25)"
X Link 2025-08-19T21:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Thanks mate I think its hard to definitively say what will happen to $ALTS. My lean is that the market will value the underlying $WLFI with a premium to NAV. And I expect $WLFI token to go up given the sheer amount of dry powder (via $ALTS and otherwise). Having a liquid market price will definitely help but given the token is so new there is a possibility that the market does not give it a premium or even full market value. The second problem is how bad the market looks at the moment. Finally if youve looked at the recent 13-G filings you see there is a lot of fast money with a lot of"
X Link 2025-08-20T12:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Some more thoughts on $ALTS @notpius Thanks mate I think its hard to definitively say what will happen to $ALTS. My lean is that the market will value the underlying $WLFI with a premium to NAV. And I expect $WLFI token to go up given the sheer amount of dry powder (via $ALTS and otherwise). Having a liquid @notpius Thanks mate I think its hard to definitively say what will happen to $ALTS. My lean is that the market will value the underlying $WLFI with a premium to NAV. And I expect $WLFI token to go up given the sheer amount of dry powder (via $ALTS and otherwise). Having a liquid"
X Link 2025-08-20T12:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"8/22/25 TradFi A big day for risk with the index finishing +1.5% today. The big driver here was a more dovish than expected Powell during his Jackson Hole speech this morning. Powell essentially said that because of downside risks to employment that the Fed is willing to adjust interest rate policy. Powell also said that his base case for the inflationary impacts of tariffs would be a one-time shift (i.e. not persistent). Rate cut expectations nearly hit [-----] during the Jackson Hole speech and settled around [-----] cuts at the close (up from [-----] coming into his speech). One thing to caution"
X Link 2025-08-22T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (8/25/25-8/29/25)"
X Link 2025-08-26T03:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"8/25/25 TradFi Markets finishing down -43bps today perhaps in part by doubts about how dovish Powell actually was in Jackson Hole. We also had reports after the close that Trump had fired Fed Governor Cook causing a further sell off in futures as well as the dollar. I still think the Jackson Hole speech was sufficiently dovish but inflation data later this week will likely be instructive on the short term path for risk. Aside from PCE on Thursday and Friday we have jobless claims and q/q GDP on Thursday. Crypto Brutal selloff starting midday Sunday and continuing through today. Prices"
X Link 2025-08-26T03:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"8/23/25 TradFi A nice recovery on risk with stocks up +0.41%. Some positive data points with durable goods and consumer sentiment exceeding expectations. Otherwise I don't see anything too noteworthy to explain market movements. PCE still the big data point for the remainder of the week. Crypto Majors recovering nicely here. Honestly don't even know how to feel about the market in the short run at this point. I've really just had tunnel vision on this $WLFI / $ALTS trade. Actually did some more purchases of $WLFI w/ an average fill of $0.253. $GoonFi migrated to The team says that everyone"
X Link 2025-08-26T21:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Market Thoughts Week [--] (9/2/25-9/5/25)"
X Link 2025-09-02T22:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"9/2/25 TradFi Markets closing down [---] bps. It was a heavy corporate bond issuance day which may be driving rates wider and causing a weakness in risk. Otherwise I'm not seeing any specific news items driving price action other than maybe the idea that Trump had died. A lot of data this week with ISM/PMI data tomorrow (and Thursday) JOLTS Fed Beige Book and durable/factory orders on Wednesday and NFP on Friday. Overall no change in market views on my end still think 2H is setting up well for risk though trade and inflation are key things to watch. Crypto Majors making a decent recovery from"
X Link 2025-09-02T22:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"ad astra per $aster"
X Link 2025-09-20T03:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Long read but well worth it if you want to better understand prediction markets. https://t.co/MaTVbsZSL7 https://t.co/MaTVbsZSL7"
X Link 2025-09-23T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ALTS / $WLFI @ALT5_Sigma shares potentially hold double the amount of $WLFI tokens per share. Through an almost comical error by the @ALT5_Sigma team in structuring its PIPE deal the @worldlibertyfi team are unable to exercise warrants received for their contribution of $WLFI to $ALTS without shareholder approval. Though any rational actor would vote 'NO' for all proposals the company has put forth I'm sending this tweet to spread awareness on the importance of this shareholder vote (due 23:59 EST 10/9). The company unsurprisingly advises shareholders to vote 'YES' to all proposals. However"
X Link 2025-10-06T20:51Z [----] followers, 16.7K engagements

"@ALT5_Sigma @worldlibertyfi @TheStalwart @tracyalloway @andrewrsorkin @Ritholtz @ptj_official @SahilBloom Something interesting that I think could appeal to your audience"
X Link 2025-10-07T13:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Very interesting context for the $ALTS / $WLFI situation @Kevo0o0o0 @ALT5_Sigma @worldlibertyfi there was a similar situation with the story protocol DAT heritage distilling holding company (IPST formerly CASK) they raised the capital through direct and warrant issuance then purchased IP tokens with the cash / accepted in-kind contributions before any shareholder vote https://t.co/OZYGIROuSm @Kevo0o0o0 @ALT5_Sigma @worldlibertyfi there was a similar situation with the story protocol DAT heritage distilling holding company (IPST formerly CASK) they raised the capital through direct and warrant"
X Link 2025-10-07T14:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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