@ragingbullcap Avatar @ragingbullcap Dylan Marrello

Dylan Marrello posts on X about business, in the, $dboto, market cap the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 28.8% stocks 20.8% cryptocurrencies 5.6% countries 4% technology brands 3.2% celebrities 1.6% social networks 1.6% currencies 0.8% exchanges 0.8% gaming 0.8%

Social topic influence business 9.6%, in the 8%, $dboto 6.4%, market cap #1232, $miax #1, $haypp #2, $snap #49, snap #405, horizon kinetics #1, $ogi #4

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @larry_finc @bondkingjanush1 @lars57360069 @kennyack5 @grok @sfarringtonbkc @mikefritzell @310value @souzaj99 @berkelkip @ericwanghermit @casinocapital @diego_la_torre_ @joinyellowbrick @uzocapital @cupofcoffeecap @natstewart5 @beelicapital @vince85623723 @gezzogero

Top assets mentioned Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) HORIZON KINETICS HOLDING (HKHC) LandBridge Company LLC (LB) Transocean LTD. (RIG) Validity (VAL) Noble Corporation (NE) Seadrill Limited (SDRL) AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ASTS) Texas Pacific Land, Corp. (TPL) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$SNAP now entering territory where sentiment has become entirely disconnected from reality. Almost 1x sales on a 60% gross margin social media business with 1B MAU and a new high-margin subscription monetization model running at $1B and growing 60%. Perplexity deal seems to actually be rolling out despite question marks raised on the call. All time low despite the PnL never being in better shape. Beneficiary of AI. This will be a multi-bagger from here. Bookmark it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021959648559997140 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021959648559997140"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:48Z [----] followers, 49.2K engagements

"Own physical assets especially those that will play a role in the revolution. $LB $NRP"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:02Z [----] followers, 20.3K engagements

"Are you kidding me"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$RIG $VAL Not the deal I was expecting at all.but man is this bullish for the sector *TRANSOCEAN TO BUY VALARIS IN STOCK DEAL VALUED AT ABOUT $5.8B *TRANSOCEAN TO BUY VALARIS IN STOCK DEAL VALUED AT ABOUT $5.8B"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:15Z [----] followers, 11K engagements

"Now $NE just has to take $SDRL -- boom: duopoly"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$LB Data centers in the Permian are looking increasingly inevitable Horizon Kinetics guesstimates $80m of effectively pure margin revenue for 1GW on 2K acres. Even if it's half of that this just the beginning of the re-rating for Landbridge. I'd argue you're still actually not paying anything for that optionality at this price. https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Horizon-Kinetics-Q4-2024-Commentary_Final.pdf https://eastdaley.com/the-burner-tip/chevron-plans-data-center-power-complex-in-west-texas-supporting-permian-demand Own physical assets especially those that will play a role in the"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:48Z [----] followers, 47.8K engagements

"$NE $SDRL $VAL $RIG IMO offshore bears are too tethered to past cycles and are missing that this time really does look a lot different. What has been responsible for the vicious cyclical downturns historically Supply side dynamics (always the culprit of busted cycles) fragmentation and high financial leverage. In previous cycles you've had drillers lever up to bring new supply online (at the worst time) creating a consequent supply/demand imbalance; given carry costs/negative operating leverage and exacerbated by debt burdens you then get drillers desperate to generate revenue competing on"
X Link 2025-03-07T15:46Z [----] followers, 35.5K engagements

"$RDI Pretty awesome quarter - Revenues 29% EBIT $2.9m and +ve FCF (finally) despite fx headwinds. [----] will show further growth. - Cinemas did $5.5m segment operating profit. All three jurisdictions were profitable. Per patron prices are increasing at faster rate than major expense lines (e.g. occupancy expenses). So profitability gains are being driven by both attendance and improved efficiency. Huge operating leverage. - Balance sheet in way better shape: $32m of debt paid down in [----]. Absurdly the EV has shrunk by around the same amount over that period. Most maturities have been pushed"
X Link 2025-08-15T18:57Z [----] followers, 10K engagements

"$CRON Not a net-net anymore 😅 $CRON $OGI $MSOS 👀 To be sure there's only one reason Trump's touting the health benefits of cannabis on a Sunday night. You've been warned before the open. $CRON $OGI $MSOS 👀 To be sure there's only one reason Trump's touting the health benefits of cannabis on a Sunday night. You've been warned before the open"
X Link 2025-09-29T15:25Z [----] followers, 17.5K engagements

"$DBO.TO A life changing outcome thus far and insiders are still buying like mad. I've played out so many scenarios in my head and it's awfully hard to conjure up a path where this isn't yet another double from here. Welcome your most most persuasive bear case in the comments. $DBO.TO A nanocap asset-light royalty business to play the theme. Cinemark's update today notes last weekend was the best three-days ever for D-Box ticket sales. CNK is D-Box's biggest partner. Much of the upcoming slate will have a D-Box offering. In addition to $DBO.TO A nanocap asset-light royalty business to play the"
X Link 2025-12-09T20:55Z [----] followers, 21.9K engagements

"@cvanhooydonk Thanks hadn't caught that"
X Link 2025-12-19T16:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Sounds facetious but if you actually 1) read voraciously 2) think critically about that information from first principles and 3) have a time horizon longer than a few months you've already separated yourself from the majority. Applies to many facets of life not merely investing"
X Link 2025-12-23T19:15Z [----] followers, 62.9K engagements

"A few things I like heading into [----] that I haven't discussed much previously. $SNAP Got dinged with tax loss selling the last couple months but really like the set up ahead. Subscription fees for SNAP+/storage add high margin revenue streams while bloated cost structure should continue to fall as a % of sales. Intriguing strategic optionality for AI players (e.g. Perplexity deal). Continue to buy commons as well as selling $10 puts. $LB Almost cut in half from its highs only two months ago and is back to a compelling entry valuation. Added in size this AM. Call option on Permian data center"
X Link 2026-01-05T15:55Z [----] followers, 17.1K engagements

"@cupofcoffeecap Also interesting but not fully there on it. $LB seems ripe for a short-term move higher/didn't think we'd ever see sub $50 again so that's exciting to me. Probably should own WBI too"
X Link 2026-01-05T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Not easy at all of course. Even if you hit all [--] of these items you're very unlikely to get a [----] bagger. But it's a decent framework for big winners. Royalties attached to durable brands at the right price are one idea e.g. Buying something like $NATH [--] years ago. I actually think today $PLBY is something that checks all of these boxes"
X Link 2026-01-07T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ReturnsJourney $LB obviously is the closest comp but it's not a micro cap nor is it anywhere near as cheap as TPL was back then"
X Link 2026-01-07T18:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$DBO.TO $IMAX How's this for over-indexing PLF tech-providers are keeping the entire industry afloat:"
X Link 2026-01-13T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"My "asset-light hard asset" plays starting [----] off with a bang for obvious reasons. $NRP $LB $GMX.TO"
X Link 2026-01-13T20:51Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements

"@natstewart5 @acorn_capital @HorizonKinetics I've often wondered this as well. They're all over nearly every similar vehicle. Might be an aversion to coal or the MLP structure"
X Link 2026-01-13T23:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$DBO.TO A potentially huge opportunity coming up in Q4. Dune [--] and Avengers are both scheduled to open on the same weekend in December. Since Dune [--] has an exclusive three week window with $IMAX Avengers will be forced to screen in other premium formats meaning DBOX should be a huge draw for it. Industry experts widely expect Avengers to be the biggest box office draw this year and could exceed $1.5B globally. 🤑 https://www.themovieblog.com/2026/01/dune-part-three-secures-all-imax-screens-for-three-weeks-in-december/ $DBO.TO back in the 70s is plain silly. 10x NTM EPS. Added some more."
X Link 2026-01-21T18:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Very nice news for $NE and hugely validating to the broader offshore thesis. $NE announced [--] new awards totaling USD 1.3bn - Great White (Semi): 430k/d for [--] years - Gerry de Souza (6th Gen): 400k/d for [--] years - Endeavor (Jackup): 300k/d - Developer (Semi): 375k/d for [--] months $RIG $VAL $SDRL https://t.co/o3E03SYpSR $NE announced [--] new awards totaling USD 1.3bn - Great White (Semi): 430k/d for [--] years - Gerry de Souza (6th Gen): 400k/d for [--] years - Endeavor (Jackup): 300k/d - Developer (Semi): 375k/d for [--] months $RIG $VAL $SDRL https://t.co/o3E03SYpSR"
X Link 2026-01-26T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Market share lead low cost of capital BAT strategic value brand dominance across categories valuation. The size/scale of the business implies a market cap that *could end up much higher. $300m of net sales already. Once they run that for cash flow/normalize margins it will be a money printer"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Entire telecom sector right now worth taking a very close look at. $ZEG.L shareholders have seen how much untapped value is sitting there to unlock in some of these entities. And that's even before the prospective uplift and cost savings that will come from D2D. $VOD $ASTS Nearly 1/3 of my book right now in this theme. $VZ are guiding to lower capex and committing to punchy capital returns out to 2028+12% today - biggest [--] day up move since [----] if $ASTS / D2D is part of the reason $VOD $VOD.L equity and calls are gonna explode. $VZ are guiding to lower capex and committing to punchy capital"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Worthwhile read $ogi $cron Here is my analysis of the Canadian Cannabis recreative sector plus a discussion of a few of my holdings. Hope you'll find it useful. Feedback and disparaging comments welcome. https://t.co/8xea1bGiIw Here is my analysis of the Canadian Cannabis recreative sector plus a discussion of a few of my holdings. Hope you'll find it useful. Feedback and disparaging comments welcome. https://t.co/8xea1bGiIw"
X Link 2026-01-30T23:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$OGI there are a number of issues with this analysis as the author himself notes but it should be directionally correct and is a very important piece to all of this. The excise tax is fixed at $1/g meaning increased prices have a leveraged impact on earnings not simply because that incremental revenue is achieved with no incremental increase in cost but because it results in excise tax as a % of total sales declining. The company with the highest volumes and lowest ASP (i.e. highest excise tax %) therefore has the most leverage to rationalizing domestic prices. @ragingbullcap @Diego_La_Torre_"
X Link 2026-02-01T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$OGI No shortage of comedy in this sector but shares being lower since James was announced as CEO is up there with the most hilarious item to-date. Very worthwhile listen 👇 Ideal mindset to be leading the company at this stage 🎦 TRADE TO BLACK Inside Organigram: What the New CEO is Focused on in [----] 🎙 $OGI @Organigram_Inc CEO James Yamanaka 🔎 BAT Background Leadership Style Vision for the Future etc. ⚕🌿🧺 ETFs: 🌎 $YOLO $MSOS https://t.co/bQu1FLNC5X 🎦 TRADE TO BLACK Inside Organigram: What the New CEO is Focused on in [----] 🎙 $OGI @Organigram_Inc CEO James Yamanaka 🔎 BAT Background"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$TPB Market sniffing out the ALP momentum. There's a potential Celsius-like CPG growth story here"
X Link 2026-02-03T15:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Backwards looking. Companies get valued based on how much cash they're going to generate in the future not how much they've already made and first and second derivatives matter in valuation. Palantir is growing 100% and PayPal is shrinking. So PLTR goes from 100x sales to 50x in [----]. Palantir is tackling a large untapped TAM with limited competition; PayPal is in an immensely competitive space with disruption coming from all sides and a really challenged position. The market is telling you that Palantir is going to generate way more cash flow in the future than PayPal will and that"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$SNAP one of those situations where sentiment could not be more in the toilet yet virtually every piece of the story is improving. ARPU and MAU growth gross margin expanding to 59% even a small gaap profit. Running at almost $1B subs revenue (high margin 71% growth). Costs can rapidly drop with Specs separation (and maybe that turns into something valuable). Perplexity revenue coming this year + endless optionality around AI. Bad day to be reporting as a tech company and market will price anchor but this doesn't make any sense at $6 ($10B market cap). Another 10% revenue growth at the current"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$SNAP big tell on how disconnected sentiment is from reality is how disproportionate the knee-jerk regurgitated talking point about elevated SBC is. Too high yes but it's middle of the pack as % of sales relative to tech peers. Will trend towards 12% this year. And a lot of that spend is R&D comp related to Specs which we know is getting separated and will get some third-party financing down the road. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019818347974606862 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019818347974606862"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$RDI $RDIB Totally rational stuff going on here"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@siyul HODL that pro forma equity long-term Your implied basis is going to look remarkable down the road. Nicely done"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The JU piece is immaterial wouldn't be surprised to see that piece divested. RIG now has enormous market power in floaters removes the entity that has prioritized utilization over price (ergo increasing pricing power) and has deleveraged itself putting itself in a position to return capital not too far down the road. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020896912929325456 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020896912929325456"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$CPH.TO Looks like no usual monthly filing for NCIB activity this time around. Could be that everything went to debt reduction and the balance sheet is now entirely debt free although I don't think pausing was necessary for that. If we're lucky it may be that deal talks are materializing. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020913392182087838 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020913392182087838"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Sure except I think one can be substantially more confident in the direction of day rates than metals prices at this point given the market structure. I almost view the drillers as mission critical infrastructure like assets at this point - $ODL.OL outcome coming to drillships"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SFarringtonBKC @Lars57360069 @TommyDeepwater Don't disagree but there's also always an element of guessing on something like that. Offshore is increasingly losing its commodity status. Fixed to declining supply duopoly control and no substitutes to fill demand. The S/D dynamic is structural"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Scale and unit economics have been the focus and they've done a good job on that front but now they need to do a much better job managing their working capital. Hoping a more experience executive at the top will be able to help with that. Market is not going to re-rate the equity significantly until they prove out cash conversion. Also just too many unforced errors and suboptimal operating. E.g. working with Euro regulators is obvs a nightmare but the EU-GMP stuff at this point is just on them; it's amateur hour; the hiccup in exports; etc"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"You can't evaluate this company sequentially. Royalties are driven by content windows out of their control. Had Jurassic Park previous Q which had no IMAX screens in NA to compete with and a few titles that were perfect for the offering. IMAX captured a hugely disproportionate amount of Avatar and beyond Zootopia there was nothing big. From April on this calendar year the slate is really good for them - e.g. Avengers is the expected to be the biggest draw and has no IMAX screens. Need to look at what they can control - system expansion and costs and both were super strong"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@qualtrim Lol not if you overpay and/or the durability of future cash flows declines. If only it were this simple"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Absolute must read https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg"
X Link 2026-02-11T05:07Z [----] followers, 24.6K engagements

"You need a CFTC issued DCM license to serve as a futures exchange in the US Bitstamp doesn't work for this. The MIAXdx license is a unique type of DCM license in that it is one of few that allows for non-intermediated clearing - it allows HOOD to offer futures directly without going through an FCM - so they can capture each part of the value chain. It's why getting this license makes a lot of sense for hood. Regulators are nevertheless scrutinizing stuff like this after the FTX blow up but that's likely why HOOD has brought Susquehana and MIAX into the JV so that there is some separation"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@BeeliCapital @KennyAck5 Because they are going to raise third party capital in that vehicle. So SNAP shareholders get their interest in SPECS diluted but they no longer need to fund the R&D from the core biz a fine trade off because the market values Specs as a donut"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@FriendlyCapMgmt Cannabis gets decimated by everything. Even legalization is negative"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Backwards looking. They quite literally just reported a GAAP profit MAUs are flat and critically ARPUs are moving in the right direction across all regions. I don't care if they lose a moderate amount of DAUs if they're monetizing them more effectively Assuming 10% topline growth next year at 60% gross margin and flat opex they'll do over $700m of EBIT next year. So that 1x sales multiple puts you at 11x EBIT assuming zero improvement to opex. Gives no credit to perplexity value to Specs and assumes no R&D cuts. $SHOP EBIT is roughly 2x and its market cap is 20x higher"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"RT @MikeFritzell: Narrative violation 🚨🚨🚨"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 20+ years of Murray Stahl's shareholder letters at $FRMO and the company's trajectory more broadly are just so so bizarre. Yet shrouded by all the eccentricity they've quietly compounded BVPS at more than 25% since [----]. A fascinating person and company particularly given the combination of a really patient value obsessed Buffett disciple building a crypto business at a glacial pace through a pink sheet stock makes for a natural investor base of practically zero. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794027909952241787 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794027909952241787"
X Link 2024-05-24T15:29Z [----] followers, 27K engagements

"When I said these business can "run a very long way" I meant forever. https://x.com/nmtuan_14/status/1845929741901078950 I knew TPL was the second stock Buffett ever bought but never knew he still owns it. Im never selling my TPL shares 😂 https://x.com/nmtuan_14/status/1845929741901078950 I knew TPL was the second stock Buffett ever bought but never knew he still owns it. Im never selling my TPL shares 😂"
X Link 2024-10-14T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Horizon Kinetics controlled extremely illiquid BTC miner $WELX just collapsed 25% on some $200K ish of volume on no news as far as I can tell. I ate a decent chunk and am full but the ask is still well below $4 -- shares generally trade closer to $4.50/$5. Unless I am missing something (and I very well could be) looks like some easy lunch money. Second time this has happened this year; first time shares recovered back to $4.50 in short order. Not investment advice never is. dyodd https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1968403078463308160 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1968403078463308160"
X Link 2025-09-17T19:53Z [----] followers, 21.6K engagements

"1/ $CMSG is a quirky and very mispriced OTC stock for small accounts with potentially explosive upside over time - this could double today and still look attractive (NB: very illiquid). Consensus Mining is another Horizon Kinetics related BTC miner. IPO'd this summer in darkness stock has found itself completely dislocated as lack of discovery has led to no bid for any legacy holders looking for some liquidity (shares have traded as high as $80 but are now at $40 on no news). Even if you're a Bitcoin skeptic the numbers are hard to ignore: ROICs have been absurdly good yet the enterprise"
X Link 2025-10-28T15:47Z [----] followers, 28.7K engagements

"$MIAX 🫡 $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are https://t.co/i91K7usvcV $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are https://t.co/i91K7usvcV"
X Link 2025-12-22T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$TPL One of my favorite investment cases to think through. Legendary. Market cap has grown 330x since [----] from $61.5m to $21B - remarkable in its own right - but that vastly understates the outcome given all the capital returns. I believe TPL has cumulatively split its stock 45x since Murray's write up. 3.075m S/O in [----] x [--] implies 138m theoretical shares today. Actual share count today is half of that (69m). So capital appreciation on a per share basis roughly doubles to something like 650x due to buyback accretion. And then there's all the dividends. I'm too lazy to add them all up and"
X Link 2026-01-07T17:08Z [----] followers, 59.3K engagements

"Perfect day to be a $MIAX owner. 12m of market wide volume [--] mins into the session. https://www.miaxglobal.com/ Horizon Kinetics on $MIAX https://t.co/DITK4pcl7v https://t.co/o4trxruy29 https://www.miaxglobal.com/ Horizon Kinetics on $MIAX https://t.co/DITK4pcl7v https://t.co/o4trxruy29"
X Link 2026-01-20T15:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MIAX One of the best things about this business how much it thrives during days like this. 10m options contracts already traded on its exchanges. Stock should start to work once the lock-up overhang is cleared in coming months. https://www.miaxglobal.com/ https://www.miaxglobal.com/"
X Link 2026-01-29T18:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Vince85623723 @310Value Well I'd suggest the duration lack of capital intensity and extremely high margins justifies 25x EBITDA for LB. So you can do the math on what just a single one of these might be worth. Currently doing $200m of EBITDA so a single data 1GW data center alone is a big deal"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Purely anecdotal but increasingly noticing young women in NYC using Zyn/other NPs. [--] can goes for $10 at the bodega. Wait until they discover it's half the price to buy online. No one men included really know that's a thing here yet. Insane growth opportunity. $haypp"
X Link 2025-11-14T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Find me a more attractive growth story than Nicotine Pouches. Ill wait. $Haypp"
X Link 2025-11-27T17:29Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements

"Long $SNAP in size below $8. Patten recognition or idiocy One of my best investments was a 10% position in $SPOT in Dec [----] with the stock at an all time low of $75/share. The product was always lauded - great brand sticky subs 500m MAUs despite competing against the best companies in the history of capitalism. Yet the market hated the stock: "the labels will capture all the value" "they'll never make a profit" "SBC is egregious" etc. The stock traded 2x sales as a result. Fast forward [---] years and the stock has 10xd. What did the market miss - SPOT had prioritized growth/scale over"
X Link 2025-10-21T16:10Z [----] followers, 51.6K engagements

"$MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are obviously one of the highest quality asset classes but rarely trade at discounted prices. This is an exception. - The core options exchange segment is a fast growing gem that has captured just shy of 20% of US multi-listed options volume disrupting a long-standing oligopoly despite maintaining competitive unit economics. ADV"
X Link 2025-12-17T17:54Z [----] followers, 47.6K engagements

"Horizon Kinetics on $MIAX https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Founders-Letter-2026_Final.pdf $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities exchange holdco that hasn't received much attention since going public this summer. EV is $4.3B $400m net cash. - Securities exchanges are https://t.co/i91K7usvcV https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Founders-Letter-2026_Final.pdf $MIAX Decided to do my first long-form research report in a while on this one (link in bio). - MIAX is a recently IPO'd securities"
X Link 2026-01-13T01:49Z [----] followers, 32.5K engagements

"$HITI incredibly bullish update provides a great read through for the rest of the industry. Challenge anyone to find me a sector in North America with valuations more disconnected from reality than Canadian cannabis. Where I disagree is on the need for institutional attention: we are getting very close to the point where the ongoing profitability inflection will be simply too hard to ignore. Companies operating with these kinds of unit economics secular growth rates and entry barriers cannot stay value traps for very long; the already preposterous multiples can't contract that much more."
X Link 2026-01-30T13:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Consider this. $OGI shares are slightly lower than they were exactly two years ago. Meanwhile look at the transformation of its PnL over that timeframe. Yes they issued equity to finance some of that transformation but can anyone make a good case that the per share value of this business hasn't increased in two years That notion becomes even more outrageous when you consider the achieved dominance of market share enormous improvements in domestic market structure (less competition upward pricing) immense growth of international opportunities promising regulatory developments in the US a new"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"These are long duration holds. Demand for cannabis will only continue to grow and the incumbents domestically are entrenched/ie cant see there being any new entrants. So you have fixed/declining participants in a secularly growing industry where the unit economics are already fantastic despite low pricing. You dont need a catalyst the earnings power will eventually emerge"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$PLBY Beyond deleveraging and JV upside the mark implies you're basically getting the ex-China business and HB for almost nothing. Pretty good Monday so far. https://investors.playboy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/playboy-signs-122-million-deal-united-trademark-group-accelerate https://investors.playboy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/playboy-signs-122-million-deal-united-trademark-group-accelerate"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Haven't discussed this one much but hallmarks of a multi-bagger all over it: asset-light royalties on an indestructible brand (i.e. perpetual duration) at a deep-value price rapid deleveraging societal tailwinds tiny absolute market cap relative to potential tons of free optionality on licensing the brand in areas we can't even comprehend yet. Sounds bizarre but it reminds of me the Horizon TPL thesis in the 90s"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Seriously though $PLBY https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008948831853990306s=20 $TPL One of my favorite investment cases to think through. Legendary. Market cap has grown 330x since [----] from $61.5m to $21B - remarkable in its own right - but that vastly understates the outcome given all the capital returns. I believe TPL has cumulatively split its https://t.co/MxxljfE281 https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/2008948831853990306s=20 $TPL One of my favorite investment cases to think through. Legendary. Market cap has grown 330x since [----] from $61.5m to $21B - remarkable in its own right - but"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"People starting to do the math"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Buy when there's blood in the streets $NE $SDRL $VAL $RIG IMO offshore bears are too tethered to past cycles and are missing that this time really does look a lot different. What has been responsible for the vicious cyclical downturns historically Supply side dynamics (always the culprit of busted cycles) $NE $SDRL $VAL $RIG IMO offshore bears are too tethered to past cycles and are missing that this time really does look a lot different. What has been responsible for the vicious cyclical downturns historically Supply side dynamics (always the culprit of busted cycles)"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:29Z [----] followers, 20.8K engagements

"$OGI "They don't make any money" starts to ring pretty hollow as a bear case when you see those investments in scale and R&D paying off like this. Working capital build into stronger seasonality impacts FCF but progress continues to be amazing. Still paying 1/3 of sales on the excise tax which will provide a lot upside to margin expansion as domestic pricing and international sales increase. Remember this is a seasonally weak quarter. Equity is ridiculously cheap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021198019597611167 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021198019597611167"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$PLBY more people doing the math today. My numbers welcome pushback if I am getting any of this wrong. Fully diluted now $275m. Net debt end of Sept was $130m. For simplicity assuming $45m purchase price proceeds received today + $5m FCF pro forma net debt is $78m. So call it $350m EV. What do you get [--]. China licensing business. Worth thinking about the implied mark on the 50% sale. Annualizing last Q China revenues are $12m. UTG is paying $122m (front loaded) over [--] years for half of this.which is eye-popping when you consider the min guarantee is $8.3m + another $3.3m the first three years"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"And I'd be remiss to not mention the free call option on r/wallstreebets meme-ing this to infinity"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"A 20% earnings yield. $10m trailing EBITDA on roughly equivalent tangible invested capital 25% margins no debt with excess cash and just grew the screen count 5% in a single quarter().a record period for installations. (that latter piece is the most important part of the update by far if you understand what the value drivers are here). A refinery multiple on this would be uniquely preposterous. It might sell off because it's a microcap that fintwit piled into with borrowed conviction but its already more than a 60% discount to IMAX's multiple on NTM numbers at today's share price with more"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:17Z [----] followers, 14.1K engagements

"$DBO.TO if this update is underwhelming to you I recommend reading it more closely and thinking through what the drivers of this thesis are. [--]. To state the obvious (which the company repeats in every press release) the royalty business is driven by content and therefore quarterly comparisons (both sequential and YoY) are not instructive. What matters for the royalty stream is: 1) forward box office $'s (estimates for [----] are well above last years); 2) how the change in royalties compares to the box office (outperformed again); and 3) systems growth (which drives royalty growth independent"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:56Z [----] followers, 12.1K engagements

"Good luck disrupting this AI $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $NOL.OL Buy when there's blood in the streets Buy when there's blood in the streets"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:50Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements

"$MIAX Doesn't seem like anyone understands the latent value in the 10% stake they retained in their sale of the MIAXdx futures license to the Robinhood/Susquehanna JV (Rothera) $HOOD Prediction markets are growing like crazy. 2.3B in Q3 to [---] in Q4 (+270% QoQ) and already 4B in the first [--] weeks of [----]. The economics are $0.01/contract to the broker (HOOD) and $0.01 to the exchange clearinghouse. By purchasing the MIAX license HOOD captures more of that $0.02 total fee HOOD notes on the call they "anticipate a significant portion of volume will move over to Rothera". MIAX owns 10% of the"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:34Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements

"BTW MIAX plucked that license for $50m of the FTX bankruptcy less than [--] years ago. How's that for some good distressed investing https://news.bloomberglaw.com/crypto/ftx-sells-ledgerx-to-miami-exchange-owner-for-50-million#::text=FTX%20Sells%20LedgerX%20to%20Miami%20Exchange%20Owner%20for%20%2450%20Million https://news.bloomberglaw.com/crypto/ftx-sells-ledgerx-to-miami-exchange-owner-for-50-million#::text=FTX%20Sells%20LedgerX%20to%20Miami%20Exchange%20Owner%20for%20%2450%20Million"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@tom_grlla Because MIAX doesnt have a brokerage platform that can drive 40B of event contracts in a year They get to free ride off Robinhoods customers. $36m of royalties is easily worth $500m to MIAX thats 10x what they paid for it [--] months ago. No brainer"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Increased competition and changing consumer preferences is a good signal for $haypp $BTI $BATS Velo had a 24% market share as of EoY [----] while charging 86% of the price of Zyn across the board. That's up from a tiny 6.1% market share [--] months ago at MUCH MUCH lower prices. Back then some (idiots) criticized the discounting strategy. it clearly worked. https://t.co/VUz6FJfQkJ $BTI $BATS Velo had a 24% market share as of EoY [----] while charging 86% of the price of Zyn across the board. That's up from a tiny 6.1% market share [--] months ago at MUCH MUCH lower prices. Back then some (idiots)"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Not to mention they just reported their positive operating profit quarter ever"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The reason this is interesting from a $MIAX shareholder perspective is that beyond extremely limited commentary in a PR that simply announced the deal the company hasn't outwardly commented on the opportunity. Shareholders I've spoken to largely haven't given it much thought. Meanwhile $HOOD a company 20x the size of MIAX even after declining 40% was asked about Rothera at least [--] separate times on their earnings call and highlighted it in their earnings release. There is very little overlap between those who follow HOOD and MIAX so the size and scope of opportunity for this JV highlighted on"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Look at the way the economics are trending. When your revenue grows gross margins expand and opex stays flat earnings can rapidly inflect positive. Everyone is too busy looking in the review and fixating on long known issues like SBC which is easy to do when "stonk down". But the trends show clear progress and an imminent inflection. SNAP's problem historically is less about SBC and more about its struggle to scale unit economics because its infrastructure spend has grown in line with sales or even faster. They are finally starting to show gross margin expansion because subscriptions are pure"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"What happens when the growth markets start to comprise a bigger share of the pie"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$CLMT one of the most frustrating securities I'm in (probably second to OGI) but it does feel like we've reached the tipping point on the industry inflection. I'm sticking around for at least $40"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Bit of a long winded answer because this is something I've thought about a lot. The first thing to consider is whether Evan is actually an untrustworthy and value destructive manager. If one were to judge that by simply looking at the stock chart the answer is conclusive that he is terrible. But one needs to put that into the context of the business he's been building. SNAP has had to compete with Meta for eye balls and ad-dollars.- an earlier mover better capitalized with an outlier winner as its CEO - and endless other platforms. So the deck has been stacked against him from the start. What"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$snap @decodefinance @KennyAck5 Bit of a long winded answer because this is something I've thought about a lot. The first thing to consider is whether Evan is actually an untrustworthy and value destructive manager. If one were to judge that by simply looking at the stock chart the answer is conclusive that @decodefinance @KennyAck5 Bit of a long winded answer because this is something I've thought about a lot. The first thing to consider is whether Evan is actually an untrustworthy and value destructive manager. If one were to judge that by simply looking at the stock chart the answer is"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$HAYPP Already ridiculous growth rate is accelerating in the key markets and Europoors are selling this morning presumably because they're giving some margin away in exchange. Added some"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@leevalueroach If the latter is praying its also a prayer that your $1 stays a dollar while you wait"
X Link 2026-02-15T04:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Looks like weve arrived at the were polling terribly lets memory hole them that we did this part of the cycle BREAKING: Hillary Clinton says mass migration has gone too far has been disruptive and destabilizing and needs to be fixed in a humane way. https://t.co/BFe3dObLkT BREAKING: Hillary Clinton says mass migration has gone too far has been disruptive and destabilizing and needs to be fixed in a humane way. https://t.co/BFe3dObLkT"
X Link 2026-02-15T05:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"At least the growth guys prayer is worth another multiple. As much as Im intellectually and psychologically compelled toward the dollar for [--] cents when I go through my personal investing history the vast majority if not not all once you net it all out came from from buying a growing dollar. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022929117759369720 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022929117759369720"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"And now $2.73 for some easy rent money. One way to earn alpha if you're a smaller account is to eat up liquidity outside of market hours for small caps when they release positive news. Need to be careful with wider spreads and use limit orders (always) but the stock often doesn't start repricing properly until the market opens. Another way is to just to buy Canadian cannabis and hold it for the next decade ;) @mgorenst A genius just sold me [-----] shares at $2.52 @mgorenst A genius just sold me [-----] shares at $2.52"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:05Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements

"$RDI A bizarre anecdote on microcap efficiencies and algo trading. Last night around 7pm I get a notification that RDI is up significantly from its $1.18 close spiking as high as $2.10 on many multiples of ADV and then settling back down around $1.35. Weird: there's no news as far as I can tell and these shares never move overnight. I'm half asleep around midnight and this activity starts to happen again. Shares are transacting in the $1.60s +35% premium to where they closed. All I can find is some fake AI generated headline (below) attributing a different company's "post-COVID record"
X Link 2025-12-11T12:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"No opinion on these real estate names but Id be very careful checking your premise that more investment may improve profitability. Theres a little precedent from the same sector north of the border from less than decade ago that would strongly suggest otherwise (and endless other sectors time and time again). Massive amounts of new capital flooding into a commodity industry generally does not end well"
X Link 2025-12-13T19:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@souzaj99 @MikeFritzell Its crazy bad corporate governance. The positive is that China is the growth engine and will continue to be a larger piece of the company. That plus all the cash build should eventually make it untenable to leave this interest stranded"
X Link 2025-12-16T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@souzaj99 @MikeFritzell Yeah I suppose the difficulty there is the sufficient tender price to get that done increases as cash builds"
X Link 2025-12-16T15:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$TDW Picked up a bit more below $50. Need a strong stomach for how volatile this sector is but you're either getting what should be an accretive acquisition and/or a substantial return of capital in the new year. Its worth remembering that these guys wont just sit on the cash and wait. https://t.co/CdihkrXKnp Its worth remembering that these guys wont just sit on the cash and wait. https://t.co/CdihkrXKnp"
X Link 2025-12-19T20:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$RDI hits another all time low down 25% in a year. $RDIB the voting stock is up 75% over the same period. These securities have the same economic rights Efficient markets"
X Link 2025-12-19T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$DBO.TO Likely a pipe dream for the foreseeable future but I do think we see at least a couple new partnerships in [----]. E.g. $MCS has a strong balance sheet and nearly [----] screens seems like a perfect match to me. Avatar numbers are showing how paramount it is for exhibitors to have a wide premium offering. Total box office has come in below expectations but IMAX captured 12.6% of it's opening weekend on just 1% of total screens. DBOX is almost certainly over-indexing as well. Exhibitors simply can't afford to not have premium tech offerings. AMC restructures - partners with DBOX - DBOX"
X Link 2025-12-23T14:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$DBO.TO Added 150K shares in the mid-80c range today. Healthy pullback and unsurprising profit-taking but think this is one of the more compelling stories into [----]. Expecting a $CNK PR soon on holiday box office numbers which I imagine will highlight a DBOX record over the period (as they did with Minecraft in April). Big city CGX auditoriums screening Avatar continue to be sold out nearly across the board for DBOX. Have it at 11x NTM EPS ex-cash. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005748989254394064 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005748989254394064"
X Link 2025-12-29T21:13Z [----] followers, 15.3K engagements

"Would frankly be shocked to not get a new partnership announcement in the next quarter"
X Link 2025-12-29T21:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Im looking at you $mcs"
X Link 2025-12-29T21:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$CGX.TO Active on the NCIB in December a fortuitous time to start concurrent with the $wbd panic. Should continue at this pace and along with deleveraging strong box office and hopefully another asset sale sets this up for a good outcome this year. $CGX.TO And there it is. Cineplex Digital Media sold for $70m. Would have liked to see a higher price tag but it's still a material in flow of capital (7% of the convert diluted market cap). Importantly the transaction delevers the balance sheet and makes capital returns $CGX.TO And there it is. Cineplex Digital Media sold for $70m. Would have"
X Link 2026-01-06T16:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$CNK $DBO.TO Language on DBOX not limited to the holiday window but given this was CNK's best holiday since [----] and all the incremental system installs I'd say this is pretty damn confirmatory DBOX royalties have been printing. Great sign for the industry broadly. $cgx.to $imax $DBO.TO Added 150K shares in the mid-80c range today. Healthy pullback and unsurprising profit-taking but think this is one of the more compelling stories into [----]. Expecting a $CNK PR soon on holiday box office numbers which I imagine will highlight a DBOX record over the https://t.co/afcTeonjpF $DBO.TO Added 150K"
X Link 2026-01-06T23:06Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements

"@SigmondThegrey @KJP417 $MCS 🤞"
X Link 2026-01-21T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$DBO.TO assuming I'm reading this Linkedin post correctly that's [--] seats/auditorium (500/15). That's well above the current average of [--] seats/auditorium implying DBOX is not only rolling out across incremental auditoriums (big) but is gaining presence within those auditoriums (very big). Tells you a lot about how the operators feel re demand. No idea why anyone has been selling this. $DBO.TO $DBOXF [--] new auditoriums for a total of [---] seats installed in Australia https://t.co/fXEGk8982V $DBO.TO $DBOXF [--] new auditoriums for a total of [---] seats installed in Australia"
X Link 2026-01-22T00:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$VOD Still easily one of the most thoughtful and asymmetric pitches I've read over the last year. Long both US and UK listed LEAPS. $ASTS $VOD Im sitting here observing the macro / geopolitical set up and just in awe of the opportunity in front of us. Im have a mega whale position in ASTS but for value investors I dont think theres ever been a more obvious trade than what were observing with Vodafone. $ASTS $VOD Im sitting here observing the macro / geopolitical set up and just in awe of the opportunity in front of us. Im have a mega whale position in ASTS but for value investors I dont think"
X Link 2026-01-25T21:31Z [----] followers, 21.7K engagements

"And another aggressive buy at a new [--] year high. "Most management teams have demonstrated the total inability to understand what their businesses are worth. Theyre buying when the stock is up and have no courage to buy when the stock is down"
X Link 2026-01-26T22:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@DarpResearch Problem though is it's not simply a matter of poor execution. It's a fundamental misapprehension of the objective. He is simply using the tool of buybacks for an entirely erroneous purpose"
X Link 2026-01-27T19:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@gezzogero @BerkelKip Im not following how all exchanges having public data is responsive to my tweet that they are beneficiaries of volatility but maybe Im being dense"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@gezzogero @BerkelKip I hear the point on over extrapolation but cyclicality tends to govern within short windows. If one zooms out decades volume growth is has been not only secular but has a positive second derivative"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@octogone20 You might be smoking too much of their product if that's what you think my guy"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@octogone20 Literally $10m annually on a billion market cap. Beyond reasonable"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Just wait until the market finds out about RANCO monetization"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@InvestSpecial @pernasresearch @TenvaCapital @thewritser @gw_investing 🫡"
X Link 2026-01-31T13:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@GFCapPartners @DivinelyLevered Roughly 10% each depending on the day. My preference skews CRON right now as theyre going to be very FCF positive post acquistion and GrowCo online (ogi still struggling with cash conversion) and are returning capital"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Mark unless I'm misunderstanding your comment you appear to be talking past the point being made. If company x is selling large absolute volumes of flower and that category as you note is better positioned for price inflation then that company's earnings has disproportionately high leverage to prices. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018009058062614602 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018009058062614602"
X Link 2026-02-01T17:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Organigram is a microcap with global ambitions that operates a highly regulated CPG business and he spent decades at a multinational mega cap that operates a highly regulated CPG business. Seems like a great fit to me. I don't want a "yo it's really high quality bud" person running this company that's not their sauce"
X Link 2026-02-02T21:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@WSB_redditor @UseThouBrain Brands distribution understanding how large enterprises scale R&D capital markets. He doesn't need to know cannabis agriculture"
X Link 2026-02-02T21:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@NICKIMINAJ Crazy we have to rely on Nicki Minaj for a sane celebrity political take"
X Link 2026-02-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@rospark750 But agree with your analogy"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Worry is competition Big Tobacco by way of new products versions. Quality gap is going to close over time I would think and European experience has not suggested brand loyalty as the market matures. That said TPB only needs to capture a tiny % of the total market a few years out for this to really work. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018788258139062511 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018788258139062511"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@EricWangHermit @CasinoCapital None of thats to say it isnt way too high"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@EricWangHermit @CasinoCapital Patiently awaiting the Daniel Ek pivot"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@EricWangHermit @CasinoCapital Untapped earnings potential is so high and the stock is priced like it never comes. Recipe for a multibagger if it does"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$Haypp Any news driving this $HAYPP Small market cap high growth enormous runway economies of scale operating leverage undemanding multiple. Probably never gets a fair multiple given industry and reg risk but otherwise all the ingredients for [--] bagger returns over a long enough holding period if $HAYPP Small market cap high growth enormous runway economies of scale operating leverage undemanding multiple. Probably never gets a fair multiple given industry and reg risk but otherwise all the ingredients for [--] bagger returns over a long enough holding period if"
X Link 2025-02-07T15:20Z [----] followers, 12.8K engagements

"Doing my part for Q1 earnings $haypp $tpb"
X Link 2026-01-08T16:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Personally think ALP is the best product in the category in the US at the moment but that edge will get competed away. I still lean $Haypp because it explicitly benefits off increased competition but the pouch market is going to grow so much that even a tiny fraction of it makes $TPB a multibagger from here. Competitive risk worries me a lot more than Tucker going off the rails. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015963684808413417 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015963684808413417"
X Link 2026-01-27T01:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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