@pennyondollar Penny on the Dollar
Penny on the Dollar posts on X about $lyb, $dow, $hun, $oln the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [--] #
- [--] Week [-------] -37%
- [--] Month [---------] +8,392%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] -26%
- [--] Month [--] +5.60%
Followers: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] no change
- [--] Month [---] +22%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance 94% stocks 43% countries 14% technology brands 3% travel destinations 2% cryptocurrencies 2% financial services 2% automotive brands 1% products 1% fashion brands 1%
Social topic influence $lyb 20%, $dow #38, $hun 11%, $oln 9%, in the 6%, china 6%, sentiment 6%, liquidity 5%, business 5%, $bak 5%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @kobeissiletter @joinyellowbrick @barchart @business @michaelaarouet @qualityinvest5 @whaleinsider @investingcanons @fcompounders @junkbondinvest @amenabakr @zerohedge @ft @trungtphan @cathiedwood @ekwufinance @cryptokaleo @allkaresearch @ericnuttall @fifteencagr
Top assets mentioned LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Dow Inc (DOW) Huntsman Corporation (HUN) Olin Corp. (OLN) Braskem S.A. American Depositary Shares (BAK) Sasol Limited (SSL) Celanese Corporation (CE) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Westlake Chemical, Corp. (WLK) APA Corp (US) (APA) GM (GM) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Selling [---] times the underlying supply and calling it "liquidity" is the ultimate macro magic trick. This is a good reminder of how small the physical silver market really is and how easy it is to manipulate it - Paper silver to physical silver ratio: 408:1 - Annual silver production: $70B If just 0.25% of paper silver were settled in physical it would wipe out [--] year of https://t.co/xS5xEx1Z8t This is a good reminder of how small the physical silver market really is and how easy it is to manipulate it - Paper silver to physical silver ratio: 408:1 - Annual silver production: $70B If just"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Turns out the boring stuff was the hedge all along $LYB $OLN $DOW $CE $HUN"
X Link 2026-02-02T19:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"ISM Manufacturing just broke a 11-month contraction streak. PMI at [----] vs [----] in December. New Orders at [----] highest since Feb [----]. Thats a restocking signal for US commodity chems. The question is whether its sustainable demand or tariff front-running. $LYB $DOW $HUN $OLN https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018418780909572366 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018418780909572366"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Deloitte expects US chemical production to contract 0.2% in [----]. CERA says margin pressure persists into [----]. Wood Mackenzie says "satisfactory profitability" won't return until the 2030s. And $DOW trades at $30 half its Morningstar fair value of $66. Everyone agrees it's terrible. That's the point. The best time to buy cyclicals is when nobody can imagine them recovering. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019715872911225274 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019715872911225274"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Commodity equities at cycle troughs trade like the world will never need steel fertilizer or energy again. Then the world needs steel fertilizer and energy again"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Investing in chemical companies may cause: portfolio corrosion spontaneous capital combustion and long-term exposure to shareholder dilution. Side effects include bagholding and explaining to your wife what a turnaround story is. $LYB $OLN $DOW $HUN"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is ugly. The fact that $VZLA was already paying 200K pesos/month to organized crime just to operate tells you everything about the real cost of doing business in certain Mexican jurisdictions. Re Vizsla $VZLA $VZLA.to i have run this report (below) thru Google Translate and copypasted the result. Therefore not my hand but it's a reasonable translation of the original. It has important details of what caused the deaths of the VZLA employees. https://t.co/PVQvHlao1c https://t.co/PiYndVaq7B Re Vizsla $VZLA $VZLA.to i have run this report (below) thru Google Translate and copypasted the"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Europes chemical industry is dying in real time Olefin production back to [----] levels. 200+ German plants could close. 25K jobs at risk. This is bullish for US chemicals. Every European cracker that shuts is capacity leaving the global market. $WLK $DOW $LYB run on $2 gas while Europe pays $12. When the cycle turns US producers own the margin. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008474907387048203 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008474907387048203"
X Link 2026-01-06T09:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$APA in the top [--] Highest free cash flow yields in the S&P [---] https://t.co/y2pOg04N9l Highest free cash flow yields in the S&P [---] https://t.co/y2pOg04N9l"
X Link 2026-01-17T12:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"McKinsey just published: the chemical industry has undone [--] years of outperformance in [--] years. TSR: 2.6% annually. Everyone sees: - China overcapacity - European energy cost doom - Demand destruction I see: $DOW at 0.35x book. $LYB at 5x earnings. $HUN near liquidation value. Cycles don't end. Sentiment does. What multiple would get you interested in chemicals https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013607258744144381 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013607258744144381"
X Link 2026-01-20T13:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Heres the blog post for those that are interested: $SSL https://open.substack.com/pub/pennyonthedollar/p/sasol-downgraded-last-week-up-12 $SSL earnings out this morning and the destoning plant is actually working. Sinks tracking better than expected and theyve reopened all those shuttered mining sections. Bumped fuel sales guidance to +5-10%. Nice to see the operational turnaround thesis play out. https://t.co/FJzow2ffp1 https://open.substack.com/pub/pennyonthedollar/p/sasol-downgraded-last-week-up-12 $SSL earnings out this morning and the destoning plant is actually working. Sinks tracking"
X Link 2026-01-23T07:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Another day another Polypropylene price hike. From [----] to 6670+ in a blink. The [----] trend remains relentlessly bullish. $LYB $DOW"
X Link 2026-01-28T15:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$OLN posted an $85.7M loss and the stock dropped 10% after hours. EBITDA down 65% from last year. Freeport's back up they're shutting the Brazil plant in Q1 and Winchester got crushed on copper and propellant costs. Ugly quarter but the thesis hasn't changed. $LYB also reports today I'm expecting similar headline pain. Full write-up coming. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017147903416869349 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017147903416869349"
X Link 2026-01-30T08:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$LYB missed earnings but the stock is holding up in a red tape. Revenue beat cash plan crushed targets ($800M vs $600M goal) and the Q4 loss narrowed massively from last year. The 11% yield isnt well covered but its funded. Can it get worse from here Probably not"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"New on the blog: my views on $OLN and $LYB Q4 earnings. https://open.substack.com/pub/pennyonthedollar/p/chemicals-q4-in-review-the-trough https://open.substack.com/pub/pennyonthedollar/p/chemicals-q4-in-review-the-trough"
X Link 2026-01-31T08:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$LYB guided [----] CapEx to $1.2B. Thats 25% lower than [----] and below their depreciation run rate. This is what bottoming looks like"
X Link 2026-02-02T09:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"New overhang on $BAK thesis: Alagoas Defensoria Pblica just filed with CADE CVM and CGU to block the IG4 deal claiming the restructuring isolates victim assets in a vehicle without backing. The same liability I said was 99.5% settled Regulators now weighing in. This is the tail risk I flagged. But context matters this is a state public defenders office not federal prosecutors. Theyre requesting suspensions and audits not blocking orders. The core thesis remains: irreplaceable assets at 35% of replacement cost Mexico finally running IG4 committed. The question was always whether the path"
X Link 2026-02-03T07:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Alagoas Defensoria trying to block the IG4/Braskem deal. Procedural noise not a deal-killer. Here are my thoughts: $BAK https://open.substack.com/pub/pennyonthedollar/p/braskem-the-alagoas-counterpunch https://open.substack.com/pub/pennyonthedollar/p/braskem-the-alagoas-counterpunch"
X Link 2026-02-03T14:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Macron calling tariffs a structural turning point is the most bullish thing he could say for EU chemicals. Structural turning points get structural policy responses. MACRON: US TARIFFS ON EUROPE ECONOMY ARE A COERCION MECHANISM MACRON: CALLS US TARIFFS A 'GAME CHANGER' STRUCTURAL TURNING POINT MACRON: EUROPE MUST PRESERVE KEY SECTORS INCLUDING CHEMICALS MACRON: US TARIFFS ON EUROPE ECONOMY ARE A COERCION MECHANISM MACRON: CALLS US TARIFFS A 'GAME CHANGER' STRUCTURAL TURNING POINT MACRON: EUROPE MUST PRESERVE KEY SECTORS INCLUDING CHEMICALS"
X Link 2026-02-12T06:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Quick tape read for the chemical sector today: Bearish volumes with a sideways base. Natural gas is flat at $3.96 while Brent sits at $62. The bull case is a margin recovery on lower feedstocks but the bear case of structural overcapacity in China is winning the narrative right now"
X Link 2025-12-23T07:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"We are so $BAK"
X Link 2025-12-24T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@business Copper is the only thing moving faster than the depreciation of the currency its priced in"
X Link 2025-12-26T10:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MichaelAArouet Norway and Switzerland are outliers because they maintained sovereignty over their resources and monetary policy. Most of the Eurozone is trapped in a "one size fits none" interest rate environment that prevents the creative destruction necessary for innovation"
X Link 2025-12-26T10:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Growth is not always a positive for value. If a companys return on invested capital is lower than its cost of funding growth actually destroys value. I prefer firms where historical profits exceed the current market cap suggesting a massive margin of safety"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter The paper silver market is discovering that you cant make solar panels or chips out of rehypothecated IOUs"
X Link 2025-12-27T20:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Just look at that dashed line in [----] where the red area just takes off. The second the West froze Russia's reserves the "trust us" era of the dollar ledger was over. Goldman calls it a "sea change" in risk perception. Central banks are now stacking [--] tonnes of gold a month which is literally 4x the pre-2022 average. Turns out when you turn the global ledger into a weapon people suddenly remember why they want the one asset that doesnt have a "delete" button. $GLD https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005400606857711753 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005400606857711753"
X Link 2025-12-28T22:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@QualityInvest5 Much of this expansion is a "quality" trade where investors treat Apple as a consumer staple safe haven effectively compressing the equity risk premium. When liquidity is abundant capital gravitates toward the most robust balance sheet regardless of the underlying growth rate"
X Link 2025-12-29T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"China just dropped to $688.7B in US Treasury holdings. Lowest since November [----] Down 47% from the [----] peak of $1.32T now 3rd place behind Japan and UK. Gold reserves Up [--] straight months. And you are bearish gold anon"
X Link 2025-12-30T08:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Silver bouncing 5% after yesterdays 8.7% wipeout the largest single-day drop since [----]. CME margin hike forced liquidations. But physical demand hasnt flinched. Shanghai premium still $8+ over COMEX. 158% YTD gain. Fifth straight year of deficit. This dip gets bought"
X Link 2025-12-30T12:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GM up 60% in [----]. All-time high above $80. Best year since bankruptcy. And the CFO says its still undervalued As long as the stock remains as undervalued as it is the priority is to buy back shares. [--] years of earnings beats. [--] straight months of gains. $TSLA +12%. $F +34%. This is what happens when value finally gets re-rated. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006024417101431178 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006024417101431178"
X Link 2025-12-30T15:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@WhaleInsider Proof that being boring is the most aggressive growth strategy there is"
X Link 2025-12-30T20:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"In [----] Japan represented 45% of global equity market cap. The U.S. was 29%. Thirty-five years later the numbers have inverted. U.S. at 64%. Japan at 6%. The rotation took three decades two lost decades for Japan and a complete reimagining of which economy would dominate the 21st century. Now look at this chart through that lens. 64% concentration is extreme by any historical standard. The last time it was this high Never actually. Not even during the post-WWII period when the U.S. was literally the only industrial economy left standing. Markets have a way of mean-reverting on very long time"
X Link 2025-12-30T20:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@InvestingCanons Revenue is vanity profit is sanity but the balance sheet is the actual gravity"
X Link 2025-12-31T15:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"US chemicals got absolutely smoked in [----]. $DOW down 44%. $LYB cratered. Dividend cuts across the board. But heres the thing everyone already knows this. The sector is trading like its going out of business. Its not. Cycles turn. And when this one does youll wish youd paid attention at these valuations. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006440213183070355 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006440213183070355"
X Link 2025-12-31T18:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Peter Lynch made a fortune buying Taco Bell at $1 when everyone else was running for the exits. No debt business was fine. PepsiCo ended up paying $42/share. Fast forward to [----]. Apple drops 60%. Sitting on $26B cash zero debt iPhone selling like crazy. Same exact setup. Lynch didn't touch it. Even legends forget their own playbook sometimes. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006524231786336595 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006524231786336595"
X Link 2026-01-01T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Happy [----]. The global economy grew 3.2% last year. Sounds healthy until you realize AI investment is the only thing keeping it upright. PwC says AI could add $15.7 trillion by [----]. 70% goes to China and America. Everyone else gets to watch. Welcome to the future"
X Link 2026-01-01T07:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@F_Compounders Brown-Formans 29% ROIC allowed them to generate massive free cash flow with minimal reinvestment while Costco had to plow more back into the business to sustain its scale"
X Link 2026-01-01T08:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2025 in review: $MU: +239% $PLTR: +135% $AMD: +77% $GOOG: +65% S&P [---] up 16.6%. Third straight year of double-digit returns. The Shiller P/E just hit its second highest reading in [---] years. The only time it was higher Months before the dot-com crash. Every Wall Street analyst expects gains in [----]. Every single one. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006751488056369236 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006751488056369236"
X Link 2026-01-01T15:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2025s winners: AI stocks data centers Palantir (+100%+). 2025s losers: Nobodys talking about them. Health insurers: UNH -32% (worst Dow stock). Molina -40%. Centene -52%. Consumer names: Chipotle -40%. Deckers -50%. Lululemon -45%. The hated sectors are now trading at single-digit P/Es. The loved ones at 180x. History says rotate. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007114577880686636 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007114577880686636"
X Link 2026-01-02T15:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Premarket: $VLO +8.16% $PBF +16.76% $CVX +7.78% From yesterdays newsletter: The clearest beneficiaries are the complex Gulf Coast refiners Chevron captures upstream volume growth and downstream margin expansion simultaneously"
X Link 2026-01-05T11:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@junkbondinvest Proof that the most effective restructuring tool isn't a spreadsheet its a transport plane"
X Link 2026-01-06T08:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter The Wall Street as landlord trade just hit a very expensive regulatory ceiling"
X Link 2026-01-07T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Amena__Bakr Good luck explaining to the CAPEX cycle that it needs to move at the speed of a campaign rally"
X Link 2026-01-08T06:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Barchart My portfolio is 40% tech 40% energy and 20% Tropicana. Diversification is key"
X Link 2026-01-08T09:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The real question isn't the number of cuts but whether the Fed is prepared to accept a higher floor for inflation in exchange for financial stability. FED'S MIRAN: I'M LOOKING FOR ABOUT [---] POINTS OF CUTS IN [----] FED'S MIRAN: I'M LOOKING FOR ABOUT [---] POINTS OF CUTS IN 2026"
X Link 2026-01-08T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@zerohedge If you aren't early you're exit liquidity. Even for government data"
X Link 2026-01-09T16:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@FT Theyve already de-risked their offshore Guyana plays; why pivot back to a jurisdiction that hasn't respected a contract since 2007"
X Link 2026-01-10T07:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"S&P Global forecasts a 10M+ tonne copper deficit by [----]. The math is brutal: demand grows linearly while supply plateaus around [----]. New mines take 15-20 years to permit and build. If youre not already in the ground youre not solving this gap. The question isnt whether copper prices go higher. Its which producers can actually grow into this deficit and which ones are just selling you a story. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010115275237077253 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010115275237077253"
X Link 2026-01-10T22:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Argus Media reports US polyethylene suppliers will push hard for January price increases with some likely to stick in Q1. But with [--] million tonnes of new US capacity arriving in late [----] and demand forecasts flat buyers hold the cards. Classic trench warfare. Producers need higher prices (ethane cracker margins just hit [----] lows) but buyers can see the supply wave coming and will negotiate accordingly. What it means for chemicals broadly: This is the late-cycle grind. Not a crash not a recovery either. Just a market waiting for capacity rationalization to run its course. Europe is already"
X Link 2026-01-11T07:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Incredible Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: https://t.co/5dfrkByGyX https://t.co/O4ecNaYaGH Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: https://t.co/5dfrkByGyX https://t.co/O4ecNaYaGH"
X Link 2026-01-12T07:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Asset class returns since [----]. Ritholtzs long-term data: stocks 10% gold 5.6% bonds 4.5% housing 4.2% cash 3.4% inflation 3.0%. A few observations: The equity premium is real. 10% nominal over nearly a century is remarkable but it required holding through a 90% drawdown in the 1930s and multiple 50%+ declines since. The return compensates for the volatility. Golds 5.6% looks modest but thats 2.6% real. Not a compounder but its done its job as a store of value. The yellow metal tends to work in specific regimes - the 1970s 2000-2011 2019-present - rather than consistently. Housing at 4.2%"
X Link 2026-01-14T07:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Something interesting from Global Liquidity Indexes on the presidential cycle. Year [--] shows the strongest EPS growth of any year in the term 12.56% on average since [----]. But heres the thing: it also delivers the worst price returns at just 0.93%. Thats a pretty significant divergence. Strong earnings dead money. Multiples compress. Were in Year [--] now. If history rhymes expect solid fundamentals but a market that refuses to pay up for them. The multiple expansion party tends to wait until Year [--]. Not a prediction just a pattern worth keeping in the back of your mind. Source:"
X Link 2026-01-14T11:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"NATO ally sending troops to defend another NATO allys territory from a third NATO ally. BREAKING: Germany sending soldiers to defend Greenland. BREAKING: Germany sending soldiers to defend Greenland"
X Link 2026-01-14T19:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Investors are the most bearish on oil in nearly a decade Goldman Sachs survey: 59% of [----] clients are bearish or slightly bearish on crude. Near the most pessimistic level since [----]. CTAs are 91% short WTI. Non-commercial positioning at 15+ year lows. Record number of institutional investors now call oil their favorite short. The last time sentiment was this negative July [----]. Oil then rallied from $70 to $114. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011692578396090376 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011692578396090376"
X Link 2026-01-15T06:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TrungTPhan $382B is a lot of "oxygen." At this point Berkshire is less of a conglomerate and more of a private central bank"
X Link 2026-01-15T07:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CathieDWood Tax cuts in an era of 30% debt-to-GDP were a stimulus. Tax cuts at 120% debt-to-GDP without spending reform are just a massive bet on a productivity miracle that hasn't arrived yet"
X Link 2026-01-16T06:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Barchart The only thing with a longer half-life than the fuel is the time it takes to build a new reactor"
X Link 2026-01-16T09:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ekwufinance Even if we find more the energy required to extract and refine lower-grade ores at depth will keep the structural deficit wider for longer than the market currently prices in"
X Link 2026-01-17T08:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"We are seeing a global rebalancing where the U.S. is no longer the sole provider of security and capital. Buckle up. Opinion: Countries that once saw American success as their own now view the US as an adversary and Beijing as a model. https://t.co/vurqemDguk https://t.co/kpF6joO2Nq Opinion: Countries that once saw American success as their own now view the US as an adversary and Beijing as a model. https://t.co/vurqemDguk https://t.co/kpF6joO2Nq"
X Link 2026-01-17T08:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"S&P [---] up 78% over three years. Forward P/E above [--]. Buffett indicator screaming. And everyones calling for 15% more in [----]. The last time valuations hit this level [----]. Meanwhile Trump wants to slap 10% tariffs on [--] European allies to buy Greenland. But sure were going way higher. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012785371533246886 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012785371533246886"
X Link 2026-01-18T07:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Central banks stress-testing for extraterrestrial disclosure is somehow not the weirdest macro risk Ive seen this cycle. BREAKING: The Bank of England has been advised to prepare for a major financial crisis that could be triggered by an official announcement confirming the existence of aliens. BREAKING: The Bank of England has been advised to prepare for a major financial crisis that could be triggered by an official announcement confirming the existence of aliens"
X Link 2026-01-18T10:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CryptoKaleo The "silver is boring" narrative usually lasts until someone realizes the solar and EV sectors actually need the physical atoms"
X Link 2026-01-19T22:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The market pays you to be uncomfortable. Consensus trades feel safe but yield index returns. The real edge lives in the sectors everyones abandoned where sentiment is worst multiples are compressed and nobody wants to hear the bull case"
X Link 2026-01-19T22:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So who ended the day in the green"
X Link 2026-01-20T21:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"73 barrels of oil per ounce of gold. Thats where we are. The historical average is [--]. Oil has never been cheaper vs. gold outside of COVID. This is the Goldilocks zone for junior miners. $GDX $GLD"
X Link 2026-01-21T05:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Stifel keeping the faith on $GOT.V $5.00 CAD target Buy rating intact. Latest drill hit: 6.10m at [-----] g/t gold. Theyve put [---] km of holes in the ground over four seasons now. Another 50+ km locked and loaded for [----]. Stifels take is the markets not giving them enough credit for grade quality. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014237977023545853 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014237977023545853"
X Link 2026-01-22T07:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Uncle Sams portfolio looking like a wallstreetbets screenshot. Diamond hands Mr. President. BREAKING: Intel $INTC extends its decline to -17% on the day now on track for its biggest daily drop in nearly [--] years. The US government's position in Intel is down -$4 billion today. https://t.co/StG9wWPX9Y BREAKING: Intel $INTC extends its decline to -17% on the day now on track for its biggest daily drop in nearly [--] years. The US government's position in Intel is down -$4 billion today. https://t.co/StG9wWPX9Y"
X Link 2026-01-24T05:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"RT @ALLKAResearch: $BAK $PBR A very beautiful picture"
X Link 2026-02-04T10:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"JP Morgan just downgraded $SSL to Underweight. Wall Street hates it when South African chemical companies trade at 2.7x EBITDA and [--] cents on the dollar of book value. Adding more"
X Link 2026-01-16T15:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$QQQ -2% and the chems are ripping. Crowded trades unwind. Unloved assets catch a bid. Tale as old as time"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"RT @ericnuttall: Dr. Al-Qahtani of OPEC: major gap in necessary investment to meet demand growth through [----] given peaked US shale and pea"
X Link 2026-02-04T11:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Risk is back on the menu and the menu only has one price: higher. Oil spikes on this: NUCLEAR TALKS WERE CANCELED ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE IRANIANS' REFUSAL TO ENGAGE IN NON-NUCLEAR ISSUES - AXIOS Oil spikes on this: NUCLEAR TALKS WERE CANCELED ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE IRANIANS' REFUSAL TO ENGAGE IN NON-NUCLEAR ISSUES - AXIOS"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HUN at $10 is a textbook deep value dislocation. Trading at 0.53x Tangible Book with the Advanced Materials segment alone worth the entire Market Cap. The market is effectively pricing the massive MDI assets at negative value. Capitulation is complete (dividend cut flushed the income tourists) FCF remains positive and new US tariffs (376%+) just walled off Chinese competition. Youre buying irreplicable industrial assets at 50c on the dollar. Asymmetric https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1994313897042383238 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1994313897042383238"
X Link 2025-11-28T07:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"You are buying a dollar of assets for fifty cents because the market thinks the house is on fire. $HUN is priced for an industrial ice age that likely won't happen. We see 50% upside in a base case and 200%+ in a bull cyclical recovery. Read the full analysis here: https://open.substack.com/pub/pennyonthedollar/p/huntsman-corporation-buying-the-capitulationr=6xclse&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/pennyonthedollar/p/huntsman-corporation-buying-the-capitulationr=6xclse&utm_medium=ios"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Everyone is hating on Europe chems (rightfully) but the supply destruction is real. $LYB cutting rates $HUN outage. we are nearing the "capitulation via shutdowns" phase. Long specialties with EU exposure might actually work in Q1 '26 if the destocking finally ends"
X Link 2025-12-04T07:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The most important signal in the chemical sector this week isn't the price action but the fact that Norges Bank is quietly accumulating shares in both $HUN and $OLN. Sovereign wealth stepping in to provide liquidity during a cyclical trough is how floors are established. They are taking the other side of the trade while weak hands panic over dividend cuts and near-term volatility variance. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000241052796473726 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000241052796473726"
X Link 2025-12-14T16:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"BMO capitulating on $LYB might be the sentiment bottom. When the staunchest defenders turn bearish and threaten the dividend you're usually [--] months from the actual turn. Max pessimism is getting close"
X Link 2025-12-16T20:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"China capacity gluts and destocking have crushed sentiment. But $LYB is generating massive cash flow despite headline losses. This is an asymmetric bet on mean reversion with a 12% yield to wait. Read the full thesis here: https://pennyonthedollar.substack.com/p/lyondellbasell-a-12-yield-at-the https://pennyonthedollar.substack.com/p/lyondellbasell-a-12-yield-at-the"
X Link 2025-12-18T14:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Japan just finalized its ban on PFHxS today. The global war on PFAS and "forever chemicals" isn't slowing down. If your specialty chemicals portfolio isn't ahead of this regulatory curve you are holding a ticking time bomb. $DOW $LYB $HUN $OLN"
X Link 2025-12-26T14:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"March 2000: $CSCO hit $500 billion. Worlds most valuable company. Trading at 39x sales. December 2025: Cisco is $306 billion. Stock just recovered to its dot-com high [--] years later. $NVDIA is now worth $4.4 trillion. 8x Ciscos bubble peak. History doesnt repeat. But valuations rhyme. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006080320123097570 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006080320123097570"
X Link 2025-12-30T19:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter Turns out the most effective monetary easing is just removing the person in charge of the printing press"
X Link 2026-01-06T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@fifteenCAGR @KobeissiLetter None tbh havent looked into it"
X Link 2026-01-06T21:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Some positive news for $BAK $BAK BRKM5 - Braskem Melhor cenrio de todos paga e abre negociao posterior com a IG4 https://t.co/dviieuHDv4 $BAK BRKM5 - Braskem Melhor cenrio de todos paga e abre negociao posterior com a IG4 https://t.co/dviieuHDv4"
X Link 2026-01-07T07:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Great day for chemicals $LYB $DOW $HUN $OLN"
X Link 2026-01-08T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Despite todays bad news the $OLN dip is getting bought"
X Link 2026-01-09T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HUN: Citi raises target to $12 (from $10.50) maintains Neutral. Thats the second $12 target this week after UBS. Goldman still at Sell ($9.50) Mizuho Underperform ($8). Analysts finally chasing price after the 15% weekly rip. Is the chemicals sector upgrade cycle beginning https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011908650902736947 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011908650902736947"
X Link 2026-01-15T21:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$BWE dropped their Q4 operational update last week. Soft numbers bottom of guidance Golfinho maintenance ran long. Busy writing up why the thesis hasnt changed and Im still long"
X Link 2026-01-19T18:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@WolfBBoehme Not familiar with $EMN but $LYB is a good play. Expect some volatility though"
X Link 2026-01-20T15:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SSL earnings out this morning and the destoning plant is actually working. Sinks tracking better than expected and theyve reopened all those shuttered mining sections. Bumped fuel sales guidance to +5-10%. Nice to see the operational turnaround thesis play out. Happy I added when that JPM guidance came out last week. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014271171932361133 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014271171932361133"
X Link 2026-01-22T09:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$LYB earnings next Friday. Street wants $0.18 down 70% from last year. Stock's at 1.5x book cheapest since [----] yielding 10.7%. When expectations are this low you don't need a blowout. You just need "not as bad as feared.""
X Link 2026-01-24T04:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"US ethylene +7% in January. Propylene +1%. Most still bearish on chemicals But Gulf Coast crackers at partial capacity. Q1 turnarounds pulling 1M+ MT offline. Inventories drawing. Export arb wide open to Europe. Sentiment is max pain. Spot prices say otherwise. $LYB $DOW"
X Link 2026-01-24T11:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Chemical sector 2026: - Global production growth: 1.9% (down from 2.6%) - US growth: 0.3% - 20%+ of producers losing money - [--] years of declining profits S&P calls this "bottomed out." I call it: everyone who wanted to sell has sold"
X Link 2026-01-26T06:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"What Im really watching is the second-order stuff. EM currencies get stronger their central banks stop liquidating reserves to defend. That means less forced dollar buying. It feeds on itself. A monthly close below support would just be confirming what bonds have been telling us. With just [--] trading days left in the month: The dollar index has broken below a major support level for the first time in [--] years. The world is not positioned for this in my view. The debasement trade is now well understood but the next phase is a broad weakening of the US https://t.co/hRvz34de7p With just [--] trading"
X Link 2026-01-27T06:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Polypropylene just bounced off December lows. [----] CNY/T and climbing. When commodity prices inflect the operating leverage in chemicals is violent. Every dollar of margin improvement flows straight to the bottom line. $DOW and $LYB are still priced for permanent trough margins. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016068801465315796 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016068801465315796"
X Link 2026-01-27T08:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The $DXY doesn't care about narratives. It cares about: - Debt service exceeding $1T - Twin deficits with no fix in sight - Trading partners actively de-dollarizing You can ignore the balance sheet or you can position for it"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$DOW reports earnings today. Street expects a loss of $0.46/share with revenue down 8.8% YoY. Stocks already down 33% over the past year. The real story isnt Dow though. Its the whole sector. China added 8M tons of polyethylene capacity in [----] and the US Gulf Coast is adding another 2M tons mid-year. Overcapacity everywhere. What matters on the call: how much of that $1B cost-cutting target theyve captured and what theyre seeing on export pricing. Thats your read-through for US chemicals. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016776772482748563 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016776772482748563"
X Link 2026-01-29T07:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$DOW posted a $1.48B loss this quarter and the headline looks brutal but most of that is non-cash noise from impairments and pension charges adjusted earnings actually beat the street. More importantly management isn't waiting around for the macro to save them. They announced "Transform to Outperform": [----] jobs cut up to $1B in restructuring costs front-loaded into [----] all chasing a $2B EBITDA uplift by [----]. Cash flow is tight right now at $298M vs $800M+ a year ago so the margin for error is thin. But if they hit that productivity target any modest recovery in global demand sends margins"
X Link 2026-01-29T13:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Hope this gets resolved asap $VZLA @Privatffm I think it is very sad news as people are still kidnapped. I think the company tried to negotiate a solution to it but it leaked out in the press which is likely riskier for those people. Flip side is that now there will be pressure on the Mexican Gov to act and when they send @Privatffm I think it is very sad news as people are still kidnapped. I think the company tried to negotiate a solution to it but it leaked out in the press which is likely riskier for those people. Flip side is that now there will be pressure on the Mexican Gov to act and"
X Link 2026-01-29T14:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"TACO Wednesday *IRAN'S ARAGHCHI CONFIRMS NUCLEAR TALKS WITH US IN OMAN FRIDAY punk'd *IRAN'S ARAGHCHI CONFIRMS NUCLEAR TALKS WITH US IN OMAN FRIDAY punk'd"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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