@paulnovosad Avatar @paulnovosad Paul Novosad

Paul Novosad posts on X about in the, this is, india, ai the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence countries 11.46% technology brands 7.64% finance #5085 social networks 2.55% automotive brands 1.27% stocks 1.27% travel destinations 1.27% financial services 0.64% musicians 0.64%

Social topic influence in the 9.55%, this is 7.01%, india 6.37%, ai 5.73%, education 5.1%, if you 4.46%, the most 3.82%, level 3.18%, the world 3.18%, status 3.18%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joefrancis505 @indglish @mgaldino @adrienmatray @atabarrok @stationerycar @mindmechanical @ryans_burner @soumitrashukla9 @sethposting @markvalorian @traceyryniec @tnendzone @vehementmaybe @nerland87 @korenmiklos @itaisher @bhagwatvineetb @evavivalt @alexolegimas

Top assets mentioned Helen Of Troy Ltd (HELE) Goldman Sachs (GS) Noble Corporation (NE)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"After an hours-long session of vibe-coding I get more done but I learn a lot less than I would have from hours of coding. Especially when there is an LLM in the loop nothing is more draining than repeated low-return prompt engineering"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:55Z 29.9K followers, 10.5K engagements

"This is the risk of the moltbot emergence. Not that theyre conscious but that having tens of thousands of highly capable agents working together to do random shit could be destabilizing in all kinds of ways. for example https://t.co/EMTh2FbJpG for example https://t.co/EMTh2FbJpG"
X Link 2026-01-31T01:28Z 29.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Insanely useful Claude Code workflow: Explain step by step why my sample dropped by 60%"
X Link 2026-01-31T13:01Z 30K followers, 11K engagements

"As an aside this was Codex not Claude Code. Claude Code is the Kleenex of command-line agents"
X Link 2026-01-31T22:48Z 30K followers, [----] engagements

"Hot take: in fact you can cast a black man to play Lincoln. Its called art and you can do whatever the fuck you want. This Helen of Troy conversation is some of the stupidest shit on Twitter and thats saying something. You can't cast a black man to play Lincoln or a white woman to play King w/o altering the essence of the story. But w/ Helen of Troy the essential attribute is beauty not historically accurate ethnicityno one complained when the German actress Diane Kruger played her. You can't cast a black man to play Lincoln or a white woman to play King w/o altering the essence of the"
X Link 2026-02-03T19:05Z 30.1K followers, 19.7K engagements

"Ohhhh but it changes the nature of the story. Why are you telling the story again if not to change its nature Every version of the Iliad is historically inaccurate we know only the tiniest tiniest bit about Homers time. 99% of what we know is embellished conjecture anyway"
X Link 2026-02-03T19:08Z 30K followers, [----] engagements

"Students are mostly wrong about this. They are so risk averse it feels like their professional life will be over if they don't stay on the most elite path (which weirdly is banking or consulting). But at every career stage the good people move up and the bad ones go down. Honestly the huge focus on getting into a good college PhD program Goldman Sachs etc. seems to reflect a deep disbelief in the eventual efficiency of labor markets. Nobody seems to believe any more that if you just develop skills the skills will pay off eventually Honestly the huge focus on getting into a good college PhD"
X Link 2026-02-04T01:53Z 30.4K followers, 329.4K engagements

"@Nerland87 @FangYi11101 Strong disagree you can see the value changes even from elite college freshmen with noble aspirations to elite college seniors for whom it's private equity or bust"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:35Z 30.7K followers, [---] engagements

"AI trillionaires will want to live in a prosperous society to feel that the people who work for them and serve them are doing well that they themselves are fair and generous. So they will support basic incomes taxation support for good public services. But there will be limits to that sphere of generosity and it will extend as far as they can see. There will be a narrative. The people outside that sphere will be the bad people the criminals the illegals the lazy the undeserving. These will be shithole places and the trillionaires will tell themselves they are shitholes because of the bad"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:49Z 30.8K followers, [----] engagements

"Folks in Silicon Valley love to talk about Universal Basic Income. But they don't really mean universal. They mean: for the good people the people in our neighborhoods the people like us"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:50Z 30.8K followers, [----] engagements

"I hear people say "I have so much latent knowledge about working with data knowledge that can only be won by getting your hands dirty writing the code bashing away for years becoming an expert." I feel this in my bones too but I think it's wrong. Young people are just not going to learn Python R Julia not when you can just say "do the thing" and get the result that would have taken hours of coding debugging (and yes learning). We have to get used to a world with vibe-data-coding in addition to vibe-coding. People will make embarrassing mistakes for a while and get all kinds of things wrong"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:40Z 30.5K followers, 17.6K engagements

"@korenmiklos Yes new ways of talking to the data are what the new world will bring. It won't be with code but hands will still be dirty. At least in 2026"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:51Z 29.9K followers, [---] engagements

"Bad Bunny halftime show was incredible but ehhh I think it was the wrong move for [----]. They should have paired him with a country singer"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:44Z 30.8K followers, [----] engagements

"Obviously a show for the ages bold and art etc etc and maybe the rave media reviews will convince the voters that they like this. But I think more likely this was a gift to the politicians who thrive on making us polarized"
X Link 2026-02-09T13:47Z 30.1K followers, [---] engagements

"This is so dumb. Most Harvard students are smart but theyre not infinitely smart at everything. You can get into Harvard and still deserve a C in organic chemistry. Nobody is good at everything. Harvard has proposed a cap on A grades and students are not happy: It misses the point of college which is to network go out there have fun. It would create so much pressure where life wouldnt be worth that much to live. We pay to go here to get the product which is https://t.co/akyPCxbyVV Harvard has proposed a cap on A grades and students are not happy: It misses the point of college which is to"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:57Z 30.7K followers, 13.4K engagements

"Irish guy married an American no crime not even a parking ticket. If US citizens were treated this way in other countries there would be a diplomatic incident. Ireland should threaten to throw out Apple. Jesus if this is how we treat the Irish If US citizens were treated this way in other countries there would be a diplomatic incident. Ireland should threaten to throw out Apple. Jesus if this is how we treat the Irish"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:15Z 30.2K followers, 811.7K engagements

"They said they were going after gangsters"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:19Z 30.6K followers, 16.8K engagements

"Textbook example of a holdup problem. Solve for the effect on future investment. The next bridge Canada builds will be to China. Or maybe Greenland. Our President is such a whiner. https://t.co/NI46zRpnEB Our President is such a whiner. https://t.co/NI46zRpnEB"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:22Z 30.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Air quality in U.S. cities was better than in German cities in [----]. Those positions have reversedmainly because of North American fires. Were showing average air pollution in the worst three months of the year. 2/"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:59Z 30.6K followers, [----] engagements

"You can see the same smoke-driven trend in Toronto and Montreal air pollution was getting better and then suddenly got much worse. 3/"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:59Z 30.6K followers, [----] engagements

"The regional patterns are striking. Lots of GDP growth in East and South Asia but East Asian cities are improving air quality a lot South Asia not much at all. But is it the Kuznets Curve The big question will be whether South Asia follows Chinas path as it gets richer. 4/"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:59Z 30.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The cleanest air in our sample is in Auckland with the Australian cities right behind. 7/"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:59Z 30.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@soumitrashukla9 No Codex you don't need to create a skill that lets you reproduce v5 of the thing we iteratively built together"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:11Z 30.5K followers, [---] engagements

"The 17-year-old saw me tweeting and says I should man up and do a 15-hour Twitch stream where i live-audiobook it and provide running commentary as I go. Thinking about it watch this space"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:27Z 30.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Preamble: my notes on Studwell's opus How Asia Works Chapter [--] of the Africa book tomorrow or so https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/2021444824386138430 https://t.co/vET85K5rIA https://x.com/paulnovosad/status/2021444824386138430 https://t.co/vET85K5rIA"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:44Z 30.6K followers, [----] engagements

"@indglish Interesting this was one of Fukuyama's arguments about lack of state capacity in Africa as well. Though lots of war hasn't worked out so great for Cambodia"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:28Z 30.6K followers, [--] engagements

"@itaisher I don't think "these papers" is a category. If I was going to finish this project the paper quality would be as high as any of my projects. It's just that the work was accelerated by 99%. But it wouldn't surprise me if we start seeing this without quality refinement as well"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:18Z 30.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@joefrancis505 It's not slop. The paper is accurate and it would be thorough if I finished it"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:22Z 30.7K followers, [----] engagements

"@sethposting Maybe if I make the line thicker and fade the points out a bit"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:39Z 30.7K followers, [---] engagements

"@aniketapanjwani Strangely absent from your list: doing work that is substantive and important for the real world"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:14Z 30.7K followers, [----] engagements

"@mgaldino @BhagwatVineetb ChatGPT+ $20/month"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:36Z 30.7K followers, [--] engagements

"@mgaldino @BhagwatVineetb ChatGPT+ gives you Codex"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:49Z 30.7K followers, [--] engagements

"@Steven_Strauss Ugh totally"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:17Z 30.7K followers, [---] engagements

"Didnt they make an announcement like this two weeks ago but then not change anything"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:44Z 30.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@evavivalt @AdrienMatray @ahall_research @cblatts @alexolegimas WildI feel exactly the opposite My meta thought is that it is very hard for individual users to develop an accurate sense of which models are better at what. Nobody has time to run the experiment of repeatedly giving identical prompts to both plus the models keep changing"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:13Z 30.8K followers, [---] engagements

"Many devs now are operating at a way higher intensity level than a year ago. You ship 10x more but instead of spending the day in flow state you are manically bouncing from agent to agent and doing harder and more draining mental work and with this new background anxiety"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:21Z 30.8K followers, [----] engagements

"Devs are producing 10x more getting paid the same. Unless salaries grow a lot the relative returns to being in a big firm will go downyoure suddenly earning a way smaller share of your marginal product. We could see another startup boom"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:23Z 30.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@AlecStapp Interestingbut you only notice OSHA rules at the margin. Most of the changes since [----] (like PPE fall mitigation etc) are just normal operation now not OSHA compliance"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:26Z 30.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@soumitrashukla9 @danshipper @OpenAI @every We need a pause"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:21Z 30.8K followers, [--] engagements

"@varma_ashwin97 @deanwball An example that comes to mind is opposition to digitization of government services in India for reasons of privacy"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:44Z 30.8K followers, [--] engagements

"I'm not a tinfoil hat person generally but this is a funny detail to mention in passing. Man dies of hanging in a jail cell and nobody knows what happened to the noose. Tight ship"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:20Z 30.9K followers, 47.2K engagements

"We built an interactive site showing air pollution vs GDP changes in cities around the world. Some highlights in this thread and you can try it yourself. Here are the biggest three cities in India (Yellow) China (red) and Germany (Orange). 1/"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:59Z 30.9K followers, 26.4K engagements

"I feel safe in my job. We're at least [--] years away from an AI that can fill out this required janky Oracle Form that only opens in Internet Explorer"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:07Z 30.9K followers, 19.1K engagements

"@lugaricano It's most exhausting when it's new and you don't have tools for dealing with it"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:25Z 30.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@markvalorian Life insurance is an event contract"
X Link 2026-02-15T21:42Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Super interesting article. In the background it's a huge U.S. failure that we don't have the engineers and innovators to build more productive plants in the U.S. on our own"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:05Z 30.9K followers, 30.2K engagements

"Studwell's "How Asia Works" is one of my favorite development books. He asks the big questions which many development economists have gotten scared of doing. He has perhaps the best explanation of http://x.com/i/article/2021424097545068544 http://x.com/i/article/2021424097545068544"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:42Z 30.9K followers, 16K engagements

"Codex adddiction is approaching the Video Lottery Terminal stage. I dont want to take a bathroom break in case it asks me do you want to proceed while Im away"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:50Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@Mainer999 Never attribute to malice what is easily explained by incompetence"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:03Z 30.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@ashdgandhi Wait what Whats the point of doing research if not to learn useful things about the world If AI could do this that would be fantastic Think of all the policy problems we could resolve"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:11Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@ashdgandhi I dont want my cancer cured if the discovery came from an AI says approximately nobody"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:12Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Local event organizers will have so much more capability. In the last ten years our outdoor events like running and bike races have better production values than the Olympics did [--] years ago. Organization drones timing music. it's awesome"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:26Z 30.9K followers, [---] engagements

"Local journalists can do deep dive data analysis on town meetings and police blotters. They can much easily track EVERYTHING that is going on"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:23Z 30.9K followers, [---] engagements

"If US citizens were treated this way in other countries there would be a diplomatic incident. Ireland should threaten to throw out Apple. Jesus if this is how we treat the Irish The Irish Times this morning has the harrowing story of an Irish citizen with a valid American work visa married to an American citizen and no criminal record. Yet he was grabbed disappeared and set to a concentration camp in Texas where he is forced to endure appalling The Irish Times this morning has the harrowing story of an Irish citizen with a valid American work visa married to an American citizen and no"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:09Z 30.9K followers, 639.8K engagements

"How stupid is this Hyundai is building an $8 billion factory in Georgia and ICE is imprisoning company staff who are on business trips from South Korea. So much for investing in manufacturing"
X Link 2025-09-05T11:57Z 30.9K followers, 2.9M engagements

"Hes right but you can mitigate a lot of this stress by letting go of the myth that which college you go to is more important than your capabilities and character. Raise your kids to be smart decent and hard working and they will do great no matter which colllege they go to. Unfortunately many elite parents are raising their teens with a primary objective of gaming the college admission system and then their kids get into a good college but they miss the parts about being smart decent and hard working. In fact they learn the opposite as they game and lie on their admissions and pretend to be"
X Link 2025-12-14T16:13Z 30.9K followers, 179.7K engagements

"I was writing about land reform in West Bengal last night and was curious if it had persistent effects on the ownership distribution. So I did what anyone would do I* wrote an academic paper on it Turns out yes 1/"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:33Z 30.9K followers, 310.2K engagements

"Do we just stop putting any value at all on this stuff If there's not a massive data collection or deep methods insight is it just a jargony blog post 5/"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:39Z 30.9K followers, 14.3K engagements

"Ok to be fair the result isn't quite correct. The result depends on which state you use as a control group. Here's the same paper but with Jharkhand as the control group instead of West Bengal. Land reform was completely undone West Bengal has worse land inequality 6/"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:43Z 30.9K followers, 12.5K engagements

"I just question how the current system can continue to operate. Is it "cheating" to build an entire journal article with AI Surely not if it's asking a good question and providing a good answer. But if your living depends on publishing papers like these. 10/"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:52Z 30.9K followers, 19.2K engagements

"These are real papers by the way not just abstracts. Land reform was persistent: Land reform was not persistent: You are fooling yourself if you think work like this isn't around the corner from being publishable. 11/ https://paulnovosad.com/land-reform/land_reform_jharkhand.pdf https://paulnovosad.com/land-reform/land_reform_odisha.pdf https://paulnovosad.com/land-reform/land_reform_jharkhand.pdf https://paulnovosad.com/land-reform/land_reform_odisha.pdf"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:09Z 30.9K followers, 12.5K engagements

"If you're curious about using border discontinuities to think about effects of land reform in India here is an interactive dashboard where you can compare West Bengal and Kerala with any of its neighbors. 12/ https://paulnovosad.com/land-reform/land_reform_explorer.html https://paulnovosad.com/land-reform/land_reform_explorer.html"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:14Z 30.9K followers, 16.8K engagements

"Academic publishing is going for a ride stay safe out there 13/"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:15Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"I wrote a decent paper with AI. It took me about [--] hours from start to finish including an interactive choose-your-own-border-RD-adventure its a what are we even doing here kind of day. I was writing about land reform in West Bengal last night and was curious if it had persistent effects on the ownership distribution. So I did what anyone would do I* wrote an academic paper on it Turns out yes 1/ https://t.co/iBb8rlBOFP I was writing about land reform in West Bengal last night and was curious if it had persistent effects on the ownership distribution. So I did what anyone would do I* wrote an"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:38Z 30.9K followers, 200.8K engagements

"@davidrconway Definitely not. However if I was less good at this I would have finished and submitted it and gotten it published"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:46Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"This is a succinct takeaway from my experiment as well: "Generation speed Verification speed. This is a problem in equilibrium. It has always been the opposite. Papers took months or years to generate. Internal and peer review only days." That said here are some early impressions: [--]. Early on Claude Code out of the box it was bad. Hallucination heaven. Even fabricated data. [--]. We figured out various guardrails that clearly help. Harder to spot the errors now. Diversity of models maybe helps too. (e.g. Grok That said here are some early impressions: [--]. Early on Claude Code out of the box it"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:54Z 30.9K followers, 11.9K engagements

"One of the side effects of well-meaning progressive policies was creating a system where everyone is constantly lying to get ahead. Lying about your fake 1/64th Native American identity to get into college about your fake disability so you can have a dog in your dorm about your sick grandma so you can get out of midterms about the token representation on your "diverse" board about your "joint venture" with a black-owned business so you can get a government contract about your fake daycare about your "home office" so you can get a tax writeoff about your kid's ADHD so they get extra time and"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:02Z 30.9K followers, 57.9K engagements

"A useful point here but both David and I are clear that we dont think these are good papers we think they are hard to quickly distinguish from good papers which poses a challenge to the current journal system. And many worse papers do get published less so at the top but yes in some journals that have some respect. More and more people are saying https://t.co/6XDo6Wta9Z More and more people are saying https://t.co/6XDo6Wta9Z"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:34Z 30.9K followers, 33.6K engagements

"@MTabarrok brew install --cask claude then just keep typing "ok do the next thing""
X Link 2026-02-14T02:56Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"While many markets do implicitly wager on people's life and death (annuities health insurance life insurance) we do not want cases where a market participant can make a shit ton of money by causing someone's death. Life insurance policies are legally governed by insurable interestyou can't take out a policy on a person unless you have a legally recognized financial interest in their continued life and the insured consents. So this polymarket contract would be illegal under that set of rules perhaps they can get away with it since they are not a life insurer but we should change that. Sorry to"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:24Z 30.9K followers, 134.4K engagements

"@ATabarrok Can you give me a hint"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:34Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@p_ganong This will raise the returns to presenting at the elite conferences but only to the sessions which allow a lot of challenging questions"
X Link 2026-02-15T23:48Z 30.9K followers, [---] engagements

"What gets you into a top college is being above some moderate competence bar and then from like 8th grade or earlier organizing your life around getting into a top college. Very few 8th graders have this level of motivation so we mainly select on parent characteristics"
X Link 2024-07-02T14:59Z 30.9K followers, 230.8K engagements

"RCT reducing leisure screen time among adults and adolescents to 3 hours per week. Compliance was high they exchanged smartphones for flip phones. Results: - [--] mins more physical activity per day - Better mood and well-being (adults) - Fewer behavioral issues (kids)"
X Link 2024-07-14T15:36Z 30.9K followers, 214.3K engagements

"My preliminary takeaway from the 3-year cash transfer study: Poverty is a lot more than just not having enough cash. Many factors interact to keep people in a bad equilibrium. Once you're in that equilibrium cash transfers alone don't change your steady state. 1/N"
X Link 2024-07-23T02:26Z 30.9K followers, 70.6K engagements

"What we need is the Cheesecake Factory but for landlords"
X Link 2024-07-31T11:19Z 30.9K followers, 50.6K engagements

"@kaseyklimes 6:1 in favor based on the replies so far if we can get to n=30 it will be data"
X Link 2024-07-31T16:42Z 30.9K followers, 44.6K engagements

"This is work with @thesamasher @eni_iljazi (PhD student at Wharton) and Catriona Farquharson (predoc at Princeton). You can read the full paper here: 4/N https://paulnovosad.com/pdf/nobel-prizes.pdf https://paulnovosad.com/pdf/nobel-prizes.pdf"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 182.1K engagements

"In economic history the best measure of a kids childhood is often the fathers occupation. It predicts SES and is often the only thing you can find. Moms occupations are more sparse in the historical record and many are housewives which doesnt tell you much about SES. 7/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 152.9K engagements

"They are not universally from elite families take Daniel Tsui the child of illiterate farmers from Henan China. He somehow made it to Augustana College in Illinois the University of Chicago and Bell Labs where he made Nobel-worthy discoveries in quantum physics. 9/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 133K engagements

"Women face a lot of barriers in the sciences especially in our sample cohorts (18351975). Only 28/735 laureates are women. Female laureates come from more elite backgrounds suggesting family advantages made up for some of the barriers faced by women in the sciences. 15/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 318.9K engagements

"A couple of ideas: [--]. People work harder when their outcomes arent guaranteed [--]. We get better allocation of talent when there is a lot of economic churn Causation isnt correlation so put this one into food for thought. 21/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 68K engagements

"In the global income distribution the average Nobel laureate comes from a family at the 94th percentile implying that 90% of global scientific talent is not achieving its potential. And this measure has barely improved at all in [---] years. 25/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 68.6K engagements

"Stephen Jay Goulds concern is as important today as it was in [----]. Brilliant people with the potential to make world-changing scientific discoveries are living and dying in poverty without ever getting the chance to nurture their talents. 26/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 65.4K engagements

"We address genetics bias in prize committees contributions to society outside of the sciences among others. Ill post another thread on some of these in a bit. 28/27"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:03Z 30.9K followers, 47.7K engagements

"The Latinx polling paper is excellent but reaches the wrong conclusion. It has almost nothing to do with queerphobia Latino voters just dont like being called LatinX. Politicians using the term "Latinx" lose [--] PERCENTAGE POINTS vote share. A 🧵👇🏻 1/N https://x.com/mfrmarcel/status/1850899401088377035 Amanda and I think we should still be using gender-inclusive language. The problem for Democrats is that segments of the Latino community that are queerphobic and would otherwise support them are less likely to do so if queerness is made salient through inclusive language 7/n"
X Link 2024-10-31T14:26Z 30.9K followers, 433.5K engagements

"Live-tweeting @karthik_econ's presentation on state capacity at NEUDC. Simple story of India's economy: - Top 10% drives demand and growth - Next 30-40% in service sector jobs supporting the top 10% - remaining 50% left out supported by welfare programs Seems suboptimal 1/n"
X Link 2024-11-02T15:08Z 30.9K followers, 293.3K engagements

"Frustrating to see progressives now lie and claim they didnt turn against tech. Ive been reading tech columnists since [----] and there has been a very systematic shift. Used to be tech enthusiast supernerds now its all This innovation has very problematic implications"
X Link 2024-11-30T01:23Z 30.9K followers, 19.1K engagements

"Thank god I was really worried about the anesthesiologists I've heard many of them live paycheck-to-paycheck. A lot of people don't seem to be understanding what has happened here. BREAKING: Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield reverses decision to put a time limit on anesthesia https://t.co/2uevQJ0NAO BREAKING: Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield reverses decision to put a time limit on anesthesia https://t.co/2uevQJ0NAO"
X Link 2024-12-06T03:56Z 30.9K followers, 80.3K engagements

"Fascinating paper on where [----] global elites went to college. Billionaires CEOs heads of state central bankers etc. In a word: Harvard. Fully 10% of global elites went to Harvard. Elite US schools are over-represented (23% IvyPlus) but nobody comes close to Harvard. 🧵"
X Link 2024-12-06T19:06Z 30.9K followers, 1.5M engagements

"Efficiency = Output over costs. DOGE so far has shown no understanding of efficiency. If you save [--] billion dollars and bring cancer research to a halt you have not improved efficiency"
X Link 2025-02-08T02:58Z 30.9K followers, 171.1K engagements

"to me the greatest sadness of all is the banality of most people's lives i'll spend time with my non-elite friends and it's clear that their lives are devoid of heroism and lore they lock in/clock in but they fight no great battles they dash no great foes they drop by a to me the greatest sadness of all is the banality of most people's lives i'll spend time with my non-elite friends and it's clear that their lives are devoid of heroism and lore they lock in/clock in but they fight no great battles they dash no great foes they drop by a"
X Link 2025-03-07T15:44Z 30.9K followers, 303.5K engagements

"It's true that left culture became too dominant at universities. If you think abducting people off the streets of Somerville because they wrote op-eds is an appropriate response then the internet has broken your brain"
X Link 2025-03-27T04:20Z 30.9K followers, 46.8K engagements

"Her mistake was bringing lab materials without proper declaration requested by her Harvard PI. Arbitrary detention like this is how autocracies operate its also why autocracies have terrible economic results. We are killing the golden goose. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/science/russian-scientist-ice-detained-harvard.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/science/russian-scientist-ice-detained-harvard.html"
X Link 2025-04-12T17:47Z 30.9K followers, 142.4K engagements

"@IvanaKrumi Its pretty clear youve never done PhD level recruiting before"
X Link 2025-04-13T01:52Z 30.9K followers, 78.6K engagements

"Deep meritocracy is fundamentally unstable because elites can't tolerate their kids losing. They will engage in destructive status competition with each other and also just directly corrupt the institutions. 1/"
X Link 2025-06-04T19:48Z 30.9K followers, 469.3K engagements

"Mamdani is a young charismatic flagbearer for some of the worst ideas in American politics. Unfortunately the only way to teach people these ideas are bad will be to eventually elect one of them. Even then they will say "socialism was not really tried" People have done such a good job sanewashing the DSA via repetition Mamdani is young charismatic and the flagbearer for a faction with some of the worst ideas in American politics Destroy gifted education but with a cheeky grin so they know youre a good guy People have done such a good job sanewashing the DSA via repetition Mamdani is young"
X Link 2025-06-24T17:00Z 30.9K followers, 31.5K engagements

"The most essential stabilizing feature of a society is a status hierarchy that young peopleespecially young mencan reliably climb by following a clear and pro-social set of rules. 1/"
X Link 2025-07-22T15:26Z 30.9K followers, 237K engagements

"When corporate landlords like Blackstone enter a suburban neighborhood rents fall and segregation declines because minority renters can now afford to live there. New York City is so evil that if you walk into a random big building to do a mass shooting theres decent odds youll hit the person in charge of buying up single family homes for blackstone New York City is so evil that if you walk into a random big building to do a mass shooting theres decent odds youll hit the person in charge of buying up single family homes for blackstone"
X Link 2025-07-30T15:56Z 30.9K followers, 194.1K engagements

"AI leaders should spend more energy reckoning with this fact. A generation of kids is losing their best opportunity to learn how to read write and think and they will pay the price for their whole lives. Its not every student. Some students are becoming more empowered and knowledgeable then ever. But there is a big big big chunk of kids who are GPTing through everything and will learn far less in high school and college and our entire society will suffer that lost human capital"
X Link 2025-08-30T22:58Z 30.9K followers, 234.2K engagements

"LessWrong: 100000+ long-form posts discussing whether AIs should ever leave air-gapped servers Albania: makes GPT3.5 a government minister VIDEO: Albania's new AI-generated minister makes first address to parliament The world's first AI government minister defended her role as "not here to replace people but to help them". 'Diella' was appointed by Prime Minister Edi Rama last week https://t.co/2dFh082DLz VIDEO: Albania's new AI-generated minister makes first address to parliament The world's first AI government minister defended her role as "not here to replace people but to help them"."
X Link 2025-09-19T22:56Z 30.9K followers, 78.1K engagements

"Incredible cynicism and betrayal of Reagan by his own foundation. If anyone actually clicked through to listen to the real address they would see he says exactly what the Ontario ad claims Listen to President Reagan's unedited remarks here: https://t.co/1gQUcbR4eZ https://t.co/iqmjSuypp0 Listen to President Reagan's unedited remarks here: https://t.co/1gQUcbR4eZ https://t.co/iqmjSuypp0"
X Link 2025-10-24T04:19Z 30.9K followers, 80.4K engagements

"Comms job candidate engineers a 4M view tweet about looking for a job. Boss move. Hi friends. I need a job Ideally in Washington D.C. or remote. My dream is to work in policy or comms at a think tank that is center-left or center-right. Im interested in economic opportunity energy AI finance gender and criminal justice. But I can learn anything https://t.co/0yc9Q4ujqD Hi friends. I need a job Ideally in Washington D.C. or remote. My dream is to work in policy or comms at a think tank that is center-left or center-right. Im interested in economic opportunity energy AI finance gender and"
X Link 2025-10-29T03:56Z 30.9K followers, 154.6K engagements

"A lot of Trump policy can be summarized as identifying prisoners' dilemmas where we have somehow coordinated on a cooperative equilibrium and switching us over to defect-defect. Once everyone has finished with tit for tat gerrymandering and it doesnt make that much of a difference maybe we can agree on a national anti-gerrymandering rule to bring back some cross-cutting regional dynamics to congress Once everyone has finished with tit for tat gerrymandering and it doesnt make that much of a difference maybe we can agree on a national anti-gerrymandering rule to bring back some cross-cutting"
X Link 2025-11-11T13:40Z 30.9K followers, 103.7K engagements

"Dartmouth's student government held an open "no confidence" vote on the president's handling of campus protests. It passed (no confidence) 13-2 (with [--] abstensions). Then they repeated with a secret ballot. It failed 8-9 (2 abstensions). 1/2 https://www.thedartmouth.com/article/2024/05/dsg-fails-vote-of-no-confidence-in-college-leadership https://www.thedartmouth.com/article/2024/05/dsg-fails-vote-of-no-confidence-in-college-leadership"
X Link 2024-05-07T18:42Z 30.9K followers, 1.3M engagements

"Here's the core idea: If talent is uniformly distributed and opportunity is equal then Nobelists will come out of the woodwork from random families & places. If every laureate is born rich or in the West or has a teacher mom it means a lot of our geniuses are being missed"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 336.2K engagements

"For every laureate we identified the predicted education and income rank of their fathers. (We found data on 715/739 laureates in the sciences). Looks like we can reject that uniform distribution idea about half come from the top 5%. 8/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 155.8K engagements

"By every measure Nobel laureates born in the United States come from less elite backgrounds than laureates born elsewhere. 17/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 101.4K engagements

"More surprisingly we get more laureates in places with more downward mobility. When there is lots of churn and children from rich families are not guaranteed to be rich we produce more top scientists. 19/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 77.4K engagements

""The world is better understood as misaligned incentives rather than coordinated oppression" What if this was the core thing we taught in Intro Econ instead of how to calculate the stupid deadweight loss triangles Also strong +1 to this point https://t.co/Ncljpb8xQN Also strong +1 to this point https://t.co/Ncljpb8xQN"
X Link 2025-08-13T11:26Z 30.9K followers, 104.8K engagements

"What an utterly idiotic headline"
X Link 2021-04-02T15:13Z 30.9K followers, [---] engagements

"We are letting our allies down. Exporting 100% of our AstraZeneca is a no-brainer at this point"
X Link 2021-04-24T12:47Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"I knew scientists were territorial but this is next level. Remember Katalin Karik the unsung hero of mRNA vaccines Her advisor Robert Suhadolnik tried to have her deported when she accepted a competing offer in another lab"
X Link 2021-11-15T22:24Z 30.9K followers, 12.7K engagements

"More on Karik all from the excellent so far A Shot To Save The World by @gzuckerman"
X Link 2021-11-15T22:27Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"What a trajectory"
X Link 2021-11-16T02:58Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Our study on excess mortality in India is out: Excess deaths close to [--] million. [--]. Far higher than official totals. [--]. Implies global COVID death count off by [--] million (and more given undercounting elsewhere) Short 🧵 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm5154 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm5154"
X Link 2022-01-06T20:12Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Reasons you are probably overestimating the probability that Twitter dies: [--]. Platforms die when their audience leaves. Twitter audience is bigger than ever. [--]. Platforms survive longer than you think. MySpace Tumblr Flickr even AOL are still alive. 1/N"
X Link 2022-11-18T14:12Z 30.9K followers, [----] engagements

"A 🧵 on our work on US mortality change just out in AEJ:App with @thesamasher and @charlierafkin. We ask: how concentrated is the U.S. pre-Covid mortality crisis Is everyone doing a little worse or is a small subset doing catastrophically worse The graph is a spoiler 1/N"
X Link 2022-12-16T19:28Z 30.9K followers, 514.1K engagements

"Behavioral econ is cool but once we admitted people are irrational it seems wrong to end up with 50x more work on "we must help people with tiny nudges" vs. "Oh shit firms must be taking advantage of people like crazy with this stuff.""
X Link 2023-01-23T03:21Z 30.9K followers, 261.7K engagements

"🤷🤷♀New data: SHRUG [--] is out @devdatalab has been working on this for two years a HUGE update to Indias coolest data platform: [--]. Maps of every [----] town and village with ids [--]. All data at every geography (villages districts ACs etc). 🧵1/N http://devdatalab.org/shrug http://devdatalab.org/shrug"
X Link 2023-06-01T13:53Z 30.9K followers, 460.1K engagements

"🚨Please stop calling this brain drain. When there are high overseas returns to education more people get educated. Think about all the folk working their asses off for this exam and then staying in India. High returns for migrants are good they build human capital. 1/N Out of the [----] top scorers on the entrance exam for the Indian Institutes of Technology 36% have migrated eight years later (primarily to the US). Out of the top [---] 62%. Out of the top [--] 90%. https://t.co/bEEe4kWz2k Out of the [----] top scorers on the entrance exam for the Indian Institutes of Technology 36% have"
X Link 2023-06-08T01:41Z 30.9K followers, 336.3K engagements

"📣 New working paper on residential segregation in India. Weve been working for [--] years on this. [--] facts about residential segregation in India from new administrative data. The situation is not great 🧵 1/N"
X Link 2023-06-15T15:57Z 30.9K followers, 1.6M engagements

"Fact 1: India is very segregated. Urban places are about as segregated as rural places for Scheduled Castes. For Muslims segregation is worse in cities. The graph shows the Dissimilarity Index for cities and subdistricts"
X Link 2023-06-15T15:57Z 30.9K followers, 103.7K engagements

"I've lately reviewed many papers that feel p-hacked. Some clues: results implausibly large operate at the wrong unit of observation too perfect etc A couple of specific author teams are doing this very systematically. I think this is a canary in the coal mine. 🧵 1/N"
X Link 2023-10-01T19:55Z 30.9K followers, 376.6K engagements

"Re-upping this story about how Katalin Karik's advisor threatened to have her deported if she moved labs. I knew scientists were territorial but this is next level. Remember Katalin Karik the unsung hero of mRNA vaccines Her advisor Robert Suhadolnik tried to have her deported when she accepted a competing offer in another lab. https://t.co/WBONIzMKig I knew scientists were territorial but this is next level. Remember Katalin Karik the unsung hero of mRNA vaccines Her advisor Robert Suhadolnik tried to have her deported when she accepted a competing offer in another lab."
X Link 2023-10-03T14:47Z 30.9K followers, 282.5K engagements

"RCT introduction of a pollution market in Surat Gujarat. Pollution fell by 2030% and efficiently gains came from the firms who could cut pollution most effectively. Mortality benefits are 25 times costs. An incredible state/research collaboration. 1/2"
X Link 2024-09-06T00:24Z 30.9K followers, 90.8K engagements

"What kind of childhood makes a top scientist Is it enough to have all the right traits (brilliance grit etc) or do you need the right family too And why should we care A 🧵 on our paper on the Nobel Laureates. A teaser: the income distribution of the laureates' fathers.1/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 3.9M engagements

"Why we should care: science is arguably the most important force for human progress maybe by a lot. More discoveries better lives for all of us. If theres a kid who could make a foundational discovery we want to make sure they dont spend their lives in the mines. 2/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 216.6K engagements

"So how is our society doing at finding and supporting the potential scientists who can improve this precarious existence Our idea was to look at the childhoods of the Nobel Laureates. Virtually all of them reached the pinnacle of discovery where did they come from 3/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 196.4K engagements

"We researched the childhood background of every laureate in the sciences. We excluded Peace and Literature since those committees sometimes intentionally select people who were born poor doesnt happen in the sciences. (We included econ cue the not-a-real-Nobel truthers) 6/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:00Z 30.9K followers, 166.1K engagements

"Or Har Gobind Khorana the child of a village taxation clerk the only literate family in a little village in Punjab. He made it to Liverpool Cambridge and finally Wisconsin where he did foundational work on how DNA is translated into proteins. 10/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 146.7K engagements

"The father occupation that is the most common for a Nobel Laureate: business owner Some large businesses but also a lot of small ones. Doctors professors engineers are also common and more disproportionate relative their population share. 11/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 153.9K engagements

"Only 3% of laureates grew up on farms like this years Medicine winner Victor Ambros (also from Hanover & Dartmouth woot woot). Other notable laureates from farming families: David Card Frederick Banting Alexander Fleming. 12/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 114.7K engagements

"Since we have [---] years of prize data we can ask whether we have gotten any better at creating access for brilliant people from less elite backgrounds. These graphs show the father income and education ranks over time. 13/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 123.3K engagements

"The average ed rank of a Nobel laureate father was [--] in [----] and is [--] today. For the optimists: were creating opportunity for twice as many people as we used to For the pessimists: it will be another [---] years before we get to the benchmark equal opportunity rank of 50"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 108.5K engagements

"Which world region has been the best at nurturing top scientists from ordinary families We thought it might be Eastern Europe with its Soviet mass education. But in fact it is the land of opportunity 16/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 100.6K engagements

"We dug deeper into those U.S. born laureates by linking their birth places to the Opportunity Atlas. Not surprisingly we get more laureates from non-elite families in places with more upward mobility. (We also get more laureates overall from these places) 18/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 78.1K engagements

"But it's consistent with other theory and evidence that increasing access to opportunity makes a better society for everyone not just the poor people getting more opportunities. 22/N https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937945 https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937945"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 68.8K engagements

"One last thing. All our work so far is looking only at fathers occupations NOT at birth countries. But the child of a tailor in India has far fewer life opportunities than the child of a tailor in the U.S. especially in earlier birth cohorts. 23/N"
X Link 2024-10-09T16:01Z 30.9K followers, 58.5K engagements

"A new India-China fact (to me): The Chinese state prioritized primary education over secondary/tertiary while the Indian state did the opposite. Chinese primary enrollment rate passed India in [----] secondary [----] and tertiary only in 2000"
X Link 2024-11-02T13:17Z 30.9K followers, 542.7K engagements

"Striking differences in what kind of bachelors degree people are getting from the Chinese and Indian education systems. India: Humanities Law and Business dominate Science and Engineering are only recent. China: Engineering Engineering and Engineering"
X Link 2024-11-02T13:24Z 30.9K followers, 129.7K engagements

"Wild study: [--]. Desired # of kids is highly unstable and goes up as you get older [--]. But people think their desires are stable [--]. When recalling you claim it's what you always wanted Takeaway: It's hard to make rational decisions about # of kids ht: @Ingar30"
X Link 2024-11-05T14:13Z 30.9K followers, 102.2K engagements

"To me this is a pretty clear sign that global leadership is very unmeritocratic. To a first order going to an elite college is a function of choices made by kids' parents not the kids themselves. Talented parents may have more talented kids but there's no way the talent distribution is this skewed given mean reversion across generations. And education is probably better at elite schools but it is not [--] times better at Harvard than it is at Yale or MIT. And the same for talent. It's much more likely that this is about networks. You rub shoulders with the children of billionaires and corporate"
X Link 2024-12-06T19:06Z 30.9K followers, 49.1K engagements

"Storytelling matters in econ too"
X Link 2025-01-05T19:12Z 30.9K followers, 74.7K engagements

"The critiques of abundance are really really weak"
X Link 2025-03-21T07:10Z 30.9K followers, 34.3K engagements

"This is fucked up man. We made this country great by welcoming people like this"
X Link 2025-04-12T17:44Z 30.9K followers, 2.4M engagements

"@IvanaKrumi Reading how people describe this researcher shes someone you come across once every five years if youre lucky"
X Link 2025-04-13T01:54Z 30.9K followers, 34.1K engagements

"@MandrakeRa2782 The punishment needs to fit the crime. She had lab materials that they'd repeatedly shipped legally. It's an administrative error. Friend you don't want to live in a country where people get sent to Louisiana for things like this soon enough it will be one of your friends"
X Link 2025-04-13T11:20Z 30.9K followers, 47.5K engagements

"The replies to this feel like a psy-op. Americans are divided on immigration but every reply guy is thrilled to see immigrants suffer and always the 4chan sass. I dont believe Americans are so willfully cruel. Were being manipulated on here. Arrived in the US legally after making an appointment via the CBP One app to request temporary protected status. Got a job stayed out of trouble. Now in the torture prison just because he was there to grab. Arrived in the US legally after making an appointment via the CBP One app to request temporary protected status. Got a job stayed out of trouble. Now"
X Link 2025-04-14T23:00Z 30.9K followers, 55.7K engagements

"Well this is just fascinating. Arranged marriage rates plummeting with development everywhere in the world except South Asia. From Gabriela Rubio's paper via @_alice_evans"
X Link 2025-05-21T18:04Z 30.9K followers, 123.4K engagements

"Anyway non-elites don't stand a chance in a pure performance-based merit system because elite parental investments have such high returns. In practice we don't get meritocracy anyway. 2/"
X Link 2025-06-04T19:48Z 30.9K followers, 31.7K engagements

"A more stable system would have more limited meritocracy to keep downward mobility in check. We keep some competition between elites to get the best people into the most important positions but not much risk of losing status. 3/"
X Link 2025-06-04T19:48Z 30.9K followers, 31.2K engagements

"It is thus much better to have a society where the young have low status and the old high than a society where one group has high status at all ages and another is always low. Everyone is willing to do their time. But if you don't see a path up you will tear things down. 2/"
X Link 2025-07-22T15:26Z 30.9K followers, 19.8K engagements

"@captgouda24 No Nick no"
X Link 2025-09-30T22:42Z 30.9K followers, 177.4K engagements

"In the 1980s Nestl was moving into infant formula markets in low-income countries. With each new market entry moms switched from breastfeeding to unclean water and infant mortality increased substantially; [------] excess deaths per year. 1/n"
X Link 2025-10-14T19:47Z 30.9K followers, 592.5K engagements

"What happens when online job applicants start using LLMs It ain't good. [--]. Pre-LLM cover letter quality predicts your work quality and a good cover gets you a job [--]. LLMs wipe out the signal and employer demand falls [--]. Model suggests high ability workers lose the most 1/n"
X Link 2025-11-04T19:41Z 30.9K followers, 853.9K engagements

"Econ seminar culture is built on the assumption that the audience knows something that the speaker doesn't and that the speaker values that information. A very important thing the audience knows and the speaker doesn't: Is the speaker making any sense at all If nobody has any idea what you are saying it's very helpful to be interrupted on slide [--]. If you leave confusion for too long you will lose your audience entirely. To publish a paper / nail a presentation you need to nail the elevator pitch perfectly. In a paper this is the introduction in a presentation it's the preview. If you get 50"
X Link 2025-11-11T16:06Z 30.9K followers, 211.7K engagements

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