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@michaelxpettis Avatar @michaelxpettis Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis posts on X about china, deflation, beijing, investment the most. They currently have XXXXXXX followers and 4465 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

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Social category influence finance #3456 countries travel destinations agencies

Social topic influence china #540, deflation #6, beijing #136, investment #1125, electrical #74, machinery #73, debt, countries, latin, $6753t #749

Top Social Posts #


Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"3/7 It is worth noting that on a year-on-year basis consumer goods were down XXX% in September consumer services were up XXX% and core inflation was up 1.0%. Much of the deflation in other words was concentrated in tradable goods which shouldn't be much of a surprise"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T04:41Z 180.3K followers, XXX engagements

"@Euunul That's silly. Austerity is good for creditors and bad for workers and businesses. Just because it was bad for developing economies doesn't mean it should be good for developed economies"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-03T05:27Z 180.1K followers, XXX engagements

"2/8 This is also the impression I got from my meetings last week. There is a sense that Beijing overplayed its hand perhaps because until China is able to boost domestic demand (something that will be extremely difficult) it is still very vulnerable to a trade contraction"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-14T15:16Z 180.3K followers, 2573 engagements

"7/7 To the extent that it is in other manufacturing sectors this will mostly shift price-cutting from the involuted manufacturing sectors to the non-involuted sectors in which case we are likely to see deflationary pressures revive perhaps next year"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T04:41Z 180.3K followers, 11.3K engagements

"McNair argues that because of low transportation costs soybean prices in any country that produces soybeans are likely to be a function of global supply and global demand and not a function of changes in purchases by any particular country. That seems reasonable to me although I know nothing about technical details in the soybean market that might make this claim wrong. It would be easy to see if there is a difference between the global price of Brazilian and Argentine versus American soybeans"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-07T18:12Z 180.3K followers, 36.9K engagements

"The irony is that you both cherry-pick your evidence and confuse causation with correlation. In the 1990s I started my career trading the debt of the XX restructuring countries and it was obvious that every country in Latin America Asia and Eastern Europe that experienced massive inflows of petrodollars experienced the same debt problems that you blame on ISI whether or not those countries implemented ISI policies. I would say yours is a classic correlation-implies-causation fallacy except I suspect it is more likely to be ideological"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-03T13:36Z 180.1K followers, 4055 engagements

"4/9 So which is better to have excess supply or to have excess demand The historical precedents are pretty clear: in a global trade conflict the persistent surplus countries have always been more vulnerable to a contraction in trade than the persistent deficit countries"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T08:42Z 180.3K followers, 14.6K engagements

"5/7 was to meet the GDP target Beijing engineered a sharp expansion in manufacturing capacity in a world already suffering from excess. This led to explosive growth in capacity in the preferred industries into which much of the additional investment flowed"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T04:41Z 180.3K followers, 1184 engagements

"1/9 Yang Weimin former deputy head of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs: The main reason for weak consumer demand in China is fundamentally a matter of income. He's right of course"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-09-26T05:22Z 180.1K followers, 20.8K engagements

"Yicai: "In the nine months ended Aug. XX trade rose X% to CNY33.61 trillion. Exports gained XXX% to CNY19.95 trillion while imports dipped XXX% to CNY13.66 trillion. Measured in US dollars exports were up XXX% at USD2.8 trillion and imports down XXX% at USD1.9 trillion.""
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T04:48Z 180.3K followers, 11.6K engagements

"1/9 WSJ: "According to the people close to Beijings decision-making process Xis hard-line strategy is based on the belief that Trump will ultimately fold and offer concessions rather than deploy Washingtons own significant leverage." via @WSJ"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T08:42Z 180.3K followers, 226.1K engagements

"4/7 So is deflation behind us It depends on how China balances the fight against involution. Remember that involution was a consequence of Beijing's response to the sharp drop in property investment after 2021-22. Because it couldn't let overall investment growth decline if it"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T04:41Z 180.3K followers, 1017 engagements

"1/2 Yicai: " China's NDRC together with the Ministry of Finance has released the fourth and final tranche of this year's special treasury bonds earmarked for consumer-goods trade-ins.""
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-01T05:53Z 180.3K followers, 10.8K engagements

"3/9 But if you were to rewrite the sentence as: "With hiring slowing domestic demand stagnant and prices declining many economists say China isnt positioned to absorb another major trade fight with US" it would no less true"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T08:42Z 180.3K followers, 22.8K engagements

"5/9 One very obvious example of course is the very different impacts the global trade contraction during the 1930s had on the US the world's leading trade surplus nation at the time and the UK one of the world's leading trade deficit nations"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T08:42Z 180.3K followers, 12.1K engagements

"1/3 Very interesting essay by Graeme Thompson that places the intellectual underpinnings of the current global trade regime in an historical perspective. By the end of the 19th Century Thompson writes "the long-standing hegemony of. @ga_thomps"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-02T10:22Z 180.3K followers, 21.3K engagements

"1/4 Yicai: "China has released new growth stabilization measures for XX major industries: steel nonferrous metals petrochemical chemicals building material machinery automobile electrical equipment light industry and electronic information.""
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-13T00:50Z 180.3K followers, 42K engagements

"I havent posted much this week because Ive been in NY and DC meeting with a number of people to discuss China and trade. Not surprisingly there was a lot of interest especially this week"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-10T13:26Z 180.3K followers, 81.6K engagements

"2/7 PPI was also flat month on month for the second month in a row. Prices were still down year on year with CPI at -XXX% and PPI at -XXX% but with the fight against involution some of the worst price cutting seems to be behind us"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T04:41Z 180.3K followers, 1051 engagements

"Despite a raft of stimulus measures according to Caixin "During the National Day holiday from Oct. X to X new home subscriptions in XX key cities tumbled XX% from a year earlier and XX% from September" after posting their first monthly and annual sales gains this year in September"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-13T00:52Z 180.3K followers, 45.5K engagements

"For those who want to know more about rare earths Ed Conway is always very helpful in discussing the materials we don't often think about but which are vital for modern life. As part of his report he notes that the US dominates the production of ultra-high-purity quartz (vital for the production of silicon chips) even more than China dominates the production of rare earths setting up what may be a potential stand-off"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-14T09:43Z 180.3K followers, 76K engagements

"1/4 Yicai: "China is expected to achieve GDP growth of XXX percent in 2025 and XXX percent in 2026 up from the previously forecasted XXX percent for both years in April according to the World Bank.""
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-14T04:24Z 180.3K followers, 14.8K engagements

"Caixin: "The industry is looking to shift to a buyer-funded model under which investors rather than issuers would pay. This comes as investors are railing against flattering reports and inflated credit ratings.""
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-03T04:58Z 180.3K followers, 13.9K engagements

"1/8 Eduardo Porter argues in this FT piece that Latin America's import substitution industrialization (ISI) in the 1960s and 1970s "ended in a massive debt crisis that ushered in a period of economic decline known across the region as the lost decade.""
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-02T07:14Z 180.3K followers, 83.4K engagements

"1/8 WSJ: "President Trump is trying to publicly de-escalate tensions with China to soothe markets while privately keeping up pressure on Beijinga difficult balancing act that is being closely watched by Wall Street." via @WSJ"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-14T15:16Z 180.3K followers, 20.7K engagements

"6/7 By now cutting back on investment in involuted industries Beijing must decide where else to increase investment in order to achieve the GDP growth target. To the extent that it is in infrastructure. this should boost domestic demand and keep deflation at bay for a few years"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T04:41Z 180.3K followers, 7565 engagements

"1/6 Good news for the Chinese stock markets. According to Yicai "Chinas new household deposits contracted in July and August from the year before while deposits from non-bank financial institutions surged in a sign that people have been moving"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-09-16T04:36Z 180.3K followers, 15.7K engagements

"1/7 In a sign perhaps that the fight against involution has been successful CPI prices in China were stable for the third month in a row up XXX% month on month in September. This is still well below the X% target but it is better than more deflation"
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-15T04:41Z 180.3K followers, 11.9K engagements

"1/2 Interesting article by Lian Ping director of the China Chief Economist Forum who argues that "China continues to face risks and perils on multiple fronts all of which threaten to undermine its economic growth prospects.""
X Link @michaelxpettis 2025-10-14T09:12Z 180.3K followers, 104.1K engagements